Explaining The Fifth-Year Option Process Of Steelers OLB Bud Dupree

[Shoes]

In addition to deciding whether or not to sign running back Le’Veon Bell to a long-term contract extension, or place the franchise tag on him, the Pittsburgh Steelers will also need to make another decision by just after the draft takes place on the future of outside linebacker Bud Dupree, the team’s former first round draft pick in 2015. That decision revolves around whether or not to pick up his fifth-year option that’s available this offseason as a former first-round draft pick.
After reading a few comments and receiving a few emails on the Dupree fifth-year option decision, it’s clear that several people aren’t entirely clear about how the process works. In this post, I will attempt to clear up all misconceptions related to Dupree and his potential fifth-year option.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2018/01/explaining-fifth-year-option-process-steelers-olb-bud-dupree/

[steelreserve]

Giving ourselves the option to pay $10 million for a guy who has shown the ability to do jack shit? Oh please, where do we sign up for that?

Don't interest another dime in this project until there's some sign - any sign - that it's likely to pay off. Otherwise you're throwing good money after bad just because he was a first-round pick.

[st33lersguy]

Pay him that much to get pushed away from the play for another year? You must be nuts

[BlackAndGold]

Pick up the option and if he doesn't improve then cut him. It's simple (well not that simple since you'll have to hope he doesn't get badly injured).

Rather do that then risk him breaking out then having to worry about potentially placing a $14/15 mil franchise tag on him.

[Mojouw]

Pick up the option and if he doesn't improve then cut him. It's simple (well not that simple since you'll have to hope he doesn't get badly injured).

Rather do that then risk him breaking out then having to worry about potentially placing a $14/15 mil franchise tag on him.

Hey, look! Logic and reason make an appearance. I mean why wouldn't a team do this. I realize Shazier's situation is front and center in all our minds, but that is still a rare situation. Picking up the option is about the lowest risk route a team can take.

[steelreserve]

Hey, look! Logic and reason make an appearance. I mean why wouldn't a team do this. I realize Shazier's situation is front and center in all our minds, but that is still a rare situation. Picking up the option is about the lowest risk route a team can take.

I guarantee you if we pick up the option, he will suck ass all year and then tear his ACL in the last game of the season.

I just don't see a compelling reason to pull the trigger on it, just a lot of what-ifs.

omg, but what if he suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? Well, there's nothing that makes me think it's any more likely Bud Dupree will suddenly do that than any other random player in the league will. What if Robert Golden suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? We're not wringing our hands over that. It's only because Dupree was a #1 draft pick and therefore "supposed" to be good. But all he's done is play at a below-average level and show that he's STILL struggling with some very basic things.

Does that sound like a guy we should be worried is suddenly going to blow the top off the market? To me, it's more like we should already be looking for someone else. If Dupree somehow puts it together in the meantime, then hey, great. If not, then it doesn't really affect us, we've already moved on.

[Born2Steel]

I guarantee you if we pick up the option, he will suck ass all year and then tear his ACL in the last game of the season.

I just don't see a compelling reason to pull the trigger on it, just a lot of what-ifs.

omg, but what if he suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? Well, there's nothing that makes me think it's any more likely Bud Dupree will suddenly do that than any other random player in the league will. What if Robert Golden suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? We're not wringing our hands over that. It's only because Dupree was a #1 draft pick and therefore "supposed" to be good. But all he's done is play at a below-average level and show that he's STILL struggling with some very basic things.

Does that sound like a guy we should be worried is suddenly going to blow the top off the market? To me, it's more like we should already be looking for someone else. If Dupree somehow puts it together in the meantime, then hey, great. If not, then it doesn't really affect us, we've already moved on.

Ok then, if you don't do it, who is the OLB opposite Watt? And don't say "A draft pick". "A draft pick" is not the answer to this question. Because moving forward I want a name of an actual player on the roster. If you cannot give me an upgrade over what Dupree does, then you have no answer. OR, the answer is Bud Dupree. That's the ONLY 2 ways to look at it. Dupree and Watt, OR No Player/Lesser Player and Watt. I'll go with Dupree for the time being. At least that way there is an actual chance of improvement. The other answer is ZERO chance of improvement.

[st33lersguy]

I guarantee you if we pick up the option, he will suck ass all year and then tear his ACL in the last game of the season.

I just don't see a compelling reason to pull the trigger on it, just a lot of what-ifs.

omg, but what if he suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? Well, there's nothing that makes me think it's any more likely Bud Dupree will suddenly do that than any other random player in the league will. What if Robert Golden suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? We're not wringing our hands over that. It's only because Dupree was a #1 draft pick and therefore "supposed" to be good. But all he's done is play at a below-average level and show that he's STILL struggling with some very basic things.

Does that sound like a guy we should be worried is suddenly going to blow the top off the market? To me, it's more like we should already be looking for someone else. If Dupree somehow puts it together in the meantime, then hey, great. If not, then it doesn't really affect us, we've already moved on.

If he does blow up, it could just be one of those "play big in a contract year then coast once I get" paid kind of deals, the likes of which was seen with Albert Haynesworth anyway.

Honestly, Bud Dupree is not worth it, and nothing he has shown proves otherwise

[steelreserve]

Ok then, if you don't do it, who is the OLB opposite Watt? And don't say "A draft pick". "A draft pick" is not the answer to this question. Because moving forward I want a name of an actual player on the roster. If you cannot give me an upgrade over what Dupree does, then you have no answer. OR, the answer is Bud Dupree. That's the ONLY 2 ways to look at it. Dupree and Watt, OR No Player/Lesser Player and Watt. I'll go with Dupree for the time being. At least that way there is an actual chance of improvement. The other answer is ZERO chance of improvement.

Dupree is still under contract for 2018 whether we pick up the option or not, so you can have your wish AND we can use the time to start getting his replacement up to speed.

I don't really get the point of your post; Draft Pick was a starter this year and was better than Dupree immediately. So I don't know why you'd say it's impossible to improve that way over a guy who is below-average.

I doubt we'll draft an OLB highly though, since ILB is a Goatse-sized problem and other positions need replenishment too, plus maybe we get a QB. So most likely it's Dupree this year with like a 4th or 5th round rando who we give a few snaps to see what we've got. I would've said Chickillo is worth a look too, but he seems pretty average at this point so that's a sideways move.

[pczach]

I guarantee you if we pick up the option, he will suck ass all year and then tear his ACL in the last game of the season.

I just don't see a compelling reason to pull the trigger on it, just a lot of what-ifs.

omg, but what if he suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? Well, there's nothing that makes me think it's any more likely Bud Dupree will suddenly do that than any other random player in the league will. What if Robert Golden suddenly has a monster season out of nowhere? We're not wringing our hands over that. It's only because Dupree was a #1 draft pick and therefore "supposed" to be good. But all he's done is play at a below-average level and show that he's STILL struggling with some very basic things.

Does that sound like a guy we should be worried is suddenly going to blow the top off the market? To me, it's more like we should already be looking for someone else. If Dupree somehow puts it together in the meantime, then hey, great. If not, then it doesn't really affect us, we've already moved on.



But what if he just goes out and produces a solid year, with 10 sacks and is a productive member of the defense?

I don't understand how everyone "knows" this guy is going to suck with only three years under his belt and has had some injuries that have limited him a bit. If he's let go, that creates another hole in the roster that needs to be filled and then start over again. If it's a free agent that takes his place, a good pass rushing OLB is going to cost more than $10 mil a year. If they go for a replacement through the draft, there is no guarantee of success and they start over again at the position while Ben uses up whatever time he has left.

I don't see picking up the fifth-year option as being that much of a risk. I guess we'll see what the team feels about him. The only way I think they let him go is if they think they have someone that can play close to his level already on the roster or the practice squad. That would either be Chickillo or Adams. Chickillo also just completed his third season, just like Dupree. If Dupree is let go, then Chickillo will need a new contract going forward. If Adams is who they believe in, they have a couple years with him and probably draft another OLB or two anyway.

[Born2Steel]

Dupree is still under contract for 2018 whether we pick up the option or not, so you can have your wish AND we can use the time to start getting his replacement up to speed.

I don't really get the point of your post; Draft Pick was a starter this year and was better than Dupree immediately. So I don't know why you'd say it's impossible to improve that way over a guy who is below-average.

I doubt we'll draft an OLB highly though, since ILB is a Goatse-sized problem and other positions need replenishment too, plus maybe we get a QB. So most likely it's Dupree this year with like a 4th or 5th round rando who we give a few snaps to see what we've got. I would've said Chickillo is worth a look too, but he seems pretty average at this point so that's a sideways move.

No, DRAFT PICK did not produce. Watt produced. The 2 OLB names drafted in the 1st before Watt were Jones and Dupree. So yes there is a chance DRAFT PICK could produce year one. By the current math, a 33% chance. Problem is (The problem I'm attempting to point out anyway), we have zero players to replace Bud with that would be an upgrade. And you simply cannot field a team on hope. Get somebody on this team to upgrade Bud, and I'm with you. But until that player has a name, Bud will be that player.

[teegre]

Two words: Melvin Ingram

[Psycho Ward 86]

Two words: Melvin Ingram

my hopes exactly. a lot of good pass rushers out there who took some time to master their craft. did Dupree finally develop a counter move? no, which isnt too encouraging. but he reports said he could barely even raise his arm on gamedays unless he took certain painkilling shots (for a good chunk of the season). that could have had an impact on his ability to embrace contact with his inside shoulder (it was his inside shoulder for those who dont remember that was so badly injured) who knows how bad that injury really was. a full season of a healthy Dupree in 2018, and im ready to determine who he really is. its really gonna suck if he doesnt pan out

[steelreserve]

But what if he just goes out and produces a solid year, with 10 sacks and is a productive member of the defense?

I don't understand how everyone "knows" this guy is going to suck with only three years under his belt and has had some injuries that have limited him a bit. If he's let go, that creates another hole in the roster that needs to be filled and then start over again. If it's a free agent that takes his place, a good pass rushing OLB is going to cost more than $10 mil a year. If they go for a replacement through the draft, there is no guarantee of success and they start over again at the position while Ben uses up whatever time he has left.

I don't see picking up the fifth-year option as being that much of a risk. I guess we'll see what the team feels about him. The only way I think they let him go is if they think they have someone that can play close to his level already on the roster or the practice squad. That would either be Chickillo or Adams. Chickillo also just completed his third season, just like Dupree. If Dupree is let go, then Chickillo will need a new contract going forward. If Adams is who they believe in, they have a couple years with him and probably draft another OLB or two anyway.

If he produces 10 sacks, it's going to be Jason Worilds dong sacks that all they do is create doubt and jack up his price, but don't do much to actually help us win football games.

No, we don't "know" for sure what'll happen, but three years is a pretty decent amount of time to make whatever adjustment it is your need to make, so if he hasn't done it yet, why would we think he's any more likely to now? Not a lot of players out there who don't "get it" until after half a career and then suddenly switch it on. We've seen this show before.

I mean, you can look at the risk two ways. The one that most people worry about is that he suddenly becomes a top-5 linebacker and is in demand in free agency. Well, I've got news for you, if that happens we have to worry about his contract anyway because we usually try to extend those guys before the option year. Or the alternative is still lose him but save about $3 million for that one year. Not a hell of a lot of benefit.

The other risk, the one that I worry about, is overpaying to keep a player who's just not very good. Not because of the injury clause, but because we get ourselves all worked up, omg but who else is going to play linebacker, omg but he was the #1 pick, this has to be the year, etc., and we get psyched out into thinking we HAVE to keep him. In reality, we aren't going to have a problem at OLB without Dupree, we have a problem at that position right NOW and Dupree isn't solving it. We're no worse off without him unless he changes dramatically.

And by the way, I would say there is a bigger chance of having to pay Dupree for a year because of injury than there is that he will suddenly become a top-5 linebacker. Add in the psyche-out bullshit and it's really a shaky move for us.

[pczach]

If he produces 10 sacks, it's going to be Jason Worilds dong sacks that all they do is create doubt and jack up his price, but don't do much to actually help us win football games.

No, we don't "know" for sure what'll happen, but three years is a pretty decent amount of time to make whatever adjustment it is your need to make, so if he hasn't done it yet, why would we think he's any more likely to now? Not a lot of players out there who don't "get it" until after half a career and then suddenly switch it on. We've seen this show before.

I mean, you can look at the risk two ways. The one that most people worry about is that he suddenly becomes a top-5 linebacker and is in demand in free agency. Well, I've got news for you, if that happens we have to worry about his contract anyway because we usually try to extend those guys before the option year. Or the alternative is still lose him but save about $3 million for that one year. Not a hell of a lot of benefit.

The other risk, the one that I worry about, is overpaying to keep a player who's just not very good. Not because of the injury clause, but because we get ourselves all worked up, omg but who else is going to play linebacker, omg but he was the #1 pick, this has to be the year, etc., and we get psyched out into thinking we HAVE to keep him. In reality, we aren't going to have a problem at OLB without Dupree, we have a problem at that position right NOW and Dupree isn't solving it. We're no worse off without him unless he changes dramatically.

And by the way, I would say there is a bigger chance of having to pay Dupree for a year because of injury than there is that he will suddenly become a top-5 linebacker. Add in the psyche-out bullshit and it's really a shaky move for us.


But have we seen a healthy Bud Dupree yet? I don't think we have.

That alone makes you question his ability to stay healthy, but at the same time it makes you wonder how he will be able to play if his inside shoulder is fully healthy for a full season next year. That has to be calculated into the equation somehow. The coaches know what he is capable of at full strength much more than we are. Hopefully we find out next year.

[steelreserve]

No, DRAFT PICK did not produce. Watt produced. The 2 OLB names drafted in the 1st before Watt were Jones and Dupree. So yes there is a chance DRAFT PICK could produce year one. By the current math, a 33% chance. Problem is (The problem I'm attempting to point out anyway), we have zero players to replace Bud with that would be an upgrade. And you simply cannot field a team on hope. Get somebody on this team to upgrade Bud, and I'm with you. But until that player has a name, Bud will be that player.

So, you're making an argument that we have a low chance of doing better than Dupree in the draft ... based partly on the fact that Dupree himself was not a very good draft pick? How does that even make sense?

Fact is, Dupree has been nothing more than a replacement-level player so far for us, so I don't see any serious decline in production whether we hand his job to Chickillo or any random bum we pick up for $900,000. Show me what we're losing that way.

[Born2Steel]

So, you're making an argument that we have a low chance of doing better than Dupree in the draft ... based partly on the fact that Dupree himself was not a very good draft pick? How does that even make sense?

Fact is, Dupree has been nothing more than a replacement-level player so far for us, so I don't see any serious decide in production whether we hand his job to Chickillo or any random bum we pick up for $900,000. Show me what were losing that way.

No. I'm saying that until we have a draft pick on this team that is an upgrade to Bud, Bud is the OLB opposite Watt. Any other approach makes no sense. We will draft another OLB this draft most likely. Until that draft pick does indeed win that starting role over Dupree, you pick up his 5th year option and go with what you do have as the best option.You can't have a future HoFer at every position. Sometimes you have to play the guy you have because he's the best option to win games with. Until he DOES GET UPGRADED, he's that guy. Another way to put it. Bud Dupree, right now today, is better than the other OLBs that would replace him on the field, so he plays. Once a player makes this team that would be a better player than Bud Dupree on the field, that player would be on the field instead. So, in the meantime, we pick up Bud's 5th year option because that gives us the best chance to win football games, today, and as far as we can see into the future, currently.

[Mojouw]

So, you're making an argument that we have a low chance of doing better than Dupree in the draft ... based partly on the fact that Dupree himself was not a very good draft pick? How does that even make sense?

Fact is, Dupree has been nothing more than a replacement-level player so far for us, so I don't see any serious decline in production whether we hand his job to Chickillo or any random bum we pick up for $900,000. Show me what we're losing that way.

Man, I hope you know I enjoy your postings and respect your opinions. But you gotta find me one OLB that puts up the kinda production you're talking about for 900K.

Does that mean that Dupree should just unquestionably get handed 9.5 million? Of course not.

Frank Zombo makes 1.2 million. Only guys making less than 4 million per year with ANY NFL production are on rookie deals.

Now 4-5 million is less than Duprees option but is Arthur Moats 2.0 really gonna help this team move up in the AFC?

[steelreserve]

Man, I hope you know I enjoy your postings and respect your opinions. But you gotta find me one OLB that puts up the kinda production you're talking about for 900K.

Does that mean that Dupree should just unquestionably get handed 9.5 million? Of course not.

Frank Zombo makes 1.2 million. Only guys making less than 4 million per year with ANY NFL production are on rookie deals.

Now 4-5 million is less than Duprees option but is Arthur Moats 2.0 really gonna help this team move up in the AFC?


I don't think it will help us move up or move down. Maybe I'm missing something, but Dupree basically has no meaningful production. The point I'm trying to make has kind of gotten lost here - I'm not saying "let's go out and find someone better than Dupree right now for $1 million." I'm saying we don't need to worry about what we'll do without him, because as it stands, it's not that big of a loss.

Now, Dupree at $1.8 million or whatever he makes at least fills a gap for us, in that we have someone who meets the minimum requirement for the position. We've got that for one more year regardless. Dupree at $10 million does not solve a problem for us. You want to talk about who's available to replace him - well, in 2019, who could you get on the open market for $10 million? Not who could you get on the open market for $1 million. That's what we're asking.

We're not talking about Dupree at $1.8 million so we don't have to spend big bucks on the open market. We're not talking about Dupree for $1.8 million or whoever we could replace him with for $1.8 million in 2019. We're talking about Dupree for $10 million or whoever else we could get for $10 million. THAT guy would be a badass. Those are our choices. OR, it's entirely possible we find a guy for $5 million who's better than Dupree, which is a "win" for us financially at least. So why are we even talking about the chance of paying Dupree $10 million unless he shows somewhere at least in the ballpark of $10 million in productivity?

I think if anyone's serious about the option year, they're not thinking about Dupree, they're thinking about the IDEA of Dupree, which unfortunately is a lot better than the actual player.

[Count Steeler]

We can only judge by what we see on the field. We don't know if the guy is a bone head and is always out of position or if Butler actually schemed him out of the plays.

That being said, with the coaches projections, I would try to sign him to a five year deal now. Back loaded with less than half guaranteed. I'm thinking an average of 6-7mil a year, so something like 4mil, 5mil, 8mil, 8mil, 8mil. Guarantee 12mil, which is roughly what he would make if we take the option now. If he can't get his shit together next year, or at least shows some signs of life, bye, bye.

[Mojouw]

I don't think it will help us move up or move down. Maybe I'm missing something, but Dupree basically has no meaningful production. The point I'm trying to make has kind of gotten lost here - I'm not saying "let's go out and find someone better than Dupree right now for $1 million." I'm saying we don't need to worry about what we'll do without him, because as it stands, it's not that big of a loss.

Now, Dupree at $1.8 million or whatever he makes at least fills a gap for us, in that we have someone who meets the minimum requirement for the position. We've got that for one more year regardless. Dupree at $10 million does not solve a problem for us. You want to talk about who's available to replace him - well, in 2019, who could you get on the open market for $10 million? Not who could you get on the open market for $1 million. That's what we're asking.

We're not talking about Dupree at $1.8 million so we don't have to spend big bucks on the open market. We're not talking about Dupree for $1.8 million or whoever we could replace him with for $1.8 million in 2019. We're talking about Dupree for $10 million or whoever else we could get for $10 million. THAT guy would be a badass. Those are our choices. OR, it's entirely possible we find a guy for $5 million who's better than Dupree, which is a "win" for us financially at least. So why are we even talking about the chance of paying Dupree $10 million unless he shows somewhere at least in the ballpark of $10 million in productivity?

I think if anyone's serious about the option year, they're not thinking about Dupree, they're thinking about the IDEA of Dupree, which unfortunately is a lot better than the actual player.

OK - I can see that. But apparently the open market for pass rushers in 2019 is just old guys and the HOPE that the Texans are dumb enough to let Jadaveon Clowney hit the open market (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/outside-linebacker/).

I just get stuck on the fact that this team already needs at least 2 OLBs because the depth is only 1 deep (chickillo and adams) let's not go creating another hole.

I also couple that with 2018, for me,being Dupree's make or break year. If he "makes it" you have that 5th year option to get him signed to a reasonable extension. He continues to fizzle, then you can just release the option and you are fine. I realize that injury is a worry, but you can't make decisions based on that. Finally, in my fantasy GM role, I never intend on letting Dupree play at $9.5 million, I'm hitting him with the option, IF he has a break-out 2018, I'm hitting him with a team-friendly extension (like Tuitt, Decastro, and Heyward) before that option year cap hit becomes official. If he balks at that, I THEN let him play out the option year and say "Do it again" if you want real big boy $$.

[steelreserve]

OK - I can see that. But apparently the open market for pass rushers in 2019 is just old guys and the HOPE that the Texans are dumb enough to let Jadaveon Clowney hit the open market (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/outside-linebacker/).

I just get stuck on the fact that this team already needs at least 2 OLBs because the depth is only 1 deep (chickillo and adams) let's not go creating another hole.

I also couple that with 2018, for me,being Dupree's make or break year. If he "makes it" you have that 5th year option to get him signed to a reasonable extension. He continues to fizzle, then you can just release the option and you are fine. I realize that injury is a worry, but you can't make decisions based on that. Finally, in my fantasy GM role, I never intend on letting Dupree play at $9.5 million, I'm hitting him with the option, IF he has a break-out 2018, I'm hitting him with a team-friendly extension (like Tuitt, Decastro, and Heyward) before that option year cap hit becomes official. If he balks at that, I THEN let him play out the option year and say "Do it again" if you want real big boy $$.

I mean, I get what you're saying, I just don't think you can worry about a player like that. Marginal, pedestrian, barely passable ... those are the terms I'd use to describe Dupree and I don't think many would beg to differ. It wouldn't really be creating a hole.

Maybe the issue is that people are still holding out hope he could be a decent player, but again, that's the IDEA of Dupree, it's not Dupree the player. As far as I'm concerned it's time to write him off, and if we get anything out of the pick at this point, consider it an unexpected bonus.

In other words, we're not creating a hole by cutting bait with Dupree. We already have a hole and we need to address it. It's time to accept that and move on. Farting around with this situation any more is just going to drag it out longer, and possibly lead to stupid moves or backing ourselves into a corner that hinders us from solving the problem down the road.

[Born2Steel]

But...I think the opposite is true as well. Since Bud WAS a first round pick, expectations were set higher than his production has been. So for that reason, I can agree he has been a bust. However, if he had been a 3rd round pick, he would be considered a serviceable OLB. The question remains for the team, cut a serviceable player, which leaves a even bigger hole in this defense, of 5th year option and try to upgrade through the draft, so we at least don't hurt ourselves in the process. No, Bud is not the player we thought we were getting when he was drafted in the 1st round, but he's still the better option to play the position right now, until somebody comes in and replaces him. It's really not an 'all or none' situation. You CAN do both.

[86WARD]

Is their another Watt in the draft? No really...not a “Watt type”...I mean another Watt with the family genes...lol.

They really aren’t in a position right now NOT to pick his option up...

[steelreserve]

But...I think the opposite is true as well. Since Bud WAS a first round pick, expectations were set higher than his production has been. So for that reason, I can agree he has been a bust. However, if he had been a 3rd round pick, he would be considered a serviceable OLB. The question remains for the team, cut a serviceable player, which leaves a even bigger hole in this defense, of 5th year option and try to upgrade through the draft, so we at least don't hurt ourselves in the process. No, Bud is not the player we thought we were getting when he was drafted in the 1st round, but he's still the better option to play the position right now, until somebody comes in and replaces him. It's really not an 'all or none' situation. You CAN do both.

Well, maybe. It seems like a fundamental issue here is that people have different ideas of how useful Dupree actually is. I think everyone agrees he's not a star or an impact player of any kind. And he's not absolute bottom-of-the-barrel bad. That leaves "average" to "pretty bad."

My own view of him is that he's below-average - we don't actually WANT him to be on the field. So we ought to be looking for a replacement already. If you think he's serviceable, then that's a different story, we want him there until we have someone who is actually above-average in our hands. I'll admit he's right on the borderline of those two, which makes it hard to figure out. But I don't like the idea of getting by with him. And I certainly don't think you should be contemplating a $10 million deal fora player like that; that's just madness.

So far, I think he's shown value roughly on the level of Arthur Moats from 2 or 3 years ago (not the Ghost of Arthur Moats that we have now), Keyaron Fox if he was an OLB, that kind of journeyman player. If we think there is a value in keeping him, offer him a journeyman contract and see if he takes it. Throw in some hefty incentives if it helps make the deal happen; he won't reach them. I guess that's the difference between a below-average journeyman and a "serviceable" player, which is why we aren't of the same mind with him.



Is their another Watt in the draft? No really...not a “Watt type”...I mean another Watt with the family genes...lol.

They really aren’t in a position right now NOT to pick his option up...

It's $10 million. They're not in a position to actually keep a player like that on the roster for that amount of money either. So why even fuck around with it?

He does not have us over a barrel or anything, because he is just not that good. People are acting like we shouldn't replace him unless it's with a superstar. No - just replace him with someone below-average who doesn't cost us $10 million. That's easy.

[Steeldude]

He does not have us over a barrel or anything, because he is just not that good. People are acting like we shouldn't replace him unless it's with a superstar. No - just replace him with someone below-average who doesn't cost us $10 million. That's easy.

This.

Chickillo could put forth the same results, or perhaps better because he hustles.

[BlackAndGold]

It's $10 million. They're not in a position to actually keep a player like that on the roster for that amount of money either. So why even fuck around with it?

He does not have us over a barrel or anything, because he is just not that good. People are acting like we shouldn't replace him unless it's with a superstar. No - just replace him with someone below-average who doesn't cost us $10 million. That's easy.

It's $10 million in 2019 if they don't cut him before the new league year(again in 2019 after the 2018 season)

I have no idea why you're complaining. If he doesn't improve he'll be cut, meaning he won't be getting his $10 million dollars.

Why do people have such a hard understanding how this 5th year option works?

[steelreserve]

It's $10 million in 2019 if they don't cut him before the new league year(again in 2019 after the 2018 season)

I have no idea why you're complaining. If he doesn't improve he'll be cut, meaning he won't be getting his $10 million dollars.

Why do people have such a hard understanding how this 5th year option works?


I understand exactly how it works. There's just NO benefit to doing it.

Wow, we have the option to keep a guy for 3x what he's worth, great news for us. Explain the benefit. The guy is not worth $10 million and he isn't going to be worth $10 million.

Now on the other hand, there's say a 5% chance of having to pay him $10 million even if we don't want to thanks to the injury clause. And a MUCH bigger chance, probably somewhere between 25% and 50%, that we'll make a mistake because we talked ourselves into it. "omg we have the option, we gotta see if this is finally his year, man!!!!" As noted in the original article, teams that exercise the option tend to rarely cut those players, probably because they still have some unfulfilled hard-on for them. The Steelers also seem to have a history of letting guys who are no good hang around way past their due date trying to prove themselves. No. Fucking. Thanks.

The option year is worthless, nothing but a trap. How about this - you let him play out next year and then if you're interested, sign him to a deal that pays him market value. Think that'll be $10 million? Then what is even the point? It's an option so far out of the money it'll never pay off, but it DOES come with all the risk. No, no, no, not ever.

[BlackAndGold]

What if they decline the option and Dupree breaks out? That is also a trap since he'll be looking at a $15 mil franchise tag if he does so. We can go back and forth on this all day.


A. Pick up 5th year option: Dupree doesn't improve, cut him and he wont receive the $10 mil. If he does improve you'll have him at a $10mil dollar price tag in 2019 when he could get more.

B. Decline the option: Dupree doesn't improve and the Steelers cut ties at the end of the 2018 season. Dupree does improve and have to place a $15 mil dollar franchise tag on him.


Can see option B being the pick if you think that DuPrEe Is BeLoW aVeRaGe aNd CaN't ImPrOvE aNd He'S jArViS jOnE's 2.0

Besides that, it's option A every time.

[steelreserve]

What if they decline the option and Dupree breaks out? That is also a trap since he'll be looking at a $15 mil franchise tag if he does so. We can go back and forth on this all day.


A. Pick up 5th year option: Dupree doesn't improve, cut him and he wont receive the $10 mil. If he does improve you'll have him at a $10mil dollar price tag in 2019 when he could get more.

B. Decline the option: Dupree doesn't improve and the Steelers cut ties at the end of the 2018 season. Dupree does improve and have to place a $15 mil dollar franchise tag on him.


Can see option B being the pick if you think that DuPrEe Is BeLoW aVeRaGe aNd CaN't ImPrOvE aNd He'S jArViS jOnE's 2.0

Besides that, it's option A every time.


C. Pick up 5th year option: Dupree doesn't improve, talk ourselves into keeping him anyway at $10 million over some imagined shortage of talent at the linebacker position; we spend $10 million and get nothing of note.

D. Decline the option: Dupree improves but still isn't worth anywhere near $10 million. Sign him after next season for less.

E. Pick up the option: Dupree improves but still isn't worth anywhere near $10 million. Try to sign him for less but he won't do it because the option is sitting there at $10 million and he thinks that's what he should get. So instead we cut him and he signs somewhere else and we have that same lack of a player people are so worried about.

F. Pick up the option: Dupree improves but still isn't worth anywhere near $10 million. Try to sign him for less but he won't do it because the option is sitting there at $10 million. Sit there wringing our hands over it and eventually the deadline passes, and we're stuck with him at $10 million.

Realistically I think the odds of scenario A happening are almost zero, and the option doesn't even do much to help us in that case. Either we sign him to a different long-term deal with less of a cap hit at the front end (so the option was irrelevant), or we keep him on the option and save like $3 million, big whoop, and eat the full cap hit that we can't afford, which is not so good for us. If we pick up the option, scenario C or F are the most likely, both far more likely than scenario A.

I would also say the chances of him suffering a severe injury next season and cashing in the injury guarantee are much greater than the chances of him improving to a >$10 million level. Not that the injury is especially likely, just that they're both unlikely and the injury a little less so.

The reason why you pick up the fifth-year option if you're us, is if you have a player who is very good and you know you want to keep, and it gives you some leverage and breathing room. Not on what-if players who still haven't shown you they can play for shit after three seasons.

For the record, I do think Dupree has been a below average player and has shown no signs of improvement, and is therefore unlikely to improve. What have you seen that would suggest otherwise? His draft position?

In unrelated news, many other players including Jarvis Jones also didn't improve, but I don't see how that has anything to do with Dupree not improving, other than it's a funny story.

[Mojouw]

I think people need to really think about what things are valued at in the NFL.

Nick Perry is basically Bud Dupree with one decent year under his belt in terms of pass rush. He gets paid over $10 million dollars a season.

Pernell McPhee is a "yawn" at OLB and the Bears pay him $8 million per year.

There are guys that make less, but most of the non-rookie deal "starting" OLB make between 9-12 million per with legit terrifying pass rushers off the edge going up from there.

That's where that $9.5 figure comes from - it is based on math. Bottom line is that unless you grab a cheap-o draft pick and get lucky that they are amazing right away - edge players are pricey as hell.

[steelreserve]

I think people need to really think about what things are valued at in the NFL.

Nick Perry is basically Bud Dupree with one decent year under his belt in terms of pass rush. He gets paid over $10 million dollars a season.

Pernell McPhee is a "yawn" at OLB and the Bears pay him $8 million per year.

There are guys that make less, but most of the non-rookie deal "starting" OLB make between 9-12 million per with legit terrifying pass rushers off the edge going up from there.

That's where that $9.5 figure comes from - it is based on math. Bottom line is that unless you grab a cheap-o draft pick and get lucky that they are amazing right away - edge players are pricey as hell.

IIRC the rate is calculated by the average of top earners #3 through 23 at the position. So by definition we'd be paying him like a top-10, maybe top-15 pass rusher, which he isn't.

What it boils down to is I don't really think he's a good option as a starting linebacker regardless, because it looks like he just can't hack it. Continuing to beat that drum is probably just going to be frustrating, unproductive, and expensive. And picking up the fifth-year option gives us an excuse to do exactly that. I'd rather we didn't go through this again.

Is this the level of play we are comfortable with at the position? If so, if say it's been about equivalent to what you'd expect out of a third or fourth-round draft pick, or a backup OLB in the league already. So why not just do that.

I'd lean toward the established backup because there's less chance of a complete misfire while we're trying to win now, although that wouldn't rule out taking a chance in the draft also. But really - grab someone from a team with a shitty defensive line and hope a change of scenery does him some good. I don't think there's much of an upside left here with Bud.

[Mojouw]

IIRC the rate is calculated by the average of top earners #3 through 23 at the position. So by definition we'd be paying him like a top-10, maybe top-15 pass rusher, which he isn't.

What it boils down to is I don't really think he's a good option as a starting linebacker regardless, because it looks like he just can't hack it. Continuing to beat that drum is probably just going to be frustrating, unproductive, and expensive. And picking up the fifth-year option gives us an excuse to do exactly that. I'd rather we didn't go through this again.

Is this the level of play we are comfortable with at the position? If so, if say it's been about equivalent to what you'd expect out of a third or fourth-round draft pick, or a backup OLB in the league already. So why not just do that.

I'd lean toward the established backup because there's less chance of a complete misfire while we're trying to win now, although that wouldn't rule out taking a chance in the draft also. But really - grab someone from a team with a shitty defensive line and hope a change of scenery does him some good. I don't think there's much of an upside left here with Bud.

Yeah. I can get on board with that. I just still believe that picking up the option gives the team all the leverage on the off chance Dupree breaks out.

To be clear if they pick up the option and Dupree's 2018 is a repeat of 2017 than anything besides pulling it is foolish. If I ever argue against that, everyone as should feel free to pull this thread up and shame me.

But I do really believe that no one should ever give up leverage in a negotiation and the option is leverage.

[teegre]

Aside from Dupree having a career-ending injury, there’s really no risk to the fifth-year option.

If Dupree totally sucks in 2018, the Steelers can simply void the fifth year.

steelreserve, if any of the other scenarios arise, the Steelers are not locked into that $10 million; again, they can cut Dupree with no repercussions. Even in your worst-case scenarios, the Steelers could still (after the 2018 season) re-negotiate a long-term deal where Dupree’s cost would only be something like $5 million/season (4 years $20 million).

[steelreserve]

My worst-case scenario is that we talk ourselves into keeping him for the option year at full price, and as a result we can't afford someone who's actually good.

I know we have the ability to back out of the option year. But there are too many ways I can see us stupidly keeping it anyway even though we don't have to. I'd rather not even have that be a possibility.

Again, we don't gain shit from it; mostly we just set ourselves up for a lot of bad mistakes.