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Yeah. I should've acknowledged that Gates mentioned both tests and a vaccine.Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaDan
Since we lack both, I think the focus in the media that if it wasn't for quarantines that the economy would be working is just a joke.
Something about carts and horses.
There hasn't been any beyond extreme action. There hasn't been anything but appropriate action, or not extreme enough. By not extreme enough I mean certain Govenorns not shutting populor gathering places down, or not giving stay at home orders. If someone doesn't understand that their head is up their ass.Quote:
Originally Posted by steelreserve
No, I don't, for several reasons. First, a single-point biological attack is a very iffy proposition. Wherever that attack happens, if it's caught soon enough, it can be contained with minimal disruption to the larger society. Biological attacks are usually planned with wider dispersion patterns and multiple zero-patients.Quote:
Originally Posted by JnK
Second, the virus itself shows no signs of human tampering. Personally, for quite a while I thought this was more along the lines of a biological weapon that escaped because of a screw up in protocol at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. However, after hearing more than one epidemiologist talk on the subject, I no longer believe that. They all say the progression of the virus is natural. According to one study reported on here, "Two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2." Interestingly, the article goes on to say that a study has introduced a high possibility that SARS-CoV-2 was already in humans and had evolved according to its host. It just finally evolved into a form that would affect humans as it is doing now.
Third, the place of the attack also makes no sense. Wuhan is not a major economic center, major industrial center, or even a focal point for nationalism. It'd be like someone attacking Omaha Nebraska rather than Washington DC or New York City. On top of that, attacking Wuhan greatly reduces the chances of the virus getting out. Similar to what I noted in the first response, a bigger city with more international travel would be a much better option. Hong Kong, Taipei, Beijing, Macau, Lhasa, and Shanghai all would provide a much greater dispersal of travelers in a much faster period of time, guaranteeing the spread of the virus because actions could be taken to limit its effects.
Fourth is the virus itself. Why let loose a virus that provides a 97 percent change of recovery, especially when much deadlier viruses are available. And, if we're going the route that this was man-made, it'd make a lot more sense to take something like previous SARS viruses and aerosol them rather than the SARS-CoV-2 Virus.
Fifth, unless you believe a terrorist organization or a small state has the ability to create such a virus, the list of states who could do so is very small, and those states are part of treaties and conventions. Why is that important? Because biological warfare is outlawed as a weapon of mass destruction, which means using such a weapon makes it legal for any and every other nation that has such weapons and are affected by the virus to use it on the offending nation, up to and including nuclear weapons. It would also make any state a pariah in the international community to an extent greater than what we've seen even with N. Korea. While the threat of nuclear war is not necessarily realistic, there are hints of doing exactly that in President Bush's (41) letter to Saddam in 1991, and even stronger hints in Sec. Baker's comments to Aziz during the lead-up to the first gulf war.
So, for all those reasons and even more, I do not believe this was a biological attack. Might it have been a virus being held in a lab that got free? Sure. But there was no tampering with the virus itself and no purposed or planned release.
Good points. This thing just makes zero sense as a weapon of terror or otherwise. All of the data indicates it is a naturally occurring bug that went global. If this is a terror weapon, it is about the dumbest one ever. Any kind of organization that has the capacity to engineer something in a lab would be able to produce the cure as well. If you look at the list of usual suspects for something like this, all of those suspects or their allies have been ravaged by this virus as well. So....that seems unlikely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Craic
Further the science of this thing repeatedly turns up all the evidence needed to document that this is a naturally evolved bug. Right now, it looks like the version of this running across the US came from Europe.
My oldest daughter just informed me that three of the residents at the nursing home she works at have tested positive. My youngest daughter works at the same nursing home. Two nurses are being tested... the rest of them are being told to sanitize their vehicles when they get home, undress outside thier homes and immediately take a shower before interacting with family. They both have very young children and spouses at home. I knew it was only a matter of time before I would get this news.
Having said that... and experiencing COVID 19 on a personal level now... I still don't totally disagree with SR on this issue. The country cannot be allowed to go into another great depression over this. There has got to be a way of keeping things rolling while monitoring the situation... state by state. We cannot close down the entire country for months on end.
Sorry to hear that. I wish her, and everyone else there, well.Quote:
Originally Posted by silver & black
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Lockdown appears to have worked in New Zealand.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/09/a...hnk/index.htmlQuote:
New Zealand reported a decline in new coronavirus cases for the fourth consecutive day. The country is still tightening its border restrictions
Wellington, New Zealand (CNN) — New Zealand has managed to do something that many countries wish they could achieve: for four straight days, it has reported a decline in new coronavirus cases.
On Thursday, the country reported 29 new confirmed and probable cases, bringing New Zealand's total to 1,239 -- including only one death. Of those cases, only 14 are in hospital -- and 317 have recovered.
New Zealand, a small island country with a population of just under 5 million, is halfway through a month-long lockdown aimed at not only containing the virus, but eliminating it. And so far, the approach appears to be successful.
Thank you.Quote:
Sorry to hear that. I wish her, and everyone else there, well.
The silver lining... how cool is it that both of your daughters work together.Quote:
Originally Posted by silver & black
I hope that it does not come off as horribly insensitive to say that on a practical level, even the harshest lockdown in the world would not have done any good in cases like this, unless it also included closing down all hospitals and nursing homes.Quote:
Originally Posted by silver & black
On a personal level, I sincerely hope everyone is all right and it was just a big scare, because it sounds like that is about the last thing you need to be dealing with at this point.
So sorry to read of the anxiety your family is experiencingQuote:
Originally Posted by silver & black
Hoping for the best for your daughters along with the staff and residents of the nursing home
Not to be an ass, but it’s a whole lot easier to lock down a “island” country with a total population 1/3 that of NYC, than it is for a country with 149 international airports, bordered by two major countries, major coastal points of entry and a population of 330 million. I’m glad for New Zealand, but that’s not really a map to follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by tom444
So in a bigger country "with 149 international airports, bordered by two major countries, major coastal points of entry and a population of 330 million" we should do what? Not stay at home? What New Zealand shows is that all the things the experts here are calling for actually works. It doesn't mean we could be as successful, but it means we're doing the right things. That's the lesson from New Zealand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
Sorry to hear that you and yours have to experience this. Hoping to hear in the near future that all is well.Quote:
Originally Posted by silver & black
Did I say “not stay at home”? Our country is far, far more dynamic than New Zealand. Good or bad. Sometimes I wish I lived in New Zealand. But, and being realistic here, the farther down the road we go with isolating, the harder it will be to recover. Believe me, I’m very sensitive to what’s going on. Two of our senior care centers here in Richmond have been decimated by the virus. 35 deaths at one of them. Two friends have it, both coming out the other side, thank goodness. But my wife has been going in to the office seven days a week for the last month, trying to keep her company alive. Applying and re-applying for the loan that will keep their company’s million dollars a month payroll going for another three months. It’s a medium sized southeastern architectural, engineering,and interior design firm, that services Hilton and it’s affiliates and Marriott and affiliates (among other things). So you see where that’s going. All of their projects are on hold. Three million dollars isn’t going to do much good if none of those projects are released for 8 months to a year. My wife is doing this all on no pay. That’s what principles do.Quote:
Originally Posted by tom444
I just don’t think this country can handle a lengthy “stay at home”.
The science says stay at home works and science, and the numbers, will tell us when to proceed. I'm afraid that's just the way it is. Open back up too soon and we could go right back in the toilet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
Just gotta make sure there’s something there when you proceed.Quote:
Originally Posted by tom444
If the virus doesn't go away, no one is going to hotels regardless of what the government says. Hotels certainly won't be making major upgrades in face of tanking bookings.
This is a train wreck no matter how you slice it. Only question is if we want to deal with it all at once over several months or if we want to deal with a slow moving train wreck over a year or more.
People are terrified. Terrified people tend to stash money under the mattress instead of spending it. Our entire economy depends on people spending ferocious amounts of money daily. If there is an uncured virus rolling around that can get you sick if you go out to a public place - who is gonna choose to go out and chill at public places?
Yep! Directed at me I’m sure.I have no idea what my wife’s company is going to look like in a year from now. They were rockin. They were doing updates in many of the Marriott and Hilton properties. They still have some nice municipal projects going on, but they’ve let go 27 and after they go through the three million.....who knows. My company is toast. Landscape will be very different. I don’t blame the NFL for at least keeping up appearances. Have to look forward to something SPORTS. After all this is Masters weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojouw
Look, I applaud your wife. She is doing whatever she can to keep things going. The problem this thing she, all of us, are fighting doesn't give a damn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
Wasn't trying to come at you. All my paid work after May is in the process of being pushed off indefinitely at best and simply evaporating at worst. So I can broadly relate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
Based on what I'm hearing from one of my jobs, is that until people believe they are safe, then lockdowns or no, ain't nothing happening. Can't consult on construction projects that no one wants to finance anymore.
If it's the fall and schools aren't viewed as safe, well no one's really going to need instructors. There goesy other job.
Hustled and lined up a paying side gig, that's on indefinite hold now as well.
The hold up for all these isn't so much government orders as it is no one wants to commit to spending money they don't absolutely have to until they feel that this thing is stamped out.
It sucks coming and going. But the only proven game plan that's demonstrated success is sustained and rigorous lockdown. Everywhere that has done that is starting to recover and go back to work.
Wow! Thanks for the condescension......I’ll tell my wife you “applaud” her so she can take a bow. OMG....KEEP THINGS GOING. REALLY ! You have no idea the safety measures she takes.....every day.....please don’t respond.Quote:
Originally Posted by tom444
Honestly, I wouldn't worry about the educational side. Schools fair rather well in downturns because people need to reinvent themselves to get different jobs, so they turn back to the universities. Of course, you might end up being contracted (unless you're tenured) for online work instead of trad. work, but I still wouldn't worry too much about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojouw
What the fuck are you babbling about? I didn't say anything about her not staying safe. Please don't respond.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
Agreed it was not a biological attackQuote:
Originally Posted by Craic
Eventually the coverup by Big Telecom will unravel and the cause of why the virus can cause serious illness or death will be revealed - 5G
Across Britain, more than 30 acts of arson and vandalism have taken place against wireless towers and other telecom gear this month, according to police reports and a telecom trade group....
The attacks were fueled by the same cause, government officials said: an internet conspiracy theory that links the spread of the coronavirus to an ultrafast wireless technology known as 5G. Under the false idea, which has gained momentum in Facebook groups, WhatsApp messages and YouTube videos, radio waves sent by 5G technology are causing small changes to people’s bodies that make them succumb to the virus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/t...gtype=Homepage
Jesus, people think up the most bizarre stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaDan
https://gamepedia.cursecdn.com/fallo...652f25f36c4ce6
And people wonder why I argue that the lack of good education is the source of almost every problem. The inability of vast numbers of people to reason their way out of a paper-bag and the privileging of conspiratorial nonsense on YouTube and whatever else on the internet over actual knowledge and expertise is going to be our undoing as a society.Quote:
Originally Posted by AtlantaDan
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Normally, I would agree with you. But with enrollments down, funding slashed, and not teaching STEM, remedial general ed courses, or business...if you don't get the enrollments, they cancel the classes. I would be fine teaching totally online! Honestly, it is more about political decisions in the past 10 years that broke the university system here than the virus. But, depending on how this goes, the virus may be the straw that broke the camel's back for funding purposes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Craic
You have to understand that you're either dealing with a relentless troll or a not-too-bright 14 year old. It is probably best not to respond directly, only to periodically spotlight the highlights of the stupidity for the benefit of everyone else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkman
The answer to the last part is easy - people who are not afraid of the virus. Possibly combined with people who are sick of this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mojouw
So basically, everyone whose preferred term for the virus is "COVID-19" will continue to cower indoors; the people who call it "Coronavirus" will more or less resume daily activity without anything fancy; and the ones who refer to it as "all this horseshit" will hit the bars and the blackjack tables 4 minutes after they open.
While I wouldn't personally plan to seek out big crowds starting May 1 or anything, I wouldn't feel very nervous about going to a restaurant or a movie theater that is probably going to be half-empty anyway, where you might interact with 1 or 2 people the whole time. Depending on how empty things are, it could also be a great time to get into places where you'd normally have to wait all day or pay a fortune.
And it is not as if the entire economy is just people going out to eat. Drive past any shopping center, and everything but the grocery store is closed. Lots of stuff other than restaurants that is just out of business by decree. I imagine a lot of the entertainment-related stuff is going to have to learn to survive on half income for a little while, but there is also very likely a backlog of everything from haircuts to worn-out furniture that people have been putting off dealing with for a long time.
Anyway, to turn around the usual rhetorical argument, what's the alternative - don't re-open anything, and see how that goes?
In other words the poorly educated Mojouw was talking about who "can't reason their way out of a paper-bag".Quote:
Originally Posted by steelreserve