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Thread: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

  1. #31

    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dissolv View Post
    As a coach, Tomlin has glaring issues. Clock Management, challenges, roster decisions. Yet despite that, he does remain a highly effective NFL coach. Comparing him to Cowher at this stage is becoming more and more relevant. At times Cowher had losing seasons. He also had issues -- Martyball, loyalty to Kordell, failure to value the QB position. But he was an excellent coach, and he could easily step right back into the elite ranks of the NFL is he wanted to.

    Tomlin is the same way. Not perfect, but clearly capable of helming the flagship team of the NFL to repeated success. Another superbowl win, even one this year with all the injuries, is not out of the question, and how are the Harbaugh brother's chances doing right about now? Sustained success matters--the more times you get to the playoffs, the more likely it is you go all the way. Peak and valley teams don't tend to make it back for a loooooooong time. I'll take Tomlin, given the alternatives. Warts and all.

    (This won't keep me from internet posting his boneheaded moves though)

    Dissolv
    Good post, except for challenges. As of a year ago, "Mike Tomlin, head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, has the best challenge success percentage (54.5) of any active coach with more than 50 career challenges." The fact that we think he isn't is due to our bias of wanting everything to go our way (common to all sports fans, me especially). The same is true of the draft. Believe it or not, the Steelers, in comparison to other teams, have a decent to good draft record under Tomlin. Of course, we yell and scream when any pick, 3rd round or higher, fails to become anything less than a very good to great player. But, statistics show we're doing better than most there since Tomlin took over.


  2. #32
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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    I can't believe no one has mentioned, cough, cough, Bruce Arians. Who has won more coach of the years?

    Oops, didn't read ALL the new posts since last time I read this thread.

    Apologies to steelreserve and teegre.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by Craic View Post
    Good post, except for challenges. As of a year ago, "Mike Tomlin, head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, has the best challenge success percentage (54.5) of any active coach with more than 50 career challenges." The fact that we think he isn't is due to our bias of wanting everything to go our way (common to all sports fans, me especially). The same is true of the draft. Believe it or not, the Steelers, in comparison to other teams, have a decent to good draft record under Tomlin. Of course, we yell and scream when any pick, 3rd round or higher, fails to become anything less than a very good to great player. But, statistics show we're doing better than most there since Tomlin took over.
    I heard some ESPN talking head discuss the draft. He broke it down like this for the first round:

    30% of the draft picks become busts.
    30% of the draft picks become fringe players/role players.
    30% of the draft picks become decent starters.
    3% of the draft picks become good starters.
    3% of the draft picks become Pro Bowlers.
    3% of the draft picks become All-Pros.
    1% of the draft picks become HOFers.

    And, for each round thereafter, it gets increasingly worse.

    2007: Timmons good starter
    2008: Spinny decent starter
    2009: Hood decent starter
    2010: Pouncey All-Pro
    2011: Heyward Pro Bowler (soon to be)
    2012: DD Pro Bowler (soon to be)
    2013: Jones fringe/role player
    2014: Shazier inc. shows flashes of All-Pro
    2015: Dupree too early, looks like (at least) a good starter

  4. #34
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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    cough, 2008, cough 2009. Yes, the draft has improved since those 2 dynamic years, but talk about blow outs.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by polamalubeast View Post
    Andy Reid is not better than Tomlin.

    Reid has almost a losing record since 2005 .....
    all talent being equal...I'd take Reid over Tomlin every time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    all talent being equal...I'd take Reid over Tomlin every time.
    Really? Why? With Haley on board, anything that Reid is better at in terms of x's and o's is at best a push. Reid's locker rooms have traditionally been very drama filled and his clock management and challenges are among the worst in the entire league.

    I figure he has an advantage in QB mentoring but that is about it. Reid has had teams pack it in before in Philly due to injuries up and down the roster. Tomlin has demonstrated and ability to get teams to fight through that. Reid also has a tendency to make bizarre play calls - something that could be argued he and Tomlin/Haley share.

    Not telling you that you are wrong, just interested in what it is about Reid that everyone seems to really like.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by TeeTee View Post
    1.) The season is far from over. Don't make final judgements on the SeaHawks just yet.
    2.) Look at the job Carroll did the last 4 years compared to Cool Shades? Who had the vastly superior team in the most recent 4 years? Cool Shades traded for a CB and then never lets him play, ever. Nice job there.
    In terms of Carroll vs. Tomlin - who had the superior talent up and down the roster? I think Carroll is an excellent coach, but I am not certain he would have really done much better than Tomlin last 3-4 years.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by zulater View Post
    Mike McCarthy. Got possibly the best qb in the history of mankind ( according to just about everyone) and has only got to 1 SB. `Imagine Tomlin blowing a trip to the SB on a guy not knowing his assignment on an onsides kick.

    Andy Reid? You're kidding right? As has been pointed out his clock mismanagement is famous. Ask any Eagle or Chief fan how big of dolt this guy is when it comes to using time outs and two minute situations.


    Sean Payton. Couldn't even win the worst division (season wise) in the history of the NFL with one of the handful of true franchise qb's in the league on his team. The division was there for the taking. In order not to win their division they had to lose their last 5 home games, 3 of these losses came against team with losing records. That team has fallen off the ledge to virtual irrelevance. How does this not reflect on Payton?

    I already conceded the cheatah from Bahstan. But of course to want him as your coach requires selling your soul to Satan. Or Goodell, whoever happens to be closest at the moment.

    To me the ones in the argument as better than Tomlin are John Harbaugh. But of course this season so far is putting that in some question. Besides is there a whinier SOB in the history of the league than crybaby John? God that guy irratitates me with his constant bitching. He gets more close call than any two coaches combined but God forbid a close one go against him.

    Then of course there's Pete Carroll. Now if there was ever a more stupid Super Bowl game deciding play call than the one he came up with last year please tell me what it was. And talk about selfish undisciplined prima donna's. That team is nothing but a collection of stars in it only for them self.
    When Reid had talent to work with, he was leaps and bounds better than Tomlin. Don't try to use clock management as an argument against Reid and then try to use it as a "plus" for Tomlin. He's just as bad if not worse...lol

    I'm looking at it as all things being equal...who would I rather have as a coach?

    If you want to call coaches "out"? I mean Tomlin had the best offense in the league last year and he couldn't win one playoff game. Sure Bell was out...but Ben, Miller, Bryant, Brown...they were all still there and Tomlin couldn't win ONE playoff game??? For every argument against McCarthy, Reid, Belichick, Payton...there's an equal argument against Tomlin. Easily an equal argument.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    Belichick, Payton, Reid, Fisher, Arians, McCarthy, Carroll.

    Harbaugh, Pagano, Coughlin and Fox are on the same level, and you could make an argument for each that he is somewhat better than Tomlin.

    Among recent coaches, Jim Harbaugh was far better; there are several college coaches who would be equal and probably a couple of NFL coordinators.

    Tomlin is definitely not the worst coach out there, but he is nothing special.
    Tomlin may not be special - or at least the kind of special we would prefer - but he is better at managing a team than many on that list.

    Payton - Bountygate and multiple visible fights with the coaching staff on the sideline. Not what I'm looking for.

    Bellicheck and Carroll, I'll buy those two although I want to see what Carroll can do no that attrition has set in on the roster and he has lost his built in draft advantage.

    I never got the Fisher love. To me he is Marty Schottenhiemer 2.0. Just good enough to get you beat when it matters. I am likely being totally unfair in this, but really what are Fisher's accomplishments? I guess I could look it up, but I honestly can't think of anything right now.

    McCarthy, to me, is the offensive version of Tomlin. Can guide a team really well, but makes some head scratching decisions now and then. If he is better, it isn't by light years or anything.

    Pagano, Coughlin, and Fox are interesting comparisons. I can see an argument that they are all 6 and one half dozen the other. Not sure that if I had to pull the trigger that I would swap Tomlin for any of them and be really confident that I improved my franchise.

    Point being, it seems that it isn't really that easy to point to a bunch of guys around the league and easily say "that guy. that guy is better. by a lot."

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    When Reid had talent to work with, he was leaps and bounds better than Tomlin. Don't try to use clock management as an argument against Reid and then try to use it as a "plus" for Tomlin. He's just as bad if not worse...lol

    I'm looking at it as all things being equal...who would I rather have as a coach?

    If you want to call coaches "out"? I mean Tomlin had the best offense in the league last year and he couldn't win one playoff game. Sure Bell was out...but Ben, Miller, Bryant, Brown...they were all still there and Tomlin couldn't win ONE playoff game??? For every argument against McCarthy, Reid, Belichick, Payton...there's an equal argument against Tomlin. Easily an equal argument.
    "Leaps and bounds". Really? Guess that would explain all those Super Bowl wins.

    Seriously if you want to say there's a case to be made for Reid over Tomlin I suppose you could make a case. But no way leaps and bounds. In fact if anything I would suggest the argument would go the other way and most people that have no horse in the race would call Tomlin clearly superior to Reid
    "A man's got to know his limitations."

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mojouw View Post
    Really? Why? With Haley on board, anything that Reid is better at in terms of x's and o's is at best a push. Reid's locker rooms have traditionally been very drama filled and his clock management and challenges are among the worst in the entire league.

    I figure he has an advantage in QB mentoring but that is about it. Reid has had teams pack it in before in Philly due to injuries up and down the roster. Tomlin has demonstrated and ability to get teams to fight through that. Reid also has a tendency to make bizarre play calls - something that could be argued he and Tomlin/Haley share.

    Not telling you that you are wrong, just interested in what it is about Reid that everyone seems to really like.

    - - - Updated - - -



    In terms of Carroll vs. Tomlin - who had the superior talent up and down the roster? I think Carroll is an excellent coach, but I am not certain he would have really done much better than Tomlin last 3-4 years.
    Adding Haley into the mix wasn't the original question and its been argued/reported that he may not have been Tomlin's "hire" but a coach the Rooneys forced on Tomlin.

    Reid's teams have had drama and personnel issues, what team hasn't? I recall some drama under Tomlin...Hines Ward/Big Ben, then there was the whole taking the games away and flips into the end zone will result in benchings. I haven't heard anything about Bryant being benched this week...if you nit pick enough, you can find little things on every coach to argue they aren't better than the other.

    I don't recall Andy Reid ever stepping on the field during a special team return...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    I don't recall Andy Reid ever stepping on the field during a special team return...
    That's because Reid hasn't moved that far in years.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    When Reid had talent to work with, he was leaps and bounds better than Tomlin. Don't try to use clock management as an argument against Reid and then try to use it as a "plus" for Tomlin. He's just as bad if not worse...lol

    I'm looking at it as all things being equal...who would I rather have as a coach?

    If you want to call coaches "out"? I mean Tomlin had the best offense in the league last year and he couldn't win one playoff game. Sure Bell was out...but Ben, Miller, Bryant, Brown...they were all still there and Tomlin couldn't win ONE playoff game??? For every argument against McCarthy, Reid, Belichick, Payton...there's an equal argument against Tomlin. Easily an equal argument.

    Andy Reid has no playoffs win since the death of Jim Johnson, former DC of eagles......Several eagles fan think the success of Andy Reid in its 10 first year was because of Jim Johnson.


    Last year the Steelers had the worst defense in all playoff teams and the steelers were not the same offense with Josh Harris as RB!....Tomlin is far from perfect, but Tomlin is better than Reid.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by zulater View Post
    "Leaps and bounds". Really? Guess that would explain all those Super Bowl wins.

    Seriously if you want to say there's a case to be made for Reid over Tomlin I suppose you could make a case. But no way leaps and bounds. In fact if anything I would suggest the argument would go the other way and most people that have no horse in the race would call Tomlin clearly superior to Reid
    And vice versa...it's an endless argument. Any argument you could make for Tomlin, you could turn around and go the other way and you don't know that those people with no horses would call Tomlin clearly superior to Reid...I can say those people would clearly say Reid is better than Tomlin. That's just your opinion. Which is no more or less valid than mine.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    That's because Reid hasn't moved that far in years.
    Lol...touché. He's got no suddenness or glide?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    My favorite Andy Reid moment.

    "A man's got to know his limitations."

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Steeler View Post
    cough, 2008, cough 2009. Yes, the draft has improved since those 2 dynamic years, but talk about blow outs.

    2008: God-awful.

    2009: They simply didn't retain anyone. But, the players themselves weren't too shabby.

    Mike Wallace gave us 32 TDs. Keenan Lewis was a good CB who left. Hood was a decent starter, miscast as a DE (he was a DT). Johnson was a role-player (who whiffed on a block in XLV). Urbik was cut for no reason, and ended up as a good OG elsewhere.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    And vice versa...it's an endless argument. Any argument you could make for Tomlin, you could turn around and go the other way and you don't know that those people with no horses would call Tomlin clearly superior to Reid...I can say those people would clearly say Reid is better than Tomlin. That's just your opinion. Which is no more or less valid than mine.
    Here's the argument against Reid as opposed to Tomlin. 3 losing seasons. A 4 win season, a 5 win season, and a 6 win season. That doesn't include this year which most likely will end up in that column as well. Never won a Super Bowl.

    I realize all things aren't equal. But I honestly don't think too many people, be it fans, reporters, owners, or fellow coaches would give a clear cut advantage to Reid over Tomlin. But I can't prove it, so I'll leave it as a difference of opinion.

    Tomlin gets under my skin every now and then, but I think he's become a pretty good coach. The way he turned the team around last year after the loss at Cleveland really brought me around to the pro Mike side.
    "A man's got to know his limitations."

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    Lol...touché. He's got no suddenness or glide?


    Reid isn't a thugg.

    The second "g" is for "glide."


    (I'm not sure if "thugg guy" trolled this board, but it's essentially the same joke as "s&g".)

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by zulater View Post
    Here's the argument against Reid as opposed to Tomlin. 3 losing seasons. A 4 win season, a 5 win season, and a 6 win season. That doesn't include this year which most likely will end up in that column as well. Never won a Super Bowl.

    I realize all things aren't equal. But I honestly don't think too many people, be it fans, reporters, owners, or fellow coaches would give a clear cut advantage to Reid over Tomlin. But I can't prove it, so I'll leave it as a difference of opinion.

    Tomlin gets under my skin every now and then, but I think he's become a pretty good coach. The way he turned the team around last year after the loss at Cleveland really brought me around to the pro Mike side.
    I'm not saying Tomlin isn't a good coach. At times he has some major mental lapses and he just doesn't get "it" sometimes IMO...like playing Justin Brown over Lance Moore and Martavis Bryant (for example) but overall. His teams have tendencies to play down and then below competition. They at times seem very undisciplined and unprepared. He's had some issues with challenges and lack there of. I'd be willing to bet if you had 50 people rank the Top-10 coaches in the league, you'd get 35 of them being totally different. I'm not saying I'm not Pro-Mike...most of the time I am. There are times however when the team seems unprepared, plays down to the competition, plays stupid that if they fired him the next day, I wouldn't care. If they lose to Reid and the Chiefs this week, this would be one of those times...lol.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dwinsgames View Post
    you are a Kenny Pickett enabler

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    Adding Haley into the mix wasn't the original question and its been argued/reported that he may not have been Tomlin's "hire" but a coach the Rooneys forced on Tomlin.

    Reid's teams have had drama and personnel issues, what team hasn't? I recall some drama under Tomlin...Hines Ward/Big Ben, then there was the whole taking the games away and flips into the end zone will result in benchings. I haven't heard anything about Bryant being benched this week...if you nit pick enough, you can find little things on every coach to argue they aren't better than the other.

    I don't recall Andy Reid ever stepping on the field during a special team return...
    Fair enough. I totally recognize that it is my anti-Reid irrational bias coming in to play here. I have no real reason why, just always felt he was an over-rated kinda "meh" of a coach.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    ANDY REID:
    My best friend in college was a diehard Eagles fan. He loved Andy Reid, but his brethren ripped Reid (far worse than anyone rips Tomlin). He spent a decade defending Reid... but, as he admitted: "I'd take Tomlin over Reid in a heartbeat."
    Summation: I'll heed my friend's advice.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by zulater View Post
    My favorite Andy Reid moment.

    it's amazing how much bigger Andy Reid is than all of those other participants.

    if my kid had lost to him I would have demanded to see his birth certificate and drivers license...

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    ANDY REID:
    My best friend in college was a diehard Eagles fan. He loved Andy Reid, but his brethren ripped Reid (far worse than anyone rips Tomlin).
    I'll bet. Those Eagles fans are a nasty bunch.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by 86WARD View Post
    I'm not saying Tomlin isn't a good coach. At times he has some major mental lapses and he just doesn't get "it" sometimes IMO...like playing Justin Brown over Lance Moore and Martavis Bryant (for example) but overall. His teams have tendencies to play down and then below competition. They at times seem very undisciplined and unprepared. He's had some issues with challenges and lack there of. I'd be willing to bet if you had 50 people rank the Top-10 coaches in the league, you'd get 35 of them being totally different. I'm not saying I'm not Pro-Mike...most of the time I am. There are times however when the team seems unprepared, plays down to the competition, plays stupid that if they fired him the next day, I wouldn't care. If they lose to Reid and the Chiefs this week, this would be one of those times...lol.
    Everybody agrees that Tomlin is good, but he has weaknesses. Sometimes the team is unprepared as recently as Week 1 against the Pats. Then our signature of playing down to competition is some kind of character flaw due to lack of discipline and consistency. You have to admit he is the best as platitudes and non sequiturs during press conferences.
    All Defense!

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    2007: Timmons good starter
    2008: Spinny decent starter
    2009: Hood total bust
    2010: Pouncey All-Pro
    2011: Heyward Pro Bowler (soon to be)
    2012: DD Pro Bowler (soon to be)
    2013: Jones likely bust
    2014: Shazier good but who knows
    2015: Dupree too early, looks like (at least) a good starter

    A couple there not quite accurate if you ask me. Hood being the most glaring. If we had him playing a position he wasn't suited for - guess what, that's on us for drafting the wrong guy and/or refusing to adjust our scheme to use him correctly. Blame that on old Round-Hole-Square-Peg Lebeau if you want, but ultimately the head coach is the one in charge.

    I think the problem was just that Hood sucked, since he did just as poorly with Jacksonville as with us. Cut from the Jaguars. </career>


    Quote Originally Posted by teegre View Post
    30% of the draft picks become busts.
    30% of the draft picks become fringe players/role players.
    30% of the draft picks become decent starters.
    3% of the draft picks become good starters.
    3% of the draft picks become Pro Bowlers.
    3% of the draft picks become All-Pros.
    1% of the draft picks become HOFers.
    I call bullshit on that. One Pro Bowler and one good starter in the entire first round each year? They are just pulling numbers out of their asses.

    2011 first round: 14 Pro Bowlers
    2010 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers
    2009 first round: 9 Pro Bowlers
    2008 first round: 10 Pro Bowlers
    2007 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers

    So really, you've got more like a 40-50% chance of getting a star player in the first round, and the substantial majority at least ought to be decent.

    Add to that the fact that we've used almost all of our top draft picks on positions that are not typically high-demand positions in the first round - inside linebackers, non-pass rushing defensive ends and interior offensive linemen - and we OUGHT to be getting the best or second-best player in each class. So our success in the first round is nothing special.

    Meanwhile, the positions where good players are rarer - CB, S, NT, and pass-rushing OLB - are a dumpster fire. The price you pay for using your high picks on the easy stuff. The one time we tried for a high-demand skill position (Jones) we failed miserably. Maybe Dupree will change that but - two first-round picks (plus a second (Worilds)) for one player: Not a high payoff.

    Who did we get in the first round prior to Tomlin? Holmes, Miller, Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Simmons, Hampton, Burress. Six impact players at impact positions, plus a pretty good starter at OL. In the meantime, we picked up the rest of the offensive line and the defense in the lower rounds. THAT'S what a run of draft success looks like.

    Right now on defense, we've got four first-round picks at LB, a first-round and a second-round pick at DE, and everybody else sucks. That's what draft un-success looks like.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

  26. #56
    Administrator Array title="fansince'76 has a reputation beyond repute"> fansince'76's Avatar

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    I call bullshit on that. One Pro Bowler and one good starter in the entire first round each year? They are just pulling numbers out of their asses.

    2011 first round: 14 Pro Bowlers
    2010 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers
    2009 first round: 9 Pro Bowlers
    2008 first round: 10 Pro Bowlers
    2007 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers

    So really, you've got more like a 40-50% chance of getting a star player in the first round, and the substantial majority at least ought to be decent
    .
    Where are you getting these numbers, exactly? A 40-50% chance of a star player in the first seems a bit (more like way) too high to me.

    And how many of those Pro Bowlers were actually 6th or 7th "alternates" because the other half dozen players that were named to the Pro Bowl ahead of them simply dropped out of that joke of a game? It's damn near a crime that the Pro Bowl is still even being used as a metric for HoF induction.

    Now, how many of those same players ever made All-Pro? (a MUCH better measuring stick)

    This is a recent article from the NY Post about each team's drafting over the last 5 years (2010-14). The most Pro Bowlers any one team has had in 5 entire drafts is 7 (Seahawks). The Cowboys have had 5. Everyone else has had 4 or fewer. The Steelers have had 4.

    http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exha...ul-since-2010/

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by fansince'76 View Post
    Where are you getting these numbers, exactly? A 40-50% chance of a star player in the first seems a bit (more like way) too high to me.

    And how many of those Pro Bowlers were actually 6th or 7th "alternates" because the other half dozen players that were named to the Pro Bowl ahead of them simply dropped out of that joke of a game? It's damn near a crime that the Pro Bowl is still even being used as a metric for HoF induction.

    Now, how many of those same players ever made All-Pro? (a MUCH better measuring stick)

    Really you can get that from just about any draft history list including Wikipedia. I don't know how many were alternates or All-Pros, but even to get in as an alternate, you need to have a good season. If you want to debate how to define "star" versus merely "good," then there may be something to talk about, but the point is it is not 3% or 6% or 10% of the guys drafted in the first round that are impact players and the other 90% are just OK. You use a first-round pick on a guy, AT MINIMUM you are expecting a solid starter and anything less is a disappointment.


    Quote Originally Posted by fansince'76 View Post
    This is a recent article from the NY Post about each team's drafting over the last 5 years (2010-14). The most Pro Bowlers any one team has had in 5 entire drafts is 7 (Seahawks). The Cowboys have had 5. Everyone else has had 4 or fewer. The Steelers have had 4.

    http://nypost.com/2015/04/25/an-exha...ul-since-2010/
    That's great, but to be expected. You draft a center or an offensive guard with picks 18-25, you SHOULD be getting one of the best ones in the league. Take an ILB in the top half of the first round, or a non-pass rushing DE anywhere in the first, and you SHOULD be getting a guy who's a badass. Those are not surprises to me. We did a great job hitting on Brown and Bell, but the rest is pretty much as expected given the picks we spent and the positions they were for.
    See you Space Cowboy ...

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    I call bullshit on that. One Pro Bowler and one good starter in the entire first round each year? They are just pulling numbers out of their asses.

    2011 first round: 14 Pro Bowlers
    2010 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers
    2009 first round: 9 Pro Bowlers
    2008 first round: 10 Pro Bowlers
    2007 first round: 16 Pro Bowlers
    How many of those guys were "one time" Pro Bowlers? I'm guessing a lot.

    The ESPNer considered a Pro Bowl level (and an All-Pro level) player as one who is there routinely: Brees AP, Megatron.

    A guy who gets there once us a decent starter; a guy who goes two/three times is a good starter; et cetera...

    30% + 3% + 3% + 3% + 1% = the 40% tgat you see on Wikipedia.

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    Really you can get that from just about any draft history list including Wikipedia. I don't know how many were alternates or All-Pros, but even to get in as an alternate, you need to have a good season.
    Debatable. Andy Dalton and Matthew Stafford played in it last year and neither one of them deserved to be anywhere near an "All-Star" game unless they bought a ticket to it. It seems that after about the 2nd or 3rd alternate turns them down, they pretty much start looking for anyone in the NFL with a pulse. And don't even get me started on the fan voting aspect of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by steelreserve View Post
    That's great, but to be expected. You draft a center or an offensive guard with picks 18-25, you SHOULD be getting one of the best ones in the league. Take an ILB in the top half of the first round, or a non-pass rushing DE anywhere in the first, and you SHOULD be getting a guy who's a badass. Those are not surprises to me. We did a great job hitting on Brown and Bell, but the rest is pretty much as expected given the picks we spent and the positions they were for.
    On the flip side of that, there's nobody out there really doing leaps and bounds better than the Steelers either.

    I still think the vast majority of college players, including the blue chip, "can't miss" prospects either simply do not make the jump to the next level and wash out or they never live up to their billing or their draft positions. I beg to differ with you as, IMO, the first round is where you try to get difference makers, not solid starters.

    For a random example, look at the top 10 picks in 2012. Richardson - bust. RGIII - bust. Kalil - bust. Blackmon - bust. Claiborne - bust. Have Tannehill, Mark Barron or Stephon Gilmore lived up to being top-10 picks? I'd say no.

    In fact, looking at that list only Kuechly has truly lived up to his draft position so far. I'd also say that half those guys would be out of the league completely by now if they had gone in the 3rd round or lower. And I'm sorry, but for as much as the media tries to anoint Luck, the kid still throws way too many INTs.

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    Senior Member Array title="Mojouw has a reputation beyond repute"> Mojouw's Avatar

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    Re: Can anyone name four active NFL head coaches they think are better than Tomlin?

    You have to put all this draft stuff in context. The only comparative is not some arbitrary standard or perception - even if it does come from a former NFL GM.

    Taking a first round pick at a non premium position (listed above as interior OL, non-pass rushing DE, ILB) can actually be a really sound strategy. Look at other teams that have picked at the latter half of the 1st round for much of the last decade, like the Steelers have. They tend to take similar players. But when teams in the latter half of the first round try and fill those "premium" positions late in the round - it blows up in their faces. Look at the Pats and CBs. It got so bad they had to basically buy an entire secondary last season.

    I said it earlier, look at the Ravens. Similar restock/rebuild as the Steelers. Which team has come out the other side of it with a better roster? Hands down Pittsburgh. W/out question. So, I mean how bad can the FO really be doing? Most seem to think that Ozzie Newsome is a draft savant.

    The Pats have reloaded as well. They argueably did an even better job than Pittsburgh. But what did they re-build their defense around? Spending first round picks on Talented ILB and OLB/DE hybrids that other teams passed on. Gee -- what other team does that sound like?

    I realize that post after post in thread after thread, I seem like I am totally in the tank for the coaching staff and the front office. But it isn't that I think they are without fault - I definitely think they have some problems. But every franchise does. And I would rather have this organizations problems than most of the others.

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