Chidi29
03-30-2011, 09:29 PM
As it has been talked about since the change occured, kickoffs will now take place from the 35 yard line, instead of the previous 30. A lot of people think this will be a great benefit to kickers and a deteriment to return men. That touchbacks will skyrocket and the already small market for pure KOS will completely vanish.
And from a selfish, Steelers' fan outlook, this looks like great news. Every fan, young or old, has pulled out their hair after a long return or touchdown. Despite our coverage team being much stronger this season, no doubt helped by hiring Al Everest for Bob Ligashesky, it's a phase of the team that is never strong.
Will the rule change really help out Shaun Suisham, should he remain as the team's kickoff specialist? Let's look at the numbers.
I looked at Suisham's hangtimes and distances throughout the year. Referring back to the distances, I subtracted five yards off to simulate him being five yards closer.
There are two areas of comparison to look at.
Amount of touchbacks, which will still be at the twenty, and his average.
Last year, Suisham had 3 touchbacks out of 34 kicks, not including the Super Bowl and any squib kicks whose purpose isn't distance. For example, I didn't include one game against Cleveland because we squibbed it away from Cribbs all day. This comes out to 8.8%.
Now let's factor in the rule changes.
Adding in kicks that would be obvious touchbacks, such as kicks that would now be 7 or 8 yards deep instead of 2 or 3, five of Suisham's kicks would have gone for touchbacks. That's 14.7%, a difference of 5.9%.
If we were to assume the borderline kicks all went for touchbacks, I had three at -4, the percentage would be up to 23.5% (8/34). An increase of 14.7%.
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Let's take a look at averages.
I'm going to factor out what appear to be outliers. I don't have the proper calculator on me so I can't get an exact number but I'm taking a few educated guesses. I factored out two of Suisham's pooch kicks that landed around the 20, and two kicks that would be going out of the end zone.
Before the rule changes, the average yard line for the ball to be caught at was the 6.1.
After the changes and factoring in the five yards, the average would be at 2.6.
That is an increase of 57.3%.
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Conclusions
Touchbacks
I really don't forsee a huge increase in touchbacks. He was really only guaranteed two more touchbacks in 34 kicks. This was over a seven week span. So we're really only guaranteeing another four touchbacks over the course of a season.
Average
Return men are now starting much farther back, relatively speaking. How great would it be to give our defense an extra three yards every single kick?
On the other hand, the return man is going to have a little more time to get up to speed. By my calculations, if you have a return man that runs a 4.45 40, he's gaining about an extra half second by being back 3.5 yards.
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I'm still going to look at some more numbers and look at some more comparisons. But right now, the rule is obviously going to help, but I don't see it being such a major difference some have made it out to be.
Feel free to discuss.
And from a selfish, Steelers' fan outlook, this looks like great news. Every fan, young or old, has pulled out their hair after a long return or touchdown. Despite our coverage team being much stronger this season, no doubt helped by hiring Al Everest for Bob Ligashesky, it's a phase of the team that is never strong.
Will the rule change really help out Shaun Suisham, should he remain as the team's kickoff specialist? Let's look at the numbers.
I looked at Suisham's hangtimes and distances throughout the year. Referring back to the distances, I subtracted five yards off to simulate him being five yards closer.
There are two areas of comparison to look at.
Amount of touchbacks, which will still be at the twenty, and his average.
Last year, Suisham had 3 touchbacks out of 34 kicks, not including the Super Bowl and any squib kicks whose purpose isn't distance. For example, I didn't include one game against Cleveland because we squibbed it away from Cribbs all day. This comes out to 8.8%.
Now let's factor in the rule changes.
Adding in kicks that would be obvious touchbacks, such as kicks that would now be 7 or 8 yards deep instead of 2 or 3, five of Suisham's kicks would have gone for touchbacks. That's 14.7%, a difference of 5.9%.
If we were to assume the borderline kicks all went for touchbacks, I had three at -4, the percentage would be up to 23.5% (8/34). An increase of 14.7%.
-------------
Let's take a look at averages.
I'm going to factor out what appear to be outliers. I don't have the proper calculator on me so I can't get an exact number but I'm taking a few educated guesses. I factored out two of Suisham's pooch kicks that landed around the 20, and two kicks that would be going out of the end zone.
Before the rule changes, the average yard line for the ball to be caught at was the 6.1.
After the changes and factoring in the five yards, the average would be at 2.6.
That is an increase of 57.3%.
-------------
Conclusions
Touchbacks
I really don't forsee a huge increase in touchbacks. He was really only guaranteed two more touchbacks in 34 kicks. This was over a seven week span. So we're really only guaranteeing another four touchbacks over the course of a season.
Average
Return men are now starting much farther back, relatively speaking. How great would it be to give our defense an extra three yards every single kick?
On the other hand, the return man is going to have a little more time to get up to speed. By my calculations, if you have a return man that runs a 4.45 40, he's gaining about an extra half second by being back 3.5 yards.
------------
I'm still going to look at some more numbers and look at some more comparisons. But right now, the rule is obviously going to help, but I don't see it being such a major difference some have made it out to be.
Feel free to discuss.