Playoff Projections

Here are the current playoff projections by ESPN Analytics. (I took out those less than 10% chance).

AFC
https://i.postimg.cc/tCj4T9mW/temp-Imagelr-WEFe.avif


NFC
https://i.postimg.cc/CKzFt5zT/temp-Image-Cv-VX35.avif

So you're saying there's a chance?

Once again, how are we overwhelming favorites to win the division but Baltimore have the better odds to make the Super Bowl?

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Originally Posted by El Kabong

Once again, how are we overwhelming favorites to win the division but Baltimore have the better odds to make the Super Bowl?

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The Ravens won't have Mike Tomlin coaching them once the playoffs start. :cool:

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Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler

The Ravens won't have Mike Tomlin coaching them once the playoffs start. :cool:

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Very accurate statement as Tomlins record sucks in the playoffs so I think was factored in.

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Originally Posted by ShadesOfSteel1172

Very accurate statement as Tomlins record sucks in the playoffs so I think was factored in.

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Hey hawaiiansteeler, you've been told that twice now. It actually makes sense whether you really believe it or not.

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Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler

The Ravens won't have Mike Tomlin coaching them once the playoffs start. :cool:

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Instead they’ll have John Harbaugh and his 3-6 playoff record in his last 9…lol.

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Originally Posted by El Kabong

Once again, how are we overwhelming favorites to win the division but Baltimore have the better odds to make the Super Bowl?

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Two different events. Steelers have a game lead in division and tie breaker , therefore better odds to win division. Record starts over in playoffs and they are viewed as better team. But sure it’s easier to take path of least resistance and blame Tomlin as opposed to using logic.

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Originally Posted by cubanstogie

Two different events. Steelers have a game lead in division and tie breaker , therefore better odds to win division. Record starts over in playoffs and they are viewed as better team. But sure it’s easier to take path of least resistance and blame Tomlin as opposed to using logic.

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Bad things = Tomlin is responsible

Good things = Someone else is responsible

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Originally Posted by cubanstogie

Two different events. Steelers have a game lead in division and tie breaker , therefore better odds to win division. Record starts over in playoffs and they are viewed as better team. But sure it’s easier to take path of least resistance and blame Tomlin as opposed to using logic.

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But if you win your division, you get a home game which is easier than having to go on the road.

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Originally Posted by El Kabong

But if you win your division, you get a home game which is easier than having to go on the road.

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I know. I don’t get it either. I’m just assuming most think Ravens have better chance to go farther. Home game huge.

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Originally Posted by cubanstogie

I know. I don’t get it either. I’m just assuming most think Ravens have better chance to go farther. Home game huge.

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Ravens have always had a much better chance. They are a better offensive team and their defense is starting to play better.

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Originally Posted by 86WARD

Ravens have always had a much better chance. They are a better offensive team and their defense is starting to play better.

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Yup.

Looking like a trip to Houston.

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Originally Posted by BlackAndGold

Looking like a trip to Houston.

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Which is a game they can win. Houston is likely the best matchup of the entire field.

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

Which is a game they can win. Houston is likely the best matchup of the entire field.

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Agreed but this is a organization that has not won a playoff game since Obama was still in the white house lol, so I'm not getting my hopes up. This just feels like a ugly collapse happening.

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Originally Posted by BlackAndGold

Looking like a trip to Houston.

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It will be a trip to Baltimore...lol. LAC will jump them.

Likely ravens win the division. They have a much easier road at this point. We likely get sent home in the first round

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I think at this point we need to rest some of the guys and have everyone healthy for the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by ShadesOfSteel1172

I think at this point we need to rest some of the guys and have everyone healthy for the playoffs.

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I kind of agree with that. Not saying we don't try and win on Wednesday, but if Porter and TJ are not right - don't play them. Our best chance now is that we get healthy for the playoffs, whether that game is home or away, and maybe when the starters do return some of the players who have filled in will step up like Trice (who had a bad game, but it is his first action in forever) or CA III (who could round into that 2nd receiver).

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Originally Posted by oneforthetoe

I kind of agree with that. Not saying we don't try and win on Wednesday, but if Porter and TJ are not right - don't play them. Our best chance now is that we get healthy for the playoffs, whether that game is home or away, and maybe when the starters do return some of the players who have filled in will step up like Trice (who had a bad game, but it is his first action in forever) or CA III (who could round into that 2nd receiver).

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Seeing how Porter has a knee injury I definitely would be resting all these guys, TJ wouldn't be playing, neither would Pickens if he was to be healthy. Maybe even Minkah

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If we enter the playoffs like a MASH unit playing backups and with only a partial playbook available, yes it will be difficult to advance. But why all the wailing and gnashing of teeth before we even get there. ANY given Sunday this team can beat the other team.

Can we beat the Chiefs on Christmas Day? Yes we can! If we don't get anyone back on this short week , it will be very difficult to beat the back to back champs. But until the game actually ends, we have a chance to win this game.

The division foes from Cincinnati would love nothing more than to beat us and cost us the division. They hate us probably more than the Browns or Ravens at this point. They will come at us with multiple blitz packages I would expect to take advantage of our young OL and to pressure and put hits on our QB. If they actually do this defensively, I believe Smith and Russ will pick their helpless secondary apart. Same on the other side? Probably. Another track meet that we are perfectly capable of winning again this year.

WE ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS. Not on the bubble. Not needing help to get in. Not going into the last weekend needing a win and at least 1 other team to lose. THIS is what we as fans claimed would be an improvement over the past handful of seasons. IF we get everyone back and healthy enough, for wildcard weekend, THIS team can and should make a little playoff noise this season. And isn't that all we honestly asked for at the beginning?

Yup.

I think reality is just settling in for some that bought into the idea the Steelers were a SB team.

I think the Steelers can beat anyone. Should be favored against the Texans, Broncos/Chargers, and have a punchers chance against the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs.

About all anyone could ask for.

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

Yup.

I think reality is just settling in for some that bought into the idea the Steelers were a SB team.

I think the Steelers can beat anyone. Should be favored against the Texans, Broncos/Chargers, and have a punchers chance against the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs.

About all anyone could ask for.

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The Steelers are not a SB team. I would not put it out of the realm of possibility if we started firing on all cylinders, faced opponents with key injuries, and caught a lot of breaks from officials and weird ball bounces. BUT on a logical scale, we would have to be near the bottom.

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Originally Posted by Born2Steel

The Steelers are not a SB team. I would not put it out of the realm of possibility if we started firing on all cylinders, faced opponents with key injuries, and caught a lot of breaks from officials and weird ball bounces. BUT on a logical scale, we would have to be near the bottom.

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Yes but that’s why Russ was signed. Veteran with tons of playoff and SB experience. We are where we thought we would be. Anything can happen in single elimination we all know. A healthy GP is going to a necessity, and winning turnover battle.

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Originally Posted by cubanstogie

Yes but that’s why Russ was signed. Veteran with tons of playoff and SB experience. We are where we thought we would be. Anything can happen in single elimination we all know. A healthy GP is going to a necessity, and winning turnover battle.

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Yep. Signing Russ got us clinching a playoff spot with 5 weeks remaining in the regular season. Unfortunately we are in the same boat as the Lions are currently. The number of injuries have put us into a situation where we are no longer the same team that clinched that playoff spot. I have not given up in the least. I do think we have to be one of the longer shots to make a SB run. But I thought that week 1 as well. However, hope is still there.

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Originally Posted by Born2Steel

The Steelers are not a SB team. I would not put it out of the realm of possibility if we started firing on all cylinders, faced opponents with key injuries, and caught a lot of breaks from officials and weird ball bounces. BUT on a logical scale, we would have to be near the bottom.

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Yeah. That’s all I’ve been trying to say.

I think when “pundits” and “analysts” or fans talk of “unmet expectations “ it is because their expectations weren’t logic based.

The Steelers are capable of beating any team in the league. They just have no margin for error. They need to play perfect and the other team to do a handful of imperfect things to pull it off against the higher caliber teams.

They just faced perhaps the most complete team in the league right now. At home in a playoff atmosphere. And they came within a couple of turnovers of maybe scratching out a win.

I’ve got nothing to really complain about as a fan. I was on the edge of couch for most of the game.

I think the NFL might have done better by expanding the playoffs rather than the regular season. The injuries are taking a toll against the top and hot teams.

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

Yeah. That’s all I’ve been trying to say.

I think when “pundits” and “analysts” or fans talk of “unmet expectations “ it is because their expectations weren’t logic based.

The Steelers are capable of beating any team in the league. They just have no margin for error. They need to play perfect and the other team to do a handful of imperfect things to pull it off against the higher caliber teams.

They just faced perhaps the most complete team in the league right now. At home in a playoff atmosphere. And they came within a couple of turnovers of maybe scratching out a win.

I’ve got nothing to really complain about as a fan. I was on the edge of couch for most of the game.

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I agree here, our defense has had a nose for TO’s this season and if we can win the TO war in games, and get a few key players healthy we can be dangerous in the playoffs. We may have enough pieces by Wednesday to give us a solid chance at KC, depends on the secondary IMO.

We were closer than people think these last two games. Turnovers did us in, largely self inflicted turnovers. I know the defense has been struggling but we get hopefully a couple guys on D back and pickens and play just a little cleaner football and we can still go on that run

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Originally Posted by Steeler-in-west

We were closer than people think these last two games. Turnovers did us in, largely self inflicted turnovers. I know the defense has been struggling but we get hopefully a couple guys on D back and pickens and play just a little cleaner football and we can still go on that run

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IMO we were a George Pickens away from at least being 1-1 in those games and maybe 2-0. Now it's a question of can we overcome the secondary injuries. At least we'll have fewer PI penalties!

The Steelers organization has set its "Standard" over the last decade when it comes to playoff success and this year will be no different. Realize it's been nearly a Decade with no playoff wins and the last two were every flimsy. Cincinnati was back to back personal foul penalties to set the Steelers up for a last second field goal and vs KC was a successful two point try nullified by a questionable offensive PI call against the Cheifs. Until the entire coaching staff( Tomlin included) is replaced history will repeat itself.

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Originally Posted by that1guy

The Steelers organization has set its "Standard" over the last decade when it comes to playoff success and this year will be no different. Realize it's been nearly a Decade with no playoff wins and the last two were every flimsy. Cincinnati was back to back personal foul penalties to set the Steelers up for a last second field goal and vs KC was a successful two point try nullified by a questionable offensive PI call against the Cheifs. Until the entire coaching staff( Tomlin included) is replaced history will repeat itself.

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Living in your past much? ……and what the hell is “every flimsy”? I’m guessing you don’t expect or hope that the Steelers win a playoff game.

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Originally Posted by that1guy

The Steelers organization has set its "Standard" over the last decade when it comes to playoff success and this year will be no different. Realize it's been nearly a Decade with no playoff wins and the last two were every flimsy. Cincinnati was back to back personal foul penalties to set the Steelers up for a last second field goal and vs KC was a successful two point try nullified by a questionable offensive PI call against the Cheifs. Until the entire coaching staff( Tomlin included) is replaced history will repeat itself.

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No, it's not a sure thing the Steelers will be one and done in the playoffs this year. And those were good playoff wins. That was an incredibly hostile environment in Cincy. The Steelers did well to win that. And that Chiefs game was also a road playoff win, not easy to do.

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Originally Posted by hawaiiansteeler

Bad things = Tomlin is responsible

Good things = Someone else is responsible

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It's actually just the reverse.

Russ was brought in for a playoff run, its pretty obvious. Otherwise they wouldve just rolled with KP and Mason

Tomlin wants to win now for his legacy and for his vets (Cam, TJ, Minkah) who may not get another chance. Next year Russ, Cam TJ will all be older so this might be their best shot.

I'm going to say two things about Tomlin, one of which might surprise you.

As I've said many times, I'm a great believer in track record. And one of the bad things in Tomlin's track record is that every year his teams lose two or three games to teams they have no business losing to, the so-called "Tomlin games". This year that track record held up with losses to the Colts, Cowboys, and Browns. As usual these kind of losses played a big role in the determination of the Steelers potential playoff seed. If they had just won two of these very winnable games against the Browns and the Colts they would already have clinched the AFC North (even before the Ravens game) and had at least the #3 seed locked up.

But having said all this, there is also a positive aspect to Tomlin's track record. Although Tomlin has a record of losing to teams he has no business losing to, he also has a track record of rallying the troops when things looks hopeless late in the season and winning games against teams he has no business beating. The KC game looks exactly like one of those. Yeah, the Chiefs have Mahomes and a 14-1 record, but (a) the game is at home, (b) the Chiefs have not really played as well as their 14-1 record would indicate, and (c) the Steelers are more pissed off and desperate and have more to prove. I'm not guaranteeing that a Steeler victory will happen, and Tomlin's track record also indicates that he will make at least one stupid decision during the game, but the game is not the slam dunk for KC that a lot of people think it is.

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Originally Posted by Voice of Reason

I'm going to say two things about Tomlin, one of which might surprise you.

As I've said many times, I'm a great believer in track record. And one of the bad things in Tomlin's track record is that every year his teams lose two or three games to teams they have no business losing to, the so-called "Tomlin games". This year that track record held up with losses to the Colts, Cowboys, and Browns. As usual these kind of losses played a big role in the determination of the Steelers potential playoff seed. If they had just won two of these very winnable games against the Browns and the Colts they would already have clinched the AFC North (even before the Ravens game) and had at least the #3 seed locked up.

But having said all this, there is also a positive aspect to Tomlin's track record. Although Tomlin has a record of losing to teams he has no business losing to, he also has a track record of rallying the troops when things looks hopeless late in the season and winning games against teams he has no business beating. The KC game looks exactly like one of those. Yeah, the Chiefs have Mahomes and a 14-1 record, but (a) the game is at home, (b) the Chiefs have not really played as well as their 14-1 record would indicate, and (c) the Steelers are more pissed off and desperate and have more to prove. I'm not guaranteeing that a Steeler victory will happen, and Tomlin's track record also indicates that he will make at least one stupid decision during the game, but the game is not the slam dunk for KC that a lot of people think it is.

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Vegas agrees, which is why KC is only favored by 2.5 points.

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Originally Posted by Steeler-in-west

Russ was brought in for a playoff run, its pretty obvious. Otherwise they wouldve just rolled with KP and Mason

Tomlin wants to win now for his legacy and for his vets (Cam, TJ, Minkah) who may not get another chance. Next year Russ, Cam TJ will all be older so this might be their best shot.

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The Steelers are ALWAYS in win now mode. What other mode is there?

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Originally Posted by Born2Steel

The Steelers are ALWAYS in win now mode. What other mode is there?

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The mode where Mason Rudolph, Devlin Hodges, washed up Ben Roethlisberger were at QB and the hope at RB was either Benny Snell or Jaylen Samuels was gonna carry the rock.

There have definitely been some reload and rebuild moments. Lets be serious.