Which 10 Steelers Players Would You Protect From An Expansion Draft?

[polamalubeast]

[st33lersguy]

Ben, Bell, AB, Harrison, Bryant, DeCastro, Pouncey, Shazier, Heyward, Tuitt. I went for accomplishment over potential on this one

[Born2Steel]

AB, Heyward, Tuitt, Shaz, Dupree, Pouncey, Decastro, Gilbert, Bell, and either VW or Cockrell.

I think Ben and/or Harrison would just retire. I don't see the risk of losing Landry. And most everyone else falls into the 1st/2nd year player pool.

[teegre]

It's all about the trenches:


AV
Pouncey
DeCastro
Gilbert
Tuitt
Heyward
Dupree


...and the phenoms...
AB
Bell
Shazier

[steelreserve]

Ben
Bell
Brown
Burns
Shazier
Dupree
Watt
Tuitt
Heyward
Hargreaves

What? No Pouncey, AV, DeCastro? Damn right. Why? We'd almost certainly only lose one, and that's not worth three of the 10 spots to prevent. We've already shown we can make the line work when it's missing a player.

[teegre]

NOTE: The last two posts are the two opposing ends of the O-line spectrum.

[Steeldude]

BR
Brown
Shazier
Bell
Hargraves
Tuitt
Heyward
Pouncey
Harrison
Gilbert

Could make a case for Cockrell

[teegre]

Some of you have listed Davis, Burns, Hargrave, and/or Watt.

No need.

One of the rules outlined in Alex's article is that first- & second-year players are already exempt.

[Born2Steel]

It's all about the trenches:


AV
Pouncey
DeCastro
Gilbert
Tuitt
Heyward
Dupree


...and the phenoms...
AB
Bell
Shazier

LOL. Neither of us put Foster. And although he has a pretty decent backup, why not Ramone 'The Forgotten' Foster? He run blocks, pass blocks, pulls, he does it all.

[teegre]

LOL. Neither of us put Foster. And although he has a pretty decent backup, why not Ramone 'The Forgotten' Foster? He run blocks, pass blocks, pulls, he does it all.

I originally had Foster on there (all five starting O-linemen).

But, his age made him a calculated risk. I figure that an expansion team would want as many young players as possible. (And, if not, Finney is pretty darn good.)

[steelreserve]

Keep in mind, the way an expansion draft usually works is that you can only take one player from each team, or that you can't take a second player from a team until you've taken from all the others. It's not as if there'd be any chance of losing, say, the entire offensive line or even most of it. That's pretty important in the way this plays out.

I totally missed the part about first- and second-year players being exempt, so my list would probably then go:

Ben
Bell
Brown
Shazier
Tuitt
Heyward
Dupree
Bryant
V. Williams
Mitchell

The key question to answer is: Where would it hurt us the most to lose one starter? Well, that list is in order.

Are Pouncey or DeCastro among our 10 most skilled players at their positions? Definitely. Would losing one of them be as impactful as losing one of our three DL starters or LBs who have no depth behind them? Absolutely not. I mean, we've seen what happens in each of those situations very recently, and the results are clear.

We can fill a hole on the OL, and honestly losing someone who's making $10M to fill one OL position could have its silver lining. If anyone on the OL, I'd be protecting Gilbert or Villanueva, who not only play very well but are affordable.

[polamalubeast]

Keep in mind, the way an expansion draft usually works is that you can only take one player from each team, or that you can't take a second player from a team until you've taken from all the others. It's not as if there'd be any chance of losing, say, the entire offensive line or even most of it. That's pretty important in the way this plays out.

I totally missed the part about first- and second-year players being exempt, so my list would probably then go:

Ben
Bell
Brown
Shazier
Tuitt
Heyward
Dupree
Bryant
V. Williams
Mitchell

The key question to answer is: Where would it hurt us the most to lose one starter? Well, that list is in order.

Are Pouncey or DeCastro among our 10 most skilled players at their positions? Definitely. Would losing one of them be as impactful as losing one of our three DL starters or LBs who have no depth behind them? Absolutely not. I mean, we've seen what happens in each of those situations very recently, and the results are clear.We can fill a hole on the OL, and honestly losing someone who's making $10M to fill one OL position could have its silver lining. If anyone on the OL, I'd be protecting Gilbert or Villanueva, who not only play very well but are affordable.

Yes, but we can say the same about Bell in 2015, when the steelers were great on offense in the second half of the season without him

Or in 2016, when the steelers were in the AFC title game without Bryant and Heyward.

[steelreserve]

Yes, but we can say the same about Bell in 2015, when the steelers were great on offense in the second half of the season without him

Or in 2016, when the steelers were in the AFC title game without Bryant and Heyward.

In 2015, we had a capable and proven backup to Bell; we do not now, and even then it was definitely a noticeable difference. In 2016, we were barely making things work at WR and DL by the end of the season, not excelling at them. When Pouncey got hurt, the OL had one of its best seasons in years.

The difference between OL and most other positions is: Getting good results depends mainly on the skill floor of your worst player, not the skill cap of your best player. Of course it helps to have a star player or two, but you can do just great if everyone is at least acceptable. Mostly you don't want that one incompetent player who will be the leak that sinks the ship. The defensive backfield also kind of works this way, except that a true star player can also be more of a difference-maker.

[86WARD]

Ben, Bell, AB, Harrison, Bryant, DeCastro, Pouncey, Shazier, Heyward, Tuitt. I went for accomplishment over potential on this one

I would do this but put Dupree in place of Harrison. With this being Silverbacks last season, doubtful anyone would select him.

[teegre]

With this being Silverbacks last season, doubtful anyone would select him.

That is my exact rationale.

[Craic]

I originally had Foster on there (all five starting O-linemen).

But, his age made him a calculated risk. I figure that an expansion team would want as many young players as possible. (And, if not, Finney is pretty darn good.)

If I were drafting for an expansion team, I would select several older players, however. The locker room needs immediate leadership, and that can only come from players that have been in the league for quite some time. I might even go so far as to pick an older player for each corps—DL, LB, CB, Safeties, OL, WRs, RBs, and TEs. That'd give me eight guys just hitting thirty or older who can train up the younger guys while providing leadership now. For the QBs, I'd depend more on the QB coach.

[teegre]

If I were drafting for an expansion team, I would select several older players, however. The locker room needs immediate leadership, and that can only come from players that have been in the league for quite some time. I might even go so far as to pick an older player for each corps—DL, LB, CB, Safeties, OL, WRs, RBs, and TEs. That'd give me eight guys just hitting thirty or older who can train up the younger guys while providing leadership now. For the QBs, I'd depend more on the QB coach.

Very true.

Ergo, were I the GM, I'd take as many veteran O-linemen as I could. First, they're usually smarter and/or team leaders. Secondly, they can play a looong time. Last but not least, you'll likely be able to draft a top 5 QB, and you'd need to protect him.

[Craic]

Very true.

Ergo, were I the GM, I'd take as many veteran O-linemen as I could. First, they're usually smarter and/or team leaders. Secondly, they can play a looong time. Last but not least, you'll likely be able to draft a top 5 QB, and you'd need to protect him.

I've thought about that, too. How many QBs drafted by expansion teams did well in the NFL? I think David Carr is probably the best one, unless you want to go back to Jim Zorn in Seattle, and was average at best. So, I think I'd actually trade away my number 1 pick for low-mid number one, a number one the following year, and maybe a 2 if I could get it. Then, I'd focus on getting a couple of bruising running backs and go into the season with a focus on 3 yards and a cloud of dust football—playing ball control, and building up my defense. The second year, I'd spend the first round pick on a QB, and the extra first round pick on the biggest glaring hole necessary to fix in order for the QB to be successful.

[teegre]

I've thought about that, too. How many QBs drafted by expansion teams did well in the NFL? I think David Carr is probably the best one, unless you want to go back to Jim Zorn in Seattle, and was average at best. So, I think I'd actually trade away my number 1 pick for low-mid number one, a number one the following year, and maybe a 2 if I could get it. Then, I'd focus on getting a couple of bruising running backs and go into the season with a focus on 3 yards and a cloud of dust football—playing ball control, and building up my defense. The second year, I'd spend the first round pick on a QB, and the extra first round pick on the biggest glaring hole necessary to fix in order for the QB to be successful.

Most of the expansion teams sucked at the QB position, because a) they drafted the wrong one (Tim Couch) or b) they didn't protect him (David Carr holds the record for number of times sacked in a season).

The vast majority of starting QBs in the NFL were drafted in the top 5. Roethlisberger at 11 and Rodgers at 24 are slight exceptions. Carr, Brees, & Dalton were definitely exceptions (drafted outside of R1). And, Wilson, Prescott, & Brady are the anomalies.

SUMMATION:
If you are (un)lucky enough to have the #1 overall, you use it on a QB... just make sure he's the right one.

Now... let's say that it is 2013 or 1996 (no QB worthy of even going in R1). Then, yes, you trade away the pick for additional picks.

[steelreserve]

The vast majority of starting QBs in the NFL were drafted in the top 5. Roethlisberger at 11 and Rodgers at 24 are slight exceptions. Carr, Brees, & Dalton were definitely exceptions (drafted outside of R1). And, Wilson, Prescott, & Brady are the anomalies.

That's eight quarterbacks who are exceptions. By definition, there are 16 above-average quarterbacks in the league. That's half, so not an exception.

Of course you're going to have better odds when you have your pick out of everyone available, but looking for a QB outside the top 5 is not the complete write-off that some would make it out to be.

As for trading back, I didn't think expansion teams were allowed to trade their #1 pick.

[teegre]

That's eight quarterbacks who are exceptions. By definition, there are 16 above-average quarterbacks in the league. That's half, so not an exception.

Starting bersus above-average are two different things.

Alex Smith is starting, but he's not above average. (He might be average, but he's certainly not above.)

[Craic]

As for trading back, I didn't think expansion teams were allowed to trade their #1 pick.

That would change things.

[teegre]

@steelreserve

My use of "vast majority" was admittedly an exercise in hyperbole. Right before the draft, we were talking about R1 QBs, and the "vast majority" of starting QBs were drafted at pick 36 or higher.

That said, I still contend that a "majority" of the starters are top 5 picks.

TOP 5:
Wentz
Goff
Mariota
Winston
Luck
E.Manning
Rivers
A.Smith
Bradford
Stafford
Palmer
Ryan
Newton
Bortles
*Trubisky

TOP 11:
Tannehill
Roethlisberger

FIRST ROUND:
Rodgers
Flacco
*Watson

VERY EARLY R2:
Brees 33
Dalton 35
Carr 36

OUTLIERS:
Brady
Wilson
Prescott
Cousins

STILL SEARCHING:
Browns
Bills
Broncos
Niners
Jets

[Six Rings]

@steelreserve

My use of "vast majority" was admittedly an exercise in hyperbole. Right before the draft, we were talking about R1 QBs, and the "vast majority" of starting QBs were drafted at pick 36 or higher.

That said, I still contend that a "majority" of the starters are top 5 picks.

TOP 5:
Wentz
Goff
Mariota
Winston
Luck
E.Manning
Rivers
A.Smith
Bradford
Stafford
Palmer
Ryan
Newton
Bortles
*Trubisky

TOP 11:
Tannehill
Roethlisberger

FIRST ROUND:
Rodgers
Flacco
*Watson

VERY EARLY R2:
Brees 33
Dalton 35
Carr 36

OUTLIERS:
Brady
Wilson
Prescott
Cousins

STILL SEARCHING:
Browns
Bills
Broncos
Niners
Jets

Very interesting. However the best QB's in the game were not picked in the top five for the most part.

IMO, the best QB's right now are:

Rogers
Brady
Ben
Brees
Carr

You could argue Rivers or E Manning for the 5th spot too.

- - - Updated - - -

My ten

Ben
AB
Bell
Bryant
Gilbert
DeCastro
Heyward
Shazier
Dupree
Burns


Who did not make the cut.

Pouncey. He's injury prone, a tad over paid ( 4th highest paid player not he team in 2017 ) and has been adequacy replaced by a journeyman. He might not play in the NFL beyond 2019 when his contract is up.

Tuitt. He has the upside, but I liked to see just a bit more and I already picked 1 DL player