Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
So, three years ago when I brought up it, most people just ignored it. But amazingly, it seems to be happening again. What, you ask? Let's stake a look:
2001 Playoffs
2002 Playoffs
2003 6-10
2004 Playoffs
2005 Playoffs (SB WIN)
2006 8-8
2007 Playoffs
2008 Playoffs (SB WIN)
2009 9-7
2010 Playoffs (SB Loss)
2011 Playoffs.
2012 1-2 start.
Anyone see a pattern? There's the old saying around Steeler nation that the steelers don't rebuild, they reload. It sure looks like that, about every third year.
I agree with this.Originally Posted by Preacher
Array title="LLT has a reputation beyond repute">
Hmmmmmmmm....interesting.
"I believe the game is designed to reward the ones who hit the hardest. If you can't take it, you shouldn't play"
-- Jack Lambert --
Array title="Count Steeler has a reputation beyond repute">
Patterns are made to be broken. Will be interesting to see if the pattern continues.
Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
This is the fourth iteration of the same 2 on 1 off. Exactly how many time does that have to happen before it's a coincidence that every third year we suck? No, it's not bizarre. Bizarre would be something that happens one time. This has been happening for over a decade now. Nor is it "coincidence." Coincidence's that repeat stop being a coincidence and start being a pattern--even if you don't care for this "crap."
Tell me WHY it is just coincidence instead of pontificating, thank you.
(Hmm--posts didn't merge!
because it is. you dont even know how it's not a coincidence other than the fact that it happens every 3 years. What decisions is the organization making that causes that 3rd year? Nothing unusual. So to me, coincidence. Just hard to be good every year.
Then I take it you will be betting your house and all of your savings on the Steelers to go to the playoffs or SB in 2013/14? How did the cycle look before 2001?
There is no mysterious mojo or superstitions. There is nothing scientifically logical in what you claim.
What happens if the Steelers go to the playoffs this year?
Hater = Realist
Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
No? Then how about this. tl;dr version at bottom. . .
1. I created a random number generator in excel to generate numbers between 0 (bad season) and 1 (good season).
2. I then created 11,232 series of 12 seasons (each 0 and 1 from the random number generator).
3. After that, I split each series of twelve seasons into 4 data sets of three numbers each (each series of three representing a win, win, loss cycle).
4. I then counted every series that produced four data sets with 2 good seasons and 1 bad season, or in other words, that represented our 2 good, one bad season cycle over four cycles.
5. I then refreshed the random numbers 300 times, every time checking the percent of 12 season runs that came up with a the 2 + 1 cycle.
6. I could only get the same 2 + 1 cycle over 4 cycles (each set in a series to come up with 2 good and 1 bad seasons) on average, 1.8% to 2% of the time. The highest was 2.3 % That puts it far above the 95% statistically significant rate.
7. In one iteration (i.e. 11,232 series of 12 number), I counted all of the times that a pattern held through all four data sets (regardless of whether that patern was 2 good seasons then 1 bad; 1 good, 1 bad, then 1 good season; or 1 bad then two good seasons. As long as the same pattern held through all four sets in the series, I counted it). Only seven times out of 217 2+1 series did a consistent pattern followed throughout all four data sets. That also means that only seven times out of 11,232 series did a pattern such as we're seeing appear.
Let's put the last two numbers in perspective. When you only look at the series that had 2 wins and 1 loss for every data set, the same pattern showed in all four data sets in the series only 3.2 percent of the time. Of all the 11,232 series of 12 seasons, only 2% of those series even had 2 wins and 1 loss per each data set.
In other words (tl;dr version): There is a 99.94 percent chance that our 2 wins, 1 loss pattern over 12 years is NOT random and ABSOLUTELY not coincidental. Those are the numbers.
Or, are you going to now argue that this year is a good season?
Last edited by Craic; 12-13-2012 at 05:19 PM.
Array title="43Hitman has a reputation beyond repute">
You've way to much time on your hands Preacher.
Array title="zulater has a reputation beyond repute">
We have a franchise quarterback playing at the peak of his abilities with the best assortment of receivers in the history of this team. I also think the line is improving and will be the best it's been since 2005. The running game, obviously it depends a lot on Mendenhall. But even without him, last game I think the Steelers ran the ball effectively when they needed to.
In other words you don't settle if you're the Steelers. You maximize your chances now when you're elite at the most important position on the field. So to hell with the "3 year cycle. Figure out what it takes to get the defense to play as competent as they're capable of and go for it full bore right now. The Patriots and Packers both sucked defensively last year and were arguably the two best teams in football in 2011.
If the offense can truly become elite they can drag the defense along for the ride, and we should be a prominent player this season.
"A man's got to know his limitations."
I believe they will turn it around, but if they don't a top 20 draft pick couldn't hurt. Let's see Burress, Hampton, Polamalu, Roethlisberger, Timmons , Pouncey we do pretty well drafting top 20. So in the down years you point out we grabbed Ben, Timmons and Pouncey not a bad take even with all the criticism Timmons gets.
So let's forget all that and go win 10 or 12 straight.
Merry Christmas
Not ready to concede a 9-7 or 8-8 season just yet. Especially since this is the first game the team has been even remotely healthy.
Fire Goodell
2003 was done in by a bad quarterback and an O-Line in shambles.
2006 was Cowher's mishandling of Ben's injuries (appendectomy, concussion) and rushing him back too soon. If Batch plays the Jacksonville and Oakland games, The Steelers more than likely win those games.
2009 was the team simply collapsing after a 6-2 start.
Right now, this year's team seems to be doomed thanks to a bad defense, but we don't know just yet.
Array title="GodfatherofSoul is a jewel in the rough">
Well, according to that pattern we're going 10-6.
Hmmmm...you know, you're right. And, that sounds about right as well. 8-8, then 9-7, then 10-6. UNLESS we revert back, and we go 8-8 again.
But, to be honest, we can't assess the defense until this Sunday. They are now healthy, at least relatively so. I'm hoping for 10-14 points total for the Eagles. To me that's acceptable, and a good sign that there is still life in these guys...
Fire Goodell
2003 6-10
2006 8-8
2009 9-7
In each of our "down years" there were better results than the one before it. It's not totally out of the question for this team to do better than 9-7.
Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
I was wondering if anyone was going to pick up on that.
Yes and no. Patterns mean a whole lot, because they tell you that's something's happening on a consistent scale, and gives the observer a chance to figure out what changes need to be made. The key however, is that you can't look for specifics - such as "Will we win the SB," because that can be decided on one play. Or even "Can we make the SB," for the same reasons. BUT, making the playoffs, is based on 16 games and as such, gives a much better perspective on the overall team/season.
Array title="bayz101 has a reputation beyond repute">
Or....
2005 - Super Bowl
2006 - Missed Playoff's
2007 - Made Playoff's
2008 - Super Bowl
2009 - Missed Playoff's
2010 - Made Playoff's (technically made the Super Bowl)
And sure enough, I spent most of last year telling people about this pattern. Didn't work that way though.
My point: Patterns mean nothing. Interesting though.
Every three years lose a bunch of games that the team should have won and miss the playoffs. Yep this trend seems to be continuing. Ben is off to his best career start, but the running game is shakier than the San Andreas Fault and the defense is nonexistent unless they are playing the extremely inept Mark Sanchez and the chaotic soap opera that is the New York Jets
Haven't we gone 6-2 the last 5 years?
I'll stick with that trend for now.
At this point .500 and above sounds good to me. I really hope we take a step towards that on sunday. I do however think the league standings are a bit skewed at the moment. When looking at the standings, I really don't trust them at this point. I think a lot will have changed by the time we get to december.
Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
Is it too soon to bump this thread?
Array title="zulater has a reputation beyond repute">
Right now I'd say we're in a cycle that we wont make the playoffs for at least two seasons. The defense is so bad that it needs a total overhaul, and that can't be done in one offseason.
"A man's got to know his limitations."
Array title="Craic has a reputation beyond repute">
No way - if we can come back from the 2003 season, to go 15-1 in 2004, there's no reason at all that we can't make the playoffs next year. We're not even truly out this year.
Array title="Count Steeler has a reputation beyond repute">
If the injuries keep up, might as well go for the draft pick.
Looks like we're reverting back and going 8-8.
Fire Goodell
Array title="43Hitman has a reputation beyond repute">
Right now I don't see 8 wins.
We're still a very good home team (unless THOSE wheels fall off too). It's weird...it's literally like the Steelers are a different team when they play at home.
Fire Goodell
Pretty good stats. I hope it's true, then it gives me hope for the coming years !!
The Steelers are much better at Heinz than on the road, and it's not an exaggeration. The Steelers are utterly powerful at home. I don't know why but it's true so far.
Unless this team starts falling apart at home, this season isn't going to be a complete waste.
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