oh god please no

[TMC]

a 3 spot trade back from 15 to 18 is essentially a 3rd round selection in terms of value http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/Value-Chart.php

You do realize that the value chart they use is not quite right. It appears they took one and made some adjustments to change it, but the original it was based upon had two mistakes. The two errors are in spots 19 to 21 and 33 to 34. If you look at pick 20, it costs you a middle 6th rounder to move up to 19. But, if you are at pick 21, it costs you a late 4th to move up to pick 20. Why would it cost more to move up from 21 to 20 than it does from 20 to 19. The same is true for 32-33-34. It costs twice as much to move from 34 to 33 than it does from 33 to 32.

And, just for some background, while sites may list these things as being from NFL teams, they truly are not. To my knowledge, the NFL teams that use these charts have not turned them over to anyone in the press. The information came from a news article on Jimmie Johnson. Of the 256 slots in the draft, the article touched on only 10 of the numbers associated with the draft chart. Some draftnik over at footballcorner.bizland.com (later just footballcorner.com) took those 10 numbers and built an Excel spreadsheet, plugged them in, and attempted to reverse engineer the draft chart. This was in the early 90s. When the draft site folded, he allowed access of his chart to a few other websites and it spread like wildfire. To keep from completely copying it, some made some changes on a few of the numbers, but if you see the two mistakes listed, it was based off the initial flawed chart where he made two mistakes. Here is the original .gif:


Kind of crazy how this thing has just become accepted as an NFL chart when only 10 numbers are actually off Jimmy Johnson's chart. Just thought I would throw this out.

[Dwinsgames]

You do realize that the value chart they use is not quite right. It appears they took one and made some adjustments to change it, but the original it was based upon had two mistakes. The two errors are in spots 19 to 21 and 33 to 34. If you look at pick 20, it costs you a middle 6th rounder to move up to 19. But, if you are at pick 21, it costs you a late 4th to move up to pick 20. Why would it cost more to move up from 21 to 20 than it does from 20 to 19. The same is true for 32-33-34. It costs twice as much to move from 34 to 33 than it does from 33 to 32.

And, just for some background, while sites may list these things as being from NFL teams, they truly are not. To my knowledge, the NFL teams that use these charts have not turned them over to anyone in the press. The information came from a news article on Jimmie Johnson. Of the 256 slots in the draft, the article touched on only 10 of the numbers associated with the draft chart. Some draftnik over at footballcorner.bizland.com (later just footballcorner.com) took those 10 numbers and built an Excel spreadsheet, plugged them in, and attempted to reverse engineer the draft chart. This was in the early 90s. When the draft site folded, he allowed access of his chart to a few other websites and it spread like wildfire. To keep from completely copying it, some made some changes on a few of the numbers, but if you see the two mistakes listed, it was based off the initial flawed chart where he made two mistakes. Here is the original .gif:


Kind of crazy how this thing has just become accepted as an NFL chart when only 10 numbers are actually off Jimmy Johnson's chart. Just thought I would throw this out.

did not notice those imperfections as they where not pertinent in what I was doing , as for " being set in stone accurate " nothing is on draft day , its what can you do that works ... just a general rule of thumb to gather and idea of what it may bring in terms of value

[TMC]

Let me also add this, I have touched on why I do not think any WR is worthy of the 15 overall pick in the other thread. I would not draft one inside the top 25. As for tight ends, I would not select one in the first round.

Ebron is very athletic. I have seen comparisons to Vernon Davis, but I think that is way over the top. Davis is an elite athlete, not just an elite TE, but compared to most guys, his numbers are eye popping. Ebron may be an elite TE (athletically). I think he runs 4.55-4.60, but Vernon Davis ran a 4.38 with a vertical over 40" and 33 reps on the bench. If Ebron comes close to that, he won't be around long off potential alone. I just do not think he gets there. The Steelers are not a team that splits their TE out a lot. They do, but they like to run with an inline TE in a lot of sets. Ebron is not a great blocker. He battles, but he has poor form and lacks power. He gets over his feet and can get yanked off balance. Once the defensive player pulls him and sheds a time or two, Ebron counters and sits back, becoming vulnerable to power. He has a long ways to go as a blocker. At this point, he should be viewed as a big WR.

Jace Amaro may be worse. He is rarely inline and not physical as a blocker. Good receiver (not as good as Ebron). Meh, not sure I want that early.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins is a good blocker, limited athlete, not much as a receiver. He really underperformed this season. I just do not know if he has the overall athleticism to be a dominant TE. For his size, he could be more powerful at the point. He lacks vertical speed. He also has a recent DUI. Dunno. Lots of questions with ASJ.

Of those 3, for the Steelers scheme and how they use TEs, ASJ appears to fit them the best, but again, I question whether I would spend a higher pick on any of them.

Troy Niklas is probably the best blocking TE in this class. He is a big dude, long legs, long arms, and just put together well. He is a former linebacker that moved over because he showed some promise on the offensive side of the ball. Good athlete. I think he runs better than his listed time of 4.8. Now, he is not going to get under 4.6, but I think he can run in the 4.7 range. He is physical and not afraid of contact. Just moved over to TE, so he is still developing, but may be the best cost/potential TE in the draft.