If Bell does not return as a Steeler in 2018

[Born2Steel]

Have to have an actual plan in place if Bell should decide to retire, or sit out. OR...If Bell is simply allowed to walk, which is just crazy talk, IMHO.

Keep in mind Conner is the ONLY RB the Steelers currently have under contract. So we need a minimum of 2.

One play that immediately jumps out to ME is more use of the FB. A 2 back backfield with Conner and Nix makes a little sense with the TE position as weak as it is. I'm not a fan of re-signing Toussaint since he has brought next to nothing to the offense. Ridley is a maybe for a backup RB role. That still leaves a gaping hole in offensive output in terms of rushing yards.

There are some free agents that had productive 2017's stats-wise, but nothing close to what Bell would be leaving behind.

There are some exceptional possibilities in this year's draft. But there are no guarantees, as we very well know. And considering that the majority of them only averaged 1 reception/game, hard to judge what they may/may not bring in the passing game.

So, the premise is Bell does not return in 2018. What's the Steeler's plan moving forward? Try to use actual info, not just "draft a guy", or "find someone in FA". Put some real thought and work into it. GO STEELERS!

[Born2Steel]

This is my favorite RB in the 2018 draft as of today Feb. 3rd.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45hhblS8Wqg

Ronald Jones of USC. Brings power and quickness. Has that long ball speed that Bell doesn't have. Looks to have some decent receiving skills. Don't get to see much from a blocker perspective on highlight films, but if he comes with the same attitude as JuJu, I think he can become good at it. Thoughts and comments?

[steelreserve]

Honestly, we're in a really shitty position without Bell. We have other positions that need to be addressed urgently and that's where I would want the high picks to go, not RB.

We can get by with a Conner-Ridley-random-FA committee, but probably to the tune of being like 23rd in the league in rushing with 200 or 300 fewer receiving yards and less explosiveness.

Bell will play next year, though. He may be stupid, but money and respeck is what motivates him. After all the big talk and bravado is over, there is no worse move than sitting out; you will have the least possible amount of both money and respeck that you can get.

[DesertSteel]

Free agency is not where you get running backs. They come in the draft. Kamara, Hunt, etc. I'd be happy with a guy that will be a 1-2 punch with Conner. If Conner can beat cancer he can learn to pass block.

[Mojouw]

Free agency is not where you get running backs. They come in the draft. Kamara, Hunt, etc. I'd be happy with a guy that will be a 1-2 punch with Conner. If Conner can beat cancer he can learn to pass block.

Well considering he had a whole off season and season to try and fail to learn how, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Hope Conner turns out to be the dominant RB many saw going into the draft. But I'm skeptical. Late season knee injury likely means his 2018 is a wash. He will play but likely not break out.

[DesertSteel]

Well considering he had a whole off season and season to try and fail to learn how, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Hope Conner turns out to be the dominant RB many saw going into the draft. But I'm skeptical. Late season knee injury likely means his 2018 is a wash. He will play but likely not break out.

Definitely need a guy to carry the load while he’s recovering and rounding into form. I’d go round 2 on one.

[ShoeHorn]

They just need to get the deal done with Bell and call it a day. We are in our Super Bowl window right now. It’s not the time to roll the dice on a mid round RB when we already have Leveon Freaking Bell. Just get the deal done.

[Born2Steel]

I love it DS, "Just get a guy". That's a plan right there.

[DesertSteel]

I love it DS, "Just get a guy". That's a plan right there.

Thanks for agreeing.

[Born2Steel]

Thanks for agreeing.

Oh, I definitely agree. If only you knew about what.

[DesertSteel]

Oh, I definitely agree. If only you knew about what.

If only I cared

[Lady Steel]

I love it DS, "Just get a guy". That's a plan right there.

That's something I would say. Like, just go out and get somebody off the street. I mean, just about everyone can run, right? Go, Willie, Go!

[DesertSteel]

That's something I would say. Like, just go out and get somebody off the street. I mean, just about everyone can run, right? Go, Willie, Go!

A second round pick is not a guy off the street.

[Mojouw]

There are between 20-30 RBs picked most drafts. Here are the last 5 years: http://pfref.com/tiny/mxWKk

Two things standout to me:
1. RB is in the middle of a resurgence. Teams have started picking them early and often again. Backs like Bell, Elliot, Gurley, David Johnson have demostrated that you can have a 3 down RB dominate in a modern offense. Something that a few years ago many believed was no longer possible.

2. RB value is ALL over the map. David Johnson went after Duke Johnson. Marlon Mack was billed as a great prospect and so far he isn't as good as Elijah McGuire who went later.

So if the Steelers really did want to draft to replace Bell, talking a Round 1-2 pick (RBs are rising in value across the league) and maybe needing to take more than one guy - sorta like the Packers last year. All I'm saying is that now your draft looks locked in to needing to pick a RB and ILB in some combination in the first two rounds. Not a fan of having roster needs force your hand on draft day. But there are lots of other considerations as well...

[Born2Steel]

There are between 20-30 RBs picked most drafts. Here are the last 5 years: http://pfref.com/tiny/mxWKk

Two things standout to me:
1. RB is in the middle of a resurgence. Teams have started picking them early and often again. Backs like Bell, Elliot, Gurley, David Johnson have demostrated that you can have a 3 down RB dominate in a modern offense. Something that a few years ago many believed was no longer possible.

2. RB value is ALL over the map. David Johnson went after Duke Johnson. Marlon Mack was billed as a great prospect and so far he isn't as good as Elijah McGuire who went later.

So if the Steelers really did want to draft to replace Bell, talking a Round 1-2 pick (RBs are rising in value across the league) and maybe needing to take more than one guy - sorta like the Packers last year. All I'm saying is that now your draft looks locked in to needing to pick a RB and ILB in some combination in the first two rounds. Not a fan of having roster needs force your hand on draft day. But there are lots of other considerations as well...

The main concern that I have with just letting Bell walk is that his production walks with him.(Dwindling or not, 1900+yards in 15 games) Where do we get that back? Only RB on contract is Conner. Toussaint 'AIN'T' going to get them, Ridley(???), DWill(???). Honestly it has to come from the draft. What makes this impossible is the huge gaping hole in the middle of our defense now. Plus, that move puts our offense one injury away from crash and burn. This draft has to fix our defense.

If Bell does not return, however, I really like Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, and Akrum Wadley. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds respectively.

[Mojouw]

The main concern that I have with just letting Bell walk is that his production walks with him.(Dwindling or not, 1900+yards in 15 games) Where do we get that back? Only RB on contract is Conner. Toussaint 'AIN'T' going to get them, Ridley(???), DWill(???). Honestly it has to come from the draft. What makes this impossible is the huge gaping hole in the middle of our defense now. Plus, that move puts our offense one injury away from crash and burn. This draft has to fix our defense.

If Bell does not return, however, I really like Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, and Akrum Wadley. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds respectively.

The Steelers really are in a bind here. Bell's contract is up right at a point that RBs are seeing a resurgence in value across the league. Suddenly the position has gone from eyebrow raising when Bell and Lacy were both drafted in the second round to back to being a significant feature of the 1st and 2nd round of the draft for multiple teams. A new wave of RBs has emerged that are not forcing teams to choose between a RB who can run between the tackles and a RB who can catch the ball in space. These guys, Bell was the opening salvo of this wave, can do it all. Which makes Bell and those like him really valuable. BUT Bell already has how many carries/touches and injuries piled up? More than a few. However, the cost to "replace" him, while cheaper in cap dollars, might be prohibitive in draft resources.

Bottom line, everyone acts like the Steelers can just fall out of bed on one day during the draft and snatch up a RB to replace Bell like it is as easy as checking "Get Milk" off the grocery list. The Vikings spent several draft picks and a season or so trying to figure out what came after AP. The Jags took multiple high draft picks to get it right for them at RB. The 'Skins take someone in the top 3 rounds every year it hasn't worked. The Packers started with Lacy and then took someone almost every year until last season, what did they draft, like 3 guys? The Seahawks still can't find the answer despite committing significant resources every year for the past 2 off-seasons to finding a back. The Ravens fell ass backwards into Collins after having an annual search at the position since the Ray Rice troubles. The Bengals drafted Hill, Bernard, and Mixon -- all with high picks.

The Steelers are very fortunate that most of the time the team faces a big decision, it is a tough one. If Bell leaves, you likely solve some problems and create others. That is fine. That's life. But you damn sure better get it right because you know what the baseline is with Bell. "Replacement Back" is just a lottery ticket.

[DesertSteel]

The Steelers really are in a bind here. Bell's contract is up right at a point that RBs are seeing a resurgence in value across the league. Suddenly the position has gone from eyebrow raising when Bell and Lacy were both drafted in the second round to back to being a significant feature of the 1st and 2nd round of the draft for multiple teams. A new wave of RBs has emerged that are not forcing teams to choose between a RB who can run between the tackles and a RB who can catch the ball in space. These guys, Bell was the opening salvo of this wave, can do it all. Which makes Bell and those like him really valuable. BUT Bell already has how many carries/touches and injuries piled up? More than a few. However, the cost to "replace" him, while cheaper in cap dollars, might be prohibitive in draft resources.

Bottom line, everyone acts like the Steelers can just fall out of bed on one day during the draft and snatch up a RB to replace Bell like it is as easy as checking "Get Milk" off the grocery list. The Vikings spent several draft picks and a season or so trying to figure out what came after AP. The Jags took multiple high draft picks to get it right for them at RB. The 'Skins take someone in the top 3 rounds every year it hasn't worked. The Packers started with Lacy and then took someone almost every year until last season, what did they draft, like 3 guys? The Seahawks still can't find the answer despite committing significant resources every year for the past 2 off-seasons to finding a back. The Ravens fell ass backwards into Collins after having an annual search at the position since the Ray Rice troubles. The Bengals drafted Hill, Bernard, and Mixon -- all with high picks.

The Steelers are very fortunate that most of the time the team faces a big decision, it is a tough one. If Bell leaves, you likely solve some problems and create others. That is fine. That's life. But you damn sure better get it right because you know what the baseline is with Bell. "Replacement Back" is just a lottery ticket.

But it’s not just fans who think RBs are replaceable, it’s NFL teams as well. That’s how the NFL has operated for the past 20 years. And there’s some good reasons for it. There is a shifting of that trend but not enough to pay a guy both RB and WR money. Especially a guy going into his 6th year with an already heavy workload and baggage to boot.

[Mojouw]

But it’s not just fans who think RBs are replaceable, it’s NFL teams as well. That’s how the NFL has operated for the past 20 years. And there’s some good reasons for it. There is a shifting of that trend but not enough to pay a guy both RB and WR money. Especially a guy going into his 6th year with an already heavy workload and baggage to boot.

I never said you have to or should pay Bell all the money. Its getting hard to keep track of what has been said where across all the threads that are essentially yelling about Bell.

If you want to get an "elite" (there is that darn word again) RB in the past 3 years, you have to get them in the first 3 rounds of the draft. The days of pulling guys off the street or UDFA and plugging them in and getting 1000 yards and 3rd down stuff is over. You can do that with a committee to some degree still. An 800-1000 yard rusher and a Corey Clement or McKinnon like pass game back.

Since Bell's draft year - one where almost everyone howled at how early in the draft both Bell and Lacy were taken - RBs have seen a steady increase in draft and cap priority across the NFL. The Steelers actually bought low in drafting Bell. Bell comes out this year -- 1st round value gets put on him.

Conner also got tagged with the too early designation when he was drafted. But he was part of a run on RBs and likely wouldn't have been there when Steelers picked next.

All I am really trying to say is that everyone wants to get into the worth of Bell and peg it at far less than $15 million + per year. I agree with that and can understand and accept those arguments. But I think there is not a total amount of honesty about what it may cost in draft resources to replace Bell's production - especially with Conner coming back from a ripped up knee. Using other team's search for RBs as a benchmark, it could take multiple early round draft picks over several drafts to get it done. Does that mean the Steelers should feel obligated to pay Bell all of the cap $$$'s? Of course not, but to just blithely state that a team can walk out of the draft with a high end 3 down RB all day every day is perhaps a bit of an overstatement?

[DesertSteel]

TBH, I really like the model that the Saints use with two backs. I'd invest a 2nd rounder at the position and pair them with Conner. A lot of people are projecting Bell's future performance based on past results. I just don't think it's gonna happen for three more years. IMO he already slightly declined in 2017. I'd be happy with tagging him other than the fact it's gonna cause disruption and distraction. Either way, I'll support whatever decision the team makes. It's their money. But fixing the defense, not keeping Bell, is what's gonna get us to another Super Bowl.

[Mojouw]

TBH, I really like the model that the Saints use with two backs. I'd invest a 2nd rounder at the position and pair them with Conner. A lot of people are projecting Bell's future performance based on past results. I just don't think it's gonna happen for three more years. IMO he already slightly declined in 2017. I'd be happy with tagging him other than the fact it's gonna cause disruption and distraction. Either way, I'll support whatever decision the team makes. It's their money. But fixing the defense, not keeping Bell, is what's gonna get us to another Super Bowl.

You raise some great points. I have only a few counters. And it really isn't about right or wrong - there is literally no way to know without a time machine!

1. I am against spending a top 3 round pick on a RB. Needs on the defense are glaring and only seem solvable with draft picks. High ones at that.
2. Saints are example of one amazing RB duo. Pats have a good multi-headed monster. As do the Eagles. Rest of the league is in the process of ditching committee backfields and going to one workhorse RB (everything that goes around comes around!). What side of that trend is best to be on? Maybe a multi-RB solution gets at a "market inefficiency"? Maybe the fact that everyone is running after a single player solution means that is the way to go? WTF do I know?
3. The paying current contract $$ for past production is the biggest problem with the NFL in my opinion. All players know they have to get the largest second contract possible, because there is almost certainly not going to be another one. I think in Bell's case the best solution is to pay him a ton of money in the first 2 years (buy out the franchise tag and bet he has a season beyond that in him) then structure the rest as team friendly incentive laden option years. Now, why Bell would sign that deal, I have no idea. But for the team that would be the ideal scenario.

[DesertSteel]

Counters to the counters:

1. Money saved from not signing Bell can be used on the D in FA to make up for using a 2-3 rounder.
2. Most of the one man bell cows are either still on their rookie deal or are signed reasonably.
3. RBs are SOL when it comes to cashing in on the 2nd contract. Bell wants to change that and I’m sure someone will accommodate him. I’ll be watching his performance in 2019-20 to see the results.

I appreciate your insights mojouw.

[Mojouw]

Counters to the counters:

1. Money saved from not signing Bell can be used on the D in FA to make up for using a 2-3 rounder.
2. Most of the one man bell cows are either still on their rookie deal or are signed reasonably.
3. RBs are SOL when it comes to cashing in on the 2nd contract. Bell wants to change that and I’m sure someone will accommodate him. I’ll be watching his performance in 2019-20 to see the results.

I appreciate your insights mojouw.

I think it is a good conversation all around and I really think you have a critical point about Bell's usage and wear and tear.

The only thing I really worry about is that the Steelers get Bell's cap money (say $14 million) and then look around in FA and there really isn't anyone that fills a hole. I mean if Joyner or Burnett actually hits the open market, then that would be a great way to solve the safety puzzle. Especially Joyner. I mean I honestly think you put him back there with Davis and your secondary is done for 3 years. But are the Rams really going to even let Joyner sniff the open market? I kinda doubt it.

The ILBs I have seen projected to be available are all just slightly different and maybe a bit better versions of VW. So like Timmons of 2 years ago at best. Not the kind of rocks you build your defense around. Can certainly upgrade the depth if someone wants to be a back-up in Pittsburgh rather than a starter somewhere else...

Edge rushers available at this point are a whole bunch of "Nope".

That is my real concern and it always is with cap room. It does a team no good if there isn't anyone to worthwhile to spend it on.

If leaving Bell at the altar would mean that Zach Brown and/or Joyner wear a Steelers uniform next season, I would start to be really interested...but I just don't see that happening. I see FA's more on the order of Moats and Wilcox as realistic expectations and those types can be signed w/out discarding Bell if the front office gets a bit creative with the cap.

[DesertSteel]

I think you get your ILB in the 1st round and the Safety in either round 2 or 3 depending on where the RB is taken. Further, I think they ride with Dupree one last year before they cut bait. I think they'll go to FA for quality depth at ILB.

I think this is a 13-3 team with Bell and a 12-4 team without him. Both of those predictions are predicated on plugging the hole in the middle.

The Bell contract will be the talk of the offseason. I'd say it's 40/60 that he's in the roster in 2018.

[Born2Steel]

You raise some great points. I have only a few counters. And it really isn't about right or wrong - there is literally no way to know without a time machine!

1. I am against spending a top 3 round pick on a RB. Needs on the defense are glaring and only seem solvable with draft picks. High ones at that.
2. Saints are example of one amazing RB duo. Pats have a good multi-headed monster. As do the Eagles. Rest of the league is in the process of ditching committee backfields and going to one workhorse RB (everything that goes around comes around!). What side of that trend is best to be on? Maybe a multi-RB solution gets at a "market inefficiency"? Maybe the fact that everyone is running after a single player solution means that is the way to go? WTF do I know?
3. The paying current contract $$ for past production is the biggest problem with the NFL in my opinion. All players know they have to get the largest second contract possible, because there is almost certainly not going to be another one. I think in Bell's case the best solution is to pay him a ton of money in the first 2 years (buy out the franchise tag and bet he has a season beyond that in him) then structure the rest as team friendly incentive laden option years. Now, why Bell would sign that deal, I have no idea. But for the team that would be the ideal scenario.

The 2 RB system has worked ever since I can remember. If using the Saints as an example, they won the SB in 2009 using Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush. This past season it was Ingram, who is not a rookie, and Kamara. Kamara was not expected to be as successful as he was, so that was a bit of a surprise. Trying to equate this to the Steelers' situation is a bit tough though. Instead of adding Kamara with an established RB, it would be adding a rookie unknown with another rookie mostly unknown coming off knee surgery. I will not say it can't/won't work, but it's a much bigger gamble than taking a chance on Bell's durability. There are a few RBs in the early rounds of this draft that I would be interested in if we do go that route. I am just not a fan of that approach. I vote to go with the known production and add a rookie with that, then there is a better, more educated choice to make for 2019.

[Craic]

I think you get your ILB in the 1st round and the Safety in either round 2 or 3 depending on where the RB is taken. Further, I think they ride with Dupree one last year before they cut bait. I think they'll go to FA for quality depth at ILB.

I think this is a 13-3 team with Bell and a 12-4 team without him. Both of those predictions are predicated on plugging the hole in the middle.

The Bell contract will be the talk of the offseason. I'd say it's 40/60 that he's in the roster in 2018.

Not sure I'd go 12-4 without. Bell's running and pass catching helps us win two or three games a year. I'd call it a 11-5 team, maybe 10-6. Now, if we picked up a rookie RB that was a solid contributor and was just a tad above average, then I'd agree with you we'd sit at 13-3.

[DesertSteel]

Not sure I'd go 12-4 without. Bell's running and pass catching helps us win two or three games a year. I'd call it a 11-5 team, maybe 10-6. Now, if we picked up a rookie RB that was a solid contributor and was just a tad above average, then I'd agree with you we'd sit at 13-3.

Yeah I mean finding a replacement that is above the line.

[cubanstogie]

I really hope they don't break the bank on him. I loved him at Michigan State and loved it when they drafted him. RB's are a dime a dozen. History of RB's predict his production will drop in next couple of years. There are only a select few who dominate for 8-10 years. He is replaceable. If the guy had Walter Paytons attitude I would say pay him what he wants, but I question his loyalty and professionalism. Steelers should be able to pick up a quality RB who can step in and start in the 3rd or 4th round. RB by committee is what seems to be working lately, putting all eggs in one basket and the guy gets hurt and your phucked.

[steelreserve]

The 2 RB system has worked ever since I can remember. If using the Saints as an example, they won the SB in 2009 using Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush. This past season it was Ingram, who is not a rookie, and Kamara. Kamara was not expected to be as successful as he was, so that was a bit of a surprise. Trying to equate this to the Steelers' situation is a bit tough though. Instead of adding Kamara with an established RB, it would be adding a rookie unknown with another rookie mostly unknown coming off knee surgery. I will not say it can't/won't work, but it's a much bigger gamble than taking a chance on Bell's durability. There are a few RBs in the early rounds of this draft that I would be interested in if we do go that route. I am just not a fan of that approach. I vote to go with the known production and add a rookie with that, then there is a better, more educated choice to make for 2019.

A two-back system works if you have two backs who are good, or at least one who is good and one who does something differently from him so they complement each other. It doesn't just work with any two backs; that's how you get Redman and Dwyer. Which unfortunately is about where we'd be if you take away Bell.

I think you kind of have to keep Bell whether it's a franchise tag (which he WILL play under, let's not fool ourselves) or a longer-term deal, because you have too many other holes to fill to go throwing money and draft picks at the RB position.

Ideally we'd sign him to a deal that keeps his cap hit fairly low in the first year and gives us an out after three, GET TIMMONS BACK so our ILB group is at least acceptable - no it won't be a dynamite combo, but at least it won't be a glaring weakness that gets eaten alive. Then use our top picks on the best safety or OLB that's available in whichever order it falls out, then a hope-for-the-future RB in the middle rounds, and an ILB prospect wherever we can fit one in. Free agents of the type we're looking for to solve a problem cost a minimum of $9-10 million, and we just don't have the money to do that this year so I doubt it happens.

The biggest problem there is Bell's contract, of course, since it seems like he is more inclined to fight us tooth and nail on everything, so either the cap hit or the years are not going to be in our favor.

Actually, if we signed Bell to a five-year deal that didn't give us an out, it might not be the worst thing in the world ... his production might drop off but it wouln't be zero, and we could draft a top RB in about two or three years for a one-two punch, or more likely when that happens Bell will bitch and moan until he's traded. We would also have more cap space to absorb the end of that deal, because we'll likely have a quarterback on the rookie wage scale, sad to say.

[Born2Steel]

"A two-back system works if you have two backs who are good, or at least one who is good and one who does something differently from him so they complement each other. It doesn't just work with any two backs; that's how you get Redman and Dwyer. Which unfortunately is about where we'd be if you take away Bell.

I think you kind of have to keep Bell whether it's a franchise tag (which he WILL play under, let's not fool ourselves) or a longer-term deal, because you have too many other holes to fill to go throwing money and draft picks at the RB position."


I can agree pretty much 100% with this. From where we sit right now, if Bell leaves, we are screwed at the RB position. We don't even know if Conner comes back at 100% of what he was before knee surgery. I just think putting the team in a position to have to rely on Conner and an unknown rookie draft pick is a bad move. Particularly bad considering the mess the defense is in right now. Safeties and LBs, almost to the man, needs an upgrade. Who from our safety and LB corps are we not looking to upgrade this offseason besides Watt? Add in that the FA market is incredibly weak, and we already know if these guys can play or not, it becomes a situation of every draft pick will need to be better than at least our current backups. Now some want to add in finding a gem of a RB to THAT scenario, when we already have Leveon Bell.
But...I'm not the guy paying these players so how much they make doesn't concern me as much as it does others. Until there is a name to go with the idea of a RB to replace what he does on the field, to me he's worth as much as he can get.

[hawaiiansteeler]

The Bell contract will be the talk of the offseason. I'd say it's 40/60 that he's in the roster in 2018.

I'll say it's 100/0 that Bell will be a Steeler next year.