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teegre
02-06-2018, 09:18 AM
Here is my latest article from The Point of Pittsburgh. It discussed drafted a QB versus drafting an ILB... basically, Do you win championships with defense or with a franchise QB???


Winning Championships: The Franchise Quarterback Vs. The Loaded Defense

The Divisional Round playoff loss to the Jaguars was a tough one to stomach. There were the questionable play calls on fourth-&-inches; there was the controversial onside kick; but, the most glaring problem in that game was the performance, or lack thereof, by Sean Spence. My intention is not to bash Spence, but rather to highlight the fact that an upgrade has to be made at the inside linebacker position. Because, cutting to the chase, Spence is what he is: a third-string backup who was forced to start due to injuries to both Ryan Shazier (spine) and Tyler Matakevich (shoulder).

We could analyze and dissect every snap that Spence played, but Pro Football Focus already did that, and they graded him out to be the “worst” linebacker in the NFL (take that how you will). Similarly, you can read The Point of Pittsburgh’s own analysis of Spence.

Again, I apologize to Spence if it sounds like I am trouncing him. Regardless of all of the missed tackles in all of the other games in which he played, we can focus on one single play from the Jaguars game as a microcosm of Spence’s lack of ability: fourth-&-goal on Jacksonville’s opening drive.


Read more:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/winning-championships-franchise-quarterback-vs-loaded-defense/


Feel free to pass this along to anyone who you may think would be interested.

And... let the debate begin!!!

Born2Steel
02-06-2018, 11:01 AM
Here is my latest article from The Point of Pittsburgh. It discussed drafted a QB versus drafting an ILB... basically, Do you win championships with defense or with a franchise QB???


Winning Championships: The Franchise Quarterback Vs. The Loaded Defense

The Divisional Round playoff loss to the Jaguars was a tough one to stomach. There were the questionable play calls on fourth-&-inches; there was the controversial onside kick; but, the most glaring problem in that game was the performance, or lack thereof, by Sean Spence. My intention is not to bash Spence, but rather to highlight the fact that an upgrade has to be made at the inside linebacker position. Because, cutting to the chase, Spence is what he is: a third-string backup who was forced to start due to injuries to both Ryan Shazier (spine) and Tyler Matakevich (shoulder).

We could analyze and dissect every snap that Spence played, but Pro Football Focus already did that, and they graded him out to be the “worst” linebacker in the NFL (take that how you will). Similarly, you can read The Point of Pittsburgh’s own analysis of Spence.

Again, I apologize to Spence if it sounds like I am trouncing him. Regardless of all of the missed tackles in all of the other games in which he played, we can focus on one single play from the Jaguars game as a microcosm of Spence’s lack of ability: fourth-&-goal on Jacksonville’s opening drive.


Read more:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/winning-championships-franchise-quarterback-vs-loaded-defense/


Feel free to pass this along to anyone who you may think would be interested.

And... let the debate begin!!!

Another great read. All I can say at this time is that I want to close that gaping hole in the middle of this defense. I wouldn't mind one bit taking Vander Esch in the first, followed in the 2nd or 3rd with a Jerome Baker, Christian Sam, or Josey Jewell selection as well. ILB is so weak right now I would double dip early at that position.

tube517
02-06-2018, 11:10 AM
Another great read. All I can say at this time is that I want to close that gaping hole in the middle of this defense. I wouldn't mind one bit taking Vander Esch in the first, followed in the 2nd or 3rd with a Jerome Baker, Christian Sam, or Josey Jewell selection as well. ILB is so weak right now I would double dip early at that position.

I agree. Tomlin/Colbert have double dipped before so I wouldn't be surprised if they do.

Mojouw
02-06-2018, 11:15 AM
If all the "name" guys at LB are off the board, then maybe a QB is a great idea. For me it depends on who is available. If Edwards were to fall - I would jump over other team's tables to run the card up to the podium. Because in my defense, I would move Watt, Dupree, and Edwards all over almost every snap. No one would know who was coming from where on any given snap.

That being said, Lamar Jackson would be a heck of a follow-up to Roethlisberger!

st33lersguy
02-06-2018, 11:25 AM
I like points this article makes. However there are some points I'd like to add.

I think you need both a QB capable of making the big plays throughout the postseason and a defense capable of making plays throughout the postseason. However history, average and even some below average QBs have won Super Bowls with dominant defenses (Trent Dilfer, 39 year old Peyton Manning), I have yet to see a team that gives up a ton of yards consistently throughout the year (not just one game) win the Super Bowl even paired with QBs and NFL offenses that set major NFL records. Though sometimes a QB who usually doesn't play at a high level but plays lights out in the postseason is enough (think Flacco is 2012, or Foles this postseason)

What are your thoughts on Darius Leonard as an option in round 2? He looks like a playmaker.

You focus strictly on ILB, but safety should be discussed as well. It seems like every Super Bowl champion, at least in the past 5 years, has had a strong secondary. CB is looking better with Haden and Hilton, plus Sutton looks promising and Burns still has potential. Safety however is a mess and it was evident as Jacksonville hit big plays constantly. The hope of Sean Davis' potential is all they have. Mitchell was awful, Golden has been awful every time he is put in, and who knows what they are doing with Wilcox. Enter Justin Reid or even Marcus Allen from PSU at 28.

Also, not sure I'm sold on Lamar Jackson as a QB. It seems like Vick may be his ceiling and he could end up closer to someone like Kordell Stewart or even worse

teegre
02-06-2018, 01:57 PM
Another great read. All I can say at this time is that I want to close that gaping hole in the middle of this defense. I wouldn't mind one bit taking Vander Esch in the first, followed in the 2nd or 3rd with a Jerome Baker, Christian Sam, or Josey Jewell selection as well. ILB is so weak right now I would double dip early at that position.

I can definitely see a double-dip... but... I really don’t see it happening before R5.

They need ILB, S, TE in some order in R1-R3.

teegre
02-06-2018, 02:24 PM
I like points this article makes. However there are some points I'd like to add.

I think you need both a QB capable of making the big plays throughout the postseason and a defense capable of making plays throughout the postseason. However history, average and even some below average QBs have won Super Bowls with dominant defenses (Trent Dilfer, 39 year old Peyton Manning), I have yet to see a team that gives up a ton of yards consistently throughout the year (not just one game) win the Super Bowl even paired with QBs and NFL offenses that set major NFL records. Though sometimes a QB who usually doesn't play at a high level but plays lights out in the postseason is enough (think Flacco is 2012, or Foles this postseason)

What are your thoughts on Darius Leonard as an option in round 2? He looks like a playmaker.

You focus strictly on ILB, but safety should be discussed as well. It seems like every Super Bowl champion, at least in the past 5 years, has had a strong secondary. CB is looking better with Haden and Hilton, plus Sutton looks promising and Burns still has potential. Safety however is a mess and it was evident as Jacksonville hit big plays constantly. The hope of Sean Davis' potential is all they have. Mitchell was awful, Golden has been awful every time he is put in, and who knows what they are doing with Wilcox. Enter Justin Reid or even Marcus Allen from PSU at 28.

Also, not sure I'm sold on Lamar Jackson as a QB. It seems like Vick may be his ceiling and he could end up closer to someone like Kordell Stewart or even worse

QB vs. DEFENSE:
You make good points.

The Greatest Show on Turf got stopped by a stout Taperiots defense (and... uh... the fact that the Taperiots recorded the Rams’ Practices).

Peyton’s record-setting season was stifled by The Legion of Boom.

DARIUS LEONARD:
BlackAndGold mentioned him a few weeks ago. I don’t know much about Leonard, beyond a few highlight reels that I saw (which can be misleading). But, I do trust BlackAndGold’s judgement (he’s pretty solid in his draft analysis).

SAFETY:
In my opinion, there are five top tier ILBs in this draft, but only one top tier safety. After R1, IMO, the talent level at ILB drops off, whereas, there are a dozen very good S’s. Ergo, I feel that we get our ILB at 28, and then there will be plenty of safeties remaining form which to choose at 60.
(This is also the topic of my next article.)

Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama (top 5)

Derwin James, Florida St. (R1)

Ronnie Harrison, Alabama (late R1/early R2)
Justin Reid, Stanford (late R1/early R2)

Terrell Edmunds, VaTech (R2)
Treyvon Henderson, Hawaii
Kyzir White, WVU
Jordan Whitehead, Pitt
Marcus Allen, Penn St.
DeShon Elliot, Texas

BlackAndGold
02-06-2018, 03:41 PM
Jon Ledyard on Leonard (Was written before the Senior Bowl which he racked up 14 tackles)

Darius Leonard, RS Senior, South Carolina State

What he has: I like Leonard, despite his flaws and his technical rawness. He’s not explosive, but he can run sideline to sideline and definitely has enough range for the position. He trusted his keys more as games went on and took on pullers bravely in the hole, bottling things up in his gap as best he could.


At 6-2, 228 pounds, Leonard has enough length to pack on a few more pounds and be a great-sized linebacker. He keeps his feet active in zone coverage, reading the quarterback’s eyes and attempting to break on potential throwing windows. Leonard’s ability as a blitzer gives him the raw skill set to play all three downs, and while he isn’t there yet, with the right landing spot he could potentially become a starter.


What he has to prove: Leonard got hammered by blockers way too often, and for an FCS prospect that is definitely concerning. When he did key and diagnose quickly enough, Leonard too often engaged upright, rather than dropping his pads to win leverage battles. He’s pretty easily manipulated by savvy quarterbacks in coverage, but that can be corrected with a little more coaching and discipline. This week will be huge for Leonard, as he’ll have the opportunity to prove he can play with the big boys in a number of different roles, but also hit good numbers at the weigh-in.

teegre
02-07-2018, 06:37 AM
If Edwards were to fall - I would jump over other team's tables to run the card up to the podium. Because in my defense, I would move Watt, Dupree, and Edwards all over almost every snap. No one would know who was coming from where on any given snap.

:nod: Watt played ILB on quite a few snap this season (because, he is so versatile). And, I’ve mentioned that Watt seems like the perfect candidate to play the Hawk position that Cowher used for Derrick Thomas: lining up anywhere on any given snap (OLB, ILB, DE).

With Edmunds, if a DC had the ability to switch BOTH of those players around... WOW!!!

tube517
02-07-2018, 07:52 AM
I'm the Hokie homer here so if Edmunds (either one) made it to the Steelers, I'd be ecstatic but the history of Hokies on this team is non existent except for Vick, Tom Beasley, and Bruce freakin Arians lol

Shoes
02-07-2018, 11:55 AM
Very nice work TR! You have your home priorities correct. I don't think they will pick up a QB this year, it will be Ben, Jones & Dobbs again. QB will be drafted in 2019 imo, I also think the FO goes edge in R1 this year unless someone slides. I just don't think Bud is going to make much of an improvement. While most think its crazy to move him inside, why not give it a try if he's going to be let go after this year. If it works you save a R1 pick in Bud and save an early pick in this draft. Of course I wouldn't be upset if we drafted a TE in R1 or R2 either. :chuckle:

Mojouw
02-07-2018, 04:24 PM
This and the results of the SB and playoffs has got me thinking - is it possible to do everything right on defense and still lose when faced with a high level offense in the modern NFL?

For instance, what glaring mistakes in schemes or execution did Jacksonville make against either Steelers or the Pats and their "elite" defense still got just decimated.

In the SB, what mistakes did the Eagles defense make? I saw one blown coverage, maybe two and that was it. But Brady threw for a tick over 500 yards and they hit the QB once. For the rest of the season, that defense was a wrecking machine. But they ran into a smart Qb with a clever coordinator (who is clearly an ass, but that is another story) who forced them to declare their coverages pre-snap through formations and movement and they were dead meat. Brady just tore through them.

The Vikings vaunted defense broke repeatedly in the playoffs when faced with high end offense.

So to extend the ideas that Teegre is getting at here -- can you make a defense good enough to stop a loaded NFL offense with an experienced high-end QB at the controls? I'm starting to think that until they start changing some rules the answer is "No".

If that is the case, how good does you defense need to be? What are realistic expectations? How many resources should you devote to that side of the ball, etc.

Anyway, just a random set of thoughts.

Shoes
02-07-2018, 04:54 PM
This and the results of the SB and playoffs has got me thinking - is it possible to do everything right on defense and still lose when faced with a high level offense in the modern NFL?

For instance, what glaring mistakes in schemes or execution did Jacksonville make against either Steelers or the Pats and their "elite" defense still got just decimated.

In the SB, what mistakes did the Eagles defense make? I saw one blown coverage, maybe two and that was it. But Brady threw for a tick over 500 yards and they hit the QB once. For the rest of the season, that defense was a wrecking machine. But they ran into a smart Qb with a clever coordinator (who is clearly an ass, but that is another story) who forced them to declare their coverages pre-snap through formations and movement and they were dead meat. Brady just tore through them.

The Vikings vaunted defense broke repeatedly in the playoffs when faced with high end offense.

So to extend the ideas that Teegre is getting at here -- can you make a defense good enough to stop a loaded NFL offense with an experienced high-end QB at the controls? I'm starting to think that until they start changing some rules the answer is "No".

If that is the case, how good does you defense need to be? What are realistic expectations? How many resources should you devote to that side of the ball, etc.

Anyway, just a random set of thoughts.


The Eagles Defense was a wrecking machine all season, thats what helped them get to the SB...they hit the Brady once and it was a game changer. Besides that there aren't too many Bradys out there giving every team he plays a headache. I think you have to keep the defense very strong and very good, there are games during the season where an offense is just flat and a good defense can carry the team to a win.

Born2Steel
02-07-2018, 07:01 PM
If memory serves, and that's a big IF, this defense held up the offense a few times this past season. The front 7 was actually playing great up until the Shazier injury. Before that, there was a thread on here comparing them to the "Steel Curtain" defense. Point being, there are probably several wins this defense are mostly responsible for this year. I see a real problem with this defense going forward however. Without player upgrades at LB, and safety, the middle of the field is always open. It doesn't take Brady to exploit it. Combine that with how the Jags OL was able to dominate our DL, the LBs were exposed even more. I still feel this is the main offseason priority.

The offense was mostly unstoppable the latter part of the season. I don't know how much that coincided with the Shazier injury, and they felt the urgency to step it up. Ben played great. AB is phenomenal. JuJu has been a great addition. MB, well jury is still out. And Bell was a matchup nightmare for most again. If we add a RB like Royce Freeman(Bettis 2.0), or dare to dream, Ronald Jones(Bell with breakaway speed), and maybe one more WR/TE like Allen Lazard, I would be totally onboard because I do agree the offense has to be overly dynamic.

So, to sum up this thought, I think the offense is going to make or break this team's future. But, this defense, that was so promising and still is in some areas, is woefully in need of better players in other areas. Seven draft picks should end up being 5 defense and 2 offense, IMO.

teegre
02-07-2018, 08:31 PM
I'm the Hokie homer here so if Edmunds (either one) made it to the Steelers, I'd be ecstatic but the history of Hokies on this team is non existent except for Vick, Tom Beasley, and Bruce freakin Arians lol

Well, there was also Jashon Worlididdy.

Mojouw
02-07-2018, 08:37 PM
The Eagles Defense was a wrecking machine all season, thats what helped them get to the SB...they hit the Brady once and it was a game changer. Besides that there aren't too many Bradys out there giving every team he plays a headache. I think you have to keep the defense very strong and very good, there are games during the season where an offense is just flat and a good defense can carry the team to a win.

For sure. I wasn't going for ignoring it, but I'm just not sure you can build a defense that can stone an offense right now deep in the playoffs. I have nothing to back this up. But Foles just ate up a Pats defense that while not great, wasn't totally terrible either. Nick Foles! The same dude who dropped dimes on the Vikings also.

Again, this is really not coherent, just kinda a sense that with the spread concepts, RPO's, and pass interference rules right now, I'm not sure you can consistently stop or even slow down a great passing offense. Maybe if there is some defensive "innovation" to respond. Kinda like how there emerged defensive counters to the West Coast offense. But I feel like no one has an answer right now...

- - - Updated - - -


If memory serves, and that's a big IF, this defense held up the offense a few times this past season. The front 7 was actually playing great up until the Shazier injury. Before that, there was a thread on here comparing them to the "Steel Curtain" defense. Point being, there are probably several wins this defense are mostly responsible for this year. I see a real problem with this defense going forward however. Without player upgrades at LB, and safety, the middle of the field is always open. It doesn't take Brady to exploit it. Combine that with how the Jags OL was able to dominate our DL, the LBs were exposed even more. I still feel this is the main offseason priority.

The offense was mostly unstoppable the latter part of the season. I don't know how much that coincided with the Shazier injury, and they felt the urgency to step it up. Ben played great. AB is phenomenal. JuJu has been a great addition. MB, well jury is still out. And Bell was a matchup nightmare for most again. If we add a RB like Royce Freeman(Bettis 2.0), or dare to dream, Ronald Jones(Bell with breakaway speed), and maybe one more WR/TE like Allen Lazard, I would be totally onboard because I do agree the offense has to be overly dynamic.

So, to sum up this thought, I think the offense is going to make or break this team's future. But, this defense, that was so promising and still is in some areas, is woefully in need of better players in other areas. Seven draft picks should end up being 5 defense and 2 offense, IMO.

I would agree with all of what you said. I'm honestly starting to think that the ONLY hope for a defense is to get your hands on about 15 just crazy athletic guys and let them run to the ball in waves. I kinda think that is what the Steelers are attempting to do. It is just that there have been some guys slow to develop, some injuries, and some horrifically thin spots on the depth chart. In a sense this is what the Falcons, Eagles, Seahawks, Jags, and a few others have or are trying. But it is certainly incredibly difficult to get enough of those guys on one roster playing well at the same time.

I just can't get the image of the Pats defense (filled with technically sound football players however athletically limited they are) and the Eagles defense (filled with a ton of really good players) both just getting worked over like it was a video game.

st33lersguy
02-07-2018, 08:58 PM
There is recent examples of a defense at least slowing down top tier offenses deep in the postseason and holding them noticeably below their average point per game on the season. The Patriots have been held to under 20 points in 4 postseason losses the past 7 years. The 2013 Broncos record setting offense was held to only 8 points in the Super Bowl. Rodgers the 2 years he won MVP (2011 and 2014) he had the NFL's top scoring offense, and offenses he directed scored 20 and 22 points in those 2 postseason losses and the offenses in those games so I don't think it's impossible for an top tier NFL defense to stop a top tier NFL offense in today's game

Mojouw
02-07-2018, 09:06 PM
There is recent examples of a defense at least slowing down top tier offenses deep in the postseason and holding them noticeably below their average point per game on the season. The Patriots have been held to under 20 points in 4 postseason losses the past 7 years. The 2013 Broncos record setting offense was held to only 8 points in the Super Bowl. Rodgers the 2 years he won MVP (2011 and 2014) he had the NFL's top scoring offense, and offenses he directed scored 20 and 22 points in those 2 postseason losses and the offenses in those games so I don't think it's impossible for an top tier NFL defense to stop a top tier NFL offense in today's game

Good points! Just curious - I'm guessing it 'Hawks and Broncos have the bulk of those defensive performances?

teegre
02-07-2018, 09:14 PM
This and the results of the SB and playoffs has got me thinking - is it possible to do everything right on defense and still lose when faced with a high level offense in the modern NFL?

For instance, what glaring mistakes in schemes or execution did Jacksonville make against either Steelers or the Pats and their "elite" defense still got just decimated.

In the SB, what mistakes did the Eagles defense make? I saw one blown coverage, maybe two and that was it. But Brady threw for a tick over 500 yards and they hit the QB once. For the rest of the season, that defense was a wrecking machine. But they ran into a smart Qb with a clever coordinator (who is clearly an ass, but that is another story) who forced them to declare their coverages pre-snap through formations and movement and they were dead meat. Brady just tore through them.

The Vikings vaunted defense broke repeatedly in the playoffs when faced with high end offense.

So to extend the ideas that Teegre is getting at here -- can you make a defense good enough to stop a loaded NFL offense with an experienced high-end QB at the controls? I'm starting to think that until they start changing some rules the answer is "No".

If that is the case, how good does you defense need to be? What are realistic expectations? How many resources should you devote to that side of the ball, etc.

Anyway, just a random set of thoughts.

Exactly!!!

I saw 3-out-of-4 of the teams in the Championship games have stout defenses. Heck, even the Taperiots defense was allowing the 5th least points in the league. So, I was like: “Let’s get some DEFENSE!!!”

But, Brady ripped apart the Jaguars and the Eagles. Foles ripped apart the Vikings and the Taperiots. And, as much as defenses got them to the playoffs, it appears that FRANCHISE QBs win championships.

Before anyone points out that Nick Foles isn’t a franchise QB, remember that he played like one in both the Championship game and in the Super Bowl (much like how Joe Flacco has a post-season for the ages in 2012).

SUMMATION:
You need both. And/or, you need to be able to win in a variety of ways.

When teams get into a shootout, you need a franchise QB. When teams play smashmouth, you need a solid defense.

SHORT-TERM:
We have a franchise QB. So, load up on defense.

LONG-TERM:
We only have a franchise QB for three more seasons. So, draft his replacement.

teegre
02-07-2018, 09:35 PM
Very nice work TR! You have your home priorities correct. I don't think they will pick up a QB this year, it will be Ben, Jones & Dobbs again. QB will be drafted in 2019 imo, I also think the FO goes edge in R1 this year unless someone slides. I just don't think Bud is going to make much of an improvement. While most think its crazy to move him inside, why not give it a try if he's going to be let go after this year. If it works you save a R1 pick in Bud and save an early pick in this draft. Of course I wouldn't be upset if we drafted a TE in R1 or R2 either. :chuckle:

Moving Dupree is worth a shot.

James Farrior struggled as an OLB, switched to ILB, and voila!!! we found ourselves an All Pro player.

And, it’s not that outlandish, considering that Dupree covered the TEs/RBs on a ton of snaps.

(Plus, yes, that would allow us to get a TE. :lol: )

st33lersguy
02-07-2018, 10:41 PM
Good points! Just curious - I'm guessing it 'Hawks and Broncos have the bulk of those defensive performances?

Just some. Also Giants in 2011 postseason held some offenses to well below their average point per game and the Ravens D is in there.

teegre
02-08-2018, 02:22 PM
If memory serves, and that's a big IF, this defense held up the offense a few times this past season. The front 7 was actually playing great up until the Shazier injury. Before that, there was a thread on here comparing them to the "Steel Curtain" defense. Point being, there are probably several wins this defense are mostly responsible for this year. I see a real problem with this defense going forward however. Without player upgrades at LB, and safety, the middle of the field is always open. It doesn't take Brady to exploit it. Combine that with how the Jags OL was able to dominate our DL, the LBs were exposed even more. I still feel this is the main offseason priority.

Once Shazier went down, teams targeted Spence. Opposing teams seemed to have plays that were designed to go into the gaps that were Spence’s responsibility.

Add in some overpursuit by the linebackers (in order to make up for Spence's deficiencies) and poor tackling in the secondary, and voila!!! a pretty good front seven suddenly became average.

DesertSteel
02-08-2018, 02:40 PM
Good article! Thanks for posting.