Steelers 2017 - 10,000 Foot View

[GBMelBlount]

The big picture for me is:

3-1

First Place in our division after 4 games.

Handled our arch divisional rival well today.

Improving every week on offense (Bell, Ben, Bryant better acclimating each game)

Improving every week on defense (Young, talented, learning)

Opinion:

1. It is likely we will continue improving every week (except against crappy teams) and barring major injuries,

2. It is possible we could have home field advantage if / when we meet the Patriots this year as they appear human? (I know, a game at a time and early.)

Your thoughts?

[Bluecoat96]

I agree. I don't think they've come close to peaking. My biggest concern at the moment is Ben. I hope he's just working out of a funk. Only time will tell.

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[polamalubeast]

The problem with Ben right now is his deep ball ... I do not remember seeing Roethlisberger being bad with the deep ball like that.The deep ball missed to Bryant today was awful.I hope he will be better on that.

Our run defense needs to be better and the penalties killer drive on offense as well.

We will see in a few weeks if our pass defense is solid, but at the moment it is a good start.

[GBMelBlount]

I think Ben will be firing on all cylinders by mid season.

[teegre]

Once the defense offense gels, they'll score 30 on ANYBODY.

The defense should get better every week. They are yoooung.

1st year: Watt
2nd year: Davis, Burns, Hargrave, Hilton
3rd year: Dupree, Walton, Chickillo
4th year: Shazier, Tuitt

[Count Steeler]

Like I posted elsewhere, preseason 2.0 is over. Now I think the team really starts to gel. Took Bell 4 games to get it going. Ben needs to start having fun again. TJ Watt is a difference maker. Hope Tuitt is back soon.

[polamalubeast]

Only 4 teams in the AFC have a winning record after 4 games(Chiefs,Broncos,Bills and Steelers)

[EzraTank]

The biggest test will be on the road in two weeks against the Chiefs. They are playing great, have a legit stud rookie RB (probably the best RB in the league right now) and if they win tonight will be the only undefeated team left in the league. If we are a legit contender then will will finally win a game on the road against a great opponent.

I just hope our loss to the crappy Bears doesn't come back to haunt us at the end of the year. At least it was against an NFC opponent.

The Pats will always be the Pats. I personally would rather see them get beat by someone else in the playoffs (someone like KC) because the Pats have come into Heinz and won in the playoffs with ease as well. They are our Kryptonite.

BTW Tuitt was back yesterday. :)

[AtlantaDan]

At the start of the season I had the Steelers at 3-1 after 4 weeks with the loss to the Ravens (I had no clue how bad the Ravens are) so Steelers are on track for me - an out of conference loss is far better than a division loss

The Steelers still have not played a decent QB (Joe Flacco is not elite) and the offense is still choppy (with the most inconsistent player being the QB)

But the AFC is up for grabs - the Pats rallied after a week 4 loss to the Chiefs (bench Brady!) when they won the Super Bowl three seasons ago but this has a different vibe for me - as Ezra Tank posted above, the Pats are the Steelers kryptonite so that is the most positive development so far

Big test in KC in 2 weeks

[steel striker]

I'll take 3-1 and, a top of the division as well we know with the Steelers it will never be perfect. Look the Steelers look like the best team in the North and, the cheats are have defensive issues all in things are good for us! Chiefs will be a tough game after the Jags.

[teegre]

But the AFC is up for grabs - the Pats rallied after a week 4 loss to the Chiefs (bench Brady!) when they won the Super Bowl three seasons ago but this has a different vibe for me - as Ezra Tank posted above, the Pats are the Steelers kryptonite so that is the most positive development so far

I'm rooting for the Bills every week... so that they win their division (dropping the Taperiots down to a Wild Card).

[teegre]

Not that it means much with 12 regular season games to go, but...

PLAYOFF SEEDS:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills

6. Raidahs @ 3. Steelers
5. Broncos @ 4. Jaguars

10. Taperiots

[tube517]

Once the defense offense gels, they'll score 30 on ANYBODY.

The defense should get better every week. They are yoooung.

1st year: Watt
2nd year: Davis, Burns, Hargrave, Hilton
3rd year: Dupree, Walton, Chickillo
4th year: Shazier, Tuitt7 of 11 starters under age 24.

Heyward and Haden are only 28.

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[teegre]

7 of 11 starters under age 24.

Heyward and Haden are only 28.

:nod:

This defense is primed to become the next great Steelers defense.

[86WARD]

Not that it means much with 12 regular season games to go, but...

PLAYOFF SEEDS:

1. Chiefs
2. Bills

6. Raidahs @ 3. Steelers
5. Broncos @ 4. Jaguars

10. Taperiots

I’d be fine with it ending like that...lol

[GBMelBlount]

:nod:

This defense is primed to become the next great Steelers defense.

With our current trajectory on offense and defense, I think we can still be a contender when Ben retires.

[teegre]

With our current trajectory on offense and defense, I think we can still be a contender when Ben retires.

Yep.
Just two seasons ago, the Broncos won a SuperBowl without a QB.

[DesertSteel]

My only real concern for Ben is that he stays healthy. That has eluded him in recent years.

[Mojouw]

Yep.
Just two seasons ago, the Broncos won a SuperBowl without a QB.

Ok. Other than them, who has it been? That same Broncos team has squandered multiple seasons of an off-the-charts defense because they don't even have a competent QB.

Look at Dalton's tenure in Cincy. How much further do some of those rosters go if Dalton was better?

What about almost any of the Watt era Texans teams?

QBs not named Alex Smith beat the Steelers in the playoffs last year.

If you don't have a really good QB, your chances of making the playoffs year in and year out are not good. Going deep in the playoffs is pretty slim. Winning a SB is like threading the eye of needle in a hurricane. Sure it can be done, but EVERYTHING has to break your way.

This team will struggle to be a SB contender from the moment Ben announces his retirement until they find the next "franchise" guy.

[Born2Steel]

Ok. Other than them, who has it been? That same Broncos team has squandered multiple seasons of an off-the-charts defense because they don't even have a competent QB.

Look at Dalton's tenure in Cincy. How much further do some of those rosters go if Dalton was better?

What about almost any of the Watt era Texans teams?

QBs not named Alex Smith beat the Steelers in the playoffs last year.

If you don't have a really good QB, your chances of making the playoffs year in and year out are not good. Going deep in the playoffs is pretty slim. Winning a SB is like threading the eye of needle in a hurricane. Sure it can be done, but EVERYTHING has to break your way.

This team will struggle to be a SB contender from the moment Ben announces his retirement until they find the next "franchise" guy.

I agree with this point. However, there was a SB not too long ago that had Kap vs Flacco. Neither one is good enough to be in my personal top 10. I get what you're saying, but I don't think we need to find our next BB to make that championship run again. A stingy defense and potent run game can accomplish a lot on that road. And with 'always open AB' and 'can't overthrow Bryant', a QB like Dobbs has a pretty good chance to lead here. Just my 2cents.

- - - Updated - - -

On sort of this same topic, is QB or ILB a bigger priority, from today, for the next draft, in your opinions? I want that compliment to Shazier, personally.

[polamalubeast]

I agree with this point. However, there was a SB not too long ago that had Kap vs Flacco. Neither one is good enough to be in my personal top 10. I get what you're saying, but I don't think we need to find our next BB to make that championship run again. A stingy defense and potent run game can accomplish a lot on that road. And with 'always open AB' and 'can't overthrow Bryant', a QB like Dobbs has a pretty good chance to lead here. Just my 2cents.




Kap and Flacco was great in the playoffs in 2012.

[Mojouw]

I agree with this point. However, there was a SB not too long ago that had Kap vs Flacco. Neither one is good enough to be in my personal top 10. I get what you're saying, but I don't think we need to find our next BB to make that championship run again. A stingy defense and potent run game can accomplish a lot on that road. And with 'always open AB' and 'can't overthrow Bryant', a QB like Dobbs has a pretty good chance to lead here. Just my 2cents.

Sure. I can see that. BUT....

Kaep played great in at least the SB. And Flacco had a post-season for the ages. Broke records and everything.

So to win, you still need your mediocre QB to get "hot" and help push the team over the hump in the playoffs. Kinda like when an average or slightly above average goaltender gets hot and plays like a Vezina trophy winner for the Cup playoffs.

There just aren't many "bad" QBs on this list. I realize that you can find a few, but going well back into NFL history, many of these guys are in the HOF. http://www.profootballhof.com/news/super-bowl-starting-qbs/

[polamalubeast]

But I agree that steelers can be good if Ben retire if we have a competent QB.

[Born2Steel]

Sure. I can see that. BUT....

Kaep played great in at least the SB. And Flacco had a post-season for the ages. Broke records and everything.

So to win, you still need your mediocre QB to get "hot" and help push the team over the hump in the playoffs. Kinda like when an average or slightly above average goaltender gets hot and plays like a Vezina trophy winner for the Cup playoffs.

There just aren't many "bad" QBs on this list. I realize that you can find a few, but going well back into NFL history, many of these guys are in the HOF. http://www.profootballhof.com/news/super-bowl-starting-qbs/

Right. I don't think we need the next franchise QB to make our run. With the defense, run game, elite WRs, and his ability to move, Dobbs has a real chance here.

[polamalubeast]

I do not think Dobbs is the answer for our next QB.

I would be very surprised.

[Born2Steel]

I do not think Dobbs is the answer for our next QB.

I would be very surprised.

He's definitely in the 'wait and see' file. I would rather have a big arm, mobile, accurate everywhere QB(Lynch), but all we currently have is Dobbs or Jones. So until that changes, I'm on the Dobbs bandwagon.

[Mojouw]

Right. I don't think we need the next franchise QB to make our run. With the defense, run game, elite WRs, and his ability to move, Dobbs has a real chance here.

I think we do. Because without a "franchise" guy you are basically rolling the dice on some league average guy getting hot at the right time. That is a recipe for wasting otherwise good rosters.

Say Dobbs can play like some kind of reverse Andy Dalton or Alex Smith - hits big plays and gets inaccurate on the shorter stuff. So a more mobile Eli Manning? Whatever it is, that is a middle of the road starting QB in the NFL. Take a look at how many deep playoff runs and SB those kind of Qbs get you. Eli has had a run every couple of years when he decided to stop over-throwing WRs and turning the ball over at the same time his defense played out of their minds.

Can that work? Obviously it has. But you are going to have to have a ton of things break your way. In contrast, having a great QB means that they can simply drag otherwise "meh" teams into the playoffs and beyond. Aaron Rodgers is a great example. Recent Packers rosters have not been that good outside of Rodgers. They are a SB threat every year.

[Born2Steel]

Just to make sure I'm clear....I would obviously rather have the next Ben when this one retires. Of course I do. I'm trying to look at the current NFL and see who would I trade Dobbs for to run this offense. A few pop into mind immediately. Wouldn't go for the guys in the same draft class as BB, same issues. Again, Dobbs is in the wait and see file for now. But I already see him as the better option over Jones.

[teegre]

Ok. Other than them, who has it been? That same Broncos team has squandered multiple seasons of an off-the-charts defense because they don't even have a competent QB.

Look at Dalton's tenure in Cincy. How much further do some of those rosters go if Dalton was better?

What about almost any of the Watt era Texans teams?

QBs not named Alex Smith beat the Steelers in the playoffs last year.

If you don't have a really good QB, your chances of making the playoffs year in and year out are not good. Going deep in the playoffs is pretty slim. Winning a SB is like threading the eye of needle in a hurricane. Sure it can be done, but EVERYTHING has to break your way.

This team will struggle to be a SB contender from the moment Ben announces his retirement until they find the next "franchise" guy.

Obviously, having a franchise QB is the easiest route.

But, I also don't think we are "doomed" once BB retires.

That said, I agree that everything has to line up perfectly... Let's assume that the defense is lights out. On the offensive side, with AB, Bell, and the best O-line in the league, a decent QB should be able to put up "good enough" numbers to make a championship run.

[DesertSteel]

Some of these 1-2 year QBs are proving that new guys are out there if we are scouting well.

[Mojouw]

Obviously, having a franchise QB is the easiest route.

But, I also don't think we are "doomed" once BB retires.

That said, I agree that everything has to line up perfectly... Let's assume that the defense is lights out. On the offensive side, with AB, Bell, and the best O-line in the league, a decent QB should be able to put up "good enough" numbers to make a championship run.

So unless we want to downgrade Eli Manning to "decent" QB (which I totally support) then what decent QB's are we talking about?

Flacco? Like I said, he went on a record setting run to win his lone SB and has looked team hurtingly not good since then. Kaep? His two playoff runs were more than average and involved him making numerous game altering plays.

Alex Smith or a player like him is who I feel everyone has in their heads when they say "decent" or "average" QB. But look at KC recently. Take the playoff game against the Steelers last season. If Smith could've completed a TD pass to a WR since sometime other than his second year in college, the Chiefs might have beaten the Steelers.

Look at the past 3-5 Bengals rosters. What has their weak link been? Before this season (since they decided that o line was not important), CB and QB. On an offense featuring a top 5 WR, a top 5 TE, a above average RB, and prior to this year good to pretty darn good o lines. Those teams scared no one come playoff time because Dalton can't beat you enough times to matter.

Look at the last several Texans squads. Great WR. Good TEs. Decent RBs. Lights out defense. I mean they took the Pats to the wall. Except their QB play wasn't good enough. How much better than Osweiler would it have had to been? I don't know but that team might've been a SB champion except for poor QB play. Same with Denver. If Seiman coul've been an actual playmaker, then that team might've won another championship.

I can see the attraction of your point, but I just do not see recent real-world examples of this "everything but the QB is above average" winning formula. I do see it working if you want to be basically one and done every season with maybe a "lucky" deep playoff run every third year or so. And that is best case. Worst case is you pick about 15th every damn year in the draft and tread water year in and year out. Kinda the Jeff Fisher level.

That's not for me. It all starts and ends with the QB. If you don't have one, I really don't care what else you got on your roster, overwhelming probability is that you are not winning a championship.

[Born2Steel]

You're not wrong.

[polamalubeast]

So unless we want to downgrade Eli Manning to "decent" QB (which I totally support) then what decent QB's are we talking about?

Flacco? Like I said, he went on a record setting run to win his lone SB and has looked team hurtingly not good since then. Kaep? His two playoff runs were more than average and involved him making numerous game altering plays.

Alex Smith or a player like him is who I feel everyone has in their heads when they say "decent" or "average" QB. But look at KC recently. Take the playoff game against the Steelers last season. If Smith could've completed a TD pass to a WR since sometime other than his second year in college, the Chiefs might have beaten the Steelers.

Look at the past 3-5 Bengals rosters. What has their weak link been? Before this season (since they decided that o line was not important), CB and QB. On an offense featuring a top 5 WR, a top 5 TE, a above average RB, and prior to this year good to pretty darn good o lines. Those teams scared no one come playoff time because Dalton can't beat you enough times to matter.

Look at the last several Texans squads. Great WR. Good TEs. Decent RBs. Lights out defense. I mean they took the Pats to the wall. Except their QB play wasn't good enough. How much better than Osweiler would it have had to been? I don't know but that team might've been a SB champion except for poor QB play. Same with Denver. If Seiman coul've been an actual playmaker, then that team might've won another championship.

I can see the attraction of your point, but I just do not see recent real-world examples of this "everything but the QB is above average" winning formula. I do see it working if you want to be basically one and done every season with maybe a "lucky" deep playoff run every third year or so. And that is best case. Worst case is you pick about 15th every damn year in the draft and tread water year in and year out. Kinda the Jeff Fisher level.

That's not for me. It all starts and ends with the QB. If you don't have one, I really don't care what else you got on your roster, overwhelming probability is that you are not winning a championship.

The Ravens were a super bowl contender from 2008 to 2012 with 3 afc title game and a win in the super bowl.

The Bengals have several problems.....Marvin Lewis is not a good HC,Dalton has often choked in big games and the bengals have no good leader in their locker room.

Of course, you have almost no chance of winning if your QB is bad as in the few last years with the Texans.It could change this year if Watson is the real deal.

[Mojouw]

The Ravens were a super bowl contender from 2008 to 2012 with 3 afc title game and a win in the super bowl.

The Bengals have several problems.....Marvin Lewis is not a good HC,Dalton has often choked in big games and the bengals have no good leader in their locker room.

Of course, you have almost no chance of winning if your QB is bad as in the few last years with the Texans.It could change this year if Watson is the real deal.

Fair enough. But how many of those AFC championship games were won or lost by the QB making a play or not making a play? Almost every single one had that as a significant story line. What about Ravens playoff losses to Steelers in other rounds where Ben made a play and Flacco didn't?

This board is always talking about how the only successful season is a SB season. If that is to remain the standard, then having a "franchise" QB is the only consistently proven path to that goal.

Anything else is pie in the sky thinking. Now, I am not saying that you pack up your tents and just quit when you don't have one, but filling that roster gap has to be priority #1 until you get one.

[teegre]

So unless we want to downgrade Eli Manning to "decent" QB (which I totally support) then what decent QB's are we talking about?

Flacco? Like I said, he went on a record setting run to win his lone SB and has looked team hurtingly not good since then. Kaep? His two playoff runs were more than average and involved him making numerous game altering plays.

Alex Smith or a player like him is who I feel everyone has in their heads when they say "decent" or "average" QB. But look at KC recently. Take the playoff game against the Steelers last season. If Smith could've completed a TD pass to a WR since sometime other than his second year in college, the Chiefs might have beaten the Steelers.

Look at the past 3-5 Bengals rosters. What has their weak link been? Before this season (since they decided that o line was not important), CB and QB. On an offense featuring a top 5 WR, a top 5 TE, a above average RB, and prior to this year good to pretty darn good o lines. Those teams scared no one come playoff time because Dalton can't beat you enough times to matter.

Look at the last several Texans squads. Great WR. Good TEs. Decent RBs. Lights out defense. I mean they took the Pats to the wall. Except their QB play wasn't good enough. How much better than Osweiler would it have had to been? I don't know but that team might've been a SB champion except for poor QB play. Same with Denver. If Seiman coul've been an actual playmaker, then that team might've won another championship.

I can see the attraction of your point, but I just do not see recent real-world examples of this "everything but the QB is above average" winning formula. I do see it working if you want to be basically one and done every season with maybe a "lucky" deep playoff run every third year or so. And that is best case. Worst case is you pick about 15th every damn year in the draft and tread water year in and year out. Kinda the Jeff Fisher level.

That's not for me. It all starts and ends with the QB. If you don't have one, I really don't care what else you got on your roster, overwhelming probability is that you are not winning a championship.

You're not wrong.

Looking at the the past few SuperBowl QBs:

2016: Brady vs Marty Ice (HOF, MVP)
2015: Old Peyton vs. Cam (the anomaly, MVP)
2014: Brady vs Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2013: Peyton vs. Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2012: Flacco vs. Kaepernick (best post season ever, great year)
2011: Brady vs. Eli (HOF, franchise QB)
2010: BB vs. Rodgers (HOF, HOF)
2009: Peyton vs. Brees (HOF, HOF)
2008: BB vs. Warner (HOF, HOF)

Before the Broncos in 2015, the last time that a team truly won without a franchise QB was the 2003 Buccaneers. So, your point is backed up by facts and history.

That said, if you gave me an insane defense and AB, Bell, & our O-line... I think I’d be able to make a solid run at the championship. Alas, Cowher thought this way, as well... only to have his QB lose the game for him in 1994, 1995, 1997, & 2001.

[Mojouw]

You're not wrong.

Looking at the the past few SuperBowl QBs:

2016: Brady vs Marty Ice (HOF, MVP)
2015: Old Peyton vs. Cam (the anomaly, MVP)
2014: Brady vs Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2013: Peyton vs. Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2012: Flacco vs. Kaepernick (best post season ever, great year)
2011: Brady vs. Eli (HOF, franchise QB)
2010: BB vs. Rodgers (HOF, HOF)
2009: Peyton vs. Brees (HOF, HOF)
2008: BB vs. Warner (HOF, HOF)

Before the Broncos in 2015, the last time that a team truly won without a franchise QB was the 2003 Buccaneers. So, your point is backed up by facts and history.

That said, if you gave me an insane defense and AB, Bell, & our O-line... I think I’d be able to make a solid run at the championship. Alas, Cowher thought this way, as well... only to have his QB lose the game for him in 1994, 1995, 1997, & 2001.

That is my fear and point - I think. You all that are arguing for a great overall roster and an average-ish QB making a run are also right. But I've seen that movie before and it is pretty frustrating.

[DesertSteel]

You're not wrong.

Looking at the the past few SuperBowl QBs:

2016: Brady vs Marty Ice (HOF, MVP)
2015: Old Peyton vs. Cam (the anomaly, MVP)
2014: Brady vs Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2013: Peyton vs. Wilson (HOF, franchise QB)
2012: Flacco vs. Kaepernick (best post season ever, great year)
2011: Brady vs. Eli (HOF, franchise QB)
2010: BB vs. Rodgers (HOF, HOF)
2009: Peyton vs. Brees (HOF, HOF)
2008: BB vs. Warner (HOF, HOF)

Before the Broncos in 2015, the last time that a team truly won without a franchise QB was the 2003 Buccaneers. So, your point is backed up by facts and history.

That said, if you gave me an insane defense and AB, Bell, & our O-line... I think I’d be able to make a solid run at the championship. Alas, Cowher thought this way, as well... only to have his QB lose the game for him in 1994, 1995, 1997, & 2001.
Even though you are giving them kudos for their postseason, both QBs in 2012 were anomolies to the great QB formula.

[Mojouw]

Joe Flacco's postseason that year was better than anyone not named "Montana". That's ever. Like of all time.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/4/3950478/2013-super-bowl-xlvii-joe-flacco

Flacco stunk before and he stinks again now. But for one jaw-dropping post-season he had 4 of the greatest play-off games anyone ever played (statistically at least).

[DesertSteel]

Joe Flacco's postseason that year was better than anyone not named "Montana". That's ever. Like of all time.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/4/3950478/2013-super-bowl-xlvii-joe-flacco

Flacco stunk before and he stinks again now. But for one jaw-dropping post-season he had 4 of the greatest play-off games anyone ever played (statistically at least).
He was on fire. But overall he's still average to below average (and rich).

[teegre]

Even though you are giving them kudos for their postseason, both QBs in 2012 were anomolies to the great QB formula.

True.

Flacco required a record-breaking postseason to win a championship... which kind of validates Mojouw’s point: you might get championship-level play out of an average QB, but it HAS to be a championship level in order to win a championship. And, more importantly, it doesn’t last.

Kaepernick’s run was before teams figured out how to stop him: play 8 in the box to stop the run and force him to pass. But, again, it required a great postseason from him (and then... he reverted back to being awful).


In a way, both you & Mojouw are correct:

Long-term (Mojouw): you need a franchise QB

Short-term (you): it is possible to win a championship w/ Alex Smith... but... it would require championship-level play from him.

[polamalubeast]

We were very close to seeing a Super Bowl between Alex Smith and Joe Flacco in 2011 too, but this is true that it is very rare!

Even between 1992 to 1999, every super bowl winning QB are in the HOF.