Vegas Odds Maker... Romney will "kill" Obama.

[silver & black]

Wayne Allyn Root
May 30, 2012

Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.

But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.

Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?

First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.

But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.


http://www.snopes.com/politics/soapbox/landslide.asp

[X-Terminator]

But Mr. Root has underestimated the one key factor in this race that will be guaranteed to hand the election to Obama.

The media.

All of that may very well be true...today...on July 23. Talk to me again on October 23, when the media will have had 3 solid months to do what they do best.

Obama is getting 4 more years. Get used to it, folks.

[suitanim]

It won't be a landslide, but it will be 5-7 points.

I STILL have faith in the acumen of the average American citizen.

[silver & black]

It won't be a landslide, but it will be 5-7 points.

I STILL have faith in the acumen of the average American citizen.

You have more faith than I do.

[Hindes204]

I dont see a landslide here. I think it will be very close and it could go either way.

[X-Terminator]

You have more faith than I do.

Ditto. My faith went out the door in 2008.

[suitanim]

Obama won in '08 because he mobilized a bunch of people who never vote. On top of the fact that the author of the OP is correct, there's also the fact that all those first-time and rare voters will just stay home this time.

[Hindes204]

It will be interesting to see the polls after Romney chooses his veep

[st33lersguy]

I am not sold on gut feelings, I need to see polls, proof to back it up. As far as the black vote is concerned, I saw a poll that had Obama at 92%, Romney 2%.

[GoSlash27]

It won't be a landslide, but it will be 5-7 points.

I STILL have faith in the acumen of the average American citizen.

Be real, Suit. How many times in the past month alone have you declared the electorate to be morons?

[ALLD]

Only way Obama wins is if the election is rigged.

[SteelerEmpire]

The way this kind of stuff works is to: 1) put the odds out for the public to see. 2) get as many people to bet on Romney as possible. 3) this odds-maker [and his pal's] secretly put their money on the "underdog": Obama. 4) the odds-maker and his buddies win BIG. 5) everyone else stands around looking at each other wondering what happened.

[silver & black]

For the record: I think Obama gets re-elected. I'll hate it, and hope it doesn't come to pass, but I've consigned myself to another four years of shit.

[zulater]

I think the OP makes a lot of sense. After reading it I think there's real reason for optimism this November!

[GBMelBlount]

I think the OP makes a lot of sense. After reading it I think there's real reason for optimism this November!

You know it's funny zu, I have kept coming back to this thread since it was posted.

The breakdown does make sense and gives reason for optimism although I am not going to bet the farm on Romney yet.

I guess I am a bit of a pessimistic optimist...

[Mach1]

For the record: I think Obama gets re-elected. I'll hate it, and hope it doesn't come to pass, but I've consigned myself to another four years of shit.

If he is re-elected the shit will last for a lot longer than 4 years.

[GBMelBlount]

If he is re-elected the shit will last for a lot longer than 4 years.

Then it will take 12 years to undo what Bush did...

[SteelerEmpire]

But Mr. Root has underestimated the one key factor in this race that will be guaranteed to hand the election to Obama.

The media.

All of that may very well be true...today...on July 23. Talk to me again on October 23, when the media will have had 3 solid months to do what they do best.

Obama is getting 4 more years. Get used to it, folks.

He also forget to point out the alternative: Romney. Not too many of the above fore-mentioned are excited about Romney either. If Romney doesn't do well in the upcoming debates that, by the way, will cover a "whole-lot" more issues than just the economy (what Romney "seems" to only want to focus on), he's gonna be in big trouble. If Mitt doesn't get a full plate of issues out there for the public that are "good ideas" AND that will make the far right, the tea party elements, moderates "and" independent voters happy... there could be problems. Will be interesting to see what people will think once he "puts it all out there" on every issue. As of now, not many people can tell you what he actually stands for... Once they do know, will his numbers increase or decrease ? For that reason, I think the above odds maker is way, way too premature in his predictions.

[GoSlash27]

He also forget to point out the alternative: Romney. Not too many of the above fore-mentioned are excited about Romney either. If Romney doesn't do well in the upcoming debates that, by the way, will cover a "whole-lot" more issues than just the economy (what Romney "seems" to only want to focus on), he's gonna be in big trouble. If Mitt doesn't get a full plate of issues out there for the public that are "good ideas" AND that will make the far right, the tea party elements, moderates "and" independent voters happy... there could be problems. Will be interesting to see what people will think once he "puts it all out there" on every issue. As of now, not many people can tell you what he actually stands for... Once they do know, will his numbers increase or decrease ? For that reason, I think the above odds maker is way, way too premature in his predictions.

Shhh!! You're speaking sensibly with your outside voice!
/ Obama didn't actually mobilize the youth vote
// the TEA party isn't actually "far right"

[silver & black]

He also forget to point out the alternative: Romney. Not too many of the above fore-mentioned are excited about Romney either. If Romney doesn't do well in the upcoming debates that, by the way, will cover a "whole-lot" more issues than just the economy (what Romney "seems" to only want to focus on), he's gonna be in big trouble. If Mitt doesn't get a full plate of issues out there for the public that are "good ideas" AND that will make the far right, the tea party elements, moderates "and" independent voters happy... there could be problems. Will be interesting to see what people will think once he "puts it all out there" on every issue. As of now, not many people can tell you what he actually stands for... Once they do know, will his numbers increase or decrease ? For that reason, I think the above odds maker is way, way too premature in his predictions.

I agree with you. I'm not at all convinced that Romney will win just because he isn't Obama.

[zulater]

I agree with you. I'm not at all convinced that Romney will win just because he isn't Obama.

Neither am I. But at least I think there's a chance.

[X-Terminator]

Neither am I. But at least I think there's a chance.

Well then you'd better prepare for bitter disappointment.

[suitanim]

Black vote- Obama isn't going to ON:Y get 88%. He's going to get 96-97%, and I'd wager that 2-3% of that is just people hitting the wrong button. It's literally like 99% blacks voting for him. Sad to see but the truth. What helped him win last time was all the new and/or rare black voters who mobilized. The numbers will be way down this time.
Hispanic- I don't see the GOP doing much better here. Maybe some of the more radical Obama stances chip away a bit, but I don't see Romney making in-roads. And Hispanics WILL vote
Jewish- OP is way off, but there will be a drop. It was 78% in '08, and it will drop to between 70-75%. Not huge, but this election will swing an many tiny changes, not one big one
Young- I entered college on the back-end of a Reagan-inspired Young Republican resurgence. I could easily see a similar move to the right amongst young people out of frustration. Mostly I just think a lot of young people who voted for Hopey last time feel hoodwinked and just stay home.
Catholics- There will be an erosion here, and maybe not just from attrition. Catholics really do feel alienated by Obama. Not only will Obama supporters stay away from the polls in droves, some of them will actually vote for Romney who didn't vote for McCain.
SBO's- I was shocked by what happened last election. I was up on the mountain with a bullhorn screaming about McCain's record voting FOR SB his whole career, and Obama's abysmal record always voting AGAINST it. Even my own girlfriend didn't listen! Now 4 years later there's all this feigned shock from SBO's as to what went wrong: You voted for a guy who has a career record voting 95% AGAINST SB initiatives, THAT'S what went wrong. IMO, if you own a SB and you vote for Obama, you deserve to go OOB. Absolute no-brainer here...
Blue-collar whites- I DON'T share the faith here. I know many...they tend to drink the Kool Aid. I do think most will stay home though...
Suburban moms- Depends. Women love Obama. Suburban women vote. Don't know here...Romney and the GOP have not exactly been wowing women
voters...
Vets- Spot-on. There are still some that will vote for Hopey, but Romney will clean up here. There aren't a zillion vets, but they all vote

One not mentioned- Seniors. Romney needs to convince them that even under the Ryan plan, nobody is touching their stuff. That's all they need to hear and understand. If he can get that message across and get past the shameful Democrats demagoguery of suits pushing grandma off the cliff, Romney can make inroads in this demo too

Anyway, McCain only lost by a few million votes. And a few key states will make all the difference. I think just losing the black vote in North Carolina, Virginia and Florida could swing those states. It just takes a few people staying home here, and a few people swinging back right there, and BOOM! Hopey's a failed one-termer...

[zulater]

Well then you'd better prepare for bitter disappointment.

I prepare for it, but hold out hope that it's not inevitable all the same. Seriously X. What am I supposed to do? Stay home and sulk on November 6 while Hopey gets his coronation? Not hardly. I'll bang the drums for Romney and influence anyone I can to go to the poll's against Obama.

Regardless of outcome I'll be satisfied that I did what I could to bring about a better verdict this time.

[suitanim]

I prepare for it, but hold out hope that it's not inevitable all the same. Seriously X. What am I supposed to do? Stay home and sulk on November 6 while Hopey gets his coronation? Not hardly. I'll bang the drums for Romney and influence anyone I can to go to the poll's against Obama.

Regardless of outcome I'll be satisfied that I did what I could to bring about a better verdict this time.

Agreed. I am also trying to convince as many far left libs I know that it's okay to vote for the Green Party. Obama has failed them...and all that. I think the kids will fall for this more than other groups. Keep in mind, Obama SLAUGHTERED McCain in the 18-29 demo (66% voted for Barry, the most lopsided election ever for that demo), and it was also the largest turnout of young voters since 72, which was the first ever time 18-year-olds could vote. This demo alone turning on Hopey could do him in.

I think this election is going to come down to apathy. Obama voters from '08 feel betrayed. I think many don't really care anymore. Mobilizing GOP voters by coalescing around a few key issues that Obama has completely and utterly bombed on may not be all that hard, and the Obama voters who are going to stay home are going to stay home no matter what happens at this point...let apathy be the Dems calling card this election, and hopefully enough GOP will come to their sense and do the right thing so we can oust this twisted nitwit in the WH...

[suitanim]

Here's some evidence of eroding voter pools for Obama:

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/14/po...this-november/

Unlike in 2004 and 2008, when young voters flocked to the polls to vote for their favorite candidates, only 58 percent of young ages 18 to 29 say they are “definitely likely” to vote this fall — a 10-point reduction from June 2008.

For example, only 64 percent of Hispanics said they were “definitely likely” to vote this election, down 14 points from the national average. Only 76 percent of African Americans say they’re definitely voting this election — 2 points below the national average. Desire to vote is lower for both groups this election by 11 points for Hispanics and 13 points for African Americans.

http://news.yahoo.com/why-obamas-jewish-margin-florida-could-critical-050433650.html

A Gallup Poll released in June found what some have called a surprising drop in Jewish support for the president. The national poll showed 64 percent of registered Jewish voters are behind Obama, with Romney pulling 29 percent.

Gallup Polls just prior to the 2008 election had Obama garnering 74 percent among Jewish voters, with 23 percent favoring GOP nominee John McCain. Exit polls indicated the president received as much as 78 percent of the Jewish vote on Election Day.

[zulater]

Here's some evidence of eroding voter pools for Obama:

http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/14/po...this-november/

Unlike in 2004 and 2008, when young voters flocked to the polls to vote for their favorite candidates, only 58 percent of young ages 18 to 29 say they are “definitely likely” to vote this fall — a 10-point reduction from June 2008.

For example, only 64 percent of Hispanics said they were “definitely likely” to vote this election, down 14 points from the national average. Only 76 percent of African Americans say they’re definitely voting this election — 2 points below the national average. Desire to vote is lower for both groups this election by 11 points for Hispanics and 13 points for African Americans.

http://news.yahoo.com/why-obamas-jewish-margin-florida-could-critical-050433650.html

A Gallup Poll released in June found what some have called a surprising drop in Jewish support for the president. The national poll showed 64 percent of registered Jewish voters are behind Obama, with Romney pulling 29 percent.

Gallup Polls just prior to the 2008 election had Obama garnering 74 percent among Jewish voters, with 23 percent favoring GOP nominee John McCain. Exit polls indicated the president received as much as 78 percent of the Jewish vote on Election Day.

Only trouble being, whatever votes the Dems need in a close election they can usually manufacture through the dead and duplicate vote. Suppress a few thousand military absentee ballots, and viola, you're there.

[suitanim]

Harder now that ACORN is dead and a ton of states have GOP governors fixing all the voting loopholes...

[silver & black]

I prepare for it, but hold out hope that it's not inevitable all the same. Seriously X. What am I supposed to do? Stay home and sulk on November 6 while Hopey gets his coronation? Not hardly. I'll bang the drums for Romney and influence anyone I can to go to the poll's against Obama.

Regardless of outcome I'll be satisfied that I did what I could to bring about a better verdict this time.

That's all there is to it, really.

[ALLD]

The Republicans could put a blind, three-legged dog in the race and I would vote for it before Obama. We need a business type to make the hard decisions so that a strong economy is a matter of National Security. Not this robbing the people who work to support the lazy and stupid.