Replacing Bell!

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Yes Haley saved Ben's career!! So did Bell with a easy dump off to him that ended in a positive gain. People think you can get a rb off the street and plug him in and won't miss a beat. You better get one who is talented like Bell and is great at pass catching. Otherwise this will be Ben's last year without Bell!

[smokin3000gt]

[BlackAndGold]

Bell won't be going anywhere this year.

[SteelerFanInStl]

Bell won't be going anywhere this year.

Agreed. The Steelers are working on an extension for him and if they don't get that worked out, he'll get tagged again.

[AtlantaDan]

Agreed. The Steelers are working on an extension for him and if they don't get that worked out, he'll get tagged again.

Bouchette (who is not a fan of a long term deal) has an article in the P-G today where he concedes the Steelers apparently intend to do a deal.

Ed B. walks through how the $$ could be structured.

Say they were willing to give Bell an average of $15 million over four years or $60 million total. It could break down like this: $24 million to sign, $1 million salary this year and subsequent salaries of $10 million, $12 million, $13 million.

The $24 million bonus would count $6 million annually against the cap over each of the four years. So his cap this year would be $7 million — that $6 million from the bonus plus the $1 million salary.

Bingo. That is, if they want to pay him that much. It not only would give him an average of $15 million annually, but virtually guarantee him $35 million in the first two years. If they could come to terms on, say, a four-year deal that averages $13-14 million, so much the better....


Is he worth it? It may not matter what anyone else thinks; they seem intent on keeping him.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201802160146

[Mojouw]

OK. OK. This is going to get laughed out of the room, but hear me out. The main argument against paying Bell what he wants is that no RB gets paid that much. But what about taking that argument and flipping it on its head?

1. Bell is the first of a wave of RBs that are leading a resurgence in 3 down running and passing weapons across the league (Hunt, David Johnson, Elliot, at least 2 rookies from this class, etc)
2. All "elite" RBs that sign after Bell will be getting 12-16 million on average.

Whatever, I tried, but I still have a hard time swallowing that Bell is going to be worth all that cash.

[Born2Steel]

Plus....Bell cashed in on one $12M franchise tag on top of the long term deal. So that comes to, $37M in 2 years? Then another $35M over the next 3 years? Looks a lot like the offer last year doesn't it?

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Bouchette (who is not a fan of a long term deal) has an article in the P-G today where he concedes the Steelers apparently intend to do a deal.

Ed B. walks through how the $$ could be structured.

Say they were willing to give Bell an average of $15 million over four years or $60 million total. It could break down like this: $24 million to sign, $1 million salary this year and subsequent salaries of $10 million, $12 million, $13 million.

The $24 million bonus would count $6 million annually against the cap over each of the four years. So his cap this year would be $7 million — that $6 million from the bonus plus the $1 million salary.

Bingo. That is, if they want to pay him that much. It not only would give him an average of $15 million annually, but virtually guarantee him $35 million in the first two years. If they could come to terms on, say, a four-year deal that averages $13-14 million, so much the better....


Is he worth it? It may not matter what anyone else thinks; they seem intent on keeping him.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201802160146

Why they seem intent on keeping him is like I said. Steelers realize keeping Bell is beneficial to Ben's health.

[ALLD]

Keep Bell and get rid of the dead wood on defense and coaching staff. Start thinking more about football and less about entertainment and cool platitudes on the field & during press conferences. Figure out how to win in the postseason instead of just showing up year-after-year.

[GBMelBlount]

Very risky to sign bell long term at those prices.

First, he is NOT worth that money (4 ypc).

Second, he is on the back end of his career.

Third, he is injury and suspension prone

Finally, it WILL cost us elsewhere.

[DesertSteel]

Ben was a hall of famer before Bell and he will be one if he leaves. Stating otherwise is a joke.

[Craic]

Very risky to sign bell long term at those prices.

First, he is NOT worth that money (4 ypc).

Second, he is on the back end of his career.

Third, he is injury and suspension prone

Finally, it WILL cost us elsewhere.

I'm not sure it's all that bad. First, the 4 ypc average doesn't tell the whole story. Often last year Bell was making 2 and 3 yards after getting hit in the backfield. He was almost always falling forward, too. Moreover, his value falls just as much on his ability to play WR or to be the safety valve that Ben can trust.

Second, statistically, you're right. But if we're going by statistical averages, then even with Bell's dropoff, he'll stay a 1000+ yard back until his final year of the contact. And even then, he'll be close to a thousand yards. Close enough that he might hit it (again, if we're using statistical averages for a players age/dropoff in production. There's a thread around here where I go through it year by year).

Third, I wouldn't call him injury prone any more than I'd call Jerome Bettis injury prone. The injuries Bell did have at the beginning of his career were freak injuries that one dirty player kept causing. As for suspensions, he's been suspended twice in five years, the last one coming at the beginning of the 2016 season. We're now in 2018 and the kid is now a twenty-six year old man (as of tomorrow).

Finally, yes, it will cost us, but It'll cost us more not to have him. Ben's on his last contract (I'm including a possible year extension in that statement). Our SB window is closing, and we have almost all the pieces to get there. Losing one of them would be bad idea. Go ahead and put us in salary cap hell for two or three years starting in 2021 or 2022 if it'll give us a good chance of getting another Lombardi or two.

[Mojouw]

Very risky to sign bell long term at those prices.

First, he is NOT worth that money (4 ypc).

Second, he is on the back end of his career.

Third, he is injury and suspension prone

Finally, it WILL cost us elsewhere.

Where? Free agents? Players on the roster? General uneasiness? Not doubting your claim, just trying to understand what you see as the specific opportunity cost of giving Bell big cap dollars.

One could be...signing Bell to a big $$ contract means that Martavis Bryant is not a Steeler after the 2018 season. Okay. Totally reasonable. Another is that after another year of injuries and only above average production Joe Haden at $11+ million dollars is a luxury the Steelers can not afford with Bell's large contract.

Now I have no idea if either of those statements are true or will be true, but is that the line of thinking or just a general sense of foreboding?

[Shoes]

New's flash! Le'Veon Bell isn't going to change the Steeler way of doing business.

Steelers WILL NOT give in to Bell's high demands of last year, you can take that to the bank. While theses player like to talk about football being a business and act as they hold the keys to the city, the Rooneys are much more business minded and have been doing this for a very long time.

I do think the Steelers would like to keep him and I think they will offer him a fair wage, they did last year! I think they also sense that while Bell speaks with forked tongue and says he wants to remain a Steeler they know he has his sniffer to the 4 winds. I'm sure his smoking buddy, LeGarrette and his 3 SB are dancing in his head.

Offer him a fair wage, if he takes it, good. If he doesn't, tag him and draft a RB. I don't think the Steeler are spending as much time on Bell's contract as we are. They have their plan and they will stick to it.

[DesertSteel]

Very risky to sign bell long term at those prices.

First, he is NOT worth that money (4 ypc).

Second, he is on the back end of his career.

Third, he is injury and suspension prone

Finally, it WILL cost us elsewhere.

Pay the man!

[Six Rings]

Yes Haley saved Ben's career!! So did Bell with a easy dump off to him that ended in a positive gain. People think you can get a rb off the street and plug him in and won't miss a beat. You better get one who is talented like Bell and is great at pass catching. Otherwise this will be Ben's last year without Bell!

Send him to Cleveland for Barkely ( 1st or 4th pick ). Steelers get a younger, more explosive back, and save 10 million + on the cap. No brainer!

[Mojouw]

Send him to Cleveland for Barkely ( 1st or 4th pick ). Steelers get a younger, more explosive back, and save 10 million + on the cap. No brainer!

That literally makes no sense.

[DesertSteel]

That literally makes no sense.

For Cleveland.

[Mojouw]

For Cleveland.

Exactly. It is like when people used to argue that Pouncey wasn’t really that good and we should unload him for a second or first round pick. WTF incentive does any team have to trade for Bell is all he is is an overpriced malcontent? If he is worth the 1st or 4th overall pick all by his lonesome than he is actually worth 12-15 million per year.

[GBMelBlount]

Where? Free agents? Players on the roster? General uneasiness? Not doubting your claim, just trying to understand what you see as the specific opportunity cost of giving Bell big cap dollars.

One could be...signing Bell to a big $$ contract means that Martavis Bryant is not a Steeler after the 2018 season. Okay. Totally reasonable. Another is that after another year of injuries and only above average production Joe Haden at $11+ million dollars is a luxury the Steelers can not afford with Bell's large contract.

Now I have no idea if either of those statements are true or will be true, but is that the line of thinking or just a general sense of foreboding?

Due to the cap, by grossly overpaying Bell it costs us elsewhere. I don't know what else to say on the opportunity cost. It is implicit.

He averages 4 ypc which is less than 20 other running backs. In other words, there are 20 other guys who if you gave the ball to them as many times as Bell they would arguably gain MORE yards.

So let's be generous and pay him $5 million for his his pedestrian ypc?

As a receiver, Bell ranked 55th with 655 yards. His ypc is relatively low...

So let's be generous and pay him what, 3-4 million?

So being fair, that comes out to what, 8 - 9 million?

I am trying to be open-minded but any way you look at the numbers I have no clue why people think he is worth 12 - 15 million?

Plus we are paying Brown an incredibly huge paycheck which he IS worth imo and we are paying what, 65%-70% of our payroll to our offense already?

Wouldn't it be nice to use the money to upgrade the defense so we don't give up 50 points per game to average QB's?

Invest the money we don't waste by insanely overpaying Bell, on the defense, then spread the ball to juju and bryant more and give the ball to conner (who has a better ypc) and the new running back we draft.

That's my two cents!

[Six Rings]

Exactly. It is like when people used to argue that Pouncey wasn’t really that good and we should unload him for a second or first round pick. WTF incentive does any team have to trade for Bell is all he is is an overpriced malcontent? If he is worth the 1st or 4th overall pick all by his lonesome than he is actually worth 12-15 million per year.

If you are the Browns, a potential franchise QB drafted and Bell would give a reason for hope.


Bell isn't worth the tag. He's a distraction who runs behind a great OL, flanked by a HOF QB, and amazing skills players. It's easy to run the ball here. So why does he have are big plays and a scant 4.0 years per rushing attempt.


When Bell was out for a while, a player picked up for cheap in Williams did just as well running the ball. You can look it up. Our look at the teams who win the super bowl. They don't; spend a lot of money on their backs. They have one back to run, another to catch.


I'd rather trade Bell for the top back in the draft who is more explosive, much less expensive, does;t troll on social media, and isn't one flunked drug test away from an eight-game suspension.

[Born2Steel]

If you are the Browns, a potential franchise QB drafted and Bell would give a reason for hope.


Bell isn't worth the tag. He's a distraction who runs behind a great OL, flanked by a HOF QB, and amazing skills players. It's easy to run the ball here. So why does he have are big plays and a scant 4.0 years per rushing attempt.


When Bell was out for a while, a player picked up for cheap in Williams did just as well running the ball. You can look it up. Our look at the teams who win the super bowl. They don't; spend a lot of money on their backs. They have one back to run, another to catch.


I'd rather trade Bell for the top back in the draft who is more explosive, much less expensive, does;t troll on social media, and isn't one flunked drug test away from an eight-game suspension.

That OL also blocked for Dwyer, and Redman, and Toussaint, and Davis, and Watson, and Archer, and Ridley, and probably some others I have forgotten. None of them set the league on fire like bell has. Also, that random RB "Williams" holds nearly every rushing record for Carolina I believe, also holds quite a few NCAA rushing records. That was not just some chump RB off the streets. If replacing Bell for another RB that will save the Steelers $5M+, then I need a name and a realistic plan. Just sign another RB is not a valid plan because we have had other RBs here that DID NOT WORK.

Stats only show part of the production. Just as with penalties, turn overs, sacks, and even scores, most of the time the most critical part of those plays is the timing during the game, the game situation in which they occurred. You simply must count the intangible plays Bell makes. The 2-3 tough yards on 3rd down to make a first. Those mean as much as a 15-20 yard run, just don't look as nice on a stat sheet. When Ben has to check down and finds Bell open for a 5 yard gain instead of throwing it away, or trying to fit it, or taking a sack, those plays have added value that Bell provides. All RBs are not equal. Bell was tagged for $12M, how can you now say he's worth less than that same $12M? When Bell's production has been carried over his entire career, some of you really think you can just add in another guy and get those same results? That blows my mind. Yes, there is a chance, but an even better chance of getting another (insert previous Steeler RB name here).

[pczach]

That OL also blocked for Dwyer, and Redman, and Toussaint, and Davis, and Watson, and Archer, and Ridley, and probably some others I have forgotten. None of them set the league on fire like bell has. Also, that random RB "Williams" holds nearly every rushing record for Carolina I believe, also holds quite a few NCAA rushing records. That was not just some chump RB off the streets. If replacing Bell for another RB that will save the Steelers $5M+, then I need a name and a realistic plan. Just sign another RB is not a valid plan because we have had other RBs here that DID NOT WORK.

Stats only show part of the production. Just as with penalties, turn overs, sacks, and even scores, most of the time the most critical part of those plays is the timing during the game, the game situation in which they occurred. You simply must count the intangible plays Bell makes. The 2-3 tough yards on 3rd down to make a first. Those mean as much as a 15-20 yard run, just don't look as nice on a stat sheet. When Ben has to check down and finds Bell open for a 5 yard gain instead of throwing it away, or trying to fit it, or taking a sack, those plays have added value that Bell provides. All RBs are not equal. Bell was tagged for $12M, how can you now say he's worth less than that same $12M? When Bell's production has been carried over his entire career, some of you really think you can just add in another guy and get those same results? That blows my mind. Yes, there is a chance, but an even better chance of getting another (insert previous Steeler RB name here).

The other thing is that everyone wants to say how good this offensive line is, but in short yardage situations, they have regressed when it comes to running the ball. They have become more of a finesse OL. They rarely just blow people off the ball, which is required in straight ahead run blocking in short yardage situations.

Unless you're running toss sweeps on 4th down and an inch with 10 defenders at the line of scrimmage.....

[pczach]

One more thing. I've been tough on Bell because of his antics and the money he is demanding. The one thing nobody is mentioning about him is how he performs in the playoffs. He's been lights out at crunch time. He averages 5.2 yards per carry and 106 rushing yards per game in 4 playoff games. When you combine that with his receiving threat, he has been a stud.

Here are his career playoff stats. https://www.pro-football-reference.c...B/BellLe00.htm

[Mojouw]

If you are the Browns, a potential franchise QB drafted and Bell would give a reason for hope.


Bell isn't worth the tag. He's a distraction who runs behind a great OL, flanked by a HOF QB, and amazing skills players. It's easy to run the ball here. So why does he have are big plays and a scant 4.0 years per rushing attempt.


When Bell was out for a while, a player picked up for cheap in Williams did just as well running the ball. You can look it up. Our look at the teams who win the super bowl. They don't; spend a lot of money on their backs. They have one back to run, another to catch.


I'd rather trade Bell for the top back in the draft who is more explosive, much less expensive, does;t troll on social media, and isn't one flunked drug test away from an eight-game suspension.

If all that is true, why would the Browns do the deal? Because it works in Madden? How can you simultaneously argue that Bell is not worth 12-15 million per and that he is worth a top 4 draft pick?

Barkley on a cheap rookie deal would be awesome but the Browns have no incentive to make that deal. Would need to add 2019 first rounder at least.

[GBMelBlount]

Practically any random starting running back in the NFL right now should average 4.0 ypc behind our top 5 offensive line.

12 - 15 million per year for average ypc and average yards per reception behind a top 5 line?

No thank you.

That OL also blocked for Dwyer, and Redman, and Toussaint, and Davis, and Watson, and Archer, and Ridley, and probably some others I have forgotten. None of them set the league on fire like bell has. Also, that random RB "Williams" holds nearly every rushing record for Carolina I believe, also holds quite a few NCAA rushing records. That was not just some chump RB off the streets. If replacing Bell for another RB that will save the Steelers $5M+, then I need a name and a realistic plan. Just sign another RB is not a valid plan because we have had other RBs here that DID NOT WORK.

Stats only show part of the production. Just as with penalties, turn overs, sacks, and even scores, most of the time the most critical part of those plays is the timing during the game, the game situation in which they occurred. You simply must count the intangible plays Bell makes. The 2-3 tough yards on 3rd down to make a first. Those mean as much as a 15-20 yard run, just don't look as nice on a stat sheet. When Ben has to check down and finds Bell open for a 5 yard gain instead of throwing it away, or trying to fit it, or taking a sack, those plays have added value that Bell provides. All RBs are not equal. Bell was tagged for $12M, how can you now say he's worth less than that same $12M? When Bell's production has been carried over his entire career, some of you really think you can just add in another guy and get those same results? That blows my mind. Yes, there is a chance, but an even better chance of getting another (insert previous Steeler RB name here).

[Born2Steel]

Practically any random starting running back in the NFL right now should average 4.0 ypc behind our top 5 offensive line.

12 - 15 million per year for average ypc and average yards per reception behind a top 5 line?

No thank you.

It's that "ANY RANDOM" that we disagree on. It keeps getting proven time and again that not all players are equal, yet "ANY RANDOM" keeps popping up. Does "ANY RANDOM" have a name by chance?

[Neversatisfied]

I like the idea of trading Bell in the draft to move up.
This draft has a few very promising QBs and the Steelers need the next franchise guy. Let's not fool ourselves into thinking Ben will be around until 2020, it's time to groom the next QB.
Secondly, Connor is a very good back, pair him him a speed back with good hands out in the draft and you've got potential for success. Bell is a very good back but his attitude sucks and a coach like Tomlin needs guys to keep themselves in check.

[Mojouw]

Here are the options the Steelers have to replace Bell and a short commentary on each:

1. James Conner - a shredded knee late in the year and an almost total inability to pass block. Lack of an off-season and practice time will not help this. Knee is likely not going to be ready for start of the season.
2. Touissant - a replacement level back at best. Does nothing all that well other than know the playbook.
3. Ridley - also a replacement level guy with a bucket-load of injuries to carry around. Technically would need resigned.
4. Draft pick - this seems to be everyone's favorite answer. Yet everyone wants an ILB, a FS, an OLB, and another ILB. Only have so many draft picks. IF Steelers want a solid Bell replacement, it is likely Kerryon Johnson in the 2nd round. If he blows up at the combine, make that the 1st round.
5. Free Agent - another popular answer. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/running-back/ That's the list. So....Jeremy Hill?

If we are going to have a conversation, lets at least have a realistic one. Conner's injury really changed the equation. There is no "built in" safety net this season. Also, I don't think Conner is really all that good. I know he is a great story and everyone is rooting for him. But what little time he got on the field demonstrated that he is still a total zero in the passing game. Looks uncomfortable catching the ball and is the kinda pass blocker that gets your QB killed and causes turnovers - both of which happened repeatedly in his rookie year. Could he get better? Sure...but not without practice time...which his injury prevents.

[Born2Steel]

All you have to do is make a list of ALL the players that played RB since Bell entered the league. Now, narrow that list down to ALL the RBs that have produced 1900 yards from scrimmage in each of those seasons. Curious to see ALL the names on that list.

Now explain how "a draft pick" or "any random" or "get a guy" method actually works. Having a conversation on how much Bell should make, and how much Bell is worth, are 2 different conversations.