Wonder when are we getting Romo so he can predict the play calls?Originally Posted by polamalubeast
Ravens-Steelers shaping up as a game for the #1 CBS announcing crew
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
Wonder when are we getting Romo so he can predict the play calls?
Ravens-Steelers shaping up as a game for the #1 CBS announcing crew
It's going to be in week 6 against KC
In week 4, the Raiders-Broncos games is at 4:25 ....
Array title="Rotorhead has a reputation beyond repute">
A few players didnt practice due to illness, hope it isnt the same thing AV had
Ben on the road.
Steelers playing on the road against an awful Bears team.
Going up against Glennon the Steelers Killer.
Most importantly, Markus Wheaton scheduled to return...
I do not think the Bears will score a lot of points against us
Less than 20 points is very likely......
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
I think the defense takes over this one early. Offense just doesn't need to turn the ball over.
One of our problems against the bad team in the last few years is that our defense often gave a TD on the opening drive of the opposing offense.
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
What are you saying? Do you think the defense lays an egg here and we lose this one? Are you predicting an opening drive TD for the Bears? I don't understand your follow up comment.
No
This is just that every time we lose against the bad teams, our defense often gives a TD or 10 points in the first 2 drives
I'm not saying it's going to happen in Chicago, but that's one of the reasons the Steelers have problems with bad teams in the last few years.
Array title="tube517 has a reputation beyond repute">
Had no idea Booger Butt Fumble was on the Bears
Both starting guards are either too injured to practice or practicing in limited fashion late in the week. The DL is going to eat.
On another note, Im having a real laugh out of how aware media pundits have gotten about our penchant for playing down to the competition. Elliot Harrison always talks highly of the steelers but definitely has been giving us a ribbing about it the past couple seasons in his game picks. Were only onto game 3 and he's already given us crap about it in his predictions for us barely beating the Browns, and now, barely beating the Bears: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...-chiefs-hit-30
Bingo!!!
Stats can be interpreted (and ignored) in order to prove one side or the other of almost any argument.
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
Because $$$ are involved, no surprise numbers have been crunched on winning percentages for teams favored by various numbers of points since it involves gambling, including but not limited to assessing the odds on a money line bet (who will win the game straight up, not who will cover)
For example the Bears are underdogs by 7-7&1/2 this week and the money line varies from Bears +280-290 (lose $100 if you bet Bears on money line to win/win $280-290 if Bears win)
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/money/
The following chart shows the probability of winning by point spread, based on historical data (from the 1994 through 2013 seasons).
This is the data from 1994 - 2013 of how often a 7 point underdog wins the game rather than just covers the spread (the chart from which this information is obtained covers all point spreads)
Point spread - 7 points
Games at 7 points - 369
Underdog won - 96 games
(This excerpt from the chart in the article linked below says 7 point dog won 96 games and lost 369 games but that does not match up with the 26% actual win probability listed in the chart so I went with the assumption the 7 point underdog won 26% of 369 games played)
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
FWIW this is Tomlin's record through 2015 at various point spreads for both winning the game straight up and covering the spread
https://twitter.com/FO_ScottKacsmar/...61376395685888
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/10/steelers-record-tomlin-favored-league-averages/
Tomlin teams underperform more than might be expected at various point spreads as big favorites compared to the entire league. To some extent that might be due to the Steelers being a popular team for causal bettors for which the line is skewed upward to attract bets on the opposing underdog (sportsbooks goal is to have an equal amount bet on both teams and make their money off the vig paid for losing bets)
But big favorites losing games straight up is not just a Tomlin phenomenon
I'm still working through my morning jug of coffee -- but I think that Atlanta Dan just ruined the lifeblood of about 65% of the posters here!
Seems that betting lines are heavily influenced by how the sports books want the money to move and not always by the on-field product and...AND...ANNNNNDDDD....
....Non- Mike Tomlin coached teams lose as heavy favorites. I mean I have been told to believe that this is only something Cool Shades does!
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
Shorter version of my previous post - Tomlin teams having issues as a big road favorite (7 points or more) compared to the league average is not just an undocumented perception
Past history gives reason to be nervous about this Sunday's game and definitely be hesitant to give the points
Array title="Born2Steel has a reputation beyond repute">
The fact that we historically don't come away from Soldier Field with a 'W' is reason enough for me to be nervous.
Still, I think this week we will. And fairly easily. We stop Cohen, We stop the Bears.
Two things get the win and, every Steeler remains healthy!
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
Looks like Tuitt may be a go on Sunday. Watts didn't practice Thursday which doesn't sound promising.
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
One reason I enjoy posts by gamblers announcing their picks is they have to pay attention to what is going on since they back up their opinions with risking $$$ on it
This from Bill Simmons on Steelers-Bears
“Beware of any Steelers road game in which they’re undefeated and favored because Roethlisberger enjoys either getting hurt or completely shitting the bed at least once before the baseball playoffs start.”
Simmons is not living in his fears. He has the Steelers (-1/2) and the Packers (-2) this weekend on a two team teaser bet (for any non-gamblers out there you can “tease” two teams by nudging the game lines in their favor, but both teams have to win.)
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2017/9...s-bill-simmons
I've known many a gambler who has told me that they stay away form Steelers games, because lines-makers figure that Steelers fans will bet heavily on their own team (no matter what)... and, in order to have an even amount of money on both sides of the lines, Vegas compensates by skewing the Steelers as higher favorites.
A line that should be 3 points will rise to about 7 points, in order to encourage people to pick the underdog... and thus, compensate for the overwhelming number of Steelers fans who bet on their own team.
Dan... what are your thoughts on this?
- - - Updated - - -
That Time Zone Thing (2017 Edition)
The Steelers 2016 slate did not include a single trip outside of the Eastern Time Zone until the Divisional Round in Kansas City. For those who have been long-time readers of my blogs and twitter, you know one of my favorite (weird) stats to harp on is the Steelers bizarre splits based on time zones. In 2015 the Steelers made five trips outside the Eastern Time Zone (including the playoff game in Denver) and went 2-3. In his 10 years as head coach of the Steelers, Mike Tomlin has inexplicably bad splits between his record in Eastern Standard Time and outside of Eastern Standard Time (that were not shared by his predecessors).
Over the last decade the Steelers have been the third best team in the league with a 111-63 overall record (.638 winning percentage). Only New England (139-41, .772) and Green Bay (116-61-1, .654) have been better during that span. Hidden in that, however, is just how bad the Steelers are when they have to travel outside of their time zone. For reference, I have included all regular season and playoff games in this analysis, so this is a reflection of the Steelers true overall record, playoffs included.
read more
http://steelcityblitz.com/that-time-...-2017-edition/
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
My impression is the line does not move that much to draw in $$$, but you definitely pay a premium if you bet on a popular team at home - of course sometimes no increase is enough - Pats were 16-3 against the spread last season (Steelers were 11-8)
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/tre...ge=yearly_2016
General rule is that line moves in favor of favorites and the over along with recency bias to discount a team that lost the previous week while looking more favorably on a team that won the previous week - folks want to be associated with success
Array title="AtlantaDan has a reputation beyond repute">
Apparently Watt was injured on a punt coverage play - since AB is not returning punts (at least for now), good of Tomlin to go old school and have your #1 pick and starting OLB playing special teams
Certainly did.........
I knew it would happen...
Just wouldn't feel like the Steelers if we didn't lose on the Road to horrible teams.
Array title="DesertSteel has a reputation beyond repute">
Meh..... still 11-5
Ravens will wipe the floor with us after the beating they took
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