Schefter: Steelers Not Close To Signing Bell Long-Term With Deadline Looming

[SteelMayhem72]

whats left to negotiate though , we know what he wants and its so far out of the realm of possibility the only thing left to do is laugh at his joke of demands of self worth ....

the deadline was to get a long term deal done before the Tag officially kicks in ...

Ike suggests he MIGHT hold out and really make a statement ... since the tag is unsigned wondering if we can rescind it if it lingers into the season ??

I want this team focused on winning not on what Bell is doing ..last thing we need is a distraction

I agree... If bell really wants to be hated in pittsburgh then it will be if he holds out indefinitely... Then just show him the door... Ben's window is almost shut and we dont need any 1 player making it all about himself... Dont know if its mandatory if he has to show up right at the first game or not

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

[Mojouw]

Problem is that whether or not Bell creates a three-ring circus level distraction, the Steelers do not win a SB w/out him this season. Too much of the rest of the offense is young and/or unsettled.

Both Bell and the Steelers are essentially stuck with each other for 2017 at the least.

If Bell chooses to hold-out for awhile that will stop if/when Connor starts ripping off runs in practice games.

[Shoes]

Bell's biggest challenge is staying healthy. His mouth can't help him here.

[DesertSteel]

Bell is gambling on Bell. I cannot blame him a bit. He will get just over $12M for this year, and if no deal gets done next offseason, stands to make over $14M for the '18 season.

If he gets injured, and/or suspended for any length of time, his stock drops. If he wins back to back SB MVPs, which is his goal obviously, his stock rises to QB money. Either way he pockets $26M for 2 seasons of work. It's risky, but it's all the leverage he has right now.

No team is going to reset the RB market at 20M+.

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Problem is that whether or not Bell creates a three-ring circus level distraction, the Steelers do not win a SB w/out him this season. Too much of the rest of the offense is young and/or unsettled.

Both Bell and the Steelers are essentially stuck with each other for 2017 at the least.

If Bell chooses to hold-out for awhile that will stop if/when Connor starts ripping off runs in practice games.

That team can win the Super Bowl without any player sans Ben.

[steelreserve]

Bell is gambling on Bell. I cannot blame him a bit. He will get just over $12M for this year, and if no deal gets done next offseason, stands to make over $14M for the '18 season.

If he gets injured, and/or suspended for any length of time, his stock drops. If he wins back to back SB MVPs, which is his goal obviously, his stock rises to QB money. Either way he pockets $26M for 2 seasons of work. It's risky, but it's all the leverage he has right now.

I don't understand what he's gambling on, quite frankly. He stays healthy for all 16 games and has a 2,000-yard season - how much more can he get than what was already on the table?

We already offered him MVP money. Nobody is going to offer him significantly more than that. Salary norms for the position aside, it would just be impossible for most teams to do that at all. He basically got offered the max that you can make as a running back and turned it down. Maybe there wasn't enough guaranteed money for his liking, but there's no guaranteed money now, and his big payday isn't going to be any higher either. All risk, no reward. Stupid.

[Born2Steel]

I don't understand what he's gambling on, quite frankly. He stays healthy for all 16 games and has a 2,000-yard season - how much more can he get than what was already on the table?

We already offered him MVP money. Nobody is going to offer him significantly more than that. Salary norms for the position aside, it would just be impossible for most teams to do that at all. He basically got offered the max that you can make as a running back and turned it down. Maybe there wasn't enough guaranteed money for his liking, but there's no guaranteed money now, and his big payday isn't going to be any higher either. All risk, no reward. Stupid.

How do you know what the offer was? Has it been released? Most of us are guessing it came down to how much was guaranteed, not necessarily the total numbers. If Bell has a dominant season, he's more likely to get more in 'guaranteed money'. That is the gamble.

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No team is going to reset the RB market at 20M+.

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That team can win the Super Bowl without any player sans Ben.

OK, you got me on ACTUAL numbers. My point remains.

[Mojouw]

The AFCCG last season would beg to differ that Bell is not indispensable as this team is currently constituted.

If Ladarius Green had returned to health - then Bell is not as necessary.

If Connor is actually a year one NFL beast - then Bell is not as necessary.

If Bryant can stay sober and return to levels of dominance not seen since the heyday of Randy Moss - then Bell is not as necessary.

If Touissant was really any good - then Bell is not as necessary.

If Ayers, Hamilton, Rogers, Smith-Schuster were established reliable secondary weapons in the offense - then Bell wouldn't be as necessary.

Unfortunately, almost none of the above are true at this point. Currently, the entire offensive scheme is predicated on the presence of a legitimate deep threat and the almost league wide unique talents of Bell. It will take at least a season to transition away from Bell being the pivot point of the entire offense. His movement across the formation, his ability to perform WR and RB roles, as well as his RB skills drive many of the personnel groupings and are used on almost every play to force the defense into a series of bad decisions.

I think of it this way, could the Rams "Greatest Show on Turf" worked without Marshall Faulk? What about those Chargers teams built around Tomlinson? Sure, both needed darn good QBs as well, but when those two backs were missing both those offenses struggled badly.

[ALLD]

Bell would need to defy all odds of his track record in order and put up 2,000+ yards to receive a higher/better offer from the Steelers. He is not getting any younger either and we either ride on his back or he breaks down.

[Born2Steel]

Bell would need to defy all odds of his track record in order and put up 2,000+ yards to receive a higher/better offer from the Steelers. He is not getting any younger either and we either ride on his back or he breaks down.

Rushing yards alone, maybe. Bell is an all-purpose back and makes yards both on the ground and thru the air, and he totals around the 2000 yard mark.

[DesertSteel]

The AFCCG last season would beg to differ that Bell is not indispensable as this team is currently constituted.

There is no proof that we win or even get closer to winning with Bell in the game. Only speculation. I'm not minimizing Bell, but I'm also not putting him into the indispensable category. In the NFL, that role belongs solely to the QB.

[Born2Steel]

This offense goes thru Bell. He is either running the ball or receiving the ball or pass blocking his ass off on every offensive play. The Steelers offense lives and dies with Bell. Yes, Ben too, but Bell belongs in that category as well.

[Mojouw]

There is no proof that we win or even get closer to winning with Bell in the game. Only speculation. I'm not minimizing Bell, but I'm also not putting him into the indispensable category. In the NFL, that role belongs solely to the QB.

I am not certain how he can not be defined as such. Until another RB and another pass-catching option emerge and establish themselves on this offense, then Bell is the engine that drives the while thing. Of course it requires a QB to execute everything, but in the last 2 seasons, the offense has struggled severely when either Ben or Bell is not playing.

In 2016 Bell gained 72% of the total rushing yards on offense (1268 of 1760) and was the target of 15.7% of the total pass attempts (94/156). That was in only 12 games.

For context, in 16 games AB had 25.8% of the pass targets (154/596). If Bell had maintained his same rate and played a full slate then he would've had roughly 24 more pass targets. That would bring him up to around 20% of the total pass targets.

In contrast, DWill caught 13% less of his targets, for 1.5 yards/reception less, and was targeted noticeably less per game over his starts. He also rushed for 1.5 yards per carry less and less yards per game than Bell.

Like the man said, he is the #1 RB and the #2 WR. I have NO IDEA what that is actually worth in cap dollars and contractual guarantees, but how else can I view Bell other than pretty darn indispensable?

[steelreserve]

How do you know what the offer was? Has it been released? Most of us are guessing it came down to how much was guaranteed, not necessarily the total numbers. If Bell has a dominant season, he's more likely to get more in 'guaranteed money'. That is the gamble.

From what's been reported, the offer was essentially 3 years, $42 million with ~$10 million guaranteed, $30M in the first two years, and some team options for two more years.

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...-franchise-tag

Realistically, the only way he's not getting at least $30M is if he gets suspended for drugs again this season or suffered a career-ending injury - think worse than an ACL, I still don't think they'd cut him if he simply tore an ACL, they'd see if he could come back or at the very least they'd have to pay him an injury buyout. You can basically call that $30M "guaranteed barring flat-out stupidity."

Not signing the deal is actually a pretty huge bet against himself - to be guaranteed of at least $30 million, which is more than the sweetest guarantee you'd ever see written into a contract, all you have to do is not fuck up with drugs for this season and the following offseason.

And the outcome is even dumber - instead he took $12 million ... but guess what, the other part is the same! If he fucks up with drugs, he doesn't get any more money. But guess what else? Now if he tears his ACL he's not under contract, and the team has nothing at stake and no decision to make. He's just a free agent earning nothing. If he just has a bad year, he's not under contract, and the team doesn't have to decide whether he's worth $18M or whatever the second year of his contract calls for. He's a free agent, so their offer just goes down. Literally every other scenario now works out worse for him by not signing the offer. Maybe if it was a lowball offer he'd have a point, but it wasn't.

So either he must have such a diva-like opinion of himself that it's almost beyond comprehension, or the real reason is he doesn't like Pittsburgh and wants to leave, either of which are pretty bad signs for keeping him long-term. Of course, the third option is that he just made a bonehead move, so keep your fingers crossed that it's that one.

[Mojouw]

From what's been reported, the offer was essentially 3 years, $42 million with ~$10 million guaranteed, $30M in the first two years, and some team options for two more years.

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.co...-franchise-tag

Realistically, the only way he's not getting at least $30M is if he gets suspended for drugs again this season or suffered a career-ending injury - think worse than an ACL, I still don't think they'd cut him if he simply tore an ACL, they'd see if he could come back or at the very least they'd have to pay him an injury buyout. You can basically call that $30M "guaranteed barring flat-out stupidity."

Not signing the deal is actually a pretty huge bet against himself - to be guaranteed of at least $30 million, which is more than the sweetest guarantee you'd ever see written into a contract, all you have to do is not fuck up with drugs for this season and the following offseason.

And the outcome is even dumber - instead he took $12 million ... but guess what, the other part is the same! If he fucks up with drugs, he doesn't get any more money. But guess what else? Now if he tears his ACL he's not under contract, and the team has nothing at stake and no decision to make. He's just a free agent earning nothing. If he just has a bad year, he's not under contract, and the team doesn't have to decide whether he's worth $18M or whatever the second year of his contract calls for. He's a free agent, so their offer just goes down. Literally every other scenario now works out worse for him by not signing the offer. Maybe if it was a lowball offer he'd have a point, but it wasn't.

So either he must have such a diva-like opinion of himself that it's almost beyond comprehension, or the real reason is he doesn't like Pittsburgh and wants to leave, either of which are pretty bad signs for keeping him long-term. Of course, the third option is that he just made a bonehead move, so keep your fingers crossed that it's that one.

It all depends on the guaranteed cash. That has yet to be reported or speculated on. Other than guaranteed cash, NFL contracts are not worth the paper they are printed on.

AB's deal is basically $19 million in year 1 as a signing bonus. Then 17.6 million in year 2. Then 18.9 in year 3. Then he is 32 and totally cut-able due to the dead money now being on the team's side. So basically it is not a 78 million dollar deal or whatever, it is a 3 year 48 million dollar deal with some super high cost option years in AB's early thirties that he will never realize.

Like I said earlier, Bell was not getting the 26 million he makes on the tag guaranteed. I see what you are saying, but I am willing to bet that much of what was in the Steelers offer was "funny money". If we assume he gets $30 million in two years through the extension, the team basically they offered to pay him $4 million dollars to give up control over his contractual situation. That's not a good deal for Bell.

[steelreserve]

It all depends on the guaranteed cash. That has yet to be reported or speculated on. Other than guaranteed cash, NFL contracts are not worth the paper they are printed on.

AB's deal is basically $19 million in year 1 as a signing bonus. Then 17.6 million in year 2. Then 18.9 in year 3. Then he is 32 and totally cut-able due to the dead money now being on the team's side. So basically it is not a 78 million dollar deal or whatever, it is a 3 year 48 million dollar deal with some super high cost option years in AB's early thirties that he will never realize.

Like I said earlier, Bell was not getting the 26 million he makes on the tag guaranteed. I see what you are saying, but I am willing to bet that much of what was in the Steelers offer was "funny money". If we assume he gets $30 million in two years through the extension, the team basically they offered to pay him $4 million dollars to give up control over his contractual situation. That's not a good deal for Bell.

Yeah, that's how NFL contracts work. Basically he can count on getting the first three years, two if he really fucks up, and beyond that you're negotiating again for what you're worth now.

My point is, what he'd get in the first couple years is still more than any guaranteed money he'd likely get from any contract anywhere next year. Is someone going to guarantee him $40 million somewhere, even after another standout year? There's no way that happens. What we offered was a very frontloaded deal, which works in his favor, and beyond the first few years, any contract put in front of him is going to have the same issues. Three years from now, he'll be negotiating again no matter what.

I could be wrong of course, but I just don't see how either the money or the security works out in his favor by rejecting an offer like that. He's shooting for the moon, and that has a way of not turning out how you'd hoped.

[DesertSteel]

I am not certain how he can not be defined as such. Until another RB and another pass-catching option emerge and establish themselves on this offense, then Bell is the engine that drives the while thing. Of course it requires a QB to execute everything, but in the last 2 seasons, the offense has struggled severely when either Ben or Bell is not playing.

In 2016 Bell gained 72% of the total rushing yards on offense (1268 of 1760) and was the target of 15.7% of the total pass attempts (94/156). That was in only 12 games.

For context, in 16 games AB had 25.8% of the pass targets (154/596). If Bell had maintained his same rate and played a full slate then he would've had roughly 24 more pass targets. That would bring him up to around 20% of the total pass targets.

In contrast, DWill caught 13% less of his targets, for 1.5 yards/reception less, and was targeted noticeably less per game over his starts. He also rushed for 1.5 yards per carry less and less yards per game than Bell.

Like the man said, he is the #1 RB and the #2 WR. I have NO IDEA what that is actually worth in cap dollars and contractual guarantees, but how else can I view Bell other than pretty darn indispensable?

The last time I checked Ben has been to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 while Bell has been to zero. That's empirical evidence.

[st33lersguy]

Waste of money this guy would be. I would rather upgrade another area of the team than dump that much money into a position that is becoming irrelevant.

And yes, Bell is best back in the league.

When was the last time 'best back in league' led a team to the super bowl? When was the last time 'best back in the league' was even on the super bowl winning team?

It's been a long, long, long time.

Bell is worth it if you want to sell a bunch of jerseys.

Agree totally. The RB never has won the super bowl without significant help from the QB or defense. Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, RB Murderer, Earl Campbell, none of them even made it to a Super Bowl. Walter Payton waited a full decade befoer making it to and winning a Super Bowl and even then that was only with one of the 3 greatest defensive seasons ever. Jim Brown didn't win an NFL championship until his 8th year. Franco and Bus won Super Bowls, but there was great talent everywhere on both of those teams. Bell is a special player, but if they blow all their money on him and don't have money to sign/keep other guys it will be hard to get to the Super Bowl.

[AtlantaDan]

The last time I checked Ben has been to 3 Super Bowls and won 2 while Bell has been to zero. That's empirical evidence.

But Bell unlike Ben has never had the extraordinary benefit of having Arians on the coaching staff

Bottom line is if Bell wants a mega-payout through the benefit of contracts that are guaranteed for their entire term learn how to shoot a basketball or swing a baseball bat - not happening with a sham union like the NFLPA

[Mojouw]

Yeah, that's how NFL contracts work. Basically he can count on getting the first three years, two if he really fucks up, and beyond that you're negotiating again for what you're worth now.

My point is, what he'd get in the first couple years is still more than any guaranteed money he'd likely get from any contract anywhere next year. Is someone going to guarantee him $40 million somewhere, even after another standout year? There's no way that happens. What we offered was a very frontloaded deal, which works in his favor, and beyond the first few years, any contract put in front of him is going to have the same issues. Three years from now, he'll be negotiating again no matter what.

I could be wrong of course, but I just don't see how either the money or the security works out in his favor by rejecting an offer like that. He's shooting for the moon, and that has a way of not turning out how you'd hoped.

I actually agree. I think I can see what Bell, or at least his agent, is hoping for.

$15 million or more per year with 40-45% guaranteed. So that looks something like this:

$15 million per year x 5 years = 75 million total contract value. Then the team guarantees 45% or so of the deal. That is 33.75 million paid out for certain. And an outside shot at making 41 and change more. That contract structure would be WAY TOO player friendly for my tastes. BUT it does combine the high end of the % guaranteed of RBs with WR money.

I suspect that is what Bell and his agent are looking for. Less % guaranteed than a WR (typically they are 50-60+%) and just short of double the yearly salary of other RBs.

Honestly, if his health holds out and he continues to perform as he has in the past, he will get it from some desperate team in 2019.

[Born2Steel]

Agree totally. The RB never has won the super bowl without significant help from the QB or defense. Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, RB Murderer, Earl Campbell, none of them even made it to a Super Bowl. Walter Payton waited a full decade befoer making it to and winning a Super Bowl and even then that was only with one of the 3 greatest defensive seasons ever. Jim Brown didn't win an NFL championship until his 8th year. Franco and Bus won Super Bowls, but there was great talent everywhere on both of those teams. Bell is a special player, but if they blow all their money on him and don't have money to sign/keep other guys it will be hard to get to the Super Bowl.

Not disagreeing with your overall view, BUT, Marino only made 1 SB for his career, Elway didn't win until he had TD. It is very much a team sport and ALL the pieces have value. A great QB doesn't win without weapons either. Point here is Bell is 'The Best RB in Football Today' and that makes him ELITE. The basic rules do not apply to elite players. This is what makes it so tough to build and keep a SB caliber team. You are absolutely spot on about not being able to sign other good players on the team being the downside. Have to decide which is more important, keeping the top weapon on this team, or a pretty good O or D lineman. Or what about that flashy ILB? I'm just glad I don't have to make those choices for a living. I'm thinking we will see similar threads on AV, Tuitt, and Shazier before long.

[pczach]

Bell was not kidding when he said in 2016 this was his contract demand

Bell released the single, titled "Focus," [last summer]. It references his three-game suspension for a marijuana arrest last year, his recovery from a torn MCL and the reason he plays football. He also addresses his upcoming free-agent status in 2017, for which he names a hefty price tag.

In the song, Bell drops the line, "I'm at the top and if not I'm the closest, Ima need 15 a year and they know this."

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news...m1nn71f48lvayo

Then there was this April Fools Day tweet that Bell later said was a "joke"

Much of Bell's twitter feed is dedicated to his own wonderfulness - he definitely thinks he is getting screwed by getting paid $12 million this upcoming season

The amazing thing about this entire situation is listening to him say he's willing to sit out the entire season.

If he sits out the season, he will lose $12.12 million.

If he sits out the season and the team makes the playoffs. They will essentially be in the same position they have been in since he has been with the team.......he won't be available for the playoffs.

He's entitled to do whatever he wants, but he better understand that he is putting out a very bad picture of himself to every NFL team. He turned down a contract that was literally going to pay him nearly twice what the next highest RB in the NFL would make this year. He can try to spin it any way he likes, but the fact of the matter is that he now looks like a paycheck player. It's not like the team low balled him. They offered him a very lucrative deal.

I don't wish him any ill will at all, but this gamble could literally ruin him. Either by injury or his own idiocy and greed.

Also, for the record.......the idea that he is doing this for all the poor NFL running backs out there is laughable. Again, he's within his rights to do whatever he wants. He just needs to know that there will be repercussions that he simply doesn't see right now.

If he thinks fans can't see through his ridiculous bullshit in tweets, he's fooling himself. Sitting out when you are offered significantly more money than any other player at your position makes does not inspire people.

[DesertSteel]

At least the Steelers FO had the common sense to leak their offer instead of announcing it like the dysfunctional Redskins did with 'Kurt' Cousins.

[Born2Steel]

https://www.profootballrumors.com/20...aints-contract

Close to the same as I have wished for Bell.

[Shoes]

The amazing thing about this entire situation is listening to him say he's willing to sit out the entire season.

If he sits out the season, he will lose $12.12 million.

If he sits out the season and the team makes the playoffs. They will essentially be in the same position they have been in since he has been with the team.......he won't be available for the playoffs.

He's entitled to do whatever he wants, but he better understand that he is putting out a very bad picture of himself to every NFL team. He turned down a contract that was literally going to pay him nearly twice what the next highest RB in the NFL would make this year. He can try to spin it any way he likes, but the fact of the matter is that he now looks like a paycheck player. It's not like the team low balled him. They offered him a very lucrative deal.

I don't wish him any ill will at all, but this gamble could literally ruin him. Either by injury or his own idiocy and greed.

Also, for the record.......the idea that he is doing this for all the poor NFL running backs out there is laughable. Again, he's within his rights to do whatever he wants. He just needs to know that there will be repercussions that he simply doesn't see right now.

If he thinks fans can't see through his ridiculous bullshit in tweets, he's fooling himself. Sitting out when you are offered significantly more money than any other player at your position makes does not inspire people.

[steelreserve]

I actually agree. I think I can see what Bell, or at least his agent, is hoping for.

$15 million or more per year with 40-45% guaranteed. So that looks something like this:

$15 million per year x 5 years = 75 million total contract value. Then the team guarantees 45% or so of the deal. That is 33.75 million paid out for certain. And an outside shot at making 41 and change more. That contract structure would be WAY TOO player friendly for my tastes. BUT it does combine the high end of the % guaranteed of RBs with WR money.

I suspect that is what Bell and his agent are looking for. Less % guaranteed than a WR (typically they are 50-60+%) and just short of double the yearly salary of other RBs.

Honestly, if his health holds out and he continues to perform as he has in the past, he will get it from some desperate team in 2019.

I mean ... shit, though. If his health holds out and he continues to perform, then guaranteed money doesn't even matter because he continues to earn the full amount. So what we offered turns out to not be a hell of a lot different from what he wanted anyway. It's just a lot of running around for nothing.

I guess I see in theory what he could be aiming for, but to me it's far from a sure thing that he gets it. Oh well, yolo.

[ALLD]

If Bell holds out he will never recoup the money. Too bad he is a great player with a 10 cent brain.

[DesertSteel]

If Bell holds out he will never recoup the money. Too bad he is a great player with a 10 cent brain.

Yeah who said that weed doesn't have any negative effects?

[teegre]

If I have this straight...

Franchised in 2017 ($12 million)
Franchised in 2018 ($14 million)

That means Bell would have to be offered $16 million in 2019, to match the Steelers' offer (3 years/$42 mil).

Of course, if he stays healthy (et cetera), he could very well be offered $16 million in 2019. Or, he'll be going into his 7th season, and very well could get offered less.

[DesertSteel]

If I have this straight...

Franchised in 2017 ($12 million)
Franchised in 2018 ($14 million)

That means Bell would have to be offered $16 million in 2019, to match the Steelers' offer (3 years/$42 mil).

Of course, if he stays healthy (et cetera), he could very well be offered $16 million in 2019. Or, he'll be going into his 7th season, and very well could get offered less.

Makes you wonder if his agent took his shoes off to finish adding it all up before they turned it down...

[Craic]

If I have this straight...

Franchised in 2017 ($12 million)
Franchised in 2018 ($14 million)

That means Bell would have to be offered $16 million in 2019, to match the Steelers' offer (3 years/$42 mil).

Of course, if he stays healthy (et cetera), he could very well be offered $16 million in 2019. Or, he'll be going into his 7th season, and very well could get offered less.

Yes, but that's also if the issue is straight up figures. It sounds, however, like the issue was guaranteed money. Personally, I'd rather take a 3 mill a year cut from each of those figures but be guaranteed 40 or 50 percent of it.