Craic
02-11-2011, 03:38 AM
Ok, I know, you are thinking, "This is easy math. 10 + a negative number makes it harder to get a first down than 10+ a positive number." Oh if it was that easy. Unfortunately, in today's NFL, figuring out how sacks hurt a team isn't simply addition and subtraction, rather it is more like an algebra equation, because the statistics just do not equate to sacks being bad.
Let's take a look at this years numbers.
Out of the top 5 QB's in least sacks, 3 made it to the playoffs, two of the three lost in the first game (Manning and Brees). Of the bottom five, 2 made it to the playoffs, 1 of 2 lost in the first game.
Of the next top 5 (6-10) in least amount of sacks, 2 of 5 made it to the playoffs, again, 1 of 2 lost in the first game played. Of the next bottom five, 0 of 2 lost in the first game played.
However, let's get down to the brass tax here. Championship games! Well, Ben R., the 8th most sack QB, won the game over Sanchez, the 24th most sack QB. Rodgers, the 15th most sack QB, won the game over Jay Cutler, the MOST SACKED QB in the league.
That's right, 3/4 qb's in the championship games, were in the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league.
Oh, and for posterity's sake, the Steelers had 3 sacks to the Pack's 1 sack in the SB.
And a look at the QB ratings also verify the lackluster effect of sacks. Average sacks Percentage is Brett Favre and Chad Henne, both at 5.8 sacks per 100 dropbacks.
Ranked according to QB rating, here are the ranks and sacks of all QB's who were sacked at a higher percentage than average.
2 Phillip Rivers, 6.6
3 Aaron Rodgers, 6.0
4 Michael Vick, 8.4
5 Ben Roethlisberger 7.6
7 Joe Flacco 7.6
13 David Garrard 8.3
14 John Kitna 6.2
15 Kyle Orton 6.4
16 Jay Cutler 10.7
That means, over 50% of the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league, are in the top half of QB ratings.
One more point to make, numbers 3, 4, 5, 7, and 16 where all in the playoffs. As were numbers 1, (4.8 sk%) 8 (5.5 sk%), 10 (2.3sk%) and , 12 (3.7sk%).
NOW, Look at the average yards per run and the teams that made it to the playoffs.
Again, by rank of running.
1. Eagles, out first round
4. Chiefs, out first round
8. Jets, out AFCCG
10. Pats*, out first game played
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17. Steelers, SB.
20. Saints, out first round (Last years SB champs)
24. Chicago Bears NFCCG
25. Colts Out first round
26. Atlanta Falcons out 2nd round
27. Green Bay SB Win
28. Ravens Out second round.
What does that say? Teams with a low run game, AND giving up sacks, did better in the playoffs- With 3 of the 4 teams making it to the championship games, and remembering that the 4th team was the ravens, who played the Steelers.
So what is the equalizer? Of the defenses, the playoffs had 5 of the top defenses, and 6 of the top twelve. Only 4 teams in the bottom half of the league made it to the playoffs, Colts, Pats*, Falcons, Seahawks. 3 of the 4 lost in the first game played, Seahawks lost in the second game played.
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Conclusion
Without going any deeper, it seems to me that teams which feature a very good defense and a very good QB are the one that win. How many big name receivers were playing in the AFCCG? How many dominant pass blocking O lines? None. Heck, how many dominant run blocking O lines? None.
So, as I look at next year, my wants change. 1st- CB. 2nd- DL 3rd, SAFETY. Then, we can start looking at the O line-based on these stats.
Let's take a look at this years numbers.
Out of the top 5 QB's in least sacks, 3 made it to the playoffs, two of the three lost in the first game (Manning and Brees). Of the bottom five, 2 made it to the playoffs, 1 of 2 lost in the first game.
Of the next top 5 (6-10) in least amount of sacks, 2 of 5 made it to the playoffs, again, 1 of 2 lost in the first game played. Of the next bottom five, 0 of 2 lost in the first game played.
However, let's get down to the brass tax here. Championship games! Well, Ben R., the 8th most sack QB, won the game over Sanchez, the 24th most sack QB. Rodgers, the 15th most sack QB, won the game over Jay Cutler, the MOST SACKED QB in the league.
That's right, 3/4 qb's in the championship games, were in the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league.
Oh, and for posterity's sake, the Steelers had 3 sacks to the Pack's 1 sack in the SB.
And a look at the QB ratings also verify the lackluster effect of sacks. Average sacks Percentage is Brett Favre and Chad Henne, both at 5.8 sacks per 100 dropbacks.
Ranked according to QB rating, here are the ranks and sacks of all QB's who were sacked at a higher percentage than average.
2 Phillip Rivers, 6.6
3 Aaron Rodgers, 6.0
4 Michael Vick, 8.4
5 Ben Roethlisberger 7.6
7 Joe Flacco 7.6
13 David Garrard 8.3
14 John Kitna 6.2
15 Kyle Orton 6.4
16 Jay Cutler 10.7
That means, over 50% of the top half of the most sacked QB's in the league, are in the top half of QB ratings.
One more point to make, numbers 3, 4, 5, 7, and 16 where all in the playoffs. As were numbers 1, (4.8 sk%) 8 (5.5 sk%), 10 (2.3sk%) and , 12 (3.7sk%).
NOW, Look at the average yards per run and the teams that made it to the playoffs.
Again, by rank of running.
1. Eagles, out first round
4. Chiefs, out first round
8. Jets, out AFCCG
10. Pats*, out first game played
_____________
17. Steelers, SB.
20. Saints, out first round (Last years SB champs)
24. Chicago Bears NFCCG
25. Colts Out first round
26. Atlanta Falcons out 2nd round
27. Green Bay SB Win
28. Ravens Out second round.
What does that say? Teams with a low run game, AND giving up sacks, did better in the playoffs- With 3 of the 4 teams making it to the championship games, and remembering that the 4th team was the ravens, who played the Steelers.
So what is the equalizer? Of the defenses, the playoffs had 5 of the top defenses, and 6 of the top twelve. Only 4 teams in the bottom half of the league made it to the playoffs, Colts, Pats*, Falcons, Seahawks. 3 of the 4 lost in the first game played, Seahawks lost in the second game played.
__________________________________
Conclusion
Without going any deeper, it seems to me that teams which feature a very good defense and a very good QB are the one that win. How many big name receivers were playing in the AFCCG? How many dominant pass blocking O lines? None. Heck, how many dominant run blocking O lines? None.
So, as I look at next year, my wants change. 1st- CB. 2nd- DL 3rd, SAFETY. Then, we can start looking at the O line-based on these stats.