TJ Watt: Not too Impressed with His Tape

[Dwinsgames]

I can see a lot of what you're saying. But his combine #s were almost better than anyone else in the class and compare favorably with guys like Mack and Von Miller. I suspect that his technique is simply underdeveloped as he has no time in the position. Raw with upside. Basically the new Steelers model in the draft.

and that is the problem allowing combine numbers to overrule what is on tape , that is a failed scouting technique and proven to be the quickest way to land players who do not make the grade at the next level ...

combine numbers set teams up to fail with picks if those numbers do not show up on tape ... In Watts case people will use the excuse he only has a years worth of tape and is learning the position so he will get better ( and he may ) but its fair to say there is an equal shot that he won't ..

I have never said he is a bad player but I have maintained he is to raw to select at 30 ( prior to the pick )

Takk McKinley was my player based on TAPE ... (based on post draft interview I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole ) so while I am not happy about the Watt selection I would have only been momentarily happy with Takk

at this moment I would rather have taken Obi and hoped for Lawson or Rivers at 62

Watt is the Mitch Trubisky of Linebackers , sure he has a chance but its a big gamble and with first round picks I would rather place my chips on a player with better odds of paying off

[teegre]

I think Watt could do it. UW moved him around a bit once Cichy went down for the year. Look, when I watch Watt, I see Clay Matthews and not just because they are kinda goofy moving white guys. Both have the trend that their best skill is rushing the passer, but they can do it from inside or out. Both can defend the pass a bit and both can do other LB things besides just line up and rush the passer.

I think the best thing about Watt, as a prospect, is that his ceiling might not be in the stratosphere like Garret or even Tak --- but his floor is really high. Like the worst you are getting is a 6 sack guy that anchors against the run, is position flexible, and can swat passes. I know that isn't a 1st round pick, but Watt in my opinion was the least risky of the OLB prospects.

So... you're saying there's a chance.


Good post.

[Psycho Ward 86]

and that is the problem allowing combine numbers to overrule what is on tape , that is a failed scouting technique and proven to be the quickest way to land players who do not make the grade at the next level ...

combine numbers set teams up to fail with picks if those numbers do not show up on tape ... In Watts case people will use the excuse he only has a years worth of tape and is learning the position so he will get better ( and he may ) but its fair to say there is an equal shot that he won't ..

I have never said he is a bad player but I have maintained he is to raw to select at 30 ( prior to the pick )

Takk McKinley was my player based on TAPE ... (based on post draft interview I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole ) so while I am not happy about the Watt selection I would have only been momentarily happy with Takk

at this moment I would rather have taken Obi and hoped for Lawson or Rivers at 62

Watt is the Mitch Trubisky of Linebackers , sure he has a chance but its a big gamble and with first round picks I would rather place my chips on a player with better odds of paying off

What games of Takk and Watt are you watching? Tomlin/Colbert kind of put it best, that Watt is more inexperienced than raw. Takk is straight up raw. He gets pushed up the arc quite a bit. He rushes the passer standing straight up, cant bend, is kind of so-so at recalibrating himself when he tries to counter. His hand fighting is far less nuanced than TJ. Not sure what you're seeing here and from what games.

In Takk's defense though, I think people (in general) are being really ridiculous about criticizing him in his post interview. Really guys? The dude grew up in Compton, arguably the roughest neighborhood out there and his grandmother helped him get where he is today and she just died. Yeah, I might lose my composure a little bit too. Ive heard a lot less criticism for actually bad things. This guy was more likely to be out on the streets trapping than make it to the NFL as a highly rated prospect.

Swearing a few times and telling America that he plays football for his grandmother is very low on my list of negatives but thats just me. Takk deserved plus marks for character and work ethic before and that doesnt change for me.

[Dwinsgames]

What games of Takk and Watt are you watching? Tomlin/Colbert kind of put it best, that Watt is more inexperienced than raw. Takk is straight up raw. He gets pushed up the arc quite a bit. He rushes the passer standing straight up, cant bend, is kind of so-so at recalibrating himself when he tries to counter. His hand fighting is far less nuanced than TJ. Not sure what you're seeing here and from what games.

In Takk's defense though, I think people (in general) are being really ridiculous about criticizing him in his post interview. Really guys? The dude grew up in Compton, arguably the roughest neighborhood out there and his grandmother helped him get where he is today and she just died. Yeah, I might lose my composure a little bit too. Ive heard a lot less criticism for actually bad things. This guy was more likely to be out on the streets trapping than make it to the NFL as a highly rated prospect.

Swearing a few times and telling America that he plays football for his grandmother is very low on my list of negatives but thats just me. Takk deserved plus marks for character and work ethic before and that doesnt change for me.

For Takk
ASU
Stanford
and a couple others along with all the highlights I could find

for Watt
LSU
Michigan
and highlights

[zulater]

Chidi (aka Alex Kozaro of Steelers depot) says it was the right pick, so I'll go with him for now. He breaks down the film pretty well, he put an article up today explaining it.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/04...expected-pick/

[st33lersguy]

How about a more athletic Clay Matthews?

[BurghBoy412]

I'm not a big Watt guy but I trust that Colbert, Tomlin, and the bunch know what they're doing. I really like the fact that Harrison is still there to help him along as well.

[Born2Steel]

Just wait until you see his Steeler tape. Get ready to be impressed.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I'm not a big Watt guy but I trust that Colbert, Tomlin, and the bunch know what they're doing. I really like the fact that Harrison is still there to help him along as well.

the mentorship connected to this team is insane. JJ Watt for TJ Watt, Chuck Smith for Bud Dupree, and James Harrison for...well everybody

[Craic]

Wait, weren't many here saying just the other day that the combine is pretty much outdated because it tests athleticism and not football? So, in an age when we have tape on everyone, it's a worthless endeavor only being carried on by that Evil Goodell guy to squeeze a few more bucks from fans (I think that was the gist of the opinions). I find it funny, because what we have here is simply a result of the measurements of the combine. It has nothing to do with gametape in which I see the exact same thing happening to Watt that I did with Jones.

[Craic]

Those of you that are seeing a player that won't make a difference or comparing him to Jones need to take a breath. Everything is going to be fine. Give this kid just a little time to work, and you will see some good things happening very quickly.

I see tons of upside. He has so much more to learn at the position and his technique and use of hands is only going to get better....plus he's going to get stronger.

This kid will be at worst a very good player in the NFL IMO.

If this first line was directed at me, then could you go back and re-read my posts, please? Because I'm talking about the here and now. Not what he might be in the future. However, even switching from TE to LB, certain things will switch with you, like speed and strength, neither of which I saw at an elite level I'd expect for a first round pick.
---------------

Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year before)?

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I think Watt could do it. UW moved him around a bit once Cichy went down for the year. Look, when I watch Watt, I see Clay Matthews and not just because they are kinda goofy moving white guys. Both have the trend that their best skill is rushing the passer, but they can do it from inside or out. Both can defend the pass a bit and both can do other LB things besides just line up and rush the passer.

I think the best thing about Watt, as a prospect, is that his ceiling might not be in the stratosphere like Garret or even Tak --- but his floor is really high. Like the worst you are getting is a 6 sack guy that anchors against the run, is position flexible, and can swat passes. I know that isn't a 1st round pick, but Watt in my opinion was the least risky of the OLB prospects.

I really hope so. I just don't see a floor that high. I see a floor being 1-2 sacks and a guy that can get blocked out of position on runs. His ceiling? Conversely, I think it is probably higher than you do. He has the frame to put on quite a bit of muscle. If he can get that quick twitch to go along with strength, he most definitely has the motor and also the football awareness to make plays all over the field.

[86WARD]

Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year

Is it possibly because people think that the backend of the defense is more of a need and more urgency than the OLB?

[Craic]

Is it possibly because people think that the backend of the defense is more of a need and more urgency than the OLB?

Definitely possible. But our LBs are still the core of our defense, so I think the urgency is still there.

I'm listening to Colbert and Tomlin take about TJ Watt right now (on tape from last night). The funny thing is, I'm hearing a lot of things that are confirming my thoughts on him. High motor, great football acumen, but is a project and was picked for his ceiling, rather than his immediate ability.

The one thing I liked the most (from an earlier video) is that he supposedly loves the weight room. As I've said repeatedly, if that is true, and if he works on his speed as well, I think he has a very high ceiling. Again, I just don't think he's a first rounder. I'd rather we traded down into the top of the second round, picked up another 3rd or fourth round (perhaps a 2 round next year) and see if he's still there. Now that I've seen and heard a bit more on him, I would've been happy with that choice.

[86WARD]

Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?

[Dwinsgames]

Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?

well yea he could be Jarvis was a serviceable backup but you do not draft serviceable in rd1 ( or shouldn't anyways ) , but I do not think he will be worse

[Craic]

Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?

Nope, and thus, my comment about Jarvis 2.0 (at the moment).


I just watched his combine material. I think his 4.84 40 is deceiving and a product of bad form. (A track coach could maybe have shaved a couple tenths off that). He comes up way too fast and because of it, his footwork is slower as he's carrying all his weight, rather than letting gravity pull him forward for those first three or so steps. His work on the cones where he stays down looks quite a bit better.

[Johnkster59]

For Takk
ASU
Stanford
and a couple others along with all the highlights I could find

for Watt
LSU
Michigan
and highlights

Just fyi those were TJ's 1st and 4th games at OLB. He showed marked improvement as the year went on. This pick is a home run. I'm sure many people here have already covered the many reasons why, so I won't double up on it. Suffice it to say that I disagree with the OP on many of his takes from those plays. Side note that RB that you dismiss in the 2nd clip is Saquon Barkley and he will probably be a top 5 pick next year.

You could pretty much copy and past the reactions from people on the Houston Boards after they picked JJ. 'Sure the combine numbers show this guy is one of the best athletes in the world and he has an established work ethic and focus that borders on the insane, but I'm not impressed because half of his 12 sacks weren't impressive enough. I don't think he will ever do much in the League.' Save this thread, it will be good for a laugh in a couple years. Much like this one http://houston.culturemap.com/news/s...lover/#slide=0

[Steelheart]

Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year before)?

Simple answer really. We didn't necessarily have anyone at corner so you would prefer a guy to come in NFL ready. At OLB we have Dupree and Harrison so there is a bit of time for Watt to develop.

[86WARD]

well yea he could be Jarvis was a serviceable backup but you do not draft serviceable in rd1 ( or shouldn't anyways ) , but I do not think he will be worse

But there is the upside which I think is greater than what Jarvis had on draft day...no?

[Dwinsgames]

Simple answer really. We didn't necessarily have anyone at corner so you would prefer a guy to come in NFL ready. At OLB we have Dupree and Harrison so there is a bit of time for Watt to develop.

Reliance on a 38 year old OLB to carry most of the load is not realistic proposition , Granted James Harrison is not you normal 38 year old but I still believe you are asking a lot from a guy who puts it all on the line every play at his age .

I Love James Harrison as much as the next steeler fan but at the end of the day you just have to realize father time is undefeated and knocking at the door

most guys James age have been retired for a half dozen years by now

[Steelheart]

Reliance on a 38 year old OLB to carry most of the load is not realistic proposition , Granted James Harrison is not you normal 38 year old but I still believe you are asking a lot from a guy who puts it all on the line every play at his age .

I Love James Harrison as much as the next steeler fan but at the end of the day you just have to realize father time is undefeated and knocking at the door

most guys James age have been retired for a half dozen years by now

I am not expecting James to be DPotY but I also don't think he is going to fall off a cliff. Main point is, even if Watt has a few rookie bumps in the road you still have James there who isn't going to give you bad snaps.

[Steeldude]

I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

When will pre-season get here? My TV is useless in the off-season.

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But there is the upside which I think is greater than what Jarvis had on draft day...no?

Yes. There is much more upside with Watt.

[Born2Steel]

I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

When will pre-season get here? My TV is useless in the off-season.

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Yes. There is much more upside with Watt.

IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

[BurghBoy412]

the mentorship connected to this team is insane. JJ Watt for TJ Watt, Chuck Smith for Bud Dupree, and James Harrison for...well everybody

Great that our young talent can be around leaders like that! Good things on the horizon!

[BurghBoy412]

I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

Good reason to draft another OLB before the end of this draft. A little insurance policy wouldn't hurt.

[Steeldude]

IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

I doubt they will rotate him in at ILB. He will automatically receive playing time based on his draft status. All remains to be seen.

Usually you can tell in the first year if someone is going to excel as a pass rusher in the NFL. Well, if they are given some playing time that is. Jarvis Jones was a complete eyesore from the start and he didn't improve at all. That was expected by most. With Watt there is more upside. If he can't earn a starting spot in 2018 the Steelers will be drafting another OLB early in 2019.

As of right now I am 40/60 on Watt. But it's just an opinion.

[Craic]

IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

No. Because once again, I thought Watt is a reach in the first round. Sure, I've upgraded my position on him this morning after viewing combine tape and listening to what the coaches like about him. I can see the fast hands and I liked that he seemed faster at the combine. But to me, he's still no better than a middle second round pick. Had we traded down into the second and taken a third and fourth, or even a third and fifth; or had we picked someone else and then paired our last third round with our second and came up to the middle of the second round to get him, I'd be happy with it.

But straight up first round? For what he brings to the table right now? No. (IMO)

[Mojouw]

Wait, weren't many here saying just the other day that the combine is pretty much outdated because it tests athleticism and not football? So, in an age when we have tape on everyone, it's a worthless endeavor only being carried on by that Evil Goodell guy to squeeze a few more bucks from fans (I think that was the gist of the opinions). I find it funny, because what we have here is simply a result of the measurements of the combine. It has nothing to do with gametape in which I see the exact same thing happening to Watt that I did with Jones.

I mean I guess some believe that. For me, tape and the combine are attempting to assess and quantify two different things. The combine and pro days let us see if a player has the baseline athleticism to make plays in the NFL. I bet there is some dude out there who can catch 4 footballs at the same time with one leg tied to the other but he runs a 40 in 8.6 seconds - so that doesn't matter. Tape lets you determine if that athleticism is translating at all to the football field. The problem is that both can lie to you.

Take Jarvis Jones (dear good someone please take him!). His tape "lied". He was consistently "schemed" as the "playmaker" for his college team. Most of his plays came after others had done the dirty work and he cleaned up often unblocked. That don't work in the NFL. Jones simply wasn't a good enough athlete to beat NFL players one on one. Combine testing should have and did catch that - but everyone kept getting entranced by the tape/stats.

All I am saying with Watt is that many of the issues that are being raised can be explained be either inexperience/poor technique OR bad athlete. His testing #'s say it is not "bad athlete". So with intensive coaching on the foundations of his position -- his issues get cleaned up and then where is the ceiling?

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Definitely possible. But our LBs are still the core of our defense, so I think the urgency is still there.

I'm listening to Colbert and Tomlin take about TJ Watt right now (on tape from last night). The funny thing is, I'm hearing a lot of things that are confirming my thoughts on him. High motor, great football acumen, but is a project and was picked for his ceiling, rather than his immediate ability.

The one thing I liked the most (from an earlier video) is that he supposedly loves the weight room. As I've said repeatedly, if that is true, and if he works on his speed as well, I think he has a very high ceiling. Again, I just don't think he's a first rounder. I'd rather we traded down into the top of the second round, picked up another 3rd or fourth round (perhaps a 2 round next year) and see if he's still there. Now that I've seen and heard a bit more on him, I would've been happy with that choice.

For me the "project" nature of a player isn't a problem -- as long as it pans out. I think that about 3-6 rookies per year come out of school ready to be difference making contributors Day 1. I want my team to pick the player who will be the most impactful (is that a word?) in Years 3-5. If that is the same guy that has the most impact in Year 1 - BONUS. But I think drafting for immediate impact is how you end up being the Cleveland Browns, Jags, or some other shitty franchise.

[Mojouw]

Okay, so its this kind of nonsense that gets me all twisted up:

"Analysis from NFL Network draft analyst Lance Zierlein: "I like T.J. Watt, but I don't think he's a great pass rusher. ... He's got some skills and is developing. I think he's going to end up being a much better player than he is right now, but I do think the Steelers are a pretty good fit for him."

What does that even mean? He's not great now? Or he won't be great ever? How much of a better player? It is basically a non-sense statement that I can only translate as:

This gets a bad grade from me because the player won't dominate in 2017 so therefore the grade is blllllleeeeeee. However, said player may be really good in the future -- but screw that 2017 is all that matters?

By this logic, Aaron Rodgers was a bad pick and so were Troy Aikman, Petyon Manning, JJ Watt, and Troy Polamalu. But this jack-ass gets paid to watch football for a living and I have to go to work each day. Plus wasn't his old man the dude who got caught emailing porn and driving around without pants?

[Craic]

I mean I guess some believe that. For me, tape and the combine are attempting to assess and quantify two different things. The combine and pro days let us see if a player has the baseline athleticism to make plays in the NFL. I bet there is some dude out there who can catch 4 footballs at the same time with one leg tied to the other but he runs a 40 in 8.6 seconds - so that doesn't matter. Tape lets you determine if that athleticism is translating at all to the football field. The problem is that both can lie to you.

Take Jarvis Jones (dear good someone please take him!). His tape "lied". He was consistently "schemed" as the "playmaker" for his college team. Most of his plays came after others had done the dirty work and he cleaned up often unblocked. That don't work in the NFL. Jones simply wasn't a good enough athlete to beat NFL players one on one. Combine testing should have and did catch that - but everyone kept getting entranced by the tape/stats.

All I am saying with Watt is that many of the issues that are being raised can be explained be either inexperience/poor technique OR bad athlete. His testing #'s say it is not "bad athlete". So with intensive coaching on the foundations of his position -- his issues get cleaned up and then where is the ceiling?

Actually, no. The problems I saw was that he was out-muscled by anyone with decent technique and that most of his sacks came from miscues on the O line, not from him creating opportunities. I think I saw three sacks where he actually created the opportunity himself, one of those, however, was helped by bad technique (Watt still showed good power on that one, however), and the other other was simply an overmatched RB, something we won't see much of in the NFL. So no, the problem isn't inexperience or bad technique on Watt. For me, the problem was the fact he didn't put enough on tape where he created opportunities himself in order to warrant being drafted this high.

For me the "project" nature of a player isn't a problem -- as long as it pans out. I think that about 3-6 rookies per year come out of school ready to be difference making contributors Day 1. I want my team to pick the player who will be the most impactful (is that a word?) in Years 3-5. If that is the same guy that has the most impact in Year 1 - BONUS. But I think drafting for immediate impact is how you end up being the Cleveland Browns, Jags, or some other shitty franchise.

I personally don't expect any player to be ready on day one. I do, however, expect first round players to make a few plays later in the season and flash what the future may hold. For me, project player is someone you plan on stashing away for three or so years and trying to coach them up int a position. I do not expect my first round draft picks to be project players. I want to see a significant leap between year one and year two, and another leap between year two and three, which is where NFL players really begin to hit their stride.

What is Watt going to be? Who knows. He's still young. At 22, there's a good chance he still fills out naturally (regardless of weight room ethic) and he has a ton of time and good people to learn from.

Make no mistake, when camp begins, I'll be his biggest fan. But even if he becomes the next great Steelers linebacker and carries the mantle for a decade and a half, unless he begins that reign this year, I'll still argue that without the benefit of hindsight, Watt in round 1 was a reach.

At least I didn't say Waybe Gretzky won't amount to much in the NFL. . . (Yeah, a buddy's father wears that shame).