PDA

View Full Version : Odds of making playoffs after 0-3 start: Not too good (1 percent?) - Now what?



steelreserve
09-22-2019, 10:30 PM
Texans somehow pulled it off last year, but before the last team was ... the 1998 Bills. I accidentally typed "Bulls" at first, but guess what, Michael Jordan was still playing for them back then.

www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/texans-are-6th-team-since-1980-in-playoffs-after-0-3-start-122618

Your odds go from 10 percent at 0-2 to about 2 percent at 0-3, and considering all but one of them were 20+ years ago, our odds are more like 0.5 percent. The season is over before it started.

So - what do you do now? As a coach/GM, what do you use the next 13 games for? As a fan ... well, I guess that's a bit easier, I probably will not be in an all-fired rush to go see any games if I can see the replay in fast-forward later.

Really sucks, takes a lot of the excitement out of the typical Sunday for the next several weeks.

"Steelers fans are so spoiled, we could be the Browns!" Guess what, for the next 3 months, we ARE the Browns. Or 11 months, depending on how you look at it.

Shoes
09-22-2019, 10:40 PM
What do you do as an owner? Got to wonder who does AJRII have to discuss issues with when the GM and coaches are involved? Dan Rooney had a football mind, not so sure about Art.

Steeldude
09-22-2019, 10:42 PM
Statistics are so negative. Let's ignore them and say everything is great.

Fire Goodell
09-22-2019, 10:46 PM
I just hope the Steelers can win a game lol

Edman
09-22-2019, 10:47 PM
There is no “now what”. We have what is there.

A lost team coming off a brutal stretch of opponents and missing their starting QB. Blown out in one of the games, and lost two close ones.

The Patriots, Seahawks and 49ers are a collective 8-1.

All the Steelers can hope to do now is buckle down and play it out, and hope for the best. There is no more flux or first game jitters or west coast trips to do. The team has to find out who they are.

Born2Steel
09-22-2019, 10:53 PM
Stats are stats and whatever they mean is fine. I am disappointed with this start but look at it this way. On the road at Pats.(SB Champs) 0-1. Could have beaten the Seahawks. They are a good team. Playoff team just last season.(0-2).
Lost a frustrating game at 49ers. Played good defense mostly against one of the better offenses. Wish we could have taken advantage of those turnovers. Offense was ineffective again.(0-3) As I see it only 1 is really a bad loss and that was on the road. AGAIN it was a bad loss on the road. NO EXCUSES it was a bad loss. Should be 1-2 right now. With just a little luck could be 2-1. The Steelers will get this going.

Steeler-in-west
09-22-2019, 11:14 PM
Just take it game by game. Try to start to start winning games. Rudolph’s chance to get as much experience as possible unless he starts to just really play badly- then throw Hodges in there to see what he can do.

No one should be given a pass though, coordinators or Tomlin. If this team ends up around 4-12 the whole coaching staff should be overhauled- at least I hope so.

Fire Goodell
09-22-2019, 11:38 PM
All I gotta say is if we can't beat the Bengals, then we bad

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 12:10 AM
"Now what" ?

We're not in control, we're just along for the ride. We can therefore either suck it up or hop off the bandwagon. I've been through this before, so it's not that big a deal for me.

Mojouw
09-23-2019, 12:24 AM
"Now what" ?

We're not in control, we're just along for the ride. We can therefore either suck it up or hop off the bandwagon. I've been through this before, so it's not that big a deal for me.

Too true.

I loved watching this team when they stunk and we're out of it more often than not during the Malone-Brister years.

Worst case they stunk this year. Heads role. Enter 2020 with a new staff. Or no heads roll and we have to hope progress is made so that 2020-21 are a two year window.

Either way, Ill enjoy watching and talking about it.

steelreserve
09-23-2019, 12:35 AM
"Now what" ?

We're not in control, we're just along for the ride. We can therefore either suck it up or hop off the bandwagon. I've been through this before, so it's not that big a deal for me.

Hence the other part of it, what should the coach or GM or owner be using the next 3 months for ...

Steeler-in-west
09-23-2019, 12:42 AM
Only thing I got out of watching the Steelers in the 80’s was that one thrilling playoff game against the oilers in 89 and watching the greats from the 70’s dynasty retire, one by one, until they were down to just Dwayne Woodruff.

The sadder part of it this time is we’re moving on from a team that underachieved the last ten years.

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 12:54 AM
Hence the other part of it, what should the coach or GM or owner be using the next 3 months for ...

Hell, man... I'm a *fan*. Why ask me what the people in charge "should" be doing? I have no authority over them. My job is to wave a towel and drink beer.

Here's a better question: You say the odds of making the playoffs is 1% after an 0-3 start. Fair enough, sounds legit.... but what are the odds if you're 0-3 and your division is collectively 3-9?

steelreserve
09-23-2019, 01:44 AM
Hell, man... I'm a *fan*. Why ask me what the people in charge "should" be doing? I have no authority over them. My job is to wave a towel and drink beer.

Here's a better question: You say the odds of making the playoffs is 1% after an 0-3 start. Fair enough, sounds legit.... but what are the odds if you're 0-3 and your division is collectively 3-9?

Since we account for 3 of that 9 ourselves, probably not great ... Basically, what are the odds we beat the Ravens twice and tie them at everything else?

Call each game 50-50, and doing as well or better than them in the rest a 50-50 affair, and that's still a 1 in 8 chance, not great, but better than 1%, I suppose.

I guess at this point we can still hope for a couple more games that we're about to uncover some huge spark that we don't know about. On the other hand, we are 0-3 for a reason, I imagine like most of the other 0-3 teams that didn't make it.

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 06:32 AM
I guess at this point we can still hope for a couple more games that we're about to uncover some huge spark that we don't know about. On the other hand, we are 0-3 for a reason, I imagine like most of the other 0-3 teams that didn't make it.

Well, no. There's no particular reason we're 0-3 right now. We could just as easily be 2-1 and tied for first. We got snakebit and lost some key players. On the flip- side, we got 5 turnovers in the last game, picked up a play maker at safety, and our QB progressed nicely over the course of his first start. There is reason to hope, but even if we do wind up sucking... so what? It's not the end of the world.

teegre
09-23-2019, 06:43 AM
Here are some things to consider:

-We lost to the Taperiots. Most here had that as a loss. Ergo, that loss really shouldn’t change most people’s outlook.

-The two other losses were to NFC teams. If you have to lose, lose to the other conference.

-The AFC North looks awful. The division being 3-9 means that the division is by no means out of reach. Just ask the Seahawks in 2010 (they even had an upset win in the playoffs).

SUMMATION:
Stats... okay.

AtlantaDan
09-23-2019, 07:23 AM
Hence the other part of it, what should the coach or GM or owner be using the next 3 months for ...

Certainly not to focus on a playoff run - I cannot recall a season since the post-1984 Noll years where the season has so clearly become a lost cause so early (I did not give up on the 2006 team until late October)

Evaluate the young impact players on offense and defense - Moncrief only sees the field again if someone is injured while Bush along with the young WRs gets max reps and the Steelers decide whether Conner is a nice story but not the answer at RB. Hope Rudolph stays healthy so you get a chance to see what he can do over almost a full season

Assess whether the DL (which was getting gashed in the second half of both the Seahawks and Niners games) and OL (which has been unable to generate a running game and has OTs that were overwhelmed on pass protection yesterday) have some players to which age is catching up and what to do about trying to bring Hargrave back

Decide whether the constant promotion of coaching insiders to higher positions (both coordinators, OL coach) needs to change and whether both coordinators show enough to justify returning. If the offense is bad enough to justify canning Fichtner that probably means Rudolph has not produced at the level of a future long term starter, which then triggers the question of whether Ben will be willing to adjust to a new coordinator and offensive system

Get a commitment from Colbert if he is coming back and if the plan is to replace Colbert internally get that locked down now

tube517
09-23-2019, 07:36 AM
Certainly not to focus on a playoff run - I cannot recall a season since the post-1984 Noll years where the season has so clearly become a lost cause so early (I did not give up on the 2006 team until late October)

Evaluate the young impact players on offense and defense - Moncrief only sees the field again if someone is injured while Bush along with the young WRs gets max reps and the Steelers decide whether Conner is a nice story but not the answer at RB. Hope Rudolph stays healthy so you get a chance to see what he can do over almost a full season

Assess whether the DL (which was getting gashed in the second half of both the Seahawks and Niners games) and OL (which has been unable to generate a running game and has OTs that were overwhelmed on pass protection yesterday) have some players to which age is catching up and what to do about trying to bring Hargrave back

Decide whether the constant promotion of coaching insiders to higher positions (both coordinators, OL coach) needs to change and whether both coordinators show enough to justify returning. If the offense is bad enough to justify canning Fichtner that probably means Rudolph has not produced at the level of a future long term starter, which then triggers the question of whether Ben will be willing to adjust to a new coordinator and offensive system

Get a commitment from Colbert if he is coming back and if the plan is to replace Colbert internally get that locked down now

This has a 2013 feel to it because of the stagnant running game/sputtering offense. But, the 2 recent games were closer than in 2013. We had no chance in those 4 games we were that awful.

Ezra Tank
09-23-2019, 07:36 AM
During the game yesterday they mentioned teams with -4 turnover ratio were like 0-45-1. Well San Fran now makes that stat 1-45-1.

How do you have 5 turnovers and lose? The defense that played so well in the first half absolutely sucked in the second half. What will it take to get Tomlin and his crew shown the door 1-15, 2-14? I'm so sick of hearing about this winning record. Now that Ben is all but gone we are unfortunately going to see how "great" Tomlin is.

AtlantaDan
09-23-2019, 07:48 AM
During the game yesterday they mentioned teams with -4 turnover ratio were like 0-45-1. Well San Fran now makes that stat 1-45-1.

Thanks to Conner’s late fumble the Steelers made a late charge to close the turnover differential to 3 (5-2). Losing when you have three fewer turnovers is still a neat trick but not unprecedented - so the Steelers are bad but not uniquely awful - good times :thumbsup:

This marked just the fourth time (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&year_min=2018&year_max=2019&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&temperature_gtlt=lt&game_result=L&c1stat=turnover_diff&c1comp=gte&c1val=3&c5val=1.0&order_by=game_date) since the start of last season that a team has lost despite winning the turnover battle by a margin of three or more.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2854844-the-pittsburgh-steelers-are-in-big-trouble

As this article linked above notes, do not look for a big splash in free agency in 2020 to solve problems

Spotrac (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2020/) currently projects them to enter the 2020 offseason with just $3.8 million in salary-cap space

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2020/

AtlantaDan
09-23-2019, 07:58 AM
This has a 2013 feel to it because of the stagnant running game/sputtering offense. But, the 2 recent games were closer than in 2013. We had no chance in those 4 games we were that awful.

True - after 0-4 I though that season was toast after week 4 even though they would have made the playoffs if the Chiefs kicker had not gagged on a makeable field goal at the end of regulation in week 17 against the Chargers

After seeing this team in person last week and hearing Ben was done for the season while waiting to board my flight home last Monday I bailed on any playoff hopes in week 2 this year

tube517
09-23-2019, 07:59 AM
True - after 0-4 I though that season was toast after week 4 even though they would have made the playoffs if the Chiefs kicker had not gagged on a makeable field goal at the end of regulation in week 17 against the Chargers

After seeing this team in person last week and hearing Ben was done for the season while waiting to board my flight home last Monday I bailed on any playoff hopes in week 2 this year

I agree. I'm not expecting playoffs at all. I do expect a win vs the Bungles. :thumbsup:

86WARD
09-23-2019, 08:06 AM
Too true.

I loved watching this team when they stunk and we're out of it more often than not during the Malone-Brister years.

Worst case they stunk this year. Heads role. Enter 2020 with a new staff. Or no heads roll and we have to hope progress is made so that 2020-21 are a two year window.

Either way, Ill enjoy watching and talking about it.

Perfect. I may be a little more miserable than usual with the losses but eventually, it will become the norm...lol

tube517
09-23-2019, 08:11 AM
Too true.

I loved watching this team when they stunk and we're out of it more often than not during the Malone-Brister years.

Worst case they stunk this year. Heads role. Enter 2020 with a new staff. Or no heads roll and we have to hope progress is made so that 2020-21 are a two year window.

Either way, Ill enjoy watching and talking about it.

Hell, even Malone and Brister took us to the playoffs and won in the playoffs. We are spoiled!!!! :lol:

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 09:55 AM
During the game yesterday they mentioned teams with -4 turnover ratio were like 0-45-1. Well San Fran now makes that stat 1-45-1.

How do you have 5 turnovers and lose?
IIRC it was a +3 turnover ratio. And a team will still lose if they dominate turnovers but can't move the ball.

The defense that played so well in the first half absolutely sucked in the second half.
Naturally. If you can't establish drives, your defense is bound to get gassed. What was our time of possession, like 24 minutes?

I'd expect that our first half offense next week to look more like our second half offense yesterday. If that comes to pass, our defense won't be dog- tired by the 4th quarter.

Mojouw
09-23-2019, 10:30 AM
IIRC it was a +3 turnover ratio. And a team will still lose if they dominate turnovers but can't move the ball.

Naturally. If you can't establish drives, your defense is bound to get gassed. What was our time of possession, like 24 minutes?

I'd expect that our first half offense next week to look more like our second half offense yesterday. If that comes to pass, our defense won't be dog- tired by the 4th quarter.

I read somewhere that most Steelers "drives" were like 1:50 seconds or something. Offense did little to help the defense. Been a consistent pattern all season. Honestly, the past two weeks the defense has been good enough to win.

steelreserve
09-23-2019, 10:58 AM
Here are some things to consider:

-We lost to the Taperiots. Most here had that as a loss. Ergo, that loss really shouldn’t change most people’s outlook.

-The two other losses were to NFC teams. If you have to lose, lose to the other conference.

-The AFC North looks awful. The division being 3-9 means that the division is by no means out of reach. Just ask the Seahawks in 2010 (they even had an upset win in the playoffs).

SUMMATION:
Stats... okay.

I would be willing to bet thay a lot of those other 0-3 teams could've been 2-1 if things had gone just so. But they didn't for them, and they didn't for us either.

The reason an 0-3 start is so devastating to your playoff hopes IS strictly because of stats. It has the same effect as an 0-15 start in the NBA or an 0-30 start in MLB. Could Jordan's Bulls come back from 0-15 to make the playoffs? Probably. Do we look like Jordan's Bulls? Not so much.

Even if it really is just bad luck, it's very difficult to come back from that over the small number of games in an NFL season.


Hell, even Malone and Brister took us to the playoffs and won in the playoffs. We are spoiled!!!! :lol:

I did find a lot of the '80s and '90s teams to be very entertaining. Fun to watch, and no expectations, so any success was a bonus. Walter Abercrombie was such an eyesore, though - I mean, what a piece of shit. Some of the secondary players also looked like they might have a home on today's defense.

I think Dan is right on the money about what we ought to be doing ... no doubt we will be desperately trying everything to win the next few games regardless, but IMO the three biggest things to sort out are:

1. Which of the WRs can play;

2. Who is going to be the RB going forward if this is the Conner we can expect (should we just run Snell out there and eat the likely shit sandwich, on the 20% chance it's not shit?);

3. Who can play the other safety. We have a bunch of guys including Sutton and Haden who we talk about trying there but never do. Well, if there was ever a time to try, this is it. Instead, it seems like we will keep running Edmunds out there and hoping he suddenly gets it one day, which is the equivalent of mashing X in a fighting game when you are getting your ass kicked and hoping that somehow turns things around. Yeah yeah, I know, omg the fans are ready to declare anybody a bust after one bad game, fire Tomlin, trade Ben, fire everybody, sky is falling, etc., etc. - but HOLY SHIT, am I tired of seeing guys who just look clueless out there.

Rotorhead
09-23-2019, 11:02 AM
Maybe we should focus on just the next game, looking 13 weeks ahead is ridiculous, even if we were 3-0. We should have won that last game, but we didn’t. The good thing is we are only 2 games back in our Div after having played no div games. Our def showed up and played well until they were obviously gassed. Boz is making FGs. Our offense started making plays when it mattered (and when they finally took the cuffs off Rudolph) and we had that game won (with a key def stop I might add) until Conner fumbled it away. Next week we have a very winnable division game. We, as a team, need to focus on the division and improving on our positives, and work on shoring up our weaknesses.

If our coaches can get out of the way we could win a few. Hell, we have the personnel to shut done most of the Ravens offense, the Bungles are back as the Bungles and the Browns haven’t figured out how to win yet.

Born2Steel
09-23-2019, 12:22 PM
“Never tell me the odds.”

steelreserve
09-23-2019, 01:08 PM
“Never tell me the odds.”

When the Magic were down 3-0 to the Rockets in the NBA Finals, a reporter asked Shaq what he thought now that the series was basically over, and he looked straight at him and said, "It's never over."

They lost in 4 games, but still. Come on, it's Shaq.

DesertSteel
09-23-2019, 01:43 PM
It's not over till the fat lady sings!

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 02:18 PM
When the Magic were down 3-0 to the Rockets in the NBA Finals, a reporter asked Shaq what he thought now that the series was basically over, and he looked straight at him and said, "It's never over."

They lost in 4 games, but still. Come on, it's Shaq.

I have an idea: Rather than writing the season off, let's just go ahead and let them play; see what happens? Couldn't really hurt at this point ;)

steelreserve
09-23-2019, 03:12 PM
I have an idea: Rather than writing the season off, let's just go ahead and let them play; see what happens? Couldn't really hurt at this point ;)

What am I gonna do, refuse to let them play?

I'm just saying what I'm hoping for out of the rest of the season, knowing that the playoffs are only a very remote possibility. (And for that matter, that a high draft pick is a zero probability.)

Fire Goodell
09-23-2019, 03:20 PM
What am I gonna do, refuse to let them play?

I'm just saying what I'm hoping for out of the rest of the season, knowing that the playoffs are only a very remote possibility. (And for that matter, that a high draft pick is a zero probability.)

Well, we'd still get a high rd 2 pick which is similar in value to a high 1st rounder :chuckle: and we can cheer on the Titans and Jags to tank their seasons for better 4th and 5th round draft positions? :chuckle:

tube517
09-23-2019, 03:28 PM
Hey we still control our own destiny and are only 2 games behind the division leader! :chuckle:

86WARD
09-23-2019, 03:45 PM
Hey we still control our own destiny and are only 2 games behind the division leader! :chuckle:

https://youtu.be/zMRrNY0pxfM

GoSlash27
09-23-2019, 05:51 PM
What am I gonna do, refuse to let them play?

I'm just saying what I'm hoping for out of the rest of the season, knowing that the playoffs are only a very remote possibility. (And for that matter, that a high draft pick is a zero probability.)
Likewise. What I'm hoping for is that the Steelers right the ship and play at a level that allows for a respectable season. They have the talent and experience to pull it off. I feel no need to manage my expectations, since I'm capable of handling disappointment. If the Steelers wind up sucking this year, so be it. It'll still be entertaining either way. The part I dread is the 'panic brigade', who cannot manage their emotions and tend to fly off the handle every year.

Mojouw
09-23-2019, 06:00 PM
If the only enjoyable outcome is a superbowl victory, why even watch? I've never understood that take. It is what I hope for every year, but I do simply try and just enjoy it regardless -- don't always succeed. But it is a far better way to spend an afternoon than actual adult responsibilities.

Moose
09-23-2019, 06:10 PM
My thoughts right now....with the the records this team has had, with the talent this team has had, and now the start this team has......IF Dan was alive would Art and the rest of the crew still be around ? Just my thoughts, but I think the coaching has alot to do with these results and lack there of.

Six Rings
09-23-2019, 06:50 PM
What do you do as an owner? Got to wonder who does AJRII have to discuss issues with when the GM and coaches are involved? Dan Rooney had a football mind, not so sure about Art.

Art II isn't close to Dan. You can not fire a bad owner, and he's the ma who hires the head coach and GM.

- - - Updated - - -


It's not over till the fat lady sings!

If you want to look ate the glass half full, check our schedule. We play the rest of the AFC EAST, Arizona, and the Bengals and Browns 2x. This is 8 games vs some pretty bad football teams. Assuming we go 6-2-here we are that puts the team at 6-5 with five other games left. 9-7 isn't out of the question.

DesertSteel
09-23-2019, 07:43 PM
I'm trying to remain optimistic but honestly I'm starting to feel that this is going to be a loooonng season. More than anything else, I don't have confidence in this coaching staff.

Shoes
09-23-2019, 07:49 PM
I'm trying to remain optimistic but honestly I'm starting to feel that this is going to be a loooonng season. More than anything else, I don't have confidence in this coaching staff.

I don't either, just hoping the players can win in spite of them. :lol:

j-d-s
09-23-2019, 10:30 PM
Here's another stat: We still play 8 games against teams with losing records, plus the Bills and Colts at home.

If Tomlin finally lets Rudolph carry the team we certainly can win these games and split the series with the Ravens.

Our schedule is incredibly easy. The only two almost-certain losses are in my mind the Rams in week 10 and one of the Ravens games.

DesertSteel
09-23-2019, 11:49 PM
Statistics are so negative. Let's ignore them and say everything is great.
That's why you're here... to remind us all how bad they suck.

86WARD
09-24-2019, 04:51 AM
Here's another stat: We still play 8 games against teams with losing records, plus the Bills and Colts at home.

If Tomlin finally lets Rudolph carry the team we certainly can win these games and split the series with the Ravens.

Our schedule is incredibly easy. The only two almost-certain losses are in my mind the Rams in week 10 and one of the Ravens games.

The schedule has been incredibly easy with the exception of the Patriots and you could argue, talent for talent that the Steelers weren’t that far off from them...but the Steelers are 0-3...headed for 1-5...they have become one of the “easy teams” on the schedule...so to you, the schedule looks easy but in reality, it’s going to be very difficult.

@ Chargers and Cardinals are historically west coast losses.

Like I said at the beginning of the season, the ability to make the playoffs this season is going to come down to beating those west coast teams and winning those on the road. They’ve dropped two already and now have two more on the road...not promising with Tomlins history.

Bengals are no lock but they should win that game, if not, there’s no hope to win anything above 4 games max...

They’ll get slaughtered by the Ravens. They have no answer for Lamar Jackson or Mark Ingram.

Chargers on West Coast?

Maybe they win against Miami and Indy back-to-back?

Rams? Lol. Another west coast team loss.

@Cle, @Cin, Cle - they’d be extremely lucky to get 2 out of 3 of those but realistically, I don’t know...probably only one.

@ Arizona? Another west coast loss.

Buffalo -Josh Allen, Josh Brown, Devin Singletary? maybe a win at home.

Jets - should be a win, but then so should the Niners and Seahawks.

@Ravens - Another loss.

So what’s the pessimistic view? Maybe 6 wins at best...

AtlantaDan
09-24-2019, 06:23 PM
This linked article on how the Dolphins incredibly bad start projects them to be possibly the worst team of all NFL time includes this nugget on where the 2019 Steelers realistically may be heading

From 2002, the first year the NFL expanded to 32 teams, to 2018 there have been 76 0-3 teams, or roughly four per season. Most of those teams eventually turn things around, finishing with an average won-loss record of 5-11

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/09/24/miami-dolphins-could-be-worst-team-nfl-history/

Fire Goodell
09-24-2019, 06:52 PM
This linked article on how the Dolphins incredibly bad start projects them to be possibly the worst team of all NFL time includes this nugget on where the 2019 Steelers realistically may be heading

From 2002, the first year the NFL expanded to 32 teams, to 2018 there have been 76 0-3 teams, or roughly four per season. Most of those teams eventually turn things around, finishing with an average won-loss record of 5-11

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/09/24/miami-dolphins-could-be-worst-team-nfl-history/

The Dolphins play the Jets twice, I give them a good chance to at least split with them. TBH so far the Jets actually looked as bad as I've ever seen any team in the last couple weeks. Maybe they'll be a little tougher when Sam Darnold is back, but if not... 1-15.