NFL Free Agency Rumors: Steelers reportedly among the teams interested in Justin Houston

[Shoes]

The Pittsburgh Steelers (https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/pittsburgh-steelers) are a team making moves, and while many fans might think most of their moves are done — you might want to think again.
https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/3/14/18265891/nfl-free-agency-rumors-steelers-reportedly-among-the-teams-interested-in-justin-houston-update-news

[Shoes]

What do you think, would it be worth it?

[Steeldude]

Why? So he can play behind Dupree and be inactive for multiple games?

[Fire Goodell]

What do you think, would it be worth it?

Can Dupree's 5th year option be put in the paper shredder if we can sign him? If so, yes. Houston is getting up there in age but still an upgrade over Dupree nonetheless, and I don't see Bud staying with the team past this year

[Hound]

Hell yeah it would be worth it. Two good OLB and a solid 3rd with bud. Pair that with a Devin in the middle and better talent at the cb position. Yeah I’m all in on that.

[BlackAndGold]

I don't see it, same with the Tate rumors.

[steelreserve]

Why? So he can play behind Dupree and be inactive for multiple games?

Dude, Dupree got $9.2 million, so we are pretty much assured he is going to spend at least 10 games on the injured list.

All joking aside, yes, we could use a real OLB opposite Watt. I guess you could argue we've made it through the past two seasons without one, so what's the big rush ... but why not, if we can afford it.

[Mojouw]

If Houston is willing to come and play a part time role and the dollars can be made to work -- then absolutely. Same with Clay Matthews. Both guys can still get after the QB - just not as full time starters.

Additionally, if the Steelers draft this magical unicorn edge rusher in the 3rd round that everyone is convinced exists and will be available, then they will need to get that player snaps. Those snaps should come at the expense of Dupree and whoever is the #3 OLB on the depth chart. The good thing about Houston is that he is comfortable rushing from either side. So he rotates with Watt and Dupree and magic draft pick rotates with Dupree.

[munchy]

the only way i see this working out is houston as a situation/rotation guy(for both sides), dupree leaving next year and the olb we draft this year gets in the rotation to develop ad then take over once houston is cut/gone
of course, it all comes down to the contract numbers. seeing this is only the second day, im thinking it is still high
miised 21 game the last 4 years or so. kinda risky if he wants big money

[steelreserve]

Additionally, if the Steelers draft this magical unicorn edge rusher in the 3rd round that everyone is convinced exists and will be available, then they will need to get that player snaps. Those snaps should come at the expense of Dupree and whoever is the #3 OLB on the depth chart. The good thing about Houston is that he is comfortable rushing from either side. So he rotates with Watt and Dupree and magic draft pick rotates with Dupree.

Just to clarify, it's not a magical unicorn edge rusher. It's just "a guy." That's all Dupree is.

The point is to replace his ho-hum with the same ho-hum but for $8 million less money. Not that every random draft pick is going to come in and smash the sack record. Then you take that $8 million and use it on things like this.

Like ... People are aware that the only point of the draft is not that the new player has to be clearly better than the old player, right? It's also to replenish your roster so you don't have to spend foolishly.

As far as magical unicorn edge rushers, that's roughly how I feel about Dupree ... all this value and production that is so elusive and never seen, but some people swear it exists.

That's Dupree, the magical unicorn. He gets all kinds of pressure on the quarterback, like, out in the woods where no one is around to see it. Beats the shit out of offensive tackles in the forest, while all the people are back at their homes, sleeping and stuff.

[Mojouw]

Just to clarify, it's not a magical unicorn edge rusher. It's just "a guy." That's all Dupree is.

The point is to replace his ho-hum with the same ho-hum but for $8 million less money. Not that every random draft pick is going to come in and smash the sack record. Then you take that $8 million and use it on things like this.

Like ... People are aware that the only point of the draft is not that the new player has to be clearly better than the old player, right? It's also to replenish your roster so you don't have to spend foolishly.

As far as magical unicorn edge rushers, that's roughly how I feel about Dupree ... all this value and production that is so elusive and never seen, but some people swear it exists.

That's Dupree, the magical unicorn. He gets all kinds of pressure on the quarterback, like, out in the woods where no one is around to see it. Beats the shit out of offensive tackles in the forest, while all the people are back at their homes, sleeping and stuff.

But you keep saying that ANYONE would or could do it. Name one. Like how hard is that? Pull up old draft lists. Look at FA listings. Name a guy that costs less than a 2nd round pick or less than 8 million on the open market who gets 6+ sacks per year.

I will spot you Danielle Hunter and Terrell Suggs. Hint -- I cheated. You're gonna struggle to find more. In fact, I will do it for you. If we ignore guys playing at DE - there are 2 guys drafted in the 3rd round or later since 2014 that have had a season where they bested Dupree's production. They are Kyle Fackerell and Carl Lawson. If you add in DE's you get 3 more guys - Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Flowers.

So we are talking about 6 guys out of 121 draft picks between 2014 and 2018 that fit the criteria. So, yeah, magical.

[86WARD]

So isn’t Dupree’s salary guaranteed as of yesterday? So to get cap space, they have Burnett and/or Burns to release and/or trade Dupree? All that and your over $15M in cap space?

[Mojouw]

So isn’t Dupree’s salary guaranteed as of yesterday? So to get cap space, they have Burnett and/or Burns to release and/or trade Dupree? All that and your over $15M in cap space?

Extend Ben.
Cut Burnett
Burns costs next to nothing, so you could get rid of him and/or Sensabuagh
Extend Dupree - because he is getting that 9 million no matter what now - even if you cut him.

I suspect that they will extend Ben (money towards FA moves they still want to make). I they need more they will restructure one of the linemen (say DeCastro or Tuitt). Then Burnett gets cut between now and the end of the draft -- because his savings should pay for the draft class and a bit of an in season contingency.

I actually have zero idea where they stand cap wise. It is possible that Nelson (as an example) got a bunch of money but spread out over 3 years so his cap hit could still be like $6 million or something in 2019.

You are correct, they can find the cash. But it is now going to require choices.

[RunNGun]

I don't know if Dupree will be gone after this season. It's not like he's warranted a huge contract. I don't see why anyone would give him a huge deal. It's reasonable to think we bring him back on a 1 or 2 year deal that's fair for both sides.

[Mojouw]

So isn’t Dupree’s salary guaranteed as of yesterday? So to get cap space, they have Burnett and/or Burns to release and/or trade Dupree? All that and your over $15M in cap space?


Extend Ben.
Cut Burnett
Burns costs next to nothing, so you could get rid of him and/or Sensabuagh
Extend Dupree - because he is getting that 9 million no matter what now - even if you cut him.

I suspect that they will extend Ben (money towards FA moves they still want to make). I they need more they will restructure one of the linemen (say DeCastro or Tuitt). Then Burnett gets cut between now and the end of the draft -- because his savings should pay for the draft class and a bit of an in season contingency.

I actually have zero idea where they stand cap wise. It is possible that Nelson (as an example) got a bunch of money but spread out over 3 years so his cap hit could still be like $6 million or something in 2019.

You are correct, they can find the cash. But it is now going to require choices.

Did a quick search while I wait for students to finish exams. Looks like with Nelson but not Moncrief/McCullers/Chickillo/Rogers -- the team has just a bit over $10 million in room. Say 5 million of the draft class. 3 million for in-season. That leaves 2. Restructure/extend Ben and I bet you can get about $6 million without trying to throw at another FA.

[steelreserve]

But you keep saying that ANYONE would or could do it. Name one. Like how hard is that? Pull up old draft lists. Look at FA listings. Name a guy that costs less than a 2nd round pick or less than 8 million on the open market who gets 6+ sacks per year.

I will spot you Danielle Hunter and Terrell Suggs. Hint -- I cheated. You're gonna struggle to find more. In fact, I will do it for you. If we ignore guys playing at DE - there are 2 guys drafted in the 3rd round or later since 2014 that have had a season where they bested Dupree's production. They are Kyle Fackerell and Carl Lawson. If you add in DE's you get 3 more guys - Judon, Zadarius Smith, and Flowers.

So we are talking about 6 guys out of 121 draft picks between 2014 and 2018 that fit the criteria. So, yeah, magical.

Doubtful. Anyone good enough to play in the NFL at all is going to be good for 4-6 sacks. If you really wanted to, you could just shove Chickillo over there and he'll get that many. Wouldn't be a very strong OLB, but he'd get the 4-6 sacks. That number just shows who's getting the playing time.

Sacks are not production. Impact plays and disruption are the real production of an OLB. Beating your guy and forcing the play where the offense doesn't want it to go. Making people flustered and make bad plays because you're in their face or in the backfield. Making blocking schemes fall apart. Taking away places for people to go. You don't get any stats at all for most of that. But it's what determines your effectiveness on the 95% of plays where the QB doesn't get sacked.

Now, how much of that does Dupree generate? Not a whole lot. His 5.5 sacks might as well have been zero sacks in that respect. How much does Chickillo generate? Even less. They both suck at what an effective OLB needs to do. Nobody is going "Oh shit, if we don't account for Bud Dupree in our game plan, we're screwed." He's not tearing around the backfield forcing the play inside. He's kind of ... hanging around the play if you don't pay any special attention to him. I guess that's better than 3 years ago when basically any lineman would just block him out of the play easily 1-on-1, but it's not really anything that helps.

But yea, 1 out of 100 times, he happens to be where you need to be standing to get a sack, like any other defender would. The guy isn't shit, hasn't ever been shit, and wouldn't even look halfway competent if Watt hadn't come along to demand attention.

[Mojouw]

Doubtful. Anyone good enough to play in the NFL at all is going to be good for 4-6 sacks. If you really wanted to, you could just shove Chickillo over there and he'll get that many. Wouldn't be a very strong OLB, but he'd get the 4-6 sacks. That number just shows who's getting the playing time.

Sacks are not production. Impact plays and disruption are the real production of an OLB. Beating your guy and forcing the play where the offense doesn't want it to go. Making people flustered and make bad plays because you're in their face or in the backfield. Making blocking schemes fall apart. Taking away places for people to go. You don't get any stats at all for most of that. But it's what determines your effectiveness on the 95% of plays where the QB doesn't get sacked.

Now, how much of that does Dupree generate? Not a whole lot. His 5.5 sacks might as well have been zero sacks in that respect. How much does Chickillo generate? Even less. They both suck at what an effective OLB needs to do. Nobody is going "Oh shit, if we don't account for Bud Dupree in our game plan, we're screwed." He's not tearing around the backfield forcing the play inside. He's kind of ... hanging around the play if you don't pay any special attention to him. I guess that's better than 3 years ago when basically any lineman would just block him out of the play easily 1-on-1, but it's not really anything that helps.

But yea, 1 out of 100 times, he happens to be where you need to be standing to get a sack, like any other defender would. The guy isn't shit, hasn't ever been shit, and wouldn't even look halfway competent if Watt hadn't come along to demand attention.

Again, you're arguing a point with yourself. I don't think myself or anyone else is arguing in favor of "Bud Dupree wrecking of gameplans and destroyer of offensive lineman". But what you fail to acknowledge or seemingly even consider is the consequences and risks of not employing Bud Dupree. Specifically, even worse production or equivalent production at twice the price. I fully acknowledge that sacks are a poor benchmark for overall performance, but since neither you nor I is going to "watch the tape" on all the OLBs across the league, it is a quick and dirty proxy for what we are really talking about.

Bottom line: 121 guys were drafted in the 3rd round or later to play DE or OLB between 2014 and 2018. 85-95% of them were WORSE than Bud Dupree. So the concept that you can just pull a guy out of the NCAA or off a PS across the NFL and stand him out on the edge of 3-4 and not get even worse than Dupree is demonstrably false.

I don't know how else to explain it. You keep coming back to this is some defense of Dupree. That is besides the point. The point is that if you want to fill the roster need of "Starting OLB that is better than Bud Dupree" you will need to spend well north of $9 million dollars a year and several rounds higher than the 3rd or below in the draft. Why that seems to be impossible to acknowledge is beyond me. The weight of the evidence supports that cost estimate of Dupree's replacement. That by no means should be taken -- well MojoUW doesn't want to replace Dupree and thinks he is just peachy. Of course not. But you can't draft every position in the first round and you can't get everything in the FA market for a price you can afford. The team can and has led the league in sacks with Dupree at OLB. That position can wait while the team attempts to patch the gaping holes in the secondary and ILB.

[Mojouw]

Alex Okafor just got 3 years 24 million from the Chiefs. That guy is the definition of "random idiot who can pretend to be a 3-4 OLB when he isn't playing 4-3 DE".

So that would be like a 1-2 million dollar savings and Okafor puts up worse sack, pressure, and tackle stats.

Gee, it is almost like comps and information can be used to support a position...

[steelreserve]

Again, you're arguing a point with yourself. I don't think myself or anyone else is arguing in favor of "Bud Dupree wrecking of gameplans and destroyer of offensive lineman". But what you fail to acknowledge or seemingly even consider is the consequences and risks of not employing Bud Dupree. Specifically, even worse production or equivalent production at twice the price. I fully acknowledge that sacks are a poor benchmark for overall performance, but since neither you nor I is going to "watch the tape" on all the OLBs across the league, it is a quick and dirty proxy for what we are really talking about.

Bottom line: 121 guys were drafted in the 3rd round or later to play DE or OLB between 2014 and 2018. 85-95% of them were WORSE than Bud Dupree. So the concept that you can just pull a guy out of the NCAA or off a PS across the NFL and stand him out on the edge of 3-4 and not get even worse than Dupree is demonstrably false.

I don't know how else to explain it. You keep coming back to this is some defense of Dupree. That is besides the point. The point is that if you want to fill the roster need of "Starting OLB that is better than Bud Dupree" you will need to spend well north of $9 million dollars a year and several rounds higher than the 3rd or below in the draft. Why that seems to be impossible to acknowledge is beyond me. The weight of the evidence supports that cost estimate of Dupree's replacement. That by no means should be taken -- well MojoUW doesn't want to replace Dupree and thinks he is just peachy. Of course not. But you can't draft every position in the first round and you can't get everything in the FA market for a price you can afford. The team can and has led the league in sacks with Dupree at OLB. That position can wait while the team attempts to patch the gaping holes in the secondary and ILB.

Well, I guess what it boils down to is, you think there is a lot bigger drop from Dupree to the floor of "player X" than I do. That also means I think the risk is a lot less than you do. (Not a lot of danger in falling off the bottom step.)

Here is a likely more concise way of formulating my position:

DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY

[BlackAndGold]

Well, I guess what it boils down to is, you think there is a lot bigger drop from Dupree to the floor of "player X" than I do. That also means I think the risk is a lot less than you do. (Not a lot of danger in falling off the bottom step.)

Here is a likely more concise way of formulating my position:

DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY
DUPREE IS GAY

Have to ask, why do you have the GOAT as your avatar? lost a bet?

[steelreserve]

Have to ask, why do you have the GOAT as your avatar? lost a bet?

Indeed I did lose a bet (about Bell's new contract being over/under $12M a year). But that doesn't look like Joe Montana to me.

[steelcityboyz]

But that doesn't look like Joe Montana to me.:thumbsup:

[Born2Steel]

ALL you have to do is look at what players of the same positions are signing for in FA. It really is just that simple.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/

[DesertSteel]

Houston and Soup could be had for $13M - a much better combo than Bud and Chick.

[Mojouw]

Houston and Soup could be had for $13M - a much better combo than Bud and Chick.

The guy who played a reduced percentage of snaps because his body is breaking down and the guy with 9 NFL snaps?

That’s your plan? That’s a big ass bet on a low pair.

[steelreserve]

The guy who played a reduced percentage of snaps because his body is breaking down and the guy with 9 NFL snaps?

That’s your plan? That’s a big ass bet on a low pair.

Well, our current situation is like a $13M bet on a jack-high hand and all the cards are already turned over.

[Mojouw]

Well, our current situation is like a $13M bet on a jack-high hand and all the cards are already turned over.

Maybe? But add Houston or Harold or Barrett to what’s already there. Now you have a rotation of useful guys.

[Born2Steel]

Maybe? But add Houston or Harold or Barrett to what’s already there. Now you have a rotation of useful guys.

I do like the idea of Eli Harold here.

[st33lersguy]

Would have to pay a lot to what seems like an injury prone player. And this after paying $4 million to an utterly useless olb and $9.2 million to a mediocre edge rusher

[DesertSteel]

The guy who played a reduced percentage of snaps because his body is breaking down and the guy with 9 NFL snaps?

That’s your plan? That’s a big ass bet on a low pair.
Half a Houston is better than a full Dupree. Plus perhaps he could be had on an incentive laden deal. And it’s not like Dupree is always healthy either.

[Shoes]

Half a Houston is better than a full Dupree. Plus perhaps he could be had on an incentive-laden deal.


:lol:

[Steeldude]

Half a Houston is better than a full Dupree. Plus perhaps he could be had on an incentive laden deal. And it’s not like Dupree is always healthy either.

https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0342/0081/products/MattHouston_S1_2017VEI_large.jpg?v=1499002904

Even this Houston outshines the useless Dupree.

[Shoes]

Might go to the Rat Birds?

https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/15/ravens-new-safety-earl-thomas-already-recruiting-pass-rusher-justin-houston/

[teegre]

Might go to the Rat Birds?

https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/2019/03/15/ravens-new-safety-earl-thomas-already-recruiting-pass-rusher-justin-houston/

That is logical... for all parties involved.

[Born2Steel]

How did Justin Houston fare against the Steelers last season?

[teegre]

How did Justin Houston fare against the Steelers last season?

4 tackles

[tube517]

To the Colts

1108819523304603650

[Mojouw]

Daaaayyyyyuuuuuum. That is a great deal of money for I'm not sure what. Is Houston old and breaking down or just had a roughish year and it will all be fine?

[Born2Steel]

Daaaayyyyyuuuuuum. That is a great deal of money for I'm not sure what. Is Houston old and breaking down or just had a roughish year and it will all be fine?

Yep. This is why you grin and pay Dupree $9M and Chickillo $4M.

[steelreserve]

Yep. This is why you grin and pay Dupree $9M and Chickillo $4M.

"Other people fucked up, so that's why it's good that we fucked up even WORSE!"

[Born2Steel]

"Other people fucked up, so that's why it's good that we fucked up even WORSE!"

Ummm.....no. The price of FA over the hill talent is what's fucked up. Does anyone on here even remember Ladarius Green?

[steelreserve]

Ummm.....no. The price of FA over the hill talent is what's fucked up. Does anyone on here even remember Ladarius Green?

The price we paid for two known useless players is actually higher, that's what's fucked up. At least there's like a 1-in-3 chance the Colts get something of value. We straight-up threw $13 million in the garbage can.

Green was not even in the same ballpark, we paid him something like $4 million total. That was a pretty low-risk move that unfortunately didn't pay out.

[st33lersguy]

Keep in mind the Colts did enter with the most cap space in the NFL, so they have the money to spend. Justin Houston may be past his prime but I would still take him over a thoroughly mediocre yet somehow overrated Bud Dupree and an utterly useless Anthony Chickillo at $4 million

[hawaiiansteeler]

an utterly useless Anthony Chickillo at $4 million

the Patriots* offered Chickillo the same amount of $$$, he must not be useless...

[steelreserve]

the Patriots* offered Chickillo the same amount of $$$, he must not be useless...

Being highly paid does not make you a better player. He's looked pretty useless to me other than on special teams, which you cannot pay $4M for.

[Born2Steel]

The price we paid for two known useless players is actually higher, that's what's fucked up. At least there's like a 1-in-3 chance the Colts get something of value. We straight-up threw $13 million in the garbage can.

Green was not even in the same ballpark, we paid him something like $4 million total. That was a pretty low-risk move that unfortunately didn't pay out.

The difference seems to be that I don’t view those 2 as a waste of money. Letting those 2 walk in hopes of getting a Justin Houston would not have cost $12M a season had that been the case. Because we had nobody the cost would have been closer to the CJ Mosely $17M per season instead. Not a prediction of actual money just pointing out it is not apples to apples.

Plus the Ladarius Green point is these players are damaged goods. And we have no idea to what extent. You simply don’t throw that amount of money at FA with mileage. It doesn’t work more often than it does.