Called it again
Yinz know I've never been a fan of Trump, and I'm still not. So how did I predict the upset when everybody said that Hillary was unbeatable?
The data was there all along and the pollsters and pundits just missed it: Hillary's approval ratings were simply too low for their "likely voter" estimates to possibly be correct.
They take the raw polling data and adjust it to match the demographics of the people who voted in previous elections... and they were wrong to do so. This election was nothing like the previous ones. Obama vs. McCain and Obama vs. Romney were terrible models for this year.
Hillary wasn't liked even by her own base, so hardly anyone was going to show up to vote
for her. They were simply showing up to vote
against Trump. Trump, OTOH, actually had a large cadre of people who showed up to vote for him in addition to all the anti- Hillary folks.
He had base enthusiasm on his side and it was so overwhelming that even I underestimated it. I figured 2 maybe 3%, which would have made it a toss-up. It actually more than doubled that and he won handily.
So what now? Will The Donald make good on all his campaign promises? No. Remember, he is still a Manhattan limousine liberal at heart. Plus, he never actually expected to win. He doesn't have any concrete plans yet.
Nevertheless, this
is a shot across the bows of the entire Washington machine. The next 4 years will be interesting.
Best,
-Slashy