History Indicates Bell Unlikely To Match 2017 Stats In 2018 After 400 Touch Season

[Shoes]

BY DAVE BRYAN (http://www.steelersdepot.com/author/davebryan/) JANUARY 31, 2018 AT 09:02 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell registered a career year in 2017 and it included him touching the football a total of 406 times. Those 406 touches put Bell in a unique club as only 26 other different players in the history of the NFL have managed to hit the 400 touch mark during a regular season. With that noted, should we now be concerned that Bell’s workload in 2017 was too much? In a word, yes, we should be.
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/01/history-indicates-bell-unlikely-match-2017-stats-2018-400-touch-season/

[DesertSteel]

2017 was not a career year. His 2014 season was much better in every category.

[st33lersguy]

So history suggests he gets worse than 1291 rushing yards he had? Yikes, certainly not worth $15+ mil a year

[steelreserve]

He'll probably get the same stats with less touches if he shows up ready to play instead of throwing a shitfit and being unprepared the first four games.

[Mojouw]

The interesting thing is the stats are kinda hard to project because so many of Bels touches are from passes. Most of the other backs that are included in the dataset are getting those #s from almost solely rushes.

Not saying that Bell isn't getting worn down, but it really is a usage mix we don't have a good set of comps for.


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[stillers4me]

958992361509531648

[SteelerFanInStl]

I'm going to go against that and predict that if his contract situation gets worked out and he's in TC, he will better his 2017 stats. 2017 wasn't a great year for Bell. He's been better. Of course, if he doesn't get nearly the same amount of touches, he won't do better. That could happen with Connor getting more involved in the offense, which I'd actually like to see.

[Born2Steel]

It's not all about the number of yards. It's WHEN he gets those yards. He could get 100 yards in the 1st qtr every game, and not do much else the rest of the game, and he would be at 1600 yards/season. That looks great on a stat sheet but really doesn't mean what it looks like. Bell brings a different dimension that other backs just don't. He IS that all-in-one RB that everyone on here is going to want once he's gone. Conner gives you tough running, hard yards, some receiving ability, and no pass blocking. If you cannot see that dropoff from the RB spot, I don't know what else to say. Can Conner give you 1200 yards from scrimmage? Maybe. But that's all you get from him, and most RBs. Then there are some that can add in receiving yards, not all can. AND not all can pass block. Bell is the best RB in the game today, with or without his off-field stuff. I really don't get why some on here are so anxious to get rid of him.

[lipps83]

Bell is the best RB in the game today, with or without his off-field stuff. I really don't get why some on here are so anxious to get rid of him.

Because he isn't worth what he is demanding, or even close to it. Even if he still were the best back in the league (Gurley has surpassed him) he still wouldn't be worth it.

The offense doesn't NEED him, but yes, it is NICE to have him.

The offense can perform with a GOOD back just fine. It does not need a GREAT back and it shouldn't pay for one. Good backs are fairly common.

[Born2Steel]

Because he isn't worth what he is demanding, or even close to it. Even if he still were the best back in the league (Gurley has surpassed him) he still wouldn't be worth it.

The offense doesn't NEED him, but yes, it is NICE to have him.

The offense can perform with a GOOD back just fine. It does not need a GREAT back and it shouldn't pay for one. Good backs are fairly common.

How quickly you have forgotten the Redman/Dwyer years. AND Gurley is not up for sale or trade.

[steelreserve]

The interesting thing is the stats are kinda hard to project because so many of Bels touches are from passes. Most of the other backs that are included in the dataset are getting those #s from almost solely rushes.

Not saying that Bell isn't getting worn down, but it really is a usage mix we don't have a good set of comps for.

LaDainian Tomlinson is probably the best, most recent 1:1 comparison. He kept it up for about 6-7 years and then went off a cliff. Roger Craig wold be another one. Same exact thing there.

Marshall Faulk made it a couple years longer, but was a couple years younger when he came into the league.

In other words, basically every one of these guys makes it to age 29, loses a step and gives you half production for a couple years (which is still ok, but not elite), and then they're done. In light of that, we'd actually be fools to offer anything more than about a 3-year contract at this point.

[Mojouw]

LaDainian Tomlinson is probably the best, most recent 1:1 comparison. He kept it up for about 6-7 years and then went off a cliff. Roger Craig wold be another one. Same exact thing there.

Marshall Faulk made it a couple years longer, but was a couple years younger when he came into the league.

In other words, basically every one of these guys makes it to age 29, loses a step and gives you half production for a couple years (which is still ok, but not elite), and then they're done. In light of that, we'd actually be fools to offer anything more than about a 3-year contract at this point.

Absolutely. Most of the Steelers "big" contracts lately have been exactly that. 3 years that gets the player almost all the guaranteed cash and then essentially a series of "funny money" team options where the player costs more against the cap than the dead money it would create to cut him.

If I was in charge, I would use bigger guaranteed cash spread out over 3 years as bonus money to lower Bell's cap hit in 2018-2020. Then the rest of the deal (years 4-5?) would be manageable cap hits, but set up in such a way that I save money if Bell stinks and I have to cut him.

[Fire Goodell]

He knows it himself, that's why he's trying to get paid now

[steelreserve]

Absolutely. Most of the Steelers "big" contracts lately have been exactly that. 3 years that gets the player almost all the guaranteed cash and then essentially a series of "funny money" team options where the player costs more against the cap than the dead money it would create to cut him.

If I was in charge, I would use bigger guaranteed cash spread out over 3 years as bonus money to lower Bell's cap hit in 2018-2020. Then the rest of the deal (years 4-5?) would be manageable cap hits, but set up in such a way that I save money if Bell stinks and I have to cut him.

The only issue being that we tend to have snowballing restructures on most of our big contracts and end up having to eat the full amount of funny money. I really hope we don't do it with this one.

[teegre]

Since before Bell was drafted, I’ve averred that he was “Larry Centers who can run”.

At about the same age, following back-to-back 600 yard receiving seasons, Centers then had a 900 yard and a 700 yard receiving seasons (then 400, 500, 600, 600).

IMO, Bell’s rushing numbers may dwindle, but I honestly see two great receiving seasons, followed by a few very good receiving seasons. But, I do also see his rushing yards dwindling by 100 yards/season (1000, 900, 800, 700).

year / receiving (total yards from scrimmage)

2018: 900 (1900)
2019: 700 (1600)
2020: 600 (1400)
2021: 600 (1300)
2022: 500 (1100) **with another team**

[Iron Steeler]

hes agreat fantasy football player. But I am want the steelers to look for good team players.

thos season tomlin is on the hot seat with all this talent and egos.

[Mojouw]

hes agreat fantasy football player. But I am want the steelers to look for good team players.

thos season tomlin is on the hot seat with all this talent and egos.

Ok, I kinda think Bell is a clown off the field and he won't ever be my favorite player or anything....but how is he not a "team player"?

Dude never quits on Sundays. He eats up touches at a rate that would break other RBs. He can be one of the 5 most dominant weapons on offense in the game.

I mean if he quit or tore apart the locker-room or something, I get it.

But he shows up for work every Sunday and plays his ass off. Heck, how can a bad team guy be arguably the best pass blocking back in the league?

Remember, Hines Ward held out...

[86WARD]

Because he isn't worth what he is demanding, or even close to it. Even if he still were the best back in the league (Gurley has surpassed him) he still wouldn't be worth it.

The offense doesn't NEED him, but yes, it is NICE to have him.

The offense can perform with a GOOD back just fine. It does not need a GREAT back and it shouldn't pay for one. Good backs are fairly common.

The offense may not need him but Ben does. Look at the amount of outlet passes that went to Bell the second half of the season. Between that and the shallow drag routes by JuJu, the offense pretty much kept going through those two players. Yes...some was because AB was out but even when he returned, those plays were still there and working.

[86WARD]

Since before Bell was drafted, I’ve averred that he was “Larry Centers who can run”.

At about the same age, following back-to-back 600 yard receiving seasons, Centers then had a 900 yard and a 700 yard receiving seasons (then 400, 500, 600, 600).

IMO, Bell’s rushing numbers may dwindle, but I honestly see two great receiving seasons, followed by a few very good receiving seasons. But, I do also see his rushing yards dwindling by 100 yards/season (1000, 900, 800, 700).

year / receiving (total yards from scrimmage)

2018: 900 (1900)
2019: 700 (1600)
2020: 600 (1400)
2021: 600 (1300)
2022: 500 (1100) **with another team**

If I could have a back that rushes for 600 and receives 1300, I’d take it every time. You wouldn’t take a back that provides 2000 yards worth of production?

Edit - nvm. I read your post wrong...lol. I thought you were posting receiving yards there...lol.

[DesertSteel]

Ok, I kinda think Bell is a clown off the field and he won't ever be my favorite player or anything....but how is he not a "team player"?

Dude never quits on Sundays. He eats up touches at a rate that would break other RBs. He can be one of the 5 most dominant weapons on offense in the game.

I mean if he quit or tore apart the locker-room or something, I get it.

But he shows up for work every Sunday and plays his ass off. Heck, how can a bad team guy be arguably the best pass blocking back in the league?

Remember, Hines Ward held out...Dude was trash the first 2-3 games back because he's NOT a team player.

[Mojouw]

Dude was trash the first 2-3 games back because he's NOT a team player.

I mean that's a cool story and all. But, first Bell is not the first or the last player to skip camp over a contract issue. That's business and happens all the time in the NFL. If every play that did that was not a "team" guy - well the league would be quite a bit smaller.

Second, the "He missed camp and sucked beacause of it." is a bit of a non-starter for me. Look at the preseason snaps for all the skill guys: https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/stats?type=pre

AB caught 2 passes all preseason. Even if we give all of Watson's preseason rushes to Bell, that's 37 rushes. I don't think that would've made much of a difference.

Maybe it can be argued that all that practice time would've helped? Again, what does Bell gain by 7 on 7 drills or position drills? Is there anything he doesn't already know?

One could argue that since the Steelers won all but one of those games, what's the big deal? One could also argue that the lack of playing time together by the starting O-line in camp and preseason games was a WAY bigger deal than Bell missing time. One could argue that the Steelers coaching staff's decision to hardly play the starting offense in the preseason was more of cause of the team's "slow" start than any one player missing time.

But no one wants to do that because Bell is a loudmouth fool that is demanding staggering amounts of money, so it easier to paint him as the bad guy.

[steelreserve]

Maybe it can be argued that all that practice time would've helped? Again, what does Bell gain by 7 on 7 drills or position drills? Is there anything he doesn't already know?

I think what Bell gains from either practice time or game action is repetitions of a play unfolding and holes opening up in front of him. His whole game is anticipating where the seam is going to be a split-second before anyone else, and that's what sets him apart from other running backs. That doesn't seem like the kind of thing where you just come in cold after 9 months of not seeing it and pick up right where you left off. Working out on your own doesn't do anything to help that. His play on the field for the first month echoed that pretty strongly.

I mean, if it was a basketball team, and the point guard didn't practice with the team at all, and just did a bunch of shooting drills and passing drills on his own and told everyone to relax, it'd be OK ... and then he came in and sucked for the first month, people would be saying "look at that idiot, he was totally out of sync with his team."



One could argue that since the Steelers won all but one of those games, what's the big deal? One could also argue that the lack of playing time together by the starting O-line in camp and preseason games was a WAY bigger deal than Bell missing time. One could argue that the Steelers coaching staff's decision to hardly play the starting offense in the preseason was more of cause of the team's "slow" start than any one player missing time.

But no one wants to do that because Bell is a loudmouth fool that is demanding staggering amounts of money, so it easier to paint him as the bad guy.

When the team is not ready for the season for something like 4 or 5 out of the last 6 years, then yeah, I think that points to some poor coaching decisions. Add an individual player going above and beyond to prepare poorly on top of that, and that player is probably going to do even worse.

But I thought pointing fingers at the coaching staff was taking the easy way out because we didn't understand what goes on behind the scenes? Which one is it?

[Mojouw]

When the team is not ready for the season for something like 4 or 5 out of the last 6 years, then yeah, I think that points to some poor coaching decisions. Add an individual player going above and beyond to prepare poorly on top of that, and that player is probably going to do even worse.

But I thought pointing fingers at the coaching staff was taking the easy way out because we didn't understand what goes on behind the scenes? Which one is it?

Well, I have no problem calling the staff out on this one. We have like actual data and stuff. We can track the Steelers preseason game and practice habits and compare them to other teams. For better or for worse, the Steelers play their top guys on offense less than most other teams. Maybe it matters. Maybe it doesn't. I haven't the foggiest.

I do know that all this talk of slow starts and the team went, what 3-1 to open the season? Winning two division games, handily beating the Vikings, and only losing to the Bears in one of those semi-annual weird Steelers forget how to play football games.

I am not seeing where Bell contributed in any significant way to the Steelers 2017 season ending? I mean I guess failing to put up league MVP numbers is less than a perfect situation and yeah, holdouts suck, and like I said he is kinda a jerk -- but there still doesn't seem to be a straight line conclusion to Bell is not a team guy.

Unless the real point is that Bell should shut up, work hard 24/7/365 and take whatever offer the Steelers and (more importantly) their fans think is reasonable? I mean if that is what we are arguing about on this thread overall, then yeah -- Bell is never going to be a "team guy".

[DesertSteel]

I mean that's a cool story and all. But, first Bell is not the first or the last player to skip camp over a contract issue. That's business and happens all the time in the NFL. If every play that did that was not a "team" guy - well the league would be quite a bit smaller.

Second, the "He missed camp and sucked beacause of it." is a bit of a non-starter for me. Look at the preseason snaps for all the skill guys: https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/stats?type=pre

AB caught 2 passes all preseason. Even if we give all of Watson's preseason rushes to Bell, that's 37 rushes. I don't think that would've made much of a difference.

Maybe it can be argued that all that practice time would've helped? Again, what does Bell gain by 7 on 7 drills or position drills? Is there anything he doesn't already know?

One could argue that since the Steelers won all but one of those games, what's the big deal? One could also argue that the lack of playing time together by the starting O-line in camp and preseason games was a WAY bigger deal than Bell missing time. One could argue that the Steelers coaching staff's decision to hardly play the starting offense in the preseason was more of cause of the team's "slow" start than any one player missing time.

But no one wants to do that because Bell is a loudmouth fool that is demanding staggering amounts of money, so it easier to paint him as the bad guy.
It’s a cool story because it’s true. I don’t care how much camp and preseason he misses but you better be ready game one. AB was ready. Bell sucked. You asked for an example of why he wasn’t a team player and I gave a valid one. Throwing out contract demands and threats right before a playoff game is another. Just because he’s not the first one to do it doesn’t mean it’s acceptable. He’s a me-first guy and would be willing to wreck the season if it got him an extra million.

[lipps83]

It’s a cool story because it’s true. I don’t care how much camp and preseason he misses but you better be ready game one. AB was ready. Bell sucked. You asked for an example of why he wasn’t a team player and I gave a valid one. Throwing out contract demands and threats right before a playoff game is another. Just because he’s not the first one to do it doesn’t mean it’s acceptable. He’s a me-first guy and would be willing to wreck the season if it got him an extra million.

Yeah, but he catches a lot of passes and stuff and averaged a mighty 4.0 ypc with plodding elephant speed. These are some of things no other back can do. Not even an aging Deangelo Williams in Bell's absence.

I say pay Bell what he wants even if it makes the team worse off because you can't quite sign some other quality players in spots that aren't so easily replaced as a running back. I also bought his jersey and action figure so I don't want to lose out on a solid investment.

Plus I like saying "Bell". It has a nice ring to it.

[Born2Steel]

Well this conversation has devolved nicely into 2 sides each digging their heels in and refusing actual discussion.

I would be willing to bring in a RB that can average 4.5 yards/carry, 7.5yards/reception, can be above average in pass blocking, will do this for league minimum to approx $5M/season, and always puts team needs over his own wants. I just don't know who that is yet. Would have to be either a FA, or somebody available in this year's draft, because he's not currently on the team. I will need time to find some names, and get some stat facts, and I'll get back to this thread when I find him.

There is nobody that has comparable numbers in free agency. Maybe Isaiah Crowell would match up the closest(and not very close) with age as a consideration as well.

In the draft, not much to go on stats-wise. Some of the more promising guys like Sony Michel, or Ronald Jones, still only averaged 1 reception per game over their career. And I think either would need to be selected in the 1st or 2nd round.

I'll keep looking.

[teegre]

I would say that Bell’s off-season surgery had as much (more?) to do with his slow start than him missing training camp.

[AtlantaDan]

Bell has been quite the busy bee with media appearances at the Super Bowl

Le'Veon Bell (http://www.tmz.com/person/leveon-bell/) says he doesn't wanna play anywhere but Pittsburgh ... but he wants a long-term deal ASAP 'cause the whole process is wearin' him out.

"I just wanna get a deal done. I'm tired of having to deal with this every year," Le'Veon told TMZ Sports at EA Sports' Pre-Super Bowl party in Minny.


http://www.tmz.com/videos/0_avu5dm5b

http://www.tmz.com/2018/02/02/leveon-bell-steelers-contract-ryan-shazier/

[Born2Steel]

Bell has been quite the busy bee with media appearances at the Super Bowl

Le'Veon Bell (http://www.tmz.com/person/leveon-bell/) says he doesn't wanna play anywhere but Pittsburgh ... but he wants a long-term deal ASAP 'cause the whole process is wearin' him out.

"I just wanna get a deal done. I'm tired of having to deal with this every year," Le'Veon told TMZ Sports at EA Sports' Pre-Super Bowl party in Minny.


http://www.tmz.com/videos/0_avu5dm5b

http://www.tmz.com/2018/02/02/leveon-bell-steelers-contract-ryan-shazier/


Yes, and for a guy like Bell, 2 years in a row equates to "every year".

[AtlantaDan]

Bell has been quite the busy bee with media appearances at the Super Bowl

Le'Veon Bell (http://www.tmz.com/person/leveon-bell/) says he doesn't wanna play anywhere but Pittsburgh ... but he wants a long-term deal ASAP 'cause the whole process is wearin' him out.

"I just wanna get a deal done. I'm tired of having to deal with this every year," Le'Veon told TMZ Sports at EA Sports' Pre-Super Bowl party in Minny.

http://www.tmz.com/2018/02/02/leveon-bell-steelers-contract-ryan-shazier/

959539937459650565

The Steelers can just as easily lose in the playoffs or have Bell not make it through a Steelers playoff run without Bell as they can with him.

The question is whether they can get to the playoffs without Bell - my guess is they can. Given what Bell wants in a long term deal (which the Steelers are not going to pay) and the cost of the franchise tag I say spend the Bell $$ somewhere else