Will the Coming Season be Different Because of COVID-19?

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Originally Posted by AtlantaDan

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:sofunny:

No more shaking hands?

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‘I Don’t Think We Should Ever Shake Hands Again.’ Dr. Fauci Says Coronavirus Should Change Some Behaviors for Good

[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]https://api.time.com/wp-content/uplo...800&quality=85Mandel Ngan—AFP via Getty Images
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The coronavirus will be the end of the handshake as we know it, if Dr. Anthony Fauci has his way.
The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, one of the leading experts in the fight against COVID-19 the U.S., told the Wall Street Journal podcast on Tuesday that when the country begins to loosen lockdown restrictions, some behaviors must change.

“When you gradually come back, you don’t jump into it with both feet,” Fauci told podcast host Kate Linebaugh on The Journal, talking about what life might look like when it eventually starts returning to normal. “You say, what are the things you could still do and still approach normal? One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing. The other is you don’t ever shake anybody’s hands.”

“I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease; it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country,” he later added.

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https://time.com/5818134/anthony-fau...s-coronavirus/

Good luck with that.

Honestly, if you extend into June let alone throughout the summer, you are asking for more problems. Not just the economy but physical health decline from prolonged stress related to economic issues, serious issues for those with mental health issues, not to mention the possible onset of mental health problems, the country going bankrupt trying to continuously compensate the citizens. This lasting through summer may be feasible for rich people living in their bubble, including politicians who may be more than eager to keep controlling the lives of their citizens, but in the real world, this whole stay at home, shelter in place except to raid the grocery store of at least 2 weeks worth of supplies, don't come into contact with people, have businesses shut down, that simply isn't sustainable for a prolonged period of time. There needs to be a way to at least partially open up the economy at the latest by Mid-May, especially as there are signs of a slowdown coming.

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

Honestly, if you extend into June let alone throughout the summer, you are asking for more problems. Not just the economy but physical health decline from prolonged stress related to economic issues, serious issues for those with mental health issues, not to mention the possible onset of mental health problems, the country going bankrupt trying to continuously compensate the citizens. This lasting through summer may be feasible for rich people living in their bubble, including politicians who may be more than eager to keep controlling the lives of their citizens, but in the real world, this whole stay at home, shelter in place except to raid the grocery store of at least 2 weeks worth of supplies, don't come into contact with people, have businesses shut down, that simply isn't sustainable for a prolonged period of time. There needs to be a way to at least partially open up the economy at the latest by Mid-May, especially as there are signs of a slowdown coming.

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That would have been possible if:
1. adequate supplies of reliable tests were laid in in early calendar 2020 - like almost every other country did.
2. a unified and consistent response across all states - there wasn't so it is impossible to get the entire country on the same outbreak timeline
3. people actual listened and followed advice/guidelines - they didn't and this thing is still spiking and spreading.

I agree that this is going to start getting bad from economic and anxiety reasons. But simply saying "Hey, y'all! Leave your houses and go back to work. We think this thing is mostly over." is just not a plan for anything but a worse wave of reinfection down the road. There is a plan for dealing with this and getting the country back to work. Problem is that we have not really been doing any of it and are demonstrating a national unwillingness and inability to do what has been demonstrated elsewhere to work.

I predict that while the death toll may never reach staggering and stupefying proportions; the US is going to have long drawn out outbreak. With multiple regional "spikes" in rebound infections.

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

There needs to be a way to at least partially open up the economy at the latest by Mid-May, especially as there are signs of a slowdown coming.

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We could do that. Open the Ford dealerships but not the Toyota dealerships. Open the pizza joints but not the Chinese restaurants.


https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hj7Ia4IKZsI/hqdefault.jpg

In today's episode of Perspective vs. Panic, the global death count from Coronavirus surpassed 100,000 today.

In proportion to the overall population of 7.8 billion, that is a tick over one one-thousandth of one percent. Not 0.1%, not 0.01% - one thousandth of a percent, 0.001%.

Meanwhile on the national front, the experts say we are at the peak of the outbreak. No hospitals overwhelmed and no shortage of ventilators; outside of New York City, not much strain on the health care system apparent at all. The Experts revise their death toll predictions downward another 40%-75% from their previous low model that already included social distancing.

Shitty back-of-the-napkin predictions posted on a football message board, by some random guy with no medical degree, once again wind up proving to be far closer to reality at every step of the way than the dire warnings issued by the trusted experts or the apocalyptic horror forecast by the press. Clearly, this is because of blind luck. It should be obvious to anyone that the real reason for the moving target is because lockdowns and social distancing are just 40 times more effective than The Experts had predicted. Never mind that this would mean their predictions about social distancing were themselves wildly inaccurate - they are The Experts, so they are right both coming and going.

Or, it could be that the dire predictions were just way too dire, and that all it takes to figure that out is to pay attention. No, that could never be it. Sorry about the millions of unemployed though, our bad.

^^^ Premature ejaculation

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Originally Posted by tom444

^^^ Premature ejaculation

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He’s just celebrating his recently discovered monopoly on wisdom.

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Originally Posted by FrancoLambert

He’s just celebrating his recently discovered monopoly on wisdom.

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Your entire contribution to this discussion has been "shut up, don't talk." Why in the fuck would anyone care about a single thing you have to say?

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

That would have been possible if:
1. adequate supplies of reliable tests were laid in in early calendar 2020 - like almost every other country did.
2. a unified and consistent response across all states - there wasn't so it is impossible to get the entire country on the same outbreak timeline
3. people actual listened and followed advice/guidelines - they didn't and this thing is still spiking and spreading.

I agree that this is going to start getting bad from economic and anxiety reasons. But simply saying "Hey, y'all! Leave your houses and go back to work. We think this thing is mostly over." is just not a plan for anything but a worse wave of reinfection down the road. There is a plan for dealing with this and getting the country back to work. Problem is that we have not really been doing any of it and are demonstrating a national unwillingness and inability to do what has been demonstrated elsewhere to work.

I predict that while the death toll may never reach staggering and stupefying proportions; the US is going to have long drawn out outbreak. With multiple regional "spikes" in rebound infections.

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Multiple reports suggest that now, the curve is starting to flatten and that the peak has either hit now, or will hit very soon, and there is talk that initial death estimates will be well below what has been projected. I do agree that a plan needs to be put in place with certain guidelines that both minimizes risk of spreading and getting businesses open and hopefully that plan is being worked and I'm not advocating to merely just returning to business as usual. I'm just saying that continuing with this new normal for a few months is not sustainable itself and is not a solution that won't cause problems for their own, especially as we draw farther and farther away from it's peak. If we're in July and cases have been declining for a couple months now and we're still not reopening things to avoid a second wave, that I find unreasonable

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Originally Posted by steelreserve

In today's episode of Perspective vs. Panic, the global death count from Coronavirus surpassed 100,000 today.

In proportion to the overall population of 7.8 billion, that is a tick over one one-thousandth of one percent. Not 0.1%, not 0.01% - one thousandth of a percent, 0.001%.

Meanwhile on the national front, the experts say we are at the peak of the outbreak. No hospitals overwhelmed and no shortage of ventilators; outside of New York City, not much strain on the health care system apparent at all. The Experts revise their death toll predictions downward another 40%-75% from their previous low model that already included social distancing.

Shitty back-of-the-napkin predictions posted on a football message board, by some random guy with no medical degree, once again wind up proving to be far closer to reality at every step of the way than the dire warnings issued by the trusted experts or the apocalyptic horror forecast by the press. Clearly, this is because of blind luck. It should be obvious to anyone that the real reason for the moving target is because lockdowns and social distancing are just 40 times more effective than The Experts had predicted. Never mind that this would mean their predictions about social distancing were themselves wildly inaccurate - they are The Experts, so they are right both coming and going.

Or, it could be that the dire predictions were just way too dire, and that all it takes to figure that out is to pay attention. No, that could never be it. Sorry about the millions of unemployed though, our bad.

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You mean from a dishonest mainstream media that likes to spread dire warnings and cause panic for clicks and views and liberal mayors and governors who are more interested in using this to exert control over people? Those people?

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

You mean from a dishonest mainstream media that likes to spread dire warnings and cause panic for clicks and views and liberal mayors and governors who are more interested in using this to exert control over people? Those people?

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No way, that couldn't possibly have anything to do with it. Surely the media and politicians would never dramatically embellish the facts for their own reasons. What self-respecting individual would believe that? You don't have a medical degree, stay in your lane.

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Originally Posted by AtlantaDan

I missed the memo on Drs. Birx and Fauci being members of the dishonest MSM or Mike DeWine, the GOP governor of Ohio who was one of the first governors to aggressively impose social distancing practices, being a liberal who was "more interested in using this to assert control over people"

Got some links that smoke those folks out as seeking page clicks and imposing the liberal agenda?

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So if everything we are being told is entirely on the up-and-up, let me ask you this. Where are the projections for any intermediate set of precautions other than a full lockdown?

Surely there are more than two infectious disease researchers in the country, so what have all these tens of thousands of scientists and academics been doing, sitting on their asses? "Everybody over 60 stay home, everyone else go about your business with reasonable precautions." Nobody has modeled that at all? Nobody has projected the difference between that and "Everyone over 70 stay home?", or "everyone stay home, period?" Nobody thought to do that? Really? Well then, why isn't it even being discussed? All you hear is lockdown-or-nothing.

That, in a nutshell, summarizes the press imparting its own color to it. If they are our only source of credible information, they absolutely can exert influence over "the narrative" (much as I hate that expression as a paranoid political keyword) and over public opinion. For that matter, why has every last projection for even a full lockdown grossly overstated the number of serious cases and deaths? None have been off to the low side, really? What incredible luck! Are other well-credentialed experts making different projections that are simply less-publicized? Probably somewhere, but when do you hear about those, where's the discussion?

You can make a very good argument that the media succeeded in influencing public opinion to the point where it snowballed, and the results have been an unmitigated disaster.

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

Multiple reports suggest that now, the curve is starting to flatten and that the peak has either hit now, or will hit very soon, and there is talk that initial death estimates will be well below what has been projected. I do agree that a plan needs to be put in place with certain guidelines that both minimizes risk of spreading and getting businesses open and hopefully that plan is being worked and I'm not advocating to merely just returning to business as usual. I'm just saying that continuing with this new normal for a few months is not sustainable itself and is not a solution that won't cause problems for their own, especially as we draw farther and farther away from it's peak. If we're in July and cases have been declining for a couple months now and we're still not reopening things to avoid a second wave, that I find unreasonable

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I am actually agreeing with you. I would love for all that to happen as well. But what people need to realize is that failures in basic leadership and organization have prevented the US from being able to institute the "winning" gameplan. Multiple places across the globe have been FAR better at responding to this and they are already moving back to full participation in the economy, for what that is worth.

But they have stockpiles of quick and reliable tests. We do not. We can not even test all the people that we think may have it and are sick in most regions of the country - just the people we think are in danger of dying from it. So we have zero accurate information on who is at risk and who is at not for another wave of infection(s).

Other places put consistent and comprehensive lockdowns in place across the entire nation. We chose a patchwork quilt of responses. So the timeline for "flattening" the curve is basically 50 individual timelines. People, viruses, and economic interactions tend to totally ignore state borders.

If we had just done those TWO things in a proactive and unified manner. Started a cohesive and evidence backed response in late February - we would likely be talking about how this is essentially over (2 week quarantine + 3 week safety margin). Instead we are talking about how we are only in the MIDDLE of it for most places and not even at the peak of it for other places.

That is really all I am trying to say. Is that while it seems to not have been as awful as it could have been, the lack of preparation and the lack of proactive response (there was a gameplan for all of this, the government chose to ignore it because reasons? No one really knows) have made the recovery portion of all of this far longer to start, far less certain, and fairly risky from a public confidence point of view. If we would have had testing in place from the jump and nationwide response plans, then we likely never would have had full lockdowns and shuttering of daily life. Read about the places that did have those two things in place -- it went down different than here.

The lack of preparation and the political willpower to force a unified national response left state and local governments with two choices, total shut downs or roll the dice. Not surprisingly, total shutdown was chosen over roll the dice. If for no other reason than CYA.

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

Multiple reports suggest that now, the curve is starting to flatten and that the peak has either hit now, or will hit very soon, and there is talk that initial death estimates will be well below what has been projected. I do agree that a plan needs to be put in place with certain guidelines that both minimizes risk of spreading and getting businesses open and hopefully that plan is being worked and I'm not advocating to merely just returning to business as usual. I'm just saying that continuing with this new normal for a few months is not sustainable itself and is not a solution that won't cause problems for their own, especially as we draw farther and farther away from it's peak. If we're in July and cases have been declining for a couple months now and we're still not reopening things to avoid a second wave, that I find unreasonable

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You mean from a dishonest mainstream media that likes to spread dire warnings and cause panic for clicks and views and liberal mayors and governors who are more interested in using this to exert control over people? Those people?

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I apologize for a post I made in reply to your post above and then deleted.

After several weeks in lockdown my frustration with this catastrophe has reached the point I need to cool off and take a break.

See everyone later. :drink:

@steelreserve
You ask about there being a middle ground. They tried that... but, people ignored it. The beach example that I posted earlier was not hyperbole; it’s a truncated version of what happened.

Question: Why do you suddenly care about people who are out of work? It seems to me that you are the type to be like “Fuck them... they can go suck dicks for extra money.” I am half-joking... and half wanting to actually know your mindset.

If this turns out better than expected, thank god for those who advised us to atay at home and thank god for the people in this country who followed that advice.

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Originally Posted by AtlantaDan

I apologize for a post I made in reply to your post above and then deleted.

After several weeks in lockdown my frustration with this catastrophe has reached the point I need to cool off and take a break.

See everyone later. :drink:

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It's fine, this is hard on everyone. I've been trying to stay positive, it's just hard to stay away from the worst alarmist reactions which I am getting sick of hearing

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Originally Posted by st33lersguy

It's fine, this is hard on everyone. I've been trying to stay positive, it's just hard to stay away from the worst alarmist reactions which I am getting sick of hearing

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Good point. That was why I was certain this was over-hyped at the beginning. The tenor and tone of the reporting on this is aggravating as all get out -- and I agree with much of it! What it comes across as if you disagree with it must be nails on the chalkboard infuriating.

Hopefully we can all just hang in there for like a handful of more weeks.

Stay the course.

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• Dr. Anthony Fauci said new cases appear to be nearing their peak and the rate of hospitalizations is down.
• He said deaths generally lag behind other aspects of the outbreak such as new cases and hospitalizations.
• After this week, the U.S. should see the “beginning of a turnaround,” Fauci said.
• “Now is not the time to pull back at all. It’s the time to intensify,” he said of mitigation efforts.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/coro...auci-says.html

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Originally Posted by teegre

@steelreserve
You ask about there being a middle ground. They tried that... but, people ignored it. The beach example that I posted earlier was not hyperbole; it’s a truncated version of what happened.

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About that - I don't really think they did try a middle ground like any of the ones I was talking about. Our amazing governor had already implemented Project Superjail well in advance of any of that. Leaving a few public parks and open spaces available, subject to people's best judgment, was a separate thing from that.

What bothers me is I haven't even seen anyone model any kind of partial stay-at-home order as it relates to keeping the country and the economy somewhat functional, or any way of isolating the most at-risk groups. It's just not talked about for some reason. Even when Trump is saying "we need to start thinking about how to re-open the country," still all you really hear anyone talking about are the two extremes, full lockdown or nothing at all. That's retarded.

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Originally Posted by teegre

Question: Why do you suddenly care about people who are out of work? It seems to me that you are the type to be like “Fuck them... they can go suck dicks for extra money.” I am half-joking... and half wanting to actually know your mindset.

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There are a few parts to that. Normally you are right, if some random guy got fired from his job, my reaction would probably be, "Well that sucks, guess you'd better go find another one." If, however, 50 million or 100 million people suddenly all lose their jobs at once, that is clearly a bad thing on a whole different level. That is compounded by the fact that no one had any control over it, and that most of them have no chance of getting another job. And then there is the fact that I think the person who ordered that to happen was largely oblivious to some huge effects it would have on people - some real ivory tower idealism. I've got a lot of friends that fall into that category, merrily chirping away about unity and posting memes making fun of being a shut-in, completely unaware of the fact that it is not a joke at all to a lot of people. I also know a lot of people, whether personal friends or people at work, who would not be ok at all if they lost their jobs, and are frankly pretty steamed that so many people are that oblivious and just bow it off. For whatever reason, that just stirs stronger feelings in me than being told "hey, the experts agree, this is important."

Then there is a selfish, or at least self-preservation, aspect to it. If it happened to all of these people, it certainly could happen to me. So far, I've been lucky that they haven't shut down the company I work for, but they could do it tomorrow. Then there is the fact that when you suddenly make tens of millions of people destitute, that is not a very positive thing for public safety. I don't live in a bad neighborhood, but I sure don't live in Del Mar Heights either, so if robbing and stealing becomes a big thing ... well, I would really prefer not to be in any violent confrontations inside my own house, but that is no longer out of the question. Finally, the most selfish reason of all, out of the $2 trillion spent (so far) keeping everything from completely going to shit by closing the economy, my personal share of that is just over $6,000, or if you count everybody in my family, $30,000. Is that worth it in exchange for removing the very small chance the virus might get me? Not really. Do I appreciate that decision was made without my consent? Not at all. But really, this is getting into the tangential, not the central reasons.

The last part is the government/political aspect, some selfish, some not. I place a pretty high value on individual freedom, if you couldn't tell - and while again, this hasn't affected me personally as directly as many others, seeing it happen to others on such a large scale is concerning, to put it mildly. The government should not be able to just say "guess what, you are banned from making a living, don't ask questions!" and that is just a gross overreach, emergency or no. If it can happen to that many people just like that, it could happen to me ... and I fear that as much as anything, this epidemic will be remembered as the time when Americans learned to sit quietly and fall in line. Messing with people's livelihoods on that scale, and people being ok with that, opens the door to a lot of bad stuff.

So I guess there is a lot more to it on underlying principles - some more directly relevant than others - than just "ah, sucks, this guy lost his job." I realize this has probably been a very disjointed and rambling discourse, and some parts of it probably makes more sense than others, but I suppose I did not really have a full answer to that question beforehand.

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Originally Posted by tom444

If this turns out better than expected, thank god for those who advised us to atay at home and thank god for the people in this country who followed that advice.

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And thank God for all the people that have essential jobs and have to be out in the world facing this shit every day. Maybe they have something to do with it too.....just maybe.

Some people get to sit behind a keyboard and tell everyone else how stupid they are from the safety of their homes either working from home or getting paid to stay home. Other people are losing their jobs, their businesses, their livelihoods, and much of what provides for their families and in some cases...a life's work as a business owner that is being taken from them. People will be losing their homes. Their families will be out on the street through no fault of their own.

I am for many of the actions being taken, but stop rubbing shit in everyone's faces because millions of people are being hurt by this....really hurt.

I also feel so sorry for those that are getting sick and those that are dying or losing loved ones. It's all so horrible.

There really is middle ground here, but some choose to act like there is only one side to things. If you owned a business and you were losing everything you worked your entire life to achieve, you would be humming a different tune. Show humility and compassion for everyone, not just to make a case for containment at the expense of others suffering far greater than you are.

People that have family members that have gotten sick or have passed away don't want to hear about the other side because all they know is the hurt they are feeling.

This is an extremely complex and difficult issue to handle. Both sides have merit.

At some point life has to regain some normalcy and the economy needs to start moving again, or the whole thing will implode. Knowing when that time is will be much more difficult.

When the going gets tough and everyone has to pull together and do difficult things, some can hack it and others can't. Those that can't just spend their time complaining instead of shutting the fuck up.

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Originally Posted by tom444

When the going gets tough and everyone has to pull together and do difficult things, some can hack it and others can't. Those that can't just spend their time complaining instead of shutting the fuck up.

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So now the person that has literally made 119 posts(I counted) to this point in this thread alone.....is telling other people to shut the fuck up?

119 posts in this thread alone!!!

More priceless trolling.....

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Originally Posted by steelreserve

Your entire contribution to this discussion has been "shut up, don't talk." Why in the fuck would anyone care about a single thing you have to say?

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On this issue you should listen to my “contribution.”. You spout ignorant, uniformed nonsense disguised as facts.
Like I said, you have more credibility when you stick to discussions related to football.
Your attempts to discredit Dr. Fauci reveals how far you have your head up your ass.

”Some people are so far behind they actually think they’re in the lead.” A line that fits you perfectly.

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Originally Posted by FrancoLambert

On this issue you should listen to my “contribution.”. You spout ignorant, uniformed nonsense disguised as facts.
Like I said, you have more credibility when you stick to discussions related to football.
Your attempts to discredit Dr. Fauci reveals how far you have your head up your ass.

”Some people are so far behind they actually think they’re in the lead.” A line that fits you perfectly.

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Still at it, I see. What contribution is it that I should listen to? You're still just repeating the same nothing. Basically just, "Grrrr, I'm MAD!" Just making noise.

I think His Holiness Dr. Fauci is doing a perfectly good job discrediting himself without my help, thanks.

What's that, another expert model that turned out to be wildly inaccurate? "That's ok, it must have been because the precautions are doing such a good job! Don't worry about losing your house, that's fine!" What's that, they were wildly inaccurate again and they already accounted for the precautions, it just turned out they were way off? "SHUT UP! JUST SHUT UP AND DO AS YOU'RE TOLD! shut up shut up shut UP!"

Just embarrassing.

Professional douchebag.

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Originally Posted by steelreserve

Still at it, I see. What contribution is it that I should listen to? You're still just repeating the same nothing. Basically just, "Grrrr, I'm MAD!" Just making noise.

I think His Holiness Dr. Fauci is doing a perfectly good job discrediting himself without my help, thanks.

What's that, another expert model that turned out to be wildly inaccurate? "That's ok, it must have been because the precautions are doing such a good job! Don't worry about losing your house, that's fine!" What's that, they were wildly inaccurate again and they already accounted for the precautions, it just turned out they were way off? "SHUT UP! JUST SHUT UP AND DO AS YOU'RE TOLD! shut up shut up shut UP!"

Just embarrassing.

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I mean to be fair, that is exactly what you are doing as well. You will post something about how your back of the envelope math comes up with this and that. Someone will post, almost (but not) always in a conversational manner and not trying to call you out, that there is this or that factor to consider into your calculations or here is another way of toting up the figures that changes your outcomes. And you respond with a long rant about individual freedoms and over-reactions that accounts for zero of the points raised by others.

So basically how is accusing others of telling you to shut up and listen to facts any better than you telling people to shut up and listen to your facts?

You keep asking about a potential middle ground case for all of this. Many have tried to share our own thoughts on it as well as some general information that we could find from the big wide world addressing that as well. Basically it boils down to in the United States a combination of a lack of tests, no national unified response, and the inconsistent compliance of the population made the possibility of a middle ground removed from the start. Additionally, I have read some sciencey stuff that says when attempting to stop an outbreak cold; there is no middle ground because the outbreak effects of the middle ground and the do nothing are basically the same. Not a virologist, so not sure I framed that totally correctly.

Just like almost every internet discussion, debate, argument whatever you want to call it -- people have already formed opinions and are not going to move off of them because some one else told them something on the internet. The frustrating thing is that all sides of the debate/discussion/argument/whatever have something to learn from the others. But no one is willing, myself included, to listen.

For instance, I will admit that once I understood what you were calling for, I can see your point about a more measured response to this. I still contend that the gap you are identifying between the various predictions and what has been unfolding on the ground has far more to do with outbreak combating actions taken by states and cities than your "static" math is accounting for. However, since neither of us is really certain of the details of how to math model a dynamic virus outbreak -- we can debate that point forever and never reach a conclusion. I openly admit that the phased return to life and targeted closures/quarantine model that you and others are calling for is a viable and potentially useful solution. But I refuse to back down from the point that it is simply impossible to do that currently because we lack the ability to test anywhere near the rate and the reliability required to do that. Latest news is that the tests we do have a returning both false positives and false negatives and may not be worth the chemicals they are made from.

But all of that details and back and forth of a discussion appears lost to you. Or at least that is how your posts come off. They come off as dismissive of any facts that you haven't stated. Demonstrate an unwillingness to consider that others know something that you don't or have considered an aspect of this that hadn't occurred to you. That's why your points and ideas get lost in a storm of negative posts and angry push-back. I know that your style of posting is a popular one on the internet. It allows you to come off as smart and independent with "edgy" opinions. But, there is a point where anything useful you have to say is lost in a cloud of arrogant nonsense.

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

I mean to be fair, that is exactly what you are doing as well. You will post something about how your back of the envelope math comes up with this and that. Someone will post, almost (but not) always in a conversational manner and not trying to call you out, that there is this or that factor to consider into your calculations or here is another way of toting up the figures that changes your outcomes. And you respond with a long rant about individual freedoms and over-reactions that accounts for zero of the points raised by others.

So basically how is accusing others of telling you to shut up and listen to facts any better than you telling people to shut up and listen to your facts?

You keep asking about a potential middle ground case for all of this. Many have tried to share our own thoughts on it as well as some general information that we could find from the big wide world addressing that as well. Basically it boils down to in the United States a combination of a lack of tests, no national unified response, and the inconsistent compliance of the population made the possibility of a middle ground removed from the start. Additionally, I have read some sciencey stuff that says when attempting to stop an outbreak cold; there is no middle ground because the outbreak effects of the middle ground and the do nothing are basically the same. Not a virologist, so not sure I framed that totally correctly.

Just like almost every internet discussion, debate, argument whatever you want to call it -- people have already formed opinions and are not going to move off of them because some one else told them something on the internet. The frustrating thing is that all sides of the debate/discussion/argument/whatever have something to learn from the others. But no one is willing, myself included, to listen.

For instance, I will admit that once I understood what you were calling for, I can see your point about a more measured response to this. I still contend that the gap you are identifying between the various predictions and what has been unfolding on the ground has far more to do with outbreak combating actions taken by states and cities than your "static" math is accounting for. However, since neither of us is really certain of the details of how to math model a dynamic virus outbreak -- we can debate that point forever and never reach a conclusion. I openly admit that the phased return to life and targeted closures/quarantine model that you and others are calling for is a viable and potentially useful solution. But I refuse to back down from the point that it is simply impossible to do that currently because we lack the ability to test anywhere near the rate and the reliability required to do that. Latest news is that the tests we do have a returning both false positives and false negatives and may not be worth the chemicals they are made from.

But all of that details and back and forth of a discussion appears lost to you. Or at least that is how your posts come off. They come off as dismissive of any facts that you haven't stated. Demonstrate an unwillingness to consider that others know something that you don't or have considered an aspect of this that hadn't occurred to you. That's why your points and ideas get lost in a storm of negative posts and angry push-back. I know that your style of posting is a popular one on the internet. It allows you to come off as smart and independent with "edgy" opinions. But, there is a point where anything useful you have to say is lost in a cloud of arrogant nonsense.

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Not exactly .. I mean, you and many other people in this thread actually discuss facts, and debate the significance of them and what ought to be done about them. Whether I agree with you or not, that's actually useful or at least entertaining discussion.

This one guy in particular offers literally nothing except "Shut up, don't talk." I mean what a lazy, boring, utterly useless thing to do. Why even bother posting anything at all.

Right down below this, there is a line of text in blue. I strongly suspect that is exactly how this situation will turn out, and then we can spend all day arguing over why that outcome is still shrouded in ignorance and stupidity, even though it is, in fact, the outcome.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

But I refuse to back down from the point that it is simply impossible to do that currently because we lack the ability to test anywhere near the rate and the reliability required to do that.

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It's as simple as that. There isn't two sides to this issue. There isn't another course currently. As time goes on the approach will change as we both arm ourselves more successfully, and the viruses activity on the ground changes. But right now it's stay home for most of us except those who are exempt/needed unless you're a professional douchebag and want to kill people.