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Mojouw
11-27-2016, 01:10 PM
From this article: http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/11/handicapping-recent-wins-put-steelers-full-schedule-context/

"Even with the win over Cleveland, Pittsburgh’s strength of victory is higher than New England’s and Dallas’ at the moment, so consider that."


From here: http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/11/steelers-playoff-probability-skyrocketing-entering-sunday/

" 538 (the prediction folks) has an even bigger jump, giving them a 72% chance of making the playoffs. That stems mostly off a 70% chance to win the AFC North..."


Here is one that will be less popular, but worth a read: http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-opinions-reactions-news-updates/2016/11/27/13598242/why-mike-tomlin-having-1-playoff-win-in-5-years-is-a-meaningless

"...only three teams have made the playoffs more than the Steelers since Tomlin took control of the team in 2007. Those three teams are the New England Patriots (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/new-england-patriots), Green Bay Packers (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/green-bay-packers) and the Indianapolis Colts (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/indianapolis-colts)."

"Pittsburgh may only have one win in the postseason in the last 5 years, but only 11 teams in the league have more than that."

"15 other franchises, or nearly half of the league, have failed to win one postseason game in the last 5 years..."


"Tomlin's Steelers are 6th best in playoff victories since his tenure began as well."


This is not meant as a "Tomlin is GREAT!" or "Anyone who criticizes the Steelers and/or the coaching staff is dumb!" kind of post. But, only want to point out that despiteall the things that we can complain about, the 2016 Steelers control their own playoff destiny and for much of the last decade we have been watching one of the most consistently competitive teams in the entire league.

Consider the following for the last 1/4 of the season:
1. Prior to breaking his fingers, Coates was not perfect but was more than adequate as a deep threat. Those fingers got to heal up at some point. He is averaging over 20 yards/catch for the season. That'd be the "missing" element to push the offense into the stratosphere.

2. Ladarius Green is going to be incorporated into the offense and do Ladarius Green things - which are things that we have seen no Steelers TE do before. Dude is a match-up nightmare. Once he gets fully into game shape and incorporated into the offense, he is going to earn the hell out of that $4 millon cap #.

3. Eli Rogers is finally "getting it". Blocking, staying involved despite not getting passes, reading the same coverages as Roethlisberger. Another weapon on offense.

4. Hargarve, Burns, Davis, Dupree, and MAYBE Gilbert should all be getting better as the season wears on. Look at the plays Davis made in the Colts game and honestly tell me you want Robert Golden holding down that spot. As Davis and Burns stabilize in their roles - Mitchell gets better too. The more he doesn't have to cover for the youngsters, the more he can sit back and head-hunt. Colts game is a great example - I thought he made TY Hilton dead. Like I said in another thread, Dupree makes me giddy. Runs somewhere between a young Timmons and Shazier and is built like DE. Imagine all the goofy LB formations Butler has been running but without the useless piece of Jarvis Jones or Chickillo filling one of the slots?

5. I have no real idea what the defense will do in the remaining quarter of the season. But think about this, now that most of the projected contributors are healthy - the two most un-athletic members of the top 13 or so guys are William Gay and Lawrence Timmons. Think about that - those are some pretty good NFL football players and I would argue that there are 11 guys ready to contribute on defense that have more playmaking potential than those two. Now do those other players have the experience, discipline, and stamina to make those plays over the next handful of games? No idea - but it will keep me glued to my television!

teegre
11-27-2016, 06:12 PM
1. BB-to-Coates is currently 0/13. It can only get better.

2. They are consciously trying to get Green involved. Once he's 100%, we will have our version of Jimmy Graham.

3. Indeed.

4 & 5. This defense is young, and young is inconsistent.

16, 16, 34...
14, 13, 30...
27 to the AFC #2 seed, 14...
35 to the NFC #1 seed, 9, 7...

Once they become more experienced, they'll remain below 21ppg.

Mojouw
11-27-2016, 07:40 PM
1. BB-to-Coates is currently 0/13. It can only get better.

2. They are consciously trying to get Green involved. Once he's 100%, we will have our version of Jimmy Graham.

3. Indeed.

4 & 5. This defense is young, and young is inconsistent.

16, 16, 34...
14, 13, 30...
27 to the AFC #2 seed, 14...
35 to the NFC #1 seed, 9, 7...

Once they become more experienced, they'll remain below 21ppg.

That's a heck of a point about the defense. They stay below 21 ppg and this offense does what I think we both expect it to - that's 8-10 points per game differential. That's SB worthy.

zulater
11-27-2016, 09:32 PM
We all know they're capable of winning the division. But will they? It most likely will come down to the Ravens game. Harbaugh has our number. If we don't change that on Christmas you can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

pczach
11-27-2016, 09:40 PM
From this article: http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/11/handicapping-recent-wins-put-steelers-full-schedule-context/

"Even with the win over Cleveland, Pittsburgh’s strength of victory is higher than New England’s and Dallas’ at the moment, so consider that."


From here: http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/11/steelers-playoff-probability-skyrocketing-entering-sunday/

" 538 (the prediction folks) has an even bigger jump, giving them a 72% chance of making the playoffs. That stems mostly off a 70% chance to win the AFC North..."


Here is one that will be less popular, but worth a read: http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/pittsburgh-steelers-opinions-reactions-news-updates/2016/11/27/13598242/why-mike-tomlin-having-1-playoff-win-in-5-years-is-a-meaningless

"...only three teams have made the playoffs more than the Steelers since Tomlin took control of the team in 2007. Those three teams are the New England Patriots (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/new-england-patriots), Green Bay Packers (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/green-bay-packers) and the Indianapolis Colts (http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/indianapolis-colts)."

"Pittsburgh may only have one win in the postseason in the last 5 years, but only 11 teams in the league have more than that."

"15 other franchises, or nearly half of the league, have failed to win one postseason game in the last 5 years..."


"Tomlin's Steelers are 6th best in playoff victories since his tenure began as well."


This is not meant as a "Tomlin is GREAT!" or "Anyone who criticizes the Steelers and/or the coaching staff is dumb!" kind of post. But, only want to point out that despiteall the things that we can complain about, the 2016 Steelers control their own playoff destiny and for much of the last decade we have been watching one of the most consistently competitive teams in the entire league.

Consider the following for the last 1/4 of the season:
1. Prior to breaking his fingers, Coates was not perfect but was more than adequate as a deep threat. Those fingers got to heal up at some point. He is averaging over 20 yards/catch for the season. That'd be the "missing" element to push the offense into the stratosphere.

2. Ladarius Green is going to be incorporated into the offense and do Ladarius Green things - which are things that we have seen no Steelers TE do before. Dude is a match-up nightmare. Once he gets fully into game shape and incorporated into the offense, he is going to earn the hell out of that $4 millon cap #.

3. Eli Rogers is finally "getting it". Blocking, staying involved despite not getting passes, reading the same coverages as Roethlisberger. Another weapon on offense.

4. Hargarve, Burns, Davis, Dupree, and MAYBE Gilbert should all be getting better as the season wears on. Look at the plays Davis made in the Colts game and honestly tell me you want Robert Golden holding down that spot. As Davis and Burns stabilize in their roles - Mitchell gets better too. The more he doesn't have to cover for the youngsters, the more he can sit back and head-hunt. Colts game is a great example - I thought he made TY Hilton dead. Like I said in another thread, Dupree makes me giddy. Runs somewhere between a young Timmons and Shazier and is built like DE. Imagine all the goofy LB formations Butler has been running but without the useless piece of Jarvis Jones or Chickillo filling one of the slots?

5. I have no real idea what the defense will do in the remaining quarter of the season. But think about this, now that most of the projected contributors are healthy - the two most un-athletic members of the top 13 or so guys are William Gay and Lawrence Timmons. Think about that - those are some pretty good NFL football players and I would argue that there are 11 guys ready to contribute on defense that have more playmaking potential than those two. Now do those other players have the experience, discipline, and stamina to make those plays over the next handful of games? No idea - but it will keep me glued to my television!

The links give something that is in short supply around here......perspective.

That's a great breakdown of things. Everything you list in your five points are spot on. There are plenty of unknowns, but the one thing I do know is that there is a lot of athleticism and talent on that roster right now. Much of it is young, but you are beginning to see the lights go on in the football minds of many of these players. The rest of this year is going to be exciting. I truly believe that great things can still happen this year. I also know that I can't wait to see this team next year, with a complete and healthy roster. They could be flat out scary good.

Great post!

Mojouw
11-27-2016, 09:46 PM
We all know they're capable of winning the division. But will they? It most likely will come down to the Ravens game. Harbaugh has our number. If we don't change that on Christmas you can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/game_query.cgi?tm1=pit&tm2=rav&yr=all

Due for a win?

teegre
11-27-2016, 09:46 PM
We all know they're capable of winning the division. But will they? It most likely will come down to the Ravens game. Harbaugh has our number. If we don't change that on Christmas you can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

Harbaugh has owned the Steelers in the regular season, but it's almost a complete 180 in the playoffs (where he's NEVER beaten the Steelers).

Since the Christmas Day game will essentially be a playoff game, I expect the Steelers to win that one handily.

Mojouw
11-27-2016, 10:03 PM
So the latest sequence in the Sunday night game. Chiefs up 6 and are forced to punt. Broncos returner muffs the punt (his second of the night) and the Chiefs recover. First and 10 with a chance to move the ball and either bleed clock or put the dagger in the Broncos.

1st down - penalty on the offensive line
2nd down - sack
3rd down - play clock runs out and KC burns a timeout in a close game.
3rd down part 2 - dink pass underneath far short of the needed yardage
4th down - Punt.

So this raises the issue - is KC an undisciplined team? They took a penalty and a sack to sabotage a crucial drive right away. Or are the Denver special teams a total dumpster fire because they have fumbled away a punt and given up a kick return for a TD (at this point KC's margin of victory)?

My point, is that if we start applying the same standard we all do to the Steelers across the league, we find that every single team fails that standard. So either the entire NFL is full of poorly coached and under-prepared teams OR the standard is flawed...

And then the KC secondary absolutely collapsed. Chiefs repeatedly sent everyone they could think of and their secondary didn't hold up in man coverage. Who the heck is Benny Fowler? Sound familiar?

tube517
11-27-2016, 10:07 PM
Harbaugh has owned the Steelers in the regular season, but it's almost a complete 180 in the playoffs (where he's NEVER beaten the Steelers).

Since the Christmas Day game will essentially be a playoff game, I expect the Steelers to win that one handily.

He beat us in the 2014 wild card game when we had a couch potato and a practice squad RB having to sub for an injured Bell. His lone playoff win vs the Steelers.


I think we'll win on Christmas Day. The Steelers play all the 3 major holidays (T-giving, Christmas, New Years Day) and they (Deebo) will be/are pissed.

teegre
11-27-2016, 10:46 PM
He beat us in the 2014 wild card game when we had a couch potato and a practice squad RB having to sub for an injured Bell. His lone playoff win vs the Steelers.


I think we'll win on Christmas Day. The Steelers play all the 3 major holidays (T-giving, Christmas, New Years Day) and they (Deebo) will be/are pissed.

Oh duh!!! :doh:
I had erased that game from my mind.


Just like the 2010 Packers. :wink02:

slippy
11-28-2016, 12:17 PM
and since 1992, i count only five years where the steelers were not in the playoff hunt in december.

i call that being entertained.

86WARD
11-28-2016, 02:31 PM
11 teams have more playoff wins than the Steelers? Lol...that's a lot...

Hawkman
11-28-2016, 05:05 PM
11 teams have more playoff wins than the Steelers? Lol...that's a lot...

.....but no team has as many Lombardis!

JimHarbaugh'ssoakedtissue
11-29-2016, 11:06 AM
As for being positive Pitt will probably win this week and just win the rest of the division games and they got the division. I have a bad feeling about the Buffalo game but expect them to lose one more though. 10-6 and the division title will work.