2018 and Beyond Secondary Make-up

[Mojouw]

Seems like "X DB stinks" and "we need a safety" have replaced the o-line as a topic on a great # of threads. So I thought I would start a thread to talk about it all in one place. The two biggest issues seem to be "What about Joe Haden and his $$$?" and "Mike Mitchell versus any other FS possibility".

My 2 cents is that the DBs look like this next season:

CB: Burns/Sutton/Hilton/Mystery Player?/Allen/Gay or a draft pick
Safety: Davis/Mitchell/Draft Pick/Golden

Haden simply costs too much. Steelers won't be able to pay him 11 million against the cap in 2018 and 2019. IF Haden is willing to do something to drastically alter the cap #'s of his deal - then he comes back and is the "mystery player" in the above list. If not, he gets cut and who knows who is the other CB on the roster. Possible that they roll five deep - that totally depends on the development of Sutton and Allen.

Safety is a really big problem. Wilcox is making far too much money to just back-up Davis and rarely ever play, at least with the Steelers cap situation. So he is either gone or a serious re-work of the contract terms needs to happen. Golden comes back because he is cheap and who else is there?

Drafting of a safety is a big issue. This got talked about in the Sutton IR thread, but looking at the last several years of the draft at the safety position, you do NOT get a year one starter for a playoff caliber team outside of the top 15 picks. You do not get an impact year one starter outside of the top 25. You do not get a long-term impact starter outside of the top 60-70 picks in a given draft year (http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?position=S&type=position). While each draft class is different, these are some rough benchmarks to go by. What is my point? Unless something odd happens and a FS prospect falls into the Steelers laps in the 1st round and/or the Steelers alter their usual planned replacement of players - Mitchell is the starting FS for the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers. Now 2019, that is a different story entirely!

Looking at safety in general and FS specifically in the free agent market -- not a great story (http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/safety/). The one guy that I honestly think would be a safe bet to improve over Mitchell would be Morgan Burnett and they don't have the money to pay him his 10+ million that the FA market will net him. Plus that would require either Davis or Burnett playing out of position at FS instead of SS.

This is an entirely too long post to argue that for mostly cap related reasons, the Steelers secondary in 2018 and beyond will depend entirely on the team hitting on previous draft picks (Sutton and Allen) and future draft picks as the replacements for Haden and Mitchell. I do not see any other way that they can make it work.

[teegre]

A few thoughts...

1) Tomlin loves Haden. Haden loves the Steelers. I do not see Haden going anywhere.

2) The coaches love Mitchell's leadership. His cap hit makes his expendable, but I have stated numerous time sin numerous places that i think he starts the 2018 season, while his replacement is drafted this upcoming April and learns for a season.

3. Davis can play FS. Heck, Davis can play all five DB positions. So, we need not limit ourselves to drafting a FS. We can draft a SS (and move Davis)... although, a FS would be optimal.

3-a) What about Mike Hilton as SS??? Really. He is the best blitzing DB that I have seen in a few years.

[zulater]

A few thoughts...

1) Tomlin loves Haden. Haden loves the Steelers. I do not see Haden going anywhere.

2) The coaches love Mitchell's leadership. His cap hit makes his expendable, but I have stated numerous time sin numerous places that i think he starts the 2018 season, while his replacement is drafted this upcoming April and learns for a season.

3. Davis can play FS. Heck, Davis can play all five DB positions. So, we need not limit ourselves to drafting a FS. We can draft a SS (and move Davis)... although, a FS would be optimal.

3-a) What about Mike Hilton as SS??? Really. He is the best blitzing DB that I have seen in a few years.

I hope you're right on Haden! :pray: The big passing plays against us really exploded right after Haden went down. It's more than a coincidence.

[Craic]

A few thoughts...

3-a) What about Mike Hilton as SS??? Really. He is the best blitzing DB that I have seen in a few years.

Overall, I agree with this post. However, I wonder about what's quoted above. (Not about Hilton as a blitzing DB, but where should play). I'd rather see Hilton as a slot CB. What a find. I'm still wondering about Sutton transitioning to safety.

- - - Updated - - -


I hope you're right on Haden! :pray: The big passing plays against us really exploded right after Haden went down. It's more than a coincidence.

Absolutely.

[Mojouw]

I think the best candidate for a CB to safety transition is Allen. I know he currently can't tackle worth a damn, but that seems to be technique rather than "want to". Plus, out of all the CBs, he is the only one with the ideal size.

I jhope Teegre is right about Haden. But with the team staring at a 20 million dollar cap overage for 2018 (assuming Bell plays on the roster for between 12-16 million), I don't see how you can pay Haden 11 million.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Mitchell stays with his $8 million dollar cap hit but Haden is gone because of his $12 million dollar cap hit? That sounds like an awful move. Haden finally solidifies this secondary and we shouldnt be messing with that. Mitchell needs to go ASAP. He's expendable at half his cap hit. His best plays are nothing more than routine assignment football. His bad plays are just too numerous especially when we play cover 2. For such a pseudo-notorious big hitting safety, few receivers seem to fear him. I have no doubt that Mitchell would be a pretty good safety in the pre-2009 era of football but thats just not the case anymore.

2018 starters: Joe Haden and Artie Burns (last chance at this Artie)/Cam Sutton on the outside, Mike Hilton in the slot. Sensabaugh/Allen/some small time free agent CB in for dime packages


The safety free agency market doesnt look good overall, but Eric Reid would be a great signing if we decided to make another bold push. His market could perhaps be under the radar because his team/defense is having a terrible season? Pure speculation. He's played extensively at FS and SS, even moved into packages as a linebacker because of the 49ers desire to put their best men on the field. Smart savvy player, and was a pro bowler as a rookie. He could be a plug and play safety for us.

Haden's $11.9 million hit is too much? Tons of immediate cuts that can be made that more than make up for it.

Cut Vance Mcdonald $4.6 million
Cut Mike Mitchell $8.1 million
Cut JJ Wilcox (post June 1st) $3.1 million

Ramon Foster and William Gay are possible iron man cuts ($4.4 million in savings) because of the promising talent behind them (BJ Finney and Mike Hilton). Not sure I would advocate for dropping Foster but I think Gay leaving will be fine.

How did you get a $20 million possible overage figure to start 2018? We could just sign Bell to something thats friendlier in the earlier seasons so that we can absorb the cap hit cant we? Here we have negative $2.6 million to start the 2018 offseason. Making the cuts I suggested we would clear $20.2 million in cap room without any devastating roster losses. I would say Foster would honestly be the biggest loss here and thats pretty good all things considered since we have his heir apparent already (BJ Finney)

We have Shazier and Bell up for major contracts and it looks like thats about it. Sign them to short term friendly contracts and kick money down the road right around when Ben's done since we'll be screwed then anyways. Gilbert maaaaybe might be up for a contract, but he's been injured a few times the past 2 seasons plus the Steelers dont negotiate non-QB contracts with more than a year left so I think he's just going to have to be stuck here. All things considered I dont think our 2018 salary cap is that bad

[teegre]

I hope you're right on Haden! :pray: The big passing plays against us really exploded right after Haden went down. It's more than a coincidence.

I agree.

I texted my brother the following:
“After allowing just one 50+ yard passing TD through the first 8 games, the Steelers have allowed FIVE passing TDs of 50+ yards over last 3 games. All five of those TDs have come since Joe Haden broke his fibula.”

My brother texted back:
“Correlation, not causation.”

While my brother is correct from a “logic 101” point of view, I’d say it’s about as close to a “cause” as one can find in sports.

[Mojouw]

Mitchell stays with his $8 million dollar cap hit but Haden is gone because of his $12 million dollar cap hit? That sounds like an awful move. Haden finally solidifies this secondary and we shouldnt be messing with that. Mitchell needs to go ASAP. He's expendable at half his cap hit. His best plays are nothing more than routine assignment football. His bad plays are just too numerous especially when we play cover 2. For such a pseudo-notorious big hitting safety, few receivers seem to fear him. I have no doubt that Mitchell would be a pretty good safety in the pre-2009 era of football but thats just not the case anymore.

2018 starters: Joe Haden and Artie Burns (last chance at this Artie)/Cam Sutton on the outside, Mike Hilton in the slot. Sensabaugh/Allen/some small time free agent CB in for dime packages


The safety free agency market doesnt look good overall, but Eric Reid would be a great signing if we decided to make another bold push. His market could perhaps be under the radar because his team/defense is having a terrible season? Pure speculation. He's played extensively at FS and SS, even moved into packages as a linebacker because of the 49ers desire to put their best men on the field. Smart savvy player, and was a pro bowler as a rookie. He could be a plug and play safety for us.

Haden's $11.9 million hit is too much? Tons of immediate cuts that can be made that more than make up for it.

Cut Vance Mcdonald $4.6 million
Cut Mike Mitchell $8.1 million
Cut JJ Wilcox (post June 1st) $3.1 million

Ramon Foster and William Gay are possible iron man cuts ($4.4 million in savings) because of the promising talent behind them (BJ Finney and Mike Hilton). Not sure I would advocate for dropping Foster but I think Gay leaving will be fine.

How did you get a $20 million possible overage figure to start 2018? We could just sign Bell to something thats friendlier in the earlier seasons so that we can absorb the cap hit cant we? Here we have negative $2.6 million to start the 2018 offseason. Making the cuts I suggested we would clear $20.2 million in cap room without any devastating roster losses. I would say Foster would honestly be the biggest loss here and thats pretty good all things considered since we have his heir apparent already (BJ Finney)

We have Shazier and Bell up for major contracts and it looks like thats about it. Sign them to short term friendly contracts and kick money down the road right around when Ben's done since we'll be screwed then anyways. Gilbert maaaaybe might be up for a contract, but he's been injured a few times the past 2 seasons plus the Steelers dont negotiate non-QB contracts with more than a year left so I think he's just going to have to be stuck here. All things considered I dont think our 2018 salary cap is that bad

Details here: http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2017/11/02/steelers-2018-salary-cap-projections-suggest-tough-times-ahead/

Plus some of the depth that many are counting on are up for new contracts (Hubbard, Finney, Chickillo, Hilton, Boswell, Berry, Nix, Rogers -- to name the "key") guys. Play around on this site - https://overthecap.com/calculator/pittsburgh-steelers/. You have to start cutting money really quickly!

Might be hard pressed to cut Foster and pay his replacement less as $3 million or so is about the going rate for a starting guard in the NFL. Hopefully with Finney being a ERFA guy the team has a great deal of control over that contract.

Long story short, they have 41 contracts currently against the 2018 cap. That leaves them 10 guys short of the 51 needed for the "final" cap calculation. They are 2 million over the cap and still they need to sign 10 guys to start the league year, fit in a draft class, sign Leveon Bell, re-up about 4-6 key ERFA and RFA guys, and leave the 2-3 million in season contingency they typically operate with.

There is your 20 million in savings from the cuts you listed above plus about 5 million or so in spare change.

So the Steelers are likely going to be needing cap room. The best place to get it is the cuts you have listed plus Haden and Mitchell. Mitchell saves you 6 million against the cap in 2018 with no clear successor. Haden saves you 10 million against the cap with successors in place (Sutton and Allen).

I was not arguing that Haden wasn't a better player than Mitchell or that one was worth X and the other was worth Y etc. Just that if you want to keep Bell, maintain a deep o-line, and add to the LB group, something has to give somewhere.

Plus in the scenarios we are discussing, a team with SB aspirations would be hoping for SB contender level contributions from a rookie TE, a rookie safety (if Mitchell is cut) and needing the draft class to also provide OL depth, OLB depth, restock the cupboard at CB, and likely a WR or two. Oh, plus a 3rd running back.

[teegre]

@PsychoWard I agree that I’d rather keep Haden for $12 million than Mitchell for $8 million.

@Craic Good points. Keep Hilton as the slot corner. :nod:

[st33lersguy]

It's important that they try to find a way to keep Haden, he's been too valuable for the defense. Also safety has to be considered a high priority in the upcoming offseason.

[teegre]

It's important that they try to find a way to keep Haden, he's been too valuable for the defense. Also safety has to be considered a high priority in the upcoming offseason.

Homer pick... cough, cough... Jordan Whitehead.

[pczach]

If I had to pick between keeping Haden or Mitchell, I'd take Haden all day long.

Mitchell is still slightly underrated by Steelers fans. He is not the best pure cover guy or ball hawk that you are going to find, but he is a leader and a good communicator in that secondary. I just think that Haden has shown that he is more of a difference maker than Mitchell has.

They need to find a way to make it happen.

[st33lersguy]

The difference in effectiveness between Haden and Mitchell is more than $4 million, and to me spending $4 million to keep Haden instead of Mitchell is fairly cheap. Haden has been a difference maker this year, Mitchell meanwhile gets exposed by every top tier QB/passing offense he faces and his signature move continues to be hitting the ball carrier and hoping he goes down

[Mojouw]

The safety free agency market doesnt look good overall, but Eric Reid would be a great signing if we decided to make another bold push. His market could perhaps be under the radar because his team/defense is having a terrible season? Pure speculation. He's played extensively at FS and SS, even moved into packages as a linebacker because of the 49ers desire to put their best men on the field. Smart savvy player, and was a pro bowler as a rookie. He could be a plug and play safety for us.

I just put it together that Eric Reid is also a big component of the protest issue and heavily involved in social justice discussions in the NFL. Made the news again today for it.

I can't wait for Mitchell to be swapped out for this guy! I really really want this to happen now - it might explode the internet! Imagine the game-day threads and post-game analysis as it just devolves into a shouting match.

In all seriousness, I don't know much about Reid the player, but he seems to be a heck of an athlete that for some reason, SF keep jerking around. Anyone know what he is like in coverages?

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Cut Vance Mcdonald $4.6 million
Cut Mike Mitchell $8.1 million
Cut JJ Wilcox (post June 1st) $3.1 million



I like all this. Add in moving on from Gay, Moats and probably Deebo and there is enough cap room for a guy like Reid at FS or draft a FS.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I just put it together that Eric Reid is also a big component of the protest issue and heavily involved in social justice discussions in the NFL. Made the news again today for it.

I can't wait for Mitchell to be swapped out for this guy! I really really want this to happen now - it might explode the internet! Imagine the game-day threads and post-game analysis as it just devolves into a shouting match.

In all seriousness, I don't know much about Reid the player, but he seems to be a heck of an athlete that for some reason, SF keep jerking around. Anyone know what he is like in coverages?


Thats fine. I feel like playing for a team in arguably the most liberal part of the country had emboldened him to speak up about it. For all the crap Tomlin gets about disciplinary problems, I think he handled the kneeling stuff as best as a team can (Remember that a lot of players on the team wanted to do the kneeling, a lot didnt, but you dont hear any internal whining about it between players at all). Maybe even that in itself will keep his market quieter too? Purely speculating.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Details here: http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2017/11/02/steelers-2018-salary-cap-projections-suggest-tough-times-ahead/

Plus some of the depth that many are counting on are up for new contracts (Hubbard, Finney, Chickillo, Hilton, Boswell, Berry, Nix, Rogers -- to name the "key") guys. Play around on this site - https://overthecap.com/calculator/pittsburgh-steelers/. You have to start cutting money really quickly!

Might be hard pressed to cut Foster and pay his replacement less as $3 million or so is about the going rate for a starting guard in the NFL. Hopefully with Finney being a ERFA guy the team has a great deal of control over that contract.

Long story short, they have 41 contracts currently against the 2018 cap. That leaves them 10 guys short of the 51 needed for the "final" cap calculation. They are 2 million over the cap and still they need to sign 10 guys to start the league year, fit in a draft class, sign Leveon Bell, re-up about 4-6 key ERFA and RFA guys, and leave the 2-3 million in season contingency they typically operate with.

There is your 20 million in savings from the cuts you listed above plus about 5 million or so in spare change.

So the Steelers are likely going to be needing cap room. The best place to get it is the cuts you have listed plus Haden and Mitchell. Mitchell saves you 6 million against the cap in 2018 with no clear successor. Haden saves you 10 million against the cap with successors in place (Sutton and Allen).

I was not arguing that Haden wasn't a better player than Mitchell or that one was worth X and the other was worth Y etc. Just that if you want to keep Bell, maintain a deep o-line, and add to the LB group, something has to give somewhere.

Plus in the scenarios we are discussing, a team with SB aspirations would be hoping for SB contender level contributions from a rookie TE, a rookie safety (if Mitchell is cut) and needing the draft class to also provide OL depth, OLB depth, restock the cupboard at CB, and likely a WR or two. Oh, plus a 3rd running back.


As far as the depth players go, im gonna walk before i run on thinking about that one. As far as SB aspirations with contributions from rookies, isnt that what we've been doing the past 2 seasons anyways? Burns, Davis, and Hargrave last season. Watt and Juju this season. Even going back to 2014 (i know im reaching here but we were in the playoffs so) Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt to a lesser degree. We've been doing a good job drafting players with immense upside but still good enough to make immediate impact.

[Mojouw]

As far as the depth players go, im gonna walk before i run on thinking about that one. As far as SB aspirations with contributions from rookies, isnt that what we've been doing the past 2 seasons anyways? Burns, Davis, and Hargrave last season. Watt and Juju this season. Even going back to 2014 (i know im reaching here but we were in the playoffs so) Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt to a lesser degree. We've been doing a good job drafting players with immense upside but still good enough to make immediate impact.

That's a good point. I just remain pessimistic at all times when it comes to cap dollars. I also, despite the recent positive evidence, do not like counting on rookies for major contributions - especially at FS, the QB of the secondary.

I really hope you are right and I am wrong on this. Your roster is a more talented one than mine!

[Psycho Ward 86]

That's a good point. I just remain pessimistic at all times when it comes to cap dollars. I also, despite the recent positive evidence, do not like counting on rookies for major contributions - especially at FS, the QB of the secondary.

I really hope you are right and I am wrong on this. Your roster is a more talented one than mine!

Theres a lot of impressive cerebral safeties muddled around the late 1st round-early 2nd round range that look to be plug and play imo. Im eyeballing Marcus Allen really hard but teegre's draft crushes always seem to fly under the radar and blossom into something else in the NFL. Tells you how much I hate Mike Mitchell when I look at safety prospects months before I normally do

[hawaiiansteeler]

Drafting of a safety is a big issue. This got talked about in the Sutton IR thread, but looking at the last several years of the draft at the safety position, you do NOT get a year one starter for a playoff caliber team outside of the top 15 picks. You do not get an impact year one starter outside of the top 25.

the NYG drafted Landon Collins in Round 2 with the 33rd overall pick of the 2015 draft so I would gladly take a player/safety like him with the 32nd pick of the 2018 draft :crossed:

[Mojouw]

the NYG drafted Landon Collins in Round 2 with the 33rd overall pick of the 2015 draft so I would gladly take a player/safety like him with the 32nd pick of the 2018 draft :crossed:

I would too. But it needs to be acknowledged that Collins was not very good his rookie year and was often victimized in the passing game. I’m not arguing that you can’t draft in the first two rounds and eventually improve on Mitchell. I’m arguing that outside of a specific range of picks, Mitchell is the better 2018 option until the pick can take over in 2019.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SteelerFanInStl]

Whatever we do, we need to keep Haden.

[El-Gonzo Jackson]

Any word on if Justin Reid from Stanford is entering the draft this year? (brother of Eric Reid)

[86WARD]

I’d give up the whole secondary for the next three seasons for a Super Bowl win this year.

[steelreserve]

If we let go of Mitchell, would a safety lineup of Davis-Wilcox-Golden-Rookie/FA work? (assuming Davis can play either position)

To save money, I can see them restructuring Heyward or Tuitt, two guys who have $12M+ cap hits and will be here for the duration of their contracts. Replacing Gay with a rookie would save close to $2M. Shazier will need to sign a new deal that will probably be backloaded. McDonald is not available enough to justify $4.6M, so that probably comes down or goes away entirely. Landry Jones can go. We need to keep Haden above all else in the defensive backfield and there are several ways to do it.

I really think this could be the year we try to draft a QB for real; things are all lining up for it. So with that in mind, I think we are less likely to draft a safety high to replace Mitchell than to make do in other ways.

[Mojouw]

My argument in a nutshell is that a rookie needs drafted in 2018 - but starting said rookie would most likelybe a noticeable downgrade in performance based on recent rookie safety trends. By 2019 - that rookie should be ready to play and play at a high level, assuming they drafted the right guy and not Shamarko Thomas 2.0.

For instance, Landon Collins, Haha Clinton-Dix and most of this year's much hyped safety class all struggled their rookie years. So, most likely, Mitchell and Haden both need paid in 2018.

[hawaiiansteeler]

My argument in a nutshell is that a rookie needs drafted in 2018 - but starting said rookie would most likelybe a noticeable downgrade in performance based on recent rookie safety trends. By 2019 - that rookie should be ready to play and play at a high level, assuming they drafted the right guy and not Shamarko Thomas 2.0.

For instance, Landon Collins, Haha Clinton-Dix and most of this year's much hyped safety class all struggled their rookie years. So, most likely, Mitchell and Haden both need paid in 2018.

I agree 100%, and I would like that safety drafted early this year by the Steelers so that grooming process can begin.

[steelreserve]

My argument in a nutshell is that a rookie needs drafted in 2018 - but starting said rookie would most likelybe a noticeable downgrade in performance based on recent rookie safety trends. By 2019 - that rookie should be ready to play and play at a high level, assuming they drafted the right guy and not Shamarko Thomas 2.0.

For instance, Landon Collins, Haha Clinton-Dix and most of this year's much hyped safety class all struggled their rookie years. So, most likely, Mitchell and Haden both need paid in 2018.

What about Wilcox, didn't he fill in well for Mitchell earlier in the year? Not suggesting he's the next up-and-coming star of the secondary, but he seemed like he would be adequate as a low-priced filler for a year or two while we got someone else ready. Is there something wrong with him that I don't know about?

In any case, Mitchell's contract seems to be the elephant in the room and therefore the most likely target. Unless they really go all-out with yolo restructuring to keep Ben's "window" open and accept that we are going to eat shit HARD afterward. Hopefully he just wins a championship this year and if he's going to retire, he retires and we can get it all sorted out.

[Mojouw]

What about Wilcox, didn't he fill in well for Mitchell earlier in the year? Not suggesting he's the next up-and-coming star of the secondary, but he seemed like he would be adequate as a low-priced filler for a year or two while we got someone else ready. Is there something wrong with him that I don't know about?

In any case, Mitchell's contract seems to be the elephant in the room and therefore the most likely target. Unless they really go all-out with yolo restructuring to keep Ben's "window" open and accept that we are going to eat shit HARD afterward. Hopefully he just wins a championship this year and if he's going to retire, he retires and we can get it all sorted out.

Wilcox is a SS? I actually don't really know, but despite the fact that they traded for him, he has been seemingly passed by Golden on the depth chart. I assume that means that Mitchell>Golden>Wilcox. So if we are trying to improve from Mitchell AND save money -- not sure Wilcox does much.

This http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/mike-mitchell-5895/ says that dumping Mitchell saves $6,371,668 from the 2018 cap. The same site further says that Wilcox saves the team $3,125,000 in 2018 cap money. For 3 million and change, I would rather pay the guy who can play average at worst starter level than pay a guy who can't beat Robert Golden onto the field?

Unless they consider moving Davis to FS and Wilcox plays SS -- that may be something...I really don't know. But I do think that they are in a position where for a variety of reasons, Mike Mitchell plays FS for the 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers.

[steelreserve]

Good point. I thought Wilcox had been playing well at the start of the year and Golden must have been on the field for some other reason. But if he just isn't that good, then that's a problem. We have to do better than Golden or equivalent.

I'm assuming Davis can play either position if we need him to, which would open our options up quite a bit.

Wouldn't be opposed to taking a safety with our second pick (if we draft a QB) and working him in gradually over the year. Or if we don't draft a QB, I'd say the need there definitely is enough to consider using a #1.

I just don't see us both doing that AND keeping Mitchell unless we really play the funny money hard. Which is not out of the realm of possibility to be honest.

[BlackAndGold]

No way do I see Mitchell getting cut. Still a good safety when healthy, has been banged up this year.

Also, didn't Tampa retain a percentage of Wilcox salary?

[Psycho Ward 86]

No way do I see Mitchell getting cut. Still a good safety when healthy, has been banged up this year.

Also, didn't Tampa retain a percentage of Wilcox salary?

i dont understand this sentiment. even the most insistent Mitchell supporters dont seem to give him a compliment above him being an above average player. Is that worth an $8 million dollar cap hit to you? I need a lot more for an investment that expensive. We go into games against borderline top 10 QB's pretty much knowing Mitchell is going to haplessly hit stick receivers after they catch a 20 yard pass. If were going to let that fly, id rather be thrifty about it

[teegre]

Theres a lot of impressive cerebral safeties muddled around the late 1st round-early 2nd round range that look to be plug and play imo. Im eyeballing Marcus Allen really hard but teegre's draft crushes always seem to fly under the radar and blossom into something else in the NFL. Tells you how much I hate Mike Mitchell when I look at safety prospects months before I normally do

You aren’t too shabby yourself, man. You nailed the Budda Baker pick. :nod:

[teegre]

the NYG drafted Landon Collins in Round 2 with the 33rd overall pick of the 2015 draft so I would gladly take a player/safety like him with the 32nd pick of the 2018 draft :crossed:

Which brings up this again:

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/they-might-be-giants-but-could-have-been-steelers/

I’d trade Golden & Coates for Collins 1000 times out of 1000.

[teegre]

Any word on if Justin Reid from Stanford is entering the draft this year? (brother of Eric Reid)

I haven’t heard yet. But, he’s like Sean Davis in the fact that he can play FS or SS. That type of flexibility with both of your safeties should make any DC drool.

But, we’d have to take him at 32, because he won’t last much longer than that.


[NOTE: A poor man’s version of Reid is Kyzer White. But, if I’m taking a safety in a later round, it’s Whitehead.]

[BlackAndGold]

i dont understand this sentiment. even the most insistent Mitchell supporters dont seem to give him a compliment above him being an above average player. Is that worth an $8 million dollar cap hit to you? I need a lot more for an investment that expensive. We go into games against borderline top 10 QB's pretty much knowing Mitchell is going to haplessly hit stick receivers after they catch a 20 yard pass. If were going to let that fly, id rather be thrifty about it

Mitchell has been an above average safety this year due to dealing with an achilles, and ankle injury.

Idk how Mitchell still has haters after the year he had last year covering up mistakes by horrible secondary teammates. Should have been a pro bowler.

Whom are you going to replace Mitchell with? who btw is also a leader on defense...

Healthy MM:
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/06/film-room-mike-mitchells-hard-hitting-impact/
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/12/film-room-mike-mitchell-lifeline-last-line-defense/
Watch the Colts game last year, doubt we win without him.
Watch him save Burns last year in the game against the Ravens last year that won the AFC North.

Jon Ledyard has some MM breakdowns also but behind a paywall, booooo


MM isn't perfect, but he is the glue holding the secondary together.

[Mojouw]

i dont understand this sentiment. even the most insistent Mitchell supporters dont seem to give him a compliment above him being an above average player. Is that worth an $8 million dollar cap hit to you? I need a lot more for an investment that expensive. We go into games against borderline top 10 QB's pretty much knowing Mitchell is going to haplessly hit stick receivers after they catch a 20 yard pass. If were going to let that fly, id rather be thrifty about it

It isn't that simple.

Cut Mitchell prior to the start of 2018 regular season and the Steelers save $6.3 million as a portion of his money counts on the cap no matter what. OK. Fine, valid and reasonable arguments can be made that FS needs an upgrade. So who starts in 2018?

I would argue the following:
1. Not Wilcox because the team seems to only view him as a SS and he has been passed by Golden in the 2017 sub-packages and injury replacement pecking order.

2. Not Robert Golden for so many reasons. The biggest being that he is simply below average in coverage. Multiple games and stretches of play have repeatedly demonstrated this.

3. Not a rookie FS. I have attempted to outline this earlier. But look at Landon Collins as a great example. His rookie year was not good and many were advocating that he should be moved to LB as he struggled mightily in coverage. In his second year he broke out as a true star in the league. Clinton-Dix is another example - he took a season or two to impact in a big way. Tony Jefferson took several seasons to become an effective NFL safety. Even Troy Polamalu looked more than a little lost in coverage his rookie year. Except for a handful of guys (typically drafted in the top 15 picks of Round 1) rookie FS provide below league average play.

4. The FA market is not good. Maybe Eric Reid. But at what cost? Additionally his "best" position is likely SS, so that means moving Davis to FS. As I have said earlier that could potentially be a great idea, but it is not cost certain and not an assured improvement.

For those reasons, I would advocate that the Steelers take a safety in the top 3 rounds and hope they can work a plan similar to someone like Kevin Byard of the Titans (plays a bit his rookie year and locks down a starting job in year two as an impact ball-hawk). That means someone has to play the position in 2018 and for the reasons that BlackandGold (hat tip) has provided in this thread and elsewhere, the best version for 2018 of that someone is Mike Mitchell.

Think of him as that old reliable car that you know you should replace. But it has no trade-in value, you don't have the down payment for a new one, and even though it is starting to rack up repair bills, it is still worth more to you rolling on the road than just tossing it to the scrap yard.

[teegre]

It isn't that simple.

Cut Mitchell prior to the start of 2018 regular season and the Steelers save $6.3 million as a portion of his money counts on the cap no matter what. OK. Fine, valid and reasonable arguments can be made that FS needs an upgrade. So who starts in 2018?

I would argue the following:
1. Not Wilcox because the team seems to only view him as a SS and he has been passed by Golden in the 2017 sub-packages and injury replacement pecking order.

2. Not Robert Golden for so many reasons. The biggest being that he is simply below average in coverage. Multiple games and stretches of play have repeatedly demonstrated this.

3. Not a rookie FS. I have attempted to outline this earlier. But look at Landon Collins as a great example. His rookie year was not good and many were advocating that he should be moved to LB as he struggled mightily in coverage. In his second year he broke out as a true star in the league. Clinton-Dix is another example - he took a season or two to impact in a big way. Tony Jefferson took several seasons to become an effective NFL safety. Even Troy Polamalu looked more than a little lost in coverage his rookie year. Except for a handful of guys (typically drafted in the top 15 picks of Round 1) rookie FS provide below league average play.

4. The FA market is not good. Maybe Eric Reid. But at what cost? Additionally his "best" position is likely SS, so that means moving Davis to FS. As I have said earlier that could potentially be a great idea, but it is not cost certain and not an assured improvement.

For those reasons, I would advocate that the Steelers take a safety in the top 3 rounds and hope they can work a plan similar to someone like Kevin Byard of the Titans (plays a bit his rookie year and locks down a starting job in year two as an impact ball-hawk). That means someone has to play the position in 2018 and for the reasons that BlackandGold (hat tip) has provided in this thread and elsewhere, the best version for 2018 of that someone is Mike Mitchell.

Think of him as that old reliable car that you know you should replace. But it has no trade-in value, you don't have the down payment for a new one, and even though it is starting to rack up repair bills, it is still worth more to you rolling on the road than just tossing it to the scrap yard.

Alas, you are correct.

As I have posted for awhile, while the Steelers may want to save money by cutting Mitchell, I see him staying 1 more season (while his replacement is drafted in April). Plus, he is a rock-solid lockerroom guy... and a team leader. There’s a reason that he was one of the players who went to the podium the week leading up to the last AFCCG.

Then again...

Replace Mitchell with a rookie/young player VERSUS replacing Haden with a rookie/young player. IMO, the drop off from Mitchell to FSnew is far less than the drop off between Haden and CBnew. Sure, I’m a huge believer in Sutton, but he’s still young/inexperienced.

SUMMATION:
I see the front office pulling a 2011: re-signing everyone (at the expense of the 2019 and 2020 seasons). Simply, win NOW!!!... and worry about the aftermath later.

[Born2Steel]

The secondary is finally starting to gel. IF...Burns can improve his zone cover I.Q., maybe he slides into a FS role(No, not pushing the move, just a thought) . Sutton, is the x-factor since we don't truly know him. From what we do know, he CAN move to the outside opposite Haden. Haden is the missing link of quality player with experience and on field leadership. Davis can do it all when asked and has proven his potential. IMO, Mitchell is expendable if it means the difference between Haden or no Haden. I can't see taking the risk of dumping Mitchell only to replace him with a rookie in an already under-experienced secondary. He has more value on this team than that.

In an effort to upgrade our depth, we lucked upon Hilton. As I have said in other threads, all of these guys can play and all bring skills to the party. It's getting guys whose skills work together that builds a team. I think/feel this secondary is close to being VERY good. Rather than replace just trying to upgrade Mitchell, or one position, we need a solid skills safety that can upgrade depth, and maybe get another gem that fits in here, like we did with Hilton, at the same time. I am not against using the draft, I just don't think another rookie is the answer here.

[Mojouw]

Alas, you are correct.

As I have posted for awhile, while the Steelers may want to save money by cutting Mitchell, I see him staying 1 more season (while his replacement is drafted in April). Plus, he is a rock-solid lockerroom guy... and a team leader. There’s a reason that he was one of the players who went to the podium the week leading up to the last AFCCG.

Then again...

Replace Mitchell with a rookie/young player VERSUS replacing Haden with a rookie/young player. IMO, the drop off from Mitchell to FSnew is far less than the drop off between Haden and CBnew. Sure, I’m a huge believer in Sutton, but he’s still young/inexperienced.

SUMMATION:
I see the front office pulling a 2011: re-signing everyone (at the expense of the 2019 and 2020 seasons). Simply, win NOW!!!... and worry about the aftermath later.

That might be true. Anothe thing I hadn’t considered about Haden and Mitchell, is what does it say to the rest of the roster if those guys play well in the postseason and then get cut in the off-season?

[DesertSteel]

If Haden plays well again after he comes back there’s no way they let him go. As for Mitchell.... he’s not worth the $$. Cut him and sign someone for half the price.

[Mojouw]

If Haden plays well again after he comes back there’s no way they let him go. As for Mitchell.... he’s not worth the $$. Cut him and sign someone for half the price.

That's the thing. Looking around there is no option for 2018 at the FS position that is a "sure-thing" improvement over Mitchell for less than the roughly $6.1 million that is saved if he is cut.

FA options either cost twice that or are far worse players than Mitchell.

Draft options are likely a full year of development away from bettering Mitchell's level of play.

I really think he gets one more rodeo. Unless they switch Davis to FS and let someone like Wilcox just knock-heads at SS and punt on using the SS to cover TEs.

[Psycho Ward 86]

That's the thing. Looking around there is no option for 2018 at the FS position that is a "sure-thing" improvement over Mitchell for less than the roughly $6.1 million that is saved if he is cut.

FA options either cost twice that or are far worse players than Mitchell.

Draft options are likely a full year of development away from bettering Mitchell's level of play.

I really think he gets one more rodeo. Unless they switch Davis to FS and let someone like Wilcox just knock-heads at SS and punt on using the SS to cover TEs.

theres going to be 54 combined UFA, RFA, ERFA, and UDFA's at safety and not one of them is able to be at least close to Mitchell's level while being significantly cheaper? thats a tough sell for me, mitchell just isnt very good. a free safety that consistently tries to jar the ball loose upon arrival instead of playing the ball itself in today's era is inherently problematic. If Mitchell was the player he is today and playing by the rules before 2009, I think he would be a pretty coveted player. But his style just isnt suited for today's game

[Mojouw]

theres going to be 54 combined UFA, RFA, ERFA, and UDFA's at safety and not one of them is able to be at least close to Mitchell's level while being significantly cheaper? thats a tough sell for me, mitchell just isnt very good. a free safety that consistently tries to jar the ball loose upon arrival instead of playing the ball itself in today's era is inherently problematic. If Mitchell was the player he is today and playing by the rules before 2009, I think he would be a pretty coveted player. But his style just isnt suited for today's game

I mean you can read the same lists I'm using. My bar is that Mitchell is league average at worst at FS. So say about #14-18 in the league out of 32 starters at the position.

Go look at your list and find 3-4 guys that cost less than 6 million per year, can learn the defense in one off-season cycle, doesn't require a draft pick compensation (ERFA and some RFA guys).

Most of the guys I can remember on that list are SS by trade, most "name guys" cost more than $6 million dollars, many are coming off their 3rd NFL contract and trending down in their level of play, most others are guys that can't start currently on worse secondaries, and/or some combination of all of these things.

Sure, every year their is a "Tre Boston" type signing where no one expected much out of the signing, but it works out and the player performs well above expectations. But, again, I am looking at the anticipated lists of unrestricted FAs, and outside of a few guys that the Steelers won't be able to afford (10 million + salaries) I don't see anyone, where I'm like "Yup. That guy. That guy is definitively superior to Mike Mitchell and will cost me $3 million dollars or less in 2018."

It is totally possible that I am not well versed in the players on the lists I am seeing or am I being stubborn. But everyone keeps telling me there is this seemingly magical player who can come in and provide better than average FS play and cost less than $6 million dollars against the cap (the amount the Steelers save by cutting Mitchell). But yet no one seems able to name this player. Why is that?

As I have previously stated, Eric Reid is an intriguing and worthwhile possibility. I have also mentioned that the Steelers have expressed intrest in Tre Boston as recently as the past off-season. It is a serious possibility that both of those guys cost more than $6 million. Or it is totally possible that both can be had for like $4 million per.

Again, my argument isn't a defense of Mitchell so much as a "Meh" for most of the possibilities outside of draft and develop.

[pczach]

I mean you can read the same lists I'm using. My bar is that Mitchell is league average at worst at FS. So say about #14-18 in the league out of 32 starters at the position.

Go look at your list and find 3-4 guys that cost less than 6 million per year, can learn the defense in one off-season cycle, doesn't require a draft pick compensation (ERFA and some RFA guys).

Most of the guys I can remember on that list are SS by trade, most "name guys" cost more than $6 million dollars, many are coming off their 3rd NFL contract and trending down in their level of play, most others are guys that can't start currently on worse secondaries, and/or some combination of all of these things.

Sure, every year their is a "Tre Boston" type signing where no one expected much out of the signing, but it works out and the player performs well above expectations. But, again, I am looking at the anticipated lists of unrestricted FAs, and outside of a few guys that the Steelers won't be able to afford (10 million + salaries) I don't see anyone, where I'm like "Yup. That guy. That guy is definitively superior to Mike Mitchell and will cost me $3 million dollars or less in 2018."

It is totally possible that I am not well versed in the players on the lists I am seeing or am I being stubborn. But everyone keeps telling me there is this seemingly magical player who can come in and provide better than average FS play and cost less than $6 million dollars against the cap (the amount the Steelers save by cutting Mitchell). But yet no one seems able to name this player. Why is that?

As I have previously stated, Eric Reid is an intriguing and worthwhile possibility. I have also mentioned that the Steelers have expressed intrest in Tre Boston as recently as the past off-season. It is a serious possibility that both of those guys cost more than $6 million. Or it is totally possible that both can be had for like $4 million per.

Again, my argument isn't a defense of Mitchell so much as a "Meh" for most of the possibilities outside of draft and develop.




Good points.

It's always possible in theory.

Making that theory reality is always much more difficult.

Is Mitchell the player that is the ultimate at his position? No.

Is Mitchell still a proven commodity that is performing at a reasonable level for his money in NFL terms? Absolutely.

The ideal scenario is that the team is able to draft a player that has the instincts, mental acuity, and ball skills to learn an NFL defense very quickly and perform at a very high level instantly.

The next best thing is to find a young NFL player that was playing in a system that didn't fit his skill set which limited his productivity. Sign him as a FA or trade for him and lock him up at a great price.

Those are the only options for finding a very good player at a reasonable rate. Any existing, productive safety is going to demand at least as much as Mitchell in free agency. Those that are playing at a high level for little money are not going to be able to be acquired from other teams. Why would they give up a very good safety making $3 mil a year? That team would then be in the same situation of trying to replace a good player on the roster that wasn't making much money. You can only accomplish that if you overpay in draft picks for that player in a trade.

Can it happen? Maybe....but not likely at all.