Season outlook at 3-4

[Rotorhead]

Remaining schedule and what we have to do:
Colts - L (although the Broncos almost beat them with a good Def effort)
Rams - L
Browns -W
Bungles - W
Browns - W
Cards - W
Bills - W (if they somehow beat the Rams or Colts this can be a L)
Jets - W
Ravens - W

This scary thing is this is completely possible, putting us at 10-6

Ravens (5-2)
Cheats - L
Bungles - W
Texans - W/L (We need a loss here or to the Bills)
Rams - L
49ers - L
Bills - W/L (See the Texans game)
Jets - W
Browns - W
Steelers - L (this could be for the Div)

If they win both against the Bills and Texans they are at 10-6 and tiebreakers come I to it. The Rats beating the Seahawks really hurt our chances honestly.

I want a 10-6, but ultimately think we end up 9-7 and out of the playoffs, but there is hope still!

[Dissolv]

The season outlook is honestly still very bad. But considering all the talent that we lost, even 9-7 is not exactly a disaster. Very, very few teams can lost their top 2 players, including their franchise QB, and end up with a winning record. If they somehow go 10-6 I'm not sure I want to hear about how bad that coaching is for a long, long while. That's what Belicheck did without Brady, IIRC.

[GoSlash27]

Outlook is a lot better than 0-3 :D
Must wine! No more can loose.

[steel striker]

Outlook is getting a little better 3-4 is way better than 2-5 and, we all know it is a week to week league now days you never know what is going to happen on any given Sunday. If the Jets can beat the cowboys anything is possible LOL!

[Born2Steel]

This week Colts. Tough game already. Gets tougher depending on the injury list. I think the defense can keep us in it. Should be close win or lose. Let’s go 1-0 this week.

[DesertSteel]

The outlook is better than it was at the end of the 1st quarter last night!

[FrancoLambert]

I don’t see us going into Baltimore with the division on the line and winning there.

They best us at Heinz with Jackson having a poor game. That was our chance to split with them.

[Fire Goodell]

The Colts and Rams honestly don't scare me much. 2 more home games after the rust is shaken off, I think if they jump on the colts early and force a couple turnovers this could be a W. The Rams struggle when they can't protect Goff.

The games that worry me the most is Thursday @Browns, Arizona, and the finale vs Baltimore. The Browns will treat that game like their SB, and Arizona we rarely play great in their home field. Baltimore b/c well, that's always a tough game.

[Fire Goodell]

Once again Mill doesn't post anything when the Steelers win, hmmm

[HollywoodSteel]

I don’t see us going into Baltimore with the division on the line and winning there.

They best us at Heinz with Jackson having a poor game. That was our chance to split with them.

You may be right, but it probably depends on Mason Rudolph's development. We have to hope that he's a better QB than he was in the first game. By then we should have a better idea if he really is the successor to Big Ben. If he turns out to be that guy, then we have a shot. If he's not that guy, then the season was pretty much over when Big Ben went down. I kind of assume that if he's good enough to get us to the point where we actually ARE in a position to win the division with a victory in Baltimore, then he's good enough to win that game too.

At least that's the way I try to look at it.

[HollywoodSteel]

Remaining schedule and what we have to do:
Colts - L (although the Broncos almost beat them with a good Def effort)
Rams - L
Browns -W
Bungles - W
Browns - W
Cards - W
Bills - W (if they somehow beat the Rams or Colts this can be a L)
Jets - W
Ravens - W

This scary thing is this is completely possible, putting us at 10-6

Ravens (5-2)
Cheats - L
Bungles - W
Texans - W/L (We need a loss here or to the Bills)
Rams - L
49ers - L
Bills - W/L (See the Texans game)
Jets - W
Browns - W
Steelers - L (this could be for the Div)

If they win both against the Bills and Texans they are at 10-6 and tiebreakers come I to it. The Rats beating the Seahawks really hurt our chances honestly.

I want a 10-6, but ultimately think we end up 9-7 and out of the playoffs, but there is hope still!

I think we have as good of a shot at beating the Colts as we do winning some of the others that you marked. Plus it's a conference game so it might affect tie breakers. I didn't actually do the math to see if your scenario gives us the tie breaker over the Ravens if we split with them. Is that already baked in to your equation?

[HollywoodSteel]

I think we have as good of a shot at beating the Colts as we do winning some of the others that you marked. Plus it's a conference game so it might affect tie breakers. I didn't actually do the math to see if your scenario gives us the tie breaker over the Ravens if we split with them. Is that already baked in to your equation?

Actually, I'm pretty sure your scenario does give us the tie breaker. Fortunately for us all three of our victories were conference victories. The Ravens have three conference victories as well but both of their losses are conference losses. Obviously beating the Colts would be huge for us, but I think if things do play out according to your scenario we win the division. I'm not sure what happens if we beat the Rams instead of the Bills though. I'm not doing that math. Let's just assume we win all but one of our remaining conference games. :)

- - - Updated - - -

For the record I absolutely hate it when the Ravens play the Patriots. Obviously I have to root for the Patriots. But if the Ravens win this game we might end up needing to root for them against either the Bills or the Texans so that we have a shot at the wildcard.

Just thinking about it makes my head hurt. Let's just beat the Colts and go from there, okay?

[teegre]

:director: Must wine! No more can loose.

slight edit

[Rotorhead]

I did not take tie breakers into scenarios, to early for me to start thinking about that stuff. I was just going by overall record at this point.

[HollywoodSteel]

Outlook is a lot better than 0-3 :D
Must wine! No more can loose.

Is this a Pimply Dan reference?

[HollywoodSteel]

I did not take tie breakers into scenarios, to early for me to start thinking about that stuff. I was just going by overall record at this point.

I think when divisional rivals split, the first tie breaker is conference wins. At first glance it does seem like we have a decent shot at the tie breaker in your scenario. We’re fortunate that all of our wins so far are conference wins, and the Ravens 2 losses are conference losses. So if we are gonna lose two more, it’s best if they are not both conference losses. You have us losing to the Rams and either the Colts or Bills. This works. We can probably only really afford one more conference loss.

But it might be best to just play it safe and go 12-4 for the season. :)

[Craic]

I think when divisional rivals split, the first tie breaker is conference wins. At first glance it does seem like we have a decent shot at the tie breaker in your scenario. We’re fortunate that all of our wins so far are conference wins, and the Ravens 2 losses are conference losses. So if we are gonna lose two more, it’s best if they are not both conference losses. You have us losing to the Rams and either the Colts or Bills. This works. We can probably only really afford one more conference loss.

But it might be best to just play it safe and go 12-4 for the season. :)

The tiebreakers are:
Games between teams (as you stated)
Win-loss-tie record within the division
Win-loss-tie record for games in common
Win-loss-tie record for against conference
Strength of Victory
Strength of Schedule
Best Rank: Point differential based on conference ranking
Best Rank: Point differential based on league ranking (don't get this one?!?!)
So on and so forth.

[GoSlash27]

Is this a Pimply Dan reference?

It is, but this specific phrasing of it ( :director: Must wine! No more can loose. ) dates back to the long ago time before the pox eclipse of 2010. You see... This ain't one body's story. It's the story of us all... :D

[SteelMember]

It is, but this specific phrasing of it ( :director: Must wine! No more can loose. ) dates back to the long ago time before the pox eclipse of 2010. You see... This ain't one body's story. It's the story of us all... :D

:chuckle:

Everything marked and membered... Captain Walker would be proud.

[HollywoodSteel]

The tiebreakers are:
Games between teams (as you stated)
Win-loss-tie record within the division
Win-loss-tie record for games in common
Win-loss-tie record for against conference
Strength of Victory
Strength of Schedule
Best Rank: Point differential based on conference ranking
Best Rank: Point differential based on league ranking (don't get this one?!?!)
So on and so forth.

I have no idea why I thought conference record was higher than division record. What’s funny is I always thought division record SHOULD be more important than conference records. I must have just misread it once and had it stuck in my head incorrectly all these years.

Okay, well in that case it’s nice that the Ravens lost to Cleveland. So assuming we win the rest of our division games, we’ll be good on tiebreakers.

[GoSlash27]

Here's an image of the post that started it all:
https://i.imgur.com/hloM79C.jpg

[Fire Goodell]

I'll leave the wining to them, I'm a beer man

[GoSlash27]

Update: Outlook at 4-4 is even better.

[43Hitman]

Here's an image of the post that started it all:
https://i.imgur.com/hloM79C.jpg
lol, I remember that board and that thread.