Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

[hawaiiansteeler]

Le'Veon Bell, Steelers fail to reach long-term deal ahead of deadline

Jeremy Fowler
ESPN Staff Writer

The Pittsburgh Steelers and running back Le'Veon Bell failed to reach an agreement on a contract extension before Monday's 4 p.m. franchise tag deadline, and his agent says that means it is likely Bell's last season with the team.

"His intention was to retire as a Steeler," Adisa Bakari told ESPN's Adam Schefter. "But now that there's no deal, the practical reality is, this now likely will be Le'Veon's last season as a Steeler."

Bell will play on the franchise tag for the second consecutive year barring an unforeseen development. He tweeted after Monday's deadline passed that "2018 will be my best season to date."

The parties reopened negotiations last week and talked throughout Monday hoping to spark something, but there hasn't been much momentum toward a contract over the past few months.

"It became clear the Steelers wanted to pay the position, not the player," Bakari said.

to read rest of article:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24114399/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-fail-reach-long-term-deal-ahead-franchise-tag-deadline

[st33lersguy]

Bye Felicia

[AtlantaDan]

1018949926242455553

Sometimes the best deal you can make is not making one

Bell wants All Pro WR $$$ and RBs do not get that in a pass first league where RBs have a short peak career span - if it happens in 2019 let some other team run the risk

[ALLD]

Bell is a gambler, but the house always wins in the end.

[Mach1]

I think it's ultimately best for the team not to tie up that much for a running back.

https://www.50-best.com/images/mike_tyson_memes/bye_felicia.jpg


Then there's this.


Le'Veon Bell may not be back for the start of the regular season.

Despite his previous statements saying that he will sign is franchise tag before the start of the season (assuming he and the Steelers can't come to terms on a longterm deal by 4 p.m. today), ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported that Bell may elect to skip the first half of the 2018 season if he has to play under the tag this season.

https://247sports.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/Article/LeVeon-Bell-contract-may-skip-1st-half-of-18-if-he-plays-under-franchise-tag-119840757/

[Iron Steeler]

shefter said that this morning as his own prediction. Bell has not hinted towards sitting out ...yet.

[86WARD]

Bell already said it will be a repeat of last season. He will miss training camp, show up about 10 days before Week One.

[86WARD]

“It became clear the Steelers wanted to pay the position, not the player," Bakari said.


Not a bigger line of bullshit had arisen in the whole “Bell saga”

[vader29]

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[DesertSteel]

shefter said that this morning as his own prediction. Bell has not hinted towards sitting out ...yet.
He will sit out TC and PS for sure... But he's not going to miss a game check.

Hopefully he gets 400 carries and 80 catches this year.

[st33lersguy]

This may not be a popular opinion for some, but the organization should just rescind the franchise tag if he doesn't show. Yes they would lose out on compensation via compensatory pick or even from a trade, but it also means getting rid of that drama. He isn't worth the drama

[GBMelBlount]

So glad the Steelers did not tie the knot with Bell.

[AtlantaDan]

He will sit out TC and PS for sure... But he's not going to miss a game check.

P-G reporter Ray Fittipaldo agrees

Do you really think Bell sits out the first half of the year?
Ray Fittipaldo - No. I heard what Adam Schefter said on Sirius XM radio. That's coming from Bell's agent to make the Steelers feel uncomfortable. For someone whose words screams that he's all about the money missing $900,000 checks every weeks seems an unlikely scenario.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/07/16/leveon-bell-contract-ray-fittipaldo-steelers-chat-7-16-18/stories/201807160080

[Craic]

Oh well.

Bell simply wants too much money and the Steelers will never sell the house to buy the trailer. Looks like we're talking a RB with our first or second round pick next year. I may have to pay a little more attention to college RBs this year.

[steelreserve]

P-G reporter Ray Fittipaldo agrees

Do you really think Bell sits out the first half of the year?
Ray Fittipaldo - No. I heard what Adam Schefter said on Sirius XM radio. That's coming from Bell's agent to make the Steelers feel uncomfortable. For someone whose words screams that he's all about the money missing $900,000 checks every weeks seems an unlikely scenario.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/07/16/leveon-bell-contract-ray-fittipaldo-steelers-chat-7-16-18/stories/201807160080



Yeah, costing yourself money with no opportunity to gain anything in return would kind of defeat the point of any holdout. Not that there is a point to begin with.

Well, anyway, this has turned out roughly as expected. Looking forward to the drama next offseason. Big money drama. Big baller. Big rapper.

[DesertSteel]

When Bell's career is over, one will be able to look at the stat sheet and see that the Steelers got the best out of Bell when he was in his prime. Whatever he does elsewhere will pale by comparison.

[Craic]

Yeah, costing yourself money with no opportunity to gain anything in return would kind of defeat the point of any holdout. Not that there is a point to begin with.

Well, anyway, this has turned out roughly as expected. Looking forward to the drama next offseason. Big money drama. Big baller. Big rapper.

That's the thing, the drama is over. Here's how I see it playing out.

Sometime before 4:00 pm, March 13, 2019, Steelers make an offer to Bell. Bell rejects it.
March 11-15, Bell receives various offers and visits teams.
March 16, Bell still hasn't received his now 19 million dollar a year contract that he requires.
March 24-27, Owners laugh at Bell's stupidity at the league meeting in Phoenix.
March 28, behind the scenes the Redskins, Raiders, and Dallas all make stupid offers to Bell thinking the rest of the owners don't know how to win titles.
March 29, Bell still unhappy that contract offers aren't 19 million a year. He still holds out.
April 2, Bell signs contract of highest bidder, but he's really not happy about it.
April 25-27, Steelers move on and draft Bell's replacement.
Sometime in the offseason of 2021, Bell announces his retirement, leaving new team with millions tied up in the cap.
2022, Bell releases rap album and goes on tour.
2023, Bell announces he's staying out of the studio until his record label pays him for being both a rap artist and a musical poet.

[FrancoLambert]

When Bell's career is over, one will be able to look at the stat sheet and see that the Steelers got the best out of Bell when he was in his prime. Whatever he does elsewhere will pale by comparison.

Couldn't agree more. His best days will soon be behind him.
So, run his wheels off.
It will be so nice when he takes his drama elsewhere.

[DesertSteel]

Those other two RBs -- Conner and Samuel -- must be celebrating today.

[ALLD]

I would have explained that they would be willing to pay him as the #1 RB with a reasonable bonus for catching out of the backfield or as a #2 WR with a reasonable bonus for blocking and running out of the backfield.

He is not in a commissioned business. If he wants to get paid he needs to get on the field however he can and play. He can only wear one uniform and play one position at a time even if he has multiple skills.

He might be targeting a Super Bowl contender, otherwise he is committing career suicide.

[BlackAndGold]

1018986055884779520

[Bluecoat96]

Fuck him then. I hope Conner lights it up on the field. No compromise. Oh...and fuck his fucking agent...right up the pooper. The Steelers compromised and were willing to come in a little higher..likely out of their comfort zone. Not that I'm surprised he turned it down I guess.
1018986055884779520

Sent from my XT1710-02 using Tapatalk

[Craic]

When Bell's career is over, one will be able to look at the stat sheet and see that the Steelers got the best out of Bell when he was in his prime. Whatever he does elsewhere will pale by comparison.

With the exception of perhaps one or two years, I think you're absolutely right. If Bell leaves next year, he'll be on a "prove it" highhorse to the league that they all screwed up by not paying him what he wanted. The year after that, though, he's going to struggle.

One thing in Bell's favor, however, he's not a speed back, so age isn't going to hurt him like it did Willie Parker.

[AtlantaDan]

Those other two RBs -- Conner and Samuel -- must be celebrating today.

Along with Chris Boswell, who now is going to get his deal done. This from the online chat with P-G reporter Fittipaldo earlier today

Any updates on signing Boswell?

Ray Fittipaldo - Not yet. They'll turn their attention to him and some others looking for long-term deals after this Bell stuff is over.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/07/16/leveon-bell-contract-ray-fittipaldo-steelers-chat-7-16-18/stories/201807160080
(http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/07/16/leveon-bell-contract-ray-fittipaldo-steelers-chat-7-16-18/stories/201807160080)

[Neversatisfied]

I side with the Steelers on this one. Anyone who thinks Bell has more than 2 seasons left is fooling themselves, the shelf life on an NFL running back is very short and Bell has a ton of miles on him and far too many off field issues.

[Steelerchad]

I'm glad he didn't sign it, although the terms of the deal are basically a 2 year agreement with the team being able to cut bait with little to no cap hit after 2 years. They will run the wheels off of him this year. Good luck to him trying to ever collecting that kind of money. If he's lucky enough to stay healthy, his max value is going to be in the neighborhood of $15M/year. He's basically risking staying injury free for 2 straight years to squeeze what out of another deal? Another $1M or $2M/year. At some point, security should have come into play. Shazier is proof that it can all end on a single play. Willing to bet he never earns $70M during his remaining years with another team.

[fansince'76]

I would have explained that they would be willing to pay him as the #1 RB with a reasonable bonus for catching out of the backfield or as a #2 WR with a reasonable bonus for blocking and running out of the backfield.

He is not in a commissioned business. If he wants to get paid he needs to get on the field however he can and play. He can only wear one uniform and play one position at a time even if he has multiple skills.

He might be targeting a Super Bowl contender, otherwise he is committing career suicide.

If he's really serious about the $17M per season figure, and it appears that he is, a legit SB contender won't pay it.

No, chances are he'll sign with some suck team that vastly overpays for his services and his numbers take a nosedive accordingly because, well, he'll be playing for a suck team. See: Mike Wallace.

[st33lersguy]

Hey Le'Veon, you can sign with Washington next year and become the Albert Haynesworth of RBs. Gonna love the media circus surrounding him not doing the conditioning test in training camp 2020

[BlackAndGold]

Main thing is Bell is a Steeler this year. It's time to bring home #7

[Dwinsgames]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we-L7w1K5Zo

[DesertSteel]

With the exception of perhaps one or two years, I think you're absolutely right. If Bell leaves next year, he'll be on a "prove it" highhorse to the league that they all screwed up by not paying him what he wanted. The year after that, though, he's going to struggle.

One thing in Bell's favor, however, he's not a speed back, so age isn't going to hurt him like it did Willie Parker.
I'd agree if I thought will power played a bigger part than it does.

[Carolina Steelers]

I’m not mad at either party when it comes to bell, Steelers made a better then fair offer IMO, but Bell is betting on himself and wants to get paid it is what it is. Someone will pay him 15
Million plus next year just glad it’s not us. Don’t get it twisted I’ll be rooting for him this year he’s a great player but the. It’s time to move on


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Lady Steel]

No big surprise. I'm so over Bell and his drama.

[hawaiiansteeler]

No big surprise. I'm so over Bell and his drama.

me too, I don't mind seeing drama when I go to the theatre but I don't want to see it when I'm following my beloved Steelers.

[teegre]

I hope that Bell...

-has an all-time, record-setting season.

-brings a 7th Lombardi to Pittsburgh.

-gets his $20 million/season contract in 2019... with the Browns. :lol:


Really though, if he gets Ben another ring, I don’t care if he gets paid a ridiculous contract (by some other team).

[Mojouw]

There is a version of this where Bell plays on a series of ludicrously expensive 1 year deals. Be it in Pittsburgh or elsewhere. I just don’t see teams going multiple years with Demarco Murray falling off a cliff like 5 minutes ago.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AtlantaDan]

1018950012053704704
1018984929819054080
1018986286718341126

I am with Ed B. - tired of the bullshit posturing from Bell and his agent - just say you want to get paid

[st33lersguy]

Le'Veon Bell: "I want to be a Steeler, as long as I get payed what I want"

[steelreserve]

One thing in Bell's favor, however, he's not a speed back, so age isn't going to hurt him like it did Willie Parker.

I think this is a big misconception, and not for any reason that has to do with Willie Parker (yes, I do still hate him, though).

No running back's game is "based" on speed, because having breakaway speed doesn't mean shit until you've already gotten past the first eight or nine guys. Until you're past the linebackers, everybody has a potential angle on you, which means your speed is completely negated until you dodge them, break a tackle, or find a place where they're blocked out for you. If you don't have the ability to do that, you're not going to be a good running back. (Willie Parker was very much below-average at all of those aspects of the running game, but maintained a deceptively high YPC and season totals with a few long runs here and there. Terribly inconsistent, like the guy who hits 25 home runs a year but strikes out 180 times and has a .220 batting average. The Rob Deer or Dave Kingman of football, who kills as many rallies as he starts.)

Anyway, the point is, the skills Bell uses to get past the line of scrimmage are the same skills that Parker used, or that almost any running back uses. He's just a lot better at it than most. But when you lose that half-step of elusiveness and quickness, either you can adjust to the new reality or you can't, and there's no telling ahead of time which it will be.

Really the only exceptions to this are the true straight-ahead power backs who make their living by running over people. But most of them have the opposite problem, which is that they can only crash into people like that for a few years until they can't take it anymore. Jerome Bettis was a rare individual indeed.

[DesertSteel]

In my opinion, this article on Bell is stunningly accurate! OVERRATED.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/steelers-leveon-bell-contract-overrated-value-running-back/1eyk0tnc24aqi1aezg4ycp7yh0

[steelreserve]

In my opinion, this article on Bell is stunningly accurate! OVERRATED.

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/steelers-leveon-bell-contract-overrated-value-running-back/1eyk0tnc24aqi1aezg4ycp7yh0


An interesting take ... seems kind of similar to the idea of "player usage rate" in the NBA.

Like, James Harden is among the league's top scorers - but of course he is, because he's also a ball hog who takes almost 40% of his team's shots.

I don't think Bell is really "hogging" the ball because football doesn't work that way, but it does make you consider: You don't "lose" 85 receptions and 650 yards if Bell isn't on the field. They're just 85 passing attempts that would go to someone else. What would be the expected outcome? I don't know, but it wouldn't be zero.

In any case - what's the difference between Bell and a merely good running back who would command $8 million? Maybe 300 or 400 receiving yards. If that's worth an additional $9 million, you're on crack. Especially considering some of that yardage would simply be reallocated to the tight ends and third-down specialist RBs. Maybe not the disaster some are anticipating.

On the other hand, look at our overall offensive rankings in points and yardage before Bell compared to with Bell. Went from the teens and 20s to the single digits across the board. There is obviously some value to being strong at RB. But again, the bar to clear may just mean being good at the position, not All-Pro level.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

[DesertSteel]

I don't think that the article painted Bell as a ball hog. Obviously the term can't even apply in Football, IMO. But that his greatest value was the fact he didn't need subbed out. But at what point does the cost outweigh the value? I agree with the writer that Bell saved the Steelers from themselves. I don't mind a RB by committee. This part of the article stood out the most:

However, even without paying Bell like he is something beyond a running back, at least in the eyes of the player and his agent, the Steelers still are investing dramatically more at the position than the teams they are chasing. Bell will play in 2018 with the second-highest salary cap hit on the team. None of the past three Super Bowl champions had a running back who ranked in the top 20. None had a back earn even $2 million. Five Philadelphia backs counted a combined $3.21 million against the cap last season. That’s a quarter of what Pittsburgh paid Bell on the 2017 franchise tag.
And yet the Eagles ranked No. 3 last season in rushing yards. The Steelers were 20th. The Steelers were third in passing, but Bell’s 655 receiving yards represented only 15 percent of the team’s total. No. 3 wideout Martavis Bryant nearly matched that on 20 fewer targets. They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.

[AtlantaDan]

More chippy comments from the agent

“The Steelers have a unique way of structuring deals,” Bakari said. “These contracts are not fully guaranteed. Le’Veon plays a position that has one of the shortest lifespans in the league. We have to focus on the guarantee. It’s safe to say he’ll get a guarantee [as a free agent] that is more traditional, and he’ll be protected for the balance of his career.” ...

“In five years, he has amassed more yards than anyone in the history of the league. In reality, due to injuries and other circumstances, in four years he has amassed more yards than any offensive skilled player who dons a gold jacket, anyone who has a bust in Canton. We are currently looking at a once-in-a-generation player.”

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/07/17/Le-Veon-Bell-Adisa-Bakari-Steelers-franchise-tag-running-back/stories/201807170123

In other words if he didn't repeatedly get injured, repeatedly suspended for drug use (aka "other circumstances"), and need to play himself into form in 2017 his stats would be even better

We will see how safe it is to say Bell can get a much better deal elsewhere in 2019 after he gets through 2018 - good luck with that if he drops off in 2018 as much as he did in 2017 or has another major injury

[Mojouw]

An interesting take ... seems kind of similar to the idea of "player usage rate" in the NBA.

Like, James Harden is among the league's top scorers - but of course he is, because he's also a ball hog who takes almost 40% of his team's shots.

I don't think Bell is really "hogging" the ball because football doesn't work that way, but it does make you consider: You don't "lose" 85 receptions and 650 yards if Bell isn't on the field. They're just 85 passing attempts that would go to someone else. What would be the expected outcome? I don't know, but it wouldn't be zero.

In any case - what's the difference between Bell and a merely good running back who would command $8 million? Maybe 300 or 400 receiving yards. If that's worth an additional $9 million, you're on crack. Especially considering some of that yardage would simply be reallocated to the tight ends and third-down specialist RBs. Maybe not the disaster some are anticipating.

On the other hand, look at our overall offensive rankings in points and yardage before Bell compared to with Bell. Went from the teens and 20s to the single digits across the board. There is obviously some value to being strong at RB. But again, the bar to clear may just mean being good at the position, not All-Pro level.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/

Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...

[EzraTank]

This says it all:


However, even without paying Bell like he is something beyond a running back, at least in the eyes of the player and his agent, the Steelers still are investing dramatically more at the position than the teams they are chasing. Bell will play in 2018 with the second-highest salary cap hit on the team. None of the past three Super Bowl champions had a running back who ranked in the top 20. None had a back earn even $2 million. Five Philadelphia backs counted a combined $3.21 million against the cap last season. That’s a quarter of what Pittsburgh paid Bell on the 2017 franchise tag.

And yet the Eagles ranked No. 3 last season in rushing yards. The Steelers were 20th. The Steelers were third in passing, but Bell’s 655 receiving yards represented only 15 percent of the team’s total. No. 3 wideout Martavis Bryant nearly matched that on 20 fewer targets. They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.



Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/news/steelers-leveon-bell-contract-overrated-value-running-back/1eyk0tnc24aqi1aezg4ycp7yh0

[steelreserve]

Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...

Yeah, I mean it's always easier to have an all-around good player than two or three different specialists who you have to rotate based on the situation. If you have, like, Mewelde Moore in the game regularly, there is just as good of a chance of the opponent exploiting that to their advantage as there is of you exploiting it to your own advantage.

That's the one thing that makes me nervous about next year: We don't really have what I would call a good, well-rounded running back. Just a bunch of situational guys and question marks. I'm sure we'll do something to address that between now and then, but as it stands it would be a problem. I do think we'll be fine as long as we pick up even a pretty-good guy who can get you 4-5 yards more often than not. We kind of have to be, because the end of the Bell-Einstein era is coming no matter what now.

[pczach]

Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...


Exactly. He makes everyone on the field better every time he steps foot on it.

He blocks like a pass protection specialist. He is an elite runner. He is the best receiving RB in the NFL by a significant margin. He doesn't turn the ball over.

Some think he's overrated. However, some of the traits I listed above are the most underrated things any player can perform for a team. Put them all together and you have maybe the most complete running back in the history of the NFL. And no....I don't think I'm overstating that.

I also agree that Haley never figured out how to maximize his talents. Haley almost eliminated play action passing from the playbook, and didn't dictate one on one coverage with favorable matchups as much as he should have to take advantage of the way he affects the entire field.

Let's see how this whole thing plays out. If they win the Super Bowl, keeping him was worth it. After that, they can concentrate on drafting more running backs or another feature back.

[steelreserve]

Exactly. He makes everyone on the field better every time he steps foot on it.

He blocks like a pass protection specialist. He is an elite runner. He is the best receiving RB in the NFL by a significant margin. He doesn't turn the ball over.

Some think he's overrated. However, some of the traits I listed above are the most underrated things any player can perform for a team. Put them all together and you have maybe the most complete running back in the history of the NFL. And no....I don't think I'm overstating that.

I also agree that Haley never figured out how to maximize his talents. Haley almost eliminated play action passing from the playbook, and didn't dictate one on one coverage with favorable matchups as much as he should have to take advantage of the way he affects the entire field.

Let's see how this whole thing plays out. If they win the Super Bowl, keeping him was worth it. After that, they can concentrate on drafting more running backs or another feature back.


I wouldn't go that far. Bell is basically Marshall Faulk or Ladainian Tomlinson but with no other active players to really compare him to, because the NFL running game has been thoroughly gutted over the course of the last 15 years as everyone tried to lemming the Patriots. Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Herschel Walker, Roger Craig - you can go down a whole list of players who had similar capabilities. Not an especially long list, but there used to be at least a couple of guys in the league like that at any given time. Now it's like seeing an albino tiger.

I wonder if the pendulum will start swinging back the other way a bit once people realize that you actually can win in ways other than running an offense that looks like it was lifted straight from Madden 18.

[DesertSteel]

Bell has a bit of "hidden" value in that since he is just as good in the run, pass, and blocking aspects of his position - defenses can't read package keys. Take the Eagles. Clement in the game, likely a pass play. Blount in the game, run play. Now is that worth millions of dollars per year? Almost certainly not, but it is worth something...
One thing we know with absolute certainty based on the evidence: it's not worth a Super Bowl win.

[ALLD]

Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..

[Hawkman]

Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..

Does make me wonder how he would do behind a mediocre line. This line knows his style, which is quirky. How many other lines can hold those blocks so he can find a hole. Time will tell.

[pczach]

One thing we know with absolute certainty based on the evidence: it's not worth a Super Bowl win.



I know how you feel about him, but does that mean Dan Marino wasn't worth a Super Bowl win? You can't pin that on one guy. He wasn't the reason the team didn't move on in the playoffs last season. He was great. The defense shit the bed.

I just think it's silly to lay all the blame of a 53 man roster at the feet of Bell. You can hate him and his contract demands, but he hasn't been the reason for the team's failures.

[AtlantaDan]

I know how you feel about him, but does that mean Dan Marino wasn't worth a Super Bowl win? You can't pin that on one guy. He wasn't the reason the team didn't move on in the playoffs last season. He was great. The defense shit the bed.

I just think it's silly to lay all the blame of a 53 man roster at the feet of Bell. You can hate him and his contract demands, but he hasn't been the reason for the team's failures.

Agreed he has not been “the” reason for the playoff shortcomings but missing the 2014 and 2015 playoffs along with the Pats championship game didn’t help when the offense is built around that player as a major passing option as well as the showcase running option

Injuries can happen to everyone but repeatedly being injured is part of Bell’s resume and illustrates the risk of paying RBs mega-contracts compared to WRs and QBs

Can’t win and establish your value if you can’t play

[pczach]

Bell is great, but he can't carry a team like Barry Sanders or Earl Campbell. He is a product of the system. He will be missed, but his individual contributions to any team will peak by this upcoming season or they already have.

If he gets lucky and lands on a SB winner on his next contract, then so be it, but remember most often it's the defense that wins that game..



Go watch some film of his last year at Michigan St. His line was horrendous.

Barry Sanders carried his team to what exactly?

Earl Campbell carried his team to what exactly?

Some of the comments you guys are making are purely emotional and not objective in any way.

Look, I'm on record as saying he's not worth the money he's asking for because I don't think any running back is worth that kind of money against the salary cap and the production that you can still get from lesser backs while strengthening the rest of the roster. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean he's not a great player. Paying too much for his services may prevent the team from winning a Super Bowl, but it's not because he isn't good enough as a player. Question the money....not the talent.

[Craic]

Question the money....not the talent.

This. Completely and totally, with one caveat. "Question the money and intelligence . . . not the talent."

Two things we know for a fact about Le'Veon Bell. He is a very hard worker, and he is very talented. One other thing that has become clear about him, he's a tone-deaf bonehead.

[Mojouw]

Go watch some film of his last year at Michigan St. His line was horrendous.

Barry Sanders carried his team to what exactly?

Earl Campbell carried his team to what exactly?

Some of the comments you guys are making are purely emotional and not objective in any way.

Look, I'm on record as saying he's not worth the money he's asking for because I don't think any running back is worth that kind of money against the salary cap and the production that you can still get from lesser backs while strengthening the rest of the roster. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean he's not a great player. Paying too much for his services may prevent the team from winning a Super Bowl, but it's not because he isn't good enough as a player. Question the money....not the talent.

Nailed it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dwinsgames]

https://twitter.com/Dwinsgames/status/1019416048221802501h[TWET]tps:[/TWEET]//twitter.com/Dwinsgames/status/1019416048221802501

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[fansince'76]

They ranked only 18th in red-zone touchdown percentage, an astonishing failure given the value they're assigning to Bell's talents.

I think Haley had a much bigger hand in that than Bell...

[Cyphon25]

I wouldn't go that far. Bell is basically Marshall Faulk or Ladainian Tomlinson but with no other active players to really compare him to, because the NFL running game has been thoroughly gutted over the course of the last 15 years as everyone tried to lemming the Patriots. Thurman Thomas, Marcus Allen, Herschel Walker, Roger Craig - you can go down a whole list of players who had similar capabilities. Not an especially long list, but there used to be at least a couple of guys in the league like that at any given time. Now it's like seeing an albino tiger.

I know I will get flak for this but Isaac Redman could do all of those things as well, just not at Bells level (or at least the Steelers didn't trust him to try it). He was a great pass blocker, good hands out of the backfield, good after the catch, and when he had 15 or more carries he had a few 100 yard games.

The part that drives me nuts is when Bell and his agent act like he has invented a new position. The majority of his catches are at or behind the LOS like every other RB in the history of the league. Being asked to block is nothing new either. He is a great at what he does but it makes him a great RB, not a magical unicorn who shoots rainbows out of his butt.

[Mojouw]

This is all a moderately complex math problem.

Bell is making 14.5 million on the tag this year. Based on the best available speculative reports, the Steelers were guaranteeing a signing bonus and then a series of sorta guarantees through the first two seasons.

https://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/07/report-final-leveon-bell-offer-from-steelers-included-10-million-signing-bonus/

So Bell likely got offered something very very similar to AB's original contract prior to the extension -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/antonio-brown-6702/ -- as that contract has served as the template for all non-QB big $$$ contracts given out by the team in the last few years.

That means the only #'s that matter are the guaranteed signing bonus and the first years where the dead money is bigger than the cap hit. What the team likelyoffered is the $10 million guaranteed signing bonus and then another 23 million in the 2018 and 2019 seasons. That would leave only around 37 million spread across the final 3 years of the deal. That means it was a two year deal for around 33 million dollars most likely and then a series of 10-12 million dollar per year options. That is a reasonable offer by the Steelers. It is a totally beatable offer from Bell's perspective.

He is already going to earn 14.5 million dollars this year. So he just has to get 19 million from some team up-front next year and he beats the first 2 years of the Steelers offer. If he puts up 1800-2000 yards from scrimmage and 10-14 TDs with no major injuries, I bet that some team with cap room will throw 20-25 million up front at him without hesitation. Look at what Watkins, Landry, and other inferior players got on the open market this past off-season. There is nothing dumber in the NFL than the GM of a 7-9 to 9-7 franchise with cap space that thinks they are close to contention.

Long story short - take a look at this -- https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/sammy-watkins-14413/

21 million at signing and 30 million guaranteed. If Bell gets something like that, he exceeds the Steelers offer, not by a lot in total dollars but by 10 million or so in guaranteed cash. It is a massive role of the dice. But I suspect there are very few elite athletes that will not choose to bet on themselves 10 out of 10 times.

Also, attempting to link Bell and Redman was the highlight of my morning.

[steelreserve]

I know I will get flak for this but Isaac Redman could do all of those things as well, just not at Bells level (or at least the Steelers didn't trust him to try it). He was a great pass blocker, good hands out of the backfield, good after the catch, and when he had 15 or more carries he had a few 100 yard games.

in b4 suddenness and glide



The part that drives me nuts is when Bell and his agent act like he has invented a new position. The majority of his catches are at or behind the LOS like every other RB in the history of the league. Being asked to block is nothing new either. He is a great at what he does but it makes him a great RB, not a magical unicorn who shoots rainbows out of his butt.

You're right, he doesn't do anything that's really "different" there. It's not like he's going out on 20-yard routes and making plays that a receiver would make.

What he DOES do is turn short dump-offs into 10-yard gains better than any other running back in the league right now, and right up there with any running back ever. He does pick you up a buttload of first downs and keeps drives going, which is extremely valuable. But as you said, it's not like he's breaking new ground by doing that. He's just playing the running back position at a very high level.

If I could keep him on the team, I would, but it wasn't really up to us. Even if we offered him the $17 million he was asking for, I don't think it would've mattered; I don't think he was going to re-sign for any price.

[Cyphon25]

Also, attempting to link Bell and Redman was the highlight of my morning.

I knew people would love that. Just to reiterate I don't mean to say Redman was as good as Bell or whatever. I only use it to illustrate that outside of being very high level at his position, what he does isn't even unique in Steelers recent history. He is doing things we have asked of other RB's on our roster, just at a higher level. However, he and his agent act like he has invented an entirely new way of playing the game. Even a guy like Redman who people consider a backup at best, was a great pass blocker and had good hands out of the backfield. So why should Bell be paid like a receiver?


in b4 suddenness and glide

2 terms that should never be associated with Redman. Dude was a bulldozer. He didn't have time for glide.


You're right, he doesn't do anything that's really "different" there. It's not like he's going out on 20-yard routes and making plays that a receiver would make.

What he DOES do is turn short dump-offs into 10-yard gains better than any other running back in the league right now, and right up there with any running back ever. He does pick you up a buttload of first downs and keeps drives going, which is extremely valuable. But as you said, it's not like he's breaking new ground by doing that. He's just playing the running back position at a very high level.

If I could keep him on the team, I would, but it wasn't really up to us. Even if we offered him the $17 million he was asking for, I don't think it would've mattered; I don't think he was going to re-sign for any price.

Exactly. He is a great running back and nothing more. His agent is framing him like some unique new thing the league has never seen before because they throw him a lot of passes. And just to back up what I am talking about I will provide some numbers:

Bell was targeted 106 times in 2017 and 56 of those targets were at or behind the line. Someone find me another receiver who gets that many balls that close to the QB. That also doesn't account for passes that are just 1 or 2 yards past the line which again, receivers aren't really getting.

Another key number is that there were 78 receivers in 2017 who caught 30 or more balls. All 78 of them averaged more yards per catch than Bell. He is certainly a volume guy but most definitely not a receiver.

[Mojouw]

I knew people would love that. Just to reiterate I don't mean to say Redman was as good as Bell or whatever. I only use it to illustrate that outside of being very high level at his position, what he does isn't even unique in Steelers recent history. He is doing things we have asked of other RB's on our roster, just at a higher level. However, he and his agent act like he has invented an entirely new way of playing the game. Even a guy like Redman who people consider a backup at best, was a great pass blocker and had good hands out of the backfield. So why should Bell be paid like a receiver?



2 terms that should never be associated with Redman. Dude was a bulldozer. He didn't have time for glide.



Exactly. He is a great running back and nothing more. His agent is framing him like some unique new thing the league has never seen before because they throw him a lot of passes. And just to back up what I am talking about I will provide some numbers:

Bell was targeted 106 times in 2017 and 56 of those targets were at or behind the line. Someone find me another receiver who gets that many balls that close to the QB. That also doesn't account for passes that are just 1 or 2 yards past the line which again, receivers aren't really getting.

Another key number is that there were 78 receivers in 2017 who caught 30 or more balls. All 78 of them averaged more yards per catch than Bell. He is certainly a volume guy but most definitely not a receiver.

I don't know where you are pulling the stats from, so I wasn't able to find some of the same details. But looking at "air yards per target" (https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards) I wonder what guys like Landry, Sanu, Tate, Cobb, and just about any primarily short area TE look like. I don't think anyone was confusing Bell with a #1 WR but some of the #'s I have looked at would support the idea that he is in the same ballpark as many of the slot receivers in the league.

I do not think that Steelers should have went beyond the offer they had on the table in overall dollars - maybe (stress the MAYBE) they could've tweaked the language to do some more guaranteed cash. But to deny that in league where Watkins and Landry get the big-time deals they got that Bell won't get a mega $$$ deal on the open market is kinda silly.

Additionally, Bell is a unique talent. Is he an all-time great? I don't know, probably not. But to have any conversation that he is somehow only a souped up Isaac Redman is just laughable. The ENTIRE offense is predicated around what Bell can and can't do. Half the pass plays the team runs are structured around moving Bell around pre-snap to force the defense to respond. Most opposing teams have repeatedly said the majority of their preparation time for Steelers week is not on Ben, AB, or other skill position players - it is on where is Bell, what is he doing, and what is our response? Isaac Redman and most of the other backs in the NFL do not cause that response in teams.

[Cyphon25]

I don't know where you are pulling the stats from, so I wasn't able to find some of the same details. But looking at "air yards per target" (https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards) I wonder what guys like Landry, Sanu, Tate, Cobb, and just about any primarily short area TE look like. I don't think anyone was confusing Bell with a #1 WR but some of the #'s I have looked at would support the idea that he is in the same ballpark as many of the slot receivers in the league.

The 56 out of 106 targets comes from PFF. The other part came from Dave at Steelersdepot and he also included the PFF stats there

https://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/07/pff-leveon-bell-led-nfl-in-2017-in-pass-targets-at-or-behind-the-line-of-scrimmage/

Would be interesting to see but I doubt it is even close for Bell. Most of what he does is YAC which again, still relates to being an RB and not a WR. He isn't facing CB's and S's but LB's most of the time and while I think he can run all of the routes on some level he typically doesn't have to.


I do not think that Steelers should have went beyond the offer they had on the table in overall dollars - maybe (stress the MAYBE) they could've tweaked the language to do some more guaranteed cash. But to deny that in league where Watkins and Landry get the big-time deals they got that Bell won't get a mega $$$ deal on the open market is kinda silly.

I fully believe he will get big money, I just didn't want the Steelers to be the ones to overpay. We have 6 trophies, let the teams like the Chiefs who overpay for guys like Watkins continue to do so and continue to get knocked out of the first round every year.


Additionally, Bell is a unique talent. Is he an all-time great? I don't know, probably not. But to have any conversation that he is somehow only a souped up Isaac Redman is just laughable. The ENTIRE offense is predicated around what Bell can and can't do. Half the pass plays the team runs are structured around moving Bell around pre-snap to force the defense to respond. Most opposing teams have repeatedly said the majority of their preparation time for Steelers week is not on Ben, AB, or other skill position players - it is on where is Bell, what is he doing, and what is our response? Isaac Redman and most of the other backs in the NFL do not cause that response in teams.

There are a couple of discussion points here so I will seperate them.

1. The reason I point to Redman isn't about a skill level comparison but is a direct response to Bell and his agents argument. Because he can catch passes and he blocks they frame it like he is unique to the NFL but he really isn't. Every RB is asked to run routes from time to time and block for the QB. I point to Redman because not only is Bell not unique to the league, he isn't even unique in the Steelers recent past. Again, he is a much better overall player than Redman, but the idea of him lining up at receiver making him special is ridiculous. Redman did the same thing from time to time. In fact he had a beautiful all hands catch for a game winning TD vs the Ravens when he was lined up as a receiver. So it isn't meant to be a Bell vs Redman debate but just used as an illustration. Redman was also rated by PFF as one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league at one point by the way (as was Dwyer if I remember correctly).

2. Yes, the offense moves around Bell but that is by virtue of how the Steelers choose to setup their offense. Again, this isn't necessarily a unique thing to Bell. The Cowboys could choose to start having Zeke move around and do things of that nature. The Falcons could do it with Freeman. The Rams could do it with Gurley. The Pats could do it with White. That just isn't how they choose to operate. The Steelers don't HAVE to work Bell in so much. They do afterall have the best WR in the NFL and a HOF QB.

Bell is a great RB, maybe the best in the NFL but that is all he is. He isn't some once in a lifetime talent that can't be replaced and worked around.

[Mojouw]

The 56 out of 106 targets comes from PFF. The other part came from Dave at Steelersdepot and he also included the PFF stats there

https://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/07/pff-leveon-bell-led-nfl-in-2017-in-pass-targets-at-or-behind-the-line-of-scrimmage/

Would be interesting to see but I doubt it is even close for Bell. Most of what he does is YAC which again, still relates to being an RB and not a WR. He isn't facing CB's and S's but LB's most of the time and while I think he can run all of the routes on some level he typically doesn't have to.



I fully believe he will get big money, I just didn't want the Steelers to be the ones to overpay. We have 6 trophies, let the teams like the Chiefs who overpay for guys like Watkins continue to do so and continue to get knocked out of the first round every year.



There are a couple of discussion points here so I will seperate them.

1. The reason I point to Redman isn't about a skill level comparison but is a direct response to Bell and his agents argument. Because he can catch passes and he blocks they frame it like he is unique to the NFL but he really isn't. Every RB is asked to run routes from time to time and block for the QB. I point to Redman because not only is Bell not unique to the league, he isn't even unique in the Steelers recent past. Again, he is a much better overall player than Redman, but the idea of him lining up at receiver making him special is ridiculous. Redman did the same thing from time to time. In fact he had a beautiful all hands catch for a game winning TD vs the Ravens when he was lined up as a receiver. So it isn't meant to be a Bell vs Redman debate but just used as an illustration. Redman was also rated by PFF as one of the best pass blocking RB's in the league at one point by the way (as was Dwyer if I remember correctly).

2. Yes, the offense moves around Bell but that is by virtue of how the Steelers choose to setup their offense. Again, this isn't necessarily a unique thing to Bell. The Cowboys could choose to start having Zeke move around and do things of that nature. The Falcons could do it with Freeman. The Rams could do it with Gurley. The Pats could do it with White. That just isn't how they choose to operate. The Steelers don't HAVE to work Bell in so much. They do afterall have the best WR in the NFL and a HOF QB.

Bell is a great RB, maybe the best in the NFL but that is all he is. He isn't some once in a lifetime talent that can't be replaced and worked around.

I can agree with most of that. But, right now, there are a handful of guys at the RB position that are light years ahead of the rest. Bell, David Johnson, Gurley, Kareem Hunt, and maybe Elliot. Everyone else is trying to get to that level at the position with staggeringly high draft picks (Fournette and Barkley) or throwing money at lottery tickets (Jerrick McKinnon) or cobbling a Franken-back out of 2-4 guys. The guys I listed have about as much in common with the Issac Redmans of the world as a Rolls Royce Phantom does with a Yugo hatchback.

I think that fan reactions have been far too "no big deal" regarding Bell almost certainly leaving. His absence will carve a hole out of the offense that a 38 year old QB and a 30+ WR, no matter how great they are, will need significant help to fill. Now maybe Conners/Samuels, McDonald, and the new WR are more than enough. The thing is nobody knows. The ONLY thing that is known for sure is what the offense looks like with Bell as the engine. Does that mean I think the Steelers needed to pay whatever was required to keep Bell in town? No. I want that to be clear. I think (for a host of reasons) that the Steelers offer was the best for them. But I also honestly believe that Bell will beat it on the open market.

On a slightly related note, want to hear a terrifying thing? AB significantly slowed down last year according to several advanced stat tracking services. As in he ran noticeably slower in all phases of the game and areas of the field. Clearly it had little to no affect on his ability to impact the game. But how much longer can he be the "guy"?

[hawaiiansteeler]

I think that fan reactions have been far too "no big deal" regarding Bell almost certainly leaving. His absence will carve a hole out of the offense that a 38 year old QB and a 30+ WR, no matter how great they are, will need significant help to fill. Now maybe Conners/Samuels, McDonald, and the new WR are more than enough. The thing is nobody knows. The ONLY thing that is known for sure is what the offense looks like with Bell as the engine. Does that mean I think the Steelers needed to pay whatever was required to keep Bell in town? No. I want that to be clear. I think (for a host of reasons) that the Steelers offer was the best for them. But I also honestly believe that Bell will beat it on the open market.

On a slightly related note, want to hear a terrifying thing? AB significantly slowed down last year according to several advanced stat tracking services. As in he ran noticeably slower in all phases of the game and areas of the field. Clearly it had little to no affect on his ability to impact the game. But how much longer can he be the "guy"?

and I honestly believe that there will be a noticeable decline in Bell's play within the next couple of years, which is why it makes no sense to give a RB such an exorbitant long-term contract with guaranteed money imo.

[ALLD]

Go watch some film of his last year at Michigan St. His line was horrendous.

Barry Sanders carried his team to what exactly?

Earl Campbell carried his team to what exactly?

Some of the comments you guys are making are purely emotional and not objective in any way.

Look, I'm on record as saying he's not worth the money he's asking for because I don't think any running back is worth that kind of money against the salary cap and the production that you can still get from lesser backs while strengthening the rest of the roster. But just because I feel that way doesn't mean he's not a great player. Paying too much for his services may prevent the team from winning a Super Bowl, but it's not because he isn't good enough as a player. Question the money....not the talent.

Sanders and Campbell put their respective teams on their backs exclusively and carried them. There were no other high quality players on those teams. Without them they would be the Browns.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I have sinking feeling Bell is going to be a patriot next year

[Craic]

and I honestly believe that there will be a noticeable decline in Bell's play within the next couple of years, which is why it makes no sense to give a RB such an exorbitant long-term contract with guaranteed money imo.

While that may be true, and I agree that an exorbitant contract is wrong, we also have to remember that Bell's running style isn't predicated on elements that disappear with age as much as speed backs or scatbacks. Bell's running depends on patience, the ability to identify openings, and then his ability to hit that opening hard. He also likes running over people as much as he does juking people. So, while his 10+ yard runs may dwindle, his 3 and 4+ yard runs will continue to increase, and to have a back that consistently gets you three or four yards every time they touch the ball is worth a pretty penny as well. Because it gaurantees a 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4 rather than a 3rd and long situation.

Although I joked about it in another thread, I think Bell probably has 3-4 years of very high production left barring injury. He'll hit a thousand yards rushing until then each year, IMO because of the reasons listed above.

[DesertSteel]

Although I joked about it in another thread, I think Bell probably has 3-4 years of very high production left barring injury. He'll hit a thousand yards rushing until then each year, IMO because of the reasons listed above.
Likely at 3.8 YPC... which is where he teetered most of 2017. That's not worth $15M per. I get it... he also blocks and catches dump off passes. Time will tell over the next 2-3 years. Unless this board goes the way of Steelers Fever, I'll be here to talk about it.

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I have sinking feeling Bell is going to be a patriot next year
If he is then Bill stopped playing chess and joined the rest of us at checkers.

[86WARD]

Funny to see the hatred for one of the best RBs in Steelers history after he was the be all end all of the 2013 draft. What will happen to the fan base if he signs a two year deal with Pittsburgh next off season? Lol.

[hawaiiansteeler]

I have sinking feeling Bell is going to be a patriot next year

when was the last time Belicheat paid big $$$ to a RB?

[st33lersguy]

I have sinking feeling Bell is going to be a patriot next year

Not sure why he would since he typically takes a few lesser backs and works them into his system. Plus he just drafted a RB in round 1 last April

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Funny to see the hatred for one of the best RBs in Steelers history after he was the be all end all of the 2013 draft. What will happen to the fan base if he signs a two year deal with Pittsburgh next off season? Lol.

T.O. is one of the greatest WRs in history but he gets constant hate for being a locker room cancer, a nuisance, selfish and overly dramatic. Character counts as well, and if you spend more time creating negative locker room and putting yourself before the team, you tend to receive more hate while being a great player

[pczach]

Sanders and Campbell put their respective teams on their backs exclusively and carried them. There were no other high quality players on those teams. Without them they would be the Browns.


Barry Sanders was an incredible player. He did carry his team, but he has more than a few weaknesses. Barry Sanders couldn't or wouldn't block. He was small and could get overwhelmed by blitzing LBs. He was not a good receiver. He didn't show great hands, and struggled at times in the passing game. He always played for the home run. He would routinely take huge losses while attempting to break a big run. That style put his offense in terrible position to continue drives very often. Some of that may have been coaching, but he wasn't nearly the all-around player Bell is. He was a phenomenal runner....maybe the greatest pure runner to ever play the game. I could watch film of that guy doing the most ridiculous things with the ball in his hand all day long. He was a great, great player. However, he was not the complete player Bell is at all facets of the game.

Here are his stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Sanders


Earl Campbell played on some very talented teams that had many pro bowl caliber players. For many years, people thought they had a roster that rivalled the best rosters in the NFL on pure talent. He was not a good receiver in any way. He was a very bright star that burned out very quickly because of his running style, and his teams underachieved. He was not the franchise carrying player you describe. They had a good offensive line, a good quarterback, and good defenses and he never got to a Super Bowl. He was a fumbling machine. If he was that much better than Bell, he should have "carried" his team to a championship or two.

Check out his stats: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Campbell

Both of these players had offenses that were completely constructed around their talents and played in an era that featured running backs. If you want to say they were better pure runners than Bell, I understand that completely. But let's not overlook the glaring weaknesses in their games. They were great pure runners with limitations in other parts of their game.

Here are Bell's career stats just so we can all see how he stacks up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le%27Veon_Bell

Bell still has a lot more to do over his career to see how he is judged historically. He hurt himself and the team with suspensions. He has been injured a few times and missed significant time. The one thing we know is that no player has ever averaged as many yards per game as Bell has done since coming into the NFL. I don't see how people can just dismiss that when you really look at the numbers and the total yards from scrimmage. Look at the number of fumbles compared to the number of touches compared to these other backs and to any other great running backs you want to compare him to. Taking care of the ball while touching it that many times is astonishing.

This stuff matters whether you want to believe it or not. Look at the receiving yards and impact that those touches have had compared to other these backs and other great backs. I know they played in a different era, but you can't just look at the strengths of other players without looking at their weakness.

[DesertSteel]

The bottom line is that I'll be a Bell fan in 2018 and then not so much after that.

[hawaiiansteeler]

The bottom line is that I'll be a Bell fan in 2018 and then not so much after that.

unless he re-signs with the Steelers, of course. :tt02:

[pczach]

The bottom line is that I'll be a Bell fan in 2018 and then not so much after that.



I get it, and there's nothing wrong with that.

He has pissed everyone off with the way he has handled things. Me included.

[DesertSteel]

unless he re-signs with the Steelers, of course. :tt02:
Obviously

[AtlantaDan]

While that may be true, and I agree that an exorbitant contract is wrong, we also have to remember that Bell's running style isn't predicated on elements that disappear with age as much as speed backs or scatbacks. Bell's running depends on patience, the ability to identify openings, and then his ability to hit that opening hard. He also likes running over people as much as he does juking people. So, while his 10+ yard runs may dwindle, his 3 and 4+ yard runs will continue to increase, and to have a back that consistently gets you three or four yards every time they touch the ball is worth a pretty penny as well. Because it gaurantees a 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4 rather than a 3rd and long situation.

Although I joked about it in another thread, I think Bell probably has 3-4 years of very high production left barring injury. He'll hit a thousand yards rushing until then each year, IMO because of the reasons listed above.

Arguably it is that quick burst once Bell picks his opening that could go more quickly than straight ahead speed that has never been a strong point in Bell's game.

ESPN had an interesting article several weeks ago on how baseball players age - physical peak is in early 20s and after that being able to improve is how you play the game as physical decline accelerates.

An athlete's physical decline begins before most of us notice it, and even the 23-year-old body can do things today that it might not be able to do tomorrow. ... An average runner slows a little more than 1 inch per second every year, beginning pretty much immediately (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qSd7nN8vY4rZw9HNSlrEIvCkTnLXlopDl_ddyba-jAc/edit?usp=sharing) upon his debut. It takes a little over four seconds for most runners to reach first base, which means with each birthday, it's as if the bases were pulled 4 inches farther apart. ...

A 23-year-old begins to decline at the same time that he learns how to play baseball better. The race between age and expertise is what determines whether a baseball player can have the best season of his career years after his body begins to fail.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/23916211/major-league-baseball-aging-cycle-how-mike-trout-becomes-albert-pujols

Might explain why running back is the position where NFL players can hit it big immediately since the learning curve for that position coming out of NCAA ball is not as steep and pure physical talent is even more important (as opposed to QB where if the QB survives the early years the best ones now play into their late 30s).

Add to that Bell's style of running over people (ask Earl Campbell how that worked out) and his decline could be at least as steep as more traditional RBs

It's a business with no loyalty and Bell is entitled to seek to max out his earnings while Steelers try to max out the return on investment while working under the salary cap. Good luck to the team that pays for multiple years of prime Bell after most RBs have little prime left once they turn 27

[DesertSteel]

I know how you feel about him, but does that mean Dan Marino wasn't worth a Super Bowl win? You can't pin that on one guy. He wasn't the reason the team didn't move on in the playoffs last season. He was great. The defense shit the bed.

I just think it's silly to lay all the blame of a 53 man roster at the feet of Bell. You can hate him and his contract demands, but he hasn't been the reason for the team's failures.
It was a direct comparison to the 2017 Steelers and their RB investment/production and the 2017 Eagles RB investment/production. The ROI was that the Eagles won the Super Bowl and the Steelers went 0-1 in the playoffs.

[steel striker]

It's a shame that this is his last season and, he will be missed. I does it all but, if you look at the winning super bowl winners the last several years it's a running back by committee. Bell is a great player maybe 4-5 years left of his great play as well. The steelers will survive.

[Mojouw]

It was a direct comparison to the 2017 Steelers and their RB investment/production and the 2017 Eagles RB investment/production. The ROI was that the Eagles won the Super Bowl and the Steelers went 0-1 in the playoffs.

In 2017 the Steelers spent 12.4 million on the RB position.

The final four playoff teams in 2017 and their cap hits for the RB position:

Philly: 3.2 million
Patriots: 11.0 million
Jags: 13.1 million
Vikings: 4.5 million

So what conclusion do we want to draw? RB by committee is the path to success? Or that 50% of the conference championship game participants spent at the same level the Steelers did at the RB position. What about the fact that the Giants passed on a QB to take a RB? What about the idea that for 3 off seasons now the league has been trying to find "pass catching backs" under every rock and shrub?

Again, the Steelers made the best offer for them. Bell will get a better offer in 2019 from someone. I can't really figure out what that means, but I suspect no one is wrong and no one is totally right.

There are like 3 or 4 paths to success and roster construction in the NFL. Bell was not even within shouting distance of why the Steelers failed to reach the Super Bowl.

[DesertSteel]

In 2017 the Steelers spent 12.4 million on the RB position.

The final four playoff teams in 2017 and their cap hits for the RB position:

Philly: 3.2 million
Patriots: 11.0 million
Jags: 13.1 million
Vikings: 4.5 million

So what conclusion do we want to draw? RB by committee is the path to success? Or that 50% of the conference championship game participants spent at the same level the Steelers did at the RB position. What about the fact that the Giants passed on a QB to take a RB? What about the idea that for 3 off seasons now the league has been trying to find "pass catching backs" under every rock and shrub?

Again, the Steelers made the best offer for them. Bell will get a better offer in 2019 from someone. I can't really figure out what that means, but I suspect no one is wrong and no one is totally right.

There are like 3 or 4 paths to success and roster construction in the NFL. Bell was not even within shouting distance of why the Steelers failed to reach the Super Bowl.
Ok... that's well and good, but there's only one prize. Final Fours only count in March Madness. The point that's been proven by the last 3 Super Bowl winners is that you don't need a $15M RB. The past 3 Super Bowl winners did not have a RB making more than $2M.

Eagles: $3.2M and ranked No. 3 in rushing yards. Won Super Bowl.
Steelers $12.4M and ranked No. 20 in rushing yards. 0-1 in Playoffs.

Point is that we can win the Super Bowl WITH LeVeon Bell (I hope we do in 2018), but we don't need him to do so.

[Mojouw]

Ok... that's well and good, but there's only one prize. Final Fours only count in March Madness. The point that's been proven by the last 3 Super Bowl winners is that you don't need a $15M RB. The past 3 Super Bowl winners did not have a RB making more than $2M.

Eagles: $3.2M and ranked No. 3 in rushing yards. Won Super Bowl.
Steelers $12.4M and ranked No. 20 in rushing yards. 0-1 in Playoffs.

Point is that we can win the Super Bowl WITH LeVeon Bell (I hope we do in 2018), but we don't need him to do so.

I mean if you want to find causation where there does not seem to be certain ground, have a great time.

My point is that you are only selecting the portions of the available evidence that fit your point. Half the playoff field spent a great deal of money on RBs. Half did not. So maybe the situation is more complicated.

I don't think that anyone is arguing that we must have Bell to win a championship. But he certainly can make it easier. Based on the Eagles, Vikings, and Jags playoff runs the Steelers can win a championship with Ben but they don't need him to do it. There is no way I or anyone else would agree with that statement, but only looking at certain aspects of a limited portion of the 2017 NFL season - that becomes one of the conclusion that looks like the facts support it. Again, this stuff is complicated and there are no clear answers.

[Fire Goodell]

when was the last time Belicheat paid big $$$ to a RB?

Corey Dillon? I know they gave up a 2nd rounder to trade for him, but as far as I remember, it was good money and not some bank breaker like what Bell's asking for.

But yeah for the most part the Patriots* usually dip into the bargain bin for RBs. There's no pats* running back I hated more than Kevin Faulk though, that dude was a nobody but always had huge games against us.

[Mojouw]

Corey Dillon? I know they gave up a 2nd rounder to trade for him, but as far as I remember, it was good money and not some bank breaker like what Bell's asking for.

But yeah for the most part the Patriots* usually dip into the bargain bin for RBs. There's no pats* running back I hated more than Kevin Faulk though, that dude was a nobody but always had huge games against us.

Interestingly enough from 2015-2017, the Steelers and Pats spent roughly the same amount of cap dollars at the RB position. Prior to that (site only goes back to 2013) the Steelers spent less than the Pats.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2015/running-back/

Two contrasting approaches though. Pats are willing to pay multiple guys with specific roles a small amount that adds up to a good deal of money overall and the Steelers seek to find one guy to pay all the money to.

[Fire Goodell]

Interestingly enough from 2015-2017, the Steelers and Pats spent roughly the same amount of cap dollars at the RB position. Prior to that (site only goes back to 2013) the Steelers spent less than the Pats.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2015/running-back/

Two contrasting approaches though. Pats are willing to pay multiple guys with specific roles a small amount that adds up to a good deal of money overall and the Steelers seek to find one guy to pay all the money to.

Didn't know that, but it is interesting. Their approach I guess is not as high of a ceiling as having a healthy 26, but is more fail safe. If one RB goes down, they have another that can take over and not lose much of a step at all. If 26 goes down for us though, it's a significant drop, unless Connor really blows it up.

[DesertSteel]

I mean if you want to find causation where there does not seem to be certain ground, have a great time.

My point is that you are only selecting the portions of the available evidence that fit your point. Half the playoff field spent a great deal of money on RBs. Half did not. So maybe the situation is more complicated.

I don't think that anyone is arguing that we must have Bell to win a championship. But he certainly can make it easier. Based on the Eagles, Vikings, and Jags playoff runs the Steelers can win a championship with Ben but they don't need him to do it. There is no way I or anyone else would agree with that statement, but only looking at certain aspects of a limited portion of the 2017 NFL season - that becomes one of the conclusion that looks like the facts support it. Again, this stuff is complicated and there are no clear answers.
The rest of your verbiage aside, the part I have placed in bold is the only point I’m making, to which you concede. It’s 50/50 either way. There’s no proven method. So we don’t have to have a $15M RB to win the Super Bowl. In fact, no one ever has.

- - - Updated - - -


Interestingly enough from 2015-2017, the Steelers and Pats spent roughly the same amount of cap dollars at the RB position. Prior to that (site only goes back to 2013) the Steelers spent less than the Pats.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/2015/running-back/

Two contrasting approaches though. Pats are willing to pay multiple guys with specific roles a small amount that adds up to a good deal of money overall and the Steelers seek to find one guy to pay all the money to.
Which begs the question: which is easier to replace? A role player or a mega star?

[Mojouw]

The rest of your verbiage aside, the part I have placed in bold is the only point I’m making, to which you concede. It’s 50/50 either way. There’s no proven method. So we don’t have to have a $15M RB to win the Super Bowl. In fact, no one ever has.

That's not it at all.

Based off the whatever the Eagles did is the way to win the SB logic, the Steelers should cut Leveon Bell and roll with Samuels, Conner, and some bruiser from FA. They should then trade Ben because Landry Jones can be Nick Foles.

My point is that when Bell leaves, that will be a phenomenal amount of yards from scrimmage that will be carved out of the offense. Bell has accounted for roughly a third of the offensive output during his tenure as a Steeler.

I have no interest in debating the specific dollar value and contract structure that translates to. But I do strongly argue that simply shrugging that contribution off and deciding it is readily replaceable by spreading it across several less talented players is false.

When Bell leaves, AB will face the entire weight of the defensive scheme. Right now AB gets double teams and jams, but the focus of the defense (this is well documented and can readily be found in quotes by coaches, players, and commentators via a short Google search) is on Bell. What impact will that have? No one knows, but it will have an impact.

Spreading Bell's yards from scrimmage across McDonald, JuJu, Conner/Samuels is a fun exercise in math, but ignores the above. How much of the time the TE is wide open for short passes is that because teams are freaking out about following Bell around? We could discuss numerous other examples or scenarios.

Yes, you are correct no team has to pay any player anything. Each player in the NFL can be replaced. But many posts on the various threads seem to be making an assumption that Bell is just a cog that can be swapped out for another cog and a few extra widgets. That is not how I see it. Bell is replaceable but in replacing him the offensive system and approach of the Steelers will need to be fundamentally altered.

- - - Updated - - -


The rest of your verbiage aside, the part I have placed in bold is the only point I’m making, to which you concede. It’s 50/50 either way. There’s no proven method. So we don’t have to have a $15M RB to win the Super Bowl. In fact, no one ever has.

- - - Updated - - -


Which begs the question: which is easier to replace? A role player or a mega star?

It also begs the question is what is more efficient? Pay 3 guys to approximate the elite production of a star? Pay the star? Money has been the same.

It honestly looks like the Steelers were willing to pay the star, but had a threshold they wouldn't go past. Bell wants to go past that level, so they are going to part ways.

But it doesn't mean the fundamental approach is wrong.

[DesertSteel]

That's not it at all.

Based off the whatever the Eagles did is the way to win the SB logic, the Steelers should cut Leveon Bell and roll with Samuels, Conner, and some bruiser from FA. They should then trade Ben because Landry Jones can be Nick Foles.
OK... I wouldn't terribly mind if the Steelers waited until Sept 1 and then rescinded the franchise tag - for the record. But don't get ridiculous about the Landry Jones thing. That's just a silly straw man.



My point is that when Bell leaves, that will be a phenomenal amount of yards from scrimmage that will be carved out of the offense. Bell has accounted for roughly a third of the offensive output during his tenure as a Steeler. Yes they will be giving up 4.0 YPC and 7 through the air. But you have one flaw in your premise: you act as if Bell is going to continue to perform at his 2014 pace into his late 20s with 1600+ carries. It's not going to happen.



I have no interest in debating the specific dollar value and contract structure that translates to. But I do strongly argue that simply shrugging that contribution off and deciding it is readily replaceable by spreading it across several less talented players is false.
Why is it false when it's been proven capable of winning Super Bowls, including last year.



When Bell leaves, AB will face the entire weight of the defensive scheme. Right now AB gets double teams and jams, but the focus of the defense (this is well documented and can readily be found in quotes by coaches, players, and commentators via a short Google search) is on Bell. What impact will that have? No one knows, but it will have an impact.

Spreading Bell's yards from scrimmage across McDonald, JuJu, Conner/Samuels is a fun exercise in math, but ignores the above. How much of the time the TE is wide open for short passes is that because teams are freaking out about following Bell around? We could discuss numerous other examples or scenarios.
There's no way you can know how good Samuels and Conner will be yet. Not to mention if they take a RB in the first round next year.



Yes, you are correct no team has to pay any player anything. Each player in the NFL can be replaced. But many posts on the various threads seem to be making an assumption that Bell is just a cog that can be swapped out for another cog and a few extra widgets. That is not how I see it. Bell is replaceable but in replacing him the offensive system and approach of the Steelers will need to be fundamentally altered.
Obviously the Steelers' FO thinks they can do that or they would have offered him more than $10M guaranteed. That low figure was quite surprising to me.

- - - Updated - - -




It also begs the question is what is more efficient? Pay 3 guys to approximate the elite production of a star? Pay the star? Money has been the same.

It honestly looks like the Steelers were willing to pay the star, but had a threshold they wouldn't go past. Bell wants to go past that level, so they are going to part ways.

But it doesn't mean the fundamental approach is wrong.

If I'm a GM, I'm rolling with the idea of either spreading it out OR going young and cheap again through the draft. If your $15M guy gets an ACL or popped for dope, where does that leave you? Not to mention the diva hat that Bell wears. I'll be glad to run the wheels off this year and move on.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Obviously

https://i.imgflip.com/shzeq.jpg

[Mojouw]

We seem to be talking past each other.

Bell's production comes with the setting of the offense overall, as does any players. Removal of one player could alter the functioning of that system.

Take a look at this article -- https://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/12/leveon-bell-deserves-credit-rejuvenating-steelers-passing-offense/

Or this one from a season or so ago -- https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-features-news-blog-long-form/2016/9/28/13079312/the-statistic-which-proves-how-important-leveon-bell-is-to-ben

There are a staggering amount of data points that all say the same things:

1. The offense is more efficient, productive, and turns the ball over less when Bell is on the field.
2. Other skill players on the team are even more effective when Bell is in the lineup.
3. Bell accounts from somewhere between 30-40+% of the offensive output each season.

All I am saying is that the assumption that is all readily replaceable appears to fly in the face of all available data.

Remember in last SB defensive core whenever Aaron Smith would get hurt? Many other players on those defenses had better stats, were more lauded, etc BUT whenever Smith would get hurt and miss games the defense would significantly drop in performance. Smith made everyone else on those units better. It took a long time for the Steelers to find a way to replace Smith.

Hopefully it won't be a similar struggle to replace/replicate what Bell brings to the offense.

[DesertSteel]

We seem to be talking past each other. Sometimes you try to be so thorough (and you do a very good job of it), I'm not even sure what side of the issue you are on :).




Bell's production comes with the setting of the offense overall, as does any players. Removal of one player could alter the functioning of that system.

Take a look at this article -- https://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/12/leveon-bell-deserves-credit-rejuvenating-steelers-passing-offense/

Or this one from a season or so ago -- https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-features-news-blog-long-form/2016/9/28/13079312/the-statistic-which-proves-how-important-leveon-bell-is-to-ben

There are a staggering amount of data points that all say the same things:

1. The offense is more efficient, productive, and turns the ball over less when Bell is on the field.
2. Other skill players on the team are even more effective when Bell is in the lineup.
3. Bell accounts from somewhere between 30-40+% of the offensive output each season.

All I am saying is that the assumption that is all readily replaceable appears to fly in the face of all available data.

Remember in last SB defensive core whenever Aaron Smith would get hurt? Many other players on those defenses had better stats, were more lauded, etc BUT whenever Smith would get hurt and miss games the defense would significantly drop in performance. Smith made everyone else on those units better. It took a long time for the Steelers to find a way to replace Smith.

Hopefully it won't be a similar struggle to replace/replicate what Bell brings to the offense.
No doubt, the offense will be vastly different. I contend that as long as an NFL team trots out a top 10 QB that their offense will be good. Ben is top 5 and should be that for another couple-three years. I really think they can offset the loss of Bell. Especially since it's my main point that they weren't going to have the 2014 Bell anyway, whether he stayed of went.

[AtlantaDan]

We seem to be talking past each other.

Bell's production comes with the setting of the offense overall, as does any players. Removal of one player could alter the functioning of that system.

Take a look at this article -- https://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/12/leveon-bell-deserves-credit-rejuvenating-steelers-passing-offense/

Or this one from a season or so ago -- https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-features-news-blog-long-form/2016/9/28/13079312/the-statistic-which-proves-how-important-leveon-bell-is-to-ben

There are a staggering amount of data points that all say the same things:

1. The offense is more efficient, productive, and turns the ball over less when Bell is on the field.
2. Other skill players on the team are even more effective when Bell is in the lineup.
3. Bell accounts from somewhere between 30-40+% of the offensive output each season.

All I am saying is that the assumption that is all readily replaceable appears to fly in the face of all available data.

Remember in last SB defensive core whenever Aaron Smith would get hurt? Many other players on those defenses had better stats, were more lauded, etc BUT whenever Smith would get hurt and miss games the defense would significantly drop in performance. Smith made everyone else on those units better. It took a long time for the Steelers to find a way to replace Smith.

Hopefully it won't be a similar struggle to replace/replicate what Bell brings to the offense.

Pro Football Focus has attempted to calculate the value Bell brings to the offense using the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value that has become a key baseball analytic

This from Peter King's Football Morning In America (King has left SI for NBC and SI owns the right to use the MMQB brand) column this morning

Pro Football Focus mined WAR data (Wins Above Replacement) for me to determine whether Bell did the right thing in turning down a long-term deal—keeping in mind that the guarantees in the contract offer are still cloudy. But assume for the sake of argument that Bell could have made $45 million over the next three years. Did he do right by turning down this deal and being free next March?...

WAR, or wins above replacement. PFF is using this previously noted baseball stat to judge value of player and position. How many wins is Bell responsible for, compared to the back behind him on the roster? (In 2018, it’s likely to be James Conner (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/12317/james-conner).) In the PFF metrics, which isolates on things like yards per route run, wide receiver Antonio Brown (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5698/antonio-brown) was judged to be worth 2.22 wins over his projected replacement in 2013; Bell was judged to have a WAR of 0.48 that year. Big edge, Brown. Comparing the two Steeler mega-stars who do not play quarterback illustrates one of the core tenets of PFF research: quarterback, wide receiver and cornerback are more valuable to a team’s won-loss record than running back. And performance of the offensive line—PFF judges offensive lines, logically, to be a major factor in rushing efficiency—also helped Bell. Brown is going to average more yards per target than a running back—9.49 yards produced per targeted throw in his career, compared to 6.97 yards per target for Bell. It all goes into the mix. Here is their tale of the tape with respect to wins above replacement since they’ve played in tandem in Pittsburgh:

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bell-brown.jpg

I can’t blame the Steelers for not over-extending to do the deal. Blame the position.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/23/chicago-bears-camp-mitch-trubisky-matt-nagy-peter-king-fmia/

Is Bell valuable - no doubt. But given the position he plays a top flight RB is easier to replace than his peers at WR. NFL contracts reflect that.

[Dwinsgames]

Pro Football Focus has attempted to calculate the value Bell brings to the offense using the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) value that has become a key baseball analytic

This from Peter King's Football Morning In America (King has left SI for NBC and SI owns the right to use the MMQB brand) column this morning

Pro Football Focus mined WAR data (Wins Above Replacement) for me to determine whether Bell did the right thing in turning down a long-term deal—keeping in mind that the guarantees in the contract offer are still cloudy. But assume for the sake of argument that Bell could have made $45 million over the next three years. Did he do right by turning down this deal and being free next March?...

WAR, or wins above replacement. PFF is using this previously noted baseball stat to judge value of player and position. How many wins is Bell responsible for, compared to the back behind him on the roster? (In 2018, it’s likely to be James Conner (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/12317/james-conner).) In the PFF metrics, which isolates on things like yards per route run, wide receiver Antonio Brown (http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5698/antonio-brown) was judged to be worth 2.22 wins over his projected replacement in 2013; Bell was judged to have a WAR of 0.48 that year. Big edge, Brown. Comparing the two Steeler mega-stars who do not play quarterback illustrates one of the core tenets of PFF research: quarterback, wide receiver and cornerback are more valuable to a team’s won-loss record than running back. And performance of the offensive line—PFF judges offensive lines, logically, to be a major factor in rushing efficiency—also helped Bell. Brown is going to average more yards per target than a running back—9.49 yards produced per targeted throw in his career, compared to 6.97 yards per target for Bell. It all goes into the mix. Here is their tale of the tape with respect to wins above replacement since they’ve played in tandem in Pittsburgh:

https://nbcprofootballtalk.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/bell-brown.jpg

I can’t blame the Steelers for not over-extending to do the deal. Blame the position.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/23/chicago-bears-camp-mitch-trubisky-matt-nagy-peter-king-fmia/

Is Bell valuable - no doubt. But given the position he plays a top flight RB is easier to replace than his peers at WR. NFL contracts reflect that.


good post , interesting logic


if we lived in the 3 yards and a cloud of dust era still than I would say Bell is worth every penny of what he is asking , that said we live in a passing league now and if going to throw that sort of money around it better be for a guy who averages 10 yards per touch

[AtlantaDan]

good post , interesting logic


if we lived in the 3 yards and a cloud of dust era still than I would say Bell is worth every penny of what he is asking , that said we live in a passing league now and if going to throw that sort of money around it better be for a guy who averages 10 yards per touch

Another recent PFF article on Bell's value that concurs with your views (and mine as well) on the diminished value of RBs in today's NFL

What is Le'Veon Bell's true value?


https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/07/Steelers-with-without-Bell2-768x432.jpg
There is a definite bump with Bell on the field, but it’s not what makes this offense truly elite as evidenced by the much higher Wins Above Replacement numbers for both Roethlisberger and Brown (Brown is about 9.0 WAR above Bell since 2013, while Roethlisberger is about 18.0). ...

Bell has certainly been a main target for Big Ben in the passing game but just how much value is there to targeting running backs? Since 2014, targeting a running back is nearly a third as valuable as targeting a wide receiver or a tight end. Even when the running back is targeted from the slot they generate less than half the value (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-offensive-slot-weapons) of a slot target to a receiver or tight end.

Among running backs and receivers with at least 30 slot targets since 2014, Bell ranks 70th of 139 in EPA per slot target and 134th in yards per target. The player who leads those categories, Bell’s teammate Juju Smith-Schuster (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/juju-smith-schuster/11817), will make less than a million dollars in the second year of his rookie deal.
https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/07/EPA-YPA-juju-v-leveon3-768x432.jpg

Bell is hurt by the simple fact that what he does most frequently – carry the ball from seven yards behind the line of scrimmage – is both his least-valuable asset and also the most damaging to his physical ability.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-what-is-leveon-bells-true-value?utm_content=buffercd90f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

Glad to read the shout out to JuJu but his ranking as a slot receiver obviously is skewed by the outlier of his 97 yard catch and run TD in Detroit


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Bs-ehMFOQ&feature=player_embedded

[Dwinsgames]

Another recent PFF article on Bell's value that concurs with your views (and mine as well) on the diminished value of RBs in today's NFL

What is Le'Veon Bell's true value?


https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/07/Steelers-with-without-Bell2-768x432.jpg
There is a definite bump with Bell on the field, but it’s not what makes this offense truly elite as evidenced by the much higher Wins Above Replacement numbers for both Roethlisberger and Brown (Brown is about 9.0 WAR above Bell since 2013, while Roethlisberger is about 18.0). ...

Bell has certainly been a main target for Big Ben in the passing game but just how much value is there to targeting running backs? Since 2014, targeting a running back is nearly a third as valuable as targeting a wide receiver or a tight end. Even when the running back is targeted from the slot they generate less than half the value (https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-examining-the-value-of-offensive-slot-weapons) of a slot target to a receiver or tight end.

Among running backs and receivers with at least 30 slot targets since 2014, Bell ranks 70th of 139 in EPA per slot target and 134th in yards per target. The player who leads those categories, Bell’s teammate Juju Smith-Schuster (https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/juju-smith-schuster/11817), will make less than a million dollars in the second year of his rookie deal.
https://media.profootballfocus.com/2018/07/EPA-YPA-juju-v-leveon3-768x432.jpg

Bell is hurt by the simple fact that what he does most frequently – carry the ball from seven yards behind the line of scrimmage – is both his least-valuable asset and also the most damaging to his physical ability.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-what-is-leveon-bells-true-value?utm_content=buffercd90f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl

Glad to read the shout out to JuJu but his ranking as a slot receiver obviously is skewed by the outlier of his 97 yard catch and run TD in Detroit


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6Bs-ehMFOQ&feature=player_embedded






and he refers to himself as #2 WR and RB in 1 .... however ..... a little tid bit that many over look and under state is Bell averaged LESS yards per reception than Jesse James last year and most here want James replaced because he lacks inherent value to the passing game ...

[hawaiiansteeler]

Todd Gurley just signed a 4 year, $60,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Rams, including $45,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $15,000,000.

[Born2Steel]

Todd Gurley is now the highest paid RB in the league. Perfect timing Rams!

[Mojouw]

Todd Gurley just signed a 4 year, $60,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Rams, including $45,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $15,000,000.

Wish there was a side by side comparison of Gurley's deal and Bell's offer. Feel like the Steelers were only off by a some guaranteed cash?

Long story short, Bell will get a similar deal as soon as he enters free agency this upcoming off-season.

[Fire Goodell]

Wish there was a side by side comparison of Gurley's deal and Bell's offer. Feel like the Steelers were only off by a some guaranteed cash?

Long story short, Bell will get a similar deal as soon as he enters free agency this upcoming off-season.

Bell probably would have signed if offered that much guaranteed money. However, if he played this season and next, he would have gotten $33M from what I understand? Does Bell have so little faith that he won't play for more than 2 more years? That contract averaged 14M a year which isn't far off what TG's contract was worth.

With that said, I side with the Steelers FO. Giving a ton of guaranteed money is not a smart business decision when dealing with someone who's only finished one season without injury / suspension. Sure, it might not be totally fair to still hold his past actions against him, but on the other hand, you sleep in the bed you make.

[Dwinsgames]

Gurley - 3 years younger - Less wear on the body -less injury history - no league suspensions for drug use .......

anyone think any of that factors into the equation ......

[Fire Goodell]

Wow we got some real knuckle draggers on Steelersdepot, I think I'm officially done with the comments section there. Some morons think Bell is better than Gurley, I want whatever they're smoking.

Gurley set the market for the top RB. Bell, nor any other RB in the league is going to get more than that.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Wow we got some real knuckle draggers on Steelersdepot, I think I'm officially done with the comments section there. Some morons think Bell is better than Gurley, I want whatever they're smoking.

Gurley set the market for the top RB. Bell, nor any other RB in the league is going to get more than that.

the best QB in the NFL is not currently the highest paid one...

[Mojouw]

Additionally the Steelers have always held to a pecking order when they do salaries. Bell wasn't going to get above Ben and AB.

The Rams are in a totally different situation in that Gurley and Aaron Donald (despite their refusal to pay him...he has to be pissed at this point) should dominant the salary cap table for them - since Goff and the wideouts are not all that special.

I agree that the Steelers offer was in their best interests and stuck to their pattern when dealing with big money second contracts for players. I do not disagree totally.

The limited point I am trying to make is that the broad outlines of the deal Bell wanted and the deal the Steelers offered seems to be far less outlandish with Gurley's deal coming in where it did. And, what if the Steelers "lose out" (your concern over this may vary based on individual opinion) on 2-4 years of "prime" Leveon Bell for something like $10-15 million more in guarantees?

If that was the real sticking point (the guaranteed cash), then I'm going to throw out an extremely unpopular take: Colbert and Company screwed up.

1. Gurley's deal shows that Bell and the Steelers were playing in the right ball-park.
2. Steelers players typically see the first 1-3 years of their big money 2nd contracts. This is well documented.
3. IF you (the team) are 80-100 % likely to pay out years 1-3 of the contract anyway -- why not offer to guarantee more than just the reported $10 million?

The way I see it, is that the team wanted Bell. They were willing to pay in the right neighborhood. Why not offer to guarantee a bit more of money you were willing to spend anyways? Now they have consolation prizes as the 2019 RB committee or they have to spend a Round 1 Draft pick (that is the new "going rate" based on 2018 draft).

On the other hand, you can only pay what you can pay...

[Born2Steel]

I seem to remember many on here claiming "no RB is worth $15M/year". Now I am seeing Gurley deserves it because he's "better than Bell". Just wow.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Gurley - 3 years younger - Less wear on the body -less injury history - no league suspensions for drug use .......

anyone think any of that factors into the equation ......

Gurley sustained a torn ACL in his left knee while at Georgia...

[Dwinsgames]

IF you (the team) are 80-100 % likely to pay out years 1-3 of the contract anyway -- why not offer to guarantee more than just the reported $10 million?

The way I see it, is that the team wanted Bell. They were willing to pay in the right neighborhood. Why not offer to guarantee a bit more of money you were willing to spend anyways?

this should answer both questions ...

https://drugabuse-com.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/Is-marijuana-addictive-620x260.jpg

[Mojouw]

this should answer both questions ...

https://drugabuse-com.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/Is-marijuana-addictive-620x260.jpg

You can easily write in a clause that drug suspensions or naughty instagram posts invalidate any and all guarantees etc.

We will never know what really went down because the Steelers don't discuss/leak this stuff. We can only speculate, but all I wanted to point out is that there is a version of this where for refusing to guarantee money you were going to pay ANYWAY, the team has a 2019 backfield of an unproven Conner and a totally unknown Samuel instead of a bona-fide high performing RB.

Doesn't necessarily mean that the Steelers were wrong, but I think it needs injected into the overall discussion that the Gurley contract #'s provide tangible evidence that there is a legitimate chain of logic that they were not totally right either.

Now all this can change at a drop of a hat once the actual real contract #'s for Gurley's deal come out and/or Bell's agent leaks more of the Steelers offer in response.

[Cyphon25]

3. IF you (the team) are 80-100 % likely to pay out years 1-3 of the contract anyway -- why not offer to guarantee more than just the reported $10 million?

The way I see it, is that the team wanted Bell. They were willing to pay in the right neighborhood. Why not offer to guarantee a bit more of money you were willing to spend anyways?

I don't disagree with your line of reasoning but it flips just as easily. If Bell knows they pay out the first 3 years or more 90% + of the time why not take the deal knowing the money is coming anyway? He is willing to bet on himself well, why not bet on himself?

[Dwinsgames]

You can easily write in a clause that drug suspensions or naughty instagram posts invalidate any and all guarantees etc.

We will never know what really went down because the Steelers don't discuss/leak this stuff. We can only speculate, but all I wanted to point out is that there is a version of this where for refusing to guarantee money you were going to pay ANYWAY, the team has a 2019 backfield of an unproven Conner and a totally unknown Samuel instead of a bona-fide high performing RB.

Doesn't necessarily mean that the Steelers were wrong, but I think it needs injected into the overall discussion that the Gurley contract #'s provide tangible evidence that there is a legitimate chain of logic that they were not totally right either.

Now all this can change at a drop of a hat once the actual real contract #'s for Gurley's deal come out and/or Bell's agent leaks more of the Steelers offer in response.

there is always 3 sides to the story .... we will only ever hear 2 of them at most ..

so like you said we likely will never know what REALLY happened in negotiations


Agent will leak things that make his client look like a victim and the team likely wont leak anything and if they do it will make Bell look like a villain if anything ( not normally a steeler move )

and then there is the truth where everything in in context and that story will never be told

[AtlantaDan]

Additionally the Steelers have always held to a pecking order when they do salaries. Bell wasn't going to get above Ben and AB.

The Rams are in a totally different situation in that Gurley and Aaron Donald (despite their refusal to pay him...he has to be pissed at this point) should dominant the salary cap table for them - since Goff and the wideouts are not all that special.

If the Rams do not do a deal with Goff in 2 years as he enters the last yera of his contract they will have screwed up the first overall pick in the 2016 draft - I would be surprised if they do not negotiate a QB market rate deal with Goff - having to concede they screwed up and bring in a new QB while Gurley is contracted to be in his prime presumably is not the plan

As far as the wideouts, the Rams just gave Brandin Cooks a 5 year/$80 million contract with $20 million guaranteed

I would not want to be the agent trying to calm Aaron Donald down this afternoon (which I would do by phone rather than in person :chuckle: )

[Mojouw]

I don't disagree with your line of reasoning but it flips just as easily. If Bell knows they pay out the first 3 years or more 90% + of the time why not take the deal knowing the money is coming anyway? He is willing to bet on himself well, why not bet on himself?

Catastrophic injury. Without guaranteed cash there is little protection for the players from career ending or life changing injury.

- - - Updated - - -


there is always 3 sides to the story .... we will only ever hear 2 of them at most ..

so like you said we likely will never know what REALLY happened in negotiations


Agent will leak things that make his client look like a victim and the team likely wont leak anything and if they do it will make Bell look like a villain if anything ( not normally a steeler move )

and then there is the truth where everything in in context and that story will never be told

Very true. Would be absolutely fascinating to know.

- - - Updated - - -


If the Rams do not do a deal with Goff in 2 years as he enters the last yera of his contract they will have screwed up the first overall pick in the 2016 draft - I would be surprised if they do not negotiate a QB market rate deal with Goff - having to concede they screwed up and bring in a new QB while Gurley is contracted to be in his prime presumably is not the plan

As far as the wideouts, the Rams just gave Brandin Cooks a 5 year/$80 million contract with $20 million guaranteed

I would not want to be the agent trying to calm Aaron Donald down this afternoon (which I would do by phone rather than in person :chuckle: )

I forgot about Cooks!

Still, at what point does Donald just tell the Rams to go to hell? If anyone in the league has a case to simply refuse to report, it would be Aaron Donald.

Wonder how a bunch of newish guys getting paid (Rams roster has some recent imports) and Donald kinda getting strung along plays out in the locker room? I'm not usually one to give a ton of credence to that stuff, but this is just getting weird.

[Dwinsgames]

I seem to remember many on here claiming "no RB is worth $15M/year". Now I am seeing Gurley deserves it because he's "better than Bell". Just wow.

I still contend in a passing league no RB is worthy of 15 mil a year , far to much cap space in this era

3 yards and a cloud of dust era with current cap figures ...sure why not but not in a passing league

[86WARD]

I still contend in a passing league no RB is worthy of 15 mil a year , far to much cap space in this era

3 yards and a cloud of dust era with current cap figures ...sure why not but not in a passing league

Although Gurley was a more productive receiver than Bell.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Todd Gurley’s deal makes sense, given the running back market

Posted by Mike Florio on July 24, 2018

When Rams running back Todd Gurley recently visited the #PFTPM podcast, he seemed to be more than willing (or maybe just regular willing) to wait his turn for a new contract. His turn unexpectedly came quickly.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the deal was negotiated over the past week or so. In the end, the Rams made Gurley an offer that it would have been difficult for him to refuse.

While the details still aren’t known (we’re efforting), the guts of the contract permit a basic level of analysis. The four-year, $60 million extension, when coupled with the money Gurley was due to make over the next two years, puts him under contract for six years, at a total value of $71.949 million. That’s a total average of $11.99 million over all six years, giving him the most valuable multi-year running back deal in the NFL, by far.

He’ll hold that title until Le'Veon Bell signs his new deal next year. And, in theory, Gurley could have waited for Bell to set a new bar next year. But Gurley was due to make only $2.3 million this year. That will now change, dramatically.

Given that the Rams could have tagged Gurley in 2020 (the tender would have been at least $11.556 million) and 2021 (at least $13.86 million), Gurley swapped a four-year, year-to-year total of $37.3 million for six years and nearly $72 million.

to read rest of article:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/24/todd-gurleys-deal-makes-sense-given-the-running-back-market/

[ALLD]

Gurley wants to play and Bell wants to party. When Bell said he wants to retire a Steeler I did not believe him..

[Dwinsgames]

Todd Gurley had more rushing yards, receiving yards, rushing TDs, receiving TDs, a better YPC, and a better yards per reception than Le'Veon Bell last year. He's also three years younger. In Summation , Le'Veon Bell may have messed up.

[Fire Goodell]

Although Gurley was a more productive receiver than Bell.

Hands down. 12YPC vs 7TPC.

[DesertSteel]

Todd Gurley’s deal makes sense, given the running back market

Posted by Mike Florio on July 24, 2018

When Rams running back Todd Gurley recently visited the #PFTPM podcast, he seemed to be more than willing (or maybe just regular willing) to wait his turn for a new contract. His turn unexpectedly came quickly.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the deal was negotiated over the past week or so. In the end, the Rams made Gurley an offer that it would have been difficult for him to refuse.

While the details still aren’t known (we’re efforting), the guts of the contract permit a basic level of analysis. The four-year, $60 million extension, when coupled with the money Gurley was due to make over the next two years, puts him under contract for six years, at a total value of $71.949 million. That’s a total average of $11.99 million over all six years, giving him the most valuable multi-year running back deal in the NFL, by far.

He’ll hold that title until Le'Veon Bell signs his new deal next year. And, in theory, Gurley could have waited for Bell to set a new bar next year. But Gurley was due to make only $2.3 million this year. That will now change, dramatically.

Given that the Rams could have tagged Gurley in 2020 (the tender would have been at least $11.556 million) and 2021 (at least $13.86 million), Gurley swapped a four-year, year-to-year total of $37.3 million for six years and nearly $72 million.

to read rest of article:

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/07/24/todd-gurleys-deal-makes-sense-given-the-running-back-market/
What makes him assume that Bell is going to get more than Gurley? I'm not so sure he will. Either way, I'm glad that it won't be the Steelers paying it.

[86WARD]

Todd Gurley had more rushing yards, receiving yards, rushing TDs, receiving TDs, a better YPC, and a better yards per reception than Le'Veon Bell last year. He's also three years younger. In Summation , Le'Veon Bell may have messed up.

My thoughts as well. Bell May have passed up the most money he’s going to see by not accepting the Steelers offer. Not only does he have to stay healthy this year, but he’s going to have to put produce Gurley in order to justify getting that type of contract next year. Where it could be possible, the added difficulty of having AB on the roster isn’t going to help. He’d better pray that that Madden Curse kicks in so he gets the bulk of the balls...lol

[steelreserve]

My thoughts as well. Bell May have passed up the most money he’s going to see by not accepting the Steelers offer. Not only does he have to stay healthy this year, but he’s going to have to put produce Gurley in order to justify getting that type of contract next year. Where it could be possible, the added difficulty of having AB on the roster isn’t going to help. He’d better pray that that Madden Curse kicks in so he gets the bulk of the balls...lol

Sorry dude, Tom Brady already takes the majority of those. Right to the chin, if you know what I mean.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

What makes him assume that Bell is going to get more than Gurley? I'm not so sure he will. Either way, I'm glad that it won't be the Steelers paying it.

If they could not get a deal done in 2 years, I think its unlikely that Bell gets one done next year with the Steelers. I do agree that Bell being older than Gurley with more carries might not get what Gurley got, but I still think somebody is gonna overpay him. They did with Mike Wallace and I too am glad the Steelers haven't overpaid long term for Bell.

[GBMelBlount]

Sorry dude, Tom Brady already takes the majority of those. Right to the chin, if you know what I mean.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d6/f6/4a/d6f64a26b546c21bb38fd193854c10c0.jpg

[hawaiiansteeler]

Bell reacts as Gurley sets new standard for RB contracts

Omnisport
Jul 24, 2018

Todd Gurley's contract extension with the Los Angeles Rams unsurprisngly attracted the attention of Le'Veon Bell following his latest failed attempt to get a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Gurley and the Rams agreed to a four-year extension worth $60million on Tuesday that has set the standard for Bell, and running backs across the NFL, as he seeks a lucrative contract of his own.

Bell congratulated Gurley and posted a tweet poking fun at those who believe his desire to earn a contract worth $17m annually is far-fetched.

He wrote of Gurley's deal: "And ppl [sic] thought I was trippin [sic]?..."

to read rest of article:

https://sports.yahoo.com/bell-reacts-gurley-sets-standard-003407763.html?src=rss

[steelreserve]

Todd Gurley's contract extension with the Los Angeles Rams unsurprisngly attracted the attention of Le'Veon Bell following his latest failed attempt to get a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Gurley and the Rams agreed to a four-year extension worth $60million on Tuesday that has set the standard for Bell, and running backs across the NFL, as he seeks a lucrative contract of his own.

Bell congratulated Gurley and posted a tweet poking fun at those who believe his desire to earn a contract worth $17m annually is far-fetched.

He wrote of Gurley's deal: "And ppl [sic] thought I was trippin [sic]?..."




They actually already offered you more than that and you turned it down AGAIN, you meathead.

Like I said, wasn't signing at any price. He just loves the money drama spotlight too much.

[BlackAndGold]

It's all about the guaranteed money.

[BlackAndGold]

Also, the Rams need to pay their best player already. Aaron Donald is getting disrespected.

[hawaiiansteeler]

It's all about the guaranteed money.

Because you know I'm all about that guaranteed money,
'Bout that guaranteed money, cuz I run like a bunny
I'm all 'bout that guaranteed money, 'bout that guaranteed money, no honey

We gon' take it to a whole another level
We know that Steelers offer ain't real
And ppl thought I was trippin
but I knew it wasn't a good deal

We know I run like a bunny,
'Cause you know I'm all about that guaranteed money,
'Bout that guaranteed money, no honey

[Fire Goodell]

AFAIK this guy would have been paid $33M if he played 2 seasons. For someone who's taking such a gamble by not signing and hoping for a bigger contract, he seems to awfully be unwilling to bet on himself to produce for 2 years.

Something shady about the guy, I wouldn't be surprised if some other team offers him a bunch of guaranteed money, and then he pulls a Julio Jones by holding out after he gets paid his guaranteed cash