1st-Round Pick Should Make Impact. NT Can't

[polamalubeast]

Good morning,

Yes, that is snow on the ground in Pittsburgh on April 8. Let’s play two while we figure out who the Steelers will draft in three weeks:

--- They are meeting with a gaggle of defensive backs in their run-up to the draft. Perhaps they will shuck tradition and not draft a linebacker in the first round this year and go for a cornerback for the first time since 1997.

--- Kevin Colbert always insists that when you draft a player in the first round you are looking for someone to not only start but make an impact. Drafting a nose tackle, then, does not fill that bill because this is not 2001 when they drafted Casey Hampton and playing 30-35 percent of the time does not allow for someone to make much of an impact. And you do not use a first-round pick to spell either of their two defensive ends, one they consider a star in Cam Heyward and the other a future star in Stephon Tuitt.



read more

http://sportsblogs.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers-steelers-blog/2016/04/08/1st-Round-Pick-Should-Make-Impact-NT-Can-t/stories/201604080001

[Born2Steel]

That article seemed to run all over the place. Some valid points about 1st round drafting strategy. Although, a NT would not be a 30% player or just to back up Heyward and Tuitt. The push for a NT/DT/DE is for a full rotation player. OLB is a great point because we will lose James, and JJ after this season, most likely. I think that if Apple, or Jackson III fall to 25, that will be the pick. Safety in a later round. It's wait and see who is still on the board at pick 25 of course, but my thinking is DL is the most likely pick.

[steelreserve]

People who make that argument are trying to say "I am savvy because I know that the game has evolved," but what they are really saying is, "I don't understand what the role of the nose tackle is anymore, because I am still stuck in 2001."

No, dumbass, the people who want a nose tackle are not asking for a guy who is on the field 30% of the time to only stop the run. Everyone knows that's stupid.

What they are asking for is a third defensive lineman who is good and can disrupt plays while being on the field 65% or 75% of the time. There is no reason why a defensive tackle can't fill that role, except that it's extremely hard to do, so the players are harder to find. You can't really have a formation with three defensive ends, so where does that leave you, ba-durr.

2001 Casey Hampton would not be on the field 30% of the time to play the run. That kind of player is more useful than that. Out-of-gas 2011 Casey Hampton, or below-average Steve McLendon would be the kind of nose tackle he is talking about. Not having a good one for nearly a decade seems to make people forget what it's like to have a player who can succeed in that role, and apparently even what the role is supposed to be.

[Dwinsgames]

https://s.yimg.com/fz/api/res/1.2/tNWGxMBqZ5ek0.etdm1q4g--/YXBwaWQ9c3JjaGRkO2g9MzAwO3E9OTU7dz0zMDA-/http://xfinity.comcast.net/blogs/tv/files/2010/07/simon-rolls-eyes-got-talent.jpg

the pic is in response to the article not the post above as I agree with that post

[SteelMember]

I would think a NT could have more impact as a rookie because there's gotta be less of a learning curve for the position... giving him more opportunity to utilize raw skills and see the field sooner. You know, even 1st round talents at other positions rarely see the field in any capacity for the first half of the season, let alone make an impact.

[Born2Steel]

:rockon:
I would think a NT could have more impact as a rookie because there's gotta be less of a learning curve for the position... giving him more opportunity to utilize raw skills and see the field sooner. You know, even 1st round talents at other positions rarely see the field in any capacity for the first half of the season, let alone make an impact.

[Shoes]

Billings R1, trade up for Joseph R2. Give them both R7 picks and clean out the trash bin in giving them Mike Adams & Cortez Allen. Fire Bullchette and hire Alex!

[BlackAndGold]

Bullshit, I mean Bouchette probably has no idea who Billings is, nor what type of talent he brings. He's not some zero technique who brings no pass rush. He can play all across the line and rush the passer.

I don't see a rookie CB playing over Cockrell, Golson, Gay. The CB position has more potential upside then it did this time last year.

From all the pre-draft visits so far, it's more likely they take another mid round CB.

You put Billings on the line along with Tuitt, Heyward, Dupree and let those four get after the QB.

[Born2Steel]

Bullshit, I mean Bouchette probably has no idea who Billings is, nor what type of talent he brings. He's not some zero technique who brings no pass rush. He can play all across the line and rush the passer.

I don't see a rookie CB playing over Cockrell, Golson, Gay. The CB position has more potential upside then it did this time last year.

From all the pre-draft visits so far, it's more likely they take another mid round CB.

You put Billings on the line along with Tuitt, Heyward, Dupree and let those four get after the QB.

Agreed.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Bullshit, I mean Bouchette probably has no idea who Billings is, nor what type of talent he brings. He's not some zero technique who brings no pass rush. He can play all across the line and rush the passer.

You put Billings on the line along with Tuitt, Heyward, Dupree and let those four get after the QB.

Billings would be our starting NT in the 3-4 and would also be a starting interior pass rusher in the scenario described above.

as a result he would be on the field a lot and would definitely be able to make an impact...

[tube517]

Bulchitte is only concerned about being grouchy on his weekly chats. He has mailed it in for along time now.

Sent from my LG-H631 using Tapatalk

[Psycho Ward 86]

People who make that argument are trying to say "I am savvy because I know that the game has evolved," but what they are really saying is, "I don't understand what the role of the nose tackle is anymore, because I am still stuck in 2001."

No, dumbass, the people who want a nose tackle are not asking for a guy who is on the field 30% of the time to only stop the run. Everyone knows that's stupid.

What they are asking for is a third defensive lineman who is good and can disrupt plays while being on the field 65% or 75% of the time. There is no reason why a defensive tackle can't fill that role, except that it's extremely hard to do, so the players are harder to find. You can't really have a formation with three defensive ends, so where does that leave you, ba-durr.

2001 Casey Hampton would not be on the field 30% of the time to play the run. That kind of player is more useful than that. Out-of-gas 2011 Casey Hampton, or below-average Steve McLendon would be the kind of nose tackle he is talking about. Not having a good one for nearly a decade seems to make people forget what it's like to have a player who can succeed in that role, and apparently even what the role is supposed to be.

i think you're getting a little obssessed with these socially constructed positions. not the first time the line between multiple positions has been blurred over time. Hell, full back and tight end used to be separate positions. Then the redskins invented the H-back to help combat LT. It wasnt that critical for your bell cow back to be a good receiving option until the late 2000's. Hell, nowadays you have RB's who swing out in the slot like jamaal charles and leveon bell. Deone Buchannon, Mark Barron, Kam Chancellor are all fringe LB/S's. Same type of thing is happening at NT/DT/DE. Time to start dropping the word "nose tackle" a little bit less in these evaluations

[pczach]

Buchette is such a disappointment. He should know better than that. Now, maybe the Steelers really believe McCullers is going to explode this year, and there is no need for a NT high in the draft. Maybe......but unless they really believe that to be true, the lack of depth at the DL position makes a swing player that can line up at NT, DT in a four man front, or DE in a 3-4 or 4-3 when spelling Heyward and Tuitt.....a priority.

I don't know when they'll draft a defensive lineman in this draft, but to say that drafting a NT would be a mistake because they aren't on the field enough is just ignorant of the type of player that they would be looking at with a first round pick at that position in the current climate of the NFL.

This guy makes a living covering football. His complete lack of understanding of some things and his stupid comments about other things really aggravates me.

[steelreserve]

i think you're getting a little obssessed with these socially constructed positions. not the first time the line between multiple positions has been blurred over time. Hell, full back and tight end used to be separate positions. Then the redskins invented the H-back to help combat LT. It wasnt that critical for your bell cow back to be a good receiving option until the late 2000's. Hell, nowadays you have RB's who swing out in the slot like jamaal charles and leveon bell. Deone Buchannon, Mark Barron, Kam Chancellor are all fringe LB/S's. Same type of thing is happening at NT/DT/DE. Time to start dropping the word "nose tackle" a little bit less in these evaluations

You have basically repeated the exact same thing that I was saying. A "nose tackle" today is nothing more than another defensive lineman who does much the same job as the others, but needs to be slightly bigger and stronger because of where he lines up. It's still an important distinction to make because many ends do not have the ability to do that naturally as an interior lineman. But yes, you are looking for a very similar type of athlete with only slight variations in their skill set.

Contrary to what you're saying, I think the ones who are "obsessed" with the position label are the ones like Bouchette who are stuck on the definition of a "traditional" nose tackle from 20 years ago and use that to try to talk down to people. Clearly that is not the same thing as what makes a good defensive tackle today. The "modern" nose tackle is going to be good enough to play all three positions on the line, and will probably be its most impressive athlete, not simply a fat person. It is still not completely interchangeable, though, because switching from DE to DT does not necessarily go both ways.

[Psycho Ward 86]

You have basically repeated the exact same thing that I was saying. A "nose tackle" today is nothing more than another defensive lineman who does much the same job as the others, but needs to be slightly bigger and stronger because of where he lines up. It's still an important distinction to make because many ends do not have the ability to do that naturally as an interior lineman. But yes, you are looking for a very similar type of athlete with only slight variations in their skill set.

Contrary to what you're saying, I think the ones who are "obsessed" with the position label are the ones like Bouchette who are stuck on the definition of a "traditional" nose tackle from 20 years ago and use that to try to talk down to people. Clearly that is not the same thing as what makes a good defensive tackle today. The "modern" nose tackle is going to be good enough to play all three positions on the line, and will probably be its most impressive athlete, not simply a fat person. It is still not completely interchangeable, though, because switching from DE to DT does not necessarily go both ways.


"You can't really have a formation with three defensive ends, so where does that leave you, ba-durr."

this is the line that confused me and seemed to insinuate that our "3rd" starting DL had to be defined succinctly

[hawaiiansteeler]

Steelers brought in NT Javon Hargrave for a visit today:

Steelers Visit With Four More Defensive Players On Friday

BY DAVE BRYAN APRIL 8, 2016

The Pittsburgh Steelers were busy entertaining four more pre-draft visitors on Friday and today’s list included three defensive lineman and another defensive back.

Maryland defensive end Quinton Jefferson, South Carolina State defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, Northwestern defensive end Dean Lowry and Mississippi safety Trae Elston all visited with the Steelers on Friday.

Hargrave, who measures in at 6-1, 309-pounds, had 59 tackles, 22 tackles for loss and 13.5 sacks in 2015, along with 11 quarterback hits. Steelers defensive line coach John Mitchell was present for Hargrave’s March pro day as well.

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/04/steelers-visit-four-defensive-players-friday/

[steelreserve]

"You can't really have a formation with three defensive ends, so where does that leave you, ba-durr."

this is the line that confused me and seemed to insinuate that our "3rd" starting DL had to be defined succinctly


I meant that someone has to line up on the inside no matter what, unless you want to leave it completely undefended.

Naturally, I think that a bigger and more powerful guy is going to do that better, but we are talking about a 330-pound guy who moves like a 280-pound guy, not a completely different skill set if that makes sense.

[teegre]

"You can't really have a formation with three defensive ends, so where does that leave you, ba-durr."

this is the line that confused me and seemed to insinuate that our "3rd" starting DL had to be defined succinctly

Yep... that's the line that's dumbest (amongst a sea of dumb).

Heyward can and has played the nose. :doh:

[steelreserve]

Yep... that's the line that's dumbest (amongst a sea of dumb).

Heyward can and has played the nose. :doh:


Read the post directly above yours. It was about where they line up in the formation, not what their "natural" position is. In other words, no matter what formation you are in, you are going to have at least one player lined up as an interior lineman. You can have three defensive ends in the game, but by definition, they can't all be playing defensive end at the same time. Whole point of that sentence.

[teegre]

Read the post directly above yours. It was about where they line up in the formation, not what their "natural" position is. In other words, no matter what formation you are in, you are going to have at least one player lined up as an interior lineman. You can have three defensive ends in the game, but by definition, they can't all be playing defensive end at the same time. Whole point of that sentence.

My bad. I wasn't reading close enough. I thought that was a line from Bouchette's article (I stopped reading after paragraph 3).

You & & I are pretty much in agreement. Chalk that up to me not actually reading this thread (I just jumped in to take a stab at Ed. :lol: )

[steelreserve]

My bad. I wasn't reading close enough. I thought that was a line from Bouchette's article (I stopped reading after paragraph 3).

You & & I are pretty much in agreement. Chalk that up to me not actually reading this thread (I just jumped in to take a stab at Ed. :lol: )


Yeah - and when he mails it in like that, he deserves it, that shitty fox.

[st33lersguy]

I think this is dumb. A nose tackle that can rush the passer can certainly have an impact on a game in today's NFL.

[Shoes]

A Statistical Look At Why The Steelers Should Consider A First Round Defensive Lineman

BY DAVE BRYAN (http://www.steelersdepot.com/author/davebryan/)APRIL 8, 2016 AT 03:58 PM

There’s been a lot of talk recently about whether or not the Pittsburgh Steelers should spend their first round draft pick on defensive lineman this year as it relates to the number of snaps that player might wind up playing and I’m proud to say that Alex Kozora and I are mainly responsible for that. In this post, I will attempt to show why the Steelers should indeed go the route of defensive lineman in the first round and more specifically, why such a player should also be able to nose tackle in the team’s base 3-4 defense.
For starters, let’s start with the fact that Steve McLendon and Cam Thomas are both no longer in Pittsburgh. Their exits leave Daniel McCullers as the lone nose tackle who would figure to start at nose tackle in 2016 in the team’s base 3-4 defense. Now, I don’t know how comfortable you are with that, but I’ll tell you that I’m certainly worried about that.
For the sake of the argument, let’s assume that McCullers can handle that base 3-4 role in 2016 just as McLendon did. Moving forward, one would hope that McCullers would also be able to give the Steelers some level snaps in 2016 as a defensive tackle in the team’s sub packages. There is, however, no real proof that McCullers can function in such role effectively based on what we saw last year, which I must remind you was his second year in the league. To back that up, McCullers was only allowed to play 24 non-penalty snaps last season in the Steelers sub packages and as I pointed out in a previous post, most of those snaps were meaningless.

Next, let’s take a look at the workload that Steelers defensive ends Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt both had last season. For starters, the two combined to play 83.3% of all possible defensive snaps during the 2015 regular season and that includes all penalty plays. To put that combined playing time into perspective, I have compiled the top two snap-getters of every team’s defensive linemen from last season and calculated the total percentages. You can see these listed in the two tables below.

As you can see, the duo of Heyward and Tuitt finished tied for 5th in the league with the New York Jetswhen it comes to these total snaps of team’s top two defensive linemen snap-getters. Now, keep in mind that Tuitt missed two-plus games with a knee injury last season and thus had he played in every game, the Steelers would have likely led the league in this statistical category.
Additionally, as far as the compiled data below goes, I want you to note how many of these duos include at least one defensive end that plays in a more traditional front. In other words, most of those players are essentially edge rushers much in the same way that the Steelers use their outside linebackers. This was definitely the case with Buffalo Bills top two defensive linemen, Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes.
The preface of all of this data is to show that the Steelers need to lighten the load some in 2016 on Heyward and Tuitt and I’m willing to bet the team agrees with that assessment.
Now, when it comes to the Steelers defensive linemen last season as it relates to snaps played in their sub packages that included only two defensive linemen being on the field in those situations, Heyward played 659 of a possible 756 non-penalty snaps that match the aforementioned criteria. Tuitt, on the other hand, played 590 of a possible 756 snaps and that’s even with him missing two-plus games.
The two were on the field together for a total of 540 of a possible 756 snaps last season which equates to 71.4%. Assuming both are able to hit that same total percentage again in 2016, that leaves 28.6% of all sub package snaps that the Steelers will need to have other defensive linemen play. Remember, those 756 total sub package snaps last season do not include plays that were wiped out by penalties. So in essence, the Steelers will need to find players who can absorb roughly 30% of all sub package snaps played in 2016.
Who can play those snaps now that McLendon and Thomas are now both gone? McCullers? New free agent defensive end Ricardo Mathews? Last year’s sixth-round draft pick L.T. Walton? 2015 practice squader Caushaud Lyons? If you are comfortable with all four of those players helping out in 2016 when it comes to playing those remaining snaps, then, no, the Steelers probably shouldn’t invest a first-round draft pick in a defensive lineman this year.

If, however, you aren’t comfortable with those players, then the Steelers should seriously consider spending a first-round draft pick on a defensive lineman this year who can not only help absorb a good portion of those snaps, but also start at nose tackle in the team’s base 3-4 defense as well.
Personally, I’m not comfortable with McCullers, Mathews, Walton and Lyons playing a ton of sub package snaps in 2016. Why should I be?
Now, an argument can be made that this year’s draft class is deep when it comes to defensive linemen and thus that the Steelers can wait a few rounds before addressing the position. However, when it comes to defensive linemen in this year’s class that can not only play as a 3-4 nose tackle in addition to being able to play as a pass rusher in sub packages, that list of players figures to get real thin very quickly after the first round is completed.
http://www.steelersdepot.com/2016/04/statistical-look-steelers-consider-first-round-defensive-lineman/

[86WARD]

Billings R1, trade up for Joseph R2. Give them both R7 picks and clean out the trash bin in giving them Mike Adams & Cortez Allen. Fire Bullchette and hire Alex!

Alex isn't much better with his love for Dri Archer and Danny Smith...just saying...a writer is a "writer"...lol...

[hawaiiansteeler]

I meant that someone has to line up on the inside no matter what, unless you want to leave it completely undefended.

Naturally, I think that a bigger and more powerful guy is going to do that better, but we are talking about a 330-pound guy who moves like a 280-pound guy, not a completely different skill set if that makes sense.

which 330-pound guy are you referring to?

[GBMelBlount]

I would like DL in the 1st round.

Value should be exceptional at a huge position of need and creating the pressure and disruption we don't have now is like an upgrade to the entire secondary.

[hawaiiansteeler]

Two weeks out mock draft

by Dale Lolley

Here’s my latest mock two weeks out from the big party:

1. Dallas, trade with Tennessee, Jared Goff, QB, California: One of the big rumors out there is that the Cowboys really want to acquire a successor to Tony Romo. If they stay at No. 4, that might not happen.

2. Cleveland, Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State: The Browns are said to be torn between Goff and Wentz. I don’t believe it. Goff, to me, is a much better prospect.

3. San Diego, Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi: The Chargers have messed around long enough without a decent blindside protector for Philip Rivers. Now, they get a good one.

4. Tennessee, trade with Dallas, Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida: Is he a corner or safety? Doesn’t matter. The Titans need both.

5. Jacksonville, Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA: The Jaguars just need playmakers on defense to go along with their good young offense.

6. Baltimore, Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State: Bosa or DeForest Bruckner? Bosa just seems like the kind of value player the Ravens take.

7. San Francisco, Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis: This is way too high for Lynch, but the 49ers, unable to move up into the top 2, reach because they have nothing on the roster Chip Kelly likes at the position.

8. Philadelphia, Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame: Many are putting Ezekiel Elliott in this spot. But running backs can be had later. A franchise left tackle cannot.

9. Tampa Bay, DeForest Bruckner, DE, Oregon: Cornerback would seem to be the biggest need, but Bruckner fills one as well.

10. N.Y. Giants, Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State: The Giants have been searching for Tiki Barber’s replacement for years.

11. Chicago, William Jackson, CB, Houston: The Bears could go a number of directions, but they go corner here.

12. New Orleans, Sheldon Rankin, DT, Louisville: The Saints need to get more stout up front.

13. Miami, Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida: The Dolphins need corner help and stay in state to get it.

14. Oakland, Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State: The Raiders brought in Sean Smith in free agency and get another rangy corner to pair with him.

15. L.A. Rams, Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi: The Rams have swung and missed a number of times at the receiver position. But Treadwell could end that.

16. Detroit, Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State: The Lions need a blindside protector for Matthew Stafford.

17. Atlanta, Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson: The Falcons grabbed Vic Beasley last season in the first round. They bring in his former backup this year.

18. Indianapolis, Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State: The Colts need offensive line help, but Lee is too goo of a value pick to pass on.

19. Buffalo, Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama: The Bills could actually upgrade at any of their linebacker positions. But Rex Ryan loves take charge inside backers.

20. N.Y. Jets, Leonard Floyd, Edge Rusher, Georgia: The Jets need to improve their outside pass rush.

21. Washington, Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor: The Redskins need to improve their run defense and pass rush. Billings could do both.

22. Houston, Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor: The Texans add a little hometown talent and much-needed offensive speed.

23. Minnesota, Josh Doctson, WR, TCU: The Vikings have to give Teddy Bridgewater more weapons.

24. Cincinnati, Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi: The Bengals haven’t shied away from talented but troubled players in the past. They don’t here, either.

25. Pittsburgh, A’Shawn Robinson, NT, Alabama: Robinson doesn’t have the pass rush skills of some of the guys ahead of him on this list, but he’s stout and just turned 22 last month. With all of the corners gone and no safeties having the value of Robinson, the Steelers go defensive line here.

26. Seattle, Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State: Whitehair is an athletic guard for an offense that needs athletes in front of Russell Wilson.

27. Green Bay, Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama: The Packers have a big hole in the middle of their defense that Reed will more than fill.

28. Kansas City, Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky: The Chiefs need somebody to replace Justin Houston this season and Tamba Hali down the road. Spence has red flags, but he can rush the passer.

29. New England, Forfeited

30. Arizona, Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State: The Cardinals have a solid defense and add another big body to the mix.

31. Carolina, Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State: The Super Bowl showed that the Panthers need to do a better job of protecting Cam Newton. Michael Oher? Please.

32. Denver, Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State: Still unable to deal for a QB, the Broncos have to take one. Mark Sanchez isn’t the future.

http://www.observer-reporter.com/20160412/two_weeks_out_mock_draft#.Vw240Gymnb4.twitter

[Mojouw]

That's got some logic to it, but why draft a guy in the first round with no pass rush skills? Particularly if you assume that any team is in pass rush mode on defense 60+% of the time?

[SteelMember]

Two weeks out mock draft

by Dale Lolley

Here’s my latest mock two weeks out from the big party:

1. Dallas, trade with Tennessee, Jared Goff, QB, California: One of the big rumors out there is that the Cowboys really want to acquire a successor to Tony Romo. If they stay at No. 4, that might not happen.

2. Cleveland, Carson Wentz, QB, North Dakota State: The Browns are said to be torn between Goff and Wentz. I don’t believe it. Goff, to me, is a much better prospect.

3. San Diego, Laremy Tunsil, OT, Mississippi: The Chargers have messed around long enough without a decent blindside protector for Philip Rivers. Now, they get a good one.

4. Tennessee, trade with Dallas, Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida: Is he a corner or safety? Doesn’t matter. The Titans need both.

5. Jacksonville, Myles Jack, OLB, UCLA: The Jaguars just need playmakers on defense to go along with their good young offense.

6. Baltimore, Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State: Bosa or DeForest Bruckner? Bosa just seems like the kind of value player the Ravens take.

7. San Francisco, Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis: This is way too high for Lynch, but the 49ers, unable to move up into the top 2, reach because they have nothing on the roster Chip Kelly likes at the position.

8. Philadelphia, Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame: Many are putting Ezekiel Elliott in this spot. But running backs can be had later. A franchise left tackle cannot.

9. Tampa Bay, DeForest Bruckner, DE, Oregon: Cornerback would seem to be the biggest need, but Bruckner fills one as well.

10. N.Y. Giants, Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State: The Giants have been searching for Tiki Barber’s replacement for years.

11. Chicago, William Jackson, CB, Houston: The Bears could go a number of directions, but they go corner here.

12. New Orleans, Sheldon Rankin, DT, Louisville: The Saints need to get more stout up front.

13. Miami, Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Florida: The Dolphins need corner help and stay in state to get it.

14. Oakland, Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State: The Raiders brought in Sean Smith in free agency and get another rangy corner to pair with him.

15. L.A. Rams, Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi: The Rams have swung and missed a number of times at the receiver position. But Treadwell could end that.

16. Detroit, Jack Conklin, OT, Michigan State: The Lions need a blindside protector for Matthew Stafford.

17. Atlanta, Shaq Lawson, DE, Clemson: The Falcons grabbed Vic Beasley last season in the first round. They bring in his former backup this year.

18. Indianapolis, Darron Lee, OLB, Ohio State: The Colts need offensive line help, but Lee is too goo of a value pick to pass on.

19. Buffalo, Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama: The Bills could actually upgrade at any of their linebacker positions. But Rex Ryan loves take charge inside backers.

20. N.Y. Jets, Leonard Floyd, Edge Rusher, Georgia: The Jets need to improve their outside pass rush.

21. Washington, Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor: The Redskins need to improve their run defense and pass rush. Billings could do both.

22. Houston, Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor: The Texans add a little hometown talent and much-needed offensive speed.

23. Minnesota, Josh Doctson, WR, TCU: The Vikings have to give Teddy Bridgewater more weapons.

24. Cincinnati, Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Mississippi: The Bengals haven’t shied away from talented but troubled players in the past. They don’t here, either.

25. Pittsburgh, A’Shawn Robinson, NT, Alabama: Robinson doesn’t have the pass rush skills of some of the guys ahead of him on this list, but he’s stout and just turned 22 last month. With all of the corners gone and no safeties having the value of Robinson, the Steelers go defensive line here.

26. Seattle, Cody Whitehair, G, Kansas State: Whitehair is an athletic guard for an offense that needs athletes in front of Russell Wilson.

27. Green Bay, Jarran Reed, DT, Alabama: The Packers have a big hole in the middle of their defense that Reed will more than fill.

28. Kansas City, Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky: The Chiefs need somebody to replace Justin Houston this season and Tamba Hali down the road. Spence has red flags, but he can rush the passer.

29. New England, Forfeited

30. Arizona, Emmanuel Ogbah, DE, Oklahoma State: The Cardinals have a solid defense and add another big body to the mix.

31. Carolina, Taylor Decker, OT, Ohio State: The Super Bowl showed that the Panthers need to do a better job of protecting Cam Newton. Michael Oher? Please.

32. Denver, Connor Cook, QB, Michigan State: Still unable to deal for a QB, the Broncos have to take one. Mark Sanchez isn’t the future.

http://www.observer-reporter.com/20160412/two_weeks_out_mock_draft#.Vw240Gymnb4.twitter

Guess Dale forgot about Mackensie Alexander. I think he will be in the 1st round mix.

[Mojouw]

So who does make an impact in the first round of the draft? Limiting it to 2010-2015 and only DB, DL, and LB we can generate the following list, sorted on Career Value.

http://pfref.com/tiny/XeQsN

So along the DL - you need to be able to rush the passer to get high on the list
DB - safeties return more value than CBs
LB/DE - rush the passer - make an impact.

So I figure that if the Steelers want "value" at the pick in the first - it is generally what has been said around here with one major exception. No CB unless the guy is a sure-fire Revis or Peterson 2.0. Best ROI is from Edge rushers and safeties. Hmmmmm.......

[steelreserve]

So who does make an impact in the first round of the draft? Limiting it to 2010-2015 and only DB, DL, and LB we can generate the following list, sorted on Career Value.

http://pfref.com/tiny/XeQsN

So along the DL - you need to be able to rush the passer to get high on the list
DB - safeties return more value than CBs
LB/DE - rush the passer - make an impact.

So I figure that if the Steelers want "value" at the pick in the first - it is generally what has been said around here with one major exception. No CB unless the guy is a sure-fire Revis or Peterson 2.0. Best ROI is from Edge rushers and safeties. Hmmmmm.......


Yeah, there is really no place in the NFL anymore for a defensive lineman who does not generate pressure, or at least directly cause pressure to be generated by others. So it goes without saying that's the kind of DL prospect we would have to be looking for.

Of course, the thing that also has to be accounted for is how good the available players are and who you have on your roster already. That's the major problem with a one-size-fits all scorecard like that. For a team that typically finishes with a draft pick in the high teens to high twenties, there are never any can't-miss DBs available when we pick, nor are there many DTs who can generate pressure. So strictly by the formula, our next decade should go:

2016 - edge rusher
2017 - edge rusher
2018 - edge rusher
2019 - edge rusher
2020 - edge rusher
(Ben retires)
2021 - quarterback
2022 - edge rusher
2023 - edge rusher
2024 - quarterback because the first one sucked
2025 - edge rusher

The "BPA" (quotes intentional) at picks 18-30 is nearly always an edge rusher - but it's not a can't-miss edge rusher, it's a coin-flip edge rusher. So either you can spam edge rushers year after year, or recognize that positional value does not exist in a vacuum and hopefully adjust your plans for that. CB might be more "valuable" than safety, and edge rusher might be more "valuable" than DT - but if your cornerbacks suck, replacing a shitty one with an average CB will have more net positive effect than replacing an OK safety with a slightly better one, and likewise replacing a mediocre OLB with another mediocre OLB will do less than adding a good DT where you literally had no one at all.

[Mojouw]

Yeah, there is really no place in the NFL anymore for a defensive lineman who does not generate pressure, or at least directly cause pressure to be generated by others. So it goes without saying that's the kind of DL prospect we would have to be looking for.

Of course, the thing that also has to be accounted for is how good the available players are and who you have on your roster already. That's the major problem with a one-size-fits all scorecard like that. For a team that typically finishes with a draft pick in the high teens to high twenties, there are never any can't-miss DBs available when we pick, nor are there many DTs who can generate pressure. So strictly by the formula, our next decade should go:

2016 - edge rusher
2017 - edge rusher
2018 - edge rusher
2019 - edge rusher
2020 - edge rusher
(Ben retires)
2021 - quarterback
2022 - edge rusher
2023 - edge rusher
2024 - quarterback because the first one sucked
2025 - edge rusher

The "BPA" (quotes intentional) at picks 18-30 is nearly always an edge rusher - but it's not a can't-miss edge rusher, it's a coin-flip edge rusher. So either you can spam edge rushers year after year, or recognize that positional value does not exist in a vacuum and hopefully adjust your plans for that. CB might be more "valuable" than safety, and edge rusher might be more "valuable" than DT - but if your cornerbacks suck, replacing a shitty one with an average CB will have more net positive effect than replacing an OK safety with a slightly better one, and likewise replacing a mediocre OLB with another mediocre OLB will do less than adding a good DT where you literally had no one at all.

All fair points. But I think it does raise the question of where you're break points are in a given draft class.

If after 2-3 prospects at CB the talent/value falls off a cliff and you are picking 20 something, then don't take a CB just because your roster has a "hole" there. Maybe take a FS and play more "big" nickel packages?

Long story short, the more I think about, the more I think another bad-ass DE is more "valuable" than a DT. And safety may be more impactful than CB. That being said, I wanted Peters last year and if someone can tell me that one of the CBs available when the Steelers pick has that kind of talent - then great! But this year's corner class seems to be folks trying to talk themselves into some of these dudes being good.

[steelreserve]

All fair points. But I think it does raise the question of where you're break points are in a given draft class.

If after 2-3 prospects at CB the talent/value falls off a cliff and you are picking 20 something, then don't take a CB just because your roster has a "hole" there. Maybe take a FS and play more "big" nickel packages?

Long story short, the more I think about, the more I think another bad-ass DE is more "valuable" than a DT. And safety may be more impactful than CB. That being said, I wanted Peters last year and if someone can tell me that one of the CBs available when the Steelers pick has that kind of talent - then great! But this year's corner class seems to be folks trying to talk themselves into some of these dudes being good.


For this draft, I think that's exactly right. There are basically 3 CBs worthy of a #1 pick and one borderline guy, and historically, odds are not very good that any of them makes it to us. If a good player is just not there, then he's not there. The middle rounds are kind of shaping up so that there are a half-dozen or so CBs who *might* turn out to be decent in the NFL, but the price for us will probably be a R2 pick to choose from the bottom half of those. And there will probably be better players available at safety or DL at that point.

The DE vs. DT debate is kind of a background issue, since getting a good player in either role is going to help. BUT, if we can get a guy who can play DT and DE, instead of only DE - without sacrificing talent - then that versatility is going to help us a lot. And for that position, I think the need is amplified just like it is with DB - only the players ARE most definitely there.

[86WARD]

I would be disappointed with that pick.

[polamalubeast]

Drafting a nose tackle early likely not a logical decision in this age of game


http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/steelers/2016/04/25/Drafting-a-nose-tackle-early-likely-not-a-logical-decision-in-this-age-of-game/stories/201604250012

[fansince'76]

Guess Bullchitte doesn't mind having absolutely nothing behind Tuitt and Heyward either...

[steelreserve]

At least he acknowledges toward the bottom that there is such a thing as a "modern" nose tackle, which is to say not just a lumbering fat guy who defends the run, but a guy who also creates disruption on his own. That's always been the best kind of nose tackle to have anyway, and in case Ed didn't notice, the kind of NT that's been successful for us.

That's the kind of player Hampton was at the start of his career, and when he lost the ability to do that, guess what, that's when he started coming out on two-thirds of the plays. Steve McLendon could never generate any pressure or disruption, which is why he was next to useless. So yeah, while there's no value to an old-school run-stuffing NT, that's not what anyone is looking for, and there is still PUH-LENTY of value in a guy like Billings or Butler.

[polamalubeast]

724633481586696192

[Born2Steel]

At least he acknowledges toward the bottom that there is such a thing as a "modern" nose tackle, which is to say not just a lumbering fat guy who defends the run, but a guy who also creates disruption on his own. That's always been the best kind of nose tackle to have anyway, and in case Ed didn't notice, the kind of NT that's been successful for us.

That's the kind of player Hampton was at the start of his career, and when he lost the ability to do that, guess what, that's when he started coming out on two-thirds of the plays. Steve McLendon could never generate any pressure or disruption, which is why he was next to useless. So yeah, while there's no value to an old-school run-stuffing NT, that's not what anyone is looking for, and there is still PUH-LENTY of value in a guy like Billings or Butler.

For all of his 'everything else', Warren Sapp was great at that.

[steelreserve]

For all of his 'everything else', Warren Sapp was great at that.


Yeah, there's no doubt Sapp was a great player; he was just an asshole. A lot of people don't make the distinction.