How Kickoff Rule Change will Effect Steelers

[Chidi29]

As it has been talked about since the change occured, kickoffs will now take place from the 35 yard line, instead of the previous 30. A lot of people think this will be a great benefit to kickers and a deteriment to return men. That touchbacks will skyrocket and the already small market for pure KOS will completely vanish.

And from a selfish, Steelers' fan outlook, this looks like great news. Every fan, young or old, has pulled out their hair after a long return or touchdown. Despite our coverage team being much stronger this season, no doubt helped by hiring Al Everest for Bob Ligashesky, it's a phase of the team that is never strong.

Will the rule change really help out Shaun Suisham, should he remain as the team's kickoff specialist? Let's look at the numbers.

I looked at Suisham's hangtimes and distances throughout the year. Referring back to the distances, I subtracted five yards off to simulate him being five yards closer.

There are two areas of comparison to look at.

Amount of touchbacks, which will still be at the twenty, and his average.

Last year, Suisham had 3 touchbacks out of 34 kicks, not including the Super Bowl and any squib kicks whose purpose isn't distance. For example, I didn't include one game against Cleveland because we squibbed it away from Cribbs all day. This comes out to 8.8%.

Now let's factor in the rule changes.

Adding in kicks that would be obvious touchbacks, such as kicks that would now be 7 or 8 yards deep instead of 2 or 3, five of Suisham's kicks would have gone for touchbacks. That's 14.7%, a difference of 5.9%.

If we were to assume the borderline kicks all went for touchbacks, I had three at -4, the percentage would be up to 23.5% (8/34). An increase of 14.7%.

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Let's take a look at averages.

I'm going to factor out what appear to be outliers. I don't have the proper calculator on me so I can't get an exact number but I'm taking a few educated guesses. I factored out two of Suisham's pooch kicks that landed around the 20, and two kicks that would be going out of the end zone.

Before the rule changes, the average yard line for the ball to be caught at was the 6.1.

After the changes and factoring in the five yards, the average would be at 2.6.

That is an increase of 57.3%.

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Conclusions

Touchbacks

I really don't forsee a huge increase in touchbacks. He was really only guaranteed two more touchbacks in 34 kicks. This was over a seven week span. So we're really only guaranteeing another four touchbacks over the course of a season.

Average

Return men are now starting much farther back, relatively speaking. How great would it be to give our defense an extra three yards every single kick?

On the other hand, the return man is going to have a little more time to get up to speed. By my calculations, if you have a return man that runs a 4.45 40, he's gaining about an extra half second by being back 3.5 yards.

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I'm still going to look at some more numbers and look at some more comparisons. But right now, the rule is obviously going to help, but I don't see it being such a major difference some have made it out to be.

Feel free to discuss.

[Count Steeler]

One thing to consider though. Being 5 yards closer, you don't need the hang time if you can kick it through the end zone. I think that was one of the reasons they moved it back to the 30, too many kickers could kick it out and there would rarely be a return.

[Chidi29]

One thing to consider though. Being 5 yards closer, you don't need the hang time if you can kick it through the end zone. I think that was one of the reasons they moved it back to the 30, too many kickers could kick it out and there would rarely be a return.

On the flip side, if you kick a low-liner and you don't get all of it leading to the return man able to run it out, you're in a lot of trouble.

I've personally felt that hangtime is much more important than distance.

[Craic]

Not bad Chidi. The only thing I would disagree with, is that there is no difference for a return man in the amount of time he will have to get up to speed. Why? Because the kickoff position is being moved up five yards as well, negating any help a return man may get. Actually, if anything, it will DECREASE the amount of time that a return man has to get up to speed, as the coverage team will have 5 yards less to run. After all, the kicker is going to be kicking the ball the same distance either way-its just that the longer kicks which make up the average, won't be returnable now.

[Chidi29]

Good point Preacher. Forgot about that.

[7willBheaven]

You have way too much time on your hands Chidi...and now my head hurts...to much thinking/etc...damn. hahha

[steeldawg]

what about the kicker only getting a 5 yrd running start wont that effect the distance of his kick?

[steelreserve]

Basically, our kickoffs have sucked for close to a decade and this can only help us. I had hope for Suisham because, let's face it -- just about ANYONE would do better than Reed -- but no dice.

[Moose]

First of all, I think the QB should return the kick....since you aren't allowed to tackle him there will be nothing but TD's on every kickoff. Seriously though, I really don't see this being a big factor either. I too think the 'hangtime' is important. Allowing your men to get in the position to make a play and making them start between the goal line and 20 yrd line versus the ball on the 20. Now with the special teams being pretty pathetic that hasn't happened often in our games.

[SteelerEmpire]

This team has a habit of losing games in which an opposing team returned a kickoff for a touchdown. The more this team can get their competitor to down the ball in the end zone, the better.