Devil’s Advocate: Too Deep Too Often

[polamalubeast]

You may recall for the past several offseasons that I ran an article series called The Optimist’s/Pessimist’s Take. I used it to explore different issues and topics the Pittsburgh Steelers were facing and took a positive or negative approach, examining each side in a separate article. This is essentially the same idea behind that, only condensed into one article for every topic.

In this version of the idea, I’ll be playing the Devil’s Advocate for both sides of the issue, looking at the best-case and worst-case scenarios in trying to find the range of likely outcomes of what is likely to happen for the Steelers relating to whatever topic the article is covering.

When it comes to the process of trying to construct a championship roster, the reality is that there are a ton of moving parts, and several ways to acquire said parts. There are a lot of things that can go right or wrong in not always predictable ways, so I think it’s helpful to try to look at issues by seeking out the boundaries of the likely positive or negative results.

Topic: Are the Steelers overly reliant on the deep passing game?


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http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/07...medium=twitter

[Mojouw]

This guy (Marczi) needs to quit with these posts already. They are essentially just prompts for the Steelers Depot comment page. The stats and analyses published on his own website details how the Steelers deep passing game, even last year, has been lethal.

[teegre]

This guy (Marczi) needs to quit with these posts already. They are essentially just prompts for the Steelers Depot comment page. The stats and analyses published on his own website details how the Steelers deep passing game, even last year, has been lethal.

His name is Dodens Grav... and, he is an a$$hole.



(Seriously, he's been on numerous Steelers boards, and he's the most condescending poster I have ever encountered. Really. His obnoxious attitude makes Tee Tee look like Mother Teresa.)

[pczach]

His name is Dodens Grav... and, he is an a$$hole.



(Seriously, he's been on numerous Steelers boards, and he's the most condescending poster I have ever encountered. Really. His obnoxious attitude makes Tee Tee look like Mother Teresa.)

These same people post their venomous thought processes everywhere they go.

They just repeat the same crap over and over again and seem determined to be the driving force behind the "unveiling" of some secret knowledge that only they have in the hopes of bringing down the organization. It's an obsession that borders on the insane in some cases. Delusional at best for some.

There have been some very disturbed people on Steelers message boards over the years.

[hawaiiansteeler]

His name is Dodens Grav... and, he is an a$$hole.

(Seriously, he's been on numerous Steelers boards, and he's the most condescending poster I have ever encountered. Really. His obnoxious attitude makes Tee Tee look like Mother Teresa.)

remember the arguments we used to get into with him? he actually would take both sides of a discussion in the same argument

[Hawkman]

Some threads....don't need to be started.

[Mojouw]

Hmmm. That's interesting to know.

I guess he is doing his job at Steelers Depot - his "articles" generate comments and likely get the site page views.

I'm just sad to see that Steelers Depot has decided to go that route. They just churn stuff out each day now and almost all of it meaningless.

[teegre]

remember the arguments we used to get into with him? he actually would take both sides of a discussion in the same argument

Yep.
No matter what side of the debate that you were on, YOU were WRONG. (The condescending use of the word "wrong" being essential.)

PERSON 1: Chocolate is better.
DODENS: Wrong. Vanilla is smoother on the pallet.
PERSON 2: Yep. Vanilla is better.
DODENS: Wrong. Chocolate has a richer flavor.


It kind of makes sense that the bulk of his articles are on both sides of the fence (e.g. playing Devil's Advocate for the opposing side of his original stance). That way, he's always right... and everyone else is always wrong.

[fansince'76]

No matter what side of the debate that you were on, YOU were WRONG. (The condescending use of the word "wrong" being essential.)

[teegre]

Bingo!!!

That is the exact voice I thought of as I typed the word "Wrong!"

[Steeldude]

No more Al Davis ball. It's one thing to throw bombs once in awhile and another to live by it because you can't move down the field.

[cold-hard-steel]

Go deep and connect GREAT CALL ,go deep and miss STUPID CALL , throw short NICE PLAY , throw it short and broken play , WHY THROW IT SHORT , Why not run the DAMN BALL. Why can't we do everything right !!!!!!! Boy i tell ya !

[ALLD]

When the team is driving and it's 3rd and 1, don't go for the low percentage deep pass despite the fact the opposing defense isn't expecting it. Play the percentages in that situation and be sure to EXECUTE properly to obtain the needed yardage to continue the drive.

If the team is stalling and needs a spark, then it would be more appropriate for the long balls. Drive killing plays and decisions are not on the road to the Super bowl.

[polamalubeast]

When the team is driving and it's 3rd and 1, don't go for the low percentage deep pass despite the fact the opposing defense isn't expecting it. Play the percentages in that situation and be sure to EXECUTE properly to obtain the needed yardage to continue the drive.

If the team is stalling and needs a spark, then it would be more appropriate for the long balls. Drive killing plays and decisions are not on the road to the Super bowl.

In 2016, it was not a problem.

[Mojouw]

The deep passing game is not having a negative impact on the offense. PB, posted the short yardage conversion rate above. And this tidbit speaks to red-zone efficiency:

"So from 2015 through the first five games of last year, when Roethlisberger was on the field, the Steelers offense scored 40 touchdowns on 58 meaningful trips inside the red zone—that is, when they were trying to score a touchdown.

That is a red zone efficiency of very nearly 69 percent, which is actually excellent."

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/07...-zone-results/

So basically, the fan perception (that we all have to one degree or another!) that the Steelers cause punts by missed deep shots on 3rd down and that the team regularly stalls and misfires in the endzone is a bit flawed. I'm surprised - I thought the #'s would be far worse than they are.

Since 2014, the Steelers have ranked 4th, 5th, and 11th in % of drives that result in points (https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/s...atistics/2016/)

Man, oh, man. If all the key pieces can stay healthy and not get suspended for the wacky tabaccy -- I figure they might put up Tecmo Bowl #'s. Or at least match the Falcons from last year.

[Born2Steel]

The deep passing game is not having a negative impact on the offense. PB, posted the short yardage conversion rate above. And this tidbit speaks to red-zone efficiency:

"So from 2015 through the first five games of last year, when Roethlisberger was on the field, the Steelers offense scored 40 touchdowns on 58 meaningful trips inside the red zone—that is, when they were trying to score a touchdown.

That is a red zone efficiency of very nearly 69 percent, which is actually excellent."

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/07...-zone-results/

So basically, the fan perception (that we all have to one degree or another!) that the Steelers cause punts by missed deep shots on 3rd down and that the team regularly stalls and misfires in the endzone is a bit flawed. I'm surprised - I thought the #'s would be far worse than they are.

Since 2014, the Steelers have ranked 4th, 5th, and 11th in % of drives that result in points (https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/s...atistics/2016/)

Man, oh, man. If all the key pieces can stay healthy and not get suspended for the wacky tabaccy -- I figure they might put up Tecmo Bowl #'s. Or at least match the Falcons from last year.

That is the DREAM. It felt like we missed on a lot of redzone opportunities last year. Maybe the numbers show that is not the case, but that is how last season felt.

[polamalubeast]

That is the DREAM. It felt like we missed on a lot of redzone opportunities last year. Maybe the numbers show that is not the case, but that is how last season felt.

He was talking about the entire 2015 season until the week 5 of last year, so it was when the steelers had a deep threat on the field (Bryant or Coates) for most of the time.

The Steelers offense felt the loss of Bryant and his replacement (Coates after the week 5 in 2016) last year.

[Born2Steel]

He was talking about the entire 2015 season until the week 5 of last year, so it was when the steelers had a deep threat on the field (Bryant or Coates) for most of the time.

The Steelers offense felt the loss of Bryant and his replacement (Coates after the week 5 in 2016) last year.

Yep. I don't know what the numbers are on those type plays for last season, but it felt like we missed out on more redzone trips than we should have. Having Bryant back is an INSTANT upgrade to our redzone offense. I think adding a tough, straightline RB like Conner is an upgrade as well. Time will tell on that. JuJu is the perfect 'style' receiver, IMO, for redzone offense. Last season we missed Bryant, an efficient run game, and 50/50 ball completions, that ended up with 3pts instead of 6. i have no numbers to back this up, just how I see last season. 2015, we could have won it all if not for Bell and AB being knocked out of the payoffs. Again, just my opinion.

[polamalubeast]

Yep. I don't know what the numbers are on those type plays for last season, but it felt like we missed out on more redzone trips than we should have. Having Bryant back is an INSTANT upgrade to our redzone offense. I think adding a tough, straightline RB like Conner is an upgrade as well. Time will tell on that. JuJu is the perfect 'style' receiver, IMO, for redzone offense. Last season we missed Bryant, an efficient run game, and 50/50 ball completions, that ended up with 3pts instead of 6. i have no numbers to back this up, just how I see last season. 2015, we could have won it all if not for Bell and AB being knocked out of the payoffs. Again, just my opinion.

No doubt the team in 2015 was better than in 2016.

I know that in 2015 the steelers had 10-6 compare to 11-5 in 2016 and they have been further in the playoffs, but the steelers in 2015 were more explosive on offense(not even close) and they had a very hard Schedule.

At the end, the steelers had far too much injury, but they never gave up and they gave a very good battle against the Broncos in Denver.

[Edman]

No doubt the 2015 Steelers were a better team than the 2016 Steelers.

The 2015 Steelers fought hard win or lose. I said it last year that if something wasn't going absolutely perfectly with the 2016 team, like early last year, then they would breakdown in all facets of the game. Last years' team didn't just lose. They lost ugly. Look at the comparison to the season-ending losses:

2015: Pushed the Broncos to the brink with our third string RB and fall short.

2016: Have Ben, Bell, and Brown and don't even come close to beating the Patriots.

The 2015 team also scored more points, and gave up fewer. Despite missing Ben for two games.

[polamalubeast]

No doubt the 2015 Steelers were a better team than the 2016 Steelers.

The 2015 Steelers fought hard win or lose. I said it last year that if something wasn't going absolutely perfectly with the 2016 team, like early last year, then they would breakdown in all facets of the game. Last years' team didn't just lose. They lost ugly. Look at the comparison to the season-ending losses:

2015: Pushed the Broncos to the brink with our third string RB and fall short.

2016: Have Ben, Bell, and Brown and don't even come close to beating the Patriots.

The 2015 team also scored more points, and gave up fewer. Despite missing Ben for two games.

And the steelers had a very hard schedule in the 2015 season.

[steel striker]

Yeah well when it's third and one and, you try a 50 yard pass over the top that ends incomplete that drives me crazy. Then on the other hand when it works for a TD just about everyone is happy. Maybe I'm just old school but, on third and one I like to see them pound it.

[86WARD]

Yeah well when it's third and one and, you try a 50 yard pass over the top that ends incomplete that drives me crazy. Then on the other hand when it works for a TD just about everyone is happy. Maybe I'm just old school but, on third and one I like to see them pound it.

A lot of times that's Ben though. If he sees one on one coverage, he makes the adjustment and to his defense, a lot of times it's there but the receiver doesn't make the play that they should.

[steelerdude15]

Devil’s Advocate: Too Deep Too Often

Thats what she said

[polamalubeast]

I prefer to go deep too often that never(or almost) go deep as it was the case at the beginning with Todd Haley and his dink and dunk!