Bud Dupree is the reason Steelers passed on Winovich

[polamalubeast]

When the Steelers gave up their 2nd round draft choice to move up for Devin Bush, I thought there was no chance Pittsburgh would be able to land Chase Winovich. The Steelers mortgaged pick 20, pick 52, and a 2020 3rd round pick to move up to number 10 overall.

As the draft progressed into day two, I was beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. The second round came and went, and still Chase Winovich had not been drafted.

Finally, we arrived at pick 66 overall – the first of Steelers’ 3rd round picks. The standout Michigan pass rusher was on the board. The Steelers clearly had a need at the position and Winovich fits the Steelers with his build, speed, and ferociousness. Pittsburgh had a dinner meeting with Chase at his pro day, so there was obvious interest on the part of the Steelers.

Then Diontae Johnson was drafted to the Steelers… not Chase Winovich.

Johnson may very well turn out to be a solid receiver, but the reasoning behind the decision to pass up a talented pass rusher is baffling. During a Q&A session, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette was asked why the Steelers passed on Winovich. Here’s what he had to say:

Because THEY like Dupree. Isn’t that obvious? I’m not saying I agree. I’m just telling you why they didn’t do what you suggest.

When Dulac said they, he was referring to the men up front: Kevin Colbert and Mike Tomlin. In four years, Bud Dupree has not managed a season over 6.0 sacks. Though he’s not a bust on the level of Artie Burns or Jarvis Jones, his play has done anything but warranted a new contract (let alone a 5th-year option).

read more

https://stillcurtain.com/2019/05/10/bud-dupree-reason-steelers-passed-on-winovich/

[st33lersguy]

Why not like a guy who has made minimal impact in his career. Barely noticeable improvements across 4 years is still improvement. Let's just pretend we didn't miss with this pick and also let's pretend we have actual depth behind TJ Watt too, not like edge rusher is important or anything.

[polamalubeast]

I have no problem with the Johnson pick, since we need depth to the position of receiver ... But I do not like the confidence of Tomlin, Butler and Colbert on Dupree

I would not be surprised if Dupree has a new contract of $ 10 million or more per year.

[Mojouw]

Well this article makes about 19 assumptions in 4 paragraphs. Might be a new record.

1. The entire thing is framed with the assumption that Winovich is a better NFL player than Bud Dupree. No one knows if that is true.
2. That Dulac's response is grounded in anything other than a series of interpretations of post-draft quotes from Colbert and company. Unless he saw their board where Winovich was ranked higher than Johnson and knows they violated their rankings to go WR instead of OLB --- then it is just speculation.
3. Colbert's quotes on Dupree (I believe) were after the draft. You know, that period in time where EVERY NFL GM is convinced they just put together a SB roster or at least has the common sense to publicly lie about it.
4. Ignores the fact that the roster prior to the draft really did not have an X WR on it. You know the position a generational HOF caliber talent has had on lock-down for a number of years now. The Steelers drafted what they claim is the best X WR in the draft (I don't agree) in the 3rd round.

What is my point? Bud Dupree may still stink. He may not. He may be entirely underwhelming. Who knows? But this article falls well short of demonstrating that Winovich is a better player, the Steelers had any interest in drafting him, and that Johnson wasn't the target all along.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

But this article falls well short of demonstrating that Winovich is a better player, the Steelers had any interest in drafting him, and that Johnson wasn't the target all along.

Agree. Steelers said they had a 1st round grade on Johnson, so he was obviously the BPA in round 3 when their pick came up.

IMO, Winovich is a all hustle guy like TJ Watt, but without the hand skills and lesser athletic ability than Watt. Johnson might have been a good fit, a need pick but the Steelers had a much better grade on him than Winovich. Saying its about Dupree is a very big stretch IMO.

[Fire Goodell]

Watt and Winovich would have looked like a good WWE Tag team

But other than that, I liked both of our rd 3 picks. You could also say that Johnson and Layne were both need picks as well.

[steelreserve]

Well this article makes about 19 assumptions in 4 paragraphs. Might be a new record.

1. The entire thing is framed with the assumption that Winovich is a better NFL player than Bud Dupree. No one knows if that is true.
2. That Dulac's response is grounded in anything other than a series of interpretations of post-draft quotes from Colbert and company. Unless he saw their board where Winovich was ranked higher than Johnson and knows they violated their rankings to go WR instead of OLB --- then it is just speculation.
3. Colbert's quotes on Dupree (I believe) were after the draft. You know, that period in time where EVERY NFL GM is convinced they just put together a SB roster or at least has the common sense to publicly lie about it.
4. Ignores the fact that the roster prior to the draft really did not have an X WR on it. You know the position a generational HOF caliber talent has had on lock-down for a number of years now. The Steelers drafted what they claim is the best X WR in the draft (I don't agree) in the 3rd round.

What is my point? Bud Dupree may still stink. He may not. He may be entirely underwhelming. Who knows? But this article falls well short of demonstrating that Winovich is a better player, the Steelers had any interest in drafting him, and that Johnson wasn't the target all along.

This may be true. But it is also undeniable that the Steelers have been acting ... strangely ... about Dupree for quite a while now.

Generally, their actions on Dupree indicate that they regard him as much more valuable than what many others see from the available evidence. And the main justification is "they must know something we don't."

Well, a guy huffing paint also knows a lot of things I don't, although they're not necessarily correct. I wonder whether that's the answer, or it really is true there's something I don't see. I'd go with the paint, though. The decisions they make about him and the way they talk him up are not what people normally do for players with his level of productivity .... most people would have been talking about a failed first-round draft pick long ago. Just because Jarvis Jones was there to look even worse by comparison, and Artie Burns does the same job now, doesn't mean we've got a future All-Pro on our hands.

[HollywoodSteel]

I also think this is a false narrative.

The article makes it sound like Chase would objectively start as our edge rusher like he’s Nick Bosa or something. If Chase and Bud were both in this draft, who is the better prospect? What about Bud with three years NFL experience under his belt in the Steelers’ system vs. Chase as a rookie prospect that was passed on by every team until the third round?

I’m not saying Bud will definitely become a pro bowler in 2019 but he has better athleticism and experience than Chase, so maybe, just maybe, the smart money is still on Bud to be a better fit for us in 2019.

What is so special about Chase? His motor? That’s exactly what was so special about Jarvis Jones as I recall.

[86WARD]

Well this article makes about 19 assumptions in 4 paragraphs. Might be a new record.

1. The entire thing is framed with the assumption that Winovich is a better NFL player than Bud Dupree. No one knows if that is true.
2. That Dulac's response is grounded in anything other than a series of interpretations of post-draft quotes from Colbert and company. Unless he saw their board where Winovich was ranked higher than Johnson and knows they violated their rankings to go WR instead of OLB --- then it is just speculation.
3. Colbert's quotes on Dupree (I believe) were after the draft. You know, that period in time where EVERY NFL GM is convinced they just put together a SB roster or at least has the common sense to publicly lie about it.
4. Ignores the fact that the roster prior to the draft really did not have an X WR on it. You know the position a generational HOF caliber talent has had on lock-down for a number of years now. The Steelers drafted what they claim is the best X WR in the draft (I don't agree) in the 3rd round.

What is my point? Bud Dupree may still stink. He may not. He may be entirely underwhelming. Who knows? But this article falls well short of demonstrating that Winovich is a better player, the Steelers had any interest in drafting him, and that Johnson wasn't the target all along.

Thanks. Saved me a lot of keystrokes. I hate that any asshole with a computer can put an opinion out there and call it an “article”...

[pczach]

What if the Steelers really believe in a couple of the guys they've acquired the last couple years? If that's the case, we should find out this year.

[86WARD]

What if the Steelers really believe in a couple of the guys they've acquired the last couple years? If that's the case, we should find out this year.

Olasunkanmi Adeniyi looked very promising at times...

James Harrison or Greg Lloyd aren’t gonna just pop up out of nowhere...lol

[steelreserve]

The article makes it sound like Chase would objectively start as our edge rusher like he’s Nick Bosa or something. If Chase and Bud were both in this draft, who is the better prospect? What about Bud with three years NFL experience under his belt in the Steelers’ system vs. Chase as a rookie prospect that was passed on by every team until the third round?

I’m not saying Bud will definitely become a pro bowler in 2019 but he has better athleticism and experience than Chase, so maybe, just maybe, the smart money is still on Bud to be a better fit for us in 2019.

What is so special about Chase? His motor? That’s exactly what was so special about Jarvis Jones as I recall.


What makes me think Chase would be a day-one starter is ... Dupree's play. What Dupree brings to the table is that he's a warm body. Therefore, it stands to reason that you should get similar results with another warm body. There certainly isn't much risk; at worst we'd be falling off the bottom step.

In other words: Dupree with three years of NFL experience is only marginally better than Dupree with no NFL experience - which is to say, not good - and on average, you should expect more out of your typical early to mid-round rookie. Hell, the guy we took in the sixth round this year could not be much worse. Like I said, what's the risk? What are we afraid of? "zomg we have a loser at OLB instead of the other loser we had before - oh noes! We're finished, guys!"

The probability is in your favor that you will get a better player that Dupree straight-up with a third-round pick. And vastly in your favor that you will get a better "pound-for-pound" player when you consider the cost in terms of both salary and draft picks.

The only "smart money" in this situation is the $10 million we would've saved by throwing Dupree out on his ass. But that's dumb money now. My god, I hope that passing on an edge rusher doesn't mean we think he's the long-term solution.

[Fire Goodell]

Winovich only made headlines because he had that ultimate warrior haircut lol. The fact he fell to almost the 4th round really says there's a lot of NFL teams thinking he wasn't ready for prime time

[Hound]

The Steelers missed a prime opportunity in last year’s draft. Harold Landry could be a Steeler and I’m willing to bet the chances of getting Edmunds in round two would have been decent. Before Landry got hurt he was balling

[BlackAndGold]

I thought it was more about being high on Ola?

Which gets me excited. This guy should be even better. Still just 21 years old.

[steelreserve]

Just to be clear, it's completely possible they passed on Wimovich, in particular, because they just didn't think he was any good. But the overall decision to forego any serious attempt to add OLB prospects ... that's what's more worrying.

[teegre]

Olasunkanmi Adeniyi looked very promising at times...

James Harrison or Greg Lloyd aren’t gonna just pop up out of nowhere...lol

Technically, Greg was a sixth round pick and James went undrafted. Both took a few years to make an impact.

Keion Adams could be the next Greg Lloyd.

Olaqwerty Adeniyi could be the next James Harrison.

[Steeldude]

This Dupree is killing the Steelers even in the off-season.

[Mojouw]

Here is a take —- Winovich wont be good in the NFL. Rotational guy, sure. Double digit sack guy? Not a chance.

why does every conversation about this guy assume the opposite?

Vince Biegel made plays opposite TJ WAtt. Went in the 4th round. Never did anything. More reasonable comp for Winovich than Watt.

[st33lersguy]

Ok so there is no guarantee that Winovich will actually be any good. You can say the same thing for any draft pick and after Sweat went it seemed to be the end of the upper echelon LBs, totally fair. My problem is all they have done in the last TWO drafts at this point is use it on an undersized guy who they may switch to ILB, and both stubbornly sticking with Bud Dupree at $9.2 million while he is making minimal impact (he's in his 5th year, by now it should be clear his breakout year will never come) and thinking the depth is fine (it's far from it). Bud is not an impact player, he's a mediocre player at best who has fallen woefully short of his draft status who on a really good day will make one play in a game. Bud just isn't good, and sticking with what we know isn't good is not smart, sticking with what isn't good because other options might not be good either is weak-minded thinking, and pretending that what isn't good is worth keeping is just plain stupid

[teegre]

Most pressures by a college edge-defender since the start of 2017:


1. Sutton Smith, 160
.
.
.
.
2. Maxx Crosby, 112
3. Anthony Nelson, 111
4. Chase Winovich, 109
4. Ben Banogu, 109

Stats are stats, but this tells me two things:

1. Winovich has a ton of pressures in a quality conference. True, he may have gotten pressure a la Jarvis Jones (hustle, but no actual skill), but I don’t know. I do know: he’s a guy that “I” wanted (and so, I am currently I’m trying to be objective).

2. Smith put a ton of pressure on opposing QBs, but in a weaker conference. Of course, Khalil Mack played in a weaker conference, too.

SUMMATION:
There are pros & cons to both picks... but, Smith came at a cheaper price tag.

[Mojouw]

This is starting to be like the old argument that the team never did anything to improve the OL. They did. They threw 1-2 draft picks at it every year, they were just low picks that didn't pan out.

That is where things are with the OLBs. Toledo Alphabet Soup could come on and make everyone stop worrying. Slim Shady from NIU could keep pressuring the QB at a ridiculous rate. Keion Adams could do something. Far Fig Newton Hughy could move up from the PS and be the next Chickillo. Or none of that could happen.

The team is not ignoring the position. They just haven't found the right answer yet.

[teegre]

I read a tweet from PFF (take that as you will) that in the past three seasons, their highest grades for the entire season, for any single season, for an edge defender were:

1. Nick Bosa 2018
2. Sutton Smith 2017

[Six Rings]

I have no problem with the Johnson pick, since we need depth to the position of receiver ... But I do not like the confidence of Tomlin, Butler and Colbert on Dupree

I would not be surprised if Dupree has a new contract of $ 10 million or more per year.

Bud is what he is at this point in time


On the plus side, he can produce a nice speed rush.


On the minus side, he's a little weak vs. the run, isn't a smart football player, and is just okay as the other edge rusher. At times I think his effort can be better.


Bud is an above average NFL starter on defense, nothing more beyond that. Jason Worilds, who duped the Steelers into a franchise tag deal then promptly retired was a better player IMO. The Steelers could not afford to pick an edge player because it cost a lot to get Bush. They took their chances later in the draft in the 6th round.

- - - Updated - - -


Most pressures by a college edge-defender since the start of 2017:


1. Sutton Smith, 160
.
.
.
.
2. Maxx Crosby, 112
3. Anthony Nelson, 111
4. Chase Winovich, 109
4. Ben Banogu, 109

Stats are stats, but this tells me two things:

1. Winovich has a ton of pressures in a quality conference. True, he may have gotten pressure a la Jarvis Jones (hustle, but no actual skill), but I don’t know. I do know: he’s a guy that “I” wanted (and so, I am currently I’m trying to be objective).

2. Smith put a ton of pressure on opposing QBs, but in a weaker conference. Of course, Khalil Mack played in a weaker conference, too.

SUMMATION:
There are pros & cons to both picks... but, Smith came at a cheaper price tag.

Smith looked out of place at the senior bowl, and he worked out just okay at the combine. I do not expect him to make an impact beyond special teams as a reserve pass rusher. We'll see, with his short stature he's going to have to be James Harrison strong to rush the passer, or have great hand use to make a difference.

I think his best position might be ILB. NFL tackles will abuse him at OLB. That's how I see it.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/sutton-smith?id=3219534d-4967-1290-7c06-bc9db721f480

[steelreserve]

Here is a take —- Winovich wont be good in the NFL. Rotational guy, sure. Double digit sack guy? Not a chance.

why does every conversation about this guy assume the opposite?

I don't think it will necessarily work out any better than you said. But here's the thing - that would STILL be a win for us.

What you juat described is basically the same as Dupree. A rotational guy cast as a starter, who is NEVER going to be anything special. Only he's costing us $10 million, and I am getting incredibly worried that the team's fascination with him will soon lead to bad decisions, or is possibly already causing bad decisions to be made. Any day, that 4-year, $48 million April Fool's joke could become a real contract.


Vince Biegel made plays opposite TJ WAtt. Went in the 4th round. Never did anything. More reasonable comp for Winovich than Watt.

You know, you bring up an excellent point. Why not take a moment to look at Dupree's career trajectory:

2015: SUCKED DONKEY DICK
2016: HURT HIMSELF SUCKING DONKEY DICK
--- Watt shows up ---
"omg he's improving now!"

... and the amazing thing is, he still isn't even good, just low-average. Without Watt, it is not too far-fetched to picture Dupree starting 2019 just trying to make the Dolphins' roster out of training camp on a non-guaranteed deal. That guy owes every penny of his $10M option to Watt, and then some. By the way, look over at that side of the defense for what a REAL first-round pick, or a REAL $10M linebacker is supposed to look like. That's when you start to see that what we've got on Dupree's side is a more typical mid-round or low-priced journeyman talent. Not some rare irreplaceable unicorn.

[Mojouw]

I don't think it will necessarily work out any better than you said. But here's the thing - that would STILL be a win for us.

What you juat described is basically the same as Dupree. A rotational guy cast as a starter, who is NEVER going to be anything special. Only he's costing us $10 million, and I am getting incredibly worried that the team's fascination with him will soon lead to bad decisions, or is possibly already causing bad decisions to be made. Any day, that 4-year, $48 million April Fool's joke could become a real contract.



You know, you bring up an excellent point. Why not take a moment to look at Dupree's career trajectory:

2015: SUCKED DONKEY DICK
2016: HURT HIMSELF SUCKING DONKEY DICK
--- Watt shows up ---
"omg he's improving now!"

... and the amazing thing is, he still isn't even good, just low-average. Without Watt, it is not too far-fetched to picture Dupree starting 2019 just trying to make the Dolphins' roster out of training camp on a non-guaranteed deal. That guy owes every penny of his $10M option to Watt, and then some. By the way, look over at that side of the defense for what a REAL first-round pick, or a REAL $10M linebacker is supposed to look like. That's when you start to see that what we've got on Dupree's side is a more typical mid-round or low-priced journeyman talent. Not some rare irreplaceable unicorn.

You're having a different conversation. This really isn't about Bud Dupree and his evaluation as a player. Nor is is it about what the "reasonable" contract value for 6-8 sack OLB is in the NFL free agent market. It is about Chase Winovich and if the Steelers and the rest of the NFL passed on some great outside pass rusher for 3 rounds. The underlying assumption in the argument is that Winovich will be a really good (mostly taken around here as 8-10+ sacks and strong against the run) OLB in the NFL. I think he falls short of that.

Would I like to see the Steelers improve at the position? Absolutely. Do I think Winovich would have been the answer? Nope. Would I have wanted to see the Steelers go after an OLB before ILB, DB, and WR? Again, nope.

I guess it is all how you see guys. I think Winovich is going to have pro career on a scale of Anthony Chickillo to Jason Worilds. I got no problem passing on that. If you look at Winovich and see Mike Vrabel to Kevin Greene, then I guess it would suck to pass on that guy...unless the WR is the next 100+ catch a year guy...

...Point is this was a dumb "article" that had speculation, unfounded assumptions, and facts out of context masquerading as actual information.

[steelreserve]

You're having a different conversation. This really isn't about Bud Dupree and his evaluation as a player. Nor is is it about what the "reasonable" contract value for 6-8 sack OLB is in the NFL free agent market. It is about Chase Winovich and if the Steelers and the rest of the NFL passed on some great outside pass rusher for 3 rounds. The underlying assumption in the argument is that Winovich will be a really good (mostly taken around here as 8-10+ sacks and strong against the run) OLB in the NFL. I think he falls short of that.

Would I like to see the Steelers improve at the position? Absolutely. Do I think Winovich would have been the answer? Nope. Would I have wanted to see the Steelers go after an OLB before ILB, DB, and WR? Again, nope.

I guess it is all how you see guys. I think Winovich is going to have pro career on a scale of Anthony Chickillo to Jason Worilds. I got no problem passing on that. If you look at Winovich and see Mike Vrabel to Kevin Greene, then I guess it would suck to pass on that guy...unless the WR is the next 100+ catch a year guy...

...Point is this was a dumb "article" that had speculation, unfounded assumptions, and facts out of context masquerading as actual information.

Yeah, just to be clear:

Passing on Winovich = no big deal

Passing on OLB because of other priorities = no big deal

Thinking Dupree is the answer = 4-12 loser move

The article certainly is just wild guessing about that AND Winovich is not necessarily a great example to use; it's not as if he's a "can't-miss" pick. However, I am kind of alarmed in general at the way they have handled the Dupree situation.

Side point, I dont think Dupree is a "6-8 sack OLB." He's about a 4-sack OLB, whatever the minimum is that you get by showing up. He had a couple more sacks the last couple years because other people's rising tide lifted the Dupree boat along with it. Take any other crappy OLB with 3.5 sacks and put him in Dupree's spot, and suddenly he'd be putting up 5.5 or 6 sacks a year too. Doesn't mean he'd be any good, though.

[Shoes]

I guess we will see what Bill does with him. Good thread to revisit at seasons end. I'll put it on my list. :chuckle:

[polamalubeast]

Yeah, just to be clear:

Passing on Winovich = no big deal

Passing on OLB because of other priorities = no big deal

Thinking Dupree is the answer = 4-12 loser move

The article certainly is just wild guessing about that AND Winovich is not necessarily a great example to use; it's not as if he's a "can't-miss" pick. However, I am kind of alarmed in general at the way they have handled the Dupree situation.

Side point, I dont think Dupree is a "6-8 sack OLB." He's about a 4-sack OLB, whatever the minimum is that you get by showing up. He had a couple more sacks the last couple years because other people's rising tide lifted the Dupree boat along with it. Take any other crappy OLB with 3.5 sacks and put him in Dupree's spot, and suddenly he'd be putting up 5.5 or 6 sacks a year too. Doesn't mean he'd be any good, though.

Dupree is now the king of the dong sacks like Jason Worilds was in 2013

[teegre]

Smith looked out of place at the senior bowl, and he worked out just okay at the combine. I do not expect him to make an impact beyond special teams as a reserve pass rusher. We'll see, with his short stature he's going to have to be James Harrison strong to rush the passer, or have great hand use to make a difference.

I think his best position might be ILB. NFL tackles will abuse him at OLB. That's how I see it.

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/sutton-smith?id=3219534d-4967-1290-7c06-bc9db721f480

True. I place a lot of stock in the Senior Bowl. The best playing against the best. And... Smith didn’t fair well.

Then again, 160 pressures is insane (at any level).

I’d say that Sutton will never be James Harrison strong; he doesn’t seem to have that type of frame. Instead, he should rely on his quickness.

[86WARD]

Technically, Greg was a sixth round pick and James went undrafted. Both took a few years to make an impact.

Exactly my point. These guys don’t just pop up...it took time for them to develop.