Tomlin On Fake Punt Decision: ‘I Just Wanted To Be Aggressive’

[Lady Steel]

The Pittsburgh Steelers failed to convert a late fake punt attempt in their Sunday road loss to the New Orleans Saints and after the game was over head coach Mike Tomlin defended his decision to run the unsuccessful play in question.

“I just wanted to be aggressive,” Tomlin said during his post-game press conference when asked to explain his rationale of running that fake punt play. “I wanted to ensure that we had an opportunity to win the game. First of all, I liked the play, the concept. I thought we had a chance to get it. But I thought where the game was and the time in which was left in the game, I thought that if we did not stop them, that we will have an opportunity to have the ball last. And we did, but obviously unsuccessful nonetheless.”

The fake punt came on a 4th and 5 from the Steelers 42-yard-line with 4:11 left in the fourth quarter and the Steelers leading 28-24. The direct snap went to fullback Roosevelt Nix to the left side after the team’s up-back, safety Jordan Dangerfield, motioned out to the right. Nix attempted to run up the middle after getting the direct snap and while he did initially break through the line of scrimmage, he was ultimately tackled just short of the line-to-make.


https://steelersdepot.com/2018/12/tomlin-on-fake-punt-decision-i-just-wanted-to-be-aggressive/

[Fire Goodell]

I actually don't disagree with this call. Short field = less time they'd burn. If we punted I think our offense wouldn't have seen the ball again.

[Shoes]

I actually don't disagree with this call. Short field = less time they'd burn. If we punted I think our offense wouldn't have seen the ball again.

I do because it was a 4th and 5, that's too much ground to cover against this defense imo

[lipps83]

I think the call would have been a perfect call on 4th and 3, but at 5 yards it would be tough to make with a run designed fake. At 4th and 5 the Saints weren't really going to expect a fake at all, so I get why he called it. It was a ballsy call where a fake was a very good call. He probably went with a run play over pass, because a pass play depends on many variables to work where the run is a safer bet, but more ground to cover.

It just looks worse because it didn't pan out. If it worked, everyone would call him a genius. It didn't so people think he should be fired.

I do see both sides of the story here.

[GBMelBlount]

I actually don't disagree with this call. Short field = less time they'd burn. If we punted I think our offense wouldn't have seen the ball again.

Though surprised, I had NO problem with his call.

With a short field we get the ball back with time on the clock vs. a long drive by Brees that chews up the entire clock.

In this day and age, having the ball last with time in a close game is as important as whether you are winning or losing.

[fansince'76]

Hmmm...let the defense try and win it with a long field or try to give Roethlisberger time to try to win it? No-brainer there. Agree with the call.

[Lady Steel]

1077019257693556738


Shut up, Tomlin, just shut up! :blah::blah::blah:

[Shoes]

If super bowls were won by the BS that comes out of a coaches mouth the Steelers would be champs every year.

[DesertSteel]

Mike Tomlin defends every blade of grass and every stupid decision he makes. The act has worn thin with me.

[Shoes]

and by the way, whoever called the play with the Ridley (right off the bench) fumble was another classic. Kinda like taking DHB off the bench and throwing deep to him double covered in the end zone.

[FrancoLambert]

Being aggressive or being smart are your choices.

It’s a do or die play, you make it, you’re a genius with guts....you miss it, well...you give the Saints momentum and a very short field which essentially gives them the game.

Needing 5 yards for the first down was too much of a gamble.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I disagree with the call. Saints scored on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, then nothing....until Steelers gave them the football back on the Steelers 46 yard line.

Kick the football and if you net around 40 yards on the punt, then the Saints have to go approx 85 yards to score, not 46 yards. If on the other side of the 50 yard line, then I think its a better risk, but if you are gonna go for it, then just line up and put the football in #7 hands....not #45.

[86WARD]

5 yards is too far. Your defense was doing a good job of slowing Brees to a point...you gave Brees a short field and as the game flow was going considering the penalties, he should’ve known better. It was one of his worst calls and pretty much wraps up the season...

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

and by the way, whoever called the play with the Ridley (right off the bench) fumble was another classic. Kinda like taking DHB off the bench and throwing deep to him double covered in the end zone.

Agree, if you are gonna run that football with Ridley, then split out AB and JuJu at least to spread the field a bit more and get a TE of FB in motion. Just handing the ball to Ridley with around 20 other guys crowded around the LOS was just a dumb play.

[j-d-s]

I actually don't disagree with this call. Short field = less time they'd burn. If we punted I think our offense wouldn't have seen the ball again.
Exactly. The only alternative probably would have been leaving the offense on the field and then going for it.

We lost because we got jobbed by the refs with that imaginary pass interference on Haden on 4th Down.

Juju's fumble of course ended it, he was in field goal range. But fact is, the Saints got gifted 7 points by the refs so it should have never come down to that.

I'd even say that this was one of the best coached games by Tomlin, even his typical time management errors didn't occur. The only questionable calls are abandoning the running game, and giving that 3rd down carry to Ridley.

[lipps83]

I disagree with the call. Saints scored on the first drive of the 3rd quarter, then nothing....until Steelers gave them the football back on the Steelers 46 yard line.

Kick the football and if you net around 40 yards on the punt, then the Saints have to go approx 85 yards to score, not 46 yards. If on the other side of the 50 yard line, then I think its a better risk, but if you are gonna go for it, then just line up and put the football in #7 hands....not #45.

The problem with that though is that if the Saints scored (and they would have, you know it and I know it and Tomlin knows it, they are playing against Butler, king of giving up last minute points) there would have been no time left for the Steelers to at least match.

It was the right call, I just wonder if pass would have been better, albeit it has a much higher risk of not working.

[Born2Steel]

It was an aggressive call to be sure. If it works I think we score again. The defense had been playing well enough that I don't have a problem with counting on them to keep the Saints out of the endzone. If not for the JuJu fumble we probably at least attempt a FG for the win even after that. I have no issue with the call, other than I wish it had worked.

[vader29]

1077019257693556738


Shut up, Tomlin, just shut up! :blah::blah::blah:

1077007419128102913

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

The problem with that though is that if the Saints scored (and they would have, you know it and I know it and Tomlin knows it, they are playing against Butler, king of giving up last minute points) there would have been no time left for the Steelers to at least match.

It was the right call, I just wonder if pass would have been better, albeit it has a much higher risk of not working.

None of us knows if the Saints would have scored. We don't have a Doc Brown time machine. They had not scored since the opening drive of the 3rd quarter.

You wonder if putting the ball in Ben's hands, with 3 Pro Bowl offensive linemen in front of him and great receiving weapons would have been better than a Danny Smith drawn up fake to Rosie NiX for 5 yards??? Yes, it would have.

I like Tomlin, but if your opinion is that you wanted to be aggressive, then put the ball in #7's hands and go be aggressive. Fake to Nix with 5 yards to go is a punk move, not an aggressive move. Too scared to put the ball in the hands of your best playmaker and go mano et mano…..too scared to admit to the media that you made a bitch call is what Tomlin did.

[NCSteeler]

Dumb dumb dumb. Defense playing good. You kick it deep and defend. Fuck you Tomlin you out coached yourself

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[Shoes]

1077007419128102913



:toofunny:

[Lady Steel]

1077007419128102913


:lol:

[zulater]

Honestly at 4th and 5 I don't like the call. But I wont dwell on it. I can see what the thinking was behind it.

However giving the ball to Ridley on 3rd and 2 at the Saints 34 up 4 points, I find to be indefensible. The guy wasn't in the flow whatsoever to that point. 2 carries for 3 yards I think. Had already been benched earlier in the season for a fumble. Ben had just led consecutive TD drives. Was red hot. Had completed his last 8 passes. And you put the ball in Ridley's hands? WTF???!!!

[Craic]

Honestly? There was very little to no downside to that call. If they make it, then the keep the ball and drive. If they don't, then what happens? Either they stop the Saints or they let them score, which is what happened.

Now, at this point, We have the ball with enough time left on the clock to drive and either tie or win the game. Why did we have this time? Because the Saints scored too early. Why did they do so? Because they played a short field.

Had we punted, with the way our defense plays in the last two minutes of a game, they would have still scored most likely, and they would've done it with about 0-30 seconds left on the clock giving us no chance at all after.

I thought at the moment it was a great call for the simple reason that it plays the odds and we have 2 chances to win vs. 1 chance to lose. We win by stopping them on a short field (they needed a TD, making even more viable). Or, we win by driving for the win. Our losing comes at our own hands.

Or, we kick. And based on this season, we have probably a 70 percent chance of letting them drive to win based on this season. In fact, the only time I think I remember them stopping a game-winning drive is against the Pats*.

So, what would I rather have? Go for it and a chance to control the game. Take the risk and still try to stop them. And then if they do score, I put the ball in my QB's hands, a potential HOF QB and two of the best WRs currently in the league.

Yeah, Not too worried about that decision. In fact, along with the timeouts, I think it was his best display of controlling the clock and playing the odds in a very long time.

[st33lersguy]

4th and 5, you snap it to the fullback and have him go up the middle around midfield. If the standard is close to the bottom right now. The last 5 weeks, and the only win was thanks to bringing in outside help. Right now, I wouldn't trust Tomlin with a lemonade stand

[Rotorhead]

I disagree with that call, like already stated, if you are going to be aggressive, leave the off in there, otherwise make them drive Dow. The field and score a TD. He gave the best offense in the NFL the ball at midfield, that was a game loser right there.

[Craic]

I disagree with that call, like already stated, if you are going to be aggressive, leave the off in there, otherwise make them drive Dow. The field and score a TD. He gave the best offense in the NFL the ball at midfield, that was a game loser right there.
As for keeping the offense on, sure. There's an argument for that. I was talking more about the idea of going for it at that point.

[GBMelBlount]

Great post.


Honestly? There was very little to no downside to that call. If they make it, then the keep the ball and drive. If they don't, then what happens? Either they stop the Saints or they let them score, which is what happened.

Now, at this point, We have the ball with enough time left on the clock to drive and either tie or win the game. Why did we have this time? Because the Saints scored too early. Why did they do so? Because they played a short field.

Had we punted, with the way our defense plays in the last two minutes of a game, they would have still scored most likely, and they would've done it with about 0-30 seconds left on the clock giving us no chance at all after.

I thought at the moment it was a great call for the simple reason that it plays the odds and we have 2 chances to win vs. 1 chance to lose. We win by stopping them on a short field (they needed a TD, making even more viable). Or, we win by driving for the win. Our losing comes at our own hands.

Or, we kick. And based on this season, we have probably a 70 percent chance of letting them drive to win based on this season. In fact, the only time I think I remember them stopping a game-winning drive is against the Pats*.

So, what would I rather have? Go for it and a chance to control the game. Take the risk and still try to stop them. And then if they do score, I put the ball in my QB's hands, a potential HOF QB and two of the best WRs currently in the league.

Yeah, Not too worried about that decision. In fact, along with the timeouts, I think it was his best display of controlling the clock and playing the odds in a very long time.

[FrancoLambert]

Honestly? There was very little to no downside to that call. If they make it, then the keep the ball and drive. If they don't, then what happens? Either they stop the Saints or they let them score, which is what happened.

Now, at this point, We have the ball with enough time left on the clock to drive and either tie or win the game. Why did we have this time? Because the Saints scored too early. Why did they do so? Because they played a short field.

Had we punted, with the way our defense plays in the last two minutes of a game, they would have still scored most likely, and they would've done it with about 0-30 seconds left on the clock giving us no chance at all after.

I thought at the moment it was a great call for the simple reason that it plays the odds and we have 2 chances to win vs. 1 chance to lose. We win by stopping them on a short field (they needed a TD, making even more viable). Or, we win by driving for the win. Our losing comes at our own hands.

Or, we kick. And based on this season, we have probably a 70 percent chance of letting them drive to win based on this season. In fact, the only time I think I remember them stopping a game-winning drive is against the Pats*.

So, what would I rather have? Go for it and a chance to control the game. Take the risk and still try to stop them. And then if they do score, I put the ball in my QB's hands, a potential HOF QB and two of the best WRs currently in the league.

Yeah, Not too worried about that decision. In fact, along with the timeouts, I think it was his best display of controlling the clock and playing the odds in a very long time.

”Very little to no downside to the fake punt call.”
REALLY?
We saw the downside. :noidea:

[Mojouw]

THe math says that all kicking on 4th downs is not in your favor. I like the call. I would rather have a coach who tries and fails to step on another teams throat and put them down then a coach who plays outdated percentages.

[zulater]

THe math says that all kicking on 4th downs is not in your favor. I like the call. I would rather have a coach who tries and fails to step on another teams throat and put them down then a coach who plays outdated percentages.

I would have liked that call a lot more if it had been 4th and 2 or 3. 4th and a long 5 was not the time to get cute.

[Mojouw]

I would have liked that call a lot more if it had been 4th and 2 or 3. 4th and a long 5 was not the time to get cute.
I get where you are coming from and I am not saying your wrong. I’m just saying that for me, Id make that call every time if I was given the chance and I like a coach that does the same thing.

[FrancoLambert]

Just saw ESPN’s recap of the game and the replay of the fake punt.
Seems like our coaches liked the idea of Matakevich being able to take out an interior lineman to open the hole for Nix.
:der:

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

I get where you are coming from and I am not saying your wrong. I’m just saying that for me, Id make that call every time if I was given the chance and I like a coach that does the same thing.

OK, but you seem to like statistics. There must be a statistic on the number of times a fake punt of 5 yards or more is successful. Can you dig it up and let us know the percentages?

[steelcityboyz]

1077019257693556738


Shut up, Tomlin, just shut up! :blah::blah::blah::iagree::high5:

[zulater]

The 3 previous possessions for the Saints before the fake punt resulted in 12 plays about 50 yards and 0 points. Last week the defense stopped the Patriots offense at the end of the game. I don't think that was a good call. Our best chance to win would have been to make them start that possession from deep inside their own territory. Again if it's less than 2 yards to go for the first I can probably get behind the call. But that play was too slow developing to expect it to gain 5 yards.

[ALLD]

IF they needed 5 yard Ben should have been passing the ball instead of that abortion.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

IF they needed 5 yard Ben should have been passing the ball instead of that abortion. So true.

Many of the comments I have heard on sports talk radio today saying the same. Put the ball in the hands of Ben, AB, JuJu and that O line protection.....instead of running the A gap with a FB to try and get 6 yards.

[Mojouw]

OK, but you seem to like statistics. There must be a statistic on the number of times a fake punt of 5 yards or more is successful. Can you dig it up and let us know the percentages?

Why bother? There is a mountain of research that demonstrates that kicking ever is only serving to lower your chances of winning.

Point wasn't that it was a high percentage play. Point was that it was an aggressive potentially game winning call.

Kinda like when a certain beatified former coach opened the second half of the SB with an onsides kick.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Why bother? There is a mountain of research that demonstrates that kicking ever is only serving to lower your chances of winning.

Point wasn't that it was a high percentage play. Point was that it was an aggressive potentially game winning call.

Kinda like when a certain beatified former coach opened the second half of the SB with an onsides kick.

The point that you said, "I'd make that call every time if I was given the chance", seems to be contradictory to your affinity and reliance on statistics. The likelihood that its a very low percentage play and your assertion that you would make the call every time is basically saying that if you were coach you would choose to make that low percentage of success play call 100% of the time.

That just makes no sense, as the higher percentage play is likely to kick it away and let your defense that stopped Tom Brady on last minute drive last week, try and do the same thing to the Saints. Or the possibly higher percentage play is to give your future HOF QB a chance to make a play to either your prized 2nd year receiver, or the future HOF receiver (#84).

[Mojouw]

The point that you said, "I'd make that call every time if I was given the chance", seems to be contradictory to your affinity and reliance on statistics. The likelihood that its a very low percentage play and your assertion that you would make the call every time is basically saying that if you were coach you would choose to make that low percentage of success play call 100% of the time.

That just makes no sense, as the higher percentage play is likely to kick it away and let your defense that stopped Tom Brady on last minute drive last week, try and do the same thing to the Saints. Or the possibly higher percentage play is to give your future HOF QB a chance to make a play to either your prized 2nd year receiver, or the future HOF receiver (#84).

Stats and data say NEVER pint or kick FG. Google around and you can find the information.


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[FrancoLambert]

Stats and data be damned in this case.

It was a low percentage call, it was a poorly selected play, it handed the Saints excellent field position.....no surprise it failed miserably and contributed significantly to the loss.

But call it again, we’ll do it better next time.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Stats and data say NEVER pint or kick FG. Google around and you can find the information.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Well I guess that settles it. Since there is data to say NEVER punt of kick a FG, then there really was no place in the NFL for guys like Adam Vinitiari, Morten Andersen, Matt Bahr, Ray Guy, etc.

[Craic]

Stats and data be damned in this case.

It was a low percentage call, it was a poorly selected play, it handed the Saints excellent field position.....no surprise it failed miserably and contributed significantly to the loss.

But call it again, we’ll do it better next time.
That's where we disagree. The low percent is not based only on that play. It's on that play plus the ability of the Steelers too score again if they don't stop the saints vs. kicking the ball and then the ability of the defense to stop the offense. Personally, I rather have them try to stop them on a half field and then even have the ball again if they don't stop them. And, the way PI was being called, I'd guess they probably wouldn't.

[Mojouw]

That's where we disagree. The low percent is not based only on that play. It's on that play plus the ability of the Steelers too score again if they don't stop the saints vs. kicking the ball and then the ability of the defense to stop the offense. Personally, I rather have them try to stop them on a half field and then even have the ball again if they don't stop them. And, the way PI was being called, I'd guess they probably wouldn't.
Agreed. It is a series of linked decisions. If they make the fake, then the game is almost certainly over. If they don’t the Saints may score, but the offense will have time and timeouts to respond. If they kick away, the Saints likely drive the field and score with not enough time for a miracle response drive.

- - - Updated - - -


Well I guess that settles it. Since there is data to say NEVER punt of kick a FG, then there really was no place in the NFL for guys like Adam Vinitiari, Morten Andersen, Matt Bahr, Ray Guy, etc.

Look, I didn’t say that you had to agree with it or even that I did. But you got all fussy about data and stats to counter my opinion that I would always choose the hyper aggressive option. I just was expressing that people have looked into it, ran models, crunched the numbers, etc etc and the answer is unequivocal that you have a better chance of winning football games by always going for the fourth down conversion regardless of situation and distance. Now, other models have refined this concept and attempted to contextualize when to go for it and when not too.

Personally, I could care less what the#s say. I want a coach who is going to be super aggressive at all times. I would coach the same way, win lose or draw. Doesnt make it the best or right way to approach the situation, but I would go for it on that 4th down 100 out of 100 times. And I’m not even saying that is the right call, but it is my personal preference.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Agreed. It is a series of linked decisions. If they make the fake, then the game is almost certainly over. If they don’t the Saints may score, but the offense will have time and timeouts to respond. If they kick away, the Saints likely drive the field and score with not enough time for a miracle response drive.

- - - Updated - - -



Look, I didn’t say that you had to agree with it or even that I did. But you got all fussy about data and stats to counter my opinion that I would always choose the hyper aggressive option. I just was expressing that people have looked into it, ran models, crunched the numbers, etc etc and the answer is unequivocal that you have a better chance of winning football games by always going for the fourth down conversion regardless of situation and distance. Now, other models have refined this concept and attempted to contextualize when to go for it and when not too.

Personally, I could care less what the#s say. I want a coach who is going to be super aggressive at all times. I would coach the same way, win lose or draw. Doesnt make it the best or right way to approach the situation, but I would go for it on that 4th down 100 out of 100 times. And I’m not even saying that is the right call, but it is my personal preference.

Sorry, I was not intending to be aggressive, but rather I really thought that you have an affinity for finding statistics on things, as that seems to be of interest to you. I was hoping that you would be able to find a statistical probability of the success of 4th down fake punt plays of 5 yards or more.

But when you assert that stats say to NEVER kick the football, it just seems illogical or honestly discredits the entire notion of using stats. We all know that special teams are an important part of the game and if statistical models say to NEVER kick, then they are all crap IMO.

As for the topic. IMO and a lot of other football people, reporters, retired players all seem to think that Tomlin's call was a poor decision. Its kind of like if those great 70's and 80's Steelers needed to get 4th and 6 and they said to not bother letting Bradhshaw, Swann and Stallworth have a chance, but rather they should put the ball in the gut of Sidney Thornton. SMH

[Michael]

It was an absolutely horrible call. MOMENTUM is critical in football and basketball which I coached for many years. Tomlin has never understood this. I think Tomlin coaches from ego. "Fuck you Tomlin you out coached yourself". NC Steeler your 110 percent correct.

Mike Tomlin is by far the worst game day coach ever for so many reasons. Tomlin gave the Saints what they themselves had not developed momentum. My prayer is that Tomlin is planning to follow his son to University of Maryland and do something career wise, anything in that area. Just please get out of town. It has taken a long time but the man has revealed himself.

[Lady Steel]

It was an absolutely horrible call. MOMENTUM is critical in football and basketball which I coached for many years. Tomlin has never understood this. I think Tomlin coaches from ego. "Fuck you Tomlin you out coached yourself". NC Steeler your 110 percent correct.

Mike Tomlin is by far the worst game day coach ever for so many reasons. Tomlin gave the Saints what they themselves had not developed momentum. My prayer is that Tomlin is planning to follow his son to University of Maryland and do something career wise, anything in that area. Just please get out of town. It has taken a long time but the man has revealed himself.

I agree. There are so many here who are so into stats and other stupid shit that they don't look at the intangibles such as momentum, desire, drive, etc. And that's exactly why Tomlin sucks. You hit the nail on the head when you stated he coaches from ego. He's so very arrogant, and I abhor that in a man. I despise him more and more each week because he only cares about how HE looks, not what's best for the team. He can eat shit and die for all I care. I've been silent regarding Tomlin for too long, but no more. :mad:

[FrancoLambert]

Seems like a lot of the unconditional support for Tomlin’s decision has a bunch of “ifs” attached to it.

[86WARD]

There’s plenty of situational data out there that speaks to the point of why punting is beneficial to not punting.

Googling it and you will find charts, graphs, theories and more as to why or why you shouldn’t be punting or attempting FGs in this situation or that situation. Lol...

There’s endless information on it to support both sides.

[DesertSteel]

There’s plenty of situational data out there that speaks to the point of why punting is beneficial to not punting.

Googling it and you will find charts, graphs, theories and more as to why or why you shouldn’t be punting or attempting FGs in this situation or that situation. Lol...

There’s endless information on it to support both sides.
We should just hire MIT grads to be head coaches and every team would go 16-0! Lol

[hawaiiansteeler]

We should just hire MIT grads to be head coaches and every team would go 16-0! Lol

I'll bet their people skills are below the line though...

[GBMelBlount]

We should just hire MIT grads to be head coaches and every team would go 16-0! Lol

I had a client who hired an MIT PhD to develop an electronic product before us on a huge budget and it was an epic fail.

The guy was great on paper but had little hands-on experience.

The point is that while numbers crunching is important, in most cases real world experience is more valuable than any degree.

[zulater]

If you noticed after the play Nix and several other Steelers celebrated as if they converted the first down. I heard a couple of the beat reporters say they had practiced that play all week. Which would suggest they saw something in the Saints alignment that told them they were vulnerable to that working. So why the celebration afterwards when the play fell short? My theory. The play was executed successfully in the Steelers players mind because that's how it was supposed to work. In other words that was meant to be a 2-4 yard play. Mission accomplished. Except they called it on 4th and 5!:dizzy: :frusty:

[Shoes]

If you noticed after the play Nix and several other Steelers celebrated as if they converted the first down. I heard a couple of the beat reporters say they had practiced that play all week. Which would suggest they saw something in the Saints alignment that told them they were vulnerable to that working. So why the celebration afterwards when the play fell short? My theory. The play was executed successfully in the Steelers players mind because that's how it was supposed to work. In other words that was meant to be a 2-4 yard play. Mission accomplished. Except they called it on 4th and 5!:dizzy: :frusty:


:lol:

[DesertSteel]

I'll bet their people skills are below the line though...
They would (obviously) lack the bravado and rhetoric that is necessary to wear those cool shades.

[Mojouw]

Sorry, I was not intending to be aggressive, but rather I really thought that you have an affinity for finding statistics on things, as that seems to be of interest to you. I was hoping that you would be able to find a statistical probability of the success of 4th down fake punt plays of 5 yards or more.

But when you assert that stats say to NEVER kick the football, it just seems illogical or honestly discredits the entire notion of using stats. We all know that special teams are an important part of the game and if statistical models say to NEVER kick, then they are all crap IMO.

As for the topic. IMO and a lot of other football people, reporters, retired players all seem to think that Tomlin's call was a poor decision. Its kind of like if those great 70's and 80's Steelers needed to get 4th and 6 and they said to not bother letting Bradhshaw, Swann and Stallworth have a chance, but rather they should put the ball in the gut of Sidney Thornton. SMH

I wasn't either. Should've worded it differently.

FWIW there is a high school in Alabama or Arkansas who doesn't kick like ever and they win far more then they lose. It's a really interesting idea to look into.

[NCSteeler]

I get where you are coming from and I am not saying your wrong. I’m just saying that for me, Id make that call every time if I was given the chance and I like a coach that does the same thing.Like that call every time. I don't think so. Kick the ball defense was playing good .

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[NCSteeler]

It's actually quite simple. Kick the field goal, take the extra point , punt when you should. You'll win more than lose. The rest seems exciting, sometimes it works and your a hero, but most of the time do the right thing win the game. Desperate teams take risks of these types at that point in that game we were far from desperate.


BTW, second half onside kicks are not that risky considering you have the advantage of surprise and a Whole Half to make it up .

Was just a lousy play choice. Period

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[teegre]

There was a study from the University of Somewhere that studied “what if” you never punted. Essentially, it took the 3.33 yards per play needed down to 2.5 yards... which is doable by almost any running attack.

More importantly, they looked at the end of games where the QB was given an extra down to get 10 yards. The stats were overwhelming that teams converted a large number of first downs on those drives. (Of course, there was the factor that a lot of those completions came against “softer” defenses.)

One season, Bill Belichick went for it on something like 4 straight fourth downs... and they converted every one. (I remember Cowherd talking about it.) The thing was (as Cowherd said) Belichick has 3 Lombardi trophies to point to if he failed; whereas, other coaches who didn’t have rings would be roasted for that type of playcalling.

SUMMATION:
I read that study, and mojoUW is indeed correct (statistically speaking).

[DesertSteel]

There was a study from the University of Somewhere that studied “what if” you never punted. Essentially, it took the 3.33 yards per play needed down to 2.5 yards... which is doable by almost any running attack.

More importantly, they looked at the end of games where the QB was given an extra down to get 10 yards. The stats were overwhelming that teams converted a large number of first downs on those drives. (Of course, there was the factor that a lot of those completions came against “softer” defenses.)

One season, Bill Belichick went for it on something like 4 straight fourth downs... and they converted every one. (I remember Cowherd talking about it.) The thing was (as Cowherd said) Belichick has 3 Lombardi trophies to point to if he failed; whereas, other coaches who didn’t have rings would be roasted for that type of playcalling.

SUMMATION:
I read that study, and mojoUW is indeed correct (statistically speaking).
Winston Churchill said there are three types of lies: "There are lies, damn lies and then there are stats."

Stats are useless if they've never been proven.

I like Marv Levy's quote: "The difference between 98% and 100% is more than 2%."

[Mojouw]

Much of this can easily be proven. If you stall out on your own 45, punt the ball, and give up a moderate return - how much field position have you gained? How much do those yards really alter the situation for the offense? I mean the Steelers average starting position this year was what, the one yard line? And they scored how many points? Punted how often?

In contrast, late in a close game you score points after a fake or a some other type of 4th down conversion, and you leave the other amazing offense with less time to score more points, you have greatly increased your chances of winning. I think, upon further review, that the Steelers should’ve just lined up out of empty and just thrown for it. But attempting to retain the ball on 4th down and not let Breesus have another go at your suspect defense.

FWIW, the stats quote is one of my favorites, but Churchill never said it. Neither did Disraeli (who Twain attributed it to) and it seems to originate from random British newspapers in the 1800s.

[teegre]

Winston Churchill said there are three types of lies: "There are lies, damn lies and then there are stats."

Stats are useless if they've never been proven.

I like Marv Levy's quote: "The difference between 98% and 100% is more than 2%."

As El Gonzo would say: “Statistically, the average person has one testicle and one boob.”

Belichick proved it (to a degree).

Mathematically, the difference between 99% and 100% is infinate, with 100% being unattainable... as the curve asymptotes towards (never reaches) 100%.

[DesertSteel]

As El Gonzo would say: “Statistically, the average person has one testicle and one boob.”

Yes! How could I forget that one!!

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

As El Gonzo would say: “Statistically, the average person has one testicle and one boob.”

Belichick proved it (to a degree).

Mathematically, the difference between 99% and 100% is infinate, with 100% being unattainable... as the curve asymptotes towards (never reaches) 100%.

https://goo.gl/images/xfgu9B

It was my understanding...…. there would be no math.

Still, a dumb call by Tomlin.