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Craic
04-28-2017, 12:05 AM
So, as I don't watch college FB, I tend not to read up on college players until after the draft because there's just too many to learn about in order to speak smartly about any of them. Of course, I'll choose a position now and then and give it a look, but . . .

Now that we've picked Watt, I've given his tape a look, and like the title says, I'm not too impressed. I'll go through his 2016 highlights and share what I'm seeing. (Note, after the first couple of vids, I slowed it down to .75 percent speed, so it might look strange when you click the link).

1. This sack (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=19) came against a player with bad mechanics. And worse, it looked like the player was only intending to chip him (not that it was the play, but that's how bad the OT was on the play). Yet, Watt is slowed down by the guy and the has to hustle to get to the QB. Moreover, it took over three seconds to get the QB. That isn't going to to happen in the NFL, even playing against the bad teams. NFL QBs get the ball out much faster.

2. In this sack (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=37), he has a decent dip inside before going outside, but it is nowhere near fast enough against TEs and RBs (this was against a RB). Moreover, he doesn't power through the RB, but runs around him because the RB came up too far and ended up out of position to block. Part of that is Watt's dip, but part of it is more bad blocking mechanics.*

3. Here, we have a Pick Six (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=37). Good reaction by Watt, and he shows good hands. However, what concerns me more is the way the RB actually moves him before Watt sheds him and runs towards the QB.

4. Now, we have a tackle for a loss (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=97). It looks good, until you watch the OT who completely whiffs on the block. Again, it isn't because of a move or explosive speed. It's due to back mechanics.

5. Watt knocks down this pass (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=107). But what is really concerning is the first highlight I see where he's going against a OT who has decent mechanics, Watt gets owned. He's completely out of the play except for a bad choice by the QB.

6. Similar to five, good fundamentals stymies Watt in this play (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=122). The upback puts him completely on his heels. It's only because of a bad decision by the RB that Watt can dive sideways and make a tackle.

7. Here (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=134), we're back to OTs with questionable mechanics. I'll give Watt more credit on this one as it looks as though he got the OT off balance a bit. One thing I do see that I like very much is that he runs through the hold.

8. This play (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=150) is just horrid. Watt gets juked, hard, but manages to get his hands on the ball-carriers arm (or ball) and knock it loose. If he doesn't make that strip, he's left watching his teammates covering for him.

9. Watt is second man in on this play (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=165). However, finally, I can say something good about him. The OT (I beleive, since it's on the other side of the field from the camera) comes up and looks to be in good position. He has a slow punch, and goes high instead of to the chest, but nevertheless, Watt meets him and overpowers him—the first time I've seen him do it on this highlight reel. Then, he steps inside and back out to get to the QB and finish up a sack. Nice play.

10. This sack (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=174) comes off a six-man blitz. Watt comes up the middle and hits the RB, pushing him to the side. Not bad at all, but what I'm looking for here is a man vs. boy scenario, and I don't see it. Why am I looking for that? Because NFL RBs will be much better. I think he gets stymied if this is an NFL back here.

11. Here (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=188), he's stunting to the OT so the outside guy can come inside. Nice positioning hitting the OT on the inside shoulder to move him before stepping through. But this power move just isn't powerful enough for the next level. What I do have to commend him on again, is his motor.

12. To be fair, he's not expected to get to the QB this time, (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=214) but he does. It's another crossing stunt and at first, he's double teamed. He doesn't beat the double team, but he does keep awareness of the play and when the QB steps up, he moves to the inside, around another lineman, and gets the sack.

13. Here (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=230), we're back to getting stymied by an OT that has decent technique. He gets the sack purely because of a bad decision on the QB in where he steps up. Watt is taken completely out of the play otherwise.

14. This sack (https://youtu.be/4D6xzoyg2mY?t=250) is a mix of bad technique by the OT and good play by Watt. The OT comes up way too far (bad technique). Watt takes advantage of it and explodes into his chest, driving him backwards right to the QB. The bad technique makes this play not as impressive as it first looked, but it's still nice to see Watt able take advantage of the mistake.

On the last two plays of this video, Watt has a nice knockdown from the middle of the scrum, and then he comes in off the edge to tack the RB.

_________________

So, what am I seeing? Most of Watts sacks came against bad technique. They were sacks where he took advantage of what players gave him, rather than sacks where he created the opportunity himself. That really scares me if he's our first round draft pick. Moreover, in the sack where he moves past the RB, while he created the opportunity, he did it against a player that is not NFL caliber for blocking, yet he didn't look completely dominant against the guy (the man v. boy thing).

He does have a good motor, and he also has good football sense, it seems. But he's going to need a year or two to put muscle on that frame before he'll be effective in a way that we want him to be. I honestly think he's a 3-5 year project, and should have gone perhaps 3-4 round—maybe second if he showed something at the combine or pro-day that shows he's already taking steps mentioned here. But from where I sit now, this was as much of a reach as the Mahome pick earlier tonight, maybe even more.

In short, unless he busts his rear-end in the weight room and also with speed coaches, we've just drafted Jarvis Jones 2.0.

Now . . . the one thing that stands out about him that makes the prior statement not as bad, is his motor. The kid never quits. If he carries that into the weight room and puts the work in both there and with coaches for developing quick-twitch muscle so he can get faster, I think he has the ability to be a decent starter. I honestly don't, however, think he has the ability to be a first-round worthy draft choice.

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 12:10 AM
I can see a lot of what you're saying. But his combine #s were almost better than anyone else in the class and compare favorably with guys like Mack and Von Miller. I suspect that his technique is simply underdeveloped as he has no time in the position. Raw with upside. Basically the new Steelers model in the draft.

Shoes
04-28-2017, 12:12 AM
I can see a lot of what you're saying. But his combine #s were almost better than anyone else in the class and compare favorably with guys like Mack and Von Miller. I suspect that his technique is simply underdeveloped as he has no time in the position. Raw with upside. Basically the new Steelers model in the draft.

Which is what Colbert is saying here.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/04/colbert-says-watt-yet-scratch-surface-defensive-player/

teegre
04-28-2017, 12:13 AM
I'll watch the videos tomorrow.

But, I will say this: Big 10 OTs are legit. Poor technique or not, they are usually the cream of the O-line crop.

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 12:17 AM
https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/tj-watt

can dude play in he NFL? No idea, but he is a far better athlete than Jarvis.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/clay-matthews

Clay Matthews is actually a worse athlete.

RunNGun
04-28-2017, 12:19 AM
I wasn't too big on his film either. With his size at OLB, I don't see how he is going to beat NFL OTs on a consistent basis. I like his ability to cover and his athleticism, but he's a project in my eyes. The only other player I would have taken at 30 was Baker, so I'm not too upset. Taco was taken 2 picks too soon.

fansince'76
04-28-2017, 12:21 AM
Dong sacks! :chuckle:

Steelheart
04-28-2017, 12:21 AM
If you guys are interested in just sack highlights Dave Bryan over at the Depot compiled every TJ Watt sack he could find. He did it for other LB's and also compiled INT's and what not for some DB's.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/04/video-wisconsin-edge-t-j-watt-sack-compilation-highlights/



And yeah, whatever concerns there are with Watt here are some key things to keep in mind:

1. He was a 1 year starter at OLB and came out as one of the top rated OLB's in the country.

2. He is a Watt. His work ethic is probably through the roof and he most likely has impeccable character. Helluva combo for a guy you want to reach his ceiling and his ceiling should be high given the traits we can identify.

3. He is a Watt. The Watts seem to be very competitive and he has big brother JJ to show up.

Psycho Ward 86
04-28-2017, 12:37 AM
I can see some of the reasonings against TJ Watt, and some of the more common ones you listed above. But OK, the jarvis jones crap is getting really out of hand. If i had a dollar for every OLB prospect a steelers fan compared to jarvis jones id be a millionaire. The closest thing these 2 have in common is size, and TJ is still in the upper hand there:

TJ Watt
Height: 6'4''
Weight: 252lb
Arm Length: 33 1/8''
Hands: 11''

40 Yard Dash: 4.69
Bench press: 21 reps
Vertical Jump: 37''
Broad Jump: 10'8''
3 Cone Drill: 6.79
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.13
60 Yard Shuttle: 11.2

TJ placed in the top 3 in 5 out of 7 combine tests. the 2 tests where he didnt (40 yard dash and bench press) he still put up solid numbers at worst

Jarvis Jones
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 245lb
Arm Length: 33''
Hands: 9 1/8''

40 Yard Dash: 4.92
Bench press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 30''
Broad Jump: 9'3'' (which would have tied for last at his position if he were at the combine)
3 Cone Drill: N/A
20 Yard Shuttle: N/A
60 Yard Shuttle: N/A

And as said above, TJ has barely even played this position and already has good fundamentals and decent polish for such a neophyte. Their scouting reports look nothing alike. If TJ finds a way to be a bust itll be for completely different reasons than Jarvis Jones

teegre
04-28-2017, 12:49 AM
I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

st33lersguy
04-28-2017, 12:55 AM
He is not Jarvis Jones 2.0, not even close. Watt comes with two important strengths, athleticism and a high motor. Any deficiencies he has could easily be improved with coaching and added experience. Oh and I'm sure having a guy like James Harrison to learn from will help as well.

- - - Updated - - -


I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

He could play ILB which is an added bonus, though I seem to remember Bud's draft card two years ago read LB

Psycho Ward 86
04-28-2017, 01:02 AM
I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

Ill go bonkers if that happens. We should have just drafted Reuben Foster if we wanted an ILB. The plot thickens :lol:

teegre
04-28-2017, 01:05 AM
Ill go bonkers if that happens. We should have just drafted Reuben Foster if we wanted an ILB. The plot thickens :lol:

Or... I'm simply wearing my tinfoil hat. :wink02:

Steelheart
04-28-2017, 01:05 AM
I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

In the pick presser with Tomlin and Colbert they were specifically asked about where he would play and Tomlin said it would be outside. I would assume if they are going to start off trying him there before inside they wouldn't take Rivers with the assumption he would be the guy. I could foresee a OLB double dip but not at 1 and 2 because both would essentially be expected to start and there is only 1 spot.

teegre
04-28-2017, 01:07 AM
In the pick presser with Tomlin and Colbert they were specifically asked about where he would play and Tomlin said it would be outside.

Well, that solves that mystery. :nod:

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 01:16 AM
Welcome to Steeler Nation TJ!!

Craic
04-28-2017, 03:32 AM
I can see some of the reasonings against TJ Watt, and some of the more common ones you listed above. But OK, the jarvis jones crap is getting really out of hand. If i had a dollar for every OLB prospect a steelers fan compared to jarvis jones id be a millionaire. The closest thing these 2 have in common is size, and TJ is still in the upper hand there . . .

And as said above, TJ has barely even played this position and already has good fundamentals and decent polish for such a neophyte. Their scouting reports look nothing alike. If TJ finds a way to be a bust itll be for completely different reasons than Jarvis Jones


He is not Jarvis Jones 2.0, not even close. Watt comes with two important strengths, athleticism and a high motor. Any deficiencies he has could easily be improved with coaching and added experience. Oh and I'm sure having a guy like James Harrison to learn from will help as well.
He could play ILB which is an added bonus, though I seem to remember Bud's draft card two years ago read LB

I should have been more specific in what I meant about being Jarvis Jones. I apologize.

What I meant was, Jones had a motor, but he was always stymied and couldn't get to the QB. He lacked the strength to push through a lineman, and lacked the moves to get around a lineman. Right now, that's what I'm also seeing in Watt when projecting him against NFL players.

Also, remember I'm talking about right now. Do I think he's hit his ceiling? No. And, if Mojouw is correct concerning combine numbers, then he's already beginning to put in the work needed. I still think it was a reach from what I saw on tape (at least trade down a few into the second), but what I've said to others also applies to me. There's a reason I'm sitting behind a computer screen and they're working for the Steelers organization. Anyway, those are my thoughts. Now, I need to shut off the computer before the wife yells at me to come to bed.

Six Rings
04-28-2017, 06:02 AM
I'll watch the videos tomorrow.

But, I will say this: Big 10 OTs are legit. Poor technique or not, they are usually the cream of the O-line crop.

I like this tape. Watt is an ascending player who only started 14 games. The film shows very strong hands ( 11", maybe the biggest in the draft ) the ability to pin ball, high effort, and good awareness as a pass rusher.

Watt is a plus run defender, and worked out very well ( Running, jumping, agility tests ).

The production is very good in the big ten.

2016 season, 63 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 15.5 tackles for losses, 1 interception, 4 passes defended, 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery and a touchdown. Now that is excellent all around production!

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tj-watt-1.html

pczach
04-28-2017, 06:11 AM
I think the people that don't buy into Watt as a first round pick just don't understand how difficult it is to change positions....particularly from offense to defense or vice versa. That Watt was able to transition from tight end and be amongst the best OLB in the country in a very short period of time is extraordinary.

We have only to look at our own roster and see Villanueva to see how much growth is possible if the talent and athleticism is there.

This kid is not Jarvis Jones.....not even close. Just so you know, I was one of the people back at Steelers Fever that warned everyone about Jones. I watched tons of tape on both of these guys. Jones made most of his plays by simply shooting gaps and sometimes ignoring his responsibilities on plays. He was smaller, slower, had less quickness, fewer moves, and less athletic than Watt in every way while also having much more experience at the position by a mile.

Those of you that are seeing a player that won't make a difference or comparing him to Jones need to take a breath. Everything is going to be fine. Give this kid just a little time to work, and you will see some good things happening very quickly.

I see tons of upside. He has so much more to learn at the position and his technique and use of hands is only going to get better....plus he's going to get stronger.

This kid will be at worst a very good player in the NFL IMO.

Shoes
04-28-2017, 06:45 AM
I think the people that don't buy into Watt as a first round pick just don't understand how difficult it is to change positions....particularly from offense to defense or vice versa. That Watt was able to transition from tight end and be amongst the best OLB in the country in a very short period of time is extraordinary.

We have only to look at our own roster and see Villanueva to see how much growth is possible if the talent and athleticism is there.

This kid is not Jarvis Jones.....not even close. Just so you know, I was one of the people back at Steelers Fever that warned everyone about Jones. I watched tons of tape on both of these guys. Jones made most of his plays by simply shooting gaps and sometimes ignoring his responsibilities on plays. He was smaller, slower, had less quickness, fewer moves, and less athletic than Watt in every way while also having much more experience at the position by a mile.

Those of you that are seeing a player that won't make a difference or comparing him to Jones need to take a breath. Everything is going to be fine. Give this kid just a little time to work, and you will see some good things happening very quickly.

I see tons of upside. He has so much more to learn at the position and his technique and use of hands is only going to get better....plus he's going to get stronger.

This kid will be at worst a very good player in the NFL IMO.

Well said, let's let the kid get fitted with his helmet. He's going to bring the fire back to the defense.

tube517
04-28-2017, 06:46 AM
Dong sacks! :chuckle:

http://www.metmuseum.org/toah/images/hb/hb_14.37.jpg :chuckle:

Texasteel
04-28-2017, 07:16 AM
I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

This was the first thing I thought when we took him. I don't think Rivers is off our board yet.

Texasteel
04-28-2017, 07:21 AM
Well, that solves that mystery. :nod:

Didn't they also say Watt didn't have 1st round talent?

86WARD
04-28-2017, 07:32 AM
Most of the players selected in the first round aren't first round talent.

Texasteel
04-28-2017, 07:40 AM
Not saying yes or no to Watt on the inside. Just saying that we are only through the 1st round, and the draft games go on.

teegre
04-28-2017, 07:55 AM
This was the first thing I thought when we took him. I don't think Rivers is off our board yet.

The Steelers will run a 2-5. :chuckle:

- - - Updated - - -


Didn't they also say Watt didn't have 1st round talent?

True.
I mentioned it in DesertSteel's Watt thread, that I had read that the Steelers would not be interested in Watt until 62... and they took him at 30. Likewise, they stated that he's an OLB... but, they could switch him to ILB.

Once a BSer, always a BSer. :lol:

- - - Updated - - -


Not saying yes or no to Watt on the inside. Just saying that we are only through the 1st round, and the draft games go on.

Bingo!!!

Rotorhead
04-28-2017, 10:01 AM
I if he grows as much his first hear with us as he did he only year at this position, he will be a good to great starter after a year. Honestly he just needs to build muscle and learn from now until the second half of the season where he can hopefully start subbing in for JH. That is what I was looking for in a player. Hell, if he is half the player his brother was, he will be a top 10 OLB.

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 10:04 AM
Jarvis Jones 2.0. Lol.

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 10:27 AM
I wish that I could post pictures (I'm such an idiot sometimes).

The card turned in for Watt says "LB"... not OLB.

Could they play him at ILB???... and, get Rivers at 62 (to play OLB).

I think Watt could do it. UW moved him around a bit once Cichy went down for the year. Look, when I watch Watt, I see Clay Matthews and not just because they are kinda goofy moving white guys. Both have the trend that their best skill is rushing the passer, but they can do it from inside or out. Both can defend the pass a bit and both can do other LB things besides just line up and rush the passer.

I think the best thing about Watt, as a prospect, is that his ceiling might not be in the stratosphere like Garret or even Tak --- but his floor is really high. Like the worst you are getting is a 6 sack guy that anchors against the run, is position flexible, and can swat passes. I know that isn't a 1st round pick, but Watt in my opinion was the least risky of the OLB prospects.

polamalubeast
04-28-2017, 10:50 AM
857939084743856128

Dwinsgames
04-28-2017, 11:09 AM
I can see a lot of what you're saying. But his combine #s were almost better than anyone else in the class and compare favorably with guys like Mack and Von Miller. I suspect that his technique is simply underdeveloped as he has no time in the position. Raw with upside. Basically the new Steelers model in the draft.

and that is the problem allowing combine numbers to overrule what is on tape , that is a failed scouting technique and proven to be the quickest way to land players who do not make the grade at the next level ...

combine numbers set teams up to fail with picks if those numbers do not show up on tape ... In Watts case people will use the excuse he only has a years worth of tape and is learning the position so he will get better ( and he may ) but its fair to say there is an equal shot that he won't ..

I have never said he is a bad player but I have maintained he is to raw to select at 30 ( prior to the pick )

Takk McKinley was my player based on TAPE ... (based on post draft interview I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole ) so while I am not happy about the Watt selection I would have only been momentarily happy with Takk

at this moment I would rather have taken Obi and hoped for Lawson or Rivers at 62

Watt is the Mitch Trubisky of Linebackers , sure he has a chance but its a big gamble and with first round picks I would rather place my chips on a player with better odds of paying off

teegre
04-28-2017, 11:19 AM
I think Watt could do it. UW moved him around a bit once Cichy went down for the year. Look, when I watch Watt, I see Clay Matthews and not just because they are kinda goofy moving white guys. Both have the trend that their best skill is rushing the passer, but they can do it from inside or out. Both can defend the pass a bit and both can do other LB things besides just line up and rush the passer.

I think the best thing about Watt, as a prospect, is that his ceiling might not be in the stratosphere like Garret or even Tak --- but his floor is really high. Like the worst you are getting is a 6 sack guy that anchors against the run, is position flexible, and can swat passes. I know that isn't a 1st round pick, but Watt in my opinion was the least risky of the OLB prospects.

So... you're saying there's a chance.


Good post.

Psycho Ward 86
04-28-2017, 11:37 AM
and that is the problem allowing combine numbers to overrule what is on tape , that is a failed scouting technique and proven to be the quickest way to land players who do not make the grade at the next level ...

combine numbers set teams up to fail with picks if those numbers do not show up on tape ... In Watts case people will use the excuse he only has a years worth of tape and is learning the position so he will get better ( and he may ) but its fair to say there is an equal shot that he won't ..

I have never said he is a bad player but I have maintained he is to raw to select at 30 ( prior to the pick )

Takk McKinley was my player based on TAPE ... (based on post draft interview I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole ) so while I am not happy about the Watt selection I would have only been momentarily happy with Takk

at this moment I would rather have taken Obi and hoped for Lawson or Rivers at 62

Watt is the Mitch Trubisky of Linebackers , sure he has a chance but its a big gamble and with first round picks I would rather place my chips on a player with better odds of paying off

What games of Takk and Watt are you watching? Tomlin/Colbert kind of put it best, that Watt is more inexperienced than raw. Takk is straight up raw. He gets pushed up the arc quite a bit. He rushes the passer standing straight up, cant bend, is kind of so-so at recalibrating himself when he tries to counter. His hand fighting is far less nuanced than TJ. Not sure what you're seeing here and from what games.

In Takk's defense though, I think people (in general) are being really ridiculous about criticizing him in his post interview. Really guys? The dude grew up in Compton, arguably the roughest neighborhood out there and his grandmother helped him get where he is today and she just died. Yeah, I might lose my composure a little bit too. Ive heard a lot less criticism for actually bad things. This guy was more likely to be out on the streets trapping than make it to the NFL as a highly rated prospect.

Swearing a few times and telling America that he plays football for his grandmother is very low on my list of negatives but thats just me. Takk deserved plus marks for character and work ethic before and that doesnt change for me.

Dwinsgames
04-28-2017, 11:50 AM
What games of Takk and Watt are you watching? Tomlin/Colbert kind of put it best, that Watt is more inexperienced than raw. Takk is straight up raw. He gets pushed up the arc quite a bit. He rushes the passer standing straight up, cant bend, is kind of so-so at recalibrating himself when he tries to counter. His hand fighting is far less nuanced than TJ. Not sure what you're seeing here and from what games.

In Takk's defense though, I think people (in general) are being really ridiculous about criticizing him in his post interview. Really guys? The dude grew up in Compton, arguably the roughest neighborhood out there and his grandmother helped him get where he is today and she just died. Yeah, I might lose my composure a little bit too. Ive heard a lot less criticism for actually bad things. This guy was more likely to be out on the streets trapping than make it to the NFL as a highly rated prospect.

Swearing a few times and telling America that he plays football for his grandmother is very low on my list of negatives but thats just me. Takk deserved plus marks for character and work ethic before and that doesnt change for me.

For Takk
ASU
Stanford
and a couple others along with all the highlights I could find

for Watt
LSU
Michigan
and highlights

zulater
04-28-2017, 12:01 PM
Chidi (aka Alex Kozaro of Steelers depot) says it was the right pick, so I'll go with him for now. He breaks down the film pretty well, he put an article up today explaining it.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2017/04/tj-watt-steelers-perfect-expected-pick/

st33lersguy
04-28-2017, 12:11 PM
How about a more athletic Clay Matthews?

BurghBoy412
04-28-2017, 12:20 PM
I'm not a big Watt guy but I trust that Colbert, Tomlin, and the bunch know what they're doing. I really like the fact that Harrison is still there to help him along as well.

Born2Steel
04-28-2017, 12:25 PM
Just wait until you see his Steeler tape. Get ready to be impressed.

Psycho Ward 86
04-28-2017, 12:26 PM
I'm not a big Watt guy but I trust that Colbert, Tomlin, and the bunch know what they're doing. I really like the fact that Harrison is still there to help him along as well.

the mentorship connected to this team is insane. JJ Watt for TJ Watt, Chuck Smith for Bud Dupree, and James Harrison for...well everybody

Craic
04-28-2017, 12:39 PM
857939084743856128

Wait, weren't many here saying just the other day that the combine is pretty much outdated because it tests athleticism and not football? So, in an age when we have tape on everyone, it's a worthless endeavor only being carried on by that Evil Goodell guy to squeeze a few more bucks from fans (I think that was the gist of the opinions). I find it funny, because what we have here is simply a result of the measurements of the combine. It has nothing to do with gametape in which I see the exact same thing happening to Watt that I did with Jones.

Craic
04-28-2017, 12:49 PM
Those of you that are seeing a player that won't make a difference or comparing him to Jones need to take a breath. Everything is going to be fine. Give this kid just a little time to work, and you will see some good things happening very quickly.

I see tons of upside. He has so much more to learn at the position and his technique and use of hands is only going to get better....plus he's going to get stronger.

This kid will be at worst a very good player in the NFL IMO.

If this first line was directed at me, then could you go back and re-read my posts, please? Because I'm talking about the here and now. Not what he might be in the future. However, even switching from TE to LB, certain things will switch with you, like speed and strength, neither of which I saw at an elite level I'd expect for a first round pick.
---------------

Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year before)?

- - - Updated - - -


I think Watt could do it. UW moved him around a bit once Cichy went down for the year. Look, when I watch Watt, I see Clay Matthews and not just because they are kinda goofy moving white guys. Both have the trend that their best skill is rushing the passer, but they can do it from inside or out. Both can defend the pass a bit and both can do other LB things besides just line up and rush the passer.

I think the best thing about Watt, as a prospect, is that his ceiling might not be in the stratosphere like Garret or even Tak --- but his floor is really high. Like the worst you are getting is a 6 sack guy that anchors against the run, is position flexible, and can swat passes. I know that isn't a 1st round pick, but Watt in my opinion was the least risky of the OLB prospects.

I really hope so. I just don't see a floor that high. I see a floor being 1-2 sacks and a guy that can get blocked out of position on runs. His ceiling? Conversely, I think it is probably higher than you do. He has the frame to put on quite a bit of muscle. If he can get that quick twitch to go along with strength, he most definitely has the motor and also the football awareness to make plays all over the field.

86WARD
04-28-2017, 01:03 PM
Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year



Is it possibly because people think that the backend of the defense is more of a need and more urgency than the OLB?

Craic
04-28-2017, 01:12 PM
Is it possibly because people think that the backend of the defense is more of a need and more urgency than the OLB?

Definitely possible. But our LBs are still the core of our defense, so I think the urgency is still there.

I'm listening to Colbert and Tomlin take about TJ Watt right now (on tape from last night). The funny thing is, I'm hearing a lot of things that are confirming my thoughts on him. High motor, great football acumen, but is a project and was picked for his ceiling, rather than his immediate ability.

The one thing I liked the most (from an earlier video) is that he supposedly loves the weight room. As I've said repeatedly, if that is true, and if he works on his speed as well, I think he has a very high ceiling. Again, I just don't think he's a first rounder. I'd rather we traded down into the top of the second round, picked up another 3rd or fourth round (perhaps a 2 round next year) and see if he's still there. Now that I've seen and heard a bit more on him, I would've been happy with that choice.

86WARD
04-28-2017, 01:19 PM
Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?

Dwinsgames
04-28-2017, 01:25 PM
Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?


well yea he could be Jarvis was a serviceable backup but you do not draft serviceable in rd1 ( or shouldn't anyways ) , but I do not think he will be worse

Craic
04-28-2017, 01:27 PM
Good thing is if he's gonna learn, this is the place he will succeed. If not, he just doesn't have it. Can't be worse than Jarvis...right?!?

Nope, and thus, my comment about Jarvis 2.0 (at the moment).


I just watched his combine material. I think his 4.84 40 is deceiving and a product of bad form. (A track coach could maybe have shaved a couple tenths off that). He comes up way too fast and because of it, his footwork is slower as he's carrying all his weight, rather than letting gravity pull him forward for those first three or so steps. His work on the cones where he stays down looks quite a bit better.

Johnkster59
04-28-2017, 01:36 PM
For Takk
ASU
Stanford
and a couple others along with all the highlights I could find

for Watt
LSU
Michigan
and highlights
Just fyi those were TJ's 1st and 4th games at OLB. He showed marked improvement as the year went on. This pick is a home run. I'm sure many people here have already covered the many reasons why, so I won't double up on it. Suffice it to say that I disagree with the OP on many of his takes from those plays. Side note that RB that you dismiss in the 2nd clip is Saquon Barkley and he will probably be a top 5 pick next year.

You could pretty much copy and past the reactions from people on the Houston Boards after they picked JJ. 'Sure the combine numbers show this guy is one of the best athletes in the world and he has an established work ethic and focus that borders on the insane, but I'm not impressed because half of his 12 sacks weren't impressive enough. I don't think he will ever do much in the League.' Save this thread, it will be good for a laugh in a couple years. Much like this one http://houston.culturemap.com/news/sports/04-29-11-texans-will-rue-the-night-they-took-pizza-boy-watts-over-nick-fairley-houston-lover/#slide=0

Steelheart
04-28-2017, 01:42 PM
Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year before)?

Simple answer really. We didn't necessarily have anyone at corner so you would prefer a guy to come in NFL ready. At OLB we have Dupree and Harrison so there is a bit of time for Watt to develop.

86WARD
04-28-2017, 01:56 PM
well yea he could be Jarvis was a serviceable backup but you do not draft serviceable in rd1 ( or shouldn't anyways ) , but I do not think he will be worse

But there is the upside which I think is greater than what Jarvis had on draft day...no?

Dwinsgames
04-28-2017, 01:59 PM
Simple answer really. We didn't necessarily have anyone at corner so you would prefer a guy to come in NFL ready. At OLB we have Dupree and Harrison so there is a bit of time for Watt to develop.

Reliance on a 38 year old OLB to carry most of the load is not realistic proposition , Granted James Harrison is not you normal 38 year old but I still believe you are asking a lot from a guy who puts it all on the line every play at his age .

I Love James Harrison as much as the next steeler fan but at the end of the day you just have to realize father time is undefeated and knocking at the door

most guys James age have been retired for a half dozen years by now

Steelheart
04-28-2017, 02:15 PM
Reliance on a 38 year old OLB to carry most of the load is not realistic proposition , Granted James Harrison is not you normal 38 year old but I still believe you are asking a lot from a guy who puts it all on the line every play at his age .

I Love James Harrison as much as the next steeler fan but at the end of the day you just have to realize father time is undefeated and knocking at the door

most guys James age have been retired for a half dozen years by now

I am not expecting James to be DPotY but I also don't think he is going to fall off a cliff. Main point is, even if Watt has a few rookie bumps in the road you still have James there who isn't going to give you bad snaps.

Steeldude
04-28-2017, 02:30 PM
I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

When will pre-season get here? My TV is useless in the off-season.

- - - Updated - - -


But there is the upside which I think is greater than what Jarvis had on draft day...no?

Yes. There is much more upside with Watt.

Born2Steel
04-28-2017, 02:32 PM
I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

When will pre-season get here? My TV is useless in the off-season.

- - - Updated - - -



Yes. There is much more upside with Watt.

IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

BurghBoy412
04-28-2017, 03:03 PM
the mentorship connected to this team is insane. JJ Watt for TJ Watt, Chuck Smith for Bud Dupree, and James Harrison for...well everybody
Great that our young talent can be around leaders like that! Good things on the horizon!

BurghBoy412
04-28-2017, 03:08 PM
I personally lack a good feeling for Watt as a starter in the NFL at the moment. He seems slow off the line and lacks the raw strength to make up for it. His durability is a concern too. He suffered left and right knee injuries at Wisconsin. Hopefully this initial feeling is wrong and he becomes the next great OLB in a Steelers uniform.

Good reason to draft another OLB before the end of this draft. A little insurance policy wouldn't hurt.

Steeldude
04-28-2017, 03:36 PM
IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

I doubt they will rotate him in at ILB. He will automatically receive playing time based on his draft status. All remains to be seen.

Usually you can tell in the first year if someone is going to excel as a pass rusher in the NFL. Well, if they are given some playing time that is. Jarvis Jones was a complete eyesore from the start and he didn't improve at all. That was expected by most. With Watt there is more upside. If he can't earn a starting spot in 2018 the Steelers will be drafting another OLB early in 2019.

As of right now I am 40/60 on Watt. But it's just an opinion.

Craic
04-28-2017, 03:40 PM
IF...Watt starts as a situational OLB until he learns the position better, and can rotate at ILB as well, does that make the pick better?

No. Because once again, I thought Watt is a reach in the first round. Sure, I've upgraded my position on him this morning after viewing combine tape and listening to what the coaches like about him. I can see the fast hands and I liked that he seemed faster at the combine. But to me, he's still no better than a middle second round pick. Had we traded down into the second and taken a third and fourth, or even a third and fifth; or had we picked someone else and then paired our last third round with our second and came up to the middle of the second round to get him, I'd be happy with it.

But straight up first round? For what he brings to the table right now? No. (IMO)

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 03:45 PM
Wait, weren't many here saying just the other day that the combine is pretty much outdated because it tests athleticism and not football? So, in an age when we have tape on everyone, it's a worthless endeavor only being carried on by that Evil Goodell guy to squeeze a few more bucks from fans (I think that was the gist of the opinions). I find it funny, because what we have here is simply a result of the measurements of the combine. It has nothing to do with gametape in which I see the exact same thing happening to Watt that I did with Jones.

I mean I guess some believe that. For me, tape and the combine are attempting to assess and quantify two different things. The combine and pro days let us see if a player has the baseline athleticism to make plays in the NFL. I bet there is some dude out there who can catch 4 footballs at the same time with one leg tied to the other but he runs a 40 in 8.6 seconds - so that doesn't matter. Tape lets you determine if that athleticism is translating at all to the football field. The problem is that both can lie to you.

Take Jarvis Jones (dear good someone please take him!). His tape "lied". He was consistently "schemed" as the "playmaker" for his college team. Most of his plays came after others had done the dirty work and he cleaned up often unblocked. That don't work in the NFL. Jones simply wasn't a good enough athlete to beat NFL players one on one. Combine testing should have and did catch that - but everyone kept getting entranced by the tape/stats.

All I am saying with Watt is that many of the issues that are being raised can be explained be either inexperience/poor technique OR bad athlete. His testing #'s say it is not "bad athlete". So with intensive coaching on the foundations of his position -- his issues get cleaned up and then where is the ceiling?

- - - Updated - - -


Definitely possible. But our LBs are still the core of our defense, so I think the urgency is still there.

I'm listening to Colbert and Tomlin take about TJ Watt right now (on tape from last night). The funny thing is, I'm hearing a lot of things that are confirming my thoughts on him. High motor, great football acumen, but is a project and was picked for his ceiling, rather than his immediate ability.

The one thing I liked the most (from an earlier video) is that he supposedly loves the weight room. As I've said repeatedly, if that is true, and if he works on his speed as well, I think he has a very high ceiling. Again, I just don't think he's a first rounder. I'd rather we traded down into the top of the second round, picked up another 3rd or fourth round (perhaps a 2 round next year) and see if he's still there. Now that I've seen and heard a bit more on him, I would've been happy with that choice.

For me the "project" nature of a player isn't a problem -- as long as it pans out. I think that about 3-6 rookies per year come out of school ready to be difference making contributors Day 1. I want my team to pick the player who will be the most impactful (is that a word?) in Years 3-5. If that is the same guy that has the most impact in Year 1 - BONUS. But I think drafting for immediate impact is how you end up being the Cleveland Browns, Jags, or some other shitty franchise.

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 04:24 PM
Okay, so its this kind of nonsense that gets me all twisted up:

"Analysis from NFL Network draft analyst Lance Zierlein: "I like T.J. Watt, but I don't think he's a great pass rusher. ... He's got some skills and is developing. I think he's going to end up being a much better player than he is right now, but I do think the Steelers (http://www.nfl.com/teams/pittsburghsteelers/profile?team=PIT) are a pretty good fit for him."

What does that even mean? He's not great now? Or he won't be great ever? How much of a better player? It is basically a non-sense statement that I can only translate as:

This gets a bad grade from me because the player won't dominate in 2017 so therefore the grade is blllllleeeeeee. However, said player may be really good in the future -- but screw that 2017 is all that matters?

By this logic, Aaron Rodgers was a bad pick and so were Troy Aikman, Petyon Manning, JJ Watt, and Troy Polamalu. But this jack-ass gets paid to watch football for a living and I have to go to work each day. Plus wasn't his old man the dude who got caught emailing porn and driving around without pants?

Craic
04-28-2017, 04:27 PM
I mean I guess some believe that. For me, tape and the combine are attempting to assess and quantify two different things. The combine and pro days let us see if a player has the baseline athleticism to make plays in the NFL. I bet there is some dude out there who can catch 4 footballs at the same time with one leg tied to the other but he runs a 40 in 8.6 seconds - so that doesn't matter. Tape lets you determine if that athleticism is translating at all to the football field. The problem is that both can lie to you.

Take Jarvis Jones (dear good someone please take him!). His tape "lied". He was consistently "schemed" as the "playmaker" for his college team. Most of his plays came after others had done the dirty work and he cleaned up often unblocked. That don't work in the NFL. Jones simply wasn't a good enough athlete to beat NFL players one on one. Combine testing should have and did catch that - but everyone kept getting entranced by the tape/stats.

All I am saying with Watt is that many of the issues that are being raised can be explained be either inexperience/poor technique OR bad athlete. His testing #'s say it is not "bad athlete". So with intensive coaching on the foundations of his position -- his issues get cleaned up and then where is the ceiling?

Actually, no. The problems I saw was that he was out-muscled by anyone with decent technique and that most of his sacks came from miscues on the O line, not from him creating opportunities. I think I saw three sacks where he actually created the opportunity himself, one of those, however, was helped by bad technique (Watt still showed good power on that one, however), and the other other was simply an overmatched RB, something we won't see much of in the NFL. So no, the problem isn't inexperience or bad technique on Watt. For me, the problem was the fact he didn't put enough on tape where he created opportunities himself in order to warrant being drafted this high.



For me the "project" nature of a player isn't a problem -- as long as it pans out. I think that about 3-6 rookies per year come out of school ready to be difference making contributors Day 1. I want my team to pick the player who will be the most impactful (is that a word?) in Years 3-5. If that is the same guy that has the most impact in Year 1 - BONUS. But I think drafting for immediate impact is how you end up being the Cleveland Browns, Jags, or some other shitty franchise.

I personally don't expect any player to be ready on day one. I do, however, expect first round players to make a few plays later in the season and flash what the future may hold. For me, project player is someone you plan on stashing away for three or so years and trying to coach them up int a position. I do not expect my first round draft picks to be project players. I want to see a significant leap between year one and year two, and another leap between year two and three, which is where NFL players really begin to hit their stride.

What is Watt going to be? Who knows. He's still young. At 22, there's a good chance he still fills out naturally (regardless of weight room ethic) and he has a ton of time and good people to learn from.

Make no mistake, when camp begins, I'll be his biggest fan. But even if he becomes the next great Steelers linebacker and carries the mantle for a decade and a half, unless he begins that reign this year, I'll still argue that without the benefit of hindsight, Watt in round 1 was a reach.

At least I didn't say Waybe Gretzky won't amount to much in the NFL. . . (Yeah, a buddy's father wears that shame).

pczach
04-28-2017, 04:31 PM
If this first line was directed at me, then could you go back and re-read my posts, please? Because I'm talking about the here and now. Not what he might be in the future. However, even switching from TE to LB, certain things will switch with you, like speed and strength, neither of which I saw at an elite level I'd expect for a first round pick.
---------------

Here's a bigger question for everyone. Why is it that last year the cry was our CB choice was a horrible choice because he's was a project that would take a year or two to develop, but our SB window with Ben R. is closing NOW. Yet, this year, when that SB window is closed even more, everyone is OK with taking on even more of a project? (A guy with only one year at the position, and only a year's worth of experience playing at anything about Highschool (except for special teams the year before)?



I was addressing everyone that has concerns about Watt as a player, not you individually. There are people in this thread and in other threads leading up to the draft that didn't believe Watt is a good enough player to take in the first round. I was just addressing that. I don't think what I said is negative in any way towards anybody. It's simply my opinion of a player.

I can't validate my evaluation of Jarvis Jones years ago. If Steelers Fever still existed, I would be able to link my posts. Steelers Fever doesn't exist anymore. I can't really prove that I didn't think Jones would be a good pro. I don't know if there are any fellow SF posters that remember my stance on Jones. I guess that would be the only way to verify that I broke him down in my evaluation as a player that the Steelers should not take.

As for your assessment on the here and now, I believe TJ Watt is a better player than Jarvis Jones right now. I believe if he's on the field next year or getting significant playing time that Watt will probably have more sacks in his rookie season than Jones did in his first few years with the Steelers. You looked at the tape of both players and saw someone equivalent to Jarvis Jones. I looked at the tape of both players and see a player that is already ahead of Jarvis Jones at this stage of his career, is a superior athlete to Jones, is quicker off the ball than Jones, is better with his hands than Jones, has better speed and is able to chase quarterbacks down faster than Jones or get to quarterbacks and running backs that Jones never could. That is just from the tape, but the combine numbers and drills back up what I see with my eyes. I'm not just a combine guy that looks at 40 times, vertical jumps, and bench press reps and comes up with an opinion of a player. You use the combine to validate what you see, not to create an impression of the player.

I watch players live in games to get my first impressions of the player. I then watch game tape to try to break down their game.

What are their strengths?

What are their weaknesses?

How well do they use their hands?

What pass rush moves do they have in the arsenal?

How quick are they off the snap?

Do they rely on guessing the snap count?

Do they maintain their discipline and take care of their responsibilities on plays, or do they freelance?

Do they have the ability to lean and bend the corner?

Do they combine moves?

Do they know how to set up counter moves?

Can they read and react to where the quarterback is and adjust while engaged to make plays?

Do they appear to have a feel for the game?

What kind of a motor do they have?

And any other observations you can pick up watching an edge player.

After that you use the combine and pro day numbers and try to watch as much as you can of the drills that nobody watches or cares about. Then you try to determine a players character. Since I don't have direct contact with players, I rely on whatever you pick up from all the insiders, scouts, media stories, etc... Then do internet searches to see if any stories come up that don't make the national media that are of any consequence.

Now, you say you watched tape. I watched tape. We are just seeing things differently.

It just sounds to me like you are being a little overly critical of what you see as negative plays. He played on a dominant defense last year. There aren't any games where that defense got pushed around, and Watt was a large part of that defense. The only game they got gouged was in the Big Ten Championship game against Penn St, and in that game they only gave up 51 yards rushing. Other than that, you would have a hard time finding him "get blocked out of position on runs".


They also had a pedestrian offense that put a lot of pressure on the defense. Wisconsin's defense only gave up 15.5 points per game and 303 yards per game. https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense

There couldn't be that many breakdowns. They only gave up 98.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. If he could easily be moved, I think teams would have run at him more and had more success.

Look...this happens all the time in football. Two people look at the same player and the same tape and see two different things. I just hope I'm right and you're wrong! :flap:

One last thing. I love Buddha Baker. I have been talking him up around here and think he's an excellent player. Most don't think he's a first round pick, and he wasn't. If you watched NFL Network's coverage yesterday, just before the draft started they asked everyone at the desk for a final thought on a player. As his final thought, Mike Mayock said that Buddha Baker's tape is fantastic and is as good as any player's tape in this draft........anyone's. That tells you what a discrepancy their is on opinions of players, and how much size, speed, and a million other factors are taken into consideration when evaluating a player. A player like Baker probably wasn't drafted in the first round because he wasn't an inch and a half taller and 10 pounds heavier.....even though everything you see on tape tells you he is as good as anybody.

The point is that this is not an exact science, and everyone has a different opinion of the same player while looking at the exact same things.

I believe TJ Watt is a better player than fourth year Jarvis Jones the second his big toe hits the field in Pittsburgh, and I think he has a huge upside. You also think he has a big upside, but just don't see enough in his game yet.

Such is life evaluating players.

:drink:

steelcityboyz
04-28-2017, 04:33 PM
I like the Watt pick. If he can stay healthy he has alot of upside.

Born2Steel
04-28-2017, 04:34 PM
I was addressing everyone that has concerns about Watt as a player, not you individually. There are people in this thread and in other threads leading up to the draft that didn't believe Watt is a good enough player to take in the first round. I was just addressing that. I don't think what I said is negative in any way towards anybody. It's simply my opinion of a player.

I can't validate my evaluation of Jarvis Jones years ago. If Steelers Fever still existed, I would be able to link my posts. Steelers Fever doesn't exist anymore. I can't really prove that I didn't think Jones would be a good pro. I don't know if there are any fellow SF posters that remember my stance on Jones. I guess that would be the only way to verify that I broke him down in my evaluation as a player that the Steelers should not take.

As for your assessment on the here and now, I believe TJ Watt is a better player than Jarvis Jones right now. I believe if he's on the field next year or getting significant playing time that Watt will probably have more sacks in his rookie season than Jones did in his first few years with the Steelers. You looked at the tape of both players and saw someone equivalent to Jarvis Jones. I looked at the tape of both players and see a player that is already ahead of Jarvis Jones at this stage of his career, is a superior athlete to Jones, is quicker off the ball than Jones, is better with his hands than Jones, has better speed and is able to chase quarterbacks down faster than Jones or get to quarterbacks and running backs that Jones never could. That is just from the tape, but the combine numbers and drills back up what I see with my eyes. I'm not just a combine guy that looks at 40 times, vertical jumps, and bench press reps and comes up with an opinion of a player. You use the combine to validate what you see, not to create an impression of the player.

I watch players live in games to get my first impressions of the player. I then watch game tape to try to break down their game.

What are their strengths?

What are their weaknesses?

How well do they use their hands?

What pass rush moves do they have in the arsenal?

How quick are they off the snap?

Do they rely on guessing the snap count?

Do they maintain their discipline and take care of their responsibilities on plays, or do they freelance?

Do they have the ability to lean and bend the corner?

Do they combine moves?

Do they know how to set up counter moves?

Can they read and react to where the quarterback is and adjust while engaged to make plays?

Do they appear to have a feel for the game?

What kind of a motor do they have?

And any other observations you can pick up watching an edge player.

After that you use the combine and pro day numbers and try to watch as much as you can of the drills that nobody watches or cares about. Then you try to determine a players character. Since I don't have direct contact with players, I rely on whatever you pick up from all the insiders, scouts, media stories, etc... Then do internet searches to see if any stories come up that don't make the national media that are of any consequence.

Now, you say you watched tape. I watched tape. We are just seeing things differently.

It just sounds to me like you are being a little overly critical of what you see as negative plays. He played on a dominant defense last year. There aren't any games where that defense got pushed around, and Watt was a large part of that defense. The only game they got gouged was in the Big Ten Championship game against Penn St, and in that game they only gave up 51 yards rushing. Other than that, you would have a hard time finding him "get blocked out of position on runs".


They also had a pedestrian offense that put a lot of pressure on the defense. Wisconsin's defense only gave up 15.5 points per game and 303 yards per game. https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/stats/byteam?cat1=defense

There couldn't be that many breakdowns. They only gave up 98.8 yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush. If he could easily be moved, I think teams would have run at him more and had more success.

Look...this happens all the time in football. Two people look at the same player and the same tape and see two different things. I just hope I'm right and you're wrong! :flap:

One last thing. I love Buddha Baker. I have been talking him up around here and think he's an excellent player. Most don't think he's a first round pick, and he wasn't. If you watched NFL Network's coverage yesterday, just before the draft started they asked everyone at the desk for a final thought on a player. As his final thought, Mike Mayock said that Buddha Baker's tape is fantastic and is as good as any player's tape in this draft........anyone's. That tells you what a discrepancy their is on opinions of players, and how much size, speed, and a million other factors are taken into consideration when evaluating a player. A player like Baker probably wasn't drafted in the first round because he wasn't an inch and a half taller and 10 pounds heavier.....even though everything you see on tape tells you he is as good as anybody.

The point is that this is not an exact science, and everyone has a different opinion of the same player while looking at the exact same things.

I believe TJ Watt is a better player than fourth year Jarvis Jones the second his big toe hits the field in Pittsburgh, and I think he has a huge upside. You also think he has a big upside, but just don't see enough in his game yet.

Such is life evaluating players.

:drink:

DAMN!!!

Craic
04-28-2017, 04:34 PM
Okay, so its this kind of nonsense that gets me all twisted up:

"Analysis from NFL Network draft analyst Lance Zierlein: "I like T.J. Watt, but I don't think he's a great pass rusher. ... He's got some skills and is developing. I think he's going to end up being a much better player than he is right now, but I do think the Steelers (http://www.nfl.com/teams/pittsburghsteelers/profile?team=PIT) are a pretty good fit for him."

What does that even mean? He's not great now? Or he won't be great ever? How much of a better player? It is basically a non-sense statement that I can only translate as:

This gets a bad grade from me because the player won't dominate in 2017 so therefore the grade is blllllleeeeeee. However, said player may be really good in the future -- but screw that 2017 is all that matters?

By this logic, Aaron Rodgers was a bad pick and so were Troy Aikman, Petyon Manning, JJ Watt, and Troy Polamalu. But this jack-ass gets paid to watch football for a living and I have to go to work each day. Plus wasn't his old man the dude who got caught emailing porn and driving around without pants?

I read that too. Actually, if you continue on reading the whole thing, the argument is that basically, he'll get overpowered by NFL OTs, needs to learn how to widen his base, especially when running, and get faster as well. Basically, a lot of what i've been saying (except for widening his base).

The issue isn't that 2017 is all that matters. The issue is that you are buying the product in 2017. While you can speculate what that product will be worth in 2020, 2025, you still have to ask if it is worth the price for the product you are getting right now, with only hopes of what he might become. I also chuckled when I saw his draft-round grade. Again, pretty much exactly where I put him. Second round. (Specifically, I said third or fourth based on tape alone, but if he showed improved speed and strength in the combine, and impressed the coaches in the interviews, he was worth a second. Since the latter actually did happen, then it defaults to a second round grade).

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 04:39 PM
https://giant.gfycat.com/RightOccasionalAlpinegoat.gif

He makes the OT look pretty damn bad here.

http://giant.gfycat.com/UnripeInexperiencedKittiwake.gif

Here he just simply throws an OT to the ground with hand fighting.

http://giant.gfycat.com/BlueColossalIvorygull.gif

And to be fair and balanced, this is an example of what likely terrifies people about Watt. He gets locked up by a TE from some directional school. Not good.

- - - Updated - - -


I read that too. Actually, if you continue on reading the whole thing, the argument is that basically, he'll get overpowered by NFL OTs, needs to learn how to widen his base, especially when running, and get faster as well. Basically, a lot of what i've been saying (except for widening his base).

The issue isn't that 2017 is all that matters. The issue is that you are buying the product in 2017. While you can speculate what that product will be worth in 2020, 2025, you still have to ask if it is worth the price for the product you are getting right now, with only hopes of what he might become. I also chuckled when I saw his draft-round grade. Again, pretty much exactly where I put him. Second round. (Specifically, I said third or fourth based on tape alone, but if he showed improved speed and strength in the combine, and impressed the coaches in the interviews, he was worth a second. Since the latter actually did happen, then it defaults to a second round grade).

That's where I disagree. You are buying what you think/hope a player might become - especially in the first round. You basically get 5 years of a player for cheap AF if they pan out.

My thinking is this. You can invest in company that will return you 5% in year one but then just that 5% every year thereafter. Or you can invest in a company that will return 2.5% in year one, but most likely 10% every year after. Which company gets your money? Now, there really isn't a wrong answer - but I go with the second one almost every time.

Craic
04-28-2017, 04:48 PM
I was addressing everyone that has concerns about Watt as a player, not you individually. There are people in this thread and in other threads leading up to the draft that didn't believe Watt is a good enough player to take in the first round. I was just addressing that. I don't think what I said is negative in any way towards anybody. It's simply my opinion of a player.

Fair enough. That "please" on the end of my post reads as being snarky on a re-read, but I originally put it there specifically to make it not read snarky. Guess I failed that one. :chuckle:



As for your assessment on the here and now, I believe TJ Watt is a better player than Jarvis Jones right now. I believe if he's on the field next year or getting significant playing time that Watt will probably have more sacks in his rookie season than Jones did in his first few years with the Steelers. You looked at the tape of both players and saw someone equivalent to Jarvis Jones.

Not quite. Let me again explain the Jarvis Jones comment. It was focused specifically on him getting stymied by OTs with a semblance of technique and not having the ability to push through to the QB. Since we are looking for an edge rusher to do two things mainly, set the edge on running plays and pressure the QB on pass plays, that is why I called him Jarvis Jones 2.0 right now, because right now, he is not able to do that against OTs who have decent technique. That's what I meant.
------

As for being overly critical, actually, I went to watch the tape excited about the kid because of his lineage and what others were saying, but the tape didn't match the hype, IMO.


I believe TJ Watt is a better player than fourth year Jarvis Jones the second his big toe hits the field in Pittsburgh, and I think he has a huge upside. You also think he has a big upside, but just don't see enough in his game yet.
And actually, this is exactly what I meant with the Jarvis Jones comparison. Right now, he is exactly equal with Jones. His tape shows an inability to beat decent tackles to the QB and in the run plays I saw, was handled well by OTs with decent technique.


Such is life evaluating players.

:drink:


Such is the life of keyboard warriors like us. :wink02:

Craic
04-28-2017, 05:07 PM
https://giant.gfycat.com/RightOccasionalAlpinegoat.gif

He makes the OT look pretty damn bad here.

I don't see that at all. Watt gets to the inside, and then can't get release from the OT, who out powers him and drives him through the front of the pocket so the QB can step up and make the pass. At the end of that play, Watt has been driven completely out of position and can't contain the pocket. I would expect him to shed that block and stay on his side as he drives to the QB. In the NFL, that play ends up with Watt pancaked after the OT's dip move. Watch Watt's feet very closely and you can see where an NFL OT would have taken advantage of him and drove him straight into the ground.


http://giant.gfycat.com/UnripeInexperiencedKittiwake.gif

Here he just simply throws an OT to the ground with hand fighting.

That's not good handfighting. That's a OT that bends at the waist, overextended, and completely lost his block. This is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. I'm seeing this play and others like this one as great examples of Watt's ability, but no one is point out the horrible technique of the OT. When that is played against the next video with a OT that has decent technique, the difference is night and day. Here, he has the sack. In the next, he's stymied.

How many OTs in the NFL have horrible technique? THAT is what scares me.


http://giant.gfycat.com/BlueColossalIvorygull.gif

And to be fair and balanced, this is an example of what likely terrifies people about Watt. He gets locked up by a TE from some directional school. Not good.



Yep. And I saw that on a few different plays . . . and that was on his own highlight reel.


That's where I disagree. You are buying what you think/hope a player might become - especially in the first round. You basically get 5 years of a player for cheap AF if they pan out.

My thinking is this. You can invest in company that will return you 5% in year one but then just that 5% every year thereafter. Or you can invest in a company that will return 2.5% in year one, but most likely 10% every year after. Which company gets your money? Now, there really isn't a wrong answer - but I go with the second one almost every time.

True enough, but that company or player had better show enough in the prospectus to identify it as a very good investment. My point, and I think the point in that draft grade article as well, was that he hadn't shown in his prospectus to warrant his current price. Because, 10% most likely every year after is not what Watt shows in his current prospectus. To continue the analogy and use your percentages, My guess is 2.5% his first year, 3.5% or 4% his second year, 6-7 percent his third year, and then, possibly, 10% when he really hits his stride. Because it's going to take him a while to build the quick-twitch muscle he needs, and also the overall muscle he needs to stop being stymied. Then, he'll have to learn how to use those new tools.

Am I wrong? I sure hope so.

__________________________________________________ ________________

EDIT: Let me say this to his positive, however. I really like everything the kid is saying. He seems to have his head on his shoulders and is hungry to prove himself, but to do it in the right way. As a person, I'm really starting to like the kid. One thing I know won't be an issue with him . . . wasted talent. He's going to get every last ounce of use from the talent God gave him.

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 05:27 PM
If Watts beats the O lineman it's because the O lineman is terrible. If the O lineman beats Watts it's because Watts is terrible. I'm clear now.

steelcityboyz
04-28-2017, 06:15 PM
If Watts beats the O lineman it's because the O lineman is terrible. If the O lineman beats Watts it's because Watts is terrible. I'm clear now.:applaudit:

Mojouw
04-28-2017, 07:12 PM
EDITED BY MOJOUW FOR LENGTH

I actually really like and can see where you're coming from in all of your detailed and clear responses. Great stuff. I just happen to disagree - but I'm nowhere near any kinda knowledge on this stuff. Never played the game and never coached the game - total keyboard warrior!

BUT - in the clips I posted I do not see OT's that are ever in control of the situation. I see Watt as driving the action and the lineman responding to him. Could I be wrong? Most likely - but that is my take. Against Iowa, I see him punch the outside shoulder of the OT, like his trying to bend the corner, then disengage and swims inside. The OT has to bend and lunge to stay engaged and eventually loses control of the situation. Is Watt's technique any good on the play - doesn't look like it to me. Does he cross up his feet and get off-balance -- seems that way. But I still see Watt as the one making the decisions and forcing the OT to respond to him. Like I said, I really make this crap up as I go and shamelessly steal from others, but I would always rather have the player who makes other players respond to him.

Also, great discussion - hope everyone is having as much fun as I am! I mean three or more posts of a back and forth and no one has called anyone Hitler yet? I think we might set an internet record!

Craic
04-28-2017, 07:17 PM
If Watts beats the O lineman it's because the O lineman is terrible. If the O lineman beats Watts it's because Watts is terrible. I'm clear now.

Sigh.

Why do I even bother. (not to mention, the poster here ignores the positives I gave Watt earlier such as his bull rush that moved the OT who did come up too high, but Watt still did well. I guess it's easier to ignore all that for a snarky comment.)


I actually really like and can see where you're coming from in all of your detailed and clear responses. Great stuff. I just happen to disagree - but I'm nowhere near any kinda knowledge on this stuff. Never played the game and never coached the game - total keyboard warrior!

BUT - in the clips I posted I do not see OT's that are ever in control of the situation. I see Watt as driving the action and the lineman responding to him. Could I be wrong? Most likely - but that is my take.

Also, great discussion - hope everyone is having as much fun as I am! I mean three or more posts of a back and forth and no one has called anyone Hitler yet? I think we might set an internet record!

Wait, that's why. Because some people actually take time to read what I wrote and then check the tape. Thanks, Mojouw.

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 07:18 PM
Sigh.

Why do I even bother.



Wait, that's why. Because some people actually take time to read what I wrote and then check the tape. Thanks, Mojouw.
Some of us watched his tape BEFORE he was drafted ;)

Craic
04-28-2017, 07:27 PM
Some of us watched his tape BEFORE he was drafted ;)

I think you might have had some dust in your eye . . . . Speaking of which, is your house shaking as well with this windstorm?

pczach
04-28-2017, 08:58 PM
I actually really like and can see where you're coming from in all of your detailed and clear responses. Great stuff. I just happen to disagree - but I'm nowhere near any kinda knowledge on this stuff. Never played the game and never coached the game - total keyboard warrior!

BUT - in the clips I posted I do not see OT's that are ever in control of the situation. I see Watt as driving the action and the lineman responding to him. Could I be wrong? Most likely - but that is my take. Against Iowa, I see him punch the outside shoulder of the OT, like his trying to bend the corner, then disengage and swims inside. The OT has to bend and lunge to stay engaged and eventually loses control of the situation. Is Watt's technique any good on the play - doesn't look like it to me. Does he cross up his feet and get off-balance -- seems that way. But I still see Watt as the one making the decisions and forcing the OT to respond to him. Like I said, I really make this crap up as I go and shamelessly steal from others, but I would always rather have the player who makes other players respond to him.

Also, great discussion - hope everyone is having as much fun as I am! I mean three or more posts of a back and forth and no one has called anyone Hitler yet? I think we might set an internet record!

Hitler!

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 09:10 PM
I think you might have had some dust in your eye . . . . Speaking of which, is your house shaking as well with this windstorm?

Me and all the Steelers scouts and plenty of qualified analysts :D

Plenty of dust... lol. Gusts at close to 40mph every day.............

Craic
04-28-2017, 09:43 PM
Plenty of dust... lol. Gusts at close to 40mph every day.............

It's still blowing out here, but the house isn't shaking anymore like it was earlier. Once nice thing about it. . . there's a dairy about three blocks north. With this wind, it's blowing the smell East, so we get a reprieve for a while.

DesertSteel
04-28-2017, 09:56 PM
It's still blowing out here, but the house isn't shaking anymore like it was earlier. Once nice thing about it. . . there's a dairy about three blocks north. With this wind, it's blowing the smell East, so we get a reprieve for a while.
It's messing with my golf game, that's for sure!

Craic
04-28-2017, 09:59 PM
It's messing with my golf game, that's for sure!

Just make sure your drives go East! You'll do great! :chuckle: