Goats vs Ravens

[Edman]

Rudolph is hurt. Rats win. The Season is a washout.

Officiating gets a huge goat for influencing the game.

Steelers coaching fails again.

Juju is the top goat. I don’t wanna hear how good he is. That is another game ending fumble because of him.

[EzraTank]

Only one. Juju.

Game ball to Hodges. Guy comes into that and almost pulls a win out.

[BlackAndGold]

JuJu and Conner sure can choke late in games.

[Fire Goodell]

That was on juju, love the guy but he wasted a good effort by the defense

[tube517]

Goats: Juju and whoever fumbled early. Ramon Foster had a shitty day as well. Refs with that horseshit call against Olaqwerty

[steelreserve]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

[Rotorhead]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

This 100%. You always take the ball, always. If your def can stop them at the start, they can stop them after you get your chance also. Tomlin was lucky, but we still lost so it doesn’t matter.

[AtlantaDan]

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

Except it worked - defense held, Steelers got ball in good field position and only needed a FG to end game without Ravens getting ball back

This was not having Brady & Gronk to drive on a gassed Chiefs defense

Tomlin gets trashed by some folks even when his decision pays off

[steelreserve]

Except it worked - defense held, Steelers got ball in good field position and only needed a FG to end game without Ravens getting ball back

Blind luck does not equal smart.

[Neversatisfied]

Even with the loss i still like Mason Rudolph.
The defense remains the same, forced turnovers but struggled at times and the Steelers inability to capitalize on turnovers

[st33lersguy]

Randy Fichtner, it took til they were down 10-0 before Fichtner figured out the existence of the forward pass without Ben. Also the defense had their typical breakdowns. Coaching needs a complete overhaul, even from Tomlin. I will say though Hodges did play well being thrusted in as a rookie.

I will also say this, Baltimore is clearly the 2nd best team in the AFC North behind Cleveland. They haven't beaten anybody and Jackson isn't a Super Bowl caliber QB. Also this defense is subpar. Baltimore needs a clear self-destruction by the Browns in order for them to win the division

[Edman]

I too am not impressed with the Ravens. They did everything they could to blow this game and Lamar Jackson is another Kordell Stewart.

The Steelers are just really not good this year. At all.

[j-d-s]

Tomlin for not calling timeout after the completion in bounds after the interception before the half. We may have scored a TD instead of a Fied Goal there had he called timeout.

[JayC]

we played for a field goal the last drive we had in the 4th quarter. didn't go for the TD and that cost us IMO. Also that bs roughing the passer was a big help for the ravens to get into field goal range for the tie. that ref crew was awful.

Too bad Juju keeps fking up in the most critical moments of the game. season unofficially over now

[Neversatisfied]

Just listened to the Tomlin presser, i think the guy just realized his days are numbered in Pittsburgh.

[dislocatedday]

Goats have been covered well by others: JuJu with a late game fumble that gave the game to the Ravens right then and there, gets top goat this week.

There is no defense of Tomlin electing to defer after winning the toss in OT. I know he got away with it as the Steelers defense held, but I think that is the first time I can ever recall a NFL coach electing to defer after winning the toss.

This team keeps finding ways to come up short in games. There is talent on the team, so I don't think a full roster reset is in order. This is not just a reaction based on today's game, but I really think it is time to bring in a whole new coaching staff next season.

[AtlantaDan]

Blind luck does not equal smart.

Blind luck that a defense that got after Jackson since mid-way through the second quarter might hold Jackson in OT, which it did?

Whatever

[Rotorhead]

Except it worked - defense held, Steelers got ball in good field position and only needed a FG to end game without Ravens getting ball back

This was not having Brady & Gronk to drive on a gassed Chiefs defense

Tomlin gets trashed by some folks even when his decision pays off

He was lucky, but as stated above, the Def could have stopped the Ravens after we tried for points first. Can’t give Tomlin for getting lucky, the right call was take the ball. It didn’t lose the game, but it wasn’t the correct call.

[Edman]

Just listened to the Tomlin presser, i think the guy just realized his days are numbered in Pittsburgh.

This game and season was their last gasp. This coaching staff is finished.

[Butch]

You can say Juju if you want but there was a whole lot more that came into that loss. Play calling for one. Deep in your own territory and you have your RB throwing a pass on 1st down??? WTF was that??? Next time you call it on 2nd and 1 from deep in your territory??? Get the Freakin' 1st down and then get the damn TD. That is purely a stupid coaching call and cost us points both times we ran it. STUPID!!!

Now with the game on the line the Refs called a Bullshit roughing the passer cal. Totally hosed us when we most likely could have won the game from that point.

Goats - Play calling on Offense and Refs Special teams didn't do much either so I don't blame Tomlin for his O.T. call.

Heros's Both Rudolph and Hodges, T.J. and the D over all.

[pczach]

Blind luck does not equal smart.


It wasn't blind luck. It was a calculated move based on the knowledge that the defense was dominating the Ravens and he bet they couldn't get in the end zone. It worked just as he hoped it would. He put faith in his defense and they came through.

Did you see how adamant Heyward was when telling the official they wanted to defer? That tells you everything you need to know. The players totally bought in and made it happen.

I have no problem with the move in that situation.

[Mojouw]

It wasn't blind luck. It was a calculated move based on the knowledge that the defense was dominating the Ravens and he bet they couldn't get in the end zone. It worked just as he hoped it would. He put faith in his defense and they came through.

Did you see how adamant Heyward was when telling the official they wanted to defer? That tells you everything you need to know. The players totally bought in and made it happen.

I have no problem with the move in that situation.

But. But. I wanna be angry and refuse to acknowledge it is possible to do everything correct decision wise and still lose.

[Rotorhead]

It wasn't blind luck. It was a calculated move based on the knowledge that the defense was dominating the Ravens and he bet they couldn't get in the end zone. It worked just as he hoped it would. He put faith in his defense and they came through.

Did you see how adamant Heyward was when telling the official they wanted to defer? That tells you everything you need to know. The players totally bought in and made it happen.

I have no problem with the move in that situation.

It wasn’t the reason for the loss (don’t get me wrong about my statements above) it just wasn’t a good call. The reason for the loss were TO’s and piss poor play calling in the red zone with the stupid WC. Conner was averaging 5+ypc and we have that BS with 1 yd to go.

[fansince'76]

It wasn't blind luck. It was a calculated move based on the knowledge that the defense was dominating the Ravens and he bet they couldn't get in the end zone. It worked just as he hoped it would. He put faith in his defense and they came through.

It also took the pressure off of a young 3rd string QB knowing all they needed after getting the stop on defense was a FG to win the game.

JuJu has some work to do as far as ball security goes...

[Mojouw]

It also took the pressure off of a young 3rd string QB knowing all they needed after getting the stop on defense was a FG to win the game.

JuJu has some work to do as far as ball security goes...

If Belkichek did it everyone would be talking about it was some 5D chess move.

[AtlantaDan]

If Belkichek did it everyone would be talking about it was some 5D chess move.

Belichick did it in 2013 when it paid off
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000287894/article/bill-belichick-explains-why-patriots-took-wind-in-ot-win

And in 2015 when it did not
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000610216/article/bill-belichick-defends-pats-kicking-to-begin-overtime

But of course Tomlin doing it is unprecedented stupidity

[Born2Steel]

No GOATS today. Went in with a game plan that was working and winning. Then Rudolph goes out of the game and the game plan went out the window. (Mostly) Defense played well, got turnovers, limited Jackson. GREAT game by the Butler defense. The offense played well mostly but still making mistakes as a young team will do. Good game plan by both coordinators. Good execution by the players. Mistakes were made and players will learn. The season IS NOT OVER.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Except it worked - defense held, Steelers got ball in good field position and only needed a FG to end game without Ravens getting ball back

This was not having Brady & Gronk to drive on a gassed Chiefs defense

Tomlin gets trashed by some folks even when his decision pays off I was for kicking the ball and mentioned to do it in the game thread, D was playing at a high level and turn out to be the right call. Had the D look shitty then by all means you want the ball first.

[steelreserve]

Blind luck that a defense that got after Jackson since mid-way through the second quarter might hold Jackson in OT, which it did?

Whatever

Deferring did absolutely nothing to improve the chance of the defense getting a stop. The only thing it did was put us in a position where failing to do so was the end of the game. If we had taken the ball, we had the exact same odds of getting a defensive stop, except also with a chance to win the game outright.

Basically you are just defending outright stupidity, and who cares whether it's because you have faith in the coaches or whether you actually believe it was a smart move, either way it's flat-out wrong and there is no rational defense for it.

- - - Updated - - -


He was lucky, but as stated above, the Def could have stopped the Ravens after we tried for points first. Can’t give Tomlin for getting lucky, the right call was take the ball. It didn’t lose the game, but it wasn’t the correct call.

Holy shit, soneone who gets it.

Seriously, that call was like a real-time litmus test for who is actualy thinking about the game and who is blindly trusting the coaches because they are the coaches.

[Born2Steel]

Deferring did absolutely nothing to improve the chance of the defense getting a stop. The only thing it did was put us in a position where failing to do so was the end of the game. If we had taken the ball, we had the exact same odds of getting a defensive stop, except also with a chance to win the game outright.

Basically you are just defending outright stupidity, and who cares whether it's because you have faith in the coaches or whether you actually believe it was a smart move, either way it's flat-out wrong and there is no rational defense for it.

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

[Shoes]

IMO Hodges should have recovered that fumble. He actions and movement were it's an incomplete pass. OT game his a$$ should have been all over that ball.

[steelreserve]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

"Just because you dont understand," says the person who doesn't understand.

I UNDERSTAND exactly what he did, it was just terrible logic on his part. It is the same as sitting down at a dice game and saying "well, a 7 hasn't come up in a while, surely that means the odds are increased that a 7 will come up on the next roll." But no, the odds are exactly the same every roll.

Like ... you kick the ball and get a defensive stop, great. You take the ball, don't score, and then get a defensive stop, just as good. All that happened by "winning" the gamble was getting back to where we were in the first place. It is unbelievable to me that people do not comprehend that simple fact.

It's like a bet where if you win, I pay you $100, and if I win, you don't have to pay me anything. Incredible that people are actually defending that. The mental gymnastics on display are just too much.

[AtlantaDan]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

Tomlin gives another reason

1180956501692813314

Video of this would be interesting - Tomlin seems to be pretty agitated

[pczach]

But. But. I wanna be angry and refuse to acknowledge it is possible to do everything correct decision wise and still lose.


The team is playing with its third-string QB.

They only have a running back as an emergency QB if there is an injury to him.

The defense was dominating more and more as the game went on.

They had already intercepted 3 of Jackson's passes on the day, and held him to 19/28 for 161 yards 1 TD 3 INT with a rating of 54.9.

I understand people wanting to get the ball first, but I agreed with the call in real time while watching the game. Tomlin's logic made sense. He didn't want to put everything on his undrafted rookie quarterback and decided to lean on a defense that was controlling the game. That is completely understandable and logical.

McDonald was on the sideline banged up at the end of regulation. James Washington was ruled out for the rest of the game.

If fans can't see all of that, and want to scream into the wind, I don't know what to tell people. They are entitled to their opinion, but even when the results say the coach was exactly right in what he did....they say it was a lucky move and that he was wrong.

Once again, they try to make everything fit the narrative they have created. Mike Tomlin sucks, so his decision had to be wrong. Even though he's coaching a team with a third-string quarterback and a bunch of injuries that outplayed a division rival and a team everyone who hates Tomlin says is far better than them. Yet even knowing that, they still insist that Tomlin sucks and all his decisions are wrong.

You can't make this shit up.

[Steeldude]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

I wasn't surprised at all. I told my friend watching the game that he shouldn't be surprised if Tomlin defers. It's classic Tomlin.

[vader29]

Tomlin gives another reason

1180956501692813314

Video of this would be interesting - Tomlin seems to be pretty agitated

1180949979545759745

https://image.ibb.co/kFZDKU/danny.gif

[Born2Steel]

"Just because you dont understand," says the person who doesn't understand.

I UNDERSTAND exactly what he did, it was just terrible logic on his part. It is the same as sitting down at a dice game and saying "well, a 7 hasn't come up in a while, surely that means the odds are increased that a 7 will come up on the next roll." But no, the odds are exactly the same every roll.

Like ... you kick the ball and get a defensive stop, great. You take the ball, don't score, and then get a defensive stop, just as good. All that happened by "winning" the gamble was getting back to where we were in the first place. It is unbelievable to me that people do not comprehend that simple fact.

It's like a bet where if you win, I pay you $100, and if I win, you don't have to pay me anything. Incredible that people are actually defending that. The mental gymnastics on display are just too much.

Apparently you don't.

[Rotorhead]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.

How was it a gamble? We have to score on offense and make a stop either way?

[steelreserve]

The team is playing with its third-string QB.

They only have a running back as an emergency QB if there is an injury to him.

The defense was dominating more and more as the game went on.

They had already intercepted 3 of Jackson's passes on the day, and held him to 19/28 for 161 yards 1 TD 3 INT with a rating of 54.9.

I understand people wanting to get the ball first, but I agreed with the call in real time while watching the game. Tomlin's logic made sense. He didn't want to put everything on his undrafted rookie quarterback and decided to lean on a defense that was controlling the game. That is completely understandable and logical.

McDonald was on the sideline banged up at the end of regulation. James Washington was ruled out for the rest of the game.

If fans can't see all of that, and want to scream into the wind, I don't know what to tell people. They are entitled to their opinion, but even when the results say the coach was exactly right in what he did....they say it was a lucky move and that he was wrong.

Once again, they try to make everything fit the narrative they have created. Mike Tomlin sucks, so his decision had to be wrong. Even though he's coaching a team with a third-string quarterback and a bunch of injuries that outplayed a division rival and a team everyone who hates Tomlin says is far better than them. Yet even knowing that, they still insist that Tomlin sucks and all his decisions are wrong.

You can't make this shit up.

Like ... ok, Tomlin gave a reason, and it was a stupid reason.

Do you understand that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all? It didn't help anything. Not a thing. We got the ball and we turned it over and lost. Oh, but we got a defensive stop first, whoopty fucking doo. That counts for a whole lot of nothing.

- - - Updated - - -


Apparently you don't.

no u

[AtlantaDan]

vader29 - thanks for the video on the explanation for electing to kick rather than receive :thumbsup:

Yep - Tomlin was pretty agitated :chuckle:

[stillers4me]

Just because you don't understand doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. Tomlin had to gamble on the defense or the 3rd string QB. He chose to gamble on the defense. That's all there was to it.Ding ding ding!

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Mojouw]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

[Born2Steel]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

Exactly. The better move was to gamble on the defense to stop the Ravens rather than risk having to make Hodges lead the team 60-80 yards. (IMO)

[steelreserve]

It was actually a strong coaching move. Bet on your defense and gain 20 yards of field position.

If you take the kick start at the 10-15 and then punt, Tucker is basically in range on first down.

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards if it has good field position, but no more than that and no less, and it will not gain any yards at all if it has different field position(?). That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

[pczach]

Like ... ok, Tomlin gave a reason, and it was a stupid reason.

Do you understand that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all? It didn't help anything. Not a thing. We got the ball and we turned it over and lost. Oh, but we got a defensive stop first, whoopty fucking doo. That counts for a whole lot of nothing.

- - - Updated - - -



no u


I posted all those facts about the game, but you ignore all those facts to state that deferring didn't actually work in our favor at all.

To answer your question. No, I don't agree with your assessment that deferring didn't work in our favor at all.

If the Steelers took the kickoff, they would have had to score a touchdown to end the game. If they kicked a field goal, the Ravens would have had a chance to get the ball with a chance to tie or win the game. If the Steelers didn't score, the Ravens probably get good field position and win with a field goal with a kicker that thinks a 58 yarder is a gimme.

By deferring, the Ravens had to score a touchdown to end the game. They didn't end the game. In fact, Tomlin's decision to put the defense on the field worked perfectly.

When the Steelers got the ball back, they only had to score a field goal to win the game outright. They got better field position than they would have if they received a kickoff. So it did work in our favor. They didn't have to go the entire length of the field with an undrafted rookie 3rd string quarterback and being down two more offensive weapons at the end or regulation...... and get in the end zone.

To say it didn't work in our favor at all is such a simplification that it totally ignores everything that says otherwise. Everything I just stated shows how it flipped the odds if the defense did their jobs...and they did. It put everything in our favor to win once the defense got off the field. To say otherwise says that you just don't want to see it.

It's the equivalent of saying: "Yeah, I know all those factors existed and are true, but it doesn't have anything to do with my decision because I said so."

I don't understand how you can think about everything I stated here, and just act as if it is irrelevant in the decision-making process. You also ignore what actually happened after the coin toss, and the defense held them and they got the ball back and only needed a field goal to win. It clearly tipped everything in favor of the Steelers at that point, and they were in the driver's seat at that moment.

There are plenty of things that we can question Mike Tomlin and the coaching staff about...but this isn't one of them to me.

[RunNGun]

Tom Brady for being such a whiny bitch that they made a rule after it, and that rule being misapplied 10 years later to cost us a nearly certain kneel-down victory.

Juju for not holding on to the damn ball.

Tomlin's decision to defer in overtime was possibly the dumbest mistake I have ever seen made by a football coach at any level. That was so bad he literally should have been fired before the kickoff of overtime. You never, EVER voluntarily give the opponent a chance to win with one score without you even touching the ball. Even though that's not what happened, you don't give them that chance. Especially when you can get that advantage yourself just by saying "ok." What a stupid, stupid, stupid idiot.

Disagree with this. I thought it was a bold, but excellent decision. The defense was stout the hole game, plus the wind was going to be tricky for a fg kick. You saw how Tucker barely snuck that ball in to tie it up. They wanted to play field position and they almost executed it to perfection. Love the kid, but Juju has to hang onto that ball. If he does I believe we win this game.

[pczach]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards, but no more than that and no less. That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.



So if they took the kickoff and fumbled the completed pass on first down, the game was over right there because the Ravens would have only needed a field goal to win there too. Are you trying not to see that point?

[RunNGun]

Well put PCzach. That's exactly my thinking of that strategy.

[Mojouw]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning fir deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards, but no more than that and no less. That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

You are wrong on this one. I don't know how else anyone can lay it out.

The Steelers start after kicks was something like the 10 yard line. Instead they got it at their own 32.

He also is excellent at doing that pop-up kick that forces you to field it between the 5 and the 10.

In what world is it a good idea to give your UDFA rookie 3rd string QB the ball at roughly the 15 or so and be like, "Good Luck".

[stillers4me]

I don't even call it fumble. He didn't drop the ball. It was a good defensive move that punched the ball out. If one of our guys had done it, he'd be the hero of the game.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[RunNGun]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards if it has good field position, but no more than that and no less, and it will not gain any yards at all if it has different field position(?). That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.

So you think our chances were greater to March down the field against the wind and score a TD or FG versus possibly stopping the Ravens or holding them to a field goal and then playing with the wind to kick an easier fg or score a TD. It was a bold strategy, but the right strategy. The wind and field position is a huge factor at Heinz Field.

[Mojouw]

I will have to think on this one for a day or so, but I agree with the poster who said there might not be a goat, even in a loss.

I will say that I may be being proved totally wrong about Hodges. He looked decisive and accurate today. If that continues, he may be able to put something together.

If Juju hangs on to that (and stillers4me is correct, it was a good play by Humprhey) -- the Steelers likely win and everyone is on here talking about how great of a team win it was. Hell, if that ball bounces 3 more inches to the right and goes out of bounds, same thing.

Now, it is all about how everyone is a moron and doesn't play hard enough, etc. etc. etc.

[steelreserve]

You are wrong on this one. I don't know how else anyone can lay it out.

The Steelers start after kicks was something like the 10 yard line. Instead they got it at their own 32.

He also is excellent at doing that pop-up kick that forces you to field it between the 5 and the 10.

In what world is it a good idea to give your UDFA rookie 3rd string QB the ball at roughly the 15 or so and be like, "Good Luck".

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.

[Mojouw]

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.

Ok. So we now are living in a world where teams do not battle for field position constantly throughout games and seasons? Good to know. You may want to let the NFL, college, and high-school squads know that field position is no longer a factor in decision making because it involves too many other things paying off at the same time to work.

Congrats on revolutionizing football.

[pczach]

I don't know, the world where you assume that you have the ability to get a first down or two, and that your punter can punt, and that if your defense is so great, it can hold the opponent whether they start from their own 35-yard line or their 25 ... Basically, all the assumptions that you would have to make in order to justify deferring add up to, "the rest of our team is so incompetent that we are going to lose the game no matter what."

Tomlin won the first part of the gamble and that's all people care about. They don't get that there were like four other bets that all had to go his way and at least one of them didn't, so it was a lost gamble.

It's like having a five-step math problem, and doing the first two steps and saying "That's the answer," and then when it turns out you're off by a factor of 100, you just get mad.



But for some people it is also like doing a math problem while ignoring several of the factors that are used to solve the problem.

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

We all want the same result....a win. We are all just as disappointed in the loss.

[steelreserve]

So you think our chances were greater to March down the field against the wind and score a TD or FG versus possibly stopping the Ravens or holding them to a field goal and then playing with the wind to kick an easier fg or score a TD.

Yes. When the rules are in your favor to the extent that they are for the first possession of overtime, that is such a huge advantage that it outweighs all of what you just said. Which is basically just a lot of worst-case assumptions anyway.


It was a bold strategy, but the right strategy.

Clearly, it was not. I'm basing my argument on the outcome of the game. What are you basing yours on? Oh yeah, thats right, a bunch of what-ifs.

[RunNGun]

I will have to think on this one for a day or so, but I agree with the poster who said there might not be a goat, even in a loss.

I will say that I may be being proved totally wrong about Hodges. He looked decisive and accurate today. If that continues, he may be able to put something together.

If Juju hangs on to that (and stillers4me is correct, it was a good play by Humprhey) -- the Steelers likely win and everyone is on here talking about how great of a team win it was. Hell, if that ball bounces 3 more inches to the right and goes out of bounds, same thing.

Now, it is all about how everyone is a moron and doesn't play hard enough, etc. etc. etc.

I like our talent at the QB position. Hodges is cool, calm, and collected dude. I like his confidence. What I don't like is our chances of getting back to .500 with Hodges as our QB for +or- 3 games.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

You can say Juju if you want but there was a whole lot more that came into that loss. Play calling for one. Deep in your own territory and you have your RB throwing a pass on 1st down??? WTF was that??? Next time you call it on 2nd and 1 from deep in your territory??? Get the Freakin' 1st down and then get the damn TD. That is purely a stupid coaching call and cost us points both times we ran it. STUPID!!!

Now with the game on the line the Refs called a Bullshit roughing the passer cal. Totally hosed us when we most likely could have won the game from that point.

Goats - Play calling on Offense and Refs Special teams didn't do much either so I don't blame Tomlin for his O.T. call.

Heros's Both Rudolph and Hodges, T.J. and the D over all.

I agree. Both guys at QB had good days passing the football. It make the decision to let your RB throw the football from his own 10 yard line a complete playcalling mystery/nightmare for me.

[Mojouw]

I like our talent at the QB position. Hodges is cool, calm, and collected dude. I like his confidence. What I don't like is our chances of getting back to .500 with Hodges as our QB for +or- 3 games.
Same.

Despite the outcome of the 2019 season, the FO deserves some kudos for going from Landry Jones and nothing a few years ago to Rudolph and Hodges. While I am not yet able to tell if either of them is "starter" material, they are certain far better back-up options than the Steelers have had in a long time.

[stillers4me]

1180953597594537984

1180954548237676551

[NCSteeler]

I buy that there is no way he wanted our KO return team out there. They were shit all day. Smart decision. Defense had been heating up since the half. Damn bad luck. Ravens are not a good team and we are worse.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

[smokin3000gt]

Well that's so much worse than what actually happened, thanks for pointing that out.

I know what's next - "But if only we didn't fumble, the plan would've worked perfectly!"

Well guess what, if only we didn't fumble, taking the ball first would've worked perfectly too. The entire reasoning for deferring rests on a very narrow and unlikely set of assumptions that all have to happen for it to make sense.

That we are going to be pinned back on the kickoff every time and not get a touchback or a decent return. That the offense will be able to gain exactly 30 or 40 yards if it has good field position, but no more than that and no less, and it will not gain any yards at all if it has different field position(?). That if we score a field goal first, it will not be enough to win. That our punt is going to put us in bad field position and the Ravens' punt will put us in good field position. That there will be an even number of possessions and we aren't giving the Ravens a 2-for-1 (which if we won the field possession battle but did not score, is most likely what would happen, and in fact is what DID happen).

All told, call it about a 1-in-16 or a 1-in-32 chance that it is actually in your favor, depending on the probability you want to assign to each of the above. Oh yeah, it's quite possible to talk yourself into thinking those kinds of bets are good ones, but the law of probability is going to smack you in the face every time.


Would you mind sharing with us your football coaching credentials? Or your experience with managing a group of people/how many people)? You always seem to know the right answer/move so I'm assuming college or CEO of a Fortune 500.

[86WARD]

Game Balls - Defense, Duck, Boswell, Tomlin

Goats - JuJu, Special Teams and Danny Smith.

[NCSteeler]

Goat Who ever called the wildcat pass deep in our own end. You'll trust a RB over your QB? Seriously. A big WTF call

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

[Craic]

"Just because you dont understand," says the person who doesn't understand.

I UNDERSTAND exactly what he did, it was just terrible logic on his part. It is the same as sitting down at a dice game and saying "well, a 7 hasn't come up in a while, surely that means the odds are increased that a 7 will come up on the next roll." But no, the odds are exactly the same every roll.

Like ... you kick the ball and get a defensive stop, great. You take the ball, don't score, and then get a defensive stop, just as good. All that happened by "winning" the gamble was getting back to where we were in the first place. It is unbelievable to me that people do not comprehend that simple fact.

It's like a bet where if you win, I pay you $100, and if I win, you don't have to pay me anything. Incredible that people are actually defending that. The mental gymnastics on display are just too much.

Except, dice have no memory and it's a pure game of luck. In this case, there's a kicker who consistently put the ball down short of the endzone, but high enough to allow his team to get down to stop much of a return. In this case, we also had a backup of a backup at the QB position. Unless we put the ball in the endzone what would amount to a 85 yard drive (based on previous kicks), the Ravens get the ball back. And, unless we got a good drive deep into their territory, chances are they get the ball back with good field position and only needing a fieldgoal from their top-of-the-line kicker at Heinz Field. No thank you.

The gamble work. The minute we got the ball and would only need a field goal to win it, Tomlin won the gamble. Period. And, not to put too fine a point on it, but we would have had the ball at our 47 with a first down had JuJu not fumbled. We'd only need 20 more yards to be at the outer edge of our own field-goal kicker's range. And, let is not forget, he hasn't missed one this year.

[86WARD]

Except, dice have no memory and it's a pure game of luck. In this case, there's a kicker who consistently put the ball down short of the endzone, but high enough to allow his team to get down to stop much of a return. In this case, we also had a backup of a backup at the QB position. Unless we put the ball in the endzone what would amount to a 85 yard drive (based on previous kicks), the Ravens get the ball back. And, unless we got a good drive deep into their territory, chances are they get the ball back with good field position and only needing a fieldgoal from their top-of-the-line kicker at Heinz Field. No thank you.

The gamble work. The minute we got the ball and would only need a field goal to win it, Tomlin won the gamble. Period. And, not to put too fine a point on it, but we would have had the ball at our 47 with a first down had JuJu not fumbled. We'd only need 20 more yards to be at the outer edge of our own field-goal kicker's range. And, let is not forget, he hasn't missed one this year.

THIS!!!!!!!!! Tomlin's call and logic in this situation was brilliant and it worked 100% and if JuJu doesn't fumble, it looks highly likely that they at the very least get to FG range to give Boswell a shot at the win.. Worst case scenario (again, without the fumble), they punt and the Ravens start at their 25.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

It was the right call with the defense making stops the second half and fired up. I don't say it often but Tomlin made the right call.

[steelreserve]

Would you mind sharing with us your football coaching credentials? Or your experience with managing a group of people/how many people)? You always seem to know the right answer/move so I'm assuming college or CEO of a Fortune 500.

Sorry dude, the "mere fan" argument doesn't work for something so blatantly incorrect, you can only BS it so much.

I tend to have all the answers because it is simply incredible how much basic calculations and probabilities can tell you about the way almost anything in the world works. Not even anything complicated, just a matter of basic math, and of knowing the right questions to ask in their simplest form. No special qualifications needed. I have no idea why more people cannot do this, as it is very simple - but it is shockingly pervasive overall.

[Mojouw]

Sorry dude, the "mere fan" argument doesn't work for something so blatantly incorrect, you can only BS it so much.

I tend to have all the answers because it is simply incredible how much basic calculations and probabilities can tell you about the way almost anything in the world works. Not even anything complicated, just a matter of basic math, and of knowing the right questions to ask in their simplest form. No special qualifications needed. I have no idea why more people cannot do this, as it is very simple - but it is shockingly pervasive overall.

It is pretty easy to claim that the math works when you arbitrarily pre-set all the variables and adjust everything to the random ratio of "things I made up on the fly".

[smokin3000gt]

Sorry dude, the "mere fan" argument doesn't work for something so blatantly incorrect, you can only BS it so much.

I tend to have all the answers because it is simply incredible how much basic calculations and probabilities can tell you about the way almost anything in the world works. Not even anything complicated, just a matter of basic math, and of knowing the right questions to ask in their simplest form. No special qualifications needed. I have no idea why more people cannot do this, as it is very simple - but it is shockingly pervasive overall.

It's one thing to have an opinion as long as you recognize that it's just an opinion, it's another to speak as fact using hindsight and dig your heels in on everything. I enjoy shooting the shit and having views (that's what the forums are for) but I'll be the first one to admit that my opinion being an un-educated guess from an outsider would be overly generous.

I also get a kick when people talk about how easy it is to manage a team/AB/LeVeon/ect and what they would do if they were the coach when in all likely hood they've never had to manage five people, let alone an entire roster, coaches, practice squad, draft, and all the other moving pieces that comes with being a head coach. To carry on like we have all the answers after a few hours of drinking beers and watching games better than the people who study this year-round and do this 70hrs/week for the last 20 years is laughable. It's fun to kick things around but at the end of the day, let's admit our limitations or at least admit we may be wrong from time to time.

[steelreserve]

It is pretty easy to claim that the math works when you arbitrarily pre-set all the variables and adjust everything to the random ratio of "things I made up on the fly".

Unless the odds of those are ALL 90%-plus in our favor, guess what, it's still a losing bet.

The really, really important part - and I mean REALLY important - is that there was no payoff for winning the gamble. Any sequence of events that works when we kick the ball to them requires an immediate defensive stop, and therefore also works when we have the ball first. Like, no joke.

Who won the football game?

[Mojouw]

Unless the odds of those are ALL 90%-plus in our favor, guess what, it's still a losing bet.

The really, really important part - and I mean REALLY important - is that there was no payoff for winning the gamble. Any sequence of events that works when we kick the ball to them requires an immediate defensive stop, and therefore also works when we have the ball first. Like, no joke.

Who won the football game?

The pay off was the Steelers got the ball at the 32 instead of the 12 AND they only needed a FG to win the game not a TD.

The payoff was field position. You know that thing that teams often spend whole gameplans figuring out how to get the advantage in...

[steelreserve]

It's one thing to have an opinion as long as you recognize that it's just an opinion, it's another to speak as fact using hindsight and dig your heels in on everything. I enjoy shooting the shit and having views (that's what the forums are for) but I'll be the first one to admit that my opinion being an un-educated guess from an outsider would be overly generous.

I also get a kick when people talk about how easy it is to manage a team/AB/LeVeon/ect and what they would do if they were the coach when in all likely hood they've never had to manage five people, let alone an entire roster, coaches, practice squad, draft, and all the other moving pieces that comes with being a head coach. To carry on like we have all the answers after a few hours of drinking beers and watching games better than the people who study this year-round and do this 70hrs/week for the last 20 years is laughable. It's fun to kick things around but at the end of the day, let's admit our limitations or at least admit we may be wrong from time to time.

There are plenty of times when I have misjudged players, people, strategies - especially the kind of stuff where you just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, or what is on people's minds, and the right answer depends on that.

Here, however, we are basically just talking about the rules of the game, and it IS just math, and not difficult math either.

[Craic]

The pay off was the Steelers got the ball at the 32 instead of the 12 AND they only needed a FG to win the game not a TD.

The payoff was field position and a reduction of four points necessarily to win the game with a single possession. You know that thing that teams often spend whole gameplans figuring out how to get the advantage in...

FIFY

- - - Updated - - -


There are plenty of times when I have misjudged players, people, strategies - especially the kind of stuff where you just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, or what is on people's minds, and the right answer depends on that.

Here, however, we are basically just talking about the rules of the game, and it IS just math, and not difficult math either.

Your exactly right. Ball on 32 rather than 12, +20 yards.
Needing fieldgoal (3) rather than TD (7) to win, +4 points.

The math says he won the bet. Period. Nothing that happened after they got the ball back changes that fact.

[Mojouw]

In the last 7 years, teams have a 42% chance of scoring a FG and a 34% chance of scoring a TD on drives starting inside their own 15 yard line.

Those numbers jump to 53% and 45% respectively when starting at their own 35 or better.

See? It is just math. Simple math at that. I mean, what does it matter that I totally made up the numbers and plucked the ratios out of thin air? As long as it sounds good.

[GoSlash27]

I can't really be mad at anyone for this loss. No goats from me. 1-4 and we press on...

[teegre]

Here is some things to consider:

1. Let's say that the Steelers take the ball. They drive down and kick a FG. Now, the Ravens know that they HAVE to go for it on 4th down. It gives the Ravens the advantage of an extra down.. which means that they are more likely to run the ball (their strength); whereas, since they have the ball first, they are more likely to pass (which they are not as good at). Since the Steelers defense was playing lights out, the smart move was to eliminate that extra down, thus creating more passing opportunities...

2. ...because the Steelers had already picked off Jackson three times today. Chances were that they would likely do it again.

3. When Tucker's final kick went up, who didn't think it was a miss??? I sure thought it was a miss. There are legitimate reasons why kickers hate kicking into that end of the stadium.

SUMMATION:
My dad hates Tomlin, and would find ANY reason to pour on some derision. Yet, my dad thought deferring was the correct call. (That is all the proof that I need.)

[smokin3000gt]

There are plenty of times when I have misjudged players, people, strategies - especially the kind of stuff where you just do not know what is going on behind closed doors, or what is on people's minds, and the right answer depends on that.

Here, however, we are basically just talking about the rules of the game, and it IS just math, and not difficult math either.

Precisely what mathematic formula would you have conjured up in your head, on the sideline in 60 seconds to guarantee victory?

[steelreserve]

The pay off was the Steelers got the ball at the 32 instead of the 12 AND they only needed a FG to win the game not a TD.

The payoff was field position. You know that thing that teams often spend whole gameplans figuring out how to get the advantage in...

Lot of assumptions there. We maybe gained 15 yards of field position, or maybe not. Look at the box score, there was ONE time when we got the ball on the 15 because of a well-placed kick by Tucker. One time. One other kickoff we were backed up because of a holding penalty, but the return was to the 26. The rest were all touchbacks. So we took a HUGE risk to maybe gain 7 yards of field position, given the actual history of the kickoffs in the game and not the emotional anecdotal history of one play.

Then - since the whole notion of "winning" the gamble is based on the assumption that the defense was going to get a stop ... well, they had to get a three-and-out either way. (if we defer and allow a first down or two - no field position gain anyway). It's kind of like those clowns who think it's a good decision to kick the ball away instead of do an onside kick with 2 minutes left. "Oh no, if we don't make recover, they have the ball on the 40!" Well guess what moron, the result is exactly the same either way: Allow one first down and you're screwed.

Basically, the whole decision was based on an assumption about field position that wasn't true in the first place, and the "win" (defensive stop) would have been a win whether we took the ball first or deferred, the only difference being that we gave up our chance to win the game outright with a TD and handed that ability to our opponent, which is an inexcusable error, even if it did not bite us right away this time.

[Craic]

Okay, so back the original reason for the thread:

GameBalls: Despite this being a loss, there are definite game balls to be handed out.



Hilton. I can't tell you how many times I saw him making plays today. It seems whatever funk he was in is over. The playmaker of the first year is coming back.
Watt. Made a couple of good plays and was in the backfield often disrupting things.
DBs as a group. The CBs and Safeties really seem to have grown together. More than once during the game, I found myself excited when the opposing QB was putting the ball in the air because I felt it possible we may get an INT.
All coaching but STs. The defense made changes in game and shut down the Ravens. Part of that might have been their loss of their receiver, but too often we've seen other receivers come in and torch us. The OC gets a ball as well. Okay, there was a bad throw on the wildcat, but in theory, it was a very good play. We've ran it consistently but never threw from it. I liked the call. I hated the execution. More importantly, we scored points and were in a position to win the game with our 3rd string backup. Well done. Tomlin. Well, no reason to go into that with all that's been said here.


Goats:

JuJu. It was a good play. A great play, in fact. But the problem is one that we have seen before with the Steelers. The WRs are too aggressive fighting for yards. If you have the first down and you're not in a place where the clock is important so you're not trying to get out of bounds, go to the turf rather than fight for yards. Many marvel at the Pats* turnover record. Well, that's a big reason why. You seldom see their WRs fighting for YACs. They catch the ball, and if someone is on them, they go down.
STs (Coach). This one is a bit tough because a large part of the issue was brilliant kicking on the Raven's side. However, we allowed at least one long return and had penalties on our returns. Enough's enough.

[steelreserve]

Precisely what mathematic formula would you have conjured up in your head, on the sideline in 60 seconds to guarantee victory?

"Take the fucking ball."

[tube517]

Hilton. I can't tell you how many times I saw him making plays today. It seems whatever funk he was in is over. The playmaker of the first year is coming back.


I don't think he was 100% healthy last year. He looks better this year and the rotation with Cam Sutton seems to be doing well.

This defense deserves to have a better record. 5 sacks and 3 TO's today.

[Craic]

"Take the fucking ball."

:huh: That's math? Must be that new math I keep hearing about.

[Mojouw]

Lot of assumptions there. We maybe gained 15 yards of field position, or maybe not. Look at the box score, there was ONE time when we got the ball on the 15 because of a well-placed kick by Tucker. One time. One other kickoff we were backed up because of a holding penalty, but the return was to the 26. The rest were all touchbacks. So we took a HUGE risk to maybe gain 7 yards of field position, given the actual history of the kickoffs in the game and not the emotional anecdotal history of one play.

Then - since the whole notion of "winning" the gamble is based on the assumption that the defense was going to get a stop ... well, they had to get a three-and-out either way. (if we defer and allow a first down or two - no field position gain anyway). It's kind of like those clowns who think it's a good decision to kick the ball away instead of do an onside kick with 2 minutes left. "Oh no, if we don't make recover, they have the ball on the 40!" Well guess what moron, the result is exactly the same either way: Allow one first down and you're screwed.

Basically, the whole decision was based on an assumption about field position that wasn't true in the first place, and the "win" (defensive stop) would have been a win whether we took the ball first or deferred, the only difference being that we gave up our chance to win the game outright with a TD and handed that ability to our opponent, which is an inexcusable error, even if it did not bite us right away this time.

You do realize that the ONLY time Tucker didn’t try and put the ball into or through the end zone was the pop-up kick that put them at their 11?

Since you have a deep and masterful command of the probabilities of the universe that the rest of us can only hope to fathom, want to take a crack at what Tucker’s odds of replicating that feat?

Based on your early random assertions about 1-6 or 1-12 being the odds Tomlin was staring down, if you think that Tucker can make that pop-up kick settle in Switzers hands around the 5 more than 1-5 times, then aren’t the odds even at worst?

[The Bark]

Tomlin for not calling timeout after the completion in bounds after the interception before the half. We may have scored a TD instead of a Fied Goal there had he called timeout.


This. In the end, they only ran one more play and went into halftime without having used the time out. Another WTF clock management moment from Tomlin.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

This. In the end, they only ran one more play and went into halftime without having used the time out. Another WTF clock management moment from Tomlin. Yep was very stupid on Tomlin. Saved the TO to long when it didn't matter.

[teegre]

I buy that there is no way he wanted our KO return team out there. They were shit all day. Smart decision. Defense had been heating up since the half. Damn bad luck. Ravens are not a good team and we are worse.

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

Absolutely!!!

Starting position on the three kickoffs that were returned:

11 yard line
12 yard line
15 yard line

[smokin3000gt]

"Take the fucking ball."

https://media.giphy.com/media/BmmfETghGOPrW/giphy.gif

https://imgur.com/gallery/CXjWBpW

Personally, I speculate that Hodges would have not only gone 3 and out against a fired up Raven's defense, but would have also likely lost yardage. Then after a shitty kick into the wind, and great field position for the Raisins, we'd be one Jackson run away from a game losing FG. I also don't think Tomlin expected the ball the to get punched out of JuJu's hands.

[steelreserve]

You do realize that the ONLY time Tucker didn’t try and put the ball into or through the end zone was the pop-up kick that put them at their 11?

Since you have a deep and masterful command of the probabilities of the universe that the rest of us can only hope to fathom, want to take a crack at what Tucker’s odds of replicating that feat?

Based on your early random assertions about 1-6 or 1-12 being the odds Tomlin was staring down, if you think that Tucker can make that pop-up kick settle in Switzers hands around the 5 more than 1-5 times, then aren’t the odds even at worst?

To be honest, I doubt Tucker does anything other than try to boot the ball out the back of the end zone to start overtime. Teams are not known for trying to be cute with stuff like that in overtime if a mistake means losing the game.

But let's say he has a 4 in 5 chance of pinning us back inside the 15. That doesn't really matter, because most of the outcomes that follow that are STILL the same or better than if we had deferred, because of all those other what-ifs that are out there. They ALL have to go the way I said to make deferring the smart choice; only one has to go our way to make receiving favorable.

Of course, what usually happens is that one team making a good play or the other team making a mistake is what decides the game, and that is exactly what happened, but we are just talking about maximizing your odds.

What it boils down to is, maybe we were scared of our own offense, but guess what, it's overtime and you don't get a choice. You 99% HAVE to win it by making some plays on offense - you cannot "hide" your offense in that situation, you have to take your shot, like it or not.

And the big thing, really the biggest one that dwarfs everything else, is in a sudden-death situation, you do not want to be on the short end of the number of possessions. But that's exactly where you put yourself when you defer. The best you can do is break even, and that's just stupid.

[Mojouw]

I think you just out argued yourself

Even if we assume the Steelers get the 25. That's still 7 less yards of field position.

While it may only be a marginal improvement, it is still more than breaking even.

[DesertSteel]

You are wrong on this one. I don't know how else anyone can lay it out.

The Steelers start after kicks was something like the 10 yard line. Instead they got it at their own 32.

He also is excellent at doing that pop-up kick that forces you to field it between the 5 and the 10.

In what world is it a good idea to give your UDFA rookie 3rd string QB the ball at roughly the 15 or so and be like, "Good Luck".
Yeah why is it even being talked about in a goat thread. The decision worked perfectly if Juju doesn't fumble. Get in FG range and Boz wins the game.

- - - Updated - - -



I tend to have all the answers
It's a fascinating world you have in your mind.

[Mojouw]

This. In the end, they only ran one more play and went into halftime without having used the time out. Another WTF clock management moment from Tomlin.

It seems pretty clear through 2 games now that Rudolph himself or the coaches are putting him on a tight leash inside either 20. Playcslling gets really conservative and risk averse.

[steelreserve]

I think you just out argued yourself

Even if we assume the Steelers get the 25. That's still 7 less yards of field position.

While it may only be a marginal improvement, it is still more than breaking even.

... and completely not worth the enormous risk that came with it.

And also no guarantee that the 32 would be better than whatever we ended up with after - as we are assuming - we had a possession, eventually punted and the defense came up with a three-and-out on the Ravens' first possession.

That's the problem with the entire defense of Tomlin here. It assumes failure at every turn as the justification for what he decided. It assumes we would get NO yards on offense, that we would have NO chance at scoring on the first possession, that we would get the WORST possible field position, and that the only constant is the defense will get a stop with absolutely zero risk of losing the game.

How about this - look at what the field position would have been if the possessions were reversed. The Steelers received the kick and would have started with the ball on the 15, as seems to be the hot take here. Instead of the back-breaking fumble, (which you have to ignore for this purpose because obviously that simply ended the game, which renders both sides of the argument moot) ... pretend that we are only talking field position. Juju got tackled, the drive ended there and we punted, and then our defense stopped them. Well, we gained about 15 yards on the drive, and we should've gotten the ball back around our own 30 anyway, unless you want to make other assumptions about them out-kicking us by a wide margin.

There was NO net benefit to us, unless you make a whole series of self-defeating assumptions, which if true would mean there was basically no way to win the game anyway. And don't forget the absolutely HUGE advantage that the rules give the team with the first possession, which you just handed away for free.

[Mojouw]

... and completely not worth the enormous risk that came with it.

And also no guarantee that the 32 would be better than whatever we ended up with after - as we are assuming - we had a possession, eventually punted and the defense came up with a three-and-out on the Ravens' first possession.

That's the problem with the entire defense of Tomlin here. It assumes failure at every turn as the justification for what he decided. It assumes we would get NO yards on offense, that we would have NO chance at scoring on the first possession, that we would get the WORST possible field position, and that the only constant is the defense will get a stop with absolutely zero risk of losing the game.

How about this - look at what the field position would have been if the possessions were reversed. The Steelers received the kick and would have started with the ball on the 15, as seems to be the hot take here. Instead of the back-breaking fumble, (which you have to ignore for this purpose because obviously that simply ended the game, which renders both sides of the argument moot) ... pretend that we are only talking field position. Juju got tackled, the drive ended there and we punted, and then our defense stopped them. Well, we gained about 15 yards on the drive, and we should've gotten the ball back around our own 30 anyway, unless you want to make other assumptions about them out-kicking us by a wide margin.

There was NO net benefit to us, unless you make a whole series of self-defeating assumptions, which if true would mean there was basically no way to win the game anyway. And don't forget the absolutely HUGE advantage that the rules give the team with the first possession, which you just handed away for free.

Whatever. At this point your ranting about assumptions using assumptions. But since they are ones you agree with they are apparently facts.

I have no idea why you are digging your heels in on this. I suspect it is to convince yourself and others how smart you are? I don't know.

Was Tomlins decision the highest percentage call? No idea. Based on what had previously happened and was happening in the game, was it the right call? Absolutely.

Personally, I would've defended the call if the Ravens scored an opening drive TD.

Everyone posts about how they pine for old school football and the return of St. Cowher. Well that was about the most old school Cowher move ever. Put your defense on the field and tell them to put you in position to win the game.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

Whatever. At this point your ranting about assumptions using assumptions. But since they are ones you agree with they are apparently facts.

I have no idea why you are digging your heels in on this. I suspect it is to convince yourself and others how smart you are? I don't know.

Was Tomlins decision the highest percentage call? No idea. Based on what had previously happened and was happening in the game, was it the right call? Absolutely.

Personally, I would've defended the call if the Ravens scored an opening drive TD.

Everyone posts about how they pine for old school football and the return of St. Cowher. Well that was about the most old school Cowher move ever. Put your defense on the field and tell them to put you in position to win the game. Personally would not have kick other then the D was fired up and playing great. Proved to be the right call and cause of that.

[steelreserve]

Whatever. At this point your ranting about assumptions using assumptions. But since they are ones you agree with they are apparently facts.

I have no idea why you are digging your heels in on this. I suspect it is to convince yourself and others how smart you are? I don't know.

Was Tomlins decision the highest percentage call? No idea. Based on what had previously happened and was happening in the game, was it the right call? Absolutely.

Personally, I would've defended the call if the Ravens scored an opening drive TD.

Everyone posts about how they pine for old school football and the return of St. Cowher. Well that was about the most old school Cowher move ever. Put your defense on the field and tell them to put you in position to win the game.

I don't know, man. Digging in your heels is more for things where there's no clear answer. This reads more like,

"Guys. 2 plus 2 is 4."

"I'm pretty sure 2 plus 2 is 6."

"No, it's definitely 4."

"You're digging in your heels!"

"Well, here's why it equals 4."

"YOU JUST THINK YOURE SO SMART DONT YOU"

Like, really, why is it such a difficult sell that the rules of overtime simply do not favor the team that kicks off.

That was not an old-school move, it was a needless gamble based on either bravado or self-defeatist fear, neither of which was very rational. I'm glad that isn't what ended up costing us the game, I guess.

[Crow-Magnon]

My $0.02.

The Steelers D was containing Jackson and getting pressure on him consistently. When they opted to kick off to the Ravens, my thought was "Oh crap. Three and out, punt and Pittsburgh will win this game on a FG". And had JuJu not fumbled, that is likely what would have happened.

I liked the call. Not because the Ravens won, but because it was the right call. Put your strength out on the field first.

[st33lersguy]

You never kick the ball in OT never. Plus, it's not like Hodges was playing poorly or anything. It was a 23-23 ballgame and somehow you should trust the defense in that situation? No

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Goat Who ever called the wildcat pass deep in our own end. You'll trust a RB over your QB? Seriously. A big WTF call

Sent from my moto x4 using Tapatalk

Agree, that was just about the worst call I can think of in a long time. Pete Carroll even thinks that's a dumb call.

[JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue]

My $0.02.

The Steelers D was containing Jackson and getting pressure on him consistently. When they opted to kick off to the Ravens, my thought was "Oh crap. Three and out, punt and Pittsburgh will win this game on a FG". And had JuJu not fumbled, that is likely what would have happened.

I liked the call. Not because the Ravens won, but because it was the right call. Put your strength out on the field first. Thanks my point and thought maybe even a TO and game would have end there.

[RunNGun]

Tomlin made the decision based on the flow of the game. The direction of the wind and field position were also major factors. He trusted the D to make a stop.

I think everyone can agree that the team that was going to win this game in OT was probably kicking a FG versus scoring a TD, so why not kick with the wind rather than deal with the swirling winds at the other end.

[smokin3000gt]

You never kick the ball in OT never. Plus, it's not like Hodges was playing poorly or anything. It was a 23-23 ballgame and somehow you should trust the defense in that situation? No

At that point, was Hodges more consistent or the defense? And it worked, we had the ball, all we had to do was kick a field goal which means it opened up the playbook for a 3rd string QB and took a lot of weight off having to get to the 35yd line instead of the endzone. There forced fumble was a great play that no one anticipated and it got us. Unfortunately, knowing everything after the fact doesn't help us much during game time.

- - - Updated - - -


Tomlin made the decision based on the flow of the game. The direction of the wind and field position were also major factors. He trusted the D to make a stop.

I think everyone can agree that the team that was going to win this game in OT was probably kicking a FG versus scoring a TD, so why not kick with the wind rather than deal with the swirling winds at the other end.

because MIKE TURRMLINN!!

[DesertSteel]

In a 1-4 season that's in the crapper, certain posters choose to criticize a decision that WORKED. :frusty:

[Craic]

Agree, that was just about the worst call I can think of in a long time. Pete Carroll even thinks that's a dumb call.

I don't know. IF you're going to run the wildcat offense, then at some point the team is going to stack the box and force you to run through everyone. I had no problem with the concept of throwing out of the wildcat. I don't even have a problem with them throwing in their own territory early out of the wildcat. If they complete it, it opens up lots of running lanes the next time.

What I do have a problem with is doing it that soon before assessing how the Ravens would react to the wildcat.

[steelreserve]

In a 1-4 season that's in the crapper, certain posters choose to criticize a decision that WORKED. :frusty:

Yeah, "worked" by getting us nothing at all. That's why it was a stupid decision. Even if it works, you are literally just back where you would have been anyway. And that's your BEST case.

[teegre]

I don't know. IF you're going to run the wildcat offense, then at some point the team is going to stack the box and force you to run through everyone. I had no problem with the concept of throwing out of the wildcat. I don't even have a problem with them throwing in their own territory early out of the wildcat. If they complete it, it opens up lots of running lanes the next time.

What I do have a problem with is doing it that soon before assessing how the Ravens would react to the wildcat.

Honestly, it would have worked... but, Washington was held on the play. It was a smart hold by the defense (because, Washington would have been open immediately). Instead, Samuels had to wait, and it suddenly became obvious to everyone that it was a passing play.

It should have been “holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, automatic first down”.

Almost the exact same thing happened a few plays later (Steelers defender held) and the Ravens got the call. It was the right call, and I’m assuming Tomlin gave them an earful about the previous botched call (in turn, alas, the refs then noticed it).

[teegre]

As far as JuJu’s fumble goes...

1. Marlon Humphries is really good. Excellent play by him.

2. Earlier in the game, Humphries tried the same thing, but missed... and it turned into a TD for JuJu. I’d say that if Humphries doesn’t pop that ball out, the game ends with a TD right there (Humphries wasn’t wrapping up).

3. People want to call JuJu fumble prone. He’s had two total in three seasons. Yes, both of them were game-killers, but JuJu is not “prone” to fumbling. By comparison, in their first three seasons, AB had 5 fumbles and Louis Lipps had something like 13 fumbles.

[DesertSteel]

Yeah, "worked" by getting us nothing at all. That's why it was a stupid decision. Even if it works, you are literally just back where you would have been anyway. And that's your BEST case.
It worked by getting them good field position and needing only a FG to win. What part of Juju’s fumble was related to that decision?? But you’ve already proven that you are unreasonable and know everything.

[AtlantaDan]

As far as JuJu’s fumble goes...

1. Marlon Humphries is really good. Excellent play by him.

2. Earlier in the game, Humphries tried the same thing, but missed... and it turned into a TD for JuJu. I’d say that if Humphries doesn’t pop that ball out, the game ends with a TD right there (Humphries wasn’t wrapping up).

3. People want to call JuJu fumble prone. He’s had two total in three seasons. Yes, both of them were game-killers, but JuJu is not “prone” to fumbling. By comparison, in their first three seasons, AB had 5 fumbles and Louis Lipps had something like 13 fumbles.

Don't confuse anyone with a rational argument. This is what we need to admit. :coffee:

1181189849799368706

[steelreserve]

It worked by getting them good field position and needing only a FG to win. What part of Juju’s fumble was related to that decision?? But you’ve already proven that you are unreasonable and know everything.

The fumble has nothing to do with it. Deferring got us nothing that we would not have had anyway given the same sequence of events. It was just a much riskier way of getting to the same place. It's almost as if you think chanting the wrong answer over and over makes it true, and that complaining about the manner in which the right answer is provided makes it incorrect. That must suck.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

My $0.02.



I liked the call. Not because the Ravens won, but because it was the right call. Put your strength out on the field first.

I agree. I was especially thinking that with the 3rd string QB in the game. Hopefully put your offense on a short field.

[Mojouw]

I don't know. IF you're going to run the wildcat offense, then at some point the team is going to stack the box and force you to run through everyone. I had no problem with the concept of throwing out of the wildcat. I don't even have a problem with them throwing in their own territory early out of the wildcat. If they complete it, it opens up lots of running lanes the next time.

What I do have a problem with is doing it that soon before assessing how the Ravens would react to the wildcat.

That play-call and the sequence at the end of the half represent something I wholeheartedly believe the coaching staff has to work their way out of. They are playing far too risk averse inside the 20's. Teams are recognizing that and the Ravens shifted their defense to reflect it.

At some point, they are going to have to start asking their QBs to make "big boy" plays deep in their own end or deep in the red zone.

Everyone is slamming Tomlin for the clock management at the end of the half. That was intentional. They had zero interest in throwing into the endzone from inside the 10. That is a really compacted area to pass into and infamous for young QBs throwing picks in that situation. All they wanted to do was preserve the field goal and take a few shots at outside pass plays were there was ZERO chance of an INT.

[Steeler-in-west]

Just Juju. With all the questionable play calling we probably still win if he doesn’t fumble. I’d shut myself in my home all week after that gaff

[steel striker]

I got to say I lost my mind when the called that BS High School wildcat play with Samuels throwing the INT come on MAN! Mason has showed he can play the QB position and, in college he put up record numbers by throwing the football Steelers seem to handcuff him. The very next drive he drove them down for a TD like it was nothing. STOP THE WILDCAT BS!!! JUJU has to hold on to the ball and, I know it was great play by the Raven defender. Then the BS roughing call that might have ended the game as well. Hodges looked pretty good made good decisions and, Boswell looks back to from as well. The shame of it the Steelers could have won the last three games but, 1-4 is the record. They had three picks of Jackson and, only have 6 points to show for it and, defense was good enough to get the win yesterday.

[DesertSteel]

The fumble has nothing to do with it. Deferring got us nothing that we would not have had anyway given the same sequence of events. It was just a much riskier way of getting to the same place. It's almost as if you think chanting the wrong answer over and over makes it true, and that complaining about the manner in which the right answer is provided makes it incorrect. That must suck.
That's rich.

[Rotorhead]

Are we really arguing about this? It was the wrong call always, playing from ahead in OT is ALWAYS better then trying to match FG for FG. Not to mention if the other team scored a TD it is game over without even a chance to win. Just look at the possible outcomes:
Taking the ball, 2 of the 3 outcomes are points, the other a punt. Kicking the ball, 1 option is lose by a TD, the other is they kick a FG and you now HAVE to match those pts or it is a loss, third is they Punt. There are more options to win taking the ball, and other than scoring a TD, the Def has to get a stop anyways.

[Fire Goodell]

I don't have a problem with deferring in this scenario. Jackson only passed for 160 yards and was intercepted 3 times. The defense started stopping their run game. The Ravens had NOTHING in the 2nd half. Sucks that we coughed up the ball already in Tucker FG range, honestly if not for the fumble this would have been a W.

We'll get them in game 2

[pczach]

I agree. I was especially thinking that with the 3rd string QB in the game. Hopefully put your offense on a short field.



Way too many people that never played the game want to look exclusively at numbers to make decisions, or convince themselves that those same numbers tell the whole story. There is a place for analytics, probability and statistics, and any number of analytical approaches in the game of football. I just think that too many people look only at numbers and don't understand the importance of being in a locker room or being on the sideline, watching the game up close, seeing the battle at the LOS unfold and really getting a feel for how the game is going, and actually looking players in the eye and determining what the mindset of the team is and who is willing to rise up to a challenge. That part of the game is lost to some people and they simply don't know what they don't know.

[steelreserve]

Way too many people that never played the game want to look exclusively at numbers to make decisions, or convince themselves that those same numbers tell the whole story. There is a place for analytics, probability and statistics, and any number of analytical approaches in the game of football. I just think that too many people look only at numbers and don't understand the importance of being in a locker room or being on the sideline, watching the game up close, seeing the battle at the LOS unfold and really getting a feel for how the game is going, and actually looking players in the eye and determining what the mindset of the team is and who is willing to rise up to a challenge. That part of the game is lost to some people and they simply don't know what they don't know.

How true. The place for the feel of the game and seeing it unfold up close is in playcalling, in decisions like going for it on fourth down, in who to put on the field.

Things like ... knowing the rules of overtime - yeah, that's actually ALL statistics and probability, sorry.

I also love how people will say "rah rah, defense was on FIRE, you gotta go with it and put it in their hands!" and then also completely ignore the fact that the defense has to get a stop either way.

Like ... if you are playing blackjack and you double down on 16, every once in a while you'll win, but that does not mean it was a smart bet. Or in this case it's more like, if you were to just spot the dealer a 21 at the start of the hand, once in a while you'll push, but why in the world would you even bet on that in the first place.

[GoSlash27]

SR,
I think you're :deadhorse:

Overtime *used* to be that simple, but it's not anymore. A team that defers doesn't have to make a stop, it simply has to answer. It's the receiving team that has to make a stop. There are a lot of valid reasons for not electing to receive. Field conditions, wind direction, field position, offense vs defense matchups, etc.

I get that you don't agree with the call, but it's immaterial. It did not affect the outcome of the game.

[steelreserve]

SR,
I think you're :deadhorse:

Overtime *used* to be that simple, but it's not anymore. A team that defers doesn't have to make a stop, it simply has to answer. It's the receiving team that has to make a stop. There are a lot of valid reasons for not electing to receive. Field conditions, wind direction, field position, offense vs defense matchups, etc.

I get that you don't agree with the call, but it's immaterial. It did not affect the outcome of the game.

One thing that's for sure, this is clearly going nowhere, so you know what, fuck it. Fuck all that bullshit and fuck the whole crappy series of events that led up to it, because seriously, the end of that game sucked a big fat dog dick.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Way too many people that never played the game want to look exclusively at numbers to make decisions, or convince themselves that those same numbers tell the whole story. There is a place for analytics, probability and statistics, and any number of analytical approaches in the game of football. I just think that too many people look only at numbers and don't understand the importance of being in a locker room or being on the sideline, watching the game up close, seeing the battle at the LOS unfold and really getting a feel for how the game is going, and actually looking players in the eye and determining what the mindset of the team is and who is willing to rise up to a challenge. That part of the game is lost to some people and they simply don't know what they don't know.

Yeah, I was thinking during the coin toss that they take the closed end of the stadium and kick off to the Ravens (just as they did). Let the defense get a stop(which they were doing) and maybe get a short field where the O just needs 30 -40 yard gain to kick a FG. I didn't have confidence in the 3rd string QB to gain 60 yards in order to kick a FG. Neither did Tomlin I guess.

[pczach]

How true. The place for the feel of the game and seeing it unfold up close is in playcalling, in decisions like going for it on fourth down, in who to put on the field.

Things like ... knowing the rules of overtime - yeah, that's actually ALL statistics and probability, sorry.

I also love how people will say "rah rah, defense was on FIRE, you gotta go with it and put it in their hands!" and then also completely ignore the fact that the defense has to get a stop either way.

Like ... if you are playing blackjack and you double down on 16, every once in a while you'll win, but that does not mean it was a smart bet. Or in this case it's more like, if you were to just spot the dealer a 21 at the start of the hand, once in a while you'll push, but why in the world would you even bet on that in the first place.


Look, if you want to go down with that ship...go right ahead.

You would normally be correct about taking the ball from a percentage standpoint. I would have been fine if Tomlin decided to go with taking the ball first. I trusted him in that situation.

You keep saying that it's about knowing the rules of overtime. Everyone knows the rules. it's knowing your team and the most current state of that team, and all the variables within the game.

When you are playing blackjack, there is no third string quarterback that you are doubling down on. The value of the cards isn't the same in every situation. In football, you aren't picking from a set of cards in unknown order. You are calculating the specifics of your personnel and how they are performing. You already know the value of the cards you are playing with, and you are putting them on the field. You couldn't pick a worse analogy.

What did your magic formula say was the percentage play before overtime started?

I can answer that. You had no idea. You didn't run any numbers yourself to figure anything out. To say otherwise is complete bullshit.

Here is an article that states that the winner of the coin toss in NFL overtime and receiving the kickoff wins 52.7 percent of the time at some point during overtime. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/22/coin-toss-would-remain-important-if-ot-rule-is-tweaked/

A 52.7 percent winning percentage is hardly a definitive play. There is no huge statistical advantage with that number. Sorry, but it is not.

I accept that there is a very small advantage play involved with the results. Probability and statistics say that there is a better chance to win the game if you win the toss and receive the kickoff. What it doesn't tell any of us is how many overtimes have involved an undrafted rookie, third-string, quarterback playing in his first regular season game ever......and what percentage of teams have won taking the ball first with that quarterback. If you don't think that the probability of victory changes with the quality of the quarterback playing, the strength of the offense playing, the strength of the defense playing, or any of a million other factors, you're only fooling yourself.

52.7 percent with almost always a starting quarterback....so it would certainly be lower with an undrafted rookie, third-string, first NFL action ever quarterback.

Do you agree with that or not?

[steelreserve]

Look, if you want to go down with that ship...go right ahead.

You would normally be correct about taking the ball from a percentage standpoint. I would have been fine if Tomlin decided to go with taking the ball first. I trusted him in that situation.

You keep saying that it's about knowing the rules of overtime. Everyone knows the rules. it's knowing your team and the most current state of that team, and all the variables within the game.

When you are playing blackjack, there is no third string quarterback that you are doubling down on. The value of the cards isn't the same in every situation. In football, you aren't picking from a set of cards in unknown order. You are calculating the specifics of your personnel and how they are performing. You already know the value of the cards you are playing with, and you are putting them on the field. You couldn't pick a worse analogy.

What did your magic formula say was the percentage play before overtime started?

I can answer that. You had no idea. You didn't run any numbers yourself to figure anything out. To say otherwise is complete bullshit.

Here is an article that states that the winner of the coin toss in NFL overtime and receiving the kickoff wins 52.7 percent of the time at some point during overtime. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/22/coin-toss-would-remain-important-if-ot-rule-is-tweaked/

A 52.7 percent winning percentage is hardly a definitive play. There is no huge statistical advantage with that number. Sorry, but it is not.

I accept that there is a very small advantage play involved with the results. Probability and statistics say that there is a better chance to win the game if you win the toss and receive the kickoff. What it doesn't tell any of us is how many overtimes have involved an undrafted rookie, third-string, quarterback playing in his first regular season game ever......and what percentage of teams have won taking the ball first with that quarterback. If you don't think that the probability of victory changes with the quality of the quarterback playing, the strength of the offense playing, the strength of the defense playing, or any of a million other factors, you're only fooling yourself.

52.7 percent with almost always a starting quarterback....so it would certainly be lower with an undrafted rookie, third-string, first NFL action ever quarterback.

Do you agree with that or not?

No, I don't, and here's why: The fact that we had a backup QB hurt our chances of winning, but it did not change the correct play to maximize your chances.

Maybe we had a 42.7 percent chance of winning thanks to having a backup QB if we received, and a 37.3 percent chance of winning if we kicked. It is just a negative modifier on everything. Like, to use blackjack again, if the dealer is showing a 10, your best play is still the same whether your hand is a 12 or a 16, you just have better odds with the 12.

However, you could also argue that Baltimore's bad offensive play made up for a lot of our own disadvantage from having a backup QB, putting us right back around that original 52.7 percent. In fact, that is exactly what people are arguing. So in that case, you would take the 52.7 percent, not the 47.3 percent.

Anyway, that is what the odds say.

No, I guess it is not a back-breaking disadvantage, and most games (19 out of 20 in fact) are going to be decided by other things, which is exactly what happened. But that is still a five and a half percent swing that I don't think there was any good reason to throw away.

[RunNGun]

Are we really arguing about this? It was the wrong call always, playing from ahead in OT is ALWAYS better then trying to match FG for FG. Not to mention if the other team scored a TD it is game over without even a chance to win. Just look at the possible outcomes:
Taking the ball, 2 of the 3 outcomes are points, the other a punt. Kicking the ball, 1 option is lose by a TD, the other is they kick a FG and you now HAVE to match those pts or it is a loss, third is they Punt. There are more options to win taking the ball, and other than scoring a TD, the Def has to get a stop anyways.

Field position, flow of the game, and the wind. It's as simple as that. It was a bold move and the right move. Tomlin could make that call in that exact same scenario 100 times and I wouldn't question it. If you don't see it like that...even after all the explaining people have done on here...then I'm questioning your football knowledge.

It was 100% the right call and if you disagree you are 100% wrong to be blunt about it.

[Hawkman]

Field position, flow of the game, and the wind. It's as simple as that. It was a bold move and the right move. Tomlin could make that call in that exact same scenario 100 times and I wouldn't question it. If you don't see it like that...even after all the explaining people have done on here...then I'm questioning your football knowledge.

It was 100% the right call and if you disagree you are 100% wrong to be blunt about it.

What a bitch fest this is. I had no chance of see the game yesterday, but from what I’ve read, Tomlin made a gutsy call....and I like it. Bitchers are going to bitch, no matter who is the coach......right fellas.

[GoSlash27]

What a bitch fest this is. I had no chance of see the game yesterday, but from what I’ve read, Tomlin made a gutsy call....and I like it. Bitchers are going to bitch, no matter who is the coach......right fellas.

The part I find amusing is that among the myriad events that actually did influence the outcome of this game, we have chosen to focus on the one that didn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAA1xgTTw9w

[pczach]

No, I don't, and here's why: The fact that we had a backup QB hurt our chances of winning, but it did not change the correct play to maximize your chances.

Maybe we had a 42.7 percent chance of winning thanks to having a backup QB if we received, and a 37.3 percent chance of winning if we kicked. It is just a negative modifier on everything. Like, to use blackjack again, if the dealer is showing a 10, your best play is still the same whether your hand is a 12 or a 16, you just have better odds with the 12.

However, you could also argue that Baltimore's bad offensive play made up for a lot of our own disadvantage from having a backup QB, putting us right back around that original 52.7 percent. In fact, that is exactly what people are arguing. So in that case, you would take the 52.7 percent, not the 47.3 percent.

Anyway, that is what the odds say.

No, I guess it is not a back-breaking disadvantage, and most games (19 out of 20 in fact) are going to be decided by other things, which is exactly what happened. But that is still a five and a half percent swing that I don't think there was any good reason to throw away.


I get it. You believe in the numbers. I still contend that those numbers can't be quantified accurately because there are too many variables involving humans.

I admire your resolve. I am tired of going round and round on this.

Good talk...but you're still wrong!:flap:

[teegre]

2 male rabbits plus 2 female rabbits does not equal 4 rabbits total.

[stillers4me]

1181744082479022080

[teegre]

1181744082479022080


BINGO!!!

As I posted earlier in this thread:

Earlier in the game, Humphries tried the same thing, but missed... and it turned into a TD for JuJu. I’d say that if Humphries doesn’t pop that ball out, the game ends with a TD right there (Humphries wasn’t wrapping up).

[Craic]

No, I don't, and here's why: The fact that we had a backup QB hurt our chances of winning, but it did not change the correct play to maximize your chances.

Maybe we had a 42.7 percent chance of winning thanks to having a backup QB if we received, and a 37.3 percent chance of winning if we kicked. It is just a negative modifier on everything. Like, to use blackjack again, if the dealer is showing a 10, your best play is still the same whether your hand is a 12 or a 16, you just have better odds with the 12.

However, you could also argue that Baltimore's bad offensive play made up for a lot of our own disadvantage from having a backup QB, putting us right back around that original 52.7 percent. In fact, that is exactly what people are arguing. So in that case, you would take the 52.7 percent, not the 47.3 percent.

Anyway, that is what the odds say.

No, I guess it is not a back-breaking disadvantage, and most games (19 out of 20 in fact) are going to be decided by other things, which is exactly what happened. But that is still a five and a half percent swing that I don't think there was any good reason to throw away.

All of your arguing and logic keeps ignoring one major point. Dice, and cards, have no memory. There is nothing that can happen short of cheating to change chance. And, you're arguing chance. On the other hand, coaches do everything they can to minimize chance. That's a gulf between cards and football that makes any comparison a fallacy.