What's Your Confidence Level in this Team for the Playoffs?

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Originally Posted by Rotorhead

And the Ravens still have the Chargers and the Chiefs to play. Which ever team gets an upset wins the division.

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Good point. This Sunday may go a long way towards who ultimately wins the division. IF the Ravens beat the Chiefs, and IF the Steelers lose to Oakland, that would leave only one "losable" game left for Baltimore (Chargers) and two winnable games (Bucs and Browns), while Pittsburgh will still face two tough games with the Saints and the Pats.

Once again, that's not a prediction, just a "what if". Pittsburgh should, IMO, crush the Raiders towards their goal for winning the AFCN title. And the Ravens should lose to a potent Chiefs offense playing at home in front of a noisy crowd. But "what ifs" ain't worth a plug nickel until the final whistle blows.

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Originally Posted by Crow-Magnon

Good point. This Sunday may go a long way towards who ultimately wins the division. IF the Ravens beat the Chiefs, and IF the Steelers lose to Oakland, that would leave only one "losable" game left for Baltimore (Chargers) and two winnable games (Bucs and Browns), while Pittsburgh will still face two tough games with the Saints and the Pats.

Once again, that's not a prediction, just a "what if". Pittsburgh should, IMO, crush the Raiders towards their goal for winning the AFCN title. And the Ravens should lose to a potent Chiefs offense playing at home in front of a noisy crowd. But "what ifs" ain't worth a plug nickel until the final whistle blows.

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If the Steelers let the Ravens pass them they clearly don't deserve to be in the playoffs to begin with.

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Originally Posted by pczach

Unleash hell????

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Nobody in 1492 believed Columbus could discover America. Everybody said the Earth was flat.
But did Columbus quit?
He just kept going until he found land. There’s a lot of people who will tell you, you can’t do it. But that doesn’t mean you don’t try.

:thumbsup:

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Originally Posted by AtlantaDan

Nobody in 1492 believed Columbus could discover America. Everybody said the Earth was flat.
But did Columbus quit?
He just kept going until he found land. There’s a lot of people who will tell you, you can’t do it. But that doesn’t mean you don’t try.

:thumbsup:

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:chuckle:

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Originally Posted by AtlantaDan

Nobody in 1492 believed Columbus could discover America. Everybody said the Earth was flat.
But did Columbus quit?
He just kept going until he found land. There’s a lot of people who will tell you, you can’t do it. But that doesn’t mean you don’t try.

:thumbsup:

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What time is the pep rally tonight?

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Originally Posted by Crow-Magnon

Good point. This Sunday may go a long way towards who ultimately wins the division. IF the Ravens beat the Chiefs, and IF the Steelers lose to Oakland, that would leave only one "losable" game left for Baltimore (Chargers) and two winnable games (Bucs and Browns), while Pittsburgh will still face two tough games with the Saints and the Pats.

Once again, that's not a prediction, just a "what if". Pittsburgh should, IMO, crush the Raiders towards their goal for winning the AFCN title. And the Ravens should lose to a potent Chiefs offense playing at home in front of a noisy crowd. But "what ifs" ain't worth a plug nickel until the final whistle blows.

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That IF is a very real possibility since the Steelers have been down this road before. The Steelers lost to a 2-14 Raider team in 2006 and a 4-12 Raider team in 2012 & 2013. The problem still isn't fixed, if you don't see it as a problem it will continue to repeat itself.

Well, we are 1/2 game ahead now, we control our own destiny at this point, if we lose the lead, it was our own fault. I still think we win the division. As for playoffs, I think this is the year we would be able to beat the Pats, so the possibility of playing them is fine with me.

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Originally Posted by Crow-Magnon

Good point. This Sunday may go a long way towards who ultimately wins the division. IF the Ravens beat the Chiefs, and IF the Steelers lose to Oakland, that would leave only one "losable" game left for Baltimore (Chargers) and two winnable games (Bucs and Browns), while Pittsburgh will still face two tough games with the Saints and the Pats.

Once again, that's not a prediction, just a "what if". Pittsburgh should, IMO, crush the Raiders towards their goal for winning the AFCN title. And the Ravens should lose to a potent Chiefs offense playing at home in front of a noisy crowd. But "what ifs" ain't worth a plug nickel until the final whistle blows.

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See . . .

This is why I hate you. Stupid reasonable post with logic and insight!!!

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Originally Posted by pczach

Unleash hell????

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You know, the time Tomlin said 'unleash hell' was right before we had a game vs a shitty Raiders squad, and that didn't turn out well lol.

- - - Updated - - -

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Originally Posted by Crow-Magnon

Good point. This Sunday may go a long way towards who ultimately wins the division. IF the Ravens beat the Chiefs, and IF the Steelers lose to Oakland, that would leave only one "losable" game left for Baltimore (Chargers) and two winnable games (Bucs and Browns), while Pittsburgh will still face two tough games with the Saints and the Pats.

Once again, that's not a prediction, just a "what if". Pittsburgh should, IMO, crush the Raiders towards their goal for winning the AFCN title. And the Ravens should lose to a potent Chiefs offense playing at home in front of a noisy crowd. But "what ifs" ain't worth a plug nickel until the final whistle blows.

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If the Ravens can beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead they certainly deserve the division. Especially if we don't beat the Raiders. I don't care if we have to play those fuckers on the moon, losing to a team that shitty is just inexcusable for any squad with playoff aspirations.

Oh, ye of so little faith. I'm going to kick you all in the nuts. :giggles: I believe in Christmas miracles.


https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wor...play_image.jpg

:rofl2:

https://i.servimg.com/u/f62/19/32/44/95/fb_img10.jpg

Okay, here's something to ponder.

In the 2005 season, the Steelers were 7-2 heading into the Nov. 20th weekend. They lose three in a row and are now 7-5. They finish the season 4-0 and go on to win the SB. This year, they were 7-2-1 heading into the Nov. 25th weekend. Now, they too have lost two games.

Am I saying they're SB bound? No. I am saying, however, that taking the long view, this team has all the possibility in the world of going all the way. I still am not confident because they tend to mess things up at just the right (wrong?) moment but, there is precedent!

And, as for defense . . . in all reality, the defenses are pretty equal, statistic wise. In 2005, the defense was 4th in total yards, 25th in allowed scoring, and 13th in turnovers. The 2018 Steelers right now are 7th in total yards, 25 in allowed scoring, and 25th in turnovers (that number not being the same).

The place where there's a big difference is in third and fourth quarter scoring. That 2005 allowed a total of 14 third-fifth quarter TDs (5th=OT). This team has already allowed 20. However, with the change of rules, i wonder how much of that is indicative of the league rather than the defense by comparison of 2005.

If the Steelers win big on Sunday (Carolina win big), they win the Super Bowl.

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Originally Posted by 86WARD

If the Steelers win big on Sunday (Carolina win big), they win the Super Bowl.

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Are you thinking along the lines of needing their Bettis-in-the-snow-bulldozing-Urlacher-for-the-win moment for this year to put everything behind them? If so, I'd probably agree. A big win like that tends to put a stake in the ground. Then, they can talk about before and after, and focus on the after as reality. Funny how sports psychology works.

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Originally Posted by Craic

Okay, here's something to ponder.

In the 2005 season, the Steelers were 7-2 heading into the Nov. 20th weekend. They lose three in a row and are now 7-5. They finish the season 4-0 and go on to win the SB. This year, they were 7-2-1 heading into the Nov. 25th weekend. Now, they too have lost two games.

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Pimply Dan, where are you?

:chuckle:

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Originally Posted by fansince'76

Pimply Dan, where are you?

:chuckle:

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https://www.reddit.com/r/steelers/co...end_pimplydan/

https://imgur.com/lYVjx


:chuckle:

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Originally Posted by Craic

Okay, here's something to ponder.

In the 2005 season, the Steelers were 7-2 heading into the Nov. 20th weekend. They lose three in a row and are now 7-5. They finish the season 4-0 and go on to win the SB. This year, they were 7-2-1 heading into the Nov. 25th weekend. Now, they too have lost two games.

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In terms of similarities, the 38-31 loss to the Bengals in December 2005 that dropped the Stelers to 7-5 certainly had the benchmarks (special teams breakdown, Ben INTs, penalties) of a 2018 Steelers home loss :coffee:

Roethlisberger threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to Hines Ward midway through the third quarter to tie the score at 24-24, but the Bengals rookie Tab Perry then returned the kickoff 94 yards. That gave the Bengals the ball on Pittsburgh's 3. Two plays later, Rudi Johnson ran in for a touchdown.

Roethlisberger was intercepted twice in the second half, thwarting any chance the Steelers had of rallying....

The Steelers cut Cincinnati's lead to 38-31 with three minutes remaining and Pittsburgh got the ball back with 2:26 left. But the Steelers were called for two penalties

https://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/05/s...-steelers.html

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Originally Posted by fansince'76

Pimply Dan, where are you?

:chuckle:

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they need to start wining some games and they can no lose any more games ~ pimpdylan (aka, pimplydan) :nerd:

I think we will win the remainder of the games and if they lose one it will be to the Saints. Actually now That I think about it. KC was really the only team that out right beat The Steelers and that was early in the season and now they are weaker without Hunt. The other losses and the tie The Steelers pretty much beat themselves and some help from the refs.

Well . . . how about now?

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Originally Posted by Craic

Well . . . how about now?

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I still think they can beat anyone in the league on any given day. They just need the bounces to go their way to do it.

This has been about the darndest series of events I have ever seen.

They suck bad, coaching is horrible. This team is loaded with talent and they flop flop.flop. losers. They may beat the Bengals

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

I still think they can beat anyone in the league on any given day. They just need the bounces to go their way to do it.

This has been about the darndest series of events I have ever seen.

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I do have to admit, it is unbelievable how things have gone. Every single bounce seems to go against the Steelers. Especially last week. But, slipping on the field goal? Really? It's not even like he planted his foot and it slipped. From what I remember, it seems he came down on the side of his foot.

And that after a brilliant Hook and Ladder play that completely fooled me. I was thinking "What kind of stupid short throw is . . . Oh! YES!"

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Originally Posted by NCSteeler

They suck bad, coaching is horrible. This team is loaded with talent and they flop flop.flop. losers. They may beat the Bengals

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You could make the argument that they are on offense, but not on defense.

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Originally Posted by Craic

I do have to admit, it is unbelievable how things have gone. Every single bounce seems to go against the Steelers. Especially last week. But, slipping on the field goal? Really? It's not even like he planted his foot and it slipped. From what I remember, it seems he came down on the side of his foot.

And that after a brilliant Hook and Ladder play that completely fooled me. I was thinking "What kind of stupid short throw is . . . Oh! YES!"

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This is what I said last week. They get no bounces going their way and a lot of the reason they don’t have the turnovers. They all bounce the other way. I mean it almost happened again today when Burnett knocked the pass in the end zone down and it almost fell into Atemans hands...lol,

They did however get A LOT of penalties to fall their way...they really should’ve lost that game by two TDS.

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Originally Posted by steelerdude15

You could make the argument that they are on offense, but not on defense.

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Then whoever is responsible for the #1 and #2 picks we have been making year after year on defense needs fired

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Originally Posted by NCSteeler

Then whoever is responsible for the #1 and #2 picks we have been making year after year on defense needs fired

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Why? There's been lots of posts around here that show the Steelers beat the odds with their first and second round draft picks, all things considered. In fact, several sites that look at such stats usually put the Steelers somewhere between 9-14th overall in draft pick success over the last few years. As for first and second rounds, we are doing pretty good. Last year, we got Edmunds and Washington. It's too early to tell, but Edmunds looks like he's catching on pretty well. So, we'll call that 1 for 2. Last year we got Watt and Schuster. I think there's no doubt that's 2-2 that year. 2016 was Burns and Davis. Davis has quietly been playing pretty well. PFF reanks him above average and good at coverage. He's not lighting things up, but above average is good for a second round pick. We'll call that 1 for 2. 2015 was Dupree and Golson. Although Dupree is having a better year, he's not what we hoped. We'll call that year 0 for 2. Before that was Shazier and Tuit. Yeah, 2-2 that year. In 13 was Jarvis Jones and Bell. Despite our feelings now, Bell was a great pick then. 1-2. 12 was DeCastro and Adams, which puts us again at 1-2. 11 was Heyward and Gilbert. Hard to argue with those picks. 2-2. In 2010, it was Pouncey and Worilds. Easy 1-2.

So, 11 hits out of 18 picks or 61 percent, or 1.64 players who are good draft picks out of rounds 1 and 2. I found an article from 2011 where Reinfeldt, the GM of the Titans was stating that the average miss in the first two rounds is 44 percent. Or, to state it another way, the average hit is 56 percent. That's pretty good. Then, when you add in the fact the Steelers have drafted no higher than 15th since 2010, and drafted in the 'teen' rounds only three times (2010, 2013, 2014), that 61 percent looks even more impressive compared to league average 56 percent. Also remember the average is simply players who contributed decently to the team. So, significant starters. In my list above, I removed significant starters if the consensus is they aren't helping the team win. If we compared apples to apples with the 56 percent hit rate, we have to include Worilds, Dupree, and Jones who all started a significant amount of games. That'd boost the number even higher.

tl;dr

no. I absolutely do not want to fire anyone connected with the draft because over the last nine years, they have been above average in raw but skewed stats (skewed because we're removing three players who should count, but I didn't add them), and good to very good ​compared to other teams when we keep in mind in 66 percent of those drafts, we were in the bottom third of the round, and in half those drafts (or 33 percent of all drafts) we were in the last sixth of all draft positions.

Specifically for defense:

2018 Round 1 Edmunds. Too early, but looks like it may be a hit.
2017 Round 1 T.J. Watt. Hit.
2016 Round 1 Artie Burns. Miss.
2016 Round 2 Sean Davis. Hit.
2015 Round 1 Bud Dupree. Meh. Call it a miss.
2015 Round 2 Golson. Miss (due to health, not talent evaluation).
2014 Round 1 Shazier. Hit.
2014 Round 2 Tuitt. Hit.
2013 Round 1 Jones. Miss
2011 Round 1 Heyward. Hit
2010 Round 2 Worilds. Miss.

Hit: 6
Miss: 5 (but including Golson, which is unfair as we're talking talent evaluation, and Dupree, who is just now starting to show something).

That equals a 55 percent hit factor, pretty much inline with league average. And, again, that's with us drafting very low. In fact, three of the 5 misses were drafts when we were picking in the bottom 1/3rd of that round.

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Originally Posted by Craic

Specifically for defense:

2018 Round 1 Edmunds. Too early, but looks like it may be a hit.
2017 Round 1 T.J. Watt. Hit.
2016 Round 1 Artie Burns. Miss.
2016 Round 2 Sean Davis. Hit.
2015 Round 1 Bud Dupree. Meh. Call it a miss.
2015 Round 2 Golson. Miss (due to health, not talent evaluation).
2014 Round 1 Shazier. Hit.
2014 Round 2 Tuitt. Hit.
2013 Round 1 Jones. Miss
2011 Round 1 Heyward. Hit
2010 Round 2 Worilds. Miss.

Hit: 6
Miss: 5 (but including Golson, which is unfair as we're talking talent evaluation, and Dupree, who is just now starting to show something).

That equals a 55 percent hit factor, pretty much inline with league average. And, again, that's with us drafting very low. In fact, three of the 5 misses were drafts when we were picking in the bottom 1/3rd of that round.

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DEspite what folks will want to argue, Worilds and Dupree count as hits. Low yield, but hits none the less.

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Originally Posted by Craic

Specifically for defense:

2018 Round 1 Edmunds. Too early, but looks like it may be a hit.
2017 Round 1 T.J. Watt. Hit.
2016 Round 1 Artie Burns. Miss.
2016 Round 2 Sean Davis. Hit.
2015 Round 1 Bud Dupree. Meh. Call it a miss.
2015 Round 2 Golson. Miss (due to health, not talent evaluation).
2014 Round 1 Shazier. Hit.
2014 Round 2 Tuitt. Hit.
2013 Round 1 Jones. Miss
2011 Round 1 Heyward. Hit
2010 Round 2 Worilds. Miss.

Hit: 6
Miss: 5 (but including Golson, which is unfair as we're talking talent evaluation, and Dupree, who is just now starting to show something).

That equals a 55 percent hit factor, pretty much inline with league average. And, again, that's with us drafting very low. In fact, three of the 5 misses were drafts when we were picking in the bottom 1/3rd of that round.

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Sean Davis is a hit?