TPOP: The Meandering Thoughts of an Indecisive Mock Drafter

[teegre]

They won't even look at Jack, unless he feel to rounds 3 or 4.

He already said he'll need Microfracture surgery "down the line"(mostly meaning it's bad now). Pass!!!!

I need some clarification.

Are you you saying he's going to drop into R3? I've heard that about Jaylon Smith, but not about Myles Jack.

[BlackAndGold]

I need some clarification.

Are you you saying he's going to drop into R3? I've heard that about Jaylon Smith, but not about Myles Jack.

I'm not sure where he goes honestly. I was meaning that I can't see the team taking him, unless he fell to rounds 3-4

It'll be interesting to see where he falls.

[teegre]

I'm not sure where he goes honestly. I was meaning that I can't see the team taking him, unless he fell to rounds 3-4

It'll be interesting to see where he falls.

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

[BlackAndGold]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

His cartilage and bone have begun to separate. Very possible neither of those happen.

Some team will take a chance on him, can't see it being the Steelers.

[teegre]

uh-oh, always follow your gut...

True... my gut says that Billings will be there.

But, my gut also says that Joseph will be the pick (over Billings).

[Born2Steel]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

This. This is where I started the offseason and where I still sit on draft day 1. These Steelers are ready to win it NOW. We are only a player or 2 from that #7, IMO. Adding a player like Jack, even for next season only, or for 2-5 seasons, is what it takes to get that damn trophy, I'm all in. That's why I'm banking pretty hard on Billings or Butler at 25 and hoping the next 2 picks produce quality backups at worst. We are very close. No need to get fancy and analytical, just get the best football player and let's go get that next ring.

[steelreserve]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

Personally, I'd rather have a different player at a different position - where the question is "Would you rather have a good player, or more Cam Thomas style horseshit?" See, that improvement helps us more than going from pretty-good to star. At least the original guy was pretty good.

True... my gut says that Billings will be there.

But, my gut also says that Joseph will be the pick (over Billings).

Don't hold your breath. I'm lacing up my dog-kicking boots for when we take the sixth-best outside linebacker with Billings, Joseph, and what the hell, Alexander and Jackson ALL still on the board.

"He has amazing raw ability and just needs a little polish to bring his game to the NFL. When a player like that falls to you, like, two years out of three, then sure, you can count on us to take the bait."

[SteelMember]

"He has amazing raw ability and just needs a little polish to bring his game to the NFL. When a player like that falls to you, like, two years out of three, then sure, you can count on us to take the bait."

Jason Worilds has a brother?

[steelreserve]

Jason Worilds has a brother?

Yeah, his name is Jarvis Durpee.

[SteelMember]

Yeah, his name is Jarvis Durpee.

I'll give you Jarvis. He's underwhelmed. No argument from me there, but Bud should get another year before we discard him on the LB scrapheap. And when healthy, Shazier has been really good. So were 50%... not particularly a good number for your 1st rounder, but still not near Cleveland suck.

[Shoes]

Nice work, TR. I could live with that draft!

[Psycho Ward 86]

I disagree.

By that logic, if Hargreaves were available, we should pass on him... because we are already paying for Cortez Allen.

The money owed to Timmons is already spent; there's no getting it back. Play Jack, Timmons backs him up... either way, money-wise: taking Jack or not taking Jack, the money is the same... but, in one scenario, you don't have an insanely good ILB.

What are you talking about? Cortez Allen's cap hit is way smaller than Timmons cap hit. And cant we pass most of his contract to a team if we hypothetically traded him? Except nobody is going to want a guy coming off an injury season, about to hit 30, and has been starting seasons slow for a while now.

You dont pay guys $10 million a year to warm the bench. Thats ludicrous

[teegre]

What are you talking about? Cortez Allen's cap hit is way smaller than Timmons cap hit. And cant we pass most of his contract to a team if we hypothetically traded him? Except nobody is going to want a guy coming off an injury season, about to hit 30, and has been starting seasons slow for a while now.

You dont pay guys $10 million a year to warm the bench. Thats ludicrous

The amount is not really the issue; the situations are similar because both players have already been paid. There's no getting that money back. They cut Allen... they aren't getting that money back, but they could still draft a CB. They can cut Timmons (or keep him)... they aren't getting that money back, but they could still draft an ILB.

[The majority of Timmons' cap hit is his signing bonus... which does not transfer to another team.]

[teegre]

Let me use a different example.

The Vikings had Jake Reed and Chris Carter... and they STILL drafted Randy Moss.

Shazier might be Chris Carter, but Timmons is no longer Jake Reed.


Even if Timmons was... I'd still take Jack (and figure out where to play him during training camp).

[steelreserve]

I'll give you Jarvis. He's underwhelmed. No argument from me there, but Bud should get another year before we discard him on the LB scrapheap. And when healthy, Shazier has been really good. So were 50%... not particularly a good number for your 1st rounder, but still not near Cleveland suck.

I didn't mean to imply Dupree is a "bust" at this point - it is way too soon for that. We do, however, seem to have spent an inordinate amount of attention on the OLB position to still not have anyone who's better than average.

[Mojouw]

I didn't mean to imply Dupree is a "bust" at this point - it is way too soon for that. We do, however, seem to have spent an inordinate amount of attention on the OLB position to still not have anyone who's better than average.

http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/201...n-and-colbert/

3rd behind CB and WR and one selection ahead of ILB and RB. Only 2 more selections at OLB than DT and OT. So not sure if inordinate is quite the right term. Unfortunate might be better. When a 3-4 team "misses" on an OLB pick (Jones and arguably Worilds - other misses have not mattered as much because existing players on the roster were performing well) and there is no entrenched adequate starter, you typically have to burn through a lot of other picks in subsequent drafts trying to make up for it.

[steelreserve]

http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/201...n-and-colbert/

3rd behind CB and WR and one selection ahead of ILB and RB. Only 2 more selections at OLB than DT and OT. So not sure if inordinate is quite the right term. Unfortunate might be better. When a 3-4 team "misses" on an OLB pick (Jones and arguably Worilds - other misses have not mattered as much because existing players on the roster were performing well) and there is no entrenched adequate starter, you typically have to burn through a lot of other picks in subsequent drafts trying to make up for it.

If you look at ALL picks, that's what you get, but how many of those CBs and WRs were in the middle and late rounds? Almost all of them. DL and interior offensive linemen we've used very few high picks but when we do it, man do we tend to find the good ones. I have no idea how we keep doing what we're doing with receivers, but we're either very good or very lucky.

I remember doing this exercise last year and something like 14 of the last 16 picks in the first and second rounds had been linebackers and linemen.

With the pass rushers in particular, we've been spamming linebackers with very high picks, and currently have very little to show for it. As of now, with picks in R1, R1 and R2 at OLB, we have roughly the same yield as with the fuck-it TEs we drafted in R5, R7 and R7. That's like our Achilles' heel of drafting in the early rounds, and DBs are the Achilles heel of the late rounds - so if that's what we're going to get out of it, I'd rather we focus on the DBs where the OLBs have been, and the OLBs where the DBs have been, and maybe we'll have better luck with one of them.

[Mojouw]

If you look at ALL picks, that's what you get, but how many of those CBs and WRs were in the middle and late rounds? Almost all of them. DL and interior offensive linemen we've used very few high picks but when we do it, man do we tend to find the good ones. I have no idea how we keep doing what we're doing with receivers, but we're either very good or very lucky.

I remember doing this exercise last year and something like 14 of the last 16 picks in the first and second rounds had been linebackers and linemen.

With the pass rushers in particular, we've been spamming linebackers with very high picks, and currently have very little to show for it. As of now, with picks in R1, R1 and R2 at OLB, we have roughly the same yield as with the fuck-it TEs we drafted in R5, R7 and R7. That's like our Achilles' heel of drafting in the early rounds, and DBs are the Achilles heel of the late rounds - so if that's what we're going to get out of it, I'd rather we focus on the DBs where the OLBs have been, and the OLBs where the DBs have been, and maybe we'll have better luck with one of them.

http://www.pro-football-reference.co.../pit/draft.htm

But basically, none of that is really the case...? Or maybe I am understanding you wrong. The only difference between OLB and CB is Woodley, Harrison, and Worilds all left the starting ranks recently, the Steelers have drafted 2 OLB in the past 3 years in the first round. But other than that, they pulled the trigger on OLB all over the draft. It is the lack of an ability to "hit" on late round OLBs that caused Dupree and Jones to be picked in the first round. Outside of the 1st round, they have pulled the trigger on DBs all over the place as well.

If you are arguing that the Steelers should be drafting DBs in the first round instead of front 7 players, well that is a matter of organizational philosophy - especially when Lebeau was running the defense. Perhaps last year and this year will be the beginning of shift in viewpoint under Butler?

Timmons
Woodley
Worilds
Jones
Shazier
Dupree

So one "bust" in that he can't generate sacks and is basically Arthur Moats - a replacement level OLB. One 10 year stud at ILB, one pass rushing terror before his body decayed, one "meh" pass rusher, an emerging beast in the middle, and one we don't know yet.

I bet most teams in the NFL would trade for that track record at a position group in rounds 1-2 over an 8 year period.

To me, it is more of an organizational focus on front 7 players over CBs. I've termed it the "attempt to repeat the Ike Taylor pick". They seem obsessed with getting a guy in the 3rd-5th round. I don't think it is really because they have a preference for Linebackers so much that they simply feel their zone scheme doesn't need tall, fast, twitchy, man cover CBs. Not certain I agree, but unless they go out of character this year, I don't see it changing for some time.

[steelreserve]

Timmons
Woodley
Worilds
Jones
Shazier
Dupree

I bet most teams in the NFL would trade for that track record at a position group in rounds 1-2 over an 8 year period.

The difference is I don't group the ILBs and OLBs together. We've had VERY different outcomes with those, and they are, at their core, very different positions. ILB is similar to our track record with DL, in that we use high picks infrequently (to the point of frustration among many until we took Shazier, in fact) and tend to get good players.

Even if you do group all the linebackers together, all you get are 3 or 4 good years from Woodley, Shazier who looks good *so far*, then two whiffs and a question mark. And from the Worilds pick forward, two whiffs and a question mark at OLB. I wouldn't take that for five #1 or #2 draft picks, I'd be pissed.

To me, it is more of an organizational focus on front 7 players over CBs. I've termed it the "attempt to repeat the Ike Taylor pick". They seem obsessed with getting a guy in the 3rd-5th round. I don't think it is really because they have a preference for Linebackers so much that they simply feel their zone scheme doesn't need tall, fast, twitchy, man cover CBs. Not certain I agree, but unless they go out of character this year, I don't see it changing for some time.

I think that is exactly right. Without a doubt we are focusing on the front 7, and with OL, DL and ILB we've done pretty well. We used high picks without going overboard and got a good return. OLB seems more like an obsession and DB a reverse obsession, and neither plan is working.

I think this is the one thing where we've got it exactly backwards, to be honest. The DL drives the OLBs' production, so you can, in fact, have success in the pass rush with mid-round types of players. And you don't necessarily need "lockdown" corners, but they do need to be of a certain minimum level that you're not going to find in the fourth round very often. Especially since CBs tend to get overdrafted like crazy these days, so the 4th-round talent you might have gotten with that 4th-round pick in 2001 is now going to be more like a 6th-round talent when you throw a 4th-round pick at the wall today.

I realize that some people are going to take issue with the underlined part above, but it is really something you can argue about all day and no one can prove the other wrong. But look back at the last 5-6 years, and when did our pass rush suck? When the DL sucked. When did it improve? When the DL finally started improving. So let's finish that part of it off. My 2 cents anyway.

[Mojouw]

The difference is I don't group the ILBs and OLBs together. We've had VERY different outcomes with those, and they are, at their core, very different positions. ILB is similar to our track record with DL, in that we use high picks infrequently (to the point of frustration among many until we took Shazier, in fact) and tend to get good players.

Even if you do group all the linebackers together, all you get are 3 or 4 good years from Woodley, Shazier who looks good *so far*, then two whiffs and a question mark. And from the Worilds pick forward, two whiffs and a question mark at OLB. I wouldn't take that for five #1 or #2 draft picks, I'd be pissed.





I think that is exactly right. Without a doubt we are focusing on the front 7, and with OL, DL and ILB we've done pretty well. We used high picks without going overboard and got a good return. OLB seems more like an obsession and DB a reverse obsession, and neither plan is working.

I think this is the one thing where we've got it exactly backwards, to be honest. The DL drives the OLBs' production, so you can, in fact, have success in the pass rush with mid-round types of players. And you don't necessarily need "lockdown" corners, but they do need to be of a certain minimum level that you're not going to find in the fourth round very often. Especially since CBs tend to get overdrafted like crazy these days, so the 4th-round talent you might have gotten with that 4th-round pick in 2001 is now going to be more like a 6th-round talent when you throw a 4th-round pick at the wall today.

I realize that some people are going to take issue with the underlined part above, but it is really something you can argue about all day and no one can prove the other wrong. But look back at the last 5-6 years, and when did our pass rush suck? When the DL sucked. When did it improve? When the DL finally started improving. So let's finish that part of it off. My 2 cents anyway.

I can get that. I would totally support a DL pick on the type of player yourself and others have been advocating for during the past several months. A position flexible anchor to complement Heyward and Tuitt and allow the LBs to roam free a bit more. I don't think they will do it. The Steelers always seem to zig when everyone says they will zag early in the draft. Not sure what it means, but they certainly seem to stack their board in a "unique" manner.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Let me use a different example.

The Vikings had Jake Reed and Chris Carter... and they STILL drafted Randy Moss.

Shazier might be Chris Carter, but Timmons is no longer Jake Reed.


Even if Timmons was... I'd still take Jack (and figure out where to play him during training camp).

its a lot easier to keep 3 receivers like that on the field than 3 ILB's in my opinion

[teegre]

its a lot easier to keep 3 receivers like that on the field than 3 ILB's in my opinion

Well... how about Jack at 58???

[teegre]

I'd like to highlight this paragraph:

My thinking was that due to the sheer number of high-quality defensive linemen in this upcoming draft, the odds are that there will be several of them still available at #58. Then, I realized that every other team will likely have that same mindset of waiting until round two to draft a defensive lineman. Extrapolating upon that thought, I queried further: what if every team uses that philosophy, and in turn, not a single team drafts a defensive lineman before 25? Pittsburgh would have their pick of the litter.

[Mojouw]

I'd like to highlight this paragraph:

My thinking was that due to the sheer number of high-quality defensive linemen in this upcoming draft, the odds are that there will be several of them still available at #58. Then, I realized that every other team will likely have that same mindset of waiting until round two to draft a defensive lineman. Extrapolating upon that thought, I queried further: what if every team uses that philosophy, and in turn, not a single team drafts a defensive lineman before 25? Pittsburgh would have their pick of the litter.

Extending that logic, what if the Steelers get Burns, a DT/DE, and a safety in the first 3-4 rounds? Is this still a bad draft? I need to know. I need the hottest of takes right now!

[teegre]

Extending that logic, what if the Steelers get Burns, a DT/DE, and a safety in the first 3-4 rounds? Is this still a bad draft? I need to know. I need the hottest of takes right now!

Let me say this...

If they get Hargraves and a SS, you could draft punters with the final four picks**.


(Credit to SteelersCanada for that line.)

[Mojouw]

Let me say this...

If they get Hargraves and a SS, you could draft punters with the final four picks**.


(Credit to SteelersCanada for that line.)

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

[teegre]

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

Done.

I'll call Paul DePodesta.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

[Mojouw]

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

Forgot about him. Done.

[teegre]

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

If so, I'd love to move Mitchell to SS.