AD,
Thanks. That's a good visual. I still have a couple of questions about the chart, however. One is whether this is only rush yards or all-purpose yards. The second is whether we can divide between backs who get a lot of all-purpose yards vs. those who are primarily focused on rushing yards. It may be that backs with good receiving skills stick around longer.
On another note, if Bell turns 26 next month, then according to this chart, his next two years will be peak years, and his two years after that will still be quality years. He's rushed an average of 1280 yards over the last two years, If that's true, and at age 25 the yardage decreases, then next year (year 1 of a potential contract), he should rush for something close to 1400 yards, and the year after that (year 2), he should rush for almost 1500 yards. In the third year of his contract, he should rush for right around 1300 yards, and in year four, for around 1100+ yards. In year five, he'd finally drop to 900 yards.
So, if this chart is correct and if Bell follows the norm, the question to the Steelers is: how much is a four year 1000+ yard rusher and 5 year 900+ yard rusher who is also the number 2 receiver (and could be a number 1 receiver on probably the bottom third of NFL teams) worth? I don't think it's the numbers he's asking for, but I do think he's worth significantly more than what some here are thinking. Should he be the highest paid running back in the NFL? Absolutely. But he shouldn't blow the top off of the market. I'd increase the top by 10 to 15 percent. So, right now (unless there's been other big signings I don't know about), Devonta Freeman signed a contract for 41.25 mill over five years with 22 mill in guaranteed money. I'd increase that to 47.5 with 23 in guaranteed money and a 2-4 mill tied up in roster bonuses for his last three years of a four-year contract based on those numbers. That is right at 12 million a year, which is what we offered him last time. That also tells me that the contract previously offered him was a tad too low just looking at the numbers. Yet, when adding in possible year long suspensions for any future drug violations and having to prove durability, I think their offer was fair overall.
There IS a break point. I think the same offer sheet still applies, minus one year of value in guaranteed money. So basically, the FO does not budge on what they were willing to do. My understanding is that Bell has been told he will have to sign the tag, THEN the Steelers will come to the table to negotiate a new contract.
Either way, it is my understanding that Bell will be franchise tagged. If no new contract is agreed upon, this would be Bell's last season with the Steelers. Then, IMO, it comes down to they cannot agree on the money, both sides agree to disagree, and each walk their own way. This is an acceptable end to this relationship for me. What is not acceptable is to just let Bell walk away for zero value, to sign with whichever team will give him the money he wants, and the Steelers get nothing other than we now don't have to pay the tag price. That gains us nothing, and we lose the best RB in the league today. We are now looking at next season with gaping holes on both sides of the ball.
The chart apparently was for running backs with a minimum 4 seasons with an average of at least 75 rushing attempts per season - that low number of carries would include a lot of players of minimal importance to their teams, particularly compared to those as important to an offense as Bell is to the Steelers
Another article that was written at the end of the 2016 season sought to focus more specifically on the performance of backs carrying a burden similar to that carried by Bell for the Steelers by analyzing ""how other NFL running backs have fared at the age of 25 coming off years where they touched the football at least 300 times during the regular season since 2000. At the end of the 2016 season "there have been 25 running backs that match that criteria."
The chart in the linked article noted that
The first thing that jumps out in the differences of each player’s yearly stats below is the fact that 14 of these running backs missed at least two regular season games the year following them registering 300 or more touches.
The next difference that pops out is the fact only four of the 24 running backs, Edgerrin James, Deuce McAllister, Matt Forte and Ricky Williams, saw an increase in total rushing yards the season immediately following their 300-plus touch season at the age of 24. Additionally, only seven running backs in total had an increase in average yards per carry. And, only six running backs on this list saw their receiving yards increase the season following them touching the football 300 times or more.
As far as total touches (TT) go, only four running backs had that number increase the following season and Shaun Alexander just made the list with an increase of one touch.
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/07...ns-since-2000/
Bell fortunately did not miss significant time due to injury in 2017. However, his average yards per carry decreased significantly and while his receiving yards increased in 2017 over 2016 (655 up from 616), his average yards per reception decreased from 8.2 yards per reception to 7.7 yards per reception. By any measure Bell's productivity as a receiver has dropped from his peak in 2014, when he had 83 receptions with an average 10.3 yards per reception, which undercuts his contention he should be paid a combo platter of RB and #2 receiver rather than as a RB who catches a lot of short passes.
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...B/BellLe00.htm
As I posted yesterday, my uneducated impression is that the type of routes Bell runs have changed to those more associated with other backs in order to reduce his exposure to injury after the Bengals blew out his knee on a slant across the middle in week 17 of the 2014 season. During this past season it appeared a lot of Bell's catches were safety valve dump offs from Ben, which would explain the diminished average yards per carry but also diminish Bell's market value with regard to his receiving skills.
One back noted in the Steelers Depot article was Edgerrin James, who Bell has been compared to. FWIW James had two great seasons his first 2 years in the league, dropped off seasons 3 and 4, then had three more very productive years in seasons 5-7 before he steadily declined thereafter.
https://www.pro-football-reference.c...J/JameEd00.htm
My position is Bell has more than one productive year left but not so many that his contract demands are realistic.
Good post!
And again you got to factor in the Steelers cap situation. That 14 million franchise tag can't be spread out. The entire hit goes into next year's cap. And last I heard we're already 27 million over as it stands. Now obviously there's going to be a lot of tweaking. But one of the major tweaks they were expecting was Shazier's 8 million to be lowered way down with a long term contract. Now that's out of the equation it's going to take a lot to get to the right number in time to sign our draft picks. As much as anything I think the timing of Shazier's injury will spell the end of Bell's time in Pittsburgh.
"A man's got to know his limitations."
Regarding the non-exlusive tag, what are the rules on the two #1 picks you would receive? Can they be 1st round picks in the same draft? If so, the Bills and Browns have 2 1st round picks for this draft. Of course the Browns arent going to part with a #1 and #4 overall selection, but the Bills are #21 and #22 overall. If they traded McCoy and parted ways with their 1st rounders for Bell, Thats 3 picks for us in the 1st 1st 28 picks.
Talking in wild hypotheticals of course
This walks through a scenario where Bell gets the non-exclusive tag, the Browns make an offer to Bell before the draft, and the Steelers do not match along with no offers until after the draft
It sounds great to get 2 first round draft picks for a player, but the draft picks are written specifically so the deals many may think are possible, are not. Once tagged, Bell can only be traded for 2 first round draft picks. The first round picks must be the slotted picks earned by that team’s record. So if Cleveland wanted to trade first round picks, they couldn’t trade their #4 pick, it would have to be their #1 pick in the first round (since they hold the #1 and #4 picks and finished with the worst record, so their slotted pick is the first in the draft). The second first round pick would be their 2019 pick from their record slotting. So if Bell is tagged, there are no draft day deals to get the Steelers whatever pick they want. Steelers would only have draft day freedom to trade Bell for any pick, if Bell is signed to a contract and is not tagged....
Conversely, if Bell isn’t signed and the draft is over. Teams can then submit offers. A team like the Patriots could make an offer that the Steelers don’t match, then the Steelers don’t have Bell and have to wait a year to get the Pat’s first pick. That would create a talent vacuum at RB for a year, unless James Connor returns 100% from his MCL surgery. So in this situation the franchise tag could work against the Steelers’ plans.
https://www.steelernation.com/cap-cl...franchise-tag/
Thanks- maybe this is therapy for me to escape reflecting on the Jax loss and the grim prospect of another Pats championship
Unlike trading high picks for a draft choice (e.g. - Falcons to obtain Julio Jones), hard to see how obtaining a player other than a top franchise QB in his prime could justify giving up two first round picks along with the cap hit for signing the tagged player
All of the responses recently to this thread are why this place keeps me coming back! More insight and useful discussion here than most other NFL "news" sites!
Now if we could all just start getting paid...
Okay, so with all that said (and I agree with your assessment that his asking price is not realistic), where would you feel comfortable pricewise? Do you think my "47.5 with 23 in guaranteed money and a 2-4 mill tied up in roster bonuses for his last three years of a four-year contract" is too much? Would you move more of the guaranteed money into roster bonuses in seasons 2-4 so it's guaranteed if he is on the roster for that year, but not guaranteed if he's traded or cut before hand?
I do think he's a bit of a freak of nature. I think we have two to three good years left in him. We'd have more if we didn't wear him out like we have, but oh well. It is what it is.
Le'Veon Bell Could Be Targeted by Raiders if He Becomes Free Agent
The drama surrounding Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh Steelers got a little more real on Tuesday morning. With fans split between "getting the man paid" and "letting him go," the Steelers themselves are unsure what they will do in the coming weeks.
Sports Illustrated writer Peter King thinks that the Oakland Raiders could and should be the potential frontrunner for signing Le'Veon Bell if the Steelers decide to let him leave.
Bell is already playing financial hardball, so to speak, which means Pittsburgh is going to have to pay up—either for another single season or for a long-term deal that would undoubtedly make Bell the highest-paid back in the game. Because of the possibility of him leaving, Sports Illustrated’s Peter King recently noted that one team that makes sense for Bell as a free agent destination is the Chiefs' own rival, the Raiders!
King is just making a guess here we presume, but the man has had a knack for calling things like this in the past
http://www.12up.com/posts/5956360-le...nt?a_aid=42767
Give a lib a fish--he eats for a day
Teach a lib to fish--he is back the next day asking for more free fish.
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
The problem with the non-exclusive tag is that those Rd. 1 picks could as well be somewhere in the 20th pick range which is obvious a lot worse than Top5 picks.
On the plus side, I don't see the Cheats sign Bell. They literally don't ever have a featured RB and certainly won't pay Bell the kind of money he wants. But I could see the Seahawks sign him (if they have the cap space, don't know about that). They are probably one good RB away from being a top contender again...
A whole article written about a possibility in Peter King's mind. LMAO!!!
“I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play!” - Jack Lambert
Paul Zeise: The Steelers should franchise tag Le'Veon Bell Peter Diana/Post-Gazette
PAUL ZEISE
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
JAN 23, 2018
Le’Veon Bell’s contract is the most important decision the Steelers have to make this offseason. Bell is important but that doesn’t necessarily mean the best course of action is to sign him to a long-term deal. In fact, of the three options available, a long-term deal with a lot of guaranteed money makes the least amount of sense. Bell is going to be 27 next February, and most studies suggest that’s when running backs peak and begin to decline.
The Steelers should use the non-exclusive franchise tag on Bell. That way, they’d either have him for one more year or get two first-round picks if he leaves in free agency.
Bell has five seasons and more than 1,500 touches under his belt. He also has been suspended twice under the league’s substance abuse policy. It would be a bad move financially for the Steelers to lock him up for the long term, especially when their offense is built around the passing game. That means the Steelers have two choices: Either let Bell become a free agent or franchise tag him, paying him premium dollars for one more year and then letting him walk away.
to read rest of article:
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/z...s/201801230117
From Ed B. of the P-G in his chat today
If Bell leaves as a free agent, Steelers most likely would get a third rounder in 2019 for him. ...
No one is going to sign Bell and forfeit two first-round picks....
I just don't see them keeping him under his long-term demands or the huge franchise tag. They don't have a lot of cap room and that would gobble up that and more.
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201801230091
This is the current cap situation
Total 2018 cap liabilities: $186,078,086
Dead money: $956,175 (This is included in the above figure.)
2017 carryover: $4,040,611 (This is included in the above figure.)
Projected top 51 2018 cap number: $178,386,911
The following are not yet included.
Pittburgh’s six draft picks: $4,933,532
52nd and 53 roster spots: $1,110,000 (This is minimum but those two spots will be taken up by draft picks. The remaining four draft picks, for simplicity, will bump off four minimum salaries of $555,000 each.)
The 10-man taxi squad: $1.4 million (estimated)
The 2019 carryover: $3.5 million (estimated)
The estimated cap space is: -$14,194,707
While the Steelers will not be over that full amount, they are currently over the cap.
https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...ike-tomlin-nfl
https://overthecap.com/calculator/pittsburgh-steelers/
I obviously would not raise the alleged offer from last year and would need a four year deal to amortize the signing bonus. Last year's alleged offer to Bell apparently was frontloaded on guaranteed money in the first two years.
The five-year deal, according to sources, averaged more than $12 million annually. While it could not be determined how much signing bonus or guaranteed money was included in that, the sources said it would have paid more than $30 million in the first two years.
http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/s...s/201708180164
"Paid $30 million in the first two years" presumably would be the entire signing bonus (say $15 million?) and base salaries for years one and two ($7.5 million per?). That would put the overall cap hit at $22.5 million for the first two years of the contract (prorated bonus $3.5 million per year for cap purposes), with the remaining three years perhaps having roster bonuses in years 3 and 4 + backloaded higher salary.
By way of comparison, Brown's 5 year deal has a $19 million signing bonus and roster bonuses of $6 million in 2018 and $2.5 million in 2019 - but the hit for salary in 2017 was low since that was the last year of AB's prior contract.
https://overthecap.com/player/antonio-brown/1579/
Steelers could have absorbed a $11 million per year cap hit under the deal, had it been signed last year, through such actions as AB not counting nearly as much against the cap in 2017 as future years, releasing Mitchell in 2018, signing Shazier to a long term deal to significantly reduce his $8 million option year for 2018, and perhaps reworking Ben's deal (no guarantee about Ben playing through 2020 then). Now Bell has less value than he did a year ago and the Steelers apparently are stuck with paying Shazier $8 million in 2018.
If your deal could keep the cap hit at $10 million per in 2018 and 2019 I would offer it - but I doubt Bell would take it. My view is the Steelers should tag him, try to negotiate, then try for a sign and trade before the draft before pulling the tag if nothing works out (as the Panthers did with Josh Norman in 2016). After looking more closely at this year's cap situation I have trouble seeing how they can afford the franchise tag cost.
In King's defense (and I am no Peter King fan) he made it clear it was a guess in response to a tweeted question - unlike the chum thrown out regularly by Ian Rapoport and Mike Florio no sketchy claims of inside information
Bouchette took the same position today based on the Steelers cap situation making another tag payment difficult and assumption Bell is not going to sign a long term deal with the Steelers
Agreed. I can see the Raiders going hard after skill players this draft to give Carr weapons. Bell's skillset works great here, in this system. I don't know how he would do with the Raiders. I have never been a fan of Crabtree, and used to like Lynch in Buffalo, before the whole 'BeastMode' thing went to his head. Patterson was boom or bust from the beginning and so far, not much boom.
Considering the cap number is not much for RBs I would even consider tagging Bell the next two years.