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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
steelreserve
I think Trump has a very good chance of beating Hillary in the general election, and here's why: The more people are actually paying attention, the worse Hillary does. Once it moves to the general election, all the "swing" voters will realize very quickly that Hillary is no better of a person than Trump. So their choice is between someone who is unlikeable but quite possibly knows what he's doing, and someone just as unlikeable who obviously hasn't even got the faintest clue what she's doing.
And I also think that when it's on the national stage, Trump will take a slightly more moderate tone, which will cause some (but not all) of the people who have been saying "omg he's rrrrrrracist!" after reading only the headline to stop and actually think about that for a minute, and go from "never vote for Trump" back to the undecided pool. And I would expect him to completely wipe the floor with Hillary in a head-to-head debate, since if you've ever seen her talk, she very clearly has nothing at all to say except "me, me, me" and repeating a few scripted cliches.
Literally the only people I know who support Hillary are people who haven't been paying attention AT ALL so far - headline-readers who haven't watched any of the debates or followed the election in general. But the closer you get to the election, the more people start paying attention - and the more people pay attention, the worse it is for her. Look at how the Democratic primary has played out so far. At first only the hardcore political junkies knew much about Sanders or supported him, and Hillary was the default setting. But people started stampeding away from her as soon as they heard her talk. Imagine if she had more than one serious opponent, and an extremist opponent at that. She'd be the Democratic Jeb Bush.
Trump has the opposite effect - the more people pay attention to the election, the better he does. Why is this? Because at the end of the day, most of the public coverage is explicitly geared to pump Hillary up and take Trump down, which works when people's involvement level is still at hashtags and skimming the headline and teaser sentence of articles that their activist friends post on Facebook 20 times a day. But once people are actually taking the election seriously, it's easy to see that 99% of that is just noisemaking. I think Trump wins it, no joke.
Trump will never win in a general election, too many people hate him. The only people that like him are 30-40% of Republicans and a few former Obama voters here and there. The Republivan establishment doesn't like him, conservatives who are aware of his history before he started running for President and are not just making their decision based on what he says and the fact that he never ran for political office before don't like him. Enough Republican voters will fail to show up (and I've seen comments of conservatives who won't vote for him in a general election), the politically correct left and stupid people will be out in full force wanting to elect Hillary just because she is a woman, and independents will probably not go for a thin-skinned clown who can't take criticism and can't keep help but insult anyone who criticizes him. Not to mention, Trump will say at least a couple stupid things that will turn off people thinking about voting for him during the general election campaign. Honestly it won't matter anyway given that Trump will revert right back to his liberal ways the second he gets sworn in and no longer needs to fool conservatives into voting for him
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
st33lersguy
Trump will never win in a general election, too many people hate him. The only people that like him are 30-40% of Republicans and a few former Obama voters here and there. The Republivan establishment doesn't like him, conservatives who are aware of his history before he started running for President and are not just making their decision based on what he says and the fact that he never ran for political office before don't like him. Enough Republican voters will fail to show up (and I've seen comments of conservatives who won't vote for him in a general election), the politically correct left and stupid people will be out in full force wanting to elect Hillary just because she is a woman, and independents will probably not go for a thin-skinned clown who can't take criticism and can't keep help but insult anyone who criticizes him. Not to mention, Trump will say at least a couple stupid things that will turn off people thinking about voting for him during the general election campaign. Honestly it won't matter anyway given that Trump will revert right back to his liberal ways the second he gets sworn in and no longer needs to fool conservatives into voting for him
Yeah, I agree with almost all of this. Ultimately, voting for Donald Trump because he's "not a politician" is just as senseless as voting for Hillary Clinton because she's "not a man". Neither criteria is a valid basis for judging what they would do as President.
Truth is, Trump talks a lot and has a mile- wide ego, but he's never given any thought to the most important question: What is the government's role in America? Nobody has any idea of what he truly believes in (probably not even him), so there's no telling what he might do, regardless of what he says.
As a purely political thing... he's the only Republican candidate in the field who consistently loses to Hillary head-to-head, and his approval rating is terrible. Unless something changes radically, I don't see him winning the general election.
I get that people are angry and frustrated, but the decision to nominate Trump is a colossal mistake... just like most decisions made in anger. Nothing I can do about it, so I may as well sit back and enjoy the train wreck. *shrug*
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
st33lersguy
Trump will never win in a general election, too many people hate him. The only people that like him are 30-40% of Republicans and a few former Obama voters here and there. The Republivan establishment doesn't like him, conservatives who are aware of his history before he started running for President and are not just making their decision based on what he says and the fact that he never ran for political office before don't like him. Enough Republican voters will fail to show up (and I've seen comments of conservatives who won't vote for him in a general election), the politically correct left and stupid people will be out in full force wanting to elect Hillary just because she is a woman, and independents will probably not go for a thin-skinned clown who can't take criticism and can't keep help but insult anyone who criticizes him. Not to mention, Trump will say at least a couple stupid things that will turn off people thinking about voting for him during the general election campaign. Honestly it won't matter anyway given that Trump will revert right back to his liberal ways the second he gets sworn in and no longer needs to fool conservatives into voting for him
Yeah, it's a huge challenge for any Republican to win no matter what, because the Democrats have about a 20% advantage from automatically getting the votes of California and the least intelligent (although in large part, those are the same thing). And there are simply more Democrats out there in absolute numbers.
However, along electoral-vote lines, I think it breaks down roughly the same as past elections. The coastal states in the west and northeast are automatic idiot lever-pullers for the Democrats, the middle of the country is the same for Republicans, and you're basically left with Ohio and Florida and a couple other states determining the outcome. It doesn't really matter if Hillary wins California 80-20 or 51-49, so regardless of her national polling numbers against Trump, all that counts is whether a few states in the middle are fed up enough with Obama. THAT is a completely different question.
I don't think Trump's support is limited to 30-40 percent of Republicans and the other 70% of his own party would never vote for him. Probably changes a lot once the herd is thinned out. Oh well. Wait and see is all we can do.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Thinking about the outcomes on the Democratic side: Ridiculous as it may seem, I'm actually hoping Hillary wins the nomination regardless of who ends up against her from the GOP. The more people see of her, the less they like her. She'll be struggling just to stay afloat. If Sanders gets a critical mass, it's much less likely they'll abandon him; it will be a lot more of the hardcore liberals and the hardcore stupid. I'm hoping that isn't actually the majority of the country yet.
Also, if one of them actually wins the general election - Sanders would do a lot more damage to the country as president. We'd be doubling down on all the stupid mistakes of the past eight years, and then some. With Hillary, it would essentially be like having no president, which is not great, but better than that. I think the last 16 years have demonstrated quite clearly that the country does not actually NEED a president, at least in the short term, although eventually it would be nice to have a real one.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
steelreserve
Yeah, it's a huge challenge for any Republican to win no matter what,
because the Democrats have about a 20% advantage from automatically getting the votes of California and the least intelligent (although in large part, those are the same thing). And there are simply more Democrats out there in absolute numbers.
However, along electoral-vote lines, I think it breaks down roughly the same as past elections. The coastal states in the west and northeast are automatic idiot lever-pullers for the Democrats, the middle of the country is the same for Republicans, and you're basically left with Ohio and Florida and a couple other states determining the outcome. It doesn't really matter if Hillary wins California 80-20 or 51-49, so regardless of her national polling numbers against Trump, all that counts is whether a few states in the middle are fed up enough with Obama. THAT is a completely different question.
I don't think Trump's support is limited to 30-40 percent of Republicans and the other 70% of his own party would never vote for him. Probably changes a lot once the herd is thinned out. Oh well. Wait and see is all we can do.
I do agree that republicans will rally behind Trump; however based on demographic trends, I would not be surprised if a Republican never sees the white house again.
Still, I think I recently saw trump was within 3 points of Clinton based on the RCP head to head polling average.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Looking more and more like it will be Trump vs Clinton, which is a shame since the battle will be between a morally bankrupt lifelong liberal and a morally bankrupt lifelong liberal. The only difference between the two is that Clinton hasn't been lying about being a conservative and a political outsider all election. Never thought there would actually be a matchup worse than Bush vs Clinton
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
GBMelBlount
I do agree that republicans will rally behind Trump; however based on demographic trends, I would not be surprised if a Republican never sees the white house again.
This right here. The "free stuff" "selling point" of the Left resonates for too many at this point.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Trump under- performed last night. I expected him to take everything except Texas.
There is still a window to defeat him if Cruz and Rubio form a unity ticket.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
GoSlash27
Trump under- performed last night. I expected him to take everything except Texas.
There is still a window to defeat him if Cruz and Rubio form a unity ticket.
We can only hope. Trump's insane.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
fansince'76
We can only hope. Trump's insane.
http://cdn87.psbin.com/img/mw=280/mh...v2v5t65tu0.jpg
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
fansince'76
This right here. The "free stuff" "selling point" of the Left resonates for too many at this point.
Eventually the free stuff will run out when the country is hollowed out and bankrupted. Trump will win the general election and run over Clinton like she was going backward.
Trump is pulling from all demographics, don't believe the media negativity. Romney is going to give a paid speech tomorrow trying to knock Trump, but it will only make Romney look like a poor loser. Trump can buy and sell him 100 times over.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Well... he's not really "insane" exactly. He's a great con artist with an out- of- control ego. That makes him much more dangerous than somebody who's merely insane.
The Republican voters must've slept through history class, because Trump is almost exactly like Benito Mussolini.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Trump is playing to the absolute anger and futility of the common American. He is saying exactly what 90% of us are feeling. That said... he's going to have to stop with the 12 year old insults and shouting and start with a game plan and tell us how he's going to "make America great". Hillary can kiss my 56 year old, white American ass.......... America IS NOT GREAT right now!
Do I WANT Trump as POTUS? Nope! I want a more level headed person in the White House. Do I think Trump would be a mover and a shaker as POTUS? You bet!
I'm not enamored with ANY of the Republican candidates.............. and even less (waaaaayyyy less!) with the Democrat candidates. We ARE FUCKED!!!
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
When it comes down to the 2 candidates it really doesn't matter who you wanted to win the nomination. There are the people who will vote party line no matter what. There are some that will just not vote for either 'idiot'. And there are the ones that will actually flip a coin in the voting booth. I don't want to vote for any of the candidates being offered. But I will vote for one of them in the end. The system is flawed.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
ALLD
Eventually the free stuff will run out when the country is hollowed out and bankrupted. Trump will win the general election and run over Clinton like she was going backward.
Trump is pulling from all demographics, don't believe the media negativity. Romney is going to give a paid speech tomorrow trying to knock Trump, but it will only make Romney look like a poor loser. Trump can buy and sell him 100 times over.
Just my opinion, but based on the national debt, the country is bankrupt.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
Born2Steel
When it comes down to the 2 candidates it really doesn't matter who you wanted to win the nomination. There are the people who will vote party line no matter what. There are some that will just not vote for either 'idiot'. And there are the ones that will actually flip a coin in the voting booth. I don't want to vote for any of the candidates being offered. But I will vote for one of them in the end. The system is flawed.
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Just my opinion, but based on the national debt, the country is bankrupt.
It will be bankrupt when the USA can no longer pay its debt. Right now it is upside down financially and morally bankrupt, but that's another thread.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
GoSlash27
Well... he's not really "insane" exactly. He's a great con artist with an out- of- control ego. That makes him much more dangerous than somebody who's merely insane.
I dunno - megalomania to the extent that he has it indicates someone who isn't playing with a full deck to me. :noidea:
Quote:
Full Definition of
megalomania
2 : a delusional mental disorder that is marked by feelings of personal omnipotence and grandeur
Yup, yup...
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ALLD
It will be bankrupt when the USA can no longer pay its debt.
No, Born2Steel is right - this country is, for all intents and purposes, bankrupt. If the U.S. Government was a private sector business, its doors would have been shuttered and its assets liquidated long before now.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
fansince'76
No, Born2Steel is right - this country is, for all intents and purposes, bankrupt. If the U.S. Government was a private sector business, its doors would have been shuttered and its assets liquidated long before now.
Businesses don't vote themselves lower income to satisfy outside interests. Do you want a government that tries to maximize income and profits? That means they raise the prices. Anyone who says they want the country run like a business hasn't thought it through.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
Vis
Businesses don't vote themselves lower income to satisfy outside interests. Do you want a government that tries to maximize income and profits? That means they raise the prices. Anyone who says they want the country run like a business hasn't thought it through.
You're right. I think what most people mean when they that is, they want a more fiscally sound/aware/smart government.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
silver & black
You're right. I think what most people mean when they that is, they want a more fiscally sound/aware/smart government.
Thank you. This was my point.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
An interesting article - "Secret Donald Trump supporters speak out":
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...ters-speak-out
I don't think anyone's under the illusion that Trump is a great guy, but as for his appeal, I get it. People are fed up with the social justice warriors and the small but vocal minority dictating to everyone what's acceptable, and that PC "tolerance" means relentlessly trolling anyone you don't agree with, "open-minded" means messing with people's jobs, families, possessions, etc. over holding an unpopular view. Liberals and Democrats are the party of Big Brother; for years people have been saying it's out of control and too far gone to ever reverse - well, here's our chance to do so, which is why people are fired up.
The fact that the vehicle for change is an individual as questionable as Donald Trump, and people will STILL turn out in force to support it, just goes to show how sick of it people are, and how powerful and deep that resentment runs.
As for the "free shit" message that's constantly being dangled by the Democrats - I cannot believe people still fall for it. Take California, for example, the premier Democratic stronghold of the country. How are taxes there? Highest in the nation. How are the government regulations on companies? Strictest in the nation.
Now what is the price of everything in California - lower or higher? What's the cost of living like, and how happy are people about that? They complain that living in California on a middle-class income is nearly impossible - uh, HELLO. Why do you think that is? And guess what the response is: Electing even more ultra-liberals who are even more clueless - and then what happens to the problem, does it get better or worse? Unbelievable how fucking stupid these people are.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Quote:
Originally Posted by
fansince'76
This right here. The "free stuff" "selling point" of the Left resonates for too many at this point.
Everybody should quit their jobs and go to college for free.
It's worked so well for "free" health insurance.
https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...e5&oe=5794019B
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Look at education just over the last few generations. The depression era people finished 8th grade and were considered done with school. High school was secondary education that was not expected of most. A high school diploma meant something. Move ahead and high school become the water mark and now everyone has a high school diploma so that once brass ring is now mostly worthless. Moving ahead again and now most students can get a bachelor degree on grants and scholarships. I actually made money going back for a different degree at 40. So today, a bachelor degree only puts you on par with everyone else. Make all education free and see what becomes of master and doctorate programs. Not saying that I would not like to see more people get their education at all. Just be aware of the diminishing value of that education when they become free and commonplace.
What this has to do with the election? Depends on which side you wake up on. On one side, we have worked our asses off to get where we are. That means working to put ourselves thru school, while raising families, and paying a mortgage. On the other side, maybe my children/grandchildren don't have to go thru sleep depravation just to get the same education everyone else has. And I don't have to pay for them while they do it either. There are pros and cons to both but I think it has to come down to what makes this country better. I like the idea of a better educated, well armed citizenry.
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Originally Posted by
fansince'76
Her supporters probably couldn't tell the difference anyway
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
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Re: 2016 Presidential Election
Wish this were an April Fools joke, but it isn't...
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SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) -- California and New York are poised to become the highest-paid minimum-wage states in the nation after their governors each reached deals with lawmakers to raise the lowest amount a worker can be paid to a record-shattering $15 an hour.
California Gov. Jerry Brown said he will sign a new minimum-wage bill Monday after it passed the Legislature on Thursday. Across the country in New York, Gov. Andrew Cuomo reached a tentative deal late Thursday with top lawmakers to raise the state's base wage.
The actions in two of the country's most labor-friendly states come as the income divide has emerged as a key issue nationwide in a presidential election year. President Barack Obama, who first proposed an increase to the $7.25 federal minimum wage in 2013, applauded the states' actions and called on the Republican-controlled Congress to "keep up with the rest of the country."
California, New York poised to raise minimum wage to $15
So, the Democrats' "solution" to the income gap is to basically double the minimum wage, thus forcing businesses to increase prices and layoffs, which will largely cancel out the minimum wage increase while at the same time eroding everyone else's spending power.
In other words, let's close the income gap by effectively making EVERYONE poorer! Brilliant. Just brilliant. :doh:
I'm honestly not sure if the country can survive another 4 years of this shit...
