Run to pass ratio. Use of a fullback. Amount of the no huddle. The number of angry mobs. All things that have been discussed as to what Steelers' fans should be expecting from Todd Haley's offense. But for the most part, they've been nothing but generalzations instead of actual data.
What shutdown24 and I have done this summer is watch nearly every Chiefs' plays from the 2009 season on. That was as far back as we could go on NFL Rewind. The only ones we did not watch were weeks 1,5, and 6 in 2009 because Rewind did not have them up. And we stopped after the 3rd quarter of blowouts either way for fear of it skewing the numbers. In all, we watched 2098 plays.
This was broken down into two parts. There's a statistical side to it along with the X's and O's. I didn't want to just look at one aspect. We'll start with the numbers followed by the X's and O's.
*There would be more to the X's and O's part but I haven't been able to contact shutdown since the 4th. So I hope everything is ok with him. He watched the entire 2009 season so I don't have eyes on that. I watched the 2nd half of 2010 and 2011. But a big shoutout to shutdown for helping me out a lot and trading ideas on how to collect/present the data.
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What we did for each game was break every play into three parts. The formation, down and distance, and play type. Formation was written the way you'll see it on the field. Two numbers that tell you the number of RBs followed by the number of TEs. For example, 12 personnel would indicate one running back and two tight ends. Meaning, there are also two wide receivers. I will be the first to admit that it was sometimes subjective as to what to call each formation. For example, is a tight end in the slot a tight end or a wide receiver? I had a few basic rules to keep my count as consistent as possible.
1. Any RB lined up out of the backfield was considered a WR.
2. Any TE in the slot was a TE.
3. Any TE standing up as the end man on the line was a WR.
4. Any TE clearly in the backfield was counted as a back.
5. A WR in a two point stance was a WR and note a TE (unsual, but they did this with Chris Chambers).
Down and distance was set up in the following manner.
1st/10+
2nd/10+
2/7-9
2/4-6
2/<3
3/10+
3/7-9
3/4-6
3/<3
And the plays were broken down as the following.
Pass
Shotgun pass
Run
Shotgun run
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I attempted to attach the file with all of shutdown and my data but it's way over the KB limit. Not sure if there's anything I can do to work around that. So if you really want to see all the data we collected, I can email it you personally or something.
But here are the conclusions we drew.
The number of empty sets Todd Haley had from 2009 to 2012, TOTAL. 60
The number Bruce Arians had in 14 weeks last season. 114
Conclusion: Obviously, we're likely to see a lot less empty set.
Average number of plays with a FB (TE in the backfield counted as a FB) in Haley's three seasons, 258 (16.1 per game). Haley ran out of FB sets 58.3% of the time.
Number of plays with a FB for Arians last season: 159 (11.4 per game)
Conclusion: We'll see more FB under Haley, especially with David Johnson now strictly a FB, but it doesn't look like it'll be a the major increase some make it out to be.
Haley's most frequently used personnel. 11 (747 plays in three years) and 21 (568). 12 had also gotten a big increase in 2010 and 2011 compared to 2009. He used it just 40 times in 2009 compared to an average of 127 times in 2010 and 2011. For the record, 11 was commonly used on 3rd downs (70 times alone last year) and 3rd and long situations.
Haley's first down preferences based on personnel from 2010 and 2011.
1st/10 personnel, 2010 and 2011. Big four
21: 131, 105 = 236
11: 79, 96 = 175
12: 81, 48 = 129
22: 24, 28 = 52
And his percentages of run/pass on first down from 2009-2012.
1st down %. 09-12
48.7%R
27.7%P
18%SP
5.6%SR
54.3R/45.7P
Haley's offense averaged 52 draws from 2009-2012. I don't know an exact number of how many Arians had, but I knew we rarely ran draws. And when we did, they were normally on 3rd and the farm situations or backed up near our own goalline. So expect to see more draw plays in any given situation.
Of the 824 first down plays the Chiefs' ran in those three years, 427, or 51.8% resulted in gains of 3 yards or less. The Chiefs' had 248 3rd/7+, 30%, in those three years.
Conclusions: Tough to say here because unfortunately, there's nothing to compare it to. A lot of these numbers are relative so it's hard to say if the Chiefs' offense is being efficient or not. Not picking up four or more yards on over half your first down plays seems a bit discouraging but again, it's hard to say anything definitvely.
And finally, a look at his most frequent personnel uses on a given down/distance (minimum of 15 plays). Broken down for each year. In pararentheses is the exact number of plays ran out of the total from that personnel. For example, in 2009, Haley ran the ball 68% of the time out of 22 personnel on 1/10. 33 of his 49 plays from 22 were runs, giving you 68%.
Highest percentages (min 15 plays)
2009:
68% run: 1/10 22. (33/49)
68% run : 2/10 21. (17/25)
64% SP : 3/4-6 11. (21/33)
64% SP : 2/7-9 11. (14/22)
62% SP: 3/7-9 11. (15/24)
60% run : 1/10 12.(9/15)
2010:
85% SP : 3/4-6 11. (23/27)
84% run : 2/4-6 12. (16/19)
73% run : 2nd down total 22. (22/30)
67% SP : 3/7-9 11. (12/18)
66% run : 2nd down total 12. (43/56)
66% SP : 3rd down total 11, (50/76)
63% run : 1/10 21. (83/131)
60% run : 1/10 12. (49/81)
60% pass : 2/4-6 11. (9/15)
2011:
82% SP : 3rd down total 20. (14/17)
77% SP : 3rd down total 10. (13/17)
75% run : 1/10 22. (21/28)
73% SP : 3/7-9 11. (11/15)
72% SP : 3/4-6 11. (13/18)
61% run : 1/10 21. (65/105)
61% run : 2nd down total 21. (31/51)
60% SP : 3rd down total 11. (42/70)
Conclusions: Nothing groundbreaking here, to be honest. A lot of it can be predicted just based off personnel and down/distance (team ran a lot out of 22, passed a lot from 11 on 3rd down). But it's still nice to see the numbers.
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Next up I'll be getting into the X's and O's of his offense.