Rookie Year Impact versus Impact Rookie

[Mojouw]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2455602-great-draft-class-doesnt-matter-rookies-rarely-have-an-immediate-impact

The article is a few years out of date, but the underlying trends and data are sound. What does it say? It basically argues that outside of a few guys each season, that "...Even an outstanding draft might add no more than half a game to a team's expected record." Further the data shows that, "...The good news of this study is that NFL players still develop into stars over the course of a season or two, and championships are won by stringing together several productive draft classes."

So what does that mean for the Steelers? It means that 2015's and 2016's draft classes will have far more of an impact on this season than 2017's will.

I think we all need to reign it in a bit with the "they must select an impact XXX with YYY pick talk. Because unless they trade for Myles Garrett or a new starting QB, the player they select is likely to have very little impact on the W-L record of the 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers. But they could have a significant impact in 2018 and beyond.

If the Defense is going to take the next step in aiding in a deep playoff run, then that uptick in production will come far more from Dupree, Burns, Davis, Shazier, Tuitt, Hargrave, and Cockrell than likely anyone picked in this draft. On offense, look for a boost from Rogers, Coates, James, and/or Severin prior to some 3rd round RB.

[polamalubeast]

The steelers had 3 rookies in defense with a lot of snap in 2016, especially in the second half of the season, I do not think our rookies had very little impact on our second half of the season last year....

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Martavis Bryant had also a huge impact in 2014(8-2 with him with 31 PPG,3-3 without him with 20 PPG)

[Mojouw]

The steelers had 3 rookies in defense with a lot of snap in 2016, especially in the second half of the season, I do not think our rookies had very little impact on our second half of the season last year....

As the article says, defense is the hardest to evaluate. The point is that say the Steelers draft "Pass Rusher B" and install him as a rotational rusher across from Dupree. He is highly unlikely to have more than a handful of sacks and tackles for a loss in his rookie year. Now, by almost any metric that is an EXCELLENT rookie year for a pass rusher in the NFL. However, one sack every 3 games is unlikely to really move the needle on whether or not the Pittsburgh Steelers go 10-6, 9-7, or 12-4 in 2017.

But if Dupree comes out of the gates with his hair on fire and stays healthy and racks up 12 sacks with Shazier playing like a fringe DPOY candidate and Burns starts locking up #1 WRs Ike Taylor style with Davis become a disruptive force anywhere on the field between the LB and DB level - well then those will have a MASSIVE impact on the 2017 team's W-L record.

The draft is crucial, but I do not think that any single player that is selected in a few weeks will be the "missing piece" to the 2017 puzzle. They may be as early as 2018, but not 2017.

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Martavis Bryant had also a huge impact in 2014(8-2 with him with 31 PPG,3-3 without him with 20 PPG)

Bryant's rookie year contributions were astonishing. But from a larger league wide "analytics" (Oh NO! A math word!) perspective, it might as well as had "OUTLIER" stamped on it in neon letters.

Can it happen? Absolutely. But if it does not happen, it doesn't mean that Colbert and company have gotten the draft "wrong".

[polamalubeast]

I not ask to be a superstar but if 2-3 players contributes for the steelers in 2017 like in 2016, I'll be happy and I think it's possible.

[Born2Steel]

The Bryant example is why I think that round 3 RB/WR/TE CAN have that kind of impact on a season. Our defense has improved over the past 2 seasons and with our young guns getting more experience, I see no reason why it won't improve again. True, I do want more consistent pass rush, and immediately. However, I also want to be the team that puts 40pts on the board 3 out of 4 games this season. We must have more weapons to accomplish that, IMO.

[Craic]

Two to three years.

Hmm.

So much for declaring a draft pick a bust after a third of his first season. I remember people being quite down on Burns and Davis, Davis especially for missing tackles (which is an adjustment to NFL speed thing). The way they're going to impact the game this year and next year is exciting.

[ALLD]

I remember Earl Campbell's rookie year more recently. Franco Harris had a pretty good rookie season too, but didn't catch many passes out of the backfield.

[polamalubeast]

I remember Earl Campbell's rookie year more recently. Franco Harris had a pretty good rookie season too, but didn't catch many passes out of the backfield.

[Dwinsgames]

with a broad brush I think the OP makes pretty accurate points , mind you with the broad brush ...

however if painting with a smaller brush you can clearly find examples that are of the exact opposite of the broad brush painting ...

we need to find a couple players that paint with the narrower brush , we sort of did that last year with several draft picks , if we can duplicate that or even come close I think we will be in pretty good shape

[BurghBoy412]

Excited to see Eli Rogers next year!

[steelerdude15]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2455602-great-draft-class-doesnt-matter-rookies-rarely-have-an-immediate-impact

The article is a few years out of date, but the underlying trends and data are sound. What does it say? It basically argues that outside of a few guys each season, that "...Even an outstanding draft might add no more than half a game to a team's expected record." Further the data shows that, "...The good news of this study is that NFL players still develop into stars over the course of a season or two, and championships are won by stringing together several productive draft classes."

So what does that mean for the Steelers? It means that 2015's and 2016's draft classes will have far more of an impact on this season than 2017's will.

I think we all need to reign it in a bit with the "they must select an impact XXX with YYY pick talk. Because unless they trade for Myles Garrett or a new starting QB, the player they select is likely to have very little impact on the W-L record of the 2017 Pittsburgh Steelers. But they could have a significant impact in 2018 and beyond.

If the Defense is going to take the next step in aiding in a deep playoff run, then that uptick in production will come far more from Dupree, Burns, Davis, Shazier, Tuitt, Hargrave, and Cockrell than likely anyone picked in this draft. On offense, look for a boost from Rogers, Coates, James, and/or Severin prior to some 3rd round RB.

I'm hoping for a big jump in production from those guys this year. I think they could be the leaders/playmakers of the future for the defense.

[Craic]

Excited to see Eli Rogers next year!

Exactly. And the year after. If we get Bryant back, he's going to pull coverage just like AB pulls coverage. Imagine having Bryant, Bell, and Brown on the field, and Rogers running underneath? With an O line that can now block, the sky is the limit.

[BurghBoy412]

Exactly. And the year after. If we get Bryant back, he's going to pull coverage just like AB pulls coverage. Imagine having Bryant, Bell, and Brown on the field, and Rogers running underneath? With an O line that can now block, the sky is the limit.

I still feel like we should only focus on the fact that Bryant hasn't been reinstated.

[Steelersfan]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2455602-great-draft-class-doesnt-matter-rookies-rarely-have-an-immediate-impact

The article is a few years out of date, but the underlying trends and data are sound. What does it say? It basically argues that outside of a few guys each season, that "...Even an outstanding draft might add no more than half a game to a team's expected record."

Last years Dallas draft says "HI"!!! Your point is well taken though, AND 100% correct. I can't stop my mind from having "HIGH HOPES" though. Another draft like last year will do wonders for this team next season if the health gods stay on our side. BUT, most importantly, in-line with the point of your post; another draft as good as last years will 100% put this team into SB contender, every year, well into the future.

I'm not asking for a HallaFamer rookie season from any draft picks. If we can get a pass rusher that's somewhat disruptive by the end of the year's playoff push, I will be happy, as long as the rest of the draft picks have the future potential that you speak of.

[Mojouw]

Last years Dallas draft says "HI"!!! Your point is well taken though, AND 100% correct. I can't stop my mind from having "HIGH HOPES" though. Another draft like last year will do wonders for this team next season if the health gods stay on our side. BUT, most importantly, in-line with the point of your post; another draft as good as last years will 100% put this team into SB contender, every year, well into the future.

I'm not asking for a HallaFamer rookie season from any draft picks. If we can get a pass rusher that's somewhat disruptive by the end of the year's playoff push, I will be happy, as long as the rest of the draft picks have the future potential that you speak of.

Yah, Dallas last year kinda throws the whole thing off. As well as the contribution that Atlanta got from young players on defense. But in general I agree with what you just posted. If they can get a class even within shouting distance of last years - well look out!

[86WARD]

This is what I consistently say and why I feel that they needed to add veteran help. Veterans can make that impact instantly...more so than a rookie can. I hunk they made a possible mistake not adding veteran help at LBs and CBs. Having Davis, Burns and Hargrave make an impact in 2016 was an anomaly...it's not going to happen again and the impatient fan base is most likely going to take it out on the next rookie class if they grow with the natural curve.

[Six Rings]

Burns, Davis, and Hargrave played a lot as a rookie, partly because we didn't have better players ahead of them.


Burns I think has real size and ball skills. When he sees the pass coming his way, he can make things happen. Cornerback is a very hard position for a rookie to play well. Consistency is the key for Burns.


Davis, I'm still not sold on as he dropped more interceptions than he made and missed some tackles. On the plus side, he was solid later in the year and offered value as a Blitzer.


Hargrave surprised me a bit with his ability to occupy blockers and play the run. He has good value as a DT in our 4 man rotation, with some pass rush ability.