steelreserve
02-19-2018, 04:09 PM
I know it's widely assumed Hubbard will be gone as soon as free agency hits, because he's played himself out of our price range and we have other things to worry about. I admit that's the most likely situation. We probably would not be able to keep him unless we let go of someone else. BUT, I just wonder if that might happen. Out of our five starting linemen, AV, Pouncey and DeCastro are not going anywhere, that's a given. However, consider this:
- A 1:1 swap for Gilbert (releasing Gilbert, keeping Hubbard) is the well-worn debate and has its drawbacks. What's not talked about is that Foster is 32 and in the final year of his contract, and we are going to need a replacement for him sooner rather than later. He might be the more likely candidate to be cleared out here, since Hubbard can play guard too.
- What would a contract for Hubbard look like? Well, if it's top-10 LT money, forget it. But it doesn't sound like that's quite the case. According to this recent article, (http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/02/steelers-2018-free-agents-analysis-ol-chris-hubbard-unrestricted/) a likely amount could be more like $4-5M a year. Foster makes $3.5M. So split the difference and call it an increase of about a million, maybe 1.5M for a guy 7 years younger who can play both positions and might be the starter for years to come. Does that sound worth it? It sure sounds like it to me.
- As far as cap numbers go. Releasing Foster would save about $2.5M considering the dead money. If it was a $4.5M average contract for Hubbard, we could probably fit that in by spreading out some of the cap hit with bonuses and such.
- Now what about the other case, releasing Gilbert. Now, I don't think that's too likely given that he's been a very good RT for us, but to play devil's advocate, he's also going to be 30 and in the second-to-last year of his contract, and who knows if the PED issue might have gotten some in the FO a little skittish. For the sake of argument, let's assume it did. What would that look like?
- Well, being in the second-to-last year of his contract gives some additional options with Gilbert, for example the June 1 release. If we were to let him go right now, we'd save about $4 million, which probably lets us do that deal by itself. BUT, a June 1 release would make that closer to $6M if I'm not mistaken. Why is that important? Well, it would cover the rookie class plus about a million dollars. So unlike most situations where cutting someone June 1 doesn't do anything because you can't find good players on the FA market at that point, this would actually fit a purpose quite nicely.
- Again, it's not likely unless someone's got it in their head that they are not happy with Gilbert. But, also consider that Hubbard can play both tackle positions as well as guard, and that Gilbert probably isn't here for more than 2-3 years anyway due to age, and it gets more tempting.
At any rate, this is mostly under the radar because people assume Hubbard is probably gone - but actually one of the more complicated puzzle pieces of the offseason if you consider all the angles including age. Personally, I think it unlikely we do anything with Gilbert despite my own reservations about players' usual career tracks after being busted for PEDs ... if anything, a move to replace Foster is more likely.
- A 1:1 swap for Gilbert (releasing Gilbert, keeping Hubbard) is the well-worn debate and has its drawbacks. What's not talked about is that Foster is 32 and in the final year of his contract, and we are going to need a replacement for him sooner rather than later. He might be the more likely candidate to be cleared out here, since Hubbard can play guard too.
- What would a contract for Hubbard look like? Well, if it's top-10 LT money, forget it. But it doesn't sound like that's quite the case. According to this recent article, (http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/02/steelers-2018-free-agents-analysis-ol-chris-hubbard-unrestricted/) a likely amount could be more like $4-5M a year. Foster makes $3.5M. So split the difference and call it an increase of about a million, maybe 1.5M for a guy 7 years younger who can play both positions and might be the starter for years to come. Does that sound worth it? It sure sounds like it to me.
- As far as cap numbers go. Releasing Foster would save about $2.5M considering the dead money. If it was a $4.5M average contract for Hubbard, we could probably fit that in by spreading out some of the cap hit with bonuses and such.
- Now what about the other case, releasing Gilbert. Now, I don't think that's too likely given that he's been a very good RT for us, but to play devil's advocate, he's also going to be 30 and in the second-to-last year of his contract, and who knows if the PED issue might have gotten some in the FO a little skittish. For the sake of argument, let's assume it did. What would that look like?
- Well, being in the second-to-last year of his contract gives some additional options with Gilbert, for example the June 1 release. If we were to let him go right now, we'd save about $4 million, which probably lets us do that deal by itself. BUT, a June 1 release would make that closer to $6M if I'm not mistaken. Why is that important? Well, it would cover the rookie class plus about a million dollars. So unlike most situations where cutting someone June 1 doesn't do anything because you can't find good players on the FA market at that point, this would actually fit a purpose quite nicely.
- Again, it's not likely unless someone's got it in their head that they are not happy with Gilbert. But, also consider that Hubbard can play both tackle positions as well as guard, and that Gilbert probably isn't here for more than 2-3 years anyway due to age, and it gets more tempting.
At any rate, this is mostly under the radar because people assume Hubbard is probably gone - but actually one of the more complicated puzzle pieces of the offseason if you consider all the angles including age. Personally, I think it unlikely we do anything with Gilbert despite my own reservations about players' usual career tracks after being busted for PEDs ... if anything, a move to replace Foster is more likely.