Craic
08-03-2018, 01:44 AM
So,
My wife is out of town and I'm bored, so I was rewatching the 2008 AFCCG, and I noticed something interesting. Willie Parker was stopped behind the LOS only two times all game, and that was a against a very good defense (and a horrible front line for the Steelers). That got me wondering if that game was a fluke or if his stops behind the LOS are more of a myth than reality.
Methodology: I looked through every play for Willie Parker in his first five years (however, I only did the work on his first four years as he was a starter for only four years). I counted all negative running plays, evening if there was a penalty on the play by either team. Sometimes, a negative running play ended in a fumble. I counted those as well because had the Steelers recovered, it would be the equivalent of being tackled in the backfield. I did not count negative pass plays because QBs use RBs as safety valves, so the negative yardage on pass plays really is not indicative of a RBs ability on run plays. Finally, I looked to make sure none of the negative plays were post-two minute warning clock-bleeding plays where negative yardage is as good as kneel-down. After run the stats, I then did the same with the Gold Standard of modern RBs for pushing a play forward: Jerome Bettis. I used the first four years of both careers as starters with the Steelers. I figured that would be the most fair way to do it. Here's what I found.
Year 1.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS an average of 2.13 times a game in the regular season. Twice, he was stopped four times a game, and three times he was stopped three times per game. Nine times he was stopped only once or twice behind the LOS. On average, he was stopped for a loss once over 8 rushes. Compared to Bettis, this is high. Bettis averaged 1.33 stops behind the LOS per game, with a high of 5 (once) Every other game it was 0-3 stops behind the LOS, with a average of one stop per every 14.5 rushes.
Two things to note here. First, the comparison is somewhat unfair as Willie P. had one full game under his belt in the NFL when he took over the starting position in 2005 and by comparison, Bettis already had three seasons under his belt, with two of them being 1000+ yard seasons. Second, this was a "prove it" year for Bettis (not contract wise, but pride-wise), and his numbers show it as they drastically jump the rest of the years. Nevertheless, this was a fantastic year for Bettis and he far outpaced Willie P. this year.
Year 2.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS 1.8 times a game. In three of those games, he was stopped four times each, and in two others, he was stopped twice each. However, he also had four games with no stops behind the LOS and three games with one stop behind the LOS. He averaged one stop behind the LOS for every 11.6 rushes. Jerome Bettis, in his second year, was stopped more per game than Willie P., at a rate of 2.2 times a game. He had only two games with no stops, but also had only two games above 4 stops (5 in week fifteen and 4 in week sixteen). He also had five games with three stops behind the LOS. What should be noted, however, is that Bettis was a workhorse 1997, so his average was one stop every 11.7 rushes. In short, Willie P. had fewer stops behind the LOS per game than Bettis, and they were statistically even stops per rush.
Year 3.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS an average of 2 times a game, with a per rush average of 1 stop behind the LOS per every 10.4 rushes. He had seven games with 0-1 stops behind the LOS, but also had three games with 4 or more stops behind the LOS (4, 4, and an ugly 6). By contrast, Bettis pretty much followed suit. He was slightly lower in 1.92 stops behind the LOS per game, and had an average of 10.9 rushes per stop behind the LOS. Jerome had four games with no stops and three more games with 1 stop. However, just like Willie P. in his third year, Bettis had three ugly games with stops behind the LOS at 4, 5, and 5. In short, I think this year slightly tips in JB's favor, but statistically, there's really no difference in rushes resulting in stops behind the LOS.
Year 4.
Willie P. was stopped 2.45 times a game, and had one stop for every 7.8 rushes. In two games, he had six stops behind the LOS and in another, he had four. However, he also had four games with 0-1 stops behind the LOS. By comparison, Bettis was stopped twice a game behind the LOS, and had 9.6 rushes per one stop with only 2 games of four stops each.
On the surface, it looks like the final year goes to Bettis, however, something to keep in mind is that for Willie P., this was the 2008 year with perhaps, the worst O line this team has fielded since the 1960s and definitely tied for the worst center (Hardwick, tied with Mahan) since 1966 when Mansfield took over for Buzz Nutter who was an end-of-career replacement player for a year (and still was probably better than Hardwich and Mahan). By comparison, the Steelers were having bad seasons in 1998 and 1999. However, that wasn't due to their offensive line or center but to a combination of defensive failures and bad quarterbacking. So all things considered, and knowing that nobody was really successful running behind the LOS in 2008,* I'd argue they're pretty equal here.
*Ignoring Moore as he was a third down back, meaning he came in when defenses were looking for longer pass plays (especially that year), we had four running backs with Willie having a 3.8 average, mendy with 3.1, Russel with 2.8, and our FB Carey with a 2.9 average. As I said, no one was running behind that line.
____________________
Now, to anticipate a few counter points. First, what about no gains? Yes, Parker seemed to have quite a few "no gains." However, Bettis had his share as well. I didn't include these because a no gain is the exact same thing as a coordinator opting for a pass and it going incomplete (and to complete this comparison, loss of yards for a RB equals a sack on a pass play, so that strengthens the choice to focus only on losses behind the LOS).
Second, I did notice that Bettis seemed to get consistently bigger chunks of yardage at a time. However, I also noticed he seemed to consistently not get bigger chunks of yardage at a time, as well. So, six in one, half a dozen in the other.
Finally, no, this isn't a comparison to state who was the better RB. I'd pick Bettis every day of the week and three times on Sunday (unless it was a Monday game, then I'd wait until then). Instead, it was simply a comparison of Willie P. to the gold standard of RBs for the Steelers in the last thirty years. And from what we see here, except for one year, and accepting the O line issues of the 2008 season, it's reasonable to say that Willie P. was almost as consistent as Jerome Bettis in not losing yardage both per rush, and per game.
Some day, if I ever have time, I might do the same for Le'Veon Bell. That'd be an interesting research. I think he'd outpace pretty much everyone.
My wife is out of town and I'm bored, so I was rewatching the 2008 AFCCG, and I noticed something interesting. Willie Parker was stopped behind the LOS only two times all game, and that was a against a very good defense (and a horrible front line for the Steelers). That got me wondering if that game was a fluke or if his stops behind the LOS are more of a myth than reality.
Methodology: I looked through every play for Willie Parker in his first five years (however, I only did the work on his first four years as he was a starter for only four years). I counted all negative running plays, evening if there was a penalty on the play by either team. Sometimes, a negative running play ended in a fumble. I counted those as well because had the Steelers recovered, it would be the equivalent of being tackled in the backfield. I did not count negative pass plays because QBs use RBs as safety valves, so the negative yardage on pass plays really is not indicative of a RBs ability on run plays. Finally, I looked to make sure none of the negative plays were post-two minute warning clock-bleeding plays where negative yardage is as good as kneel-down. After run the stats, I then did the same with the Gold Standard of modern RBs for pushing a play forward: Jerome Bettis. I used the first four years of both careers as starters with the Steelers. I figured that would be the most fair way to do it. Here's what I found.
Year 1.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS an average of 2.13 times a game in the regular season. Twice, he was stopped four times a game, and three times he was stopped three times per game. Nine times he was stopped only once or twice behind the LOS. On average, he was stopped for a loss once over 8 rushes. Compared to Bettis, this is high. Bettis averaged 1.33 stops behind the LOS per game, with a high of 5 (once) Every other game it was 0-3 stops behind the LOS, with a average of one stop per every 14.5 rushes.
Two things to note here. First, the comparison is somewhat unfair as Willie P. had one full game under his belt in the NFL when he took over the starting position in 2005 and by comparison, Bettis already had three seasons under his belt, with two of them being 1000+ yard seasons. Second, this was a "prove it" year for Bettis (not contract wise, but pride-wise), and his numbers show it as they drastically jump the rest of the years. Nevertheless, this was a fantastic year for Bettis and he far outpaced Willie P. this year.
Year 2.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS 1.8 times a game. In three of those games, he was stopped four times each, and in two others, he was stopped twice each. However, he also had four games with no stops behind the LOS and three games with one stop behind the LOS. He averaged one stop behind the LOS for every 11.6 rushes. Jerome Bettis, in his second year, was stopped more per game than Willie P., at a rate of 2.2 times a game. He had only two games with no stops, but also had only two games above 4 stops (5 in week fifteen and 4 in week sixteen). He also had five games with three stops behind the LOS. What should be noted, however, is that Bettis was a workhorse 1997, so his average was one stop every 11.7 rushes. In short, Willie P. had fewer stops behind the LOS per game than Bettis, and they were statistically even stops per rush.
Year 3.
Willie P. was stopped behind the LOS an average of 2 times a game, with a per rush average of 1 stop behind the LOS per every 10.4 rushes. He had seven games with 0-1 stops behind the LOS, but also had three games with 4 or more stops behind the LOS (4, 4, and an ugly 6). By contrast, Bettis pretty much followed suit. He was slightly lower in 1.92 stops behind the LOS per game, and had an average of 10.9 rushes per stop behind the LOS. Jerome had four games with no stops and three more games with 1 stop. However, just like Willie P. in his third year, Bettis had three ugly games with stops behind the LOS at 4, 5, and 5. In short, I think this year slightly tips in JB's favor, but statistically, there's really no difference in rushes resulting in stops behind the LOS.
Year 4.
Willie P. was stopped 2.45 times a game, and had one stop for every 7.8 rushes. In two games, he had six stops behind the LOS and in another, he had four. However, he also had four games with 0-1 stops behind the LOS. By comparison, Bettis was stopped twice a game behind the LOS, and had 9.6 rushes per one stop with only 2 games of four stops each.
On the surface, it looks like the final year goes to Bettis, however, something to keep in mind is that for Willie P., this was the 2008 year with perhaps, the worst O line this team has fielded since the 1960s and definitely tied for the worst center (Hardwick, tied with Mahan) since 1966 when Mansfield took over for Buzz Nutter who was an end-of-career replacement player for a year (and still was probably better than Hardwich and Mahan). By comparison, the Steelers were having bad seasons in 1998 and 1999. However, that wasn't due to their offensive line or center but to a combination of defensive failures and bad quarterbacking. So all things considered, and knowing that nobody was really successful running behind the LOS in 2008,* I'd argue they're pretty equal here.
*Ignoring Moore as he was a third down back, meaning he came in when defenses were looking for longer pass plays (especially that year), we had four running backs with Willie having a 3.8 average, mendy with 3.1, Russel with 2.8, and our FB Carey with a 2.9 average. As I said, no one was running behind that line.
____________________
Now, to anticipate a few counter points. First, what about no gains? Yes, Parker seemed to have quite a few "no gains." However, Bettis had his share as well. I didn't include these because a no gain is the exact same thing as a coordinator opting for a pass and it going incomplete (and to complete this comparison, loss of yards for a RB equals a sack on a pass play, so that strengthens the choice to focus only on losses behind the LOS).
Second, I did notice that Bettis seemed to get consistently bigger chunks of yardage at a time. However, I also noticed he seemed to consistently not get bigger chunks of yardage at a time, as well. So, six in one, half a dozen in the other.
Finally, no, this isn't a comparison to state who was the better RB. I'd pick Bettis every day of the week and three times on Sunday (unless it was a Monday game, then I'd wait until then). Instead, it was simply a comparison of Willie P. to the gold standard of RBs for the Steelers in the last thirty years. And from what we see here, except for one year, and accepting the O line issues of the 2008 season, it's reasonable to say that Willie P. was almost as consistent as Jerome Bettis in not losing yardage both per rush, and per game.
Some day, if I ever have time, I might do the same for Le'Veon Bell. That'd be an interesting research. I think he'd outpace pretty much everyone.