How the Steelers plan for another late arrival by Le'Veon Bell

[AtlantaDan]

Starting new Bell thread with link to this P-G article since mods directed previous Bell thread to be closed after OTAs ended

See you in September: How the Steelers plan for another late arrival by Le'Veon Bell

The question facing the Steelers this summer is whether they should have a different plan in place for Bell once he does report around Labor Day. Even though Bell had another terrific season he got off to an uncharacteristically slow start, and the Steelers offense fought through an early season funk as a result.

“I think we did learn something,” offensive lineman Ramon Foster said....

“Reflecting on what transpired last year — and we did play against some good defenses early in the year, I will say — but I think we have to know we have to bring it a little more than them,” Foster said. “As great as Le’Veon is, we have to supplement what he does also. We have to make his job a lot easier. The fact that he’s not here, all of us are OK with that because we know what he’s bringing to the table. He comes right every year. He might take time to get going, but we have to be better prepared for that.”...

He has to do what he has to do. He has a family.”

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/06/17/The-Steelers-are-ready-to-give-a-little-more-until-Le-Veon-Bell-is-part-of-the-team-again-Ramon-Foster-Mike-Tomlin-Randy-Fichtner/stories/201806140177

No surprise the official party line from the players is to support Bell going for all he can get

But if Bell "comes right every year" how is it he "might take time to get going"?:rolleyes:

Bell did not get going until week 4 last season

http://www.nfl.com/player/le%27veonbell/2540175/gamelogs

So the Steelers apparently expect not be at full strength for the Browns, Chiefs & Bucs games

[teegre]

As I’ve mentioned in every Bell thread...

IMO, Bell’s slow start in 2017 was more due to him recovering from groin surgery than it was from time missed.

[steelreserve]

As I’ve mentioned in every Bell thread...

IMO, Bell’s slow start in 2017 was more due to him recovering from groin surgery than it was from time missed.


I don't know about that ...

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/leveon-bell-looks-sharp-in-basketball-game-following-offseason-groin-surgery/


Seemed to me like he got off to a slow start because he was rusty. He was rusty because he missed training camp. He missed training camp because of (contract bitching/groin, circle one).

Given that he probably won't come to training camp this year over contract bitching, it seems safe to say he would've missed it last year too, with or without the surgery. That may have just been the "official" line because it gave everyone a way out without looking like a jerk and pointing fingers. Whew!

[teegre]

I don't know about that ...

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/leveon-bell-looks-sharp-in-basketball-game-following-offseason-groin-surgery/


Seemed to me like he got off to a slow start because he was rusty. He was rusty because he missed training camp. He missed training camp because of (contract bitching/groin, circle one).

Given that he probably won't come to training camp this year over contract bitching, it seems safe to say he would've missed it last year too, with or without the surgery. That may have just been the "official" line because it gave everyone a way out without looking like a jerk and pointing fingers. Whew!

Ted Cruz just “looked good” in a basketball game against Jimmy Kimmel...

[steelreserve]

Ted Cruz just “looked good” in a basketball game against Jimmy Kimmel...

I didn't see that, but it sounds hilarious.

Anyway though, the point is more like ... if you're "too injured" to go to football practice in August, why were you playing basketball at more or less full speed in June? If there's one activity other than football that puts the most strain on those areas with quick cuts and shifting weight, basketball would be pretty high up on the list.

At any rate, recovery from surgery is usually like a month to 8 weeks if it's not repairing major tears, and the timing of him playing basketball seems to back that up. To then turn around and say injury prevented him from participating in the preseason, but was miraculously healed the very next week to allow him to play in a pro game ... well, that just sounds like a bunch of bullshit.

[tube517]

Ted Cruz just “looked good” in a basketball game against Jimmy Kimmel...

Ted Cruz = Grayson Allen. Should have been a blowout??? :noidea: :chuckle:

[hawaiiansteeler]

Ted Cruz just “looked good” in a basketball game against Jimmy Kimmel...

Jimmy Kimmel has a lot of holes in his game...

[teegre]

I didn't see that, but it sounds hilarious.

Anyway though, the point is more like ... if you're "too injured" to go to football practice in August, why were you playing basketball at more or less full speed in June? If there's one activity other than football that puts the most strain on those areas with quick cuts and shifting weight, basketball would be pretty high up on the list.

At any rate, recovery from surgery is usually like a month to 8 weeks if it's not repairing major tears, and the timing of him playing basketball seems to back that up. To then turn around and say injury prevented him from participating in the preseason, but was miraculously healed the very next week to allow him to play in a pro game ... well, that just sounds like a bunch of bullshit.

CRUZ vs. KIMMEL:
It was pretty cool, really. Jimmy Kimmel made a joke about how un-athletic Ted Cruz looked, referring to Cruz as a”blobfish”. Instead of being butthurt about it, Ted Cruz challenged Kimmel to a one-on-one basketball game (where the loser had to donate $5,000 to a charity of the winner’s choice).

Ted Cruz pretty much kicked his butt. :lol:

BASKETBALL:
Recovery to walk freely/full range of motion is 8 weeks. Recovery to play a charity basketball game: 4 months. Recovery to play a sport at a professional level: 8 months.

I remember a few years back, when Tom Brady (or some other high profile player) was recovering from a knee surgery, and was spotted at a charity basketball game. People went apeshit. But, a charity game it very different than playing in the NBA (and/or playing in the NFL).

[teegre]

Jimmy Kimmel has a lot of holes in his game...

That’s because he spends too much time rapping...

[st33lersguy]

4 of 5 seasons in his career he has either missed the start of the season entirely due to injuries/suspensions or started off slow due to not being at camp. Looks like he wants to make it 5 of 6. The dude is simply unreliable.

[Lady Steel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKWLeJcPRSQ


:lol:

[Neversatisfied]

4 of 5 seasons in his career he has either missed the start of the season entirely due to injuries/suspensions or started off slow due to not being at camp. Looks like he wants to make it 5 of 6. The dude is simply unreliable.

100% correct. Lev Bell suffers from the millennial disease know as Entitlement, he thinks due to his skill he can slack off and act like a thug and when Week 1 arrives it should be all hail King Bell. It's getting old and what he isn't taking into consideration is the average shelf life of an NFL running back.

[ALLD]

As I have stated in numerous threads over the years, many players would play for free and consider their salary as reimbursement for practicing. Bell takes it to the extreme.

[Craic]

100% correct. Lev Bell suffers from the millennial disease know as Entitlement, he thinks due to his skill he can slack off and act like a thug and when Week 1 arrives it should be all hail King Bell. It's getting old and what he isn't taking into consideration is the average shelf life of an NFL running back.

Slack off? That is one thing Bell has never been accused of. In fact, he's taken up boxing (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/leveon-bell-explains-why-he-has-taken-up-boxing-this-offseason-while-he-seeks-contract/)to keep himself in cardio shape and do so without excess damage to the knees. Also, whenever Bell was under contract, he showed up without a problem. So, the issue is not his work ethic. It's that he sees dollar bills instead of reality.

[Mojouw]

As I have stated in numerous threads over the years, many players would play for free and consider their salary as reimbursement for practicing. Bell takes it to the extreme.
I doubt any current player considers the physical toll on their body and the 24/7/365 level it takes to succeed in the NFL something they would do for free. That “love of the game” stuff is mostly misty eyed fluff pieces from sportswriters and agent speak. Most of these guys are dead eyed mercenaries when it comes to the contract stuff. Fans have loyalties. Players and teams conduct business.

Look at Peyton Manning’s career. Dude talked endlessly about his love for the game and desire to win. But he never took a penny less in contract negotiations to help the team fill out the gaping holes in the lineup around him.

[Fire Goodell]

Slack off? That is one thing Bell has never been accused of. In fact, he's taken up boxing (https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/leveon-bell-explains-why-he-has-taken-up-boxing-this-offseason-while-he-seeks-contract/)to keep himself in cardio shape and do so without excess damage to the knees. Also, whenever Bell was under contract, he showed up without a problem. So, the issue is not his work ethic. It's that he sees dollar bills instead of reality.

Have to agree, despite the guy kinda being a douche, he puts in work. You don't get a physique like his from slacking off, dudes got like a 12 pack lol

[IowaSteeler927]

I wish I could just decide to not go to work because I thought I wasn't getting paid enough... Well, I could do that I guess, but I'd definitely be out of a job if I did. :lol:

[EzraTank]

Jimmy Kimmel has a lot of holes in his game...

His worst hole is his mouth since he became a full blown Hollywood sellout. The man-show Kimmel was the polar opposite.

[DesertSteel]

Since we have never gone to the Super Bowl with Bell, who can present a valid argument? I think I would push the list to 12. Mind you, I'm not saying that there are 12 RBs just as good as Bell, but that we'd have equal or close chances of going to the Super Bowl with those 10-12 replacements.

Gerry Dulac Can Find 10 RBs That Give Steelers Equal Chance of Winning As Bell

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/06/gerry-dulac-can-find-10-rbs-that-give-steelers-equal-chance-of-winning-as-bell/

[hawaiiansteeler]

Since we have never gone to the Super Bowl with Bell, who can present a valid argument? I think I would push the list to 12. Mind you, I'm not saying that there are 12 RBs just as good as Bell, but that we'd have equal or close chances of going to the Super Bowl with those 10-12 replacements.

Gerry Dulac Can Find 10 RBs That Give Steelers Equal Chance of Winning As Bell

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/06/gerry-dulac-can-find-10-rbs-that-give-steelers-equal-chance-of-winning-as-bell/

especially when you consider all the $$$ saved that could be used for other positions.

like an inside linebacker maybe :stirthepot:

[Mojouw]

Since we have never gone to the Super Bowl with Bell, who can present a valid argument? I think I would push the list to 12. Mind you, I'm not saying that there are 12 RBs just as good as Bell, but that we'd have equal or close chances of going to the Super Bowl with those 10-12 replacements.

Gerry Dulac Can Find 10 RBs That Give Steelers Equal Chance of Winning As Bell

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/06/gerry-dulac-can-find-10-rbs-that-give-steelers-equal-chance-of-winning-as-bell/

Who are they?

Using this list - https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=Y

There are not 12 guys at the RB position who can get you 1500-2000 yards from scrimmage per season. There are like 6, counting Bell.

Again, I don't want to rehash the dollar value and attitudes of Leveon Bell. But the low-level effort by Steelers focused media to subtly rewrite the narrative that Bell is "just a guy" is just insulting to most of our intelligence. Because "an equal chance of winning" with a list of 10-12 guys means that Bell is basically a slightly above average NFL RB. I mean there are only 32 starting backs in the league. So do the math.

I mean that is the same rough argument as stating that there are two dozen WRs in the league that would give the Steelers the same chance of winning as AB.

[Craic]

Who are they?

Using this list - https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=Y

There are not 12 guys at the RB position who can get you 1500-2000 yards from scrimmage per season. There are like 6, counting Bell.

Again, I don't want to rehash the dollar value and attitudes of Leveon Bell. But the low-level effort by Steelers focused media to subtly rewrite the narrative that Bell is "just a guy" is just insulting to most of our intelligence. Because "an equal chance of winning" with a list of 10-12 guys means that Bell is basically a slightly above average NFL RB. I mean there are only 32 starting backs in the league. So do the math.

I mean that is the same rough argument as stating that there are two dozen WRs in the league that would give the Steelers the same chance of winning as AB.

Or 10-12 guys in the league that gives the Steelers the same chance of winning as Ben R.

[DesertSteel]

Who are they?


Hunt, Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, McCoy, Fournette, Johnson, Kamara, Ingram, Gordon, Freeman, Lewis. There's 12 that I'd feel perfectly capable of giving us a good enough running game to get to the Super Bowl. There's no need to respond that Bell is better, because that's not my argument.


There are not 12 guys at the RB position who can get you 1500-2000 yards from scrimmage per season. There are like 6, counting Bell.

So you're saying that gaining 1500-2000 is a prerequisite for getting to the Super Bowl? Do you have any evidence to support that theory?



Again, I don't want to rehash the dollar value and attitudes of Leveon Bell. But the low-level effort by Steelers focused media to subtly rewrite the narrative that Bell is "just a guy" is just insulting to most of our intelligence. Because "an equal chance of winning" with a list of 10-12 guys means that Bell is basically a slightly above average NFL RB. I mean there are only 32 starting backs in the league. So do the math.

I mean that is the same rough argument as stating that there are two dozen WRs in the league that would give the Steelers the same chance of winning as AB.
Bell is not the only RB who is not "just a guy." Seems that you missed my point. I didn't say that there were 12 RBs just as good (though I'd say there are at least 5), but that we could get to the Super Bowl with them.

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Or 10-12 guys in the league that gives the Steelers the same chance of winning as Ben R.
How many QBs have been to the Super Bowl since Ben last went? There's the answer to your question.

[Mojouw]

Hunt, Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, McCoy, Fournette, Johnson, Kamara, Ingram, Gordon, Freeman, Lewis. There's 12 that I'd feel perfectly capable of giving us a good enough running game to get to the Super Bowl. There's no need to respond that Bell is better, because that's not my argument.

So you're saying that gaining 1500-2000 is a prerequisite for getting to the Super Bowl? Do you have any evidence to support that theory?


Bell is not the only RB who is not "just a guy." Seems that you missed my point. I didn't say that there were 12 RBs just as good (though I'd say there are at least 5), but that we could get to the Super Bowl with them.

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How many QBs have been to the Super Bowl since Ben last went? There's the answer to your question.

"As good a chance" and "getting to the SB" are not the same thing. If I have a 95% chance of getting drunk tonight because my favorite drinking buddy won the lottery versus a 55% chance because I'm drinking alone in the dark -- I'm still likely going to get drunk, but the chance is not the same. Poor analogy (and I'm not drinking alone in the dark!) but the point holds.

1500-2000 yards from scrimmage is what Leveon Bell is responsible for in the current Steelers offense. Those yards would need replaced/replicated if he were to leave. Based on last year's stats, the only backs in the league who can come close to the top of that range are Gurley and Hunt. The rest fall 400 yards or more short. Those 400+ yards have to come from somewhere.

Ben R and the passing game is going to be most people's answer, but Ben put up 4251 yards last season. He only topped that twice in his career (4328 in 2009 and 4952 in 2014) and equaled it one other time (4261 in 2013). So just a look at the stats and math indicates that when Bell leaves, the offense is likely going to be down about say 400 yards from scrimmage over the course of a season. Now that likely isn't enough to really change all that much since it is about 25 yards per game. But, I have to imagine that if you give an offense 25 yards less per game it has to negatively impact their chances of winning those games. They still may win them all and go from 90% down to 80%, but it isn't the same.

And that is my point. Dulac and others are acting like you can stand anyone back there and the results will be roughly the same. They simply won't. Based on raw #'s the only other players in the league who matches Bell across categories is Gurley. Everyone else falls far short in one category or another. Take YAC. Bell is 3rd in a cluster of 4 RBs at the top (https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=C&sort=recyac) and then it falls off. So Bell is clearly doing something besides taking a pass in the flat and falling down. Dulac argues that Bell "Doesn't make Ben better" -- well WTF is YAC measuring then? What about pass blocking? Bell is one of the best in the business. Watch the first JAX game from last year. At least one of the interceptions is because Conner got Ben plastered missing a block. That pick was when the wheels came off in that game. Think losing that game had an impact on the team's chances of going to the SB?

Is a Steelers offense built on the foundation of Ben R, a fleet of WR talent, and a lesser RB or a RB by committee more than capable of winning a SB? Absolutely. Are their chances the same? No. Is that difference enough to matter? We are certainly going to find out in about 18 months.

[AtlantaDan]

Who are they?

Using this list - https://www.footballdb.com/stats/stats.html?mode=Y

There are not 12 guys at the RB position who can get you 1500-2000 yards from scrimmage per season. There are like 6, counting Bell.

Of course if your measuring stick for 21st century success in the NFL is the Patriots (which it should be), the only time the Pats won the Super Bowl and had a clear stud at RB was Corey Dillon in 2004 (345 carries - 1635 yards)

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2004.htm

Otherwise no one back carried the entire load and achieved eye popping stats.

Links to other Pats SB winning seasons here with lead RB stats

2001
Antowaine Smith - 1157 rushing/192 receiving
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2001.htm

2003
Kevin Faulk - 638 rushing/440 receiving
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2003.htm

2014
Shane Vereen- 391 rushing/447 receiving
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2014.htm

2016
LaGarrette Blount - 1161 rushing/38 receiving
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2016.htm

IMO if having an All Pro running back was essential to winning a Super Bowl the market rate for RBs would reflect that

I agree with Dulac that what is nice to have and what is essential in winning a Super Bowl are not the same

[Mojouw]

Why is the argument that "good enough to win a super bowl" and "have the same chance" not being the same thing so hard to understand?

[AtlantaDan]

Why is the argument that "good enough to win a super bowl" and "have the same chance" not being the same thing so hard to understand?

In terms of having the same chance, the Pats won 4 out of the past 17 Super Bowls without a Bell level back - which is 4 more than the Steelers have made with Bell as the main RB, when he did not make it through the playoffs in three of his four playoff seasons

I would not be surprised that if you went through the past 17 seasons you would find the majority of SB champions did not have an All Pro level talent at RB

Two of them played in Pittsburgh

2005
Willie Parker - 1225 rushing/218 receiving
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2005.htm

2008
Mewelde Moore - 588 rushing/320 receiving (more combined yards than Parker)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2008.htm

If your goal is to have a better chance to win a fantasy league then putting so many chips on Bell is logical - in terms of devoting a big share of your salary cap to him when the measuring stick is Lombardis, not so much. The Steelers had good reason to fall in love with Bell starting in in 2014, but since this no longer the 70s, having a great RB is no longer the key to success that it was when Csonka and Franco roamed the field. The Steelers arguably are using a flawed model for winning another championship

Tomlin put it best in 2008 - "Every morning when I come to work I walk past five Lombardis, not five rushing titles"

[DesertSteel]

Why is the argument that "good enough to win a super bowl" and "have the same chance" not being the same thing so hard to understand?
It's an easy formula. How many rings does Bell have? You act as if it's Tom Brady that will be replaced.

[teegre]

It's an easy formula. How many rings does Bell have? You act as if it's Tom Brady that will be replaced.

How many rings does Gurley have? Elliott?? Kamara???

[teegre]

Along those same lines...

How many SuperBowls has AB won?

[st33lersguy]

Sucker Punch has won 3 Super Bowls in the past 4 years as part of a by-committee backfield.

Meanwhile Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, RB Murderer, Adrian Peterson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Gale Sayers never even made it to the Super Bowl and collectively, those guys rarely sniffed Super Bowls. Walter Payton didn't enjoy any team related success either until the Bears legendary defense was built

[Mojouw]

No one is saying you cant win a super bowl without Leveon Bell. No one is saying that Bell needs to get paid a dumptruck of money or the team will crater.

All I am saying is that if you take 2000 yards from scrimmage away from the offense and replace it with roughly 1500 yards from scrimmage spread across say Conner and Samuels with less YAC and a moderate downgrade in blitz pick-up — then the teams chances of winning a SB have not improved. Nor have they likely stayed the same. They have taken a downturn. How much? Like I said, we will find out in 2019.

Plus everyone makes an implicit connection that less $$$ to a RB means roster changing moves elsewhere. Where? We just watched an entire off season cycle of player movement and I do not recall a single Ryan SHazier or prime level James Harrison linebacker changing teams.Unless anyone thinks that Anthony Hitchens and Trent Murphy were the missing puzzle pieces?

Maybe 4 players reach UFA each season that actually can change a team. I can not think of a single player in the past two seasons that paying Bell caused the Steelers to miss on. They went hard after Hightower and brought in Haden, McDonald, and Wilcox for like a combined 17 million or so.

All of this doesn’t really matter and next season will provide a stark answer to all of these questions because Bell is as good as gone. Mostly people are just finding ways to justify hating the guy because he is a total jackass.

It is like when Bonds left. Total jerk, but the team wasn’t better from a talent pov

[teegre]

a moderate downgrade in blitz pick-up

This is the part of playing RB that is commonly overlooked.

I read (or heard) a phenomenal stat (PFF???) that Bell had never missed a blocking assignment in his entire career.

[Mojouw]

This is the part of playing RB that is commonly overlooked.

I read (or heard) a phenomenal stat (PFF???) that Bell had never missed a blocking assignment in his entire career.

I'd believe it. It is one of the reasons that DWill and all the other RBs last few years can't get on the field. Bell is one of the best in the league at stoning a late rusher.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Craic]

How many QBs have been to the Super Bowl since Ben last went? There's the answer to your question.

"Same chance of winning" was my question. Since 2005, the QBs that have won outside of Ben are Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Nick Foles. Peyton Manning is no longer playing. I doubt anyone here would argue Flacco or Foles is as good as Ben. So, that leaves us with four QBs.

But, let's go with your easier hurdle of getting to the SB. Now, we have the above list plus Hasselbeck, Grossman, Warner, Kaepernick, Newton, and Matt Ryan. So, only six more QBs in total, but Hasselbeck, Grossman, and Warner are no longer playing. I also doubt anyone would argue Kaepernick comes close to Ben. So, that leaves two.

Thus, same chance of winning a SB? Your answer is four other QBs. Same chance of getting there? Your answer is six other QBs. Both are a long way from 10-12.

[DesertSteel]

How many rings does Gurley have? Elliott?? Kamara???
That's a great point! A team doesn't need a great Running Back to win the Super Bowl.

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"Same chance of winning" was my question. Since 2005, the QBs that have won outside of Ben are Peyton and Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Flacco, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Nick Foles. Peyton Manning is no longer playing. I doubt anyone here would argue Flacco or Foles is as good as Ben. So, that leaves us with four QBs.

But, let's go with your easier hurdle of getting to the SB. Now, we have the above list plus Hasselbeck, Grossman, Warner, Kaepernick, Newton, and Matt Ryan. So, only six more QBs in total, but Hasselbeck, Grossman, and Warner are no longer playing. I also doubt anyone would argue Kaepernick comes close to Ben. So, that leaves two.

Thus, same chance of winning a SB? Your answer is four other QBs. Same chance of getting there? Your answer is six other QBs. Both are a long way from 10-12.
I can't disagree that a great QB is needed to win the Super Bowl, with very few exceptions. The same cannot be historically said about Runnng Backs.

[teegre]

That's a great point! A team doesn't need a great Running Back to win the Super Bowl.

Yea, but you mentioned those RBs as giving the Steelers “just as much of a chance” as Bell at winning a SuperBowl... which is currently 0%.

So... who exactly would you want as our RB??? :huh:

[hawaiiansteeler]

who exactly would you want as our RB?

for this upcoming Super Bowl winning season, I'll take this guy:

https://s3media.247sports.com/Uploads/Assets/825/141/6_5141825.jpg

[DesertSteel]

Yea, but you mentioned those RBs as giving the Steelers “just as much of a chance” as Bell at winning a SuperBowl... which is currently 0%.

So... who exactly would you want as our RB??? :huh:

I'd like a guy who can take it to the house every now and then. That's one thing Bell can't do.

Bell is the guy in 2018, so this is all about 2019 and beyond. These other guys are hypotheticals as we will likely replace him through the draft.

[Craic]

I can't disagree that a great QB is needed to win the Super Bowl, with very few exceptions. The same cannot be historically said about Runnng Backs.
In all honesty, believe it or not, I agree with you. Statistically speaking, RBs do not win SBs. However, I think having Bell gives us a much better chance of getting to the SB than not having him or replacing him with an average to above average RB.

(Oh, and after rereading my last post, I apologize if it came off snippy or sharp. It wasn't intended that way, although I can see how it'd be taken like that. Sorry.)

[DesertSteel]

In all honesty, believe it or not, I agree with you. Statistically speaking, RBs do not win SBs. However, I think having Bell gives us a much better chance of getting to the SB than not having him or replacing him with an average to above average RB.

(Oh, and after rereading my last post, I apologize if it came off snippy or sharp. It wasn't intended that way, although I can see how it'd be taken like that. Sorry.)
No doubt that Bell is an asset. But we all know that $15M a year is a big investment and may cause the overall product to suffer. A $6M RB along with a $5M ILB and a $4M OLB may yield a better result. Mix and match the positions/dollars however you like.

Thanks for the gesture Craic! :)

[hawaiiansteeler]

No doubt that Bell is an asset. But we all know that $15M a year is a big investment and may cause the overall product to suffer. A $6M RB along with a $5M ILB and a $4M OLB may yield a better result. Mix and match the positions/dollars however you like.

the Seahawks just signed their first round RB Rashaad Penny to a 4 year rookie contract paying him roughly $6 million or $1.5 million/year.

I honestly think we would have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl by selecting a RB in the first round next year and giving him a similar contract and using all the monies saved from not giving Bell his $15-17 million/year to address other positions of weakness such as ILB and/or OLB as you suggested.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I'd like a guy who can take it to the house every now and then. That's one thing Bell can't do.

Bell is the guy in 2018, so this is all about 2019 and beyond. These other guys are hypotheticals as we will likely replace him through the draft.

Ill take Bell's flurry of 10+ yard plays over a really long run that's pretty rare anyways if you look at the statistics

[steelreserve]

Ill take Bell's flurry of 10+ yard plays over a really long run that's pretty rare anyways if you look at the statistics

Yeah, or even the fact that he keeps driving and falls forward, turning a no-gain or a 1-yard loss into a 3-yard positive gain. 3rd and 4 is a hell of a lot better than the 3rd and 9 or 3rd and 11 we would be getting with 1-yard Willie Parker, or most of the other clowns we tried between Bettis and Bell.

Long TD runs are way overrated if you ask me - you get what, maybe 3 of them in a good year, whereas the guy without "next-level" speed will get tackled after 30 yards, but you probably score a good proportion of that time anyway, when he follows it up with another first down run and another one after that. Over the course of a season, it's much better to have the guy who will consistently pick up first downs and sustain drives, than the streaky guy with great speed - you'll score a lot more touchdowns.

Having said that, $15 million or more is way too much to spend for that capability. Really what we need is a successful running game that sustains drives, and all you need for that is just a stocky guy who's hard to bring down. Plenty of those exist who are not named Le'veon Bell-Einstein, whether it's in the draft or for half the cost as a free agent. Probably the draft is the more likely way for us to find one, given that you can't count on always having the guy you want available in FA and actually signing him.

[86WARD]

The anger towards Bell now, compared to the love for Bell then is hilarious.

[DesertSteel]

Ill take Bell's flurry of 10+ yard plays over a really long run that's pretty rare anyways if you look at the statistics
Bell was tied for 34th in the league in 20+ yard runs last year. He had 3 with a long of 27. The leaders had 12. The top 10 all had runs of 40+ yards. It's a hole in his game. I'm just saying that in our 2019 RB, I'd like to see more home run ability. In the meantime, I'll appreciate Bell's 5-10 yard runs and his 4.0 YPC.

- - - Updated - - -


the Seahawks just signed their first round RB Rashaad Penny to a 4 year rookie contract paying him roughly $6 million or $1.5 million/year.

I honestly think we would have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl by selecting a RB in the first round next year and giving him a similar contract and using all the monies saved from not giving Bell his $15-17 million/year to address other positions of weakness such as ILB and/or OLB as you suggested.
I agree with your sentiments.

[Mojouw]

I keep reading about these linebackers that are going to be sitting out there as Free Agents that would put the defense over the top. Who?

Seriously -- go to this website http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2017/linebacker/ and play around with the lists.

In 2017 they let Timmons go because they didn't WANT to pay him not because they couldn't pay him. They swung and missed on Hightower not because of the $$$ but because he didn't want to leave New England. They could have signed Navaro Bowman, but at the time he signed, they thought they were good and Bowman didn't want to go anywhere and be a back-up. So again, not money.

In 2018, honestly I'm good with Bostic over the higher $$$ LBs on that list. Your mileage may vary. I don't see a single pass rusher that changes a thing.

In 2019, I guess Clowney or Mosley if the actually make it to UFA status. Unless a body part falls off for either of them, I suspect they will get re-signed. A 35 year old Terrell Suggs?

Everyone wants to have this big chunk of cap change to spend it on some unnamed and possibly nonexistent player or players. Meanwhile, one of the best offensive players in football is standing right there.

[AtlantaDan]

Everyone wants to have this big chunk of cap change to spend it on some unnamed and possibly nonexistent player or players. Meanwhile, one of the best offensive players in football is standing right there.

Are you referring to Chris Boswell?:rolleyes:

Keep an eye on that deal still not being done as the Steelers go through the couch for change as they tie up $$$ in repeatedly tagging Bell

[DesertSteel]

Are you referring to Chris Boswell?:rolleyes:

Keep an eye on that deal still not being done as the Steelers go through the couch for change as they tie up $$$ in repeatedly tagging Bell
Seriously!! When is Boz going to get done?!

[steelreserve]

Isn't Boswell an RFA this year?

[AtlantaDan]

Isn't Boswell an RFA this year?

RFA for 2018 season - Boswell signed his RFA tender for $2.9 million for this upcoming season

Unrestricted free agent after the 2018 season

https://overthecap.com/player/chris-boswell/3378/

[GBMelBlount]

Are you referring to Chris Boswell?:rolleyes:

Keep an eye on that deal still not being done as the Steelers go through the couch for change as they tie up $$$ in repeatedly tagging Bell

We are tying up a lot of money in a 4.0 ypc running back who gets a lot of dump passes, that can be distributed elsewhere.

[Mojouw]

I'm not sure I'd want to pay Bell if I was the Steelers. But if having money to spread around, then why pay a premium price for a league average corner with a troubling injury history while Sutton rots on the bench? I mean I know he's a great guy and all.

[Craic]

We are tying up a lot of money in a 4.0 ypc running back who gets a lot of dump passes, that can be distributed elsewhere.

You keep hammering that 4.0 YPC, but you do realize another back would have had 2.0 YPC last year, right? The line seriously struggled for a good portion of last year as did Ben.

[GBMelBlount]

You keep hammering that 4.0 YPC, but you do realize another back would have had 2.0 YPC last year, right? The line seriously struggled for a good portion of last year as did Ben.

What did Conner average last year?

[DesertSteel]

I'm not sure I'd want to pay Bell if I was the Steelers. But if having money to spread around, then why pay a premium price for a league average corner with a troubling injury history while Sutton rots on the bench? I mean I know he's a great guy and all.
I think Haden was better than average last year and likely this is his last year with the team.

[DesertSteel]

You keep hammering that 4.0 YPC, but you do realize another back would have had 2.0 YPC last year, right? The line seriously struggled for a good portion of last year as did Ben.
I don't believe that for a second. They could draft a guy in the 6th round to get 4.0 YPC. Conversely, put Bell on another team and ask the OL to hold their blocks for Bell to be patient and see how that goes?

[Mojouw]

I think Haden was better than average last year and likely this is his last year with the team.

Most observers don't see it the same way:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2754252-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-outside-cornerbacks-of-2017-season#slide6

This has Haden on spot above....Ross Cockerell!

53. Joe Haden, Pittsburgh Steelers
Coverage: 15/25
Reaction: 17/25
Recovery: 14/25
Tackling: 8/15
Position Value: 10/10
Overall Grade: 64/100
In August, the Steelers handed Haden a three-year contract that was essentially a one-year, low-money deal with two option years in case he looked good enough to keep past 2017. The veteran had a nondescript season—like the last several he had with the Cleveland Browns—as he was still uneven with his eye discipline and wanted to jump every underneath route.
He's almost purely a vertical zone defender at this point, making him a fit for the team's scheme, but his limited speed and reliability were issues once again.

Even if you strongly disagree with that ranking, Haden is nowhere to be found on any Top 25 CB list I can find on the Google machines. But he is the 9th highest paid CB in the league. I like Joe Haden. Joe Haden seems like a great guy. Joe Haden still can play in the NFL. Joe Haden is extremely overpaid. Haden had a lone INT and 7 passes defensed in 11 starts last year (make it 10 because he got hurt partway through one of those).

Leveon Bell is asking to be overpaid. Leveon Bell still produces top 5 offensive numbers. I mean if you are going to overpay anyone...

[86WARD]

We are tying up a lot of money in a 4.0 ypc running back who gets a lot of dump passes, that can be distributed elsewhere.

So what back is going to come in and get a better YPC and catch the “dump passes”. There’s a reason they are dump passes...because they couldn’t be distributed elsewhere. Maybe they could get them to James...but according to most, he “stinks”, McDonald’s hands “stink”. Maybe AB or JuJu? Well if they were open, or even close to open, I’m pretty confident Ben wouldn’t be afraid to throw their way. So again...who are you replacing Bell with and what other MLB are you spending the remaining balance of that contract on?

[AtlantaDan]

You keep hammering that 4.0 YPC, but you do realize another back would have had 2.0 YPC last year, right?

Anything is possible, but FWIW the average YPC for other backs were Conner 4.5, Ridley 4.2, and Fitz 4.2

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/2017.htm

There are a variety of reasons Bell’s YPC may have dropped significantly, but at age 26 it is highly unlikely he has as many peak years in his future than he does in his past

Peak Age For A NFL Running Back

A running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career at 29 or 30.

http://apexfantasyleagues.com/2018/01/peak-age-nfl-running-back/

[steelreserve]

Most observers don't see it the same way:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2754252-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-outside-cornerbacks-of-2017-season#slide6

This has Haden on spot above....Ross Cockerell!

53. Joe Haden, Pittsburgh Steelers
Coverage: 15/25
Reaction: 17/25
Recovery: 14/25
Tackling: 8/15
Position Value: 10/10
Overall Grade: 64/100
In August, the Steelers handed Haden a three-year contract that was essentially a one-year, low-money deal with two option years in case he looked good enough to keep past 2017. The veteran had a nondescript season—like the last several he had with the Cleveland Browns—as he was still uneven with his eye discipline and wanted to jump every underneath route.
He's almost purely a vertical zone defender at this point, making him a fit for the team's scheme, but his limited speed and reliability were issues once again.

Even if you strongly disagree with that ranking, Haden is nowhere to be found on any Top 25 CB list I can find on the Google machines. But he is the 9th highest paid CB in the league. I like Joe Haden. Joe Haden seems like a great guy. Joe Haden still can play in the NFL. Joe Haden is extremely overpaid. Haden had a lone INT and 7 passes defensed in 11 starts last year (make it 10 because he got hurt partway through one of those).

Leveon Bell is asking to be overpaid. Leveon Bell still produces top 5 offensive numbers. I mean if you are going to overpay anyone...


Problem is, if you overpay Bell what he wants, that's enough money to pay Haden AND the #2 running back in the league.

Yes, yes - when are we going to magically have the #2 running back in the league turn up on the open market in free agency - we're not. But you could pay two very good players with the amount of money Bell is demanding, that's the point. Then try to draft what you're missing. Makes that much easier.

I don't think Haden has been as bad as a lot of the hate would suggest. He's been decent to pretty-good when available. Not great, not terrible. The defense does look noticeably better when he's on the field. Or looks lost fairly frequently when he's not, take your pick. I'd definitely call him an asset, at least for the next year or two.

CB is one of those positions where our own deficiencies made the "value" of a competent player more to US than the average market value. Like - in the Blake days, CB was such a weak spot that it caused a cascading failure across the entire secondary and the entire defense. I strongly believe that Will Allen, for example, took a lot more shit than he deserved because the incompetence of the Bozo next to him put him in a lot of no-win situations. And the rest of the defense suffered because it ended up in a lot of situations where it had to sell out in order to stop one particular play - it could be easily led around by any halfway decent offense like a dog blindly chasing a stick, and then you throw the stick off a cliff.

So really, needing a competent CB was a $9 million problem to us. Sucks if you could've gotten one for $5 million and you overpaid, but on the whole the transaction works out in our favor. Now, if we'd needed three competent DBs, or a CB plus two LBs and a defensive end, then it's not a $9 million problem, it's a problem where you have to have a bigger overall plan to improve the defense within a reasonable budget. But given the general state of our defense, being one piece away from "good enough," it makes sense. Kind of like ILB this season. You'd get more value out of just a solid player at that position than most other teams would.

That's a big mistake that teams like the Raiders, Redskins, etc. make - doing a big-money "splash" deal at one position when they need three or four pieces ... well, you actually screwed yourself because your starting point was not good enough that you just needed one piece. Now you're going to have two or three UDFA's trying to fill important roles, and you've really dug yourself a hole that might take years to get out of. A big difference between the Steelers and those teams.

Oh, the other point - I don't think RB is one of those positions for us right now, in fact it's the opposite. The rest of the pieces on offense are good enough - in fact, they're so good you could call it overloaded - that the difference Bell makes compared to a RB who is merely good, is diminished, not magnified. We won't be better off 1-for-1 if we go that route, but I do think the impact will be less than many people think.

[DesertSteel]

Most observers don't see it the same way:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2754252-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-outside-cornerbacks-of-2017-season#slide6

You say "most observers" and then provide one source - bleacher report. I've heard commentators say that he played well and I've heard some say that he didn't. Plus, he was coming off an injury year. At 29, I'm really interested to see what he has left this year. To say that he's on par with Cockerell makes the evaluation a joke, to be honest.

But you are right in that lots of guys are overpaid. But the inflation is more tied to the position than the player. Teams aren't willing to overpay for Running Backs. They will for LT's, CB's and other positions.

[Mojouw]

You say "most observers" and then provide one source - bleacher report. I've heard commentators say that he played well and I've heard some say that he didn't. Plus, he was coming off an injury year. At 29, I'm really interested to see what he has left this year. To say that he's on par with Cockerell makes the evaluation a joke, to be honest.

But you are right in that lots of guys are overpaid. But the inflation is more tied to the position than the player. Teams aren't willing to overpay for Running Backs. They will for LT's, CB's and other positions.

I mean literally type "2017 nfl cornerback rankings" into Google and read any of the lists provided on the first 3 pages (that's as far as I went) and you will not find Joe Haden listed in anyone's top 10 or top 25. Google "Cornerback Salary" and you will find Haden at #9 - in the entire league.

As for the injury thing, so was Bell. But in the case of Bell that is not an argument that holds water but for Haden it is? Haden has had a major injury several seasons in a row. For him it is just a thing that happens and we are supposed to be positive about it. For Bell, he misses games and it is another reason to cut him loose.

I mean at some point, it would be great if we could agree to use the same standards in evaluating a guy. That's most likely what NFL teams do. But, lately, all evaluations of Bell are heavily colored by emotion.

So if the argument is that you can not pay one guy too much money when other comparable guys are available - then you have to apply it to everyone on the roster, not just the players we don't like. If we argue that Conner and Samuels can equate Bell or be "good enough" then why can't the same argument be made for Sutton and Allen replacing Haden?

As for the Cockrell thing - that's why I posted it. I'm not certain that AT THIS POINT in their careers there is really a massive gap between the two.

- - - Updated - - -


Problem is, if you overpay Bell what he wants, that's enough money to pay Haden AND the #2 running back in the league.

Yes, yes - when are we going to magically have the #2 running back in the league turn up on the open market in free agency - we're not. But you could pay two very good players with the amount of money Bell is demanding, that's the point. Then try to draft what you're missing. Makes that much easier.

I don't think Haden has been as bad as a lot of the hate would suggest. He's been decent to pretty-good when available. Not great, not terrible. The defense does look noticeably better when he's on the field. Or looks lost fairly frequently when he's not, take your pick. I'd definitely call him an asset, at least for the next year or two.

CB is one of those positions where our own deficiencies made the "value" of a competent player more to US than the average market value. Like - in the Blake days, CB was such a weak spot that it caused a cascading failure across the entire secondary and the entire defense. I strongly believe that Will Allen, for example, took a lot more shit than he deserved because the incompetence of the Bozo next to him put him in a lot of no-win situations. And the rest of the defense suffered because it ended up in a lot of situations where it had to sell out in order to stop one particular play - it could be easily led around by any halfway decent offense like a dog blindly chasing a stick, and then you throw the stick off a cliff.

So really, needing a competent CB was a $9 million problem to us. Sucks if you could've gotten one for $5 million and you overpaid, but on the whole the transaction works out in our favor. Now, if we'd needed three competent DBs, or a CB plus two LBs and a defensive end, then it's not a $9 million problem, it's a problem where you have to have a bigger overall plan to improve the defense within a reasonable budget. But given the general state of our defense, being one piece away from "good enough," it makes sense. Kind of like ILB this season. You'd get more value out of just a solid player at that position than most other teams would.

That's a big mistake that teams like the Raiders, Redskins, etc. make - doing a big-money "splash" deal at one position when they need three or four pieces ... well, you actually screwed yourself because your starting point was not good enough that you just needed one piece. Now you're going to have two or three UDFA's trying to fill important roles, and you've really dug yourself a hole that might take years to get out of. A big difference between the Steelers and those teams.

Oh, the other point - I don't think RB is one of those positions for us right now, in fact it's the opposite. The rest of the pieces on offense are good enough - in fact, they're so good you could call it overloaded - that the difference Bell makes compared to a RB who is merely good, is diminished, not magnified. We won't be better off 1-for-1 if we go that route, but I do think the impact will be less than many people think.

I'm not certain I disagree with much of that - or maybe even any of it. But we can change a few words and shift the ideas around just a bit and it could be a post about RBs involving everyone between Willie Parker to Leveon Bell.

And overpaying for a CB because of past failures and roster issues is not a reason for doing anything going forward. Cam Sutton looked like a player moving up in the league last year and Joe Haden looked like one on the way down. If Allen comes along, why pay Haden a ton of money? It is mercenary as hell, but it isn't like I really care about these guys. I would say the same thing about Bell IF and WHEN Conner and Samuels demonstrate that they can play RB in the NFL with even a moderate degree of competency. To date, they have not done that.

[DesertSteel]

Cockrell = Haden
J. James = Gronk

[Mojouw]

Cockrell = Haden
J. James = Gronk

I mean what do you want to use as a performance criteria?

Ints? Haden had 1 Cockrell had 3.
Passes Defensed? Haden had 7. Rusty had 11.
Tackles? Haden had 20 versus Cockrell's 50.

I am not arguing that the 2017 or 2018 Steelers would be better off with Ross Cockrell as their starting CB. But I am arguing that Joe Haden does not perform on the field like a 9-11 million a year player. But no one seems to tear their hair out and it doesn't seem to weekly generate dozen page long message board threads. Yet the logic is roughly the same. Therefore a good portion of the Leveon Bell shouldn't be signed and the Steelers can be better off using the resources in other ways argument has to be emotional - at least to my flawed line of thinking. And that's fine, but it needs to be acknowledged.

[steelreserve]

I'm not certain I disagree with much of that - or maybe even any of it. But we can change a few words and shift the ideas around just a bit and it could be a post about RBs involving everyone between Willie Parker to Leveon Bell.

And overpaying for a CB because of past failures and roster issues is not a reason for doing anything going forward. Cam Sutton looked like a player moving up in the league last year and Joe Haden looked like one on the way down. If Allen comes along, why pay Haden a ton of money? It is mercenary as hell, but it isn't like I really care about these guys. I would say the same thing about Bell IF and WHEN Conner and Samuels demonstrate that they can play RB in the NFL with even a moderate degree of competency. To date, they have not done that.

Imagine how nice of a position we'll be in if/when Sutton and Allen have shown themselves to be capable CBs ... we'll have Bell's money AND Haden's money to use on other stuff. And most likely Shazier's $9 million too.

I get what you're saying about the past RB situation given our recent history there, but I think it's a different situation for a few reasons. One is that between Bettis and Bell, the rest of the offense was not quite the powerhouse it is now. Not counting Willie Parker, since I think he was a problem rather than an asset, but that's another story. Anyway, during that entire stretch, either the WRs were not quite as good, the line was not as good, the depth was a problem, we had smaller thorns in our side like having no real fullback (not a killer in itself, but becomes a problem when it prompts you to try a bunch of useless H-back bullshit, etc., etc.) Basically, the offense probably has more talent right now than it's had since 2004, maybe ever. So while losing an important piece of that would not help, overall it is in a position to keep performing at a high level.

Second is the nature of the position. Some positions are ones where your success is determined by, "How good is your best player?" WR, QB, pass rushers, and I would put RB on that list too. With others, it's "How bad is your worst player?" Offensive line and DB especially are the ones where the unit overall is only as good as the weakest link that can be exploited. In the first group, you pretty much get a 1:1 return in terms of performance for the money you spend (assuming you're not overpaying). In the second group, you can get a 2:1 or 3:1 return if it fixes a fatal problem. In these terms, Ramon Foster may provide the most "value" of any player on the team. In other words, Joe Haden playing like a $5 million player can come out more or less even for us; for Bell at $17 million, there's almost no way to come out even unless he was to smash every record in the books, have a 3,000-yard rushing season with 100 receptions and such.

The third part of it is just the sheer amount of money involved. I don't know that we've ever had a player where the difference between what he wanted and what other star players were making was literally DOUBLE. Enough to actually sign a different star player and fit another full player in completely, and a very good one at that. Other times it's been "well, we could save $3 million and put it toward a better safety" or some hypothetical thing like that, followed by "how much better safety could you really get for another $3 million, it'd be almost the same situation," and so on. This is literally like - keep the existing guy, or fill two positions of need with star-level talent or very close, and try to draft his replacement.

I also don't think Conner or anyone else has shown anything to indicate we have his replacement on the roster. We'd have to go out and get someone. It may be a moot point anyway, because as I've said repeatedly, I don't think Bell is signing a long-term deal with us at any price. So we might as well treat that eventuality as the one we have to plan for.

[Lady Steel]

Peak Age For A NFL Running Back

A running back is more likely to have a peak season early in his career at 22 or 23 than at the end of his career at 29 or 30.

http://apexfantasyleagues.com/2018/01/peak-age-nfl-running-back/



Well, doh! No kiddin'. :lol:

[AtlantaDan]

Well, doh! No kiddin'. :lol:

Based on Bell’s contract demands that apparently is news to Bell and his agent :wink02:

[Mojouw]

Imagine how nice of a position we'll be in if/when Sutton and Allen have shown themselves to be capable CBs ... we'll have Bell's money AND Haden's money to use on other stuff. And most likely Shazier's $9 million too.

I get what you're saying about the past RB situation given our recent history there, but I think it's a different situation for a few reasons. One is that between Bettis and Bell, the rest of the offense was not quite the powerhouse it is now. Not counting Willie Parker, since I think he was a problem rather than an asset, but that's another story. Anyway, during that entire stretch, either the WRs were not quite as good, the line was not as good, the depth was a problem, we had smaller thorns in our side like having no real fullback (not a killer in itself, but becomes a problem when it prompts you to try a bunch of useless H-back bullshit, etc., etc.) Basically, the offense probably has more talent right now than it's had since 2004, maybe ever. So while losing an important piece of that would not help, overall it is in a position to keep performing at a high level.

Second is the nature of the position. Some positions are ones where your success is determined by, "How good is your best player?" WR, QB, pass rushers, and I would put RB on that list too. With others, it's "How bad is your worst player?" Offensive line and DB especially are the ones where the unit overall is only as good as the weakest link that can be exploited. In the first group, you pretty much get a 1:1 return in terms of performance for the money you spend (assuming you're not overpaying). In the second group, you can get a 2:1 or 3:1 return if it fixes a fatal problem. In these terms, Ramon Foster may provide the most "value" of any player on the team. In other words, Joe Haden playing like a $5 million player can come out more or less even for us; for Bell at $17 million, there's almost no way to come out even unless he was to smash every record in the books, have a 3,000-yard rushing season with 100 receptions and such.

The third part of it is just the sheer amount of money involved. I don't know that we've ever had a player where the difference between what he wanted and what other star players were making was literally DOUBLE. Enough to actually sign a different star player and fit another full player in completely, and a very good one at that. Other times it's been "well, we could save $3 million and put it toward a better safety" or some hypothetical thing like that, followed by "how much better safety could you really get for another $3 million, it'd be almost the same situation," and so on. This is literally like - keep the existing guy, or fill two positions of need with star-level talent or very close, and try to draft his replacement.

I also don't think Conner or anyone else has shown anything to indicate we have his replacement on the roster. We'd have to go out and get someone. It may be a moot point anyway, because as I've said repeatedly, I don't think Bell is signing a long-term deal with us at any price. So we might as well treat that eventuality as the one we have to plan for.

I can see where your coming from and it sounds totally logical and reasonable to me.

I think that regardless of where and when Bell signs, he is going to be in for a rude awakening. Somewhere in a 12-14 million per window is likely attractive to 35-45% of the league. 15-17+ million per year? I don't think he gets anyone to bite on that.

I will throw this out there for consideration - star players in their primes do not make it to free agency anymore. If you want to have star players you have to draft and grow them in-house. The trick is to be able to pay them all when they come up for extensions. The only way in the last handful of years that having cap space and the need for a star player has aligned is to do what the Eagles and the Rams are doing - trade for guys that their current teams are scared they can't or don't want to sign. Long story short, I think cap space for outside players is over-rated. It is all about cap-space for the players already on your roster once those rookie deals expire.

[dislocatedday]

I've been opposed to the Steelers paying Bell close to $15M per year, and that is mostly because I compare that figure against what other top RBs make and it just seems so outrageous when viewed through that lens.

However, I can understand where Bell is coming from if I just compare him as a football player regardless of position. I see so many good (...but not truly great..) players making that kind of annual average salary, and when you look at what Bell does on the field he appears to contribute significantly more to the team overall and takes more physical abuse because of it than many of these guys who are getting close to $15M per season. Just yesterday a good D-lineman, Daniel Hunter with the Minnesota Vikings, was given a 5 year, $72 million contract with $40 million in guarantees. I look at Sammy Watkins getting $16 million a year from the Chiefs and there is no doubt in my mind Bell is much greater than Watkins. I could cite a bunch of other examples too.

I'm not trying to say Bell should be paid at that level, especially with his past suspensions, but I can understand his thinking that he is worth that level of money.

If he does get that big contract from the Steelers, I will still root for the guy on the field and hope he contributes mightily to the team's success. As of now, I don't see a bunch of guys on the defensive side that are stars who are going to command big contracts in the next 2-3 years, so maybe the team does pony up and pay another blue chipper on offense such as Bell. If Shazier was healthy then I would imagine he would have gotten a big deal this summer, but now that his future is in question, I don't see anybody else on the immediate horizon that they absolutely must sign long-term on defense. Heyward is under contract for the next 3, Tuitt for the next 4, TJ for the next 3 with an option year...........those are the only guys currently that I consider upper echelon on our defense as of today (and I am projecting for TJ just based on his rookie year).

[steelreserve]

I can see where your coming from and it sounds totally logical and reasonable to me.

I think that regardless of where and when Bell signs, he is going to be in for a rude awakening. Somewhere in a 12-14 million per window is likely attractive to 35-45% of the league. 15-17+ million per year? I don't think he gets anyone to bite on that.

I will throw this out there for consideration - star players in their primes do not make it to free agency anymore. If you want to have star players you have to draft and grow them in-house. The trick is to be able to pay them all when they come up for extensions. The only way in the last handful of years that having cap space and the need for a star player has aligned is to do what the Eagles and the Rams are doing - trade for guys that their current teams are scared they can't or don't want to sign. Long story short, I think cap space for outside players is over-rated. It is all about cap-space for the players already on your roster once those rookie deals expire.

You're right, they rarely do. The two exceptions are when the player is unhappy about something, or when the team just cannot afford the player due to the salary cap. (Basically the situations you described.)

Although sometimes you have players who don't get re-signed because the team thinks they're washed up or doesn't fit their plans but were wrong, or who the team lets go of because they're rebuilding - Haden was one such find, actually.

But yeah, one thing for sure is that you can't count on a good player being available at the position you want.

On the other hand, if someone was looking to trade their star ILB because his $9 million salary was too much, and the cost was a fifth-round pick, would we be in a position to do that deal if we were right up against the cap? So there are a bunch of situations where it could help, but the draft is the only one where you have full control.

[DesertSteel]

I mean what do you want to use as a performance criteria?

Ints? Haden had 1 Cockrell had 3.
Passes Defensed? Haden had 7. Rusty had 11.
Tackles? Haden had 20 versus Cockrell's 50.

I am not arguing that the 2017 or 2018 Steelers would be better off with Ross Cockrell as their starting CB. But I am arguing that Joe Haden does not perform on the field like a 9-11 million a year player. But no one seems to tear their hair out and it doesn't seem to weekly generate dozen page long message board threads. Yet the logic is roughly the same. Therefore a good portion of the Leveon Bell shouldn't be signed and the Steelers can be better off using the resources in other ways argument has to be emotional - at least to my flawed line of thinking. And that's fine, but it needs to be acknowledged.
That's because we actually watch the games and don't have to rely on stat geeks to tell us who can play. I don't care what those stats say about Cockrell, he sucks and Haden is a more than competent corner. So we are overpaying for one year to keep him. We are also overpaying for Bell at $14M for 4.0 YPC. Those same stat sites can show you how many RBs ran for more than 4.0 YPC last year.

At this point, we dance with who we brought. This time next year, neither will be a Steeler and the conversation will be more interesting.

And... really I am just putting my GM hat on and predicting major declines for a guy (Bell) who has lots of tread off his tires. I already saw it last year and I predict it gets worse this year.

[Mojouw]

That's because we actually watch the games and don't have to rely on stat geeks to tell us who can play. I don't care what those stats say about Cockrell, he sucks and Haden is a more than competent corner. So we are overpaying for one year to keep him. We are also overpaying for Bell at $14M for 4.0 YPC. Those same stat sites can show you how many RBs ran for more than 4.0 YPC last year.

At this point, we dance with who we brought. This time next year, neither will be a Steeler and the conversation will be more interesting.

And... really I am just putting my GM hat on and predicting major declines for a guy (Bell) who has lots of tread off his tires. I already saw it last year and I predict it gets worse this year.

I’m not going to belabor the point. Bottom line is despite any of our feelings about Joe Haden, he does not produce at the level he is paid. At that price he should be following around and erasing #1 WRs each week and creating turnovers. He does not currently do either, at least not consistently. Is Haden one of the problems on defense? Of course not. But if cap savings and not paying guys on the downswing are the two big deciding factors for Bell, Haden presents an interesting counter example.

None of this is to say that I realistically think that Bell should be paid 15-17 million dollars per season. But the team could do it for the next 3 years or so and not really lose out on much from the current roster. Extensions would stagger enough for other guys and Ben will come off the books, etc...etc...etc.

But, you hit the nail on the head - none of it really matters because both guys are gone after this year anyways.

[DesertSteel]

I think they are paying Haden for what he can be, and they hope he will be. He’s veteran insurance against all their youth. I think it could pay off. But we shall all see. Lots of guys were singing his praises on this board last year.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Lots of guys were singing his praises on this board last year.

I think a lot of us were just very happy to see an upgrade at CB, Haden was definitely better than any CB we had on our roster at that time.

[Dwinsgames]

Chris Boswell scored 158 points for the Steelers last year ..... Bell scored 78 ( 1/2 as many )

what if Boswell tried to use that as leverage for his contract and reset the kicker paydays ...

what would he have been seeking 40 million a year ?

see why stats can not be the primary logic in determining player values ?

Bell is a RB in a passing league he is over paid as it is considering those facts ..

lets not go to the " he is a #WR as well" because quite frankly he is NOT...

the numbers do not support it because if your #2 WR is averaging 7YPC you are in deep trouble Jesse James averages more and most want him upgraded because of low YPC numbers

[DesertSteel]

Boswell wanted to be paid like a guy who is both a FG kicker AND a kickoff kicker.

[Craic]

I mean what do you want to use as a performance criteria?

Ints? Haden had 1 Cockrell had 3.
Passes Defensed? Haden had 7. Rusty had 11.
Tackles? Haden had 20 versus Cockrell's 50.

I am not arguing that the 2017 or 2018 Steelers would be better off with Ross Cockrell as their starting CB. But I am arguing that Joe Haden does not perform on the field like a 9-11 million a year player. But no one seems to tear their hair out and it doesn't seem to weekly generate dozen page long message board threads. Yet the logic is roughly the same. Therefore a good portion of the Leveon Bell shouldn't be signed and the Steelers can be better off using the resources in other ways argument has to be emotional - at least to my flawed line of thinking. And that's fine, but it needs to be acknowledged.

The problem with those numbers is that it doesn't take into account opportunities. Last year, I'll guarantee QBs were taking a look at our corners and choosing to throw it away from Haden. In fact, perhaps the best statistic a CB could have is 0 INTs, 0 Passes defended, and 0 tackles because the QB always threw away from his side and ran plays away from his side.

[steelreserve]

The problem with those numbers is that it doesn't take into account opportunities. Last year, I'll guarantee QBs were taking a look at our corners and choosing to throw it away from Haden. In fact, perhaps the best statistic a CB could have is 0 INTs, 0 Passes defended, and 0 tackles because the QB always threw away from his side and ran plays away from his side.

Exactly.

"Passes defended" in particular is kind of a horseshit statistic if you ask me, because 9 out of 10 times when you successfully defend a pass, it's not because you got your hand on it and batted it down. It's because you were playing good coverage and it was a difficult throw that ended up being off-target, too hard for the receiver to catch, was simply thrown away, the QB made a low-percentage throw "where only the receiver had a chance at it," or you covered him long enough that the pass rush caused problems and the throw was a big nothing out of desperation. And that's not even counting the ones where the QB simply looks over, sees the receiver is covered, and moves on to the next target.

I mean, Haden wasn't perfect by any means, but he was the best CB on the team for long stretches, far better than anything we had in the recent past, and the difference was noticeable when he was in the game. Whether we paid him $7 million, $9 million, whatever, that's nitpicking compared to the fact that the pass defense no longer was a complete joke.

[Mojouw]

The problem with those numbers is that it doesn't take into account opportunities. Last year, I'll guarantee QBs were taking a look at our corners and choosing to throw it away from Haden. In fact, perhaps the best statistic a CB could have is 0 INTs, 0 Passes defended, and 0 tackles because the QB always threw away from his side and ran plays away from his side.

Maybe. But that wasn't what I saw last season. Haden is a reliable and competent CB at this point in his career, but for what he is being paid, he should be producing better outcomes.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/cornerback/

He is being paid like a top 20-25 CB. I do not see that level of performance on the field.

I am not calling for Haden to be cut or to have his role changed, but only made the point that everyone freaks out about Bell's stats per dollar and applying the same logic to Haden, he is paid twice as much as similar performing players.

But everyone likes Haden and dislikes Bell.

[steelreserve]

Maybe. But that wasn't what I saw last season. Haden is a reliable and competent CB at this point in his career, but for what he is being paid, he should be producing better outcomes.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/cornerback/

He is being paid like a top 20-25 CB. I do not see that level of performance on the field.

I am not calling for Haden to be cut or to have his role changed, but only made the point that everyone freaks out about Bell's stats per dollar and applying the same logic to Haden, he is paid twice as much as similar performing players.

But everyone likes Haden and dislikes Bell.

Two things about that ... one is that despite being highly paid, Haden is still playing for half the salary that Bell wanted. Another is that Haden seems to be a decent or at least neutral person/teammate to the casual observer, even a "good guy" if you are one of those people who pays a lot of attention to all the off-the-field stuff. Whereas Bell is a jackass very loudly and publicly at every opportunity, skips out on his team despite being paid very handsomely, and seems to have outside interests primarily centered around smoking weed and other dumb shit. Basically checking every box on the "Lousy guy / lousy teammate / lousy role model" list. Congratulations, you got the hat trick.

Perhaps that's why people like one guy more than the other.

[Mojouw]

Two things about that ... one is that despite being highly paid, Haden is still playing for half the salary that Bell wanted. Another is that Haden seems to be a decent or at least neutral person/teammate to the casual observer, even a "good guy" if you are one of those people who pays a lot of attention to all the off-the-field stuff. Whereas Bell is a jackass very loudly and publicly at every opportunity, skips out on his team despite being paid very handsomely, and seems to have outside interests primarily centered around smoking weed and other dumb shit. Basically checking every box on the "Lousy guy / lousy teammate / lousy role model" list. Congratulations, you got the hat trick.

Perhaps that's why people like one guy more than the other.

Right - I understand why people react differently to the two guys. It is not confusing. I also like Haden far more than Bell.

All of this is being dragged up from months ago and doesn't really matter now. But my only point was that MB posters, bloggers, podcasters, and pundits both here and across the Steelers related internet were attempting to parse their evaluation of Bell's "value" as coldly clinical and logical. I wanted to point out, largely to be a pain, that the exact same chain of logic leads you to conclude that Haden is pretty over-paid.

Again, none of this matters now and will only matter if by some bizarre chain of events, the Steelers and Bell actually begin to negotiate in 2019.

[Fire Goodell]

My boy Conner gonna get it done

[DesertSteel]

Right - I understand why people react differently to the two guys. It is not confusing. I also like Haden far more than Bell.

All of this is being dragged up from months ago and doesn't really matter now. But my only point was that MB posters, bloggers, podcasters, and pundits both here and across the Steelers related internet were attempting to parse their evaluation of Bell's "value" as coldly clinical and logical. I wanted to point out, largely to be a pain, that the exact same chain of logic leads you to conclude that Haden is pretty over-paid.

Again, none of this matters now and will only matter if by some bizarre chain of events, the Steelers and Bell actually begin to negotiate in 2019.
Another factor which you didn’t mention is that the Steelers have been starved for talent at the CB position for years. Not so much at RB. This makes fans over-value even the perception of an upgrade - i.e., Haden.

[Mojouw]

Another factor which you didn’t mention is that the Steelers have been starved for talent at the CB position for years. Not so much at RB. This makes fans over-value even the perception of an upgrade - i.e., Haden.

Which is yet another reason that most of the discussion on the internet about either Haden or Bell is mostly emotional and not logic based - the point of the original comment during the height of the will or won't the Steelers make Bell a big offer debate.

[AtlantaDan]

FWIW Bell is not the only high profile RB who is not getting a lot of reps with his offense preseason

Los Angeles Rams (http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/_/name/lar/los-angeles-rams) running back and reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley (http://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2977644/todd-gurley-ii) isn't concerned that missing the preseason could lead to a slow start to the regular season."That is everyone's dream, to not play in the preseason," Gurley said. He added, "Some guys just like being out there to get a feel for it and to see. But not this guy."

Coach Sean McVay on Thursday said that Gurley would not play in the preseason.
"We've done a little bit different approach in terms of working him out just with some things going on just in his lower half," McVay said. "Just getting him up to speed in the way that we've kind of felt like to get him at his best."

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24456707/todd-gurley-los-angeles-rams-says-dream-not-play-preseason

"Working him out just with some things going on just in his lower half"? Does that mean Gurley is even running plays from scrimmage in practice? :noidea:

[Fire Goodell]

practice?

[Edman]

Fun fact: Gurley just got a fancy brand spanking new contract, and has a history of dogging it (2016).

So Bell sitting out because contract doesn't exactly hold much water.

[AtlantaDan]

Fun fact: Gurley just got a fancy brand spanking new contract, and has a history of dogging it (2016).

So Bell sitting out because contract doesn't exactly hold much water.

Not defending Bell - just observing Bell might be put in bubble wrap even if he reported (e.g. - doubtful AB plays a snap this preseason/Falcons will not be playing Julio Jones or Devonta Freeman at all this preseason) as teams increasingly try to avoid key players getting injured while still sticking season ticket holders for paying for 2 preseason games as part of a season ticket package

[DesertSteel]

Which is yet another reason that most of the discussion on the internet about either Haden or Bell is mostly emotional and not logic based - the point of the original comment during the height of the will or won't the Steelers make Bell a big offer debate.
Without emotion there really are no sports. Fandom is based on emotion and without the fans Bell isn't asking for $17M, but trying to sell enough life insurance in the offseason to make ends meet. :)

- - - Updated - - -


Not defending Bell - just observing Bell might be put in bubble wrap even if he reported (e.g. - doubtful AB plays a snap this preseason/Falcons will not be playing Julio Jones or Devonta Freeman at all this preseason) as teams increasingly try to avoid key players getting injured while still sticking season ticket holders for paying for 2 preseason games as part of a season ticket package
Or sticking it to the fans by letting your star players get injured in preseason. It's a catch 22....

Preseason is about who makes the team and who starts. Guys who are locked in at their positions don't need to play at all IMO.

[AtlantaDan]

Without emotion there really are no sports. Fandom is based on emotion and without the fans Bell isn't asking for $17M, but trying to sell enough life insurance in the offseason to make ends meet. :)

- - - Updated - - -


Or sticking it to the fans by letting your star players get injured in preseason. It's a catch 22....

Preseason is about who makes the team and who starts. Guys who are locked in at their positions don't need to play at all IMO.

I agree - but the practice of forcing purchases of preseason tickets has not evolved with the practice of playing starters less since the salary cap hurts depth to replace anyone that is injured - ticketholders got a lot more for their $$$ back in the day

Coaches followed a near-universal format years ago, similar to what Steelers radio analyst Tunch Ilkin remembers while playing for Chuck Noll.

The first units would play a quarter in the first game, two quarters in the second game, sometimes into the second half in the third game and three full quarters of the fourth game. That last game was considered a dress rehearsal for the start of the regular season. Today, it’s something to avoid almost altogether, as few starters even play in the preseason finale.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/08/24/Is-the-risk-worth-playing-Ben-Roethlisberger-for-a-few-series-Saturday-Steelers-Tennessee-Titans-Maurkice-Pouncey-Antonio-Brown-Joe-Haden-Chuck-Noll-Tunch-Ilkin-Heinz-Field/stories/201808240120


I am old enough to remember when in the 70s the preseason ended with the Steelers at Dallas every year - it was always a national broadcast and almost like a regular season game in terms of the quality of play

[steelreserve]

Another factor which you didn’t mention is that the Steelers have been starved for talent at the CB position for years. Not so much at RB. This makes fans over-value even the perception of an upgrade - i.e., Haden.

The difference it's that the RB position is one where - like WR, TE, QB, DL, and LB - there is a 1:1 relationship between skill and effectiveness, so you are as good as your best players.

CB - like OL - is one where the whole unit is as bad as your worst player. So replacing a bad player with a merely decent one can have as much (if not more) impact on the unit as adding a top-10 guy at another position. Haden might "only" be posting like a $5 or $6 million guy, but that can be making $9 million worth of difference because he is replacing someone who gave the whole secondary an automatic F.

Basically the positions where you are "attacking" something work on the individual-talent principle and the ones where you are "protecting" something (OL and DB) work on the weakest-link principle.

I guess this is why you see so many OL and DB players get contracts that are inflated for the value the player adds ... but I actually think that backfires more often than not because teams will be below-average at two or three positions in the unit and then add one lineman or one DB for $12 million thinking it will fix everything. Well, guess what, the unit is still going to be below average.

This is why I think dollar for dollar, Ramon Foster is one of the most "valuable" players on the team, probably adding like $6-7 million of value on a $3 million salary just by not being bad. Whereas soneone like Pouncey gets paid $10 or $11 million but still adds ... about $6M or $7M of value. The difference is, you can get away with that when you are actually strong at all five positions across the unit. But I would say most teams aren't in that situation, and if you are adequate at all nine (ten?) positions across OL and DB, then you are fortunate indeed.

[Dwinsgames]

Right - I understand why people react differently to the two guys. It is not confusing. I also like Haden far more than Bell.

All of this is being dragged up from months ago and doesn't really matter now. But my only point was that MB posters, bloggers, podcasters, and pundits both here and across the Steelers related internet were attempting to parse their evaluation of Bell's "value" as coldly clinical and logical. I wanted to point out, largely to be a pain, that the exact same chain of logic leads you to conclude that Haden is pretty over-paid.

Again, none of this matters now and will only matter if by some bizarre chain of events, the Steelers and Bell actually begin to negotiate in 2019.

another aspect is ...

this is a passing league Bell is a RB so not as important as WR's or those who defend WR's .... yet wants paid as a THE top WR in the game ...

yes he wants more than Brown ... more than anyone at the pos ... https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver/

[DesertSteel]

I agree - but the practice of forcing purchases of preseason tickets has not evolved with the practice of playing starters less since the salary cap hurts depth to replace anyone that is injured - ticketholders got a lot more for their $$$ back in the day

Coaches followed a near-universal format years ago, similar to what Steelers radio analyst Tunch Ilkin remembers while playing for Chuck Noll.

The first units would play a quarter in the first game, two quarters in the second game, sometimes into the second half in the third game and three full quarters of the fourth game. That last game was considered a dress rehearsal for the start of the regular season. Today, it’s something to avoid almost altogether, as few starters even play in the preseason finale.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2018/08/24/Is-the-risk-worth-playing-Ben-Roethlisberger-for-a-few-series-Saturday-Steelers-Tennessee-Titans-Maurkice-Pouncey-Antonio-Brown-Joe-Haden-Chuck-Noll-Tunch-Ilkin-Heinz-Field/stories/201808240120


I am old enough to remember when in the 70s the preseason ended with the Steelers at Dallas every year - it was always a national broadcast and almost like a regular season game in terms of the quality of play
I agree mostly. I think expectations just have to be different. As a diehard fan, though I may not be interested in preseason, in general, I am more interested in Steelers preseason if Mason Rudolph is playing than if Ben was behind center. All I'm thinking if Ben is out there is "He's gonna get hurt in a meaningless game." But with Rudolph I know it's the only time I'll get to see him on the field. So it's actually a better product in those terms. What's the price of admission for that??? I don't know, but it can't be free.

[Dwinsgames]

I agree mostly. I think expectations just have to be different. As a diehard fan, though I may not be interested in preseason, in general, I am more interested in Steelers preseason if Mason Rudolph is playing than if Ben was behind center. All I'm thinking if Ben is out there is "He's gonna get hurt in a meaningless game." But with Rudolph I know it's the only time I'll get to see him on the field. So it's actually a better product in those terms. What's the price of admission for that??? I don't know, but it can't be free.

seats as cheap as 11 bucks so .... still a good value IMO https://www1.ticketmaster.com/pittsburgh-steelers-vs-tennessee-titans-pittsburgh-pennsylvania-08-25-2018/event/16005468E00999DA?artistid=806007&majorcatid=10004&minorcatid=8

[DesertSteel]

seats as cheap as 11 bucks so .... still a good value IMO https://www1.ticketmaster.com/pittsburgh-steelers-vs-tennessee-titans-pittsburgh-pennsylvania-08-25-2018/event/16005468E00999DA?artistid=806007&majorcatid=10004&minorcatid=8
But the real question is how much are season ticket holders forced to pay for them???

[Dwinsgames]

But the real question is how much are season ticket holders forced to pay for them???

they are for purchase via ticketmaster at those costs 11 bucks up to 209 I think it is

[AtlantaDan]

But the real question is how much are season ticket holders forced to pay for them???

In 2017 the season ticket package for the best seats (club level sections 208-213/232-237) cost a total of $2854. You had to buy the entire 10 game package but for some reason the price per ticket within the package was tiered for preseason tier at $195 per game, premier tier (Packers & Patriots) at $346 per game, black tier (Vikings & Ravens) at $330 per game, and gold (Jags, Bengals, Titans & Browns) at $278 per game. I guess those were the face value prices for those seats for single game purchases when available

Tiering for all season tickets, with lowest 2017 package price of $732 (sections 518 and 527) with preseason tier for those seats at $38 per game

https://heinzfield.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/HeinzField_VariablePricing_SeatingChart.jpg
https://heinzfield.com/football/pittsburgh-steelers/steelers-tickets/ticket-prices/