Originally Posted by
teegre
Ah... got it.
As I'm pushing the "YAC per reception" button, I notice some things:
1. The top player on the list is Tyrell Williams, who I saw score an 80-yard TD... and, only one other reception. My thought (which you also thought of) about that is that players with fewer receptions can have their YAC average skewed by one long TD. I'm wondering how many guys ahead of AB had a long (80 yard) TD, which inflated their YAC average...
2. 60+ receptions is a good start, because after that many receptions, it sort of eliminates the chance that one long TD would overly influence their YAC average. That said, AB had double that number (136), which would almost assuredly eliminate any/all long receptions for him. Still... let's look.
3. TANGENT: The second and third receivers on that list is not until 60 & 61... then, two more at 75 and then 83. We've already agreed that players with few receptions can have a long TD skew their YAC average. That said, the fact that no meaningful WR shows up in the top 120... it makes one question the usefulness of this stat.
Back to receivers with 60+ receptions.
4. ODB, Tate, Cobb, Hilton, & Landry are the top five. After that, it's Cooper, Edelman, Hurns, Snead, Matthews, Benjamin... all of whom are very good receivers, but most of whom (except Edelman) I recall having at least one long TD. It may have only been one (or three in ODB's case), but it might be enough to bump their YAC average from 4.3 (AB's average) to up a little over 5... especially since AB had an extra 60 receptions (point #2) to even out his average.
5. Eye-ball test. I've never seen a receiver like AB. Maybe he only gains 4.3 yards going forward, and 20 yards going sideways. IDK... stats or not, I haven't seen a player with his jukability since Barry.
I may disagree with you, but those are honest and fair assessments.
1. YAC averages
YAC averages can definitely be inflated, which is why I went to the 60+ receptions. As for AB having double that, plus another 16, it also means AB had double that, plus another sixteen to hit long runs after catching the ball.
That said, he had twenty-five 20+ yard runs, and eight 40+ yard runs. Thus, he hit a 20+ yard run 1 out of every 4.12 times he caught the ball. By comparison:
ODB: 19, 8 on 96 receptions. That means he hit a 20+ yard run 1 out of ever 3.56 times he caught the ball. (I'll just put this stat as: 1/3.56)
Tate: 7, 1 on 90 receptions. 1/11.25
Hilton: 17, 6, 69 receptions. 1/3
Landry: 10, 3, 110 receptions. 1/8.46
Cooper: 16, 6, 72 receptions. 1/3.27
Edelman: 8, 1, 61 receptions. 1/6.78
Hurns: 19, 3, 64 receptions. 1/2.9
Snead: 15, 3, 69 receptions. 1/3.28
Matthews: 14, 3, 85 receptions. 1/5
Benjamin: 12, 6, 68 receptions. 3.78
So, six players had more 20+ yard runs than Brown did, but that also means six players were more dangerous for breaking long runs than Brown. Doing it an average of once every 3.3 plays, with the best doing it once every 2.9 plays, compared to Brown's 4.12. That puts him pretty much in the middle of the pack (10 listed above, with Brown being 11). So, half the players had more long run gains than Brown, half the players gained more yards on shorter runs across the board than Brown.
2. Barry Sanders
Honestly I disagree with you here. We have a better Juker/runner on our own team than Brown, and that's Bell. His problem (on field) is that he doesn't have break-away speed, so he'll get chased down. But I'd say he's better than Brown in the Juke department.
3. Overall
So, where does this leave my assessment of Brown? I have no problem saying he's one of the best in the NFL. I have no problem even saying that when you put together the entire picture, and then look at trajectory, at the end of his career, Brown may be in the GOAT discussion, or at the very least GOAT-After Rice discussion. But leading up to this point, while his output the last two or three years makes it look as though he's underpaid; the totality of the contract, how much he still have to prove when he signed it, and the advances/restructuring bonuses he received lead me to conclude the overall contract was, and is still fair, although weighing to the side of the Steelers organization at this point.