Could Jalen Samuels be odd man out?

[Born2Steel]

https://stillcurtain.com/2020/01/28/steelers-jaylen-samuels-odd-next-season/

I found this 2 month old article talking about the steelers draft needs and rebuilding the offense after that disaster showing last season. This article is older(mentions Nix being a lock in the backfield) but brings up some interesting stats:

1. When the offense was healthy Samuels gained 4.6yds per carry and 7.7yds per reception. That fell off drastically last season due to injuries and the sky falling to 2.7yds per carry and 6.5yds per reception.

2. Conner is the expected starter and Snell is his rotation/backup for when Conner needs a breather or should he get injured. Adding FB Derek Watt puts the lock positions(assuming everyone is healthy week1) at 3, with Samuels, Edmunds, and Whyte on the outside looking in.

3. On 336 run plays by the 5 main RBs for the Steelers had a combined 2 fumbles. Diontae Johnson and Duck had 1 each, and Jordan Berry had 3 for a total of 7 fumbles last season. As many of you may have read on here my opinion on fumbles is they are unacceptable in any form.

If Samuels really is on his way off of the Steelers(I'm hoping not and he returns to pre-surgery form) then a draft pick at RB may be in the cards. I would still not want the 2 leading candidates in Taylor or Akers purely based on 28 fumbles between them in 3 seasons. IF the Steelers MUST draft a RB and let Samuels go I am still really high on another Swiss Army Knife type that can play at multiple positions and not just another Conner/Snell clone. Antonio Gibson(RB/WR/KR/PR) or Chase Claypool(TE/WR/HB) would be better options IMO even if needing to be taken at 49. Bottom line is the offensive production MUST be increased drastically for the defense to be able to work at it's optimum and maybe drafting some skill players that bring more depth to the offense as a whole and not just at a primary position may be the answer. I don't believe Samuels will be gone this offseason but it does bring up an interesting twist heading into the draft next week. I appreciate any and all thoughts and opinions .

[polamalubeast]

I think Samuel needs to improve a lot, especially as a runner if he wants to make the team .... Samuel is one of the big reasons why I want the steelers to draft an RB and if the steelers draft an RB in the first 4 round, I believe he will be released before the season.

[86WARD]

Pressed, I’d rather keep Samuels than Snell...if it came to that...

[Born2Steel]

Pressed, I’d rather keep Samuels than Snell...if it came to that...

Elaborate a little, please. I think I know where you're coming from. Samuels is more of a dual threat than Snell, and Snell is more of a clone to Conner?

With Conner being 'less than indestructible' maybe Snell is the main backup over Samuels being more of the same style runner? I think the article made me question if Samuels will be the same RB as before or after his surgery. I don't know what the coaches saw once he returned and how much that may sway this whole conversation. Pure speculation really.

[Dwinsgames]

IMHO ....

everything improves with a healthy Ben on the field in 2020 ... no more 8 in the box hence higher rushing averages and more holes to run through ...

receivers get better instantly because the ball will be out on time and delivered to where it should be not 2 yards over their head or 3 feet behind them ...

the line looks better too because you have a QB who can survey the field a lot quicker and make decisions with the football ...

our running game in 2019 was a direct coloration in poor health and no Ben ..2020 should be a clean slate and a new beginning IMO

[Born2Steel]

IMHO ....

everything improves with a healthy Ben on the field in 2020 ... no more 8 in the box hence higher rushing averages and more holes to run through ...

receivers get better instantly because the ball will be out on time and delivered to where it should be not 2 yards over their head or 3 feet behind them ...

the line looks better too because you have a QB who can survey the field a lot quicker and make decisions with the football ...

our running game in 2019 was a direct coloration in poor health and no Ben ..2020 should be a clean slate and a new beginning IMO

I agree with everything you posted. But what is your thought on Samuels. Do the Steelers carry 4 RBs? Snell or Samuels? Samuels or draft pick? Can Samuels bounce back to pre-surgery form? There are many questions that have really no answers yet but it's Steelers football speculative talk.

[Dwinsgames]

I agree with everything you posted. But what is your thought on Samuels. Do the Steelers carry 4 RBs? Snell or Samuels? Samuels or draft pick? Can Samuels bounce back to pre-surgery form? There are many questions that have really no answers yet but it's Steelers football speculative talk.

Honestly I think Samuels was rushed back , Losing Ben put the team in a panic to some degree just couldn't afford to be without anyone else on that side of the ball with a full off season to get right I think JSam will be just fine and if I was in control there would be no high pick spend on a RB in fact I might not draft one at all ..

so for me the only question of pecking order will be health and competition during camp ..

the top 3 spots are solidified Conner , Snell , Samuels ... the pos of speculation for me is whether Edmunds ( a quality special teams player ) can be unseated by Whyte whom also has some special teams value albeit of a different capacity and brings some speed that no other back on the roster possesses ...

thats my take for what it is worth

[EzraTank]

At this point we don't need a RB. As others have said with Ben back they all get better, plus I just think Conner is made of glass which means having a guy like Snell around is important. Remember Snell was a rookie last year so he SHOULD only get better if he wants to put the work in.

If Ben is back and healthy you keep Samuels to be the 3rd down back, and rotate Conner/Snell on the first two downs.

We need a blocking TE and linemen.

[steelreserve]

I don't see any reason to let him go, but we should probably recognize that he is developing into more of a useful role player than a workhorse every-down back. Which is fine, because we don't need three RBs who are all the same. Samuels is starting to remind me of a better Mewelde Moore with a higher ceiling.

Last year kind of sucked for everyone on offense due to malfunctioning QB play, so I am hopeful that a return to normal will erase most of the downturn he and other players saw.

[Born2Steel]

Honestly I think Samuels was rushed back , Losing Ben put the team in a panic to some degree just couldn't afford to be without anyone else on that side of the ball with a full off season to get right I think JSam will be just fine and if I was in control there would be no high pick spend on a RB in fact I might not draft one at all ..

so for me the only question of pecking order will be health and competition during camp ..

the top 3 spots are solidified Conner , Snell , Samuels ... the pos of speculation for me is whether Edmunds ( a quality special teams player ) can be unseated by Whyte whom also has some special teams value albeit of a different capacity and brings some speed that no other back on the roster possesses ...

thats my take for what it is worth

2018 the Steelers were the #1 red zone offense. Without Ben and a rash of other injuries they dropped to, wherever they landed, 28th-32nd somewhere. With the return of BigBen I see a return to that efficient offense from 2018.(without the 16INTs this time) If Samuels is indeed healthy and is back to true form or better then I 100% agree no RB should be taken in the 2020 draft. I could see both Edmunds and Whyte splitting time on PS and getting gameday helmets depending on health and gameplan that week.

[polamalubeast]

The thing I don't want in 2020 is too much to rely on Ben in every game (like to throw 40 pass per game) ... It would be a horrible idea, especially for a QB who had an surgery at his elbow ... I expect a 2017 season for Ben in 2020 ... A game manager for the first half of the season (if we exclude the game against the Jaguars in week 5) and after being at its best in the second half of the season .. ..For that this is important that our running game and our defense is solid .... Confident for our defense, but our running game is a question mark ... We will see next week how the steelers have confidence in our running game

Maybe I was completely wrong in Samuel too.

[Six Rings]

I could come down to Samuels or Whyte. Who do you keep?

I'd like to see the Steelers drat Taylor in round two, then trade Conner for something.

[Edman]

If the Steelers get the idea of trotting out their offense like its 2018 again, there is going to be same old problems. Ben was Mason/Duck levels of horrible in 2019 without AB to throw to in the brief time we had him. Ben wasn't exactly setting the world on fire before he got hurt. I still believe the problems on Offense is just on a deeper fundamental level beyond the personnel. The Offense has a lot of holes that Antonio Brown's talent covered up. Juju and Diontae johnson are okay, but Antonio Brown was a game changing receiver.

The Steelers ran their Offense because their skill players were among the best in the business. A solid QB, combined with the versatile back in the league, combined with the best WR of his generation. They just beat the defense straight up. We've already seen what happens when that talent factor is gone and the Steelers have to put together an Offense that works.

[polamalubeast]

Ben hadn't started the season well in 2018 and 2017 it was even longer ... We can't judge Ben on only 6 quarters, especially when he had a lot of pain in his shoulder ... He had missed a practice I believe before the game against the seahawks and his teammates said that his shoulder was inflamed or thing like that.

Ben was great before the first great season of Antonio Brown in 2013,Ben has just needed to stay healthy in 2020.

[86WARD]

Elaborate a little, please. I think I know where you're coming from. Samuels is more of a dual threat than Snell, and Snell is more of a clone to Conner?

With Conner being 'less than indestructible' maybe Snell is the main backup over Samuels being more of the same style runner? I think the article made me question if Samuels will be the same RB as before or after his surgery. I don't know what the coaches saw once he returned and how much that may sway this whole conversation. Pure speculation really.

Yes. Samuels brings more to the table. I was a Benny Snell fan when he was drafted, after watching him play, I’m not really a fan. He’s very slow and takes a very long time to get to the hole. It’s closer to a Mendenhall slow than the patience Bell has. I think Conner will be fine as long as the O-Line is better than it was last season. Injuries are part of the game and many a RB don’t make it through a full season. The good thing is, they don’t have to get rid of one or the other. What would be the reason to do that?

[Born2Steel]

Yes. Samuels brings more to the table. I was a Benny Snell fan when he was drafted, after watching him play, I’m not really a fan. He’s very slow and takes a very long time to get to the hole. It’s closer to a Mendenhall slow than the patience Bell has. I think Conner will be fine as long as the O-Line is better than it was last season. Injuries are part of the game and many a RB don’t make it through a full season. The good thing is, they don’t have to get rid of one or the other. What would be the reason to do that?

There's an article in the OP section that is the premise for this entire thread and discussion. Basically can Samuels return to his pre-surgery form? If Conner, Snell, and Watt are locks to make the 53 do the Steelers carry a 4th RB or is Samuels the odd man out. A lot of speculation in this discussion because none of us can answer with any knowledge for accuracy. But with the fact Samuels is returning from surgery (so is Snell btw), 3 RBs are considered locks already, Edmunds and Whyte were productive parts of last year's team, and with the possibility of drafting a RB in this year's draft, simply put how do you see the 2020 RB stable panning out?

[st33lersguy]

If the Steelers get the idea of trotting out their offense like its 2018 again, there is going to be same old problems. Ben was Mason/Duck levels of horrible in 2019 without AB to throw to in the brief time we had him. Ben wasn't exactly setting the world on fire before he got hurt. I still believe the problems on Offense is just on a deeper fundamental level beyond the personnel. The Offense has a lot of holes that Antonio Brown's talent covered up. Juju and Diontae johnson are okay, but Antonio Brown was a game changing receiver.

The Steelers ran their Offense because their skill players were among the best in the business. A solid QB, combined with the versatile back in the league, combined with the best WR of his generation. They just beat the defense straight up. We've already seen what happens when that talent factor is gone and the Steelers have to put together an Offense that works.

I agree on AB. People want to blame the QB because it's easy but people forget the offense went into the toilet the moment after AB played his last down with the Steelers. Week 17 of the 2018 was when the offense started going straight into the toilet. A rapidly regressing o-line also hurt. Munchak (who year after year got the most out of the o-line) and was replaced with the vastly inferior Sean Sarrett and everyone on the o-line regressed and hurt production in the running game

[polamalubeast]

I make no judgment in week 17 in 2018 because the steelers had no time to prepare for this situation against the Bengals

Of course, AB was an very important player and I don't expect Ben to lead in passing yards again or something like that, but with a healthy Ben, they will also not be in the bottom 10 too!

The steelers offense has always been horrible without Ben ... Our record is far from bad since our defense played great while Ben missed games, but our offense was sad to see for the most part without Ben ... 2015 with Vick could not move the ball with him or 2010, outside of the game against the Bucs was the same thing(they won a game against the titans with 21 passing yards net!) ... 2012, great game against the Ravens in the last game of Charlie Batch's career but before this game, the steelers had had 8 turnovers (8!!!) against the Browns!

With JuJu, Washington and Johnson, the steelers have an above average WR core, so no reason to be garbage again ... The steelers need a better running game too.

[86WARD]

Yes. Samuels brings more to the table. I was a Benny Snell fan when he was drafted, after watching him play, I’m not really a fan. He’s very slow and takes a very long time to get to the hole. It’s closer to a Mendenhall slow than the patience Bell has. I think Conner will be fine as long as the O-Line is better than it was last season. Injuries are part of the game and many a RB don’t make it through a full season. The good thing is, they don’t have to get rid of one or the other. What would be the reason to do that?

Edmunds is gone. Whyte takes a special teams roster spot. Samuels, Snell and Conner stay. Watt doesn’t count in this rotation here.

[Born2Steel]

OK, we all like Samuels. IF the Steelers drafted a RB in this draft who is the odd man out then?

[Mojouw]

OK, we all like Samuels. IF the Steelers drafted a RB in this draft who is the odd man out then?

Depends on how they see the offense. If they draft a back, one version is that Samuels stays. Conner and DRAFT RB form a 1-2 combo for the running parts. Samuels plays some sort of passing game "swiss army knife role". Melwede Moore at worst and James White at best. Samuels would have to get a bit better in pass protection...but that is another discussion. The other version is that Samuels goes because he isn't really good enough as a passing game weapon or as a runner to justify his roster spot. So then they have the same 1-2 combo of Conner and DRAFT RB as above. With Snell pitching in here and there.

Basically, for me, the question would be "Who makes more plays that matter; Snell or Samuels? I suspect it is a very slight advantage in a Ben R led offense to Samuels. So that means Snell goes.

[Born2Steel]

According to the article Samuels ypc dropped from 2018 to 2019. Obviously the hope is it was due to a bad offense. But it brings into question his surgery and recovery. If Samuels isn't the same RB as before surgery it could very well be the end. If he does come back to the same or better level and If the Steelers take a RB in this draft someone from this roster is going to be cut.

[cubanstogie]

Conner won’t like it but they need to draft a starting RB if available. Snell short yardage, Conner back up and 3rd down back on pass plays. He is better all around and as good receiving as Samuels. Otherwise Conner starts , gets hurt and relying on snell, Samuels which sucks. Samuels offers nothing that can’t be replaced easily.

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Or trade Conner, he is only guy worth trade value. 3-4 rounder best bet.unless raiders are recipient. ��

[Edman]

I agree on AB. People want to blame the QB because it's easy but people forget the offense went into the toilet the moment after AB played his last down with the Steelers. Week 17 of the 2018 was when the offense started going straight into the toilet. A rapidly regressing o-line also hurt. Munchak (who year after year got the most out of the o-line) and was replaced with the vastly inferior Sean Sarrett and everyone on the o-line regressed and hurt production in the running game

I remember. The Steelers struggle to beat an injury-decimated and pathetic Bengals team at home that final week. The Offense was horrendous in that game. That should’ve raised some red flags right there that the Great Offense we had wasn’t what we thought it was. Ben’s empty 5,000 yard passing statistic also covered up the warts.

It’s poorly built on a poor foundation, and that foundation was exposed with the loss of AB in 2019. But that’s just me.

[polamalubeast]

I remember. The Steelers struggle to beat an injury-decimated and pathetic Bengals team at home that final week. The Offense was horrendous in that game. That should’ve raised some red flags right there that the Great Offense we had wasn’t what we thought it was. Ben’s empty 5,000 yard passing statistic also covered up the warts.

It’s poorly built on a poor foundation, and that foundation was exposed with the loss of AB in 2019. But that’s just me.

This offense was also pathetic in Oakland without Ben in 2018...In fact our offense have always been awful when Ben was out since 2004,no matter who was around him….

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It does not matter too much, since the team is much different than in 2018 ... Much better defense now, Ben just needs to play at the level of his first 15 seasons for that the steelers have a very good team.

[Mojouw]

Oh. Cool. We're back to comparing against all those amazing offenses that put up pinball numbers without star players. Let me check my notes...still looking....ahhh....here it is - no teams ever.

Goodness.

[Born2Steel]

I remember. The Steelers struggle to beat an injury-decimated and pathetic Bengals team at home that final week. The Offense was horrendous in that game. That should’ve raised some red flags right there that the Great Offense we had wasn’t what we thought it was. Ben’s empty 5,000 yard passing statistic also covered up the warts.

It’s poorly built on a poor foundation, and that foundation was exposed with the loss of AB in 2019. But that’s just me.

What is your point here? Does Samuels move to the AB role now? That might work I guess. Move Samuels to 'X' WR and draft a RB? Maybe since Samuels was actually drafted as a TE we could move Ebron to the "X" and Samuels would play TE with McDonald and Gentry. That leaves 3 RBs, adds a WR, and perhaps even upgrades the TE room. That frees up a draft pick to get another QB. Like Jalen Hurts? I see your point now.

[Edman]

Oh. Cool. We're back to comparing against all those amazing offenses that put up pinball numbers without star players. Let me check my notes...still looking....ahhh....here it is - no teams ever.

Goodness.

No one here is asking for pinball numbers and 30 points a game. Just a balanced offense that functions. I don’t think that is too much to ask for. An offense that doesn’t resort to wildcat in desperate situations because they just are incapable of doing anything.

Even with Ben and AB, The Steelers had a fluctuating offense that was heavily reliant on high-end talent just being better than everyone and cannot function on basic NFL levels without it. That is not good no matter how you slice it.

[Mojouw]

No one here is asking for pinball numbers and 30 points a game. Just a balanced offense that functions. I don’t think that is too much to ask for. An offense that doesn’t resort to wildcat in desperate situations because they just are incapable of doing anything.

Even with Ben and AB, The Steelers had a fluctuating offense that was heavily reliant on high-end talent just being better than everyone and cannot function on basic NFL levels without it. That is not good no matter how you slice it.

What offense doesn't rely on high end talent to function? The NFL is totally reliant on elite talent to win. Not sure what league your watching.

[polamalubeast]

What offense doesn't rely on high end talent to function? The NFL is totally reliant on elite talent to win. Not sure what league your watching.

It's like saying that it was a bad thing that our defense in the 2000s relied too much on Polamalu because when he was out, the defense was not the same.

Not a lot of teams can have a good or average offense when the QBs are garbage, even if you're loaded at the skill position.

[86WARD]

No one here is asking for pinball numbers and 30 points a game. Just a balanced offense that functions. I don’t think that is too much to ask for. An offense that doesn’t resort to wildcat in desperate situations because they just are incapable of doing anything.

Even with Ben and AB, The Steelers had a fluctuating offense that was heavily reliant on high-end talent just being better than everyone and cannot function on basic NFL levels without it. That is not good no matter how you slice it.

What do you mean by “balanced”?

[polamalubeast]

The steelers offense were one of the most balanced from 2014 to 2017 ... Of course when you were going to lose Brown or Bell because of an injury or something else, the team would suffer if their replacement was a scrub like Josh Harris, Donte Moncrief or others players like that, but the steelers were able to survive when their replacement was competent like DeAngelo Williams or James Conner in 2018.

[Born2Steel]

Seems there are a few variations that could be the RB corps in 2020.

1. Conner, Snell, Samuels, Watt
2. Conner, Snell, Watt, Draft Pick
3. Conner, Samuels, Watt, DP
4. Conner, Snell, Whyte, Watt
5. Conner, Whyte, Watt, DP

The way I see it is Edmunds' and Nix's roles are being replaced by Derek Watt.
Conner and Watt are definite locks for 2020.
Snell is the most likely backup for Conner.
Whyte and Samuels play the same role and therefore at least one of them will be cut.
If the Steelers draft a RB this draft it will be someone that will upgrade how Samuels and Whyte get used. Meaning both will be cut.
The only way I see number 1 happening is if the Steelers do not draft a RB.
The most likely scenario to me is #4
The least likely scenario to me is #3

What scenarios do you see most likely or least likely for the RB room in 2020? Feel free to make your own.

[polamalubeast]

It's going to be between Snell and Samuels I think.We will find out more next week but I think the steelers will draft a RB in the first 4 rounds and if this is the case Samuel will battle for the last roster spot.

[Born2Steel]

It's going to be between Snell and Samuels I think.We will find out more next week but I think the steelers will draft a RB in the first 4 rounds and if this is the case Samuel will battle for the last roster spot.

If the steelers do draft a RB in the first 4 rounds I want them to take Antonio Gibson. He's listed as a WR for the draft but he's simply an offensive weapon to be deployed from anywhere.

[polamalubeast]

If the steelers do draft a RB in the first 4 rounds I want them to take Antonio Gibson. He's listed as a WR for the draft but he's simply an offensive weapon to be deployed from anywhere.

Yeah, if the steelers add speed to their offense in this draft and can make a big play, I'll be happy

[pczach]

If the steelers do draft a RB in the first 4 rounds I want them to take Antonio Gibson. He's listed as a WR for the draft but he's simply an offensive weapon to be deployed from anywhere.



Gibson is potentially the next Deebo Samuel.

[Edman]

What do you mean by “balanced”?

For instance, not having your Undrafted rookie QB throw the ball 38 times against one of the best pass Defenses and pass corners in the league. For starters.

[teegre]

Obviously, losing AB hurt the offense. How could it not. That said, at the numbers that AB put up without Ben. :scared:

Anyway, as far as AB being the deciding factor for last season’s collapse, as I’ve posted numerous times, look at the numbers that JuJu put up when AB was out. They are very respectable. Extrapolated out over a full season, it’s: 108 receptions for 1476 yards and 12 TDs.

SUMMATION:
Without AB, the offense struggles.
Without Ben, the offense dies.

[polamalubeast]

For instance, not having your Undrafted rookie QB throw the ball 38 times against one of the best pass Defenses and pass corners in the league. For starters.

It was frustrating but at the same time most of his pass attempts were when the steelers were behind 17-10 in the fourth quarter.

It's a miracle that the steelers won 3 games with an undrafted rookie QB, so you should give Tomlin some credit on that.

[st33lersguy]

I like Jaylen Samuels. I thought he was fairly productive when used. I think all these RBs together are fine and will do well if you put solid blocking in front of them and if Ben returns to form. Plus, if the offense is as bad as it was last year, 2nd round RB is not going to make a difference.