TPOP: The Meandering Thoughts of an Indecisive Mock Drafter

[teegre]

Here is the mock draft that I submitted to The Point of Pittsburgh. It's a bit long-winded... but, a necessary evil in order to hash out exactly who the picks will be.

The Meandering Thoughts of an Indecisive Mock Drafter
by Tiger Rowan

Most years, when I predict who the Steelers will select with their first pick in the NFL draft, my prediction comes easily for me. Usually I lock in on a player and, right or wrong, I feel 100% confident that is the player who the Steelers will draft. Mind you, I have not gotten a first-round prognosis correct since David DeCastro (2011), but that does not change the fact that going into each of the previous drafts I was completely locked onto a player.

Fast-forward to this current off-season where for several months, Karl Joseph (strong safety, West Virginia) has been the player who I have had my mind set on being Pittsburgh’s first-round pick. I have heard ESPN and NFL Network analysts discuss many names; I have read various rumors about the Steelers being linked to certain other players; but all along, my gut has told me that the pick is going to be Karl Joseph. Even when the NFL re-checked his knee and stated that Joseph would not be able to participate during training camp, I justified the pick by saying that Robert Golden was re-signed specifically to start the first few games of the season (until Joseph is ready).

Yes, that would be known as “rationalizing”.

Then on Tuesday morning, I woke up and my gut told me that Andrew Billings was going to be available for Pittsburgh’s first-round pick.


Read more:
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/the-meandering-thoughts-of-an-indecisive-steelers-mock-drafter/

Feel free to rip it apart. :lol:

[Mojouw]

I like it.

It would be a big departure for the Steelers in drafting Nassib. Do you see him coming in and simply being deployed as a pass rush specialist or do you think they would try and stand him up?

[BengalGirl5150]

Ha! Great mock "draft" if u can call it that. Joseph in the first round??? How about picking someone who can actually play! But I guess someone from a hillbilly school would fit right in with all the THUGS and drug addicts on ur team. So nevermind, good pick!

No cornerback til round 6 lol, are u kidding me????? u are gonna get SMOKED twice a year by Andy and A.J.! The Stealers should be glad they don't have u as their GM. But I used SMOKED on purpose, b/c at least our best receiver can keep the bong out of his hands for 20 minutes. In case u didn't get it the first time. Puff puff pass! LOL!

[Steelman]

The link won't open, can't tell if it's server overload or a bad URL.

[Born2Steel]

Interesting to me is that you went with smaller players at almost every pick. Joseph is smallest of the top safeties, Hargrave, Young, and Irvin are all smaller too. Hargrave, I believe will be a good player for somebody. Maybe Young too, although I would not want a 5'9" CB since we already have 2 good slot cover guys. Returns may be his spot. I don't know much about Nassib. I will have to check on him. Sounds like a possibility there.

[Texasteel]

Ha! Great mock "draft" if u can call it that. Joseph in the first round??? How about picking someone who can actually play! But I guess someone from a hillbilly school would fit right in with all the THUGS and drug addicts on ur team. So nevermind, good pick!

No cornerback til round 6 lol, are u kidding me????? u are gonna get SMOKED twice a year by Andy and A.J.! The Stealers should be glad they don't have u as their GM. But I used SMOKED on purpose, b/c at least our best receiver can keep the bong out of his hands for 20 minutes. In case u didn't get it the first time. Puff puff pass! LOL!

You are welcome here to express you thoughts, it's good to hear a different point of view. If your here just insult and try to pick a fight with someone please don't.

[hawaiiansteeler]

You are welcome here to express you thoughts, it's good to hear a different point of view. If your here just insult and try to pick a fight with someone please don't.

you really can't blame BengalGirl for being bitter like that.

I would feel the same way if my favorite team hadn't won a playoff game in 25 years...

[teegre]

I like it.

It would be a big departure for the Steelers in drafting Nassib. Do you see him coming in and simply being deployed as a pass rush specialist or do you think they would try and stand him up?

Colbert's comments about selecting players... not sticking to "only one scheme"... that comment came out around the time that they met with Nassib at the Combine. The timing makes me think that they were referring to him.

Now, where to play him. I do not see him being a part of the DE rotation, and I do not see him being an OLB conversion/project. I truly see him as a player who comes in on passing downs, and is told to "Get the QB."

[pczach]

Good article teeg!

We all grind over our mock drafts, and we all fall in love with certain players. That's what makes the draft so special and so personal to all of us that follow it so closely and invest so much time in evaluating players and trying to figure out who may go to our team.

I like a lot of the players you have mocked to the Steelers. I'm not sure that Ochi and Benenoch will be there in the seventh round, but overall it's a solid mock with good players.

Now that the Steelers have put the idea that they may take a WR early in this draft out there, I am hoping that a team that really wants one of the top WR's is willing to move up to trade with the Steelers for their #25 pick. If a truly great player falls to them, or they player they rate very high is still there, I think they'll stay put and take that player. If they believe they can move back and still get a player they really want, it's a no-brainer to acquire additional picks if they can find a dance partner.

Keep up the good work brother!

[teegre]

Interesting to me is that you went with smaller players at almost every pick. Joseph is smallest of the top safeties, Hargrave, Young, and Irvin are all smaller too. Hargrave, I believe will be a good player for somebody. Maybe Young too, although I would not want a 5'9" CB since we already have 2 good slot cover guys. Returns may be his spot. I don't know much about Nassib. I will have to check on him. Sounds like a possibility there.

I had not really noticed that. Interesting.



Joseph is almost the exact same size as Troy Polamalu (give or take 5 lbs).

Hargrave weighs less than most NTs, but for what the Steelers need (20 snaps at NT, 20 snaps at DE), he is the perfect size. McClendon was actually more productive when he was around 300 (as opposed ot when he ballooned up to 330).

Young is teeny-tiny. There is no way around that. But, he plays/hits hard.

Irvin is indeed lighter than optimal, but he runs hard. The few times that I saw him, he was not avoiding contact; he plowed right into defenders. You know... the opposite of Dri Archer.

SUMMATION:
I guess that the theme could be size... but, I prefer to say that I chose guys who hit/run/play hard. :wink02:

[Born2Steel]

"Opposite of Archer". LOL!!!! What a waste of a jersey number that guy turned out to be. Last time we follow the Al Davis criteria of drafting, I hope. Archer was fast!!! Did you see how fast he got done with his career?

Nassib could get big. On a 6'7" frame, he could become massive if he commits to the weight room. One thing that troubles me is the description of skinny legs. You would expect that on 6'7", so to make that a focus on his eval seems interesting.

I love the Hargrave pick. I believe he will turn out to be a good player for somebody. Maybe us.

I just don't like small corners. Personal preference I guess.

[pczach]

I had not really noticed that. Interesting.



Joseph is almost the exact same size as Troy Polamalu (give or take 5 lbs).

Hargrave weighs less than most NTs, but for what the Steelers need (20 snaps at NT, 20 snaps at DE), he is the perfect size. McClendon was actually more productive when he was around 300 (as opposed ot when he ballooned up to 330).

Young is teeny-tiny. There is no way around that. But, he plays/hits hard.

Irvin is indeed lighter than optimal, but he runs hard. The few times that I saw him, he was not avoiding contact; he plowed right into defenders. You know... the opposite of Dri Archer.

SUMMATION:
I guess that the theme could be size... but, I prefer to say that I chose guys who hit/run/play hard. :wink02:


Some might say some of your players are undersized but teams are looking for different traits and skillsets than they were just a few years ago. Speed, athleticism, versatility, rushing the passer as a DT, and coverage skills at S and LB are more important than ever before.

You may not have been consciously thinking about it that way, but your player choices reflect the needs of teams looking for the modern prototypical player playing under the new rules of the NFL. I think more teams are willing to give up a little size for speed, athleticism, and explosiveness.

It makes total sense.

[teegre]

Good article teeg!

We all grind over our mock drafts, and we all fall in love with certain players. That's what makes the draft so special and so personal to all of us that follow it so closely and invest so much time in evaluating players and trying to figure out who may go to our team.

I like a lot of the players you have mocked to the Steelers. I'm not sure that Ochi and Benenoch will be there in the seventh round, but overall it's a solid mock with good players.

Now that the Steelers have put the idea that they may take a WR early in this draft out there, I am hoping that a team that really wants one of the top WR's is willing to move up to trade with the Steelers for their #25 pick. If a truly great player falls to them, or they player they rate very high is still there, I think they'll stay put and take that player. If they believe they can move back and still get a player they really want, it's a no-brainer to acquire additional picks if they can find a dance partner.

Keep up the good work brother!

Thanks, brother. I appreciate the kind words.

Fall in love with certain players??? What??? That is crazy talk... and my Matt Elam FatHead is proof of that. :nod:

Ochi will probably be gone, but I could not rationalize taking him in R4. If I were to veer from the Ervin pick, it was definitely going to be either Cyrus Jones or Jonathan Jones. As far as Benenoch goes... I honestly just took his name off of the Steelers visits list. I knew/know nothing about him. But, hey, it was a R7 comp pick... and it beats throwing darts at names. :lol:

TRADING BACK:
I am hoping that Arizona or Denver wants to trade up (for a QB). Then, the Steelers could take Joseph right before the teams at the top of R2 can get a shot at him (Dal, SD, Balt); Joseph will not make it past pick 40. Joseph plus an extra R3 pick would be very nice.

- - - Updated - - -


Some might say some of your players are undersized but teams are looking for different traits and skillsets than they were just a few years ago. Speed, athleticism, versatility, rushing the passer as a DT, and coverage skills at S and LB are more important than ever before.

You may not have been consciously thinking about it that way, but your player choices reflect the needs of teams looking for the modern prototypical player playing under the new rules of the NFL. I think more teams are willing to give up a little size for speed, athleticism, and explosiveness.

It makes total sense.

So... subconsciously, I am a draft genius. Nice. :lol:

Really though, what you wrote is 100% correct. The thumper ILB (Hightower) is being phased our, and replaced by the quicker ILBs (Shazier, David, Kendricks).

[Psycho Ward 86]

thats an awesome draft teegre. however, i would draft victor ochi in the 4th round instead of tyler ervin. And tyler ervin i would hope is still there in the 7th

[hawaiiansteeler]

Then on Tuesday morning, I woke up and my gut told me that Andrew Billings was going to be available for Pittsburgh’s first-round pick.


uh-oh, always follow your gut...:rulez:

[teegre]

thats an awesome draft teegre. however, i would draft victor ochi in the 4th round instead of tyler ervin. And tyler ervin i would hope is still there in the 7th

I blame my dyscalculia. :lol:

[Mojouw]

Some might say some of your players are undersized but teams are looking for different traits and skillsets than they were just a few years ago. Speed, athleticism, versatility, rushing the passer as a DT, and coverage skills at S and LB are more important than ever before.

You may not have been consciously thinking about it that way, but your player choices reflect the needs of teams looking for the modern prototypical player playing under the new rules of the NFL. I think more teams are willing to give up a little size for speed, athleticism, and explosiveness.

It makes total sense.

Just wait. Marsha is going to retire in New England in like 2 years after another deep playoff run. The Evil Emperor will then unveil his latest "genius" plan - the Power I. He'll draft the 2018 or so version of that early 90's all Beef Cowboys line and get some big dirtball running back to put behind it. They will steamroll all these light fronts. Media will declare him an "innovative genius".

In all seriousness though, the pendulum will swing back at some point. It always does. Won't look totally the same, but at some point, someone, somewhere, will come up with an update on "3 yards and a cloud of dust" as a way to put these warp speed defenses off balance.

[Born2Steel]

Question about #25. If Myles Jack does fall, and it continues to the Steelers pick, you now have a choice between Joseph coming off a non-contact, season ending knee injury and questions about when can he play now, AND Jack, who's coming off a knee injury that has GMs wondering how long he will play once he does get back.

What makes this intriguing is something Bill Parcells once said about a player with similar questions. He said all players are short term. With FA a player is only yours thru the current contract and then re-signed. So you can get a perfectly healthy player for 3 years, then lose him to FA. OR, get a player that plays for 3 years but you lose to an injury. For the team, that's the same thing. So why not take a guy with a possible career threatening situation if he's the best player available on the board.

[teegre]

Question about #25. If Myles Jack does fall, and it continues to the Steelers pick, you now have a choice between Joseph coming off a non-contact, season ending knee injury and questions about when can he play now, AND Jack, who's coming off a knee injury that has GMs wondering how long he will play once he does get back.

What makes this intriguing is something Bill Parcells once said about a player with similar questions. He said all players are short term. With FA a player is only yours thru the current contract and then re-signed. So you can get a perfectly healthy player for 3 years, then lose him to FA. OR, get a player that plays for 3 years but you lose to an injury. For the team, that's the same thing. So why not take a guy with a possible career threatening situation if he's the best player available on the board.

Jack

100 times out of 100.

[Mojouw]

Question about #25. If Myles Jack does fall, and it continues to the Steelers pick, you now have a choice between Joseph coming off a non-contact, season ending knee injury and questions about when can he play now, AND Jack, who's coming off a knee injury that has GMs wondering how long he will play once he does get back.

What makes this intriguing is something Bill Parcells once said about a player with similar questions. He said all players are short term. With FA a player is only yours thru the current contract and then re-signed. So you can get a perfectly healthy player for 3 years, then lose him to FA. OR, get a player that plays for 3 years but you lose to an injury. For the team, that's the same thing. So why not take a guy with a possible career threatening situation if he's the best player available on the board.

Jack. I bet on the fact that the same docs who coaxed NFL football out of Spence's knee can do the same with Jack.

[Psycho Ward 86]

I would take Jack only if we were able to ditch Timmons somehow and I just dont see it.

No one would want to trade for him with that contract.

[teegre]

I would take Jack only if we were able to ditch Timmons somehow and I just dont see it.

No one would want to trade for him with that contract.

You're going to have to pay Timmons' contact anyway... whether you draft Jack, Joseph, or Billings.

If Timmons sticks around, they don't have to force Jack to play right away (Jack can fully heal).

[Psycho Ward 86]

You're going to have to pay Timmons' contact anyway... whether you draft Jack, Joseph, or Billings.

If Timmons sticks around, they don't have to force Jack to play right away (Jack can fully heal).

Ive only read that the medical concerns were long term, but he would be able to play this season. That would be a ridiculous waste of cap space, having both Timmons and Myles Jack.

[steelreserve]

I don't think Jack falls past the teens even in that case, but here's the thing. As I understand it, the worry about his injury is not about fully recovering, it's about it being a degenerative thing after that. Like, microfracture surgery a year or two down the road, becoming the Greg Oden of middle linebackers. If it was just the draft pick, then maybe worth rolling the dice; if it's also getting rid of an existing starter, even though not in his prime, then I'd have to think twice.

[st33lersguy]

Very interesting draft. I like Karl Joseph as a player but am concerned about his durability. How will he hold up in the NFL? Hargrave could be a real dynamo. CB in the 6th round is not ideal but the Steelers have waited til day 3 before to get a corner and a healthy Joseph and Hargrave playing like he did at South Carolina State will help the improve the defense as much as a no. 1 CB anyway.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Very interesting draft. I like Karl Joseph as a player but am concerned about his durability. How will he hold up in the NFL? Hargrave could be a real dynamo. CB in the 6th round is not ideal but the Steelers have waited til day 3 before to get a corner and a healthy Joseph and Hargrave playing like he did at South Carolina State will help the improve the defense as much as a no. 1 CB anyway.

Kalan Reed would be a better late round option. Look at his film and read up on him. Dude is going to ball in the NFL and make everyone regret it. He even did well against Amari Cooper last season

[Mojouw]

I don't think Jack falls past the teens even in that case, but here's the thing. As I understand it, the worry about his injury is not about fully recovering, it's about it being a degenerative thing after that. Like, microfracture surgery a year or two down the road, becoming the Greg Oden of middle linebackers. If it was just the draft pick, then maybe worth rolling the dice; if it's also getting rid of an existing starter, even though not in his prime, then I'd have to think twice.

That's a really good point. Latest word is that teams might require Jack to sign some sort of injury waiver. However, this could all be some messed up smokescreen less than 24 hours from the draft.

[teegre]

That would be a ridiculous waste of cap space, having both Timmons and Myles Jack.

I disagree.

By that logic, if Hargreaves were available, we should pass on him... because we are already paying for Cortez Allen.

The money owed to Timmons is already spent; there's no getting it back. Play Jack, Timmons backs him up... either way, money-wise: taking Jack or not taking Jack, the money is the same... but, in one scenario, you don't have an insanely good ILB.

[BlackAndGold]

They won't even look at Jack, unless he feel to rounds 3 or 4.

He already said he'll need Microfracture surgery "down the line"(mostly meaning it's bad now). Pass!!!!

[teegre]

I don't think Jack falls past the teens even in that case, but here's the thing. As I understand it, the worry about his injury is not about fully recovering, it's about it being a degenerative thing after that. Like, microfracture surgery a year or two down the road, becoming the Greg Oden of middle linebackers. If it was just the draft pick, then maybe worth rolling the dice; if it's also getting rid of an existing starter, even though not in his prime, then I'd have to think twice.

I think of Jack as a player who leaves as a free agent in 5 years.

Think of him as Chad Brown.

[teegre]

They won't even look at Jack, unless he feel to rounds 3 or 4.

He already said he'll need Microfracture surgery "down the line"(mostly meaning it's bad now). Pass!!!!

I need some clarification.

Are you you saying he's going to drop into R3? I've heard that about Jaylon Smith, but not about Myles Jack.

[BlackAndGold]

I need some clarification.

Are you you saying he's going to drop into R3? I've heard that about Jaylon Smith, but not about Myles Jack.

I'm not sure where he goes honestly. I was meaning that I can't see the team taking him, unless he fell to rounds 3-4

725449261400215552

It'll be interesting to see where he falls.

[teegre]

I'm not sure where he goes honestly. I was meaning that I can't see the team taking him, unless he fell to rounds 3-4

725449261400215552

It'll be interesting to see where he falls.

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

[BlackAndGold]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

His cartilage and bone have begun to separate. Very possible neither of those happen.

Some team will take a chance on him, can't see it being the Steelers.

[teegre]

uh-oh, always follow your gut...:rulez:

True... my gut says that Billings will be there.

But, my gut also says that Joseph will be the pick (over Billings).

[Born2Steel]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

This. This is where I started the offseason and where I still sit on draft day 1. These Steelers are ready to win it NOW. We are only a player or 2 from that #7, IMO. Adding a player like Jack, even for next season only, or for 2-5 seasons, is what it takes to get that damn trophy, I'm all in. That's why I'm banking pretty hard on Billings or Butler at 25 and hoping the next 2 picks produce quality backups at worst. We are very close. No need to get fancy and analytical, just get the best football player and let's go get that next ring.

[steelreserve]

Would you rather have...
3 years of an All Pro?... or... 8 years of pretty good?

Personally, I'd rather have a different player at a different position - where the question is "Would you rather have a good player, or more Cam Thomas style horseshit?" See, that improvement helps us more than going from pretty-good to star. At least the original guy was pretty good.



True... my gut says that Billings will be there.

But, my gut also says that Joseph will be the pick (over Billings).

Don't hold your breath. I'm lacing up my dog-kicking boots for when we take the sixth-best outside linebacker with Billings, Joseph, and what the hell, Alexander and Jackson ALL still on the board.

"He has amazing raw ability and just needs a little polish to bring his game to the NFL. When a player like that falls to you, like, two years out of three, then sure, you can count on us to take the bait."

[SteelMember]

"He has amazing raw ability and just needs a little polish to bring his game to the NFL. When a player like that falls to you, like, two years out of three, then sure, you can count on us to take the bait."

Jason Worilds has a brother?

[steelreserve]

Jason Worilds has a brother?

Yeah, his name is Jarvis Durpee.

[SteelMember]

Yeah, his name is Jarvis Durpee.

I'll give you Jarvis. He's underwhelmed. No argument from me there, but Bud should get another year before we discard him on the LB scrapheap. And when healthy, Shazier has been really good. So were 50%... not particularly a good number for your 1st rounder, but still not near Cleveland suck.

[Shoes]

Nice work, TR. I could live with that draft! :chuckle:

[Psycho Ward 86]

I disagree.

By that logic, if Hargreaves were available, we should pass on him... because we are already paying for Cortez Allen.

The money owed to Timmons is already spent; there's no getting it back. Play Jack, Timmons backs him up... either way, money-wise: taking Jack or not taking Jack, the money is the same... but, in one scenario, you don't have an insanely good ILB.

What are you talking about? Cortez Allen's cap hit is way smaller than Timmons cap hit. And cant we pass most of his contract to a team if we hypothetically traded him? Except nobody is going to want a guy coming off an injury season, about to hit 30, and has been starting seasons slow for a while now.

You dont pay guys $10 million a year to warm the bench. Thats ludicrous

[teegre]

What are you talking about? Cortez Allen's cap hit is way smaller than Timmons cap hit. And cant we pass most of his contract to a team if we hypothetically traded him? Except nobody is going to want a guy coming off an injury season, about to hit 30, and has been starting seasons slow for a while now.

You dont pay guys $10 million a year to warm the bench. Thats ludicrous


The amount is not really the issue; the situations are similar because both players have already been paid. There's no getting that money back. They cut Allen... they aren't getting that money back, but they could still draft a CB. They can cut Timmons (or keep him)... they aren't getting that money back, but they could still draft an ILB.

[The majority of Timmons' cap hit is his signing bonus... which does not transfer to another team.]

[teegre]

Let me use a different example.

The Vikings had Jake Reed and Chris Carter... and they STILL drafted Randy Moss.

Shazier might be Chris Carter, but Timmons is no longer Jake Reed.


Even if Timmons was... I'd still take Jack (and figure out where to play him during training camp).

[steelreserve]

I'll give you Jarvis. He's underwhelmed. No argument from me there, but Bud should get another year before we discard him on the LB scrapheap. And when healthy, Shazier has been really good. So were 50%... not particularly a good number for your 1st rounder, but still not near Cleveland suck.

I didn't mean to imply Dupree is a "bust" at this point - it is way too soon for that. We do, however, seem to have spent an inordinate amount of attention on the OLB position to still not have anyone who's better than average.

[Mojouw]

I didn't mean to imply Dupree is a "bust" at this point - it is way too soon for that. We do, however, seem to have spent an inordinate amount of attention on the OLB position to still not have anyone who's better than average.

http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2016/04/27/a-look-back-at-the-steelers-drafts-under-tomlin-and-colbert/

3rd behind CB and WR and one selection ahead of ILB and RB. Only 2 more selections at OLB than DT and OT. So not sure if inordinate is quite the right term. Unfortunate might be better. When a 3-4 team "misses" on an OLB pick (Jones and arguably Worilds - other misses have not mattered as much because existing players on the roster were performing well) and there is no entrenched adequate starter, you typically have to burn through a lot of other picks in subsequent drafts trying to make up for it.

[steelreserve]

http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2016/04/27/a-look-back-at-the-steelers-drafts-under-tomlin-and-colbert/

3rd behind CB and WR and one selection ahead of ILB and RB. Only 2 more selections at OLB than DT and OT. So not sure if inordinate is quite the right term. Unfortunate might be better. When a 3-4 team "misses" on an OLB pick (Jones and arguably Worilds - other misses have not mattered as much because existing players on the roster were performing well) and there is no entrenched adequate starter, you typically have to burn through a lot of other picks in subsequent drafts trying to make up for it.

If you look at ALL picks, that's what you get, but how many of those CBs and WRs were in the middle and late rounds? Almost all of them. DL and interior offensive linemen we've used very few high picks but when we do it, man do we tend to find the good ones. I have no idea how we keep doing what we're doing with receivers, but we're either very good or very lucky.

I remember doing this exercise last year and something like 14 of the last 16 picks in the first and second rounds had been linebackers and linemen.

With the pass rushers in particular, we've been spamming linebackers with very high picks, and currently have very little to show for it. As of now, with picks in R1, R1 and R2 at OLB, we have roughly the same yield as with the fuck-it TEs we drafted in R5, R7 and R7. That's like our Achilles' heel of drafting in the early rounds, and DBs are the Achilles heel of the late rounds - so if that's what we're going to get out of it, I'd rather we focus on the DBs where the OLBs have been, and the OLBs where the DBs have been, and maybe we'll have better luck with one of them.

[Mojouw]

If you look at ALL picks, that's what you get, but how many of those CBs and WRs were in the middle and late rounds? Almost all of them. DL and interior offensive linemen we've used very few high picks but when we do it, man do we tend to find the good ones. I have no idea how we keep doing what we're doing with receivers, but we're either very good or very lucky.

I remember doing this exercise last year and something like 14 of the last 16 picks in the first and second rounds had been linebackers and linemen.

With the pass rushers in particular, we've been spamming linebackers with very high picks, and currently have very little to show for it. As of now, with picks in R1, R1 and R2 at OLB, we have roughly the same yield as with the fuck-it TEs we drafted in R5, R7 and R7. That's like our Achilles' heel of drafting in the early rounds, and DBs are the Achilles heel of the late rounds - so if that's what we're going to get out of it, I'd rather we focus on the DBs where the OLBs have been, and the OLBs where the DBs have been, and maybe we'll have better luck with one of them.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/pit/draft.htm

But basically, none of that is really the case...? Or maybe I am understanding you wrong. The only difference between OLB and CB is Woodley, Harrison, and Worilds all left the starting ranks recently, the Steelers have drafted 2 OLB in the past 3 years in the first round. But other than that, they pulled the trigger on OLB all over the draft. It is the lack of an ability to "hit" on late round OLBs that caused Dupree and Jones to be picked in the first round. Outside of the 1st round, they have pulled the trigger on DBs all over the place as well.

If you are arguing that the Steelers should be drafting DBs in the first round instead of front 7 players, well that is a matter of organizational philosophy - especially when Lebeau was running the defense. Perhaps last year and this year will be the beginning of shift in viewpoint under Butler?

Timmons
Woodley
Worilds
Jones
Shazier
Dupree

So one "bust" in that he can't generate sacks and is basically Arthur Moats - a replacement level OLB. One 10 year stud at ILB, one pass rushing terror before his body decayed, one "meh" pass rusher, an emerging beast in the middle, and one we don't know yet.

I bet most teams in the NFL would trade for that track record at a position group in rounds 1-2 over an 8 year period.

To me, it is more of an organizational focus on front 7 players over CBs. I've termed it the "attempt to repeat the Ike Taylor pick". They seem obsessed with getting a guy in the 3rd-5th round. I don't think it is really because they have a preference for Linebackers so much that they simply feel their zone scheme doesn't need tall, fast, twitchy, man cover CBs. Not certain I agree, but unless they go out of character this year, I don't see it changing for some time.

[steelreserve]

Timmons
Woodley
Worilds
Jones
Shazier
Dupree

I bet most teams in the NFL would trade for that track record at a position group in rounds 1-2 over an 8 year period.


The difference is I don't group the ILBs and OLBs together. We've had VERY different outcomes with those, and they are, at their core, very different positions. ILB is similar to our track record with DL, in that we use high picks infrequently (to the point of frustration among many until we took Shazier, in fact) and tend to get good players.

Even if you do group all the linebackers together, all you get are 3 or 4 good years from Woodley, Shazier who looks good *so far*, then two whiffs and a question mark. And from the Worilds pick forward, two whiffs and a question mark at OLB. I wouldn't take that for five #1 or #2 draft picks, I'd be pissed.




To me, it is more of an organizational focus on front 7 players over CBs. I've termed it the "attempt to repeat the Ike Taylor pick". They seem obsessed with getting a guy in the 3rd-5th round. I don't think it is really because they have a preference for Linebackers so much that they simply feel their zone scheme doesn't need tall, fast, twitchy, man cover CBs. Not certain I agree, but unless they go out of character this year, I don't see it changing for some time.

I think that is exactly right. Without a doubt we are focusing on the front 7, and with OL, DL and ILB we've done pretty well. We used high picks without going overboard and got a good return. OLB seems more like an obsession and DB a reverse obsession, and neither plan is working.

I think this is the one thing where we've got it exactly backwards, to be honest. The DL drives the OLBs' production, so you can, in fact, have success in the pass rush with mid-round types of players. And you don't necessarily need "lockdown" corners, but they do need to be of a certain minimum level that you're not going to find in the fourth round very often. Especially since CBs tend to get overdrafted like crazy these days, so the 4th-round talent you might have gotten with that 4th-round pick in 2001 is now going to be more like a 6th-round talent when you throw a 4th-round pick at the wall today.

I realize that some people are going to take issue with the underlined part above, but it is really something you can argue about all day and no one can prove the other wrong. But look back at the last 5-6 years, and when did our pass rush suck? When the DL sucked. When did it improve? When the DL finally started improving. So let's finish that part of it off. My 2 cents anyway.

[Mojouw]

The difference is I don't group the ILBs and OLBs together. We've had VERY different outcomes with those, and they are, at their core, very different positions. ILB is similar to our track record with DL, in that we use high picks infrequently (to the point of frustration among many until we took Shazier, in fact) and tend to get good players.

Even if you do group all the linebackers together, all you get are 3 or 4 good years from Woodley, Shazier who looks good *so far*, then two whiffs and a question mark. And from the Worilds pick forward, two whiffs and a question mark at OLB. I wouldn't take that for five #1 or #2 draft picks, I'd be pissed.





I think that is exactly right. Without a doubt we are focusing on the front 7, and with OL, DL and ILB we've done pretty well. We used high picks without going overboard and got a good return. OLB seems more like an obsession and DB a reverse obsession, and neither plan is working.

I think this is the one thing where we've got it exactly backwards, to be honest. The DL drives the OLBs' production, so you can, in fact, have success in the pass rush with mid-round types of players. And you don't necessarily need "lockdown" corners, but they do need to be of a certain minimum level that you're not going to find in the fourth round very often. Especially since CBs tend to get overdrafted like crazy these days, so the 4th-round talent you might have gotten with that 4th-round pick in 2001 is now going to be more like a 6th-round talent when you throw a 4th-round pick at the wall today.

I realize that some people are going to take issue with the underlined part above, but it is really something you can argue about all day and no one can prove the other wrong. But look back at the last 5-6 years, and when did our pass rush suck? When the DL sucked. When did it improve? When the DL finally started improving. So let's finish that part of it off. My 2 cents anyway.

I can get that. I would totally support a DL pick on the type of player yourself and others have been advocating for during the past several months. A position flexible anchor to complement Heyward and Tuitt and allow the LBs to roam free a bit more. I don't think they will do it. The Steelers always seem to zig when everyone says they will zag early in the draft. Not sure what it means, but they certainly seem to stack their board in a "unique" manner.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Let me use a different example.

The Vikings had Jake Reed and Chris Carter... and they STILL drafted Randy Moss.

Shazier might be Chris Carter, but Timmons is no longer Jake Reed.


Even if Timmons was... I'd still take Jack (and figure out where to play him during training camp).

its a lot easier to keep 3 receivers like that on the field than 3 ILB's in my opinion

[teegre]

its a lot easier to keep 3 receivers like that on the field than 3 ILB's in my opinion

Well... how about Jack at 58??? :lol:

[teegre]

I'd like to highlight this paragraph:

My thinking was that due to the sheer number of high-quality defensive linemen in this upcoming draft, the odds are that there will be several of them still available at #58. Then, I realized that every other team will likely have that same mindset of waiting until round two to draft a defensive lineman. Extrapolating upon that thought, I queried further: what if every team uses that philosophy, and in turn, not a single team drafts a defensive lineman before 25? Pittsburgh would have their pick of the litter.

[Mojouw]

I'd like to highlight this paragraph:

My thinking was that due to the sheer number of high-quality defensive linemen in this upcoming draft, the odds are that there will be several of them still available at #58. Then, I realized that every other team will likely have that same mindset of waiting until round two to draft a defensive lineman. Extrapolating upon that thought, I queried further: what if every team uses that philosophy, and in turn, not a single team drafts a defensive lineman before 25? Pittsburgh would have their pick of the litter.

Extending that logic, what if the Steelers get Burns, a DT/DE, and a safety in the first 3-4 rounds? Is this still a bad draft? I need to know. I need the hottest of takes right now!

[teegre]

Extending that logic, what if the Steelers get Burns, a DT/DE, and a safety in the first 3-4 rounds? Is this still a bad draft? I need to know. I need the hottest of takes right now!

Let me say this...

If they get Hargraves and a SS, you could draft punters with the final four picks**.


(Credit to SteelersCanada for that line.)

[Mojouw]

Let me say this...

If they get Hargraves and a SS, you could draft punters with the final four picks**.


(Credit to SteelersCanada for that line.)

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

[teegre]

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

Done.

I'll call Paul DePodesta.

[Psycho Ward 86]

Burns
Hargreaves
Killebrew

They can just give the remaining picks to the Browns for all I care.

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

[Mojouw]

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

Forgot about him. Done.

[teegre]

Ill take Justin Simmons over Killebrew

If so, I'd love to move Mitchell to SS.

[Psycho Ward 86]

If so, I'd love to move Mitchell to SS.

thats the idea :)