High risk, reward with 1st-round quarterbacks in NFL Draft

Football has become quite the complicated game in recent years.

There's the shotgun, spread, read option, no-huddle, outside zone and inside zone runs, now routes, check-with-me routes, the hurry-up, combination routes, zone blitzes, wide-9s, big nickel, Tampa two, three technique, five technique, crossfire blitzes — you name it, and it's part of the game.

While the game has changed drastically, how you win hasn't varied much as one immutable truth remains: Teams aren't going to win on a consistent basis without a franchise quarterback.

“You have got to have one,” ESPN analyst and former Tampa Bay and Oakland coach Jon Gruden said.

As the NFL Draft approaches, teams — especially Tampa Bay and Tennessee — are scrambling to figure out whether there is a Ben Roethlisberger or Peyton Manning out there. Because if there is, it will alter the direction of a franchise.

“The only model to me that correlates to having big success in the NFL is having a Hall of Fame, franchise quarterback,” Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie said at last month's NFL owners' meetings. “Then you can put any system around that player, and you can rationalize that structure ... because the best structure is a franchise quarterback that's going to play for 10 to 15 years for your franchise.”

It's not easy to identify a franchise quarterback, but when teams do, it can lead to long-term success.

The Steelers are the perfect example.

Terry Bradshaw was the top overall pick in 1970, and the Steelers won four Super Bowls in a decade. Roethlisberger was the 11th pick in 2004, and the Steelers played in four AFC title games and three Super Bowls, winning two championships.

“The bottom line is, the quarterback position is an extremely important one,” Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. “If you have a good one, you have a horse in every race. If you don't, you better be rock solid in all other areas.

“That's the reality of it.”



http://triblive.com/sports/steelers/...#axzz3YL5CfrBp

And how long did it take the Steelers to learn this after Bradshaw's departure? I am still dumbfounded over the Kordell experiment.

Yep.

And it's why, if we see a guy we really like, who has the intangibles we look for in a Steelers QB, I have no problem at hall trading half our draft picks that year to move up and get him.

Of course, what intangibles are we talking about? That's simple. No concern about bodily injury from repeated collisions with unblocked linebackers or DEs, a cannon of an arm and the ability to stand in the pocket, and the thick-skin to put up with Steelers fans who, even after you win a Superbowl, are still "doubting if you're the guy" as one person said to me in 2008.

If only Kordell stayed in his Slash role...he would've been special. He was a ridiculous talent...until he got his wish and was behind QB full time.

Pretty much one of the original "wildcat" guys...

Then there is the choking of Neil O'Donnell in the biggest game in football. Not to mention Tommy Gun who got a front lawn full of garbage as reward for his decision making.

I think Winston and Mariota both can end up being huge busts. However, they can also become very good or even great.

Winston has many of the things you look for in an NFL QB: ran a pro-style offense in college, put up good stats, pocket passer, prototypical size, good arm, can make most/all of the throws. But what concerns me most about him is his dedication to being the #1 guy on a team and his character off the field, and those are actually tied in together.

Did he rape that girl? The only people that know the truth are him and her, and one of the two of them are lying. Even if he didn't rape her, he showed bad judgement putting himself in that situation in the first place. Then there was his obscenity shouting in the student union at FSU. Once again, bad judgement. And then you have the Publix crab leg incident. He either stole them or was "hooked up" by an employee, one is a crime and the other is an obvious NCAA violation. Once again, poor judgement. Can he stay out of trouble or once he's handed millions of dollars by an NFL team will he just get into more trouble because he can't make good judgement calls? And this is tied into his dedication to being the starting QB of an NFL team because to do so you have to bust your ass so much harder than you did in college. Often starting QB's are one of the first guys in the complex and one of the last to leave. Is he going to be committed to being that guy, or is he going to want to party late into the night and show up barely on time for meetings the next morning?

Mariota is the opposite of Winston from a character concern standpoint. He never got in trouble in college, and all I've ever heard about him was that he put in the maximum amount of work allowed by NCAA rules. As a person, this is who you want as the face of your franchise. He's going to do and say all the right things, he's going to work hard in the facility and at home to become the best he can possibly be. You know when he leaves the facility at night, you don't have to worry about him ending up in the police blotter nor will you read an article in the local paper the next day about him "making it rain" at a local strip club.

It's football that worries me a bit with Mariota. I'm not saying he's not a talented QB. Because the guy is tremendously talented, but so was every other first round QB bust. You don't become a first rounder by not being talented, it's either about work ethic or that talent not fitting with the NFL game.

Mariota was tremendously accurate in college. He has a career completion percentage of 66.8% and last season he completed a whopping 68.3% of his passes. For his career he threw 105 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, and last season he had a TD/INT ratio of 42/4. He threw for a total of 10796 yards in college, 4454 last season alone. He's also rather fast, and his career rushing totals were 2237 yards and 29 TD's for his career and 770 yards with 15 TD last season.

My concern comes with the type of offense he played in at Oregon. It was a fast pace, get to the line, look to the sideline for the play, snap the ball, get rid of the ball offense. There was no need to read a defense before the snap, hell there wasn't time. The style of offense I don't believe had a whole lot of read progression to it because they wanted the ball moving quickly. Maybe two reads, and then run. A lot of designed QB runs were in there too. The offense had so much speed, a lot of the passes were high percentage throws to begin with, with the receiver making one guy miss and then getting YAC.

Honestly, he would probably have the most success under Chip Kelly. Kelly is the guy who basically invented the system they had at Oregon and recruited Mariota to Oregon and coaches him his first two seasons there. So there is no better coach in the NFL for Mariota than Kelly, who knows his strengths and weaknesses the best and would know how to use him best.

Problem there is the fact that Mariota would have to fall far enough for Kelly to get him, or Kelly would have to trade up to snag him. Kelly has said he has no intention of mortgaging the future with a trade up to get Mariota...but what if Mariota falls some and Kelly only has to trade up 3 spots? Then I can see it happening.

But even if he ends up an Eagle, the NFL is a different beast than college football. Everyone is bigger, everyone is faster. An open receiver in college football is often a covered one in the NFL. And running QB's...for the most part....haven't had major success in the NFL. He's going to get hit, hard. I didn't see him get hit much when I got to watch him at Oregon, but the one big hit I saw him take was against Ohio State in the National Championship when Joey Bosa crushed him on a blindside hit. Mariota had to leave the game for a few plays. If he can't take hits, he won't last.

And even with the Eagles and the up-tempo offense Kelly is trying to install, you HAVE to read a defense. He didn't do much of that if any at Oregon. I'm not saying he can't learn, he's a smart guy, but he's behind the 8 ball on it that's for sure.

Like I said, both of these guys could end up stars. And that's what the media is pointing to and hoping for. But the reality is, both have major bust potential. And honestly, I think that bust potential is more than most people think or realize.

Kelly is a liar. Don't trust anything that guy throws at the press.

Here's something interesting about the Eagles locker room...so all the lockers are stocked and ready to go, Tebow has his 11 jersey hanging, Sanchez has his jersey hanging, they all have their laundry bags filled with stinky workout clothes, all the "big names" are in the front, all the hopefuls in the back...right along the middle of the pack is a somewhat empty locker with no jersey, a couple of shirts, no dirty laundry and two large duffle bags...still packed like they were when they arrived. Name in the locker reads Bradford.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 86WARD

Kelly is a liar. Don't trust anything that guy throws at the press.

Here's something interesting about the Eagles locker room...so all the lockers are stocked and ready to go, Tebow has his 11 jersey hanging, Sanchez has his jersey hanging, they all have their laundry bags filled with stinky workout clothes, all the "big names" are in the front, all the hopefuls in the back...right along the middle of the pack is a somewhat empty locker with no jersey, a couple of shirts, no dirty laundry and two large duffle bags...still packed like they were when they arrived. Name in the locker reads Bradford.

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Bradford is still rehabbing his ACL tear. They are expecting him to not be ready until sometime during TC.

Even rehabbing, his bags would be unpacked and there would be some laundry there...lol.

Here is the thing I have with Mariota and Winston...why is Winston apparently made out of Teflon? He gets all this credit for late game heroics -- most of which are because he spent the first part of the game chucking horrible interceptions? He regressed from last year to this year. His off-field stuff is a horror show.

Teams are talking about taking Gregory, Peters, Collins, etc off their draft boards, but yet most teams would fall all over themselves to draft Winston.

Additionally, Winston when pressured or flushed under duress has atrocious mechanics. He does and will continue to throw a high # of interceptions outside the hash marks in those situations. Some guys clean that up, some never do.

All in all with Winston you have a QB who throws INTs at a relatively high rate for a "franchise" guy and demonstrates just horrible decision making off the field.

In contrast, Mariota is highly accurate, he completed 68+% of his passes last year! Is highly athletic and throws well on the move.

Winston has so much "bust" potential, but he still will go #1. I guess that is why the Bucs will continue to suck.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

Here is the thing I have with Mariota and Winston...why is Winston apparently made out of Teflon? He gets all this credit for late game heroics -- most of which are because he spent the first part of the game chucking horrible interceptions? He regressed from last year to this year. His off-field stuff is a horror show.

Teams are talking about taking Gregory, Peters, Collins, etc off their draft boards, but yet most teams would fall all over themselves to draft Winston.

Additionally, Winston when pressured or flushed under duress has atrocious mechanics. He does and will continue to throw a high # of interceptions outside the hash marks in those situations. Some guys clean that up, some never do.

All in all with Winston you have a QB who throws INTs at a relatively high rate for a "franchise" guy and demonstrates just horrible decision making off the field.

In contrast, Mariota is highly accurate, he completed 68+% of his passes last year! Is highly athletic and throws well on the move.

Winston has so much "bust" potential, but he still will go #1. I guess that is why the Bucs will continue to suck.

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I agree. I wouldn't take Winston in the entire 1st round. I think he will be a complete failure in the NFL ala Vince Young.

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Originally Posted by Steeldude

I agree. I wouldn't take Winston in the entire 1st round. I think he will be a complete failure in the NFL ala Vince Young.

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Vince Young is a very apt comparison. The talking heads having been harping on that Winston is not JaMarcus Russell, and they're probably right, but missing the big picture.

I still don't quite understand why the Bucs didn't want to stick with Mike Glennon. He was raw, but he seemed he could be a very solid QB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mojouw

Here is the thing I have with Mariota and Winston...why is Winston apparently made out of Teflon? He gets all this credit for late game heroics -- most of which are because he spent the first part of the game chucking horrible interceptions? He regressed from last year to this year. His off-field stuff is a horror show.

Teams are talking about taking Gregory, Peters, Collins, etc off their draft boards, but yet most teams would fall all over themselves to draft Winston.

Additionally, Winston when pressured or flushed under duress has atrocious mechanics. He does and will continue to throw a high # of interceptions outside the hash marks in those situations. Some guys clean that up, some never do.

All in all with Winston you have a QB who throws INTs at a relatively high rate for a "franchise" guy and demonstrates just horrible decision making off the field.

In contrast, Mariota is highly accurate, he completed 68+% of his passes last year! Is highly athletic and throws well on the move.

Winston has so much "bust" potential, but he still will go #1. I guess that is why the Bucs will continue to suck.

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I couldn't agree more...Winston is an immature and entightled little boy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by LLT

I couldn't agree more...Winston is an immature and entightled little boy.

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This and this!

I'm also not sold on Mariota but I think he could do well if asked to sit on the bench for a few years and learn. Problem is the team that drafts him probably wont' have that patients.