So, as I don't watch college FB, I tend not to read up on college players until after the draft because there's just too many to learn about in order to speak smartly about any of them. Of course, I'll choose a position now and then and give it a look, but . . .
Now that we've picked Watt, I've given his tape a look, and like the title says, I'm not too impressed. I'll go through his 2016 highlights and share what I'm seeing. (Note, after the first couple of vids, I slowed it down to .75 percent speed, so it might look strange when you click the link).
1. This sack came against a player with bad mechanics. And worse, it looked like the player was only intending to chip him (not that it was the play, but that's how bad the OT was on the play). Yet, Watt is slowed down by the guy and the has to hustle to get to the QB. Moreover, it took over three seconds to get the QB. That isn't going to to happen in the NFL, even playing against the bad teams. NFL QBs get the ball out much faster.
2. In this sack, he has a decent dip inside before going outside, but it is nowhere near fast enough against TEs and RBs (this was against a RB). Moreover, he doesn't power through the RB, but runs around him because the RB came up too far and ended up out of position to block. Part of that is Watt's dip, but part of it is more bad blocking mechanics.*
3. Here, we have a Pick Six. Good reaction by Watt, and he shows good hands. However, what concerns me more is the way the RB actually moves him before Watt sheds him and runs towards the QB.
4. Now, we have a tackle for a loss. It looks good, until you watch the OT who completely whiffs on the block. Again, it isn't because of a move or explosive speed. It's due to back mechanics.
5. Watt knocks down this pass. But what is really concerning is the first highlight I see where he's going against a OT who has decent mechanics, Watt gets owned. He's completely out of the play except for a bad choice by the QB.
6. Similar to five, good fundamentals stymies Watt in this play. The upback puts him completely on his heels. It's only because of a bad decision by the RB that Watt can dive sideways and make a tackle.
7. Here, we're back to OTs with questionable mechanics. I'll give Watt more credit on this one as it looks as though he got the OT off balance a bit. One thing I do see that I like very much is that he runs through the hold.
8. This play is just horrid. Watt gets juked, hard, but manages to get his hands on the ball-carriers arm (or ball) and knock it loose. If he doesn't make that strip, he's left watching his teammates covering for him.
9. Watt is second man in on this play. However, finally, I can say something good about him. The OT (I beleive, since it's on the other side of the field from the camera) comes up and looks to be in good position. He has a slow punch, and goes high instead of to the chest, but nevertheless, Watt meets him and overpowers him—the first time I've seen him do it on this highlight reel. Then, he steps inside and back out to get to the QB and finish up a sack. Nice play.
10. This sack comes off a six-man blitz. Watt comes up the middle and hits the RB, pushing him to the side. Not bad at all, but what I'm looking for here is a man vs. boy scenario, and I don't see it. Why am I looking for that? Because NFL RBs will be much better. I think he gets stymied if this is an NFL back here.
11. Here, he's stunting to the OT so the outside guy can come inside. Nice positioning hitting the OT on the inside shoulder to move him before stepping through. But this power move just isn't powerful enough for the next level. What I do have to commend him on again, is his motor.
12. To be fair, he's not expected to get to the QB this time, but he does. It's another crossing stunt and at first, he's double teamed. He doesn't beat the double team, but he does keep awareness of the play and when the QB steps up, he moves to the inside, around another lineman, and gets the sack.
13. Here, we're back to getting stymied by an OT that has decent technique. He gets the sack purely because of a bad decision on the QB in where he steps up. Watt is taken completely out of the play otherwise.
14. This sack is a mix of bad technique by the OT and good play by Watt. The OT comes up way too far (bad technique). Watt takes advantage of it and explodes into his chest, driving him backwards right to the QB. The bad technique makes this play not as impressive as it first looked, but it's still nice to see Watt able take advantage of the mistake.
On the last two plays of this video, Watt has a nice knockdown from the middle of the scrum, and then he comes in off the edge to tack the RB.
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So, what am I seeing? Most of Watts sacks came against bad technique. They were sacks where he took advantage of what players gave him, rather than sacks where he created the opportunity himself. That really scares me if he's our first round draft pick. Moreover, in the sack where he moves past the RB, while he created the opportunity, he did it against a player that is not NFL caliber for blocking, yet he didn't look completely dominant against the guy (the man v. boy thing).
He does have a good motor, and he also has good football sense, it seems. But he's going to need a year or two to put muscle on that frame before he'll be effective in a way that we want him to be. I honestly think he's a 3-5 year project, and should have gone perhaps 3-4 round—maybe second if he showed something at the combine or pro-day that shows he's already taking steps mentioned here. But from where I sit now, this was as much of a reach as the Mahome pick earlier tonight, maybe even more.
In short, unless he busts his rear-end in the weight room and also with speed coaches, we've just drafted Jarvis Jones 2.0.
Now . . . the one thing that stands out about him that makes the prior statement not as bad, is his motor. The kid never quits. If he carries that into the weight room and puts the work in both there and with coaches for developing quick-twitch muscle so he can get faster, I think he has the ability to be a decent starter. I honestly don't, however, think he has the ability to be a first-round worthy draft choice.
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Originally Posted by Mojouw
