polamalubeast
08-24-2017, 05:28 PM
Two months ago, we ran a special feature listing the best teams of the past 30 years according to Football Outsiders' advanced DVOA metric. The coming disaster of the 2017 New York Jets has us thinking about the flip side of that list: the worst teams of the past 30 years.
Once again, we can tell you that our DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric accounts for all of this, measuring success on each play based on down and distance, then comparing it to an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. (You can read more of the details here.) It's built to balance a measurement of how well a team has played in the past with a forecast of how well a team will play in the future. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past 30 years.
It's important to remember that DVOA is measuring efficiency on a per-play basis, rather than looking at top-line wins and losses. The 0-16 Lions do not have the worst DVOA of all time, and some 1-15 teams don't even come close to the bottom. (The 2007 Miami Dolphins went 1-15 but don't even rank among the 100 worst teams of the last 30 years; they played one of the three toughest schedules in the league and lost six games by just a field goal.)
read more
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20435560/the-worst-nfl-teams-30-years
Once again, we can tell you that our DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) metric accounts for all of this, measuring success on each play based on down and distance, then comparing it to an NFL average baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. (You can read more of the details here.) It's built to balance a measurement of how well a team has played in the past with a forecast of how well a team will play in the future. Ratings each year are normalized, accounting for changes in the NFL's offensive environment over the past 30 years.
It's important to remember that DVOA is measuring efficiency on a per-play basis, rather than looking at top-line wins and losses. The 0-16 Lions do not have the worst DVOA of all time, and some 1-15 teams don't even come close to the bottom. (The 2007 Miami Dolphins went 1-15 but don't even rank among the 100 worst teams of the last 30 years; they played one of the three toughest schedules in the league and lost six games by just a field goal.)
read more
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20435560/the-worst-nfl-teams-30-years