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View Full Version : QB sacks bad? Running Good? Not in today's NFL



Craic
02-11-2011, 03:38 AM
Ok, I know, you are thinking, "This is easy math. 10 + a negative number makes it harder to get a first down than 10+ a positive number." Oh if it was that easy. Unfortunately, in today's NFL, figuring out how sacks hurt a team isn't simply addition and subtraction, rather it is more like an algebra equation, because the statistics just do not equate to sacks being bad.

Let's take a look at this years numbers.

Out of the top 5 QB's in least sacks, 3 made it to the playoffs, two of the three lost in the first game (Manning and Brees). Of the bottom five, 2 made it to the playoffs, 1 of 2 lost in the first game.

Of the next top 5 (6-10) in least amount of sacks, 2 of 5 made it to the playoffs, again, 1 of 2 lost in the first game played. Of the next bottom five, 0 of 2 lost in the first game played.

However, let's get down to the brass tax here. Championship games! Well, Ben R., the 8th most sack QB, won the game over Sanchez, the 24th most sack QB. Rodgers, the 15th most sack QB, won the game over Jay Cutler, the MOST SACKED QB in the league.

That's right, 3/4 qb's in the championship games, were in the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league.

Oh, and for posterity's sake, the Steelers had 3 sacks to the Pack's 1 sack in the SB.

And a look at the QB ratings also verify the lackluster effect of sacks. Average sacks Percentage is Brett Favre and Chad Henne, both at 5.8 sacks per 100 dropbacks.

Ranked according to QB rating, here are the ranks and sacks of all QB's who were sacked at a higher percentage than average.

2 Phillip Rivers, 6.6
3 Aaron Rodgers, 6.0
4 Michael Vick, 8.4
5 Ben Roethlisberger 7.6
7 Joe Flacco 7.6
13 David Garrard 8.3
14 John Kitna 6.2
15 Kyle Orton 6.4
16 Jay Cutler 10.7

That means, over 50% of the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league, are in the top half of QB ratings.

One more point to make, numbers 3, 4, 5, 7, and 16 where all in the playoffs. As were numbers 1, (4.8 sk%) 8 (5.5 sk%), 10 (2.3sk%) and , 12 (3.7sk%).

NOW, Look at the average yards per run and the teams that made it to the playoffs.

Again, by rank of running.

1. Eagles, out first round
4. Chiefs, out first round
8. Jets, out AFCCG
10. Pats*, out first game played
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17. Steelers, SB.
20. Saints, out first round (Last years SB champs)
24. Chicago Bears NFCCG
25. Colts Out first round
26. Atlanta Falcons out 2nd round
27. Green Bay SB Win
28. Ravens Out second round.

What does that say? Teams with a low run game, AND giving up sacks, did better in the playoffs- With 3 of the 4 teams making it to the championship games, and remembering that the 4th team was the ravens, who played the Steelers.

So what is the equalizer? Of the defenses, the playoffs had 5 of the top defenses, and 6 of the top twelve. Only 4 teams in the bottom half of the league made it to the playoffs, Colts, Pats*, Falcons, Seahawks. 3 of the 4 lost in the first game played, Seahawks lost in the second game played.

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Conclusion

Without going any deeper, it seems to me that teams which feature a very good defense and a very good QB are the one that win. How many big name receivers were playing in the AFCCG? How many dominant pass blocking O lines? None. Heck, how many dominant run blocking O lines? None.

So, as I look at next year, my wants change. 1st- CB. 2nd- DL 3rd, SAFETY. Then, we can start looking at the O line-based on these stats.

tube517
02-11-2011, 09:57 AM
Preach, you are right. I was also talking to some co-workers in December about this same subject. We noticed also there were no longer any dominant teams. Big leads aren't what they used to be. Teams with big leads going into the 4th Q, either let the other team back in the game only to win by a close margin, OR the other team came back to win. Very rarely did you see blowouts. It seemed almost every game was won by 7 pts or less. The running game is being abandoned frequently. Sacks have increased but teams still can score.

Dino 6 Rings
02-11-2011, 11:27 AM
what "good" corner is going to be there at 31 in round one exactly? what "good" DL?

I say draft a solid FB or TE and get rid of Spaeth.

I actually like Johnson better than Spaeth at this point.

Merchant
02-11-2011, 12:15 PM
what "good" corner is going to be there at 31 in round one exactly? what "good" DL?

I say draft a solid FB or TE and get rid of Spaeth.

I actually like Johnson better than Spaeth at this point.

You wanna draft a FB or a TE... in the first round....?

Dino 6 Rings
02-11-2011, 12:31 PM
You wanna draft a FB or a TE... in the first round....?

Yep, cause I'm a maniac.

we've done OL, DL, RB, LB, WR, TE in that order going backwards til Ben.

Time for a FB. I guess we could argue Corner...but really, at 31, the top FB would be better than the 5th best Corner at that spot. Besides, I want to run the I formation or reverse Wishbone! YEAH!

bring it !

Merchant
02-11-2011, 01:38 PM
Ike was a 4th rounder may I remind you. You don't have to be a 1st rounder to be successful.

Dino 6 Rings
02-11-2011, 01:41 PM
Ike was a 4th rounder may I remind you. You don't have to be a 1st rounder to be successful.

I agree, so then lets get us the best FB money can buy in the first round and ram the ball down people's throats for 19 straight games next year. One with good hands too so he can sneak out of the backfield for passes and even be the up man that gets the handoff on short yardage plays.

then, since there is no Corner that can come in as a rookie and really be the "shut down" guy in our defense his rookie year, we'll draft a young guy in round 2 or 3 that we can develop to take over Ike's job in a few years.

Count Steeler
02-11-2011, 04:17 PM
Would our offense know what to do with a FB? Doesn't seem to be a good fit.

Craic
02-11-2011, 04:59 PM
Not to mention-running the ball is NOT a road to the SB anymore.

Notice however, I DID NOT SAY DRAFT- these are my wants, however we get them. I'd have no problem with us going out and getting a CB in free agency, then trading up (1st and 2nd to move up 6 or 8 spots) for another DL in the Daft. If we see a safety drop to the third round, heck, trade the rest of the picks and go get him.

After all, with starks and Colon getting healthy in the offseason, and Flozell talking about coming back, we are going to have a glut of people on the O line that know our system and HAVE shown that they can protect the QB, and play the run. Only if an exceptional OL player drops to us will I be excited if we pick him up.

XxKnightxX
02-13-2011, 12:33 PM
Excellent read, what I like about this is how it shows that the QBs that get down and dirty and clapped around usually end up being real football players and winners. While the porcelain statues like Brady turn into Ryan Leaf when they get their bell Rung.

zulater
02-13-2011, 12:42 PM
what "good" corner is going to be there at 31 in round one exactly? what "good" DL?

I say draft a solid FB or TE and get rid of Spaeth.


I actually like Johnson better than Spaeth at this point.

Maybe this would be a good year to trade up to get the right cornerback? After all we've had some success in the past with trade ups.

Psycho Ward 86
02-13-2011, 01:24 PM
I say draft a solid FB or TE and get rid of Spaeth.



Wow, im sure glad you arent the GM

Craic
02-13-2011, 10:49 PM
Maybe this would be a good year to trade up to get the right cornerback? After all we've had some success in the past with trade ups.

Yeah, I suggested in another thread that in all reality, this would be the year to trade a second, or a second and third to move up. We still have Hoke AND Big Snack that can play center. We have Aaron coming back and, IMO, should actually take a back seat to Ziggy-so he can stay fresh and be available all season. Kiesel is going strong. Nick Eason is only 31, and is also a very good backup, so if we lose our ENTIRE Dline, our line will consist of Eason, Hoke, and Aaron Smith. That line, is as good as half the 3-4 lines out there.

We have a glut of O line with everyone coming back healthy, we have a glut of receivers that are already very good and are just going to get better. We are completely set at RB and QB, with no room, nor really any reason to want to bring anyone else in (except to eat up reps). LB's? WE have the top LB corp in the NFL, and our backups are Sylvester, Fox, and Worlids, all of who have shown that they can either play at this level now (Fox, as a very good backup), or have tremendous upside. That leaves only 2 positions that need looking at, CB and Safety. Personally, I like our SS, FS combination. So whoever we get, has to be willing to take a back seat for a while, or just play in a cover-3 or dime package.

That is why, as I said before, I'd have no problem this year, spending our 1, 2, and 3 on a good CB out of college, because frankly, I just don't see a lot of people making this team that aren't on it already.