Crunching the Numbers: 2018 Steelers rushing statistics

[Shoes]

A comparison of the Steelers’ 2018 rushing statistics to past seasons and the rest of the league.

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2019/1/22/18190055/crunching-the-numbers-2018-steelers-rushing-statistics-james-conner-jaylen-samuels-nfl-news

[Born2Steel]

Easy to point at numbers and say this is what these mean. How many games did the Steelers play from behind or up by a score or less, where they simply weren’t able to rely on running the ball? That needs to be part of the formula as well. Should the Steelers have rushed more? Probably yes. But there were plenty of teams that ran the ball more and for more yards that still didn’t make the post season. A lot of what happens during a season is situational football. Using analytics can only take it so far. The rest is just making plays.

[Edman]

The Steelers threw away the running game and offensive balance, even when it was working, and it was the time of the year where running games and balanced offenses are highly important. The biggest damning point was Denver, where despite facing a horrendous run Defense, the Steelers kept throwing.

This is why Randy Fichtner is referred to as a "puppet" and people believe that he gladly toss offensive balance out the window to make Ben and the receivers happy.\


How many games did the Steelers play from behind or up by a score or less,

During "The Collapse" (Post-Jacksonville), there was only one game where the Steelers were down by a significant margin, the Saints game. The others, they held a lead.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Easy to point at numbers and say this is what these mean. How many games did the Steelers play from behind or up by a score or less, where they simply weren’t able to rely on running the ball? That needs to be part of the formula as well. Should the Steelers have rushed more? Probably yes. But there were plenty of teams that ran the ball more and for more yards that still didn’t make the post season. A lot of what happens during a season is situational football. Using analytics can only take it so far. The rest is just making plays.

Steelers 20- JAX 16...….only 9 rushes by Connor and the Jags had 9-0 lead on 3 successive FG drives. No time to abandon the run

DEN 24- Steelers 17......13 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed by more than 1 score at any point

LAC 33 Steelers 30...…..15 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed until the 4th quarter. (right there is rationale to run the ball and win the game)

NO 31 Steelers 28...…….13 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers trailed 17-14 at half and largest margin was 24-14. Never out of reach to abandon run game.

Raiders 24 Steelers 21......11 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers never trailed by more than 4 points in the game.

Above are all games where the Steelers abandoned the run game, despite being in close games and having 3 pro bowl offensive linemen on the roster. This wasn't a case of where the Steelers needed to pass substantially more than they run, its a case where they chose to run much less than they chose to pass.

[Edman]

Steelers 20- JAX 16...….only 9 rushes by Connor and the Jags had 9-0 lead on 3 successive FG drives. No time to abandon the run

DEN 24- Steelers 17......13 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed by more than 1 score at any point

LAC 33 Steelers 30...…..15 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed until the 4th quarter. (right there is rationale to run the ball and win the game)

NO 31 Steelers 28...…….13 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers trailed 17-14 at half and largest margin was 24-14. Never out of reach to abandon run game.

Raiders 24 Steelers 21......11 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers never trailed by more than 4 points in the game.

Above are all games where the Steelers abandoned the run game, despite being in close games and having 3 pro bowl offensive linemen on the roster. This wasn't a case of where the Steelers needed to pass substantially more than they run, its a case where they chose to run much less than they chose to pass.

Also in the only win in that stretch (Patriots), Jaylen Samuels ran 19 times for 142 yards.

[Craic]

Steelers 20- JAX 16...….only 9 rushes by Connor and the Jags had 9-0 lead on 3 successive FG drives. No time to abandon the run

DEN 24- Steelers 17......13 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed by more than 1 score at any point

LAC 33 Steelers 30...…..15 rushes by Conner and the Steelers never trailed until the 4th quarter. (right there is rationale to run the ball and win the game)

NO 31 Steelers 28...…….13 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers trailed 17-14 at half and largest margin was 24-14. Never out of reach to abandon run game.

Raiders 24 Steelers 21......11 rushes by Samuels and the Steelers never trailed by more than 4 points in the game.

Above are all games where the Steelers abandoned the run game, despite being in close games and having 3 pro bowl offensive linemen on the roster. This wasn't a case of where the Steelers needed to pass substantially more than they run, its a case where they chose to run much less than they chose to pass.

Funny how those stats paint a picture that is disjointed from reality.

Jax.


First series. Conner rushes for 2 yards. Now, it's 2nd and 8. Ben throws for 7 yards. Third down . . . rush or pass? Out of the gate, Jax will expect rush. So pass. They did, for no gain.
Second series. Conner gets stopped first play for 2 yards. However, there's a penalty on Jax, so it's first and 10 again. Run for 9 yards. However, it was out of the Shotgun. it's a draw (pass sets up the run). Penalty then puts us at 2 and 6. Conner hasn't yet shown the ability to run through the line in this game (draw play is trickery, not power running). Passes were incomplete.
Third series. Pass incomplete. Second down, Conner up the middle for -1 yard. Third down. Incomplete pass.
Fourth series. INT first play
Fifth series. 41 seconds left. Two minute mode these are all passes as normal.

Second half.


1st series. Conner up the middle. 2 yards. Ben up the middle for three yards. Now, it's 3rd and 5. Pass or run? Conner is virtually unable to run more than 2 yards so far in this game unless we go shotgun. And then, once. We pass. Incomple.
Second series. First play. Penalty on Jax. Second play. Conner for 3 yards. Penalty on Jax. Third play. Pass. Fourth play, 2 and 6, Conner up the middle for 7 yards. First down. So, we go to him again. No gain. Next play is an INT.
Third series. Penalty on offense. 1st and 15. Pass play. 6 yards. 2 and 9. Pass play. 78 yard TD.
Fourth series. Pass for three yards. INC. pass. Sack.
Fifth series, sixth, and seventh series. At this point, the Steelers are down by 10 points with only 10 minutes left in the game. So, we pass, pass, pass for the next three series. The result? Turnover on downs, TD. TD.

So, let's see. First two series, they come out with the rush. Both times, the rush puts them in a possible bad situation. Thankfully, the second time was a penalty, so they play some trickery to get Conner going. He gets nine yards. There were only three more plays before the two-minute drill. Second half, They start off with Conner again. Once again, 2 yards. it puts us behind the 8ball again, so we pass to make up the yards. Then, we see Conner get 10 yards on two rushes. Great! So we give himn the ball again on first down and he is stopped at LOS. Again, we're behind the 8 ball on yards v. downs.

From that point on, we went strickly to the pass and saw a TD, punt. Turnover on downs. TD. TD.
Now, explain to me how we were supposed to give Conner more opportunities in that game. He wasn't getting it done on first down, and seldom on second down. Abandoning the run is what won the game for us.

Denver.

First series, all passes. In order: 14 yards, 9 yards, 5 yards, 10 yards. incom. 7 yards. 12 yards. A Brown pass incomp. incomp. incomp.
Second series. Conner, 2 yards. Yep, behind the ball again. Run (shotgun-Switzer) 4 yards. After three more short passes, Conner goes up the middle for 2 yards ona 3rd and 1. Good to see. Note only two yards, but on short yardage situation, that is understandable (maybe). Next four plays, conner gets 6 yards and 3 yards. Then, we mix it up. Conner gets three runs for 3, 6, and 3. Ben throws for 3, 6, and 23 and a TD if Grimble isn't an idiot.
Third series. Conner gets a good run for 6. But Ben is on fire. 8-8 for 55 yards. Unfortunately, a couple were called back or we took the penalty that gave us more yards. BUt that was his literal production. We didn't "abandon" the run. Ben was just on fire. You go with the hot hand.
Four series, second half. Four minute drill. 1 rush. 2 yards on first down that puts us behind the yards/downs again. Still, Ben goes 9-10 for 75 yards. These last two series, he's 17-18 for 130 yards and a TD.

Second half.


Incomp. Pass. Conner goes for 8, but a penalty puts us at 2nd and 15. We have to pass. end up punting.
Second series. 1 pass. 97 yard TD.
Third series. Conner has four rushes. 11 yards, 4 yards, 8 yards, 0 yards. We're now 2nd and 10. Ben hits for 7 yards. Then we get an INT.
Fourth series is all passes (ben scrambled, but it was a pass play). However, 6 yards. 4 yards, 13 yards, and then a penalty puts us at 1st and 15. We pass and get a defen. holding. 1st and 10. Ben sacked. Next is a short pass to Conner, who fumbles.
Now, we abandon Conner (er, the run). Well, except for once. Conner got 1 yard.



Here, Ben has the hot hand. Conner fumbles at a key moment in a game, so you give Ben the ball and tell him to go win it for us. And, he almost did.


I'm not going to go through the rest of the games step by step, but in my memory, they all played out like these. Conner was not capable of sustaining runs except for here and there. It put the onus on Ben to make up the yards. In each game, the offense finally put the Onus on Ben to win because Conner wasn't able to pull his weight. (I don't blame him. Personally, I think he essentially hit he rookie wall since this was his first full year. And, those fumbles really messed with his confidence).

So, yeah, we were heavy on the pass. But it's not like we didn't push the run. We did, until it didn't work or Ben's passing hand was too hot to ignore. This "Get back to the run to win" noise is nothing more than nostalgia during a time of turmoil, imo. After all, when you look at the four teams in the Championship games. you have a 3rd in the Rams and 6th in rush in KC. But you also have a 17th in rush in New Orleans and 20th in the Pats* (all ypa). When you go to attempts, it might look different as the number 2, 5, and 8 teams attempt the rush were in the CGs, but KC was 23rd. And, I'd wager many of the attempts for the first three came when they were closing out games. Something our coaches got pounded for when they'd start running the ball early on in the year in the second half.

EDIT: And we can't foget Conner was tied for 2nd place for most fumbles by a RB this year. Not someone I want with the ball when the game's on the line, because those fumbles happen much closer to our own end zone than INTs often do (Ben had 0 fumbles).

[Edman]

Third series. Conner gets a good run for 6. But Ben is on fire. 8-8 for 55 yards. Unfortunately, a couple were called back or we took the penalty that gave us more yards. BUt that was his literal production. We didn't "abandon" the run. Ben was just on fire. You go with the hot hand.

Went with the "hot hand", only scored 17 points and lost the game.

Also, your analysis also proves why the Steelers need to run more effectively. We saw what happened when Ben got the ball in his hands and has to carry the show.

2019 needs a better focus on balanced offense.

[Craic]

Went with the "hot hand", only scored 17 points and lost the game.

Also, your analysis also proves why the Steelers need to run more effectively. We saw what happened when Ben got the ball in his hands and has to carry the show.

2019 needs a better focus on balanced offense.

Nope. My analysis proves the opposite (and that Conner was a liability for most of two games). We lost the game in Denver because a TE tried to truck a guy and lost the football. That's seven points off the board. AB's trick pass was a yard too long. It was a sure TD had he thrown in bounds. That's 14 points. Conner coughs up the ball and Denver gets a TD. That's 21 points that has nothing to do with Ben throwing the ball. It does, however, have something to do with Conner not being able to guard the ball. And, you wanted to give the ball to him MORE?

Sorry, but a twenty-one point swing on mistakes that have nothing to do with Ben disproves this has anything to do with how much we ran the ball vs. threw the ball. (And, Conner was a runner when he fumbled the ball. So although it occurred on a pass play, it isn't the pass that caused the fumble).

[Edman]

Nope. My analysis proves the opposite (and that Conner was a liability for most of two games). We lost the game in Denver because a TE tried to truck a guy and lost the football. That's seven points off the board. AB's trick pass was a yard too long. It was a sure TD had he thrown in bounds. That's 14 points. Conner coughs up the ball and Denver gets a TD. That's 21 points that has nothing to do with Ben throwing the ball. It does, however, have something to do with Conner not being able to guard the ball. And, you wanted to give the ball to him MORE?

Sorry, but a twenty-one point swing on mistakes that have nothing to do with Ben disproves this has anything to do with how much we ran the ball vs. threw the ball. (And, Conner was a runner when he fumbled the ball. So although it occurred on a pass play, it isn't the pass that caused the fumble).

It wasn't Conner or Xavier Grimble who threw the game-losing interception (to a defensive lineman no less) and proceeded to blame Antonio Brown in the media. Even though it was a horrible pass that didn't stand a chance.

Went with the "hot hand" and lost the game.

[Born2Steel]

You have to see the bigger picture. Ben threw more INTs this past season than all other QBs. He also threw more passes last season than usual and for more yards than usual. What did stay usual was his INT/attempt ratio. Were some of those INTs directly Ben’s fault? Sure, absolutely. But didn’t Conner and Grimble have untimely fumbles as well?

[86WARD]

Ifs, ands or buts go both ways. If Denver would’ve, if Phillip Lindsey would’ve...good teams overcome.

[HollywoodSteel]

It wasn't Conner or Xavier Grimble who threw the game-losing interception (to a defensive lineman no less) and proceeded to blame Antonio Brown in the media. Even though it was a horrible pass that didn't stand a chance.

Went with the "hot hand" and lost the game.

I’ll blame Ben for most picks. But that one was a fluke. AB did run the wrong route, but the real fluke was that the DL was blocked way too well for a passing play. He didn’t drop back, he was BLOCKED INTO POSITION to make the pic. I can’t blame Ben for not seeing that coming,

[zulater]

I say make a big run at UFA Kareem Hunt. I know he comes with some baggage. I know he's facing a 6 game suspension. But he's one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league. Seeing as we're about to lose two of those sort I can't see why not go this way? I'll take a 23 year old dynamo with baggage who's probably at his most humbled over either of our departing diva's. And yes I know what he did. And I also know the police didn't arrest him nor do they plan to, because what he did was stupid but not over the top on a violence level.

Have at me. :lol:

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I say make a big run at UFA Kareem Hunt. I know he comes with some baggage. I know he's facing a 6 game suspension. But he's one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league. Seeing as we're about to lose two of those sort I can't see why not go this way? I'll take a 23 year old dynamo with baggage who's probably at his most humbled over either of our departing diva's. And yes I know what he did. And I also know the police didn't arrest him nor do they plan to, because what he did was stupid but not over the top on a violence level.

Have at me. :lol:

I think if Hunt is rehabilitating and getting counselling, that I am OK with the Steelers trying to sign him.

Tyreek Hill plead guilty to punching and choking his pregnant girlfriend, yet he is still a KC Chief and was on probation for 3 years. I don't see why Hunt should not get a chance to make amends, get counselling and resume his career.

[DesertSteel]

I'll take a pass on Hunt............ Let him rehabilitate some place else.

[86WARD]

I say make a big run at UFA Kareem Hunt. I know he comes with some baggage. I know he's facing a 6 game suspension. But he's one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league. Seeing as we're about to lose two of those sort I can't see why not go this way? I'll take a 23 year old dynamo with baggage who's probably at his most humbled over either of our departing diva's. And yes I know what he did. And I also know the police didn't arrest him nor do they plan to, because what he did was stupid but not over the top on a violence level.

Have at me. :lol:

I’d go to arbitration to try to tag Bell first. Work that out via trade or what have you to get more than the third round pick. I’d keep AB. Time will heal all wounds. I’d give up picks for Ramsey. Let Jax write the deal and After that was done, I’d offer a team friendly deal to Hunt.